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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2025

A compartmentalized model of multiphase chemical kinetics

There are significant challenges in predicting multiphase chemical kinetics due to the complex coupling of reaction and mass transport across a phase boundary (i.e., interface). Here, we describe a framework for predicting multiphase kinetics that embeds the elementary kinetic steps of reaction, solvation, and diffusion into a coarse grain spatial description of two phases. The model is constructed to bridge the short-timescale interfacial dynamics observed in molecular simulations with the longer timescales observed in kinetic experiments. A simple set of governing differential equations is derived, which, when solved numerically or analytically, yield accurate predictions of multiphase kinetics in microdroplets. Although the equations are formulated for gas-liquid reactions, the underlying conceptual framework is general and can be applied to transformations in other two-phase systems (solid-liquid, liquid-liquid, etc.).

Chemical kinetics and dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Creation of Speed-of-Sound Inject Data for Technical Nuclear Forensics

Technical Nuclear Forensics (TNF) exercises simulate a detonation of a nuclear device within the United States, usually in a city. Speed-of-sound (SOS) phenomenology are the atmospheric overpressure and ground shock mechanical motions that are observed at over-pressure (air-blast and infrasound) and seismic sensors, respectively (Figure 1). Amplitudes of SOS data are related to the explosive yield (Kinney and Graham, 1985; Koper et al., 2002; Bonner et al., 2013ab; Ford et al., 2014, 2021; Templeton et al., 2018; Schnurr et al., 2020). Within the country, the United States Prompt Diagnostics System (USPDS) includes a network of geophysical sensors to capture such SOS signals. During the TNF exercise, the event data will be analyzed by the players who know nothing about the technical details of the source (e.g. location, yield, explosive). Specifically, they will use the Integrated Yield Determination Tool (IYDT) to estimate the yield and height-of-burst or depth-of-burial (HOB/DOB). The IYDT allows the user to measure features on the overpressure and seismic channels, evaluate the consistency of features and jointly estimate yield and HOB/DOB. For these exercises, SOS data are simulated for the location, emplacement and yield of the device and signals are propagated to the observing stations. This document describes the steps undertaken in the simulation, validation, preparation and verification of SOS signals for TNF exercises.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spin Dynamics of Triple-𝐐 Magnetic Orderings in a Triangular Lattice: Implications for Multi-𝐐 Orderings in General Two-Dimensional Lattices

Multi-𝐐 magnetic structures on two-dimensional (2D) lattices provide a key route to realizing topological physics in 2D magnetism. A major experimental challenge is to unambiguously confirm their formation by excluding the possibility of topologically trivial multidomain single- or double-𝐐 magnetic orders, which cannot be distinguished using conventional diffraction techniques. Here, we propose that long-wavelength spin dynamics offers a universal diagnostic for triangular lattices: Triple-𝐐 orders that preserve rotational symmetry and single- or double-𝐐 orders that break it exhibit qualitatively distinct anisotropies in their Goldstone-mode velocities, stemming from fundamental differences in their underlying spin configurations. We validate this concept using the metallic triangular-lattice antiferromagnet Co 0.325 ⁢TaS 2 , which hosts both a stripe-type single-𝐐 state and a triple-𝐐 tetrahedral ordering at different temperatures. Using inelastic neutron-scattering and spin dynamics simulations, we first refine the spin Hamiltonian by fitting the paramagnetic excitation spectra, allowing us to develop an unbiased model independent of magnetic ordering. We then show that the observed velocity profiles of the Goldstone modes agree with the high-temperature model’s predictions: markedly anisotropic for the single-𝐐 phase and near isotropic for the triple-𝐐 phase. Importantly, this contrast persists across various exchange parameters, highlighting its model-independent nature and suggesting potential applicability to other 2D lattice systems. Beyond the long-wavelength regime, we present a substantial discrepancy between the measured and simulated magnon spectra exclusively in the triple-𝐐 phase. We attribute this discrepancy to magnon energy renormalization arising from order-of-magnitude-enhanced magnon-magnon interactions in the triple-𝐐 phase, due to its noncollinear configuration. This work provides universal insight into the dynamical properties of topological multi-𝐐 magnetic orderings in 2D lattice structures, offering a broadly applicable diagnostic to distinguishing them from topologically trivial single- or double-𝐐 counterparts. The unequivocal confirmation of the triple-𝐐 structure in Co 0.325 ⁢TaS 2 further establishes it as a prominent material platform for exploring topological spin textures in the genuine 2D limit.

Park, Pyeongjae [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3

Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the consistency between models and observations, this endeavor is becoming increasingly necessary to objectively synthesize the thousands of simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to date. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is an open-source Python software package that provides quick-look objective comparisons of ESMs with one another and with observations. The comparisons include metrics of large- to global-scale climatologies, tropical inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability modes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical modes of variability, regional monsoons, cloud radiative feedbacks, and high-frequency characteristics of simulated precipitation, including its extremes. The PMP comparison results are produced using all model simulations contributed to CMIP6 and earlier CMIP phases. An important objective of the PMP is to document the performance of ESMs participating in the recent phases of CMIP, together with providing version-controlled information for all datasets, software packages, and analysis codes being used in the evaluation process. Among other purposes, this also enables modeling groups to assess performance changes during the ESM development cycle in the context of the error distribution of the multi-model ensemble. Quantitative model evaluation provided by the PMP can assist modelers in their development priorities. In this paper, we provide an overview of the PMP, including its latest capabilities, and discuss its future direction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

XFEL SASE pulses can enhance time-dependent observables

Abstract X-ray free electron lasers (XFELs) have emerged as powerful sources of short and intense x-ray pulses. We propose a simple and robust procedure which takes advantage of the inherent stochasticity of self-amplified stimulated emission (SASE) pulses to enhance the time-resolution and signal strength of the recorded data. Notably, the proposed method is able to enhance the average signal without knowledge of the signal strength of individual shots. Simple metrics for the probe pulses are introduced, such as an effective pulse duration applicable to SASE pulses characterised in the time domain using e.g. an X-band transverse cavity. The approach is evaluated using simulated and real pulse data in the context of ultrafast electron dynamics in a molecule. Utilising H 2 as a model system, we demonstrate the efficacy of the method theoretically, successfully enhancing the predicted nonresonant ultrafast x-ray scattering signal associated with electron dynamics. The method presented is broadly applicable and offers a general strategy for enhancing time-dependent observables at XFELs.

data analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Building molecular model series from heterogeneous CryoEM structures using Gaussian mixture models and deep neural networks

Cryogenic electron microscopy (CryoEM) produces structures of macromolecules at near-atomic resolution. However, building molecular models with good stereochemical geometry from those structures can be challenging and time-consuming, especially when many structures are obtained from datasets with conformational heterogeneity. Here we present a model refinement protocol that automatically generates series of molecular models from CryoEM datasets, which describe the dynamics of the macromolecular system and have near-perfect geometry scores. This method makes it easier to interpret the movement of the protein complex from heterogeneity analysis and to compare the structural dynamics observed from CryoEM data with results from other experimental and simulation techniques.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

American WAKE Experiment (AWAKEN) Field Campaign Report

The American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) was a large-scale, international collaborative field campaign funded primarily by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office. Its main purpose was to gather detailed observations of wind farm-atmosphere interactions to improve understanding of wind farm physics, validate and improve simulation tools, lower uncertainties in wind farm modeling, understand environmental impacts, and ultimately reduce the cost and increase the reliability of wind energy systems. The campaign specifically focused on seven testable hypotheses that include characterizing wind turbine and wind farm wake effects, wind farm blockage, turbulent mixing, structural loading impacts, local environmental impacts, and testing wind farm control technologies. AWAKEN was a highly collaborative effort involving numerous agencies, including: DOE, through the Wind Energy Technologies Office and the Office of Science Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility, the U.S. Department of Commerce through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, many American universities, and internationally funded collaborators from Germany and Brazil.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Single-Molecule Fluorescence Microscopy Reveals Energy Transfer Active versus Inactive Nanocrystal/Dye Conjugate Pairs

Defect-mediated energy transfer (EnT) is a radiative process that occurs between donor defect states in the forbidden bandgap of semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs) and dye molecules bound to their surfaces. The EnT efficiency depends on the number of dye molecules attached to each NC, the donor–acceptor distance, and the dipole orientation factor between the donor and acceptor, all of which vary across all individual NCs in a sample. While ensemble-level fluorescence spectroscopy measurements have provided average values for donor–acceptor distances, dye-to-NC ratios, and EnT rate constants, questions remain about the impact of donor/acceptor heterogeneity on observed EnT efficiencies. Notably, ensemble-level measurements cannot distinguish between bare NCs and EnT-active versus inactive NC/dye pairs in the same sample batch, limiting the ability to design systems with 100% EnT efficiency. To address this, we studied defect-mediated EnT between AlexaFluor 555 dye acceptors chemically bound to ZnO NC donors at the level of single molecules and single NCs. Interestingly, 20% of bound NC/dye pairs are EnT-inactive, likely contributing to residual defect photoluminescence (PL) observed in ensemble-level measurements and reducing overall EnT efficiency. Single particle-level ZnO defect PL and acceptor fluorescence trajectories exhibited distinct microfluctuations, which are absent in bare ZnO NCs. We hypothesized that our observations can be explained with a competitive dye fluorescence quenching pathway, possibly due to charge transfer between the excited state dye and the ZnO NC. Numerical simulations of single-molecule PL traces for this scenario produced microfluctuations consistent with the experimental results. These findings highlight the impact of sample heterogeneity on EnT processes and provide insights for designing light-harvesting systems with optimized EnT efficiency.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction and Experimental Verification of Electrolyte Solvation Structure from an OMol25-Trained Interatomic Potential

A molecular-level understanding of electrolyte solvation structure and ion–ion correlations is critical to developing next-generation battery chemistries. Atomistic simulation capabilities with sufficient accuracy, speed, and transferability to deliver reliable structural insights while avoiding arduous system-specific reparameterization are thus highly desirable. Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) trained on large, chemically diverse data sets are revolutionizing computational chemistry, enabling molecular dynamics simulations of battery electrolytes with near-DFT accuracy over 10,000× faster than DFT. While previous MLIP training data sets with suitable elemental coverage for electrolytes have been based on inorganic materials, the Open Molecules 2025 (OMol25) data set provides large-scale molecular DFT MLIP training data with broad elemental coverage and specifically samples tens of millions of electrolyte configurations. Here, we integrate computational modeling with experimental validation to systematically assess the ability of large-scale MLIPs pretrained on materials data or on OMol25 to accurately resolve nanoscale structural organization and ion-solvation characteristics in Na-ion battery electrolytes across diverse physicochemical conditions and compositional regimes. We find that the OMol25-trained Universal Model of Atoms (UMA-OMol) predicts experimentally measured densities and X-ray structure factors in substantially better agreement compared to state-of-the-art models trained only on inorganic materials data. Using UMA-OMol, we further analyze systematic trends in solvation structure as a function of cation identity, anion chemistry, salt concentration, and solvent topology. We observe that increasing system temperature amplifies the heterogeneity within the solvation environment, perturbing cation–solvent interactions and promoting the formation of contact ion pairs (CIPs). Moreover, subtle variations in the solvent topology of glyme-based electrolytes cause pronounced changes in ion correlations and solvation structure. The experimental agreement and microscopic insights shown here position OMol25-trained MLIPs as a practical route to predictive, high-throughput electrolyte simulations beyond the limits of classical force fields and direct DFT molecular dynamics, serving as a powerful tool for accelerating the design of next-generation Na-ion battery electrolytes and beyond.

MLIPs↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Machine Learning Bias Correction on Large–Scale Environment of High–Impact Weather Systems in E3SM Atmosphere Model

Large–scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes are common environmental drivers of high–impact weather systems causing extreme weather events. However, such large–scale environmental conditions often display systematic biases in climate simulations, posing challenges to evaluating high–impact weather systems and extreme weather events. In this paper, a machine learning (ML) approach was employed to bias correct the large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity simulated by the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) at ~1° resolution. The usefulness of the ML approach for extreme weather analysis was demonstrated with a focus on three high–impact weather systems, including tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). We show that the ML model can effectively reduce climate bias in large–scale wind, temperature, and humidity while preserving their responses to imposed climate change perturbations. The bias correction is found to directly improve water vapor transport associated with ARs, and representations of thermodynamical flows associated with ETCs. When the bias–corrected large–scale winds are used to drive a synthetic TC track forecast model over the Atlantic basin, the resulting TC track density agrees better with that of the TC track model driven by observed winds. In addition, the ML model insignificantly interferes with the mean climate change signals of large–scale storm environments as well as the occurrence and intensity of three weather systems. This study suggests that the proposed ML approach can be used to improve the downscaling of extreme weather events by providing more realistic large–scale storm environments simulated by low–resolution climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights Into Seismicity Associated With Flexibly Operating Enhanced Geothermal System From Real‐Time Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) have the capacity to broaden the accessible resource pool for geothermal power generation. Traditionally viewed as a “baseload” resource, their flexible operation might also enable dispatchable load‐following generation and long‐term energy storage, aligning them with the evolving landscape of decarbonized electricity systems. However, increasing permeability and extracting energy during EGS operations can induce microseismic events; for many prior EGS efforts, some associated seismicity has been observed. While energetically beneficial, the flexibility of EGS operations prompts our inquiry into whether new types of operations will yield previously unseen seismicity patterns. We demonstrate the use of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) with real‐time edge computing to monitor seismicity during a pilot test of a cyclically operated EGS facility at the Blue Mountain geothermal field. Our focus lies in uncovering seismicity insights from the real‐time microseismic catalog, particularly during load‐following dispatchability tests simulating flexible EGS operation. Here, we find that variations in pore pressure consistently correlate with seismicity, and that controlling pressure cycles during flexible operations appears to constrain microseismic activity during subsequent cycles. The spatio‐temporal evolution of microseismic clouds recorded during cyclic injection cycles fits diffusive models over our available observation period. Additionally, seismicity elevation lags behind pore pressure increases, likely due to pressure diffusion to the fracture system boundary. Through real‐time monitoring, we offer novel insights into seismicity associated with flexibly operating EGS. Our findings suggest that leveraging DAS and edge computing can inform EGS operations and help mitigate induced seismicity.

Chamarczuk, Michal [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physics-aware adaptive checkpointing with shadow systems for nonlinear PDE simulations

Large-scale simulations of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) that exhibit strongly transient behavior and pattern-forming dynamics produce enormous amounts of data, which, even with modern storage systems, cannot be stored for later curation. Current I/O strategies either write dense time series of snapshots, which is often prohibitive in I/O and storage, or store a few checkpoints that enable restart but incur expensive recomputation cost and provide no control over post-restart error growth, especially when lossy compression is used. Moreover, most, if not all, existing strategies take no account of the actual physical state of the system. Here, we present a simple physics-aware I/O framework in which a low-cost shadow system adaptively triggers lossy checkpoints when the shadow system deviates from the fine-scale simulation. The shadow system can be a coarsened replica of the fine-scale simulation that evolves concurrently. This means that checkpoints are taken based on the physical state of the system: fewer checkpoints are triggered when the system is quiescent while more are taken when the system undergoes a rapid change. This type of behavior is observed in many systems such as Brusselator and FitzHugh–Nagumo. We illustrate that our framework maintains stable restarts, keeps fine-scale restart errors bounded by shadow errors, and reconstructs the time history with significantly lower error and storage than interpolating fixed-interval snapshots, with low-cost shadow replay and modest online synchronization overhead.

Gong, Qian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000235704142)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling hyperbranched polymer formation via ATRP using dissipative particle dynamics

Hyperbranched polymers (HBPs) offer distinguishing, advantageous properties that arise from their distinctive complex topology. One of the effective approaches to the synthesis of hyperbranched structures involves the use of a branching initiator (inibramer) that is activated only after incorporation into a polymer chain. There remain, however, challenges in determining and characterizing the structures of the synthesized HBPs. Dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) was used to probe the effects of inibramer concentration, solvent concentration, and inibramer reactivity on the kinetics, molecular weight, and dispersity of HBPs. Additionally, DPD allows for direct observation of branched structures, which was not possible in previously reported Monte Carlo type simulations. It was found that higher inibramer concentrations led to faster monomer consumption while forming more dendritic structures with fewer defects. Additionally, high dispersities characteristic of HBP systems were found to originate from asymmetric propagation rates between inibramer-inibramer and inibramer-monomer reactions.

Biswas, Santidan↗
DOE OSTI2025

California annual grass phenology and allometry influence ecosystem dynamics and fire regime in a vegetation demography model

Grass-dominated ecosystems cover wide areas of the land surface yet have received far less attention from the Earth System Model (ESM) community. This limits model projections of ecosystem dynamics in response to global change and coupled vegetation–climate dynamics. We used the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a dynamic vegetation demography model, to determine ecosystem sensitivity to alternate, observed grass allometries and biophysical traits, and evaluated model performance in capturing California C 3 annual grasslands structure and fire regimes. Grass allometry, leaf physiology, plant phenology, and plant mortality all drove the seasonal variation in matter and energy exchange and fire dynamics in California annual grasslands. Allometry influenced grassland structure and function mainly through canopy architecture-mediated space and light competition instead of through carbon partitioning strategy. Regional variation in grassland annual burned area was driven by variation in ecosystem productivity. Our study advances the modeling of grassy ecosystems in ESMs by establishing the importance of grass allometry and plant phenology and mortality in driving C 3 annual grassland seasonal dynamics and fire regime. The calibrated annual grass allometry and biophysical traits presented can be applied in future studies to project climate–vegetation–fire feedbacks in annual grass-dominant ecosystems under global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗