Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Parameterization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

MX precipitate behavior in an irradiated advanced Fe-9Cr steel: Self-ion irradiation effects on phase stability

In an effort to optimize Fe-9Cr reduced activation ferritic/martensitic (RAFM) steels and to inform the design and operation of fusion reactors, this work represents the first in a series of cohesive studies dedicated to the evolution of MX-TiC precipitates under accelerated single and dual ion irradiations. This study investigates CNA9, a simplified Fe-9Cr RAFM steel featuring initial MX-TiC precipitate densities of (2.3±0.3)×10²¹ m⁻³. This material was subjected to single self-ion irradiation at damage levels ranging from 1 to 100 displacements per atom (dpa) over a temperature range of 300 to 600°C, with a nominal dose rate of 7×10⁻⁴ dpa/s. Irradiation-induced coarsening was observed, as evidenced by statistically significant increases in mean diameter sizes, at 15 dpa at both 500°C and 600°C, whereas no coarsening was noted at 300°C or 400°C. Further, complete dissolution of precipitates occurred at damage levels of 50 and 100 dpa across the two temperatures tested (300°C and 500°C) while no significant changes were observed at any doses below 15 dpa at 500°C. Experimentally parameterized recoil resolution modeling suggests that the observed radiation stability of MX-TiC precipitates is intricately linked to diffusional changes of solutes resulting from the co-evolution of microstructural features within the experiments. The findings align with current theoretical perspectives on radiation-induced precipitate stability in complex alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A dynamic volumetric heat source model for laser additive manufacturing

Melt pool scale models of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) offer insights into the process-structure-property relationships in additive manufacturing (AM). These models often neglect physical phenomena such as vapor cavity formation and fluid mechanics to reduce computational demands. Instead, volumetric heat source models are used to represent the effects that these phenomena have on the predicted melt pool dimensions. Generally, the dimensions and effective absorption of the volumetric heat source are calibrated to reproduce melt pool dimensions observed in metallographic cross sections taken from single-track experiments on bare plate. However, the transient nature of LPBF often deviates the melt pool dimensions from the assumed steady-state conditions of single-track experiments, motivating the need for a volumetric heat source model that more generally considers the dynamic relationship between melt pool shape and laser-material interactions. Here, we introduce a two-parameter volumetric heat source model that integrates several existing models into a generalized mathematical expression, providing independent control over the radial heat distribution via the parameter k and the volumetric shape of the heat source via the parameter m. This parameterization enables the calibration of melt pool shape predictions through simultaneous adjustment of these parameters, while keeping the radial heat source dimensions consistent with the experimental spot size (D4σ) and constraining the heat source depth and absorption to physically derived expressions for cavities. Consequently, the proposed volumetric heat source model adapts to changes in the local melt pool conditions due to scanning strategy and part geometry by dynamically adjusting the heat source depth and absorption. We demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed model through comparisons with a collection of experiments from the Additive Manufacturing Benchmark (AMBench).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactive multiscale modeling to bridge atomic properties and electrochemical performance in Li-CO 2 battery design

Li-CO 2 batteries are promising energy storage systems due to their high theoretical energy density and CO 2 fixation capability, relying on reversible Li 2 CO 3 /C formation during discharge/charge cycles. Here, we present a multiscale modeling framework integrating Density Functional Theory (DFT), Ab-Initio Molecular Dynamics (AIMD), classical Molecular Dynamics (MD), and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) to investigate atomic and cell-level properties. The considered Li-CO 2 battery consists of a lithium metal anode, an ionic liquid electrolyte, and a carbon cloth cathode with Sb 0.67 Bi 1.33 Te 3 catalyst. DFT and AIMD determined the electrical conductivities of Sb 0.67 Bi 1.33 Te 3 and Li 2 CO 3 using the Kubo–Greenwood formalism and studied the CO 2 reduction mechanism on the cathode catalyst. MD simulations calculated the CO 2 diffusion coefficient, Li + transference number, ionic conductivity, and Li + solvation structure. The FEA model, parameterized with atomistic simulation data, reproduced the available experimental voltage–capacity profile at 1 mA/cm 2 and revealed spatio-temporal variations in Li 2 CO 3 /C deposition, porosity, and CO 2 concentration dependence on discharge rates in the cathode. Accordingly, Li 2 CO 3 can form large and thin film deposits, leading to dispersed and local porosity changes at 0.1 mA/cm 2 and 1 mA/cm 2 , respectively. The capacity decreases exponentially from 81,570 mAh/g at 0.1 mA/cm 2 to 6200 mAh/g at 1 mA/cm 2 , due to pore clogging from excessive discharge product deposition that limits CO 2 transport to the cathode interior. Therefore, the performance of Li-CO 2 batteries can be improved by enhancing CO 2 transport, regulating Li 2 CO 3 deposition, and optimizing cathode architecture.

Battery performance↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing the interactions between particulate matter and cloud properties over two populated cities in Texas using WRF-Chem fine-resolution modeling

Accurate modeling of aerosol-cloud interactions is essential for reliable weather and air quality simulations, given their significant impact on precipitation patterns, cloud dynamics, and aerosol distributions. This study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to examine the impact of enhanced meteorological simulations, achieved through advanced microphysics parameterization supported by data assimilation techniques, on air quality across Texas on August 19 and 20, 2022. We tested four distinct configurations: (1) the Morrison two-moment bulk microphysics scheme, (2) Morrison's with observation nudging, (3) the Spectral Bin Microphysics (SBM), and (4) SBM with observation nudging. While the SBM scheme is known for its detailed representation of aerosol-cloud interactions, our focus was on how improvements in meteorological accuracy translate to more precise air quality simulations. Our findings demonstrated a progressive improvement in simulation accuracy, starting with the Morrison's scheme and further enhanced by adopting the SBM scheme, complemented by incorporating observation nudging. Specifically, the combination of the SBM scheme and the nudging substantially enhanced the model's ability to capture convective precipitation events, as shown by better alignment with NEXRAD radar reflectivity, with R increasing from –0.21 to 0.82, IOA from 0.10 to 0.87, and NMB decreasing from 99% to 34% in Houston. The enhanced meteorology translated into more accurate PM 2.5 concentration simulations, particularly through the more accurate representation of aerosol washout during precipitation events. In Houston, the SBM scheme with nudging improved the model's PM 2.5 simulations significantly, with NMB decreasing from –20% to 5% and IOA improving from 0.43 to 0.61. In San Antonio, improvements were also notable, with NMB improved from –27% to –22%, R increased from 0.48 to 0.82, and IOA increased from 0.66 to 0.86. Furthermore, our results underscore the crucial role of accurate meteorological simulations in refining our understanding of aerosol behaviors in relation to precipitation patterns, directly enhancing the reliability and effectiveness of air quality modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Wind Resource Data from Different PBL Schemes in the WRF Model: A Case Study Over the Puerto Rico Region

This study examines the modeling uncertainty of wind resource data stemming from the use of various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-based wind simulations spanning 20 years at 3-km resolution using 11 different PBL schemes are used to objectively investigate the uncertainty in modeling wind speed for land-based wind (LBW) and offshore wind (OSW) locations in Puerto Rico. The uncertainty in the wind modeling for the 20-year dataset is quantified using the spread index (SI) and standard deviation (SD). For virtual LBW and OSW sites, the SI and SD values are analyzed as calculated across various spatial and temporal scales. Because the PBL's atmospheric stability conditions can be characterized into two dominant categories, the study focuses on analyzing the SI and SD for daytime (mainly unstable PBL conditions) and nighttime (mainly stable PBL conditions). For wind shear (10 m-200 m) at the OSW and LBW sites, WRF-based numerical experiments indicate the following SI (or SD) ranges: 39%-94% (0.74 m/s-1.44 m/s) during the daytime for OSW, 50%-75% (0.68 m/s-1.19 m/s) during the daytime for LBW, 37%-60% (0.73 m/s-1.12 m/s) during the nighttime for OSW, and 57%-143 % (0.65 m/s-1.43 m/s) during the nighttime for LBW. While a high SI is observed when modeling LBW during the nighttime, there are notable modeling uncertainties during the daytime on the leeward side of the orographic barriers for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal 4D Whole-cell Modeling of a Minimal Autotroph Reveals Central Carbon Metabolism Regulated Locally by Protein Megacomplexes via Post-translational Modifications under Light Disturbance

Photosynthetic microorganisms rely on multiple pathways in central carbon metabolism to adapt to fluctuating light and energy availability across diel cycles. Mechanistic insight into the regulatory dynamics of this adaptation requires integrating processes spanning disparate timescales, from rapid redox-dependent post-translational modifications (PTMs) to slower changes in protein expression and metabolic pathway usage. To address this complexity beyond genome-based inference and traditional modeling, we develop a whole-cell four-dimensional (3D + time) model of the marine cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus marinus MED4 that explicitly represents the spatial organization of enzymatic and molecular processes in central carbon metabolism under light perturbation. We employ a perturbation-based research design to experimentally generate time-series, multi-omics measurements that provide molecular descriptors and cryo-ET derived 3D segmented volumes as constraints for this dynamic 4D framework. The integration of experiments and modeling across defined light regimes enables quantitative validation of system-level responses and forecasting under distinct light disturbances. We test the hypothesis that light-dependent redox PTMs regulating the structural assembly of a protein megacomplex, the “dark complex,” modulate metabolic flux at a conserved regulatory node of the Calvin–Benson cycle (CBC) in cyanobacteria. Our model shows that subcellular spatial organization buffers rapid light-induced changes in thylakoid reaction rates, which are followed by redox-PTM-mediated sequestration or release of CBC enzymes in the dark complex, ultimately impacting carbon fixation dynamics within carboxysomes. Comparison with an equivalently parameterized well-mixed stochastic model demonstrates that post-translational regulation not only buffers transcriptional noise and diffusion-driven fluctuations but also stabilizes phenotypic outcomes, underscoring the importance of spatial heterogeneity in phenotypic robustness. This ability to probe adaptive, spatiotemporally resolved mechanisms in photosynthetic machinery and central carbon metabolism addresses a critical gap in genotype-to-phenotype inference and expands modeling and design capabilities for understudied or genetically intractable autotrophs such as P. marinus MED4.

Johnson, Connah G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved multifidelity Monte Carlo estimators based on normalizing flows and dimensionality reduction techniques

Here, we study the problem of multifidelity uncertainty propagation for computationally expensive models. In particular, we consider the general setting where the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models have a dissimilar parameterization both in terms of number of random inputs and their probability distributions, which can be either known in closed form or provided through samples. We derive novel multifidelity Monte Carlo estimators which rely on a shared subspace between the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models where the parameters follow the same probability distribution, i.e., a standard Gaussian. We build the shared space employing normalizing flows to map different probability distributions into a common one, together with linear and nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques, active subspaces and autoencoders, respectively, which capture the subspaces where the models vary the most. We then compose the existing low-fidelity model with these transformations and construct modified models with an increased correlation with the high-fidelity model, which therefore yield multifidelity estimators with reduced variance. A series of numerical experiments illustrate the properties and advantages of our approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of graph convolution neural network models of evolving processes

The application of neural network models to scientific machine learning tasks has proliferated in recent years. In particular, neural networks have proved to be adept at modeling processes with spatial–temporal complexity. Nevertheless, these highly parameterized models have garnered skepticism in their ability to produce outputs with quantified error bounds over the regimes of interest. Hence there is a need to find uncertainty quantification methods that are suitable for neural networks. In this work we present comparisons of the parametric uncertainty quantification of neural networks modeling complex spatial–temporal processes with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Stein variational gradient descent and its projected variant. Specifically we apply these methods to graph convolutional neural network models of evolving systems modeled with recurrent neural network and neural ordinary differential equations architectures. We show that Stein variational inference is a viable alternative to Monte Carlo methods with some clear advantages for complex neural network models. For our exemplars, Stein variational interference gave similar pushed forward uncertainty profiles through time compared to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, albeit with generally more generous variance. As a result, projected Stein variational gradient descent also produced similar uncertainty profiles to the non-projected counterpart, but large reductions in the active weight space were confounded by the stability of the neural network predictions and the convoluted likelihood landscape.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Separable physics-informed DeepONet: Breaking the curse of dimensionality in physics-informed machine learning

The deep operator network (DeepONet) has shown remarkable potential in solving partial differential equations (PDEs) by mapping between infinite-dimensional function spaces using labeled datasets. However, in scenarios lacking labeled data, the physics-informed DeepONet (PI-DeepONet) approach, which utilizes the residual loss of the governing PDE to optimize the network parameters, faces significant computational challenges, particularly due to the curse of dimensionality. This limitation has hindered its application to high-dimensional problems, making even standard 3D spatial with 1D temporal problems computationally prohibitive. Additionally, the computational requirement increases exponentially with the discretization density of the domain. Here, to address these challenges and enhance scalability for high-dimensional PDEs, we introduce the Separable physics-informed DeepONet (Sep-PI-DeepONet). This framework employs a factorization technique, utilizing sub-networks for individual one-dimensional coordinates, thereby reducing the number of forward passes and the size of the Jacobian matrix required for gradient computations. By incorporating forward-mode automatic differentiation (AD), we further optimize computational efficiency, achieving linear scaling of computational cost with discretization density and dimensionality, making our approach highly suitable for high-dimensional PDEs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Sep-PI-DeepONet through three benchmark PDE models: the viscous Burgers’ equation, Biot’s consolidation theory, and a parameterized heat equation. Our framework maintains accuracy comparable to the conventional PI-DeepONet while reducing training time by two orders of magnitude. Notably, for the heat equation solved as a 4D problem, the conventional PI-DeepONet was computationally infeasible (estimated 289.35 h), while the Sep-PI-DeepONet completed training in just 2.5 h. These results underscore the potential of Sep-PI-DeepONet in efficiently solving complex, high-dimensional PDEs, marking a significant advancement in physics-informed machine learning.

Neural operator↗
DOE OSTI2025

A resolution independent neural operator

The Deep operator network (DeepONet) is a powerful yet simple neural operator architecture that utilizes two deep neural networks to learn mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces. This architecture is highly flexible, allowing the evaluation of the solution field at any location within the desired domain. However, it imposes a strict constraint on the input space, requiring all input functions to be discretized at the same locations; this limits its practical applications. Here, in this work, we introduce a general framework for operator learning from input–output data with arbitrary number and locations of sensors. This begins by introducing a resolution-independent DeepONet (RI-DeepONet), enabling it to handle input functions that are arbitrarily, but sufficiently finely, discretized. To this end, we propose two dictionary learning algorithms to adaptively learn a set of appropriate continuous basis functions, parameterized as implicit neural representations (INRs), from correlated signals defined on arbitrary point cloud data. These basis functions are then used to project arbitrary input function data as a point cloud onto an embedding space (i.e., a vector space of finite dimensions) with dimensionality equal to the dictionary size, which can be directly used by DeepONet without any architectural changes. In particular, we utilize sinusoidal representation networks (SIRENs) as trainable INR basis functions. The introduced dictionary learning algorithms are then used in a similar way to learn an appropriate dictionary of basis functions for the output function data, which defines a new neural operator architecture referred to as the R esolution I ndependent N eural O perator (RINO). In the RINO, the operator learning task simplifies to learning a mapping from the coefficients of input basis functions to the coefficients of output basis functions. We demonstrate the robustness and applicability of RINO in handling arbitrarily (but sufficiently richly) sampled input and output functions during both training and inference through several numerical examples.

Deep operator network (DeepONet)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Higher-order LaSDI: Reduced order modeling with multiple time derivatives

Solving complex partial differential equations (PDEs) is essential across scientific disciplines but often requires numerical models that can be prohibitively expensive in time-sensitive applications. Reduced-order models (ROMs) address this challenge by exploiting low-dimensional structure to create fast approximations. The Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI) framework has demonstrated success in learning ROMs for parameterized PDE families, but remains limited to first-order systems. Here, in this paper, we propose Higher-Order LaSDI (HLaSDI), which extends the LaSDI framework to PDEs with arbitrary order of time derivatives. This generalization significantly expands the applicability of LaSDI-based methods to systems previously outside their scope, including hyperbolic PDEs. We demonstrate HLaSDI’s accuracy and efficiency on several linear and nonlinear benchmark problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cluster expansion by transfer learning for phase stability predictions

Recent progress towards universal machine-learned interatomic potentials holds considerable promise for materials discovery. Yet the accuracy of these potentials for predicting phase stability may still be limited. In contrast, cluster expansions provide accurate phase stability predictions but are computationally demanding to parameterize from first principles, especially for structures of low dimension or with a large number of components, such as interfaces or multimetal catalysts. We overcome this trade-off via transfer learning. Using Bayesian inference, we incorporate prior statistical knowledge from machine-learned and physics-based potentials, enabling us to sample the most informative configurations and to efficiently fit first-principles cluster expansions. Furthermore, this algorithm is tested on Pt:Ni, showing robust convergence of the mixing energies as a function of sample size with reduced statistical fluctuations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase-field modeling of radiation-induced composition redistribution: An application to additively manufactured austenitic Fe–Cr–Ni

Multicomponent alloys undergoing irradiation damage develop radiation-induced composition redistribution at point defect sinks such as grain boundaries (GBs) and dislocations. Such redistribution results in undesired changes to their mechanical behavior and corrosion resistance. Additively manufactured alloys proposed for future nuclear applications are expected to demonstrate a distinct response to irradiation owing to their unique microstructure with as-solidified dislocation density and chemical microsegregation. To capture the composition redistribution in such systems, we develop a mesoscale model with coupled evolution of atomic and point defect components in the presence of dislocation density, dislocation heterogeneity, and thermodynamic interactions at the GB. The model is parameterized for an FCC Fe–Cr–Ni alloy as a representative system for austenitic stainless steels, and simulations are performed in 1D and 2D as a function of irradiation temperature, dose, dislocation density, and grain size. Radiation-induced segregation (RIS) characterized by Cr depletion and Ni enrichment is predicted at both the GB and the dislocation cell wall, with RIS being lower in magnitude but wider at the cell wall. Strongly biased absorption of self-interstitials by dislocations is found to suppress Ni enrichment but slightly enhance Cr depletion under certain conditions. Thermodynamic segregation at the GB is predicted to be narrower and opposite in sign to RIS for both Cr and Ni. Importantly, non-monotonic segregation is found to occur when both thermodynamic and RIS mechanisms are considered, providing a novel physical interpretation of experimental observations. The model is expected to serve as a key tool in accelerated qualification of irradiated materials.

additively manufactured microstructure↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale modeling of restructuring in high burnup UO 2 fuel

Here, this work aims to simulate the restructuring behavior observed in different regions of high burnup fuel, providing a first-of-its-kind restructuring model for the dark zone and rim region of high-burnup UO 2 fuel. We employed a grand-potential-based phase-field model to concurrently evaluate subgrain formation and the growth of fission gas bubbles within the fuel. An energy-based subgrain formation criterion was introduced to simulate the restructuring process. The effects of different initial conditions and different modeling parameters were systematically studied to capture how each of these parameters influences the characteristics of the restructured fuel. Subgrain formation was observed to begin around existing fission gas bubbles and proceed toward triple junctions, grain boundaries, and grain interiors. Restructuring was demonstrated to be influenced by a combination of initial dislocation densities, burnup rate, subgrain formation rate, and temperature. Under a given subgrain formation rate, the rate of restructuring increases with rising fuel temperature. A restructuring bias was observed within the microstructure, due to the variation in defect accumulation when comparing different grains. Microstructures corresponding to the dark zone and rim region can be obtained by parameterizing the model with the appropriate defect production rate, as determined based on the burnup rate and temperature. Furthermore, bubble size and distribution do not significantly affect the rate of restructuring. The predicted microstructures are consistent with experimental observations of the restructured regions. Finally, we present a correlation demonstrating the evolution of the restructuring volume fraction as a function of local burnup.

UO2↗
DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven multiscale model for reactive wetting simulations

Here, we describe a data-driven, multiscale technique to model reactive wetting of a silver–aluminum alloy on a Kovar™ (Fe-Ni-Co alloy) surface. We employ molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the dependence of surface tension and wetting angle on the drop’s composition and temperature. A design of computational experiments is used to efficiently generate training data of surface tension and wetting angle from a limited number of molecular dynamics simulations. The simulation results are used to parameterize models of the material’s wetting properties and compute the uncertainty in the models due to limited data. The data-driven models are incorporated into an engineering-scale (continuum) model of a silver–aluminum sessile drop on a Kovar™ substrate. Model predictions of the wetting angle are compared with experiments of pure silver spreading on Kovar™ to quantify the model-form errors introduced by the limited training data versus the simplifications inherent in the molecular dynamics simulations. The paper presents innovations in the determination of “convergence” of noisy MD simulations before they are used to extract the wetting angle and surface tension, and the construction of their models which approximate physio-chemical processes that are left unresolved by the engineering-scale model. Together, these constitute a multiscale approach that integrates molecular-scale information into continuum scale models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models

Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving energy efficiency while reducing anthropogenic heat from buildings: how retrofits influence the building stock and urban microclimate in Los Angeles

Anthropogenic heat (AH) from buildings contributes to urban overheating, especially during heat waves, yet building retrofit studies usually evaluate energy savings without assessing impacts on AH. This study quantifies how common building retrofit measures affect both building energy use and AH emissions across the City of Los Angeles. Using a bottom-up urban building energy modeling framework coupled with high-resolution local weather from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Building Effect Parameterization (WRF-BEP), we evaluate eleven retrofit measures and two multi-measure retrofit packages. HVAC and LED lighting retrofits provide the largest city-wide annual site energy savings, while roof coating is most effective for reducing AH. A package optimized for energy savings reduces summer site energy use by about 32% (2.3 TWh), while a package incorporating AH-focused measures reduces the total AH by over 50% (137 PJ) with minimal difference in energy savings. The AH-aware package produces substantially greater urban cooling, reducing mean near-surface air temperature by up to 0.62 ℃ and peak temperature by up to 3.79 ℃. These results show that retrofit strategies selected only for energy savings may overlook major opportunities for urban heat mitigation. The study provides a framework for integrating AH into building retrofit planning and urban heat resilience policy.

Anthropogenic heat↗