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Recent Variability Observations of Solar System Giant Planets: Fresh Context for Understanding Exoplanet and Brown Dwarf Weather

Over the past several years a number of high cadence photometric observations of solar system giant planets have been acquired by various platforms. Such observations are of interest as they provide points of comparison to the already expansive set of brown dwarf variability observations and the small, but growing, set of exoplanet variability observations. By measuring how rapidly the integrated light from solar system giant planets can evolve, variability observations of substellar objects that are unlikely to ever be resolved can be placed in a fuller context. Examples of brown dwarf variability observations include extensive work from the ground (e.g., Radigen et al. 2014), Spitzer (e.g., Metchev et al. 2015), Kepler (Gizis et al. 2015), and HST (Yang et al. 2015).Variability has been measured on the planetary mass companion to the brown dwarf 2MASS 1207b (Zhou et al. 2016) and further searches are planned in thermal emission for the known directly imaged planets with ground based telescopes (Apai et al. 2016) and in reflected light with future space based telescopes. Recent solar system variability observations include Kepler monitoring of Neptune (Simon et al. 2016) and Uranus, Spitzer observations of Neptune (Stauffer et al. 2016), and Cassini observations of Jupiter (West et al. in prep). The Cassini observations are of particular interest as they measured the variability of Jupiter at a phase angle of approximately 60 deg, comparable to the viewing geometry expected for space based direct imaging of cool extrasolar Jupiters in reflected light. These solar system analog observations capture many of the characteristics seen in brown dwarf variability, including large amplitudes and rapid light curve evolution on timescales as short as a few rotation periods. Simon et al. (2016) attribute such variations at Neptune to a combination of large scale, stable cloud structures along with smaller, more rapidly varying, cloud patches. The observed brown dwarf and exoplanet variability may well arise from comparable cloud structures. In my presentation I will compare and contrast the nature of the variability observed for the various solar system and other substelar objects and present a wish list for future observations.

giant planets↗

Quantifying UAS Observation Error Variance Used in Data Assimilation Systems and Its Impact on Predictive Skill

Observation error determines the weights of the observations and background state used in data assimilation to generate analyses. Quantifying observation error is critical for the optimal assimilation of observational data sets. Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations have shown potential benefits in filling observational gaps in the lower atmosphere; however, characterization of their error characteristics has been limited. To optimize the use of UAS observations in numerical weather prediction, UAS observation error is estimated based on the 3‐cornered hat diagnostic approach which uses three independent estimates of the atmospheric state. This approach is applied to data from the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation‐a Remotely‐piloted Aircraft Team Experiment field campaign using collocated UAS and rawinsonde observations along with output from a set of convection‐permitting model simulations. The estimated observation error values for UAS temperature, wind, and relative humidity measurements were found to be only weakly dependent on height AGL with mean values equal to 0.5°C, 0.8 m s −1 , and 3%, respectively. Only the newly estimated observation error for temperature differed from that previously used to assimilate commercial aircraft observations into global models (1.0°C). However, using this reduced temperature observation error produced more accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of both terrain‐driven flows and convection initiation generated by colliding outflow boundaries within the San Luis Valley of Colorado.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observational Needs for Improving Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis, S2S Prediction, and Decadal Prediction

Developments in ocean data assimilation (DA) and observing system technologies are intertwined. New observation types lead to new DA methods, and new DA methods such as Coupled Data Assimilation can change the value of existing observations or indicate where new observations can have greater utility for monitoring and prediction. Practitioners are encouraged to make better use of observations that are already available, for example in strongly coupled data assimilation where ocean observations can be used to improve atmospheric analyses and vice versa. Ocean reanalyses are useful for the analysis of climate,as well as initializing operational long-range prediction models. There are remaining challenges for ocean reanalyses due to biases and abrupt changes in the ocean observing system throughout its history, the presence of biases and drifts in models, and simplifying assumptions made in the DA methods. From a governance point of view, more support is needed to interface the observing community and the ocean DA community. For prediction applications, the ocean DA community must work with the ocean observing community to establish protocols for rapid communication of ocean observing data on NWP timescales. There is potential for new observations to enhance the observing system by supporting prediction on multiple timescales, ranging from the typical timescale of numerical weather prediction covering hours to weeks, out to multiple decades. It is highly encouraged that communication be fostered between thesecommunities to allow operational prediction centers the ability to provide guidance to the design of a sustained and adaptive observing network.

Ocean reanalysis↗

A typical pointed observation in IRAS designed to fit into a 15 minute window

A typical pointed observation in the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) was designed to fit into a 15 minute window. Observing constraints, however, did not always permit targets from the scientific program to be observed on exactly 15 minute centers and a few months into the mission it was realized that the automatic scheduling program left times when no observations were being made. In order to use this potentially wasted observing time, a mode of pointed observations, the 'filler' mode, with shorter observation duration was initiated. Locations were picked on an arbitrary grid, spaced relatively uniformly in ecliptic coordinates, and the telescope was pointed to one of these sites whenever a gap potentially occurred. One of us (GXN) was the coordinator of this effort (the FL sub-group). There are a total of 22 FL fields, 13 of which have more than 50 component observations. These 13 fields cover about 30 square degrees. It was proposed to concentrate on one filler field, FL29, a field with 53 coverages which thus had among the deepest coverage of those observed in this mode. This field was also observed extensively at various non-infrared wavelengths by a variety of techniques. Because the IRAS observations of FL29 were made at the limits of the survey sensitivity and at different twist angles it was necessary to make significant technical advances in the methods used in the processing and analyzing the data. In particular, if normal IRAS coaddition procedures were used, the noise resulting from coaddition of the multiple frames did not decrease in the manner expected once significantly different twist angles were included in the coaddition. The technical effort needed to reduce the observations of FL29 was completed and now the noise behavior is understood and well behaved. The reduction of the field FL29 observations is done.

Neugebauer, G.↗

Science Planning for Multi-Spacecraft Coordinated Observations

Fulfilling the promise of an era of great observatories, NASA now has more than three space-based astronomical telescopes operating in different wavebands. This situation provides astronomers with a unique opportunity to simultaneously observe with multiple observatories. Yet scheduling multiple observatories simultaneously is highly inefficient when compared to single observatory observations. Thus, programs using multiple observatories are limited not due to scientific restrictions, but due to operational inefficiencies. Each year, a number of proposals are accepted by a space-based observatory for conduction of astronomical observations and gathering of science data for the study of galactic events. Since each space-based observatory uses a set of instruments designed to operate in specific energy regions, most such studies are conducted by submitting observation proposals to multiple observatories, with requests to coordinate among themselves. To assure that the proposed observations can be scheduled, each observatory's staff has to check that the observations are valid and meet all the constraints for their own observatory; in addition, they have to verify that the observations satisfy the constraints of the other observatories. Thus, coordinated observations require painstaking manual collaboration among the observatory staff at each observatory. In order to exploit new paradigms for observatory operation, the Goddard Space Flight Center's Advanced Architectures and Automation Branch has developed a prototype tool called the Visual Observation Layout Tool (VOLT). The main objective of VOLT is to provide a visual tool to automate the science planning of coordinated observations for multiple spacecraft, as well as to increase the scheduling probability of observations. However, VOLT is also useful for single observatory planning to optimize observatory control. Three space-based missions are interested in using VOLT (the Hubble Space Telescope, the Chandra X-Ray Observatory, and the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer). The VOLT team members have collaborated with these missions to gather requirements and obtain feedback on their mission planning processes. VOLT has been developed as a cross-platform Java client application for use by scientists and observatory science planning staff to visualize scheduling options and constraints. It also supports a lightweight graphical user interface for remote viewing via a Web front end. Additionally, it uniquely supports the ability to interact with multiple, diverse scheduling packages in order to determine windows of opportunity for observations and visually portray the constraints of each observation request. VOLT enables science data capture scenarios which are currently either impossible, or which require extensive time and manpower to coordinate amongst multiple observatories. it supports early detection of planning conflicts by generating coordinated solutions based on observatory schedulability and constraints. The project development approach has included frequent prototype demonstrations to our interested missions to obtain feedback after each release of the software. We will present an overview of our lessons learned in infusing the VOLT tool into the operations of the missions we have collaborated with and a brief demonstration of the software.

Maks, Lori↗

Assessing the Impact of Advanced Satellite Observations in the NASA GEOS-5 Forecast System Using the Adjoint Method

The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. In this talk, we present results from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. The tool has been running in various off-line configurations for some time, and is scheduled to run as a regular part of the real-time forecast suite beginning in autumn 20 I O. We focus on the impacts of the newest components of the satellite observing system, including AIRS, IASI and GPS. For AIRS and IASI, it is shown that the vast majority of the channels assimilated have systematic positive impacts (of varying magnitudes), although some channels degrade the forecast. Of the latter, most are moisture-sensitive or near-surface channels. The impact of GPS observations in the southern hemisphere is found to be a considerable overall benefit to the system. In addition, the spatial variability of observation impacts reveals coherent patterns of positive and negative impacts that may point to deficiencies in the use of certain observations over, for example, specific surface types. When performed in conjunction with selected observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies appears to pose a major challenge for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems.

Gelaro, Ron↗

On learning what to learn: Heterogeneous observations of dynamics and establishing possibly causal relations among them

Abstract Before we attempt to (approximately) learn a function between two sets of observables of a physical process, we must first decide what the inputs and outputs of the desired function are going to be. Here we demonstrate two distinct, data-driven ways of first deciding “the right quantities” to relate through such a function, and then proceeding to learn it. This is accomplished by first processing simultaneous heterogeneous data streams (ensembles of time series) from observations of a physical system: records of multiple observation processes of the system. We determine (i) what subsets of observables are common between the observation processes (and therefore observable from each other, relatable through a function); and (ii) what information is unrelated to these common observables, therefore particular to each observation process, and not contributing to the desired function. Any data-driven technique can subsequently be used to learn the input–output relation—from k-nearest neighbors and Geometric Harmonics to Gaussian Processes and Neural Networks. Two particular “twists” of the approach are discussed. The first has to do with the identifiability of particular quantities of interest from the measurements. We now construct mappings from a single set of observations from one process to entire level sets of measurements of the second process, consistent with this single set. The second attempts to relate our framework to a form of causality: if one of the observation processes measures “now,” while the second observation process measures “in the future,” the function to be learned among what is common across observation processes constitutes a dynamical model for the system evolution.

Sroczynski, David W.↗

Design of analytical failure detection using secondary observers

The problem of designing analytical failure-detection systems (FDS) for sensors and actuators, using observers, is addressed. The use of observers in FDS is related to the examination of the n-dimensional observer error vector which carries the necessary information on possible failures. The problem is that in practical systems, in which only some of the components of the state vector are measured, one has access only to the m-dimensional observer-output error vector, with m or = to n. In order to cope with these cases, a secondary observer is synthesized to reconstruct the entire observer-error vector from the observer output error vector. This approach leads toward the design of highly sensitive and reliable FDS, with the possibility of obtaining a unique fingerprint for every possible failure. In order to keep the observer's (or Kalman filter) false-alarm rate under a certain specified value, it is necessary to have an acceptable matching between the observer (or Kalman filter) models and the system parameters. A previously developed adaptive observer algorithm is used to maintain the desired system-observer model matching, despite initial mismatching or system parameter variations. Conditions for convergence for the adaptive process are obtained, leading to a simple adaptive law (algorithm) with the possibility of an a priori choice of fixed adaptive gains. Simulation results show good tracking performance with small observer output errors, while accurate and fast parameter identification, in both deterministic and stochastic cases, is obtained.

Sisar, M.↗

Rotational modulation and flares on RS Canum Venaticorum and BY Draconis stars. 18: Coordinated VLA, ROSAT, and IUE observations of RS CVn binaries

As part of a coordinated program of multi-wavelength observations of RS CVn close binary systems, we observed 15 systems with the Very Large Array (VLA) and 10 systems with IUE, simultaneously or nearly simultaneously with the ROSAT All Sky Survey observations of these stars. Of the 22 systems observed with ROSAT, three were observed both by IUE and the VLA. Radio observations were made at 3.6, 6 and 20 cm. Of the 15 observed RS CVn systems, we detected 11 with greater than 4 sigma confidence at one or more wavelengths. The IUE observations were made within the RIASS (ROSAT-IUE All Sky Survey) program. We present the results of the VLA observations, along with the corresponding subsets of the ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) X-ray and Wide Field Camera (WFC) XUV survey, and RIASS IUE observations. We obtained an extended VLA/IUE/ROSAT simultaneous coverage of one system, TY Pyx, covering more than one orbital period. These observations reveal that the quiescent radio flux of TY Pyx is relatively constant over time scales of up to 7 hours, but that it did change by a factor of 3 over 24 hours, probably due to a flare on 1990 Nov. 12. The UV, XUV and X-ray fluxes do not show large day-to-day or phase-related variability. The observation of the decay phase of a radio flare on EI Eri, with no accompanying X-ray or XUV flare, suggests that the lack of a strong correlation between X-ray and radio flares previously noted for dMe flare stars holds for RS CVn systems as well. We suggest that the radio flare may have been due to a coherent emission process such as electron cyclotron emission. The simultaneous measurements presented here provide a unique test of the general correlation between radio and soft X-ray luminosities, L(sub radio) approximately L(sub x exp m) (Drake et al. 1989) with a power-law slope close to unity, which was previously derived using data obtained years apart. Our derived slopes are consistent with and thus support the general correlations between coronal and chromospheric/transition region emissions previously derived from nonsimultaneous measurements of a much larger sample of these variable sources. However, the importance of simultaneous measurements for accurate energy balance calculations is stressed.

Fox, David C.↗

First Terrestrial Soft X-ray Aurora Observations by Chandra

Northern polar "auroral" regions of Earth was observed by High-Resolution Camera in imaging mode (T32C-I) aboard Chandra X-Ray Observatory (CXO) during mid December 2003 - mid April 2004. Ten CXO observations, each approximately 20 min duration, were made in a non-conventional method (due to CXO technical issues), such that Chandra was aimed at a fixed point in sky and the Earth's polar cusp was allowed to drift through the HRC-I field-of-view. The observations were performed when CXO was near apogee and timed during northern winter mostly near midnight (6 hr), except two observations which occurred around 1200 UT, so that northern polar region is entirely in dark and solar fluoresced x-ray contamination can be avoided. These observations were aimed at searching the Earth's soft x-ray aurora and to do a comparative study with Jupiter's x-ray aurora, where a pulsating x-ray hot-spot near the northern magnetic pole has been observed by Chandra that implies a particle source region near Jupiter's magnetopause, and entry of heavy solar wind ions due to high-latitude reconnection as a viable explanation for the soft x-ray emissions. The first Chandra soft (0.1-2 keV) x-ray observations of Earth's aurora show that it is highly variable (intense arc, multiple arcs, diffuse, at times almost absent). In at least one of the observations an isolated blob of emission is observed where we expect cusp to be: giving indication of solar wind charge-exchange signature in x-rays. We are comparing the Chandra x-ray observations with observations at other wavelengths and particle data from Earth-orbiting satellites and solar wind measurements from near-Earth ACE and SOH0 spacecraft. Preliminary results from these unique CXO-Earth observations will be presented and discussed.

Bhardwaj, Anil↗

Optical Photometric Observations of GEO Debris

We report on a continuing program of optical photometric measurements of faint orbital debris at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). These observations can be compared with laboratory studies of actual spacecraft materials in an effort to determine what the faint debris at GEO may be. We have optical observations from Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile of two samples of debris: 1. GEO objects discovered in a survey with the University of Michigan's 0.6-m aperture Curtis-Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope), and then followed up in real-time with the CTIO/SMARTS 0.9-m for orbits and photometry. Our goal is to determine 6 parameter orbits and measure colors for all objects fainter than R = 15 t11 magnitude that are discovered in the MODEST survey. 2. A smaller sample of high area to mass ratio (AMR) objects discovered independently, and acquired using predictions from orbits derived from independent tracking data collected days prior to the observations. Our optical observations in standard astronomical BVRI filters are done with either telescope, and with the telescope tracking the debris object at the object's angular rate. Observations in different filters are obtained sequentially. We have obtained 71 calibrated sequences of R-B-V-I-R magnitudes. A total of 66 of these sequences have 3 or more good measurements in all filters (not contaminated by star streaks or in Earth's shadow). Most of these sequences show brightness variations, but a small subset has observed brightness variations consistent with that expected from observational errors alone. The majority of these stable objects are redder than a solar color in both B-R and R-I. There is no dependence on color with brightness. For a smaller sample of objects we have observed with synchronized CCD cameras on the two telescopes. The CTIO 0.9-m observes in B, and MODEST in R. The CCD cameras are electronically linked together so that the start time and duration of observations are the same to better than 50 milliseconds. Thus, the B-R color is a true measure of the surface of the debris piece facing the telescopes for that observation. Any change in color reflects a real change in the debris surface. We will compare our observations with models and laboratory measurements of selected surfaces.

Seitzer, Patrick↗

The gravitational path integral from an observer’s point of view

One of the fundamental problems in quantum gravity is to describe the experience of a gravitating observer in generic spacetimes. In this paper, we develop a framework for describing non-perturbative physics relative to an observer using the gravitational path integral. We apply our proposal to an observer that lives in a closed universe and one that falls behind a black hole horizon. We find that the Hilbert space that describes the experience of the observer is much larger than the Hilbert space in the absence of an observer. In the case of closed universes, the Hilbert space is not one-dimensional, as calculations in the absence of the observer suggest. Rather, its dimension scales exponentially with ${G}_{N}^{-1}$. Similarly, from an observer’s perspective, the dimension of the Hilbert space in a two-sided black hole is increased. We compute various observables probing the experience of a gravitating observer in this Hilbert space. We find that an observer experiences non-trivial physics in the closed universe in contrast to what it would see in a one-dimensional Hilbert space. In the two-sided black hole setting, our proposal implies that non-perturbative corrections to effective field theory for an infalling observer are suppressed until times exponential in the black hole entropy, resolving a recently-raised puzzle in black hole physics. While the framework that we develop is exemplified in the toy-model of JT gravity, most of our analysis can be extended to higher dimensions and, in particular, to generic spacetimes not admitting a conventional holographic description, such as cosmological universes or black hole interiors.

2D gravity↗

Microwave and infrared simulations of an intense convective system and comparison with aircraft observations

A three-dimensional cloud model, radiative transfer model-based simulation system is tested and validated against the aircraft-based radiance observations of an intense convective system in southeastern Virginia on 29 June 1986 during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment. NASA's ER-2, a high-altitude research aircraft with a complement of radiometers operating at 11-micrometer infrared channel and 18-, 37-, 92-, and 183-GHz microwave channels provided data for this study. The cloud model successfully simulated the cloud system with regard to aircraft- and radar-observed cloud-top heights and diameters and with regard to radar-observed reflectivity structure. For the simulation time found to correspond best with the aircraft- and radar-observed structure, brightness temperatures T(sub b) are simulated and compared with observations for all the microwave frequencies along with the 11-micrometer infrared channel. Radiance calculations at the various frequencies correspond well with the aircraft observations in the areas of deep convection. The clustering of 37-147-GHz T(sub b) observations and the isolation of the 18-GHz values over the convective cores are well simulated by the model. The radiative transfer model, in general, is able to simulate the observations reasonably well from 18 GHz through 174 GHz within all convective areas of the cloud system. When the aircraft-observed 18- and 37-GHz, and 90- and 174-GHz T(sub b) are plotted against each other, the relationships have a gradual difference in the slope due to the differences in the ice particle size in the convective and more stratiform areas of the cloud. The model is able to capture these differences observed by the aircraft. Brightness temperature-rain rate relationships compare reasonably well with the aircraft observations in terms of the slope of the relationship. The model calculations are also extended to select high-frequency channels at 220, 340, and 400 GHz to simulate the Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer aircraft instrument to be flown in the near future. All three of these frequencies are able to discriminate the convective and anvil portions of the system, providing useful information similar to that from the frequencies below 183 GHz but with potentially enhanced spatial resolution from a satellite platform. In thin clouds, the dominant effect of water vapor is seen at 174, 340, and 400 GHz. In thick cloudy areas, the scattering effect is dominant at 90 and 220 GHz, while the overlaying water vapor can attenuate at 174, 340, and 400 GHz. All frequencies (90-400 GHz) show strong signatures in the core.

Prasad, N.↗

Monitoring Mars with the Hubble Space Telescope: 1990-1991 observations

Images of Mars obtained using the Planetary Camera on the Hubble Space Telescope during 1990 and 1991 are described and analyzed. Multispectral images of Mars record the martian season between L(sub s) = 348 deg and 60 deg corresponding to late winter and spring in the northern hemisphere. The wavelengths of these observations varied between 230 nm in the ultraviolet and 890 nm in the near infrared. We use these images to discuss atmospheric and polar phenomena, to constrain the aerosols and ozone in the martian atmosphere, and to compare surface albedo features within this data set as well as with previous observations. Two methods are used to constrain the opacity of the martian atmosphere: comparisons of ultraviolet images with atmospheric scattering models and examination of contrast changes of surface features observed at visible wavelengths. Our observations are consistent with a Mars which was quite different from the planet when it was viewed by Viking; we estimate an upper limit of 0.1 for equatorial dust opacity near vernal equinox, compared to values of 0.4 to 0.5 measured in Chryse by Viking Lander 1. Later, at L(sub s) = 60 deg, and upper limit of 0.2 was found for dust in the southern hemisphere. Except for suggestions of local dust activity near the north polar cap in late spring, there was no visual evidence of dust storms on the planet. The Hartley band of ozone is within the F230W filter bandpass, and the 230W/336W ratio is therefore sensitive to ozone. High latitude ozone is observed at a concentration similar to that observed by Mariner 9; a seasonal dependence in ozone concentration was observed with concentration decreasing at northern arctic latitudes and increasing at southern midlatitudes as L(sub s) increases from 350 deg to 60 deg. Despite the difference in dust loading, the behavior of condensate clouds and the recession of the north polar cap are consistent with those observed during Viking years. Late winter images of the north polar region reveal an active north polar hood with a maximum (UV) opacity of about 0.25 near 50 deg latitude; the hood seems to have an annular form, with the central, polar regions having smaller opacity. Clouds observed in the northern hemisphere to the south of the hood boundary are suggestive of fronts similar to those observed during the Mariner 9 mission. A diurnal variation in the hood clouds which is (anti) correlated with the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is noted. Images were deconvolved using the Richardson-Lucy iterative algorithm to remove the defocussing effects of the spherical aberration of the HST primary. Even when Mars subtended less than 5 arcsec, in May 1991, the images were scientifically useful and comparable to photographic images obtained at opposition. Although the data are subject to the solar pointing constraint for HST, the relatively slow movement of the allowed observation window, which is more than one half martian year, with respect to the martian seasons will permit us to address the question of major variations in the martian atmosphere.

James, Philip B.↗

Pioneer 10 ultraviolet photometer observations of Jovian UV emission in 1973

The Pioneer 10 ultraviolet measurements obtained during the Jupiter encounter in 1973 have been further examined by using improved data handling and analysis techniques. The Pioneer 10 observations of Jupiter and its satellites during the encounter have been carefully reviewed in order to improve our understanding of the morphology of the Io plasma torus and Jupiter's upper atmosphere and to investigate the possible existence of other emission source such as Europa. In addition, the morphology of Io's bimodal torus observed during the Pioneer 10 encounter has been compared with the Voyager observations obtained approximately 6 years after the Pioneer 10 flyby and significant differences in the torus characteristics are found. The Io torus in 1973 was more similar to the 1992 Ulysses observations of a longitudinally asymmetric ring than to the complete ring observed by Voyager. Pioneer 10 observed a significantly dimmer Io torus and Jupiter upper atmosphere in the EUV compared to the Voyager observations. Apart from the torus and Jupiter, Pioneer 10 observed additional emissions which have been attributed to Io itself. Three distinct possibilities have been discussed to explain these additional emissions. The most likely is that Pioneer 10 observed volcanism on Io. There is also evidence of Pioneer 10 observing emissions from Europa. The present analysis clearly shows that the Jovian system in 1973 was significantly different from that observed in 1979.

Wu, F. M.↗

Microwave Observations and Modeling of O2 (1-delta(sub g)) and O3 Diurnal Variation in the Mesosphere

The first microwave measurements of an electronically excited molecular species in the Earth's atmosphere are presented. Local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) rotational line emission from mesospheric O2(1-del(sub g)) was observed at a frequency of 255.01794 GHz (lambda is approx. 1.2 mm), employing the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) millimeter facility at Kitt Peak, Arizona (32 N, 111 W). The pressure broadened line shapes of the O2(1-del(sub g)) spectra, which were obtained in January and April 1992 and in January and November 1993, are inverted to retrieve O2(1-del(sub g)) mixing profiles over the 50-70 km altitude region. The observed daytime abundances exceed ozone abundances in the lower mesosphere, which are separately retrieved with coincident O3 spectral line (249.7886 GHz) observations. The January and November 1993 observations are binned into 20-60 min time intervals to study O2(1-del(sub g)) diurnal behavior. Derived abundances of O2(1-del(sub g)) between 50 and 70 km for the four observation dates are 9%, 31%, 3%, and 26%, respectively, each +/- 10% higher than predicted, based on the simple photochemistry of lower mesospheric O2(1-del(sub g)). Modeled variation of [O2(1-del(sub g))] with time of day agrees with observed variation in that the observed difference between model and data abundances is constant throughout the daylight hours of each observation date. Model underprediction Of [02(lAg)] is consistent with similar model underprediction of mesospheric [O3]. A perturbation to the photochemical model that forces decreased ozone chemical loss brings brings both model [O3] and [O2(1-del(sub g))] into agreement with the observations. O2(1-del(sub g)) abundances derived from these 1.2 mm observations agree with [O2(1-del(sub g))] values derived from comparable SME observations of the 1.27 micrometers emission, with assumption of a 3880 sec O2(1-del(sub g)) radiative lifetime. The 6800 sec O2(1-del(sub g)) radiative lifetime proposed by Mlynczak and Nesbitt is ruled out by the similar comparison.

Sandor, Brad J.↗

Nonlinear Observers for Gyro Calibration

High precision estimation and control algorithms, to achieve unprecedented levels of pointing accuracy, will be required to support future formation flying missions such as interferometry missions. Achieving high pointing accuracy requires precise knowledge of the spacecraft rotation rate. Typically, the rotation rate is measured by a gyro. The measured rates can be corrupted by errors in alignment and scale factor, gyro biases, and noise. In this work, we present nonlinear observers for gyro calibration. Nonlinear observers are superior to extended or pseudo-linear Kalman filter type approaches for large errors and global stability. Three nonlinear gyro calibration observers are developed. The first observer estimates a constant gyro bias. The second observer estimates scale factor errors. The third observer estimates the gyro alignment for three orthogonal gyros. The convergence properties of all three observers are discussed. Additionally, all three observers are coupled with a nonlinear control algorithm. The stability of each of the resulting closed loop systems is analyzed. The observers are then combined, and the gyro calibration parameters are estimated simultaneously. The stability of the combined observers is addressed, as well as the stability of the resulting closed loop systems. Simulated test results are presented for each scenario. Finally, the nonlinear observers are compared to a pseudo-linear Kalman filter.

Thienel, Julie↗

Multi-Year Characterization of PSCs Using Solar Occultation Satellite Observations

POAM solar occultation observations from1994 to present are studied for the purpose of determining Type I PSC formation characteristics and winter-long evolution. This information is critical to an improved understanding and predictive capability of stratospheric ozone depletion. Solar occultation satellite observations of these clouds yields more continuous and wide-spread information than can be obtained from aircraft, balloon, or ground-based observations. This multi-winter PSC study is augmented by the use of our Type Ia/Ib discrimination scheme. Recent studies of PSC formation made with POAM observations and simulations during the 1999-2000 Arctic winter have shown characteristics that shed light on the formation mechanisms responsible for Type Ia solid phase PSCs. This study examines PSC observations from many years on a common basis to see if the characteristics observed & cuing the 1999-2000 Arctic winter ai-e observed in other years and if other characteristics can be identified. The results show that Type Ia PSCs form at the beginning of the winter, within several days of the fxst drop in temperature below TNAT, and peak early in the winter. Type Ia PSCs typically outnumber Ib PSCs over the winter, especially at the beginning of the winter. Type Ia and Ib PSC observations continue throughout the winter. Micro-physical models of PSC formation must match these observed characteristics. Some models predict that temperatures must be more 5 K below T-NAT for five days before significant freezing can occur. This is not seen in the POAM observations. Differences in PSC characte ristics between the first two Arctic winters (1 994- 1995 and 1995- 1 996) and later winters also suggest the influence of volcanic perturb ations on PSC formation. Type Ia and Ib PSC characteristics observed by POAM III and SAGE III for the 2002-2003 Arctic winter are compared.

Strawa, A. W.↗