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At least 253 records · Page 14

Optimally robust redundancy relations for failure detection in uncertain systems

All failure detection methods are based, either explicitly or implicitly, on the use of redundancy, i.e. on (possibly dynamic) relations among the measured variables. The robustness of the failure detection process consequently depends to a great degree on the reliability of the redundancy relations, which in turn is affected by the inevitable presence of model uncertainties. In this paper the problem of determining redundancy relations that are optimally robust is addressed in a sense that includes several major issues of importance in practical failure detection and that provides a significant amount of intuition concerning the geometry of robust failure detection. A procedure is given involving the construction of a single matrix and its singular value decomposition for the determination of a complete sequence of redundancy relations, ordered in terms of their level of robustness. This procedure also provides the basis for comparing levels of robustness in redundancy provided by different sets of sensors.

Lou, X.-C.↗

An optimal GPS data processing technique for precise positioning

A mathematical formula to optimally combine dual-frequency GPS pseudorange and carrier phase (integrated Doppler) data streams into a single data stream is derived in closed form. The data combination reduces the data volume and computing time in the filtering process for parameter estimation by a factor of 4 while preserving the full data strength for precise positioning. The resulting single data stream is that of carrier phase measurements with both data noise and bias uncertainty strictly defined. With this mathematical formula the single stream of optimally combined GPS measurements can be efficiently formed by simple numerical calculations. Carrier phase ambiguity resolution, when feasible, is strengthened due to the preserved full data strength with the optimally combined data and the resulting longer wavelength for the ambiguity to be resolved.

Wu, Sien-Chong↗

Robust eigenstructure assignment by a projection method: Application using multiple optimization criteria

New ideas which lead to feedback control laws for large flexible structures which are insensitive to model uncertainty are presented. A pole placement method is presented which leads to near-unitary closed loop eigenvectors, and a new method is introduced to design the control while simultaneously considering three competing measures of optimality. Robustness versus Integral algorithms are applicable to at least moderately high-dimensioned systems. In the present discussion, controls for two coupled flexible bodies are considered. A 6x24 gain matrix is designed to control a 12 modes system using 6 actuators. Researchers also developed control laws for the R2P2 simulator at Martin Marietta; in this case 3 actuators are used to control a 12th order system. Simulation studies indicate that researchers indeed achieved robust designs without significant difficulties associated with spillover into the uncontrolled modes. Here, several key ideas and numerical results are given. In the references, details of the formulation, discussions of salient features, and connection to the availiable literature are given.

Junkins, J. L.↗

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). Shortwave aerosol radiative kernels (Jacobians) were derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The total uncertainty is shown to be dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5).

Tyler James Thorsen↗

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). Shortwave aerosol radiative kernels (Jacobians) were derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The total uncertainty is shown to be dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5).

Tyler James Thorsen↗

Efficient Evaluation and Optimization of Structural Reliability

Use of approximations for calculating the structural failure probability under uncertainties is a necessary aspect. But efficient use of suitable approximations at different stages of reliability prediction and design makes this valuable tool practical for many large scale structures. This research addresses the modern approximation concepts and their utility in structural reliability estimation. Emphasis is placed on building higher order approximations using intervening variables to closely represent the nonlinear limit state functions. Several test problems with highly nonlinear performance functions are used to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. Many of the structural problems are modeled and simulated using the finite element methods (FEM) for obtaining a detailed structural response. FEM is a computationally intensive numerical procedure with a large number of degrees of freedom. With an increase in the complexity of the structural model and the multidisciplinary nature of analyses, the number of limit states and their computation increases very significantly. The requirement of frequent repetitive analysis of the structure hinders the utility of any tool and discourages that approach from being used. One particular tool which faces this difficulty is the computation of the structural reliability under parametric uncertainties.

Grandhi, Ramana V.↗

Multifidelity Analysis and Optimization for Supersonic Design

Supersonic aircraft design is a computationally expensive optimization problem and multifidelity approaches over a significant opportunity to reduce design time and computational cost. This report presents tools developed to improve supersonic aircraft design capabilities including: aerodynamic tools for supersonic aircraft configurations; a systematic way to manage model uncertainty; and multifidelity model management concepts that incorporate uncertainty. The aerodynamic analysis tools developed are appropriate for use in a multifidelity optimization framework, and include four analysis routines to estimate the lift and drag of a supersonic airfoil, a multifidelity supersonic drag code that estimates the drag of aircraft configurations with three different methods: an area rule method, a panel method, and an Euler solver. In addition, five multifidelity optimization methods are developed, which include local and global methods as well as gradient-based and gradient-free techniques.

Kroo, Ilan↗

Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF)

As remote sensing for scientific purposes has transitioned from an experimental technology to an operational one, the selection of instruments has become more coordinated, so that the scientific community can exploit complementary measurements. However, tech nological and scientific heterogeneity across devices means that the statistical characteristics of the data they collect are different. The challenge addressed here is how to combine heterogeneous remote sensing data sets in a way that yields optimal statistical estimates of the underlying geophysical field, and provides rigorous uncertainty measures for those estimates. Different remote sensing data sets may have different spatial resolutions, different measurement error biases and variances, and other disparate characteristics. A state-of-the-art spatial statistical model was used to relate the true, but not directly observed, geophysical field to noisy, spatial aggregates observed by remote sensing instruments. The spatial covariances of the true field and the covariances of the true field with the observations were modeled. The observations are spatial averages of the true field values, over pixels, with different measurement noise superimposed. A kriging framework is used to infer optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at point locations from pixel-level, noisy observations. A key feature of the spatial statistical model is the spatial mixed effects model that underlies it. The approach models the spatial covariance function of the underlying field using linear combinations of basis functions of fixed size. Approaches based on kriging require the inversion of very large spatial covariance matrices, and this is usually done by making simplifying assumptions about spatial covariance structure that simply do not hold for geophysical variables. In contrast, this method does not require these assumptions, and is also computationally much faster. This method is fundamentally different than other approaches to data fusion for remote sensing data because it is inferential rather than merely descriptive. All approaches combine data in a way that minimizes some specified loss function. Most of these are more or less ad hoc criteria based on what looks good to the eye, or some criteria that relate only to the data at hand.

Braverman, Amy J.↗

Discrete-time entropy formulation of optimal and adaptive control problems

The discrete-time version of the entropy formulation of optimal control of problems developed by G. N. Saridis (1988) is discussed. Given a dynamical system, the uncertainty in the selection of the control is characterized by the probability distribution (density) function which maximizes the total entropy. The equivalence between the optimal control problem and the optimal entropy problem is established, and the total entropy is decomposed into a term associated with the certainty equivalent control law, the entropy of estimation, and the so-called equivocation of the active transmission of information from the controller to the estimator. This provides a useful framework for studying the certainty equivalent and adaptive control laws.

Tsai, Yweting A.↗

Structural modelling and control design under incomplete parameter information: The maximum-entropy approach

A stochastic structural control model is described. In contrast to the customary deterministic model, the stochastic minimum data/maximum entropy model directly incorporates the least possible a priori parameter information. The approach is to adopt this model as the basic design model, thus incorporating the effects of parameter uncertainty at a fundamental level, and design mean-square optimal controls (that is, choose the control law to minimize the average of a quadratic performance index over the parameter ensemble).

Hyland, D. C.↗

A design methodology for robust failure detection and isolation

A decentralized failure detection and isolation (FDI) methodology, which is robust with respect to model uncertainties and noise, is presented Redundancy metrics are developed, and optimization problems are posed for the choices of robust parity relations. Closed-form solutions for some special failure cases are given. Connections are drawn with other disciplines, and the use of the metrics to evaluate alternative FDI schemes is discussed.

Pattipati, K. R.↗

Robust control of an active precision truss structure

A description is given of the efforts in control of an active precision truss structure experiment. The control objective is to provide vibration suppression to selected modes of the structure subject to a bandlimited disturbance and modeling errors. Based on performance requirements and an uncertainty description, several control laws using the H-infinity optimization method are synthesized. The controllers are implemented on the experimental facility. Preliminary experimental results are presented.

Chu, C. C.↗

Design of Quiet Rotorcraft Approach Trajectories: Verification Phase

Flight testing that is planned for October 2010 will provide an opportunity to evaluate rotorcraft trajectory optimization techniques. The flight test will involve a fully instrumented MD-902 helicopter, which will be flown over an array of microphones. In this work, the helicopter approach trajectory is optimized via a multiobjective genetic algorithm to improve community noise, passenger comfort, and pilot acceptance. Previously developed optimization strategies are modified to accommodate new helicopter data and to increase pilot acceptance. This paper describes the MD-902 trajectory optimization plus general optimization strategies and modifications that are needed to reduce the uncertainty in noise predictions. The constraints that are imposed by the flight test conditions and characteristics of the MD-902 helicopter limit the testing possibilities. However, the insights that will be gained through this research will prove highly valuable.

Padula, Sharon L.↗

Data-Analysis System for Entry, Descent, and Landing

A report describes the Entry Descent Landing Data Analysis (EDA), which is a system of signal-processing software and computer hardware for acquiring status data conveyed by multiple-frequency-shift-keying tone signals transmitted by a spacecraft during descent to the surface of a remote planet. The design of the EDA meets the challenge of processing weak, fluctuating signals that are Doppler-shifted by amounts that are only partly predictable. The software supports both real-time and post processing. The software performs fast-Fourier-transform integration, parallel frequency tracking with prediction, and mapping of detected tones to specific events. The use of backtrack and refinement parallel-processing threads helps to minimize data gaps. The design affords flexibility to enable division of a descent track into segments, within each of which the EDA is configured optimally for processing in the face of signal conditions and uncertainties. A dynamic-lock-state feature enables the detection of signals using minimum required computing power less when signals are steadily detected, more when signals fluctuate. At present, the hardware comprises eight dual-processor personal-computer modules and a server. The hardware is modular, making it possible to increase computing power by adding computers.

Pham, Timothy↗

Error Analysis and Selection of Optimal Excitation Parameters for the Sensing of CO2 and O2 from Space for ASCENDS Applications

Simulation studies to optimize sensing of CO2 and O2 from space are described. Uncertainties in line-by-line calculations unaccounted for in previous studies identified. Multivariate methods are employed for measurement wavelengths selection. The Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) recommended by NRC Decadal Survey has a stringent accuracy requirements of 0.5% or better in XCO2 retrievals. NASA LaRC and its partners are investigating the use of the 1.57 m band of CO2 and the 1.26-1.27 m band of oxygen for XCO2 measurements. As part of these efforts, we are carrying out simulation studies using a lidar modeling framework being developed at NASA LaRC to predict the performance of our proposed ASCENDS mission implementation [1]. Our study is aimed at predicting the sources and magnitudes of errors anticipated in XCO2 retrievals for further error minimization through the selection of optimum excitation parameters and development of better retrieval methods.

Pliutau, Denis↗

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Prediction↗

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-­‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-­‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-­‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗