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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14

Tightly-coupled camera/LiDAR integration for point cloud generation from GNSS/INS-assisted UAV mapping systems

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with integrated global navigation satellite systems/inertial navigation systems (GNSS/INS) together with cameras and/or LiDAR sensors are being widely used for topographic mapping in a variety of applications such as precision agriculture, coastal monitoring, and archaeological documentation. Integration of image-based and LiDAR point clouds can provide a comprehensive 3D model of the area of interest. For such integration, ensuring a good alignment between data from the different sources is critical. Although many works have been conducted on this topic, there is still a need for a rigorous integration approach that minimizes the discrepancy between camera and LiDAR data caused by inaccurate system calibration parameters and/or trajectory artifacts. This study proposes an automated tightly-coupled camera/LiDAR integration workflow for GNSS/INS-assisted UAV systems. The proposed strategy is conducted in three main steps. First, an image-based point cloud is generated using a LiDAR/GNSS/INS-assisted structure from motion (SfM) strategy. Then, feature correspondences between image-based and LiDAR point clouds are automatically identified. Finally, an integrated-bundle adjustment procedure including image points, LiDAR raw measurements, and GNSS/INS information is conducted to minimize the discrepancy between point clouds from different sensors while estimating system calibration parameters and refining the trajectory information. The proposed SfM strategy and integration framework are evaluated using five datasets. The SfM results show that using LiDAR data can facilitate feature matching and further increase the number of reconstructed 3D points. The experimental results also illustrate that the developed automated camera/LiDAR integration strategy is capable of accurately estimating system calibration parameters to achieve good alignment among camera/LiDAR data from single/multiple systems. Finally, an absolute accuracy in the range of 3–5 cm is achieved for the image/LiDAR point clouds after the integration process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Deriving Simulation Parameters for Storage-Type Water Heaters Using Ratings Data Produced from the Uniform Energy Factor Test Procedure: Preprint

Building energy modeling (BEM) is commonly used to estimate the energy usage of residential buildings. Uses for BEM include calculating home energy ratings, demonstrating compliance with performance-based energy codes, and establishing whether designs meet voluntary program requirements, such as ENERGY STAR® qualified homes. BEM requires simulating subsystems within the building, including storage-type water heaters. To properly simulate the in-situ performance of residential storage water heaters, it is necessary to determine key water heater parameters, including the overall heat loss coefficient (UA) and conversion efficiency (?c) of the water heater, based on the rated efficiency of the water heater. The testing procedure and rating standard for residential water heaters have recently changed: the new rating standard provides a Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) rather than the Energy Factor (EF) used previously. This paper discusses how to derive the necessary model parameters from the ratings data produced from the latest test procedure.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Lambda-PFLOTRAN 1.0: a workflow for incorporating organic matter chemistry informed by ultra high resolution mass spectrometry into biogeochemical modeling

Abstract. Organic matter (OM) composition plays a central role in microbial respiration of dissolved organic matter and subsequent biogeochemical reactions. Here, a direct connection of organic matter chemistry and thermodynamics to reactive transport simulators has been achieved through the newly developed Lambda-PFLOTRAN workflow tool that succinctly incorporates carbon chemistry data generated from Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) into reaction networks to simulate organic matter degradation and the resulting biogeochemistry. Lambda-PFLOTRAN is a Python-based workflow, executed through a Jupyter notebook interface, that digests raw FTICR-MS data, develops a representative reaction network based on substrate-explicit thermodynamic modeling (also termed lambda modeling due to its key thermodynamic parameter λ used therein), and completes a biogeochemical simulation with the open source, reactive flow and transport code PFLOTRAN. The workflow consists of the following five steps: configuration, thermodynamic (lambda) analysis, sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation, and simulation output and visualization. Two test cases are provided to demonstrate the functionality of the Lambda-PFLOTRAN workflow. The first test case uses laboratory incubation data of temporal oxygen depletion to fit lambda parameters (i.e., maximum utilization rate and microbial carrying capacity). A slightly more complex second test case fits multiple lambda formulation and soil organic matter release parameters to temporal greenhouse gas generation measured during a soil incubation. Overall, the Lambda-PFLOTRAN workflow facilitates upscaling by using molecular-scale characterization to inform biogeochemical processes occurring at larger scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Artificial Neural Network-Based Monitoring of the Fuel Assembly Temperature Sensor and FPGA Implementation

Numerous methods have been developed around the world to model the dynamic behavior and detect a faulty operating mode of a temperature sensor. In this context, we present in this study a new method based on the dependence between the fuel assembly temperature profile on control rods positions, and the coolant flow rate in a nuclear reactor. This seems to be possible since the insertion of control rods at different axial positions and variations in flow rate of the reactor coolant results in different produced thermal power in the reactor. This is closely linked to the instant fuel rod temperature profile. In a first step, we selected parameters to be used and confirmed the adequate correlation between the chosen parameters and those to be estimated by the proposed monitoring system. In the next step, we acquired and de-noised the data of corresponding parameters, the qualified data is then used to design and train the artificial neural network. The effective data denoising was done by using the wavelet transform to remove a various kind of artifacts such as inherent noise. With the suitable choice of wavelet level and smoothing method, it was possible for us to remove all the non-required artifacts with a view to verify and analyze the considered signal. In our work, several potential mother wavelet functions (Haar, Daubechies, Bi-orthogonal, Reverse Bi-orthogonal, Discrete Meyer and Symlets) were investigated to find the most similar function with the being processed signals. To implement the proposed monitoring system for the fuel rod temperature sensor (03 wire RTD sensor), we used the Bayesian artificial neural network 'BNN' technique to model the dynamic behavior of the considered sensor, the system correlate the estimated values with the measured for the concretization of the proposed system we propose an FPGA (field programmable gate array) implementation. The monitoring system use the correlation. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Wavelet and Deep-Learning-Based Approach for Generation System Problematic Parameters Identification and Calibration

Accurate models of generation systems are critical for maintaining reliable and secure grid operations. In this paper, a novel and systematic approach is proposed to identify and calibrate the generation system problematic parameters using continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and advanced deep-learning technology. The phasor measurement unit (PMU) data are used through “event playback” to check whether the parameter calibration is required, and if yes, a group of suspicious parameters will be identified as the primary problematic parameter candidates (PPCs). These primary PPCs are randomly perturbed to generate the event playback simulation data, which are used by the CWT and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to further narrow down the primary PPCs into a smaller set of candidates. Then, the identified candidates are perturbed again to generate massive event playback simulation data for training a parameter calibration neural network. Here, we designed a multi-output neural network structure to find the mappings between the perturbed parameters and the simulation data using both CNN and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. Finally, the well-trained and tested CNN-LSTM model is used to estimate the accurate value of the suspicious parameters with actual PMU measurements. The proposed CNN-LSTM network can accurately and reliably estimate the generation-system problematic parameters, and has better performance when compared to other machine-learning methods, such as the multilayer perceptron network and the conditional variational autoencoder method. The accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed approach have been validated through simulation and real-world data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Fast automated analysis of strong gravitational lenses with convolutional neural networks

Quantifying image distortions caused by strong gravitational lensing—the formation of multiple images of distant sources due to the deflection of their light by the gravity of intervening structures—and estimating the corresponding matter distribution of these structures (the ‘gravitational lens’) has primarily been performed using maximum likelihood modelling of observations. Our procedure is typically time- and resource-consuming, requiring sophisticated lensing codes, several data preparation steps, and finding the maximum likelihood model parameters in a computationally expensive process with downhill optimizers. Accurate analysis of a single gravitational lens can take up to a few weeks and requires expert knowledge of the physical processes and methods involved. Tens of thousands of new lenses are expected to be discovered with the upcoming generation of ground and space surveys. We report the use of deep convolutional neural networks to estimate lensing parameters in an extremely fast and automated way, circumventing the difficulties that are faced by maximum likelihood methods. We also show that the removal of lens light can be made fast and automated using independent component analysis of multi-filter imaging data. Our networks can recover the parameters of the ‘singular isothermal ellipsoid’ density profile, which is commonly used to model strong lensing systems, with an accuracy comparable to the uncertainties of sophisticated models but about ten million times faster: 100 systems in approximately one second on a single graphics processing unit. These networks can provide a way for non-experts to obtain estimates of lensing parameters for large samples of data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prospective CO 2 saline resource estimation methodology: Refinement of existing US-DOE-NETL methods based on data availability

Carbon storage resource estimation in subsurface saline formations plays an important role in establishing the scale of carbon capture and storage activities for governmental policy and commercial project decision-making. Prospective CO 2 resource estimation of large regions or subregions, such as a basin, occurs at the initial screening stages of a project using only limited publicly available geophysical data, i.e. prior to project-specific site selection data generation. As the scale of investigation is narrowed and selected areas and formations are identified, prospective CO 2 resource estimation can be refined and uncertainty narrowed when site-specific geophysical data are available. Here, we refine the United States Department of Energy – National Energy Technology Laboratory (US-DOE-NETL) methodology as the scale of investigation is narrowed from very large regional assessments down to selected areas and formations that may be developed for commercial storage. In addition, we present a new notation that explicitly identifies differences between data availability and data sources used for geologic parameters and efficiency factors as the scale of investigation is narrowed. This CO 2 resource estimation method is available for screening formations in a tool called CO 2 -SCREEN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of Transport and Kinetic Parameters of Vanadium Redox Batteries Using Static Cells

Mathematical models of Redox Flow Batteries (RFBs) can be used to analyze cell performance, optimize battery operation, and control the energy storage system efficiently. Among many other models, physics-based electrochemical models are capable of predicting internal states of the battery, such as temperature, state-of-charge, and state-of-health. In the models, estimating parameters is an important step that can study, analyze, and validate the models using experimental data. A common practice is to determine these parameters either through conducting experiments or based on the information available in the literature. However, it is not easy to investigate all proper parameters for the models through this way, and there are occasions when important information, such as diffusion coefficients and rate constants of ions, has not been studied. Also, the parameters needed for modeling charge-discharge are not always available. In this paper, an efficient way to estimate parameters of physics-based redox battery models will be proposed. Furthermore, this paper also demonstrates that the proposed approach can study and analyze aspects of capacity loss/fade, kinetics, and transport phenomena of the RFB system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Extrapolation of systemic bioavailability assessing skin absorption and epidermal and hepatic metabolism of aromatic amine hair dyes in vitro

Approaches to assess the role of absorption, metabolism and excretion of cosmetic ingredients that are based on the integration of different in vitro data are important for their safety assessment, specifically as it offers an opportunity to refine that safety assessment. In order to estimate systemic exposure (AUC) to aromatic amine hair dyes following typical product application conditions, skin penetration and epidermal and systemic metabolic conversion of the parent compound was assessed in human skin explants and human keratinocyte (HaCaT) and hepatocyte cultures. To estimate the amount of the aromatic amine that can reach the general circulation unchanged after passage through the skin the following toxicokinetically relevant parameters were applied: a) Michaelis–Menten kinetics to quantify the epidermal metabolism; b) the estimated keratinocyte cell abundance in the viable epidermis; c) the skin penetration rate; d) the calculated Mean Residence Time in the viable epidermis; e) the viable epidermis thickness and f) the skin permeability coefficient. In a next step, in vitro hepatocyte K{sub m} and V{sub max} values and whole liver mass and cell abundance were used to calculate the scaled intrinsic clearance, which was combined with liver blood flow and fraction of compound unbound in the blood to give hepatic clearance. The systemic exposure in the general circulation (AUC) was extrapolated using internal dose and hepatic clearance, and C{sub max} was extrapolated (conservative overestimation) using internal dose and volume of distribution, indicating that appropriate toxicokinetic information can be generated based solely on in vitro data. For the hair dye, p-phenylenediamine, these data were found to be in the same order of magnitude as those published for human volunteers. - Highlights: • An entirely in silico/in vitro approach to predict in vivo exposure to dermally applied hair dyes • Skin penetration and epidermal conversion assessed in human skin explants and HaCaT • Systemic metabolism was modeled using hepatocyte cultures. • Toxicokinetically relevant parameters were applied to estimate systemic exposure. • There was a good agreement between in vitro and in vivo data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Land-surface parameter optimisation using data assimilation techniques: the adJULES system V1.0

Land-surface models (LSMs) are crucial components of the Earth system models (ESMs) that are used to make coupled climate–carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used in the climate and weather forecast models of the UK Met Office. JULES is also extensively used offline as a land-surface impacts tool, forced with climatologies into the future. In this study, JULES is automatically differentiated with respect to JULES parameters using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or adjoint, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed to search for locally optimum parameters by calibrating against observations. This paper describes adJULES in a data assimilation framework and demonstrates its ability to improve the model–data fit using eddy-covariance measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. adJULES also has the ability to calibrate over multiple sites simultaneously. This feature is used to define new optimised parameter values for the five plant functional types (PFTs) in JULES. The optimised PFT-specific parameters improve the performance of JULES at over 85 % of the sites used in the study, at both the calibration and evaluation stages. Furthermore, the new improved parameters for JULES are presented along with the associated uncertainties for each parameter.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rate equation model of laser induced bias in uranium isotope ratios measured by resonance ionization mass spectrometry

Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry (RIMS) has been developed as a method to measure uranium isotope abundances. In this approach, RIMS is used as an element-selective ionization process between uranium atoms and potential isobars without the aid of chemical purification and separation. The use of broad bandwidth lasers with automated feedback control of wavelength was applied to the measurement of the U-235/U-238 ratio to decrease laser-induced isotopic fractionation. In application, isotope standards are used to identify and correct bias in measured isotope ratios, but understanding laser-induced bias from first-principles can improve the precision and accuracy of experimental measurements. A rate equation model for predicting the relative ionization probability has been developed to study the effect of variations in laser parameters on the measured isotope ratio. The model uses atomic data and empirical descriptions of laser performance to estimate the laser-induced bias expected in experimental measurements of the U-235/U-238 ratio. Empirical corrections are also included to account for ionization processes that are difficult to calculate from first principles with the available atomic data. Development of this model has highlighted several important considerations for properly interpreting experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Kinetics of simultaneous hydrodesulfurization and hydrodenitrogenation reactions using CoMoP/Al 2 O 3 and NiMoP/Al 2 O 3

Hydrodesulfurization (HDS) is a key reaction to achieve diesel production at the specified low sulfur levels and is highly affected by a competing reaction involving nitrogen removal through hydrodenitrogenation (HDN). This work evaluated kinetic parameters of simultaneous reactions of HDS of dibenzothiophene (DBT) and HDN of quinoline (Q) using CoMoP/Al 2 O 3 and NiMoP/Al 2 O 3 catalysts under operational conditions that allow a wide range of reagent conversions. Estimated parameters were evaluated using rigorous statistical 2 analysis. Good fits for the evaluated experimental data were provided by both power-law and Langmuir-Hinshelwood models. Further, turnover frequency values highlight adsorption and competition effects between nitrogen-containing compounds and sulfur-containing compounds. NiMoP catalyst showed higher hydrogenating power than CoMoP, with larger absolute value of the estimated adsorption enthalpy (-120 kJ.mol -1 for NiMoP and -75 kJ.mol -1 for CoMoP), suggesting strong adsorption of nitrogen compounds. A catalyst with more hydrogenating power is also more capable of performing both HDN and HDS reactions simultaneously.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Convergence in simulating global soil organic carbon by structurally different models after data assimilation

Abstract Current biogeochemical models produce carbon–climate feedback projections with large uncertainties, often attributed to their structural differences when simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics worldwide. However, choices of model parameter values that quantify the strength and represent properties of different soil carbon cycle processes could also contribute to model simulation uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of using common observational data in reducing model uncertainty in estimates of global SOC storage. Two structurally different models featuring distinctive carbon pools, decomposition kinetics, and carbon transfer pathways simulate opposite global SOC distributions with their customary parameter values yet converge to similar results after being informed by the same global SOC database using a data assimilation approach. The converged spatial SOC simulations result from similar simulations in key model components such as carbon transfer efficiency, baseline decomposition rate, and environmental effects on carbon fluxes by these two models after data assimilation. Moreover, data assimilation results suggest equally effective simulations of SOC using models following either first‐order or Michaelis–Menten kinetics at the global scale. Nevertheless, a wider range of data with high‐quality control and assurance are needed to further constrain SOC dynamics simulations and reduce unconstrained parameters. New sets of data, such as microbial genomics‐function relationships, may also suggest novel structures to account for in future model development. Overall, our results highlight the importance of observational data in informing model development and constraining model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Substrate Utilization, Metabolite Production, and Uranium Immobilization in Shewanella oneidensis Biofilms

In this study, we developed a two-dimensional mathematical model to predict substrate utilization and metabolite production rates in Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 biofilm in the presence and absence of uranium (U). In our model, lactate and fumarate are used as the electron donor and the electron acceptor, respectively. The model includes the production of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). The EPS bound to the cell surface and the EPS distributed in the biofilm were considered bound EPS (bEPS) and loosely associated EPS (laEPS), respectively. COMSOL ® Multiphysics finite element analysis software was used to solve the model numerically (model file provided in the Supplementary Material). The input variables of the model were the lactate and fumarate concentrations, cell density, EPS density, half saturation constant for fumarate, and diffusion coefficients of the substrates and metabolites. To estimate unknown parameters and calibrate the model, we used a custom designed biofilm reactor placed inside a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) microimaging and spectroscopy system and measured substrate utilization and metabolite production rates. From these data we estimated the yield coefficients, maximum substrate utilization rate, half saturation constant for lactate, stoichiometric ratio of fumarate and acetate to lactate and stoichiometric ratio of succinate to fumarate. These parameters are critical to predicting the activity of biofilms and are not available in the literature. Lastly, the model was used to predict uranium immobilization in S. oneidensis MR-1 biofilms by considering reduction and adsorption processes in the cells and in the EPS. We found that the majority of immobilization was due to cells, and that EPS were less efficient at immobilizing U. Furthermore, most of the immobilization occurred within the top 10 µm of the biofilm. To the best of our knowledge, this research is one of the first biofilm immobilization mathematical models based on experimental observation. It has the ability to predict the relative contributions to U immobilization of laEPS, bEPS and cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Machine Learning Based System Performance Prediction Model for Transportable FHR

A machine learning based system performance prediction model is currently created to support the development of autonomous control for small reactors, such as the Transportable Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (TFHR), which has a 20 MWth compact core proposed by MIT for remote sites. The prediction model is constructed using support vector regression (SVR) with training data generated by RELAP5. A particle filtering framework is utilized to estimate and update model parameters with instrument measurements. Verifications of the prediction and filtering models have been carried out using TFHR reactivity insertion cases. Satisfactory performance in predicting the core behavior and in recognizing the inserted reactivity rate is concluded. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation

Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗