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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Layered supramolecular hydrogels from thioglycosides

Low molecular weight hydrogels are made of small molecules that aggregate via noncovalent interactions. Here, comprehensive characterization of the physical and chemical properties of hydrogels made from thioglycolipids of the disaccharides lactose and cellobiose with simple alkyl chains is reported. While thiolactoside hydrogels are robust, thiocellobioside gels are metastable, precipitating over time into fibrous crystals that can be entangled to create pseudo-hydrogels. Rheology confirms the viscoelastic solid nature of these hydrogels with storage moduli ranging from 10–600 kPa. Additionally, thiolactoside hydrogels are thixotropic which is a desirable property for many potential applications. Freeze-fracture electron microscopy of xerogels shows layers of stacked sheets that are entangled into networks. These structures are unique compared to the fibers or ribbons typically reported for hydrogels. Differential scanning calorimetry provides gel-to-liquid phase transition temperatures ranging from 30 to 80 °C. Prodan fluorescence spectroscopy allows assignment of phase transitions in the gels and other lyotropic phases of high concentration samples. Phase diagrams are estimated for all hydrogels at 1–10 wt% from 5 to ≥ 80 °C. In conclusion, these hydrogels represent a series of interesting materials with unique properties that make them attractive for numerous potential applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Microstructure Anisotropy Effects on Fracture and Fatigue Mechanisms in Shape Memory Alloy Martensites

The chief scientific object was to investigate the fatigue and fracture mechanisms in NiTi shape memory alloys, in the presence of stress concentrating factors such as micro-pores and notches. In particular, the interactions between structure (factors related to the geometry of the specimen, such as holes, pores and notches) and microstructure (related to properties of the material such as grains, secondary phases, twins) in influencing the inelastic deformation, leading up to fracture in NiTi was examined. Primarily, there were two major thrusts. The first thrust focused on fracture behavior in Shape Memory Alloys where the high crystal symmetry cubic phase transformed into the low symmetry phase during deformation and propagation of cracks. This thrust revealed the interplay between size of micro-pores, size of grains and grain orientations in determining the resistance to crack growth, during cyclic tensile deformation of porous-like NiTi specimens. The role of secondary phases (impurities of Ti, often formed during fabrication) were also shown to induce local inelastic deformation gradients during tensile deformation and reduce overall extent of deformation. The second thrust focused on the fatigue and fracture behavior in the low crystal symmetry martensite phase. Unlike high symmetry phases, characterization of deformation in low symmetry phases such as martensitic NiTi has been challenging, due to a hierarchical microstructure spanning from nanoscale twins to the macroscale, a highly anisotropic microstructure stemming from the low crystal symmetry and a multitude of inelastic mechanisms for deformation. Thus, advanced X-ray techniques such as 3D high-energy diffraction microscopy and x-ray micro-Laue diffraction and spectroscopy were used in conjunction with traditional techniques such as SEM and TEM to understand the inelastic deformation in the martensite phase in NiTi, in the presence of notches. This thrust revealed a stark difference in deformation mechanisms based on the nature of stress: regions near the notch experience a highly triaxial stress while those far away experience a uniaxial stress. Additionally, while regions close to the notch were shown to deform locally by amorphization/nanocrystallization, ultimately leading to fracture, regions far away from the notch deformed in a more traditional manner, with detwinning and twin reorientation the primary mechanisms of deformation. More importantly, this thrust revealed that in the presence of structural factors such as notches, the traditional picture of reorientation (coalescence) of nanoscale martensite twins into increasingly larger domains with increased loading does not hold true, even up to fracture of the specimen. These conclusions will inform the modeling and understanding of deformation behavior of specimens, where structure and microstructure coexist and interact.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atomistic modeling of tensile deformation and fracture of carbon fibers: Nanoscale stress redistribution, effect of local structural characteristics and nanovoids

The mechanisms of tensile deformation and fracture of carbon fibers are investigated in large-scale molecular dynamics simulations. The simulations performed for computational samples with different structural characteristics enable analysis of the structural sensitivity of the mechanical properties. It is found that the carbon fiber nanostructure can be represented by a fine (nanoscale) mixture of stiff and soft regions. Despite the nanoscale structural heterogeneity of the computational fibers, their fracture strain and tensile strength exceed the experimental values by almost an order of magnitude. Here, this observation is explained by the ability of the carbon fiber nanostructure, largely consisting of curved and folded layers of turbostratic carbon, to exhibit continuous nanoscale load redistribution during the deformation. The transient, fluid nature of a percolating cluster of stress-holding structural elements prevents stress localization at the early stage of the deformation and enables the fiber nanostructure to adapt to the increasing load. Overall, the results of the simulations suggest that the design of advanced carbon fiber manufacturing and post-processing methods focused on the elimination of critical mesoscopic structural defects (internal voids, foreign inclusions, and surface flaws) can yield a substantial increase in the strength and fracture strain of carbon fibers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The nature and origins of decametre-scale porosity in Ordovician carbonate rocks, Halahatang oilfield, Tarim Basin, China

At >7 km depths in the Tarim Basin, hydrocarbon reservoirs in Ordovician rocks of the Yijianfang Formation contain large cavities ( c . 10 m or more), vugs, fractures and porous fault rocks. Although some Yijianfang Formation outcrops contain shallow (formed near surface) palaeokarst features, cores from the Halahatang oilfield lack penetrative palaeokarst evidence. Outcrop palaeokarst cavities and opening-mode fractures are mostly mineral filled but some show evidence of secondary dissolution and fault rocks are locally highly ( c . 30%) porous. Cores contain textural evidence of repeated formation of dissolution cavities and subsequent filling by cement. Calcite isotopic analyses indicate depths between c . 220 and 2000 m. Correlation of core and image logs shows abundant cement-filled vugs associated with decametre-scale fractured zones with open cavities that host hydrocarbons. A Sm–Nd isochron age of 400 ± 37 Ma for fracture-filling fluorite indicates that cavities in core formed and were partially cemented prior to the Carboniferous, predating Permian oil emplacement. Repeated creation and filling of vugs, timing constraints and the association of vugs with large cavities suggest dissolution related to fractures and faults. In the current high-strain-rate regime, corroborated by velocity gradient tensor analysis of global positioning system (GPS) data, rapid horizontal extension could promote connection of porous and/or solution-enlarged fault rock, fractures and cavities. Supplementary material: Stable isotopic analyses and the velocity gradient tensor and principal direction and magnitude calculation are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4946046 Thematic collection: This article is part of the The Geology of Fractured Reservoirs collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/the-geology-of-fractured-reservoirs

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Oil and Gas Recovery Capability

Oil and gas recovery increasingly relies on stimulation and production strategies that involve complex interactions between rock deformation, fractures, and fluid flow underground. Conventional modeling approaches often simplify or separate these effects, which can limit their ability to accurately predict performance in fractured or geologically complex reservoirs.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

A strong fracture-resistant high-entropy alloy with nano-bridged honeycomb microstructure intrinsically toughened by 3D-printing

Strengthening materials via conventional “top-down” processes generally involves restricting dislocation movement by precipitation or grain refinement, which invariably restricts the movement of dislocations away from, or towards, a crack tip, thereby severely compromising their fracture resistance. In the present study, a high-entropy alloy Al0.5CrCoFeNi is produced by the laser powder-bed fusion process, a “bottom-up” additive manufacturing process similar to how nature builds structures, with the microstructure resembling a nano-bridged honeycomb structure consisting of a face-centered cubic (fcc) matrix and an interwoven hexagonal net of an ordered body-centered cubic B2 phase. While the B2 phase, combined with high-dislocation density and solid-solution strengthening, provides strength to the material, the nano-bridges of dislocations connecting the fcc cells, i.e., the channels between the B2 phase on the cell boundaries, provide highways for dislocation movement away from the crack tip. Consequently, the nature-inspired microstructure imparts the material with an excellent combination of strength and toughness.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep reinforcement learning control of hydraulic fracturing

Hydraulic fracturing is a technique to extract oil and gas from shale formations, and obtaining a uniform proppant concentration along the fracture is key to its productivity. Recently, various model predictive control schemes have been proposed to achieve this objective. But such controllers require an accurate and computationally efficient model which is difficult to obtain given the complexity of the process and uncertainties in the rock formation properties. In this article, we design a model-free data-based reinforcement learning controller which learns an optimal control policy through interactions with the process. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) controller is based on the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient algorithm that combines Deep-Q-network with actor-critic framework. In addition, we utilize dimensionality reduction and transfer learning to quicken the learning process. We show that the controller learns an optimal policy to obtain uniform proppant concentration despite the complex nature of the process while satisfying various input constraints.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Watching the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from a distance: Implications for sustainable water management of the Nile water

Increased demands for sustainable water and energy resources in densely populated basins have led to the construction of dams, which impound waters in artificial reservoirs. In many cases, scarce field data led to the development of models that underestimated the seepage losses from reservoirs and ignored the role of extensive fault networks as preferred pathways for groundwater flow. We adopt an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modeling, and field observations) to assess the magnitude and nature of seepage from such systems using the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydropower project, as a test site. The dam was constructed on the Blue Nile within steep, highly fractured, and weathered terrain in the western Ethiopian Highlands. The GERD Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Terrestrial Water Storage (GRACETWS), seasonal peak difference product, reveals significant mass accumulation (43 ± 5 BCM) in the reservoir and seepage in its surroundings with progressive south-southwest mass migration along mapped structures between 2019 and 2022. Seepage, but not a decrease in inflow or increase in outflow, could explain, at least in part, the observed drop in the reservoir's water level and volume following each of the three fillings. Using mass balance calculations and GRACETWS observations, we estimate significant seepage (19.8 ± 6 BCM) comparable to the reservoir's impounded waters (19.9 ± 1.2 BCM). Investigating and addressing the seepage from the GERD will ensure sustainable development and promote regional cooperation; overlooking the seepage would compromise hydrological modeling efforts on the Nile Basin and misinform ongoing negotiations on the Nile water management.

GRACE and GRACE-FO↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Approaches to Predicting Induced Seismicity and Imaging Geothermal Reservoir Properties

This project developed machine learning (ML) methods, lab data sets, and field data to advance geothermal exploration and geothermal energy production. The work had three focus areas. One involved the development of ML methods to use microearthquakes (MEQs) for imaging geothermal reservoir properties and improving subsurface characterization – most importantly the evolution of permeability within the evolving reservoir. This part of the work included development of ML approaches for automated MEQ location, focal mechanism determination and identification of earthquake precursors. The second area focused on using MEQ signals generated by geothermal exploration and production to predict the relationship between fluid injection and seismicity. Here, we extended to reservoir scale our success in using ML to predict laboratory earthquakes and fault zone stress state. The third focus area was on lab experiments. Here, we developed new ML models for lab earthquake prediction and identification of precursors to failure to improve earthquake forecasting and early warning in geothermal settings. Major outcomes of our work include ML models that learn from MEQ signals during geothermal exploration and production to predict induced seismicity. MEQs occur naturally in connection with drilling and energy production. We developed ML methods to use the seismic waves from these events to characterize the elastic, hydraulic and poromechanical properties of reservoirs. Our work illuminated fracture geometry and the evolution of fracture permeability by incorporating seismic coda wave analysis and ML methods to relate fluid injection and seismicity. We significantly expanded laboratory earthquake prediction to include methods that use both passive measurements of microearthquakes within the lab fault zones and also active source acoustic measurements of fault zone elastic properties. These methods can now predict fault zone stress state, time to failure and the magnitude of lab earthquakes. Our work showed that repetitive stick- slip failure events during frictional sliding (the lab equivalent of earthquakes) are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate energy in a manner that foretells unstable failure – manifest as laboratory MEQs. We documented a mapping between fracture properties and statistical attributes of elastic radiation. We extended existing works to geothermal reservoir scale and developed ML methods to determine reservoir permeability, fracture properties, and their evolution during geothermal energy production. An attractive feature of ML algorithms is their ability to handle big datasets and reveal patterns and correlations that may remain invisible to conventional analyses. Our work connected data from field, laboratory and intermediate scales to study permeability, stress, strength, fracture stiffness and geometry. At the field scale we used data from the Newberry Volcano field site, UtahFORGE, EGS Collab, and also the Bedretto underground research lab in Switzerland. These data sets are bridging the gap between the lab scale, theory, and reservoir scale. Our work produced plain language summaries to improve public understanding of DOE research. We also developed openly distributed ML and seismicity datasets for use by all researchers and we published connections between induced seismicity in geothermal areas and reservoir properties including permeability, fracture properties, and stress state. Our models are designed for the large data sets of induced seismicity typically associated with geothermal sites. We produced labeled event catalogs and used them on geothermal data to assess how ML can facilitate geothermal production and exploration. All datasets are available on the GDR Productivity: The project produced 32 publications in peer reviewed journals (two are in review). It supported the work of 6 PhD students, 40 conference presentations, 6 keynote talks at national meetings, and mentoring and professional development for 4 postdoctoral fellows.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Database of Stress-Strain Properties Auto-generated from the Scientific Literature using ChemDataExtractor

Abstract There has been an ongoing need for information-rich databases in the mechanical-engineering domain to aid in data-driven materials science. To address the lack of suitable property databases, this study employs the latest version of the chemistry-aware natural-language-processing (NLP) toolkit, ChemDataExtractor, to automatically curate a comprehensive materials database of key stress-strain properties. The database contains information about materials and their cognate properties: ultimate tensile strength, yield strength, fracture strength, Young’s modulus, and ductility values. 720,308 data records were extracted from the scientific literature and organized into machine-readable databases formats. The extracted data have an overall precision, recall and F-score of 82.03%, 92.13% and 86.79%, respectively. The resulting database has been made publicly available, aiming to facilitate data-driven research and accelerate advancements within the mechanical-engineering domain.

Kumar, Pankaj↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of Pore Structure and Permeability of Rocks Under Hydrothermal Conditions (Final Report)

The physical and transport properties of porous rocks can be altered by a variety of diagenetic, metamorphic, and tectonic processes, and the changes that result are of critical importance to such industrial applications as resource recovery, carbon dioxide sequestration, and waste isolation in geologic formations. The associated interrelationships between rocks, pore fluids and deformation are also key to understanding many natural processes, including dynamic metamorphism, fault mechanics, fault stability and pressure solution creep. In this project, we investigated the changes of permeability and pore geometry owing to inelastic deformation by solution-transfer, brittle fracturing and dislocation creep. In particular, we studied the coupling between pore fluids and deformation in fluid-filled quartz, calcite, mudstones and ultramafic rocks and examine the effects of coupled mechanical and chemical processes on the evolution of porosity and permeability under hydrothermal conditions. The investigations used a combination of techniques, that included triaxial laboratory experiments; uniaxial compressive loading with in situ observations of microstructure; permeability under hydrostatic compression; observations of microstructure using optical and electron microscopes, and micro-CT imaging; and numerical calculations. Laboratory experiments were designed to provide mechanical and transport data under conditions that isolate the particular mechanisms responsible for the changes. The data obtained were used to quantify changes in surface roughness, porosity, pore dimensions and their spatial fluctuations. The results of the experiments and data from image analyses were compared to the results of network, finite-difference and other numerical models to verify the validity of experimentally established relations between permeability and other rock properties. A bibliography for the period from 2015-2019 is appended below. New results obtained in the final year and the unfunded extension period are detailed below.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Specimen for evaluating pressure pulse cavitation in rock formations

An apparatus 300 for simulating a pulsed pressure induced cavitation technique (PPCT) from a pressurized working fluid (F) provides laboratory research and development for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), oil, and gas wells. A pump 304 is configured to deliver a pressurized working fluid (F) to a control valve 306, which produces a pulsed pressure wave in a test chamber 308. The pulsed pressure wave parameters are defined by the pump 304 pressure and control valve 306 cycle rate. When a working fluid (F) and a rock specimen 312 are included in the apparatus, the pulsed pressure wave causes cavitation to occur at the surface of the specimen 312, thus initiating an extensive network of fracturing surfaces and micro fissures, which are examined by researchers.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A variational phase-field framework for thermal softening and dynamic ductile fracture

A variational phase field model for dynamic ductile fracture is presented. Here, the model is designed for elasto-viscoplastic materials subjected to rapid deformations in which the effects of heat generation and material softening are dominant. The variational framework allows for the consistent inclusion of plastic dissipation in the heat equation as well as thermal softening. It employs a coalescence function to degrade fracture energy during regimes of high plastic flow. A variationally consistent form of the Johnson–Cook model is developed for use with the framework. Results from various benchmark problems in dynamic ductile fracture are presented to demonstrate capabilities. In particular, the ability of the model to regularize shear band formation and subsequent damage evolution in two- and three-dimensional problems is demonstrated. Importantly, these phenomena are naturally captured through the underlying physics without the need for phenomenological criteria such as stability thresholds for the onset of shear band formation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

X-ray tomography of damage dynamics in advanced materials using a laser wakefield accelerator

Additively manufactured (AM) metals offer the potential for customizable, cost-effective components, but qualification and certification are crucial. Key to this process is understanding pore dynamics under stress, typically analyzed using micro-computed tomography. This study introduces laboratory-scale “betatron” x-rays from laser wakefield acceleration as a high-throughput alternative for x-ray tomography of advanced materials, such as AM AlSi10Mg alloys. Coupled with 3D finite element modeling, this method provides detailed insights into stress-porosity interactions. The approach delivers high-resolution scans, revealing that pore shape and local triaxiality significantly influence fracture dynamics, supporting advanced material characterization. This work also demonstrates the potential and versatility of laser-betatron x-ray μCT for generating large datasets to accelerate our understanding of the stochastic, process-specific nature of pore formation in AM alloys.

Senthilkumaran, Vigneshvar↗
DOE OSTI2020

Initial Field Testing in the Deep Subsurface for the Thermal Breakout Project for Measuring In Situ Stress

The current state-of-the-art technology for in situ stress measurements involves an integrated approach that combines borehole breakout observations, drilling-induced tensile fractures, and hydraulic fracturing tests (i.e., mini-fracs); however, this methodology has several limitations that often prevent successful in situ stress measurements. One major limitation is that breakouts do not appear in every borehole and are generally a natural occurrence that cannot easily be controlled. Because borehole breakouts are used to measure the maximum horizontal in situ stress magnitude, the absence of borehole breakouts presents a major data gap for in situ stress measurements. As a response to this data gap a new thermal breakout technology is being developed that will provide a method for thermally inducing borehole breakouts and obtaining consistent measurements of the maximum horizontal stress magnitude. This thermal breakout technology involves heating the borehole and increasing the thermoelastic compressive stress in the rock until a breakout develops, which is directly correlated to the maximum horizontal stress magnitude. An initial component of the thermal breakout project involves developing a prototype downhole tool and performing field testing in the deep subsurface. The primary objective of the initial tool development and field testing is to provide a physical proof of concept for the thermal breakout technology. Three thermal breakout field tests were performed at approximately 4850 feet deep in the Sanford Underground Research Facility. Each test was performed in a borehole that had been previously used for overcoring stress measurements. The third and final test successfully created two diametrically opposed breakouts after deploying the thermal breakout tool for approximately 3 hours of continuous heating. Post-analysis of the thermally induced breakouts confirmed that the thermal breakout orientation directly corresponds to the known in situ stress orientation and magnitude.

Voegeli, Sam↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variable resolution Poisson-disk sampling for meshing discrete fracture networks

Here, we present the near-Maximal Algorithm for Poisson-disk Sampling (nMAPS) to generate point distributions for variable resolution Delaunay triangular and tetrahedral meshes in two and three-dimensions, respectively. nMAPS consists of two principal stages. In the first stage, an initial point distribution is produced using a cell-based rejection algorithm. In the second stage, holes in the sample are detected using an efficient background grid and filled in to obtain a near-maximal covering. Extensive testing shows that nMAPS generates a variable resolution mesh in linear run time with the number of accepted points. We demonstrate nMAPS capabilities by meshing three-dimensional discrete fracture networks (DFN) and the surrounding volume. The discretized boundaries of the fractures, which are represented as planar polygons, are used as the seed of 2D-nMAPS to produce a conforming Delaunay triangulation. The combined mesh of the DFN is used as the seed for 3D-nMAPS, which produces conforming Delaunay tetrahedra surrounding the network. Under a set of conditions that naturally arise in maximal Poisson-disk samples and are satisfied by nMAPS, the two-dimensional Delaunay triangulations are guaranteed to only have well-behaved triangular faces. While nMAPS does not provide triangulation quality bounds in more than two dimensions, we found that low-quality tetrahedra in 3D are infrequent, can be readily detected and removed, and a high-quality balanced mesh is produced.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Dependency of Brittle Creep in Granite: Insights into Source Mechanisms and Parameters

Creep in rocks refers to the gradual deformation of rock material over time under the influence of constant stress. Characterizing these deformations is of great importance for engineering design, geotechnical assessment, mining operations, geological studies, and understanding natural hazards. While laboratory experiments and a variety of numerical approaches have offered explanations for microcrack interaction and damage accumulation under the three stages of creep (primary, secondary and tertiary) in conventional creep experiments, the micromechanisms of the fractures produced in brittle creep and its dependency on the applied stress have not been explored in detail. The present study focused on investigating the fracturing mechanisms that occur during creep-induced fracturing at different stress levels and estimation of the source parameters and energy budget components. A series of uniaxial compression creep experiments have been conducted at different stress level ratios (70%, 75%, 80% and 85%), to the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of double-flawed Barre granite specimen. Creep measurements were complemented with the Acoustic Emission (AE) measurements. The creep-induced fractures were classified into double-couple (DC), compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) and isotropic (ISO) components using the AE moment tensor decomposition technique. The results show that non-double-couple sources dominated during creep at all the specified stress levels; however, their proportions decreased as the stress level was increased. The source parameters estimation indicated a significant increase in the magnitude of the events and the radiated seismic energy with increasing levels of stress and a slight increase in the evaluated source radius and stress drop with increasing stress levels. Furthermore, this study contributes to the existing knowledge of creep-induced fracturing by providing insights into the fracturing mechanisms and the radiated seismic energy produced, which can be helpful for the development of improved models and strategies for rock engineering and geoscience applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the economic implications of varied pressure drawdown strategies generated using a real-time, rapid predictive, multi-fidelity model for unconventional oil and gas wells

Experience has suggested that pressure maintenance in hydraulically fractured reservoirs via lower, more sustained production drawdowns may offer improved cumulative recovery and overall resource extraction efficiency compared to more rapid drawdown approaches aimed at generating high initial production. However, given the inherent variability of oil and natural gas markets, operators pursue production strategies that maximize profitability over resource extraction efficiency. This study focuses on evaluating the implications of contrasting pressure drawdown strategies on the long-term production and resulting economics for a real, producing unconventional gas well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin using a techno-economic analysis approach. Our research combines elements of well-specific horizontal well design, production forecasting, equipment sizing and capital cost estimation, operating cost estimation, and revenue and tax calculations. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning workflow and 2) traditional reservoir simulation. A discounted cash flow model was used to evaluate the resulting economic implications for each drawdown scenario—generating output for exploring the coupled effect of factors like the timing and volume of gas production, prevailing economic and market conditions for natural gas, and overall estimated ultimate recovery on profitability metrics such as internal rate of return and net present value. Results show that there is potential to maximize the cumulative gas produced in the specific case study well by employing a lower pressure drawdown. Conversely, the greatest profitability is achieved using rapid drawdown as signified by a small, specific subset of our outlook scenarios. On an averaging basis, we find that the combinations of highest cumulative producing and most profitable scenarios occur under lower drawdowns with long (>40 years) producing timeframes, but require higher relative gas price and lower discounting considerations. Further, the machine learning predictive outlooking capability proved effective for enabling rapid generation of a multitude of scenario forecasts. As a result, a variety of prominent example cases could be generated to strike the balance of greater productivity and economic return given their associated producing features and economic conditions when compared to similar producing scenarios—critical insight that offers improved decision support for unconventional oil and gas operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗