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At least 253 records · Page 14

SPRUCE Phospholipid Fatty Acid (PLFA) Abundances, August 2021-June 2022

This data set provides the results for phospholipid fatty acid analysis (PLFA) of peat samples collected from ambient plots in the SPRUCE experiment site, with experimental plot samples still being processed. The samples used to generate this data set were collected on 2021-08-23 and 2022-06-21. This data set includes abundances for groups of lipids indicating total biomass, fungi, Gram-positive bacteria, Gram-negative bacteria, actinomycetes, and anaerobic bacteria. This data set contains one file in comma separate (*.csv) format. Samples: On each sampling date, cores extending to 200 cm were collected and subsampled at 10 cm intervals from 0 and 100 cm and 25 cm intervals below 100 cm depth in Plot 7 and 21. During the lipid extraction procedure, samples were pooled into the following depth increments in order to obtain sufficient material to achieve adequate lipid yield: 0-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-50, 50-100, and 100-150, and 150-200 cm.

actinomycetes↗

SPRUCE Anaerobic oxidation of methane mitigates net methane production and responds to long-term experimental warming in a northern bog: Supporting data

This data set contains measurements of anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM), net methane (CH4) production, carbon dioxide (CO2) production, and gross CH4 production measurements from the SPRUCE experiment (Hanson et al. 2017). CH4 is greenhouse gas with 45 times the sustained global warming potential of CO2 over 100 years, which may have significant implications on global climate change. The process of AOM plays a large role in the extent of CH4 emissions from wetland environments like those at the SPRUCE experiment site. This study conducted two on different dates. In experiment 1, net CH4 and CO2 production were measured with a gas chromatograph through the peat profile at in situ temperatures of the SPRUCE plots four times from May to October, 2016 (2016-05 to 2016-10). Two treatments were examined, a Porewater Treatment that was a 1:1 volumetric peat:porewater slurry and a No Porewater Treatment that was field-moist peat with no porewater added. Additionally, net CH4 production were measured at frequent intervals (from 4 hr to 9 d) in peat from selected SPRUCE plots from soil collected on October 16, 2016 (2016-10-16). Samples were collected from the SPRUCE plots, immediately made anaerobic, and transported to the University of Oregon for rate measurements within several days of collection. In experiment 2, AOM, net CH4 production, CO2 production, and gross CH4 production were measured through the peat profile at in situ field temperatures once from samples collected in July, 2021 (2021-07). The same two porewater treatments were examined. AOM was measured with a 13CH4 tracer method using a Picarro G2201-i analyzer for isotopic CO2/CH4 quantification with a small stable isotope module attached. This data set contains three data files in comma separate (*.csv) format. This data set is associated with the following publication: Barney, M, AM Hopple, LL Gregory, JK Keller, and SD Bridgham. 2024. Anaerobic oxidation of methane mitigates net methane production and responds to long-term experimental warming in a northern bog. Soil Biology and Biochemistry, 190, 109316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2024.109316.

SPRUCE Experiment, Marcell Experimental Forest, Me↗

The Transcriptional Response of Soil Bacteria to Long-Term Warming and Short-Term Seasonal Fluctuations in a Terrestrial Forest

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important carbon store, and this carbon is vulnerable to microbial degradation with climate warming. After 30 years of experimental warming, carbon stocks in a temperate mixed deciduous forest were observed to be reduced by 30% in the heated plots relative to the controls. In addition, soil respiration was seasonal, as was the warming treatment effect. We therefore hypothesized that long-term warming will have higher expressions of genes related to carbohydrate and lipid metabolism due to increased utilization of recalcitrant carbon pools compared to controls. Because of the seasonal effect of soil respiration and the warming treatment, we further hypothesized that these patterns will be seasonal. We used RNA sequencing to show how the microbial community responds to long-term warming (~30 years) in Harvard Forest, MA. Total RNA was extracted from mineral and organic soil types from two treatment plots (+5°C heated and ambient control), at two time points (June and October) and sequenced using Illumina NextSeq technology. Treatment had a larger effect size on KEGG annotated transcripts than on CAZymes, while soil types more strongly affected CAZymes than KEGG annotated transcripts, though effect sizes overall were small. Although, warming showed a small effect on overall CAZymes expression, several carbohydrate-associated enzymes showed increased expression in heated soils (~68% of all differentially expressed transcripts). Further, exploratory analysis using an unconstrained method showed increased abundances of enzymes related to polysaccharide and lipid metabolism and decomposition in heated soils. Compared to long-term warming, we detected a relatively small effect of seasonal variation on community gene expression. Together, these results indicate that the higher carbohydrate degrading potential of bacteria in heated plots can possibly accelerate a self-reinforcing carbon cycle-temperature feedback in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental Warming Changes Phenology and Shortens Growing Season of the Dominant Invasive Plant Bromus tectorum (Cheatgrass)

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) has successfully invaded and established throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum grows early in the season and this early growth allows B. tectorum to outcompete native species, which has led to dramatic shifts in ecosystem function and plant community composition after B. tectorum invades. If the phenology of native species is unable to track changing climate as effectively as B. tectorum’s phenology then climate change may facilitate further invasion. To better understand how B. tectorum phenology will respond to future climate, we tracked the timing of B. tectorum germination, flowering, and senescence over a decade in three in situ climate manipulation experiments with treatments that increased temperatures (2°C and 4°C above ambient), altered precipitation regimes, or applied a combination of each. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze treatment effects on the timing of germination, flowering, senescence, and on the length of the vegetative growing season (time from germination to flowering) in each experiment. Altered precipitation treatments were only applied in early years of the study and neither precipitation treatments nor the treatments’ legacies significantly affected B. tectorum phenology. The timing of germination did not significantly vary between any warming treatments and their respective ambient plots. However, plots that were warmed had advances in the timing of B. tectorum flowering and senescence, as well as shorter vegetative growing seasons. The phenological advances caused by warming increased with increasing degrees of experimental warming. The greatest differences between warmed and ambient plots were seen in the length of the vegetative growing season, which was shortened by approximately 12 and 7 days in the +4°C and +2°C warming levels, respectively. The effects of experimental warming were small compared to the effects of interannual climate variation, suggesting that interactive controls and the timing of multiple climatic factors are important in determining B. tectorum phenology. Taken together, these results help elucidate how B. tectorum phenology may respond to future climate, increasing our predictive capacity for estimating when to time B. tectorum control efforts and how to more effectively manage this exotic annual grass.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dry Season Transpiration and Soil Water Dynamics in the Central Amazon

With current observations and future projections of more intense and frequent droughts in the tropics, understanding the impact that extensive dry periods may have on tree and ecosystem-level transpiration and concurrent carbon uptake has become increasingly important. Here, we investigate paired soil and tree water extraction dynamics in an old-growth upland forest in central Amazonia during the 2018 dry season. Tree water use was assessed via radial patterns of sap flow in eight dominant canopy trees, each a different species with a range in diameter, height, and wood density. Paired multi-sensor soil moisture probes used to quantify volumetric water content dynamics and soil water extraction within the upper 100 cm were installed adjacent to six of those trees. To link depth-specific water extraction patterns to root distribution, fine root biomass was assessed through the soil profile to 235 cm. To scale tree water use to the plot level (stand transpiration), basal area was measured for all trees within a 5 m radius around each soil moisture probe. The sensitivity of tree transpiration to reduced precipitation varied by tree, with some increasing and some decreasing in water use during the dry period. Tree-level water use scaled with sapwood area, from 11 to 190 L per day. Stand level water use, based on multiple plots encompassing sap flow and adjacent trees, varied from ∼1.7 to 3.3 mm per day, increasing linearly with plot basal area. Soil water extraction was dependent on root biomass, which was dense at the surface (i.e., 45% in the upper 5 cm) and declined dramatically with depth. As the dry season progressed and the upper soil dried, soil water extraction shifted to deeper levels and model projections suggest that much of the water used during the month-long dry-down could be extracted from the upper 2–3 m. Results indicate variation in rates of soil water extraction across the research area and, temporally, through the soil profile. These results provide key information on whole-tree contributions to transpiration by canopy trees as water availability changes. In addition, information on simultaneous stand level dynamics of soil water extraction that can inform mechanistic models that project tropical forest response to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Passive Acoustic Monitoring Provides Insights into Avian Use of Energycane Cropping Systems in Southern Florida

Birds are important indicators of ecosystem health and provide a range of benefits to society. It is important, therefore, to understand the impacts of agricultural land use changes on bird populations. The cultivation of energycane (EC)—a sugarcane hybrid—for biofuel production represents one form of agricultural land use change in southern Florida. We used passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) to examine bird community use of experimental EC fields and other agricultural land uses at two study sites in southern Florida. We deployed 16 acoustic recorders in different study plots and used the automatic species identifier BirdNET to identify 40 focal bird species. We found seasonal differences in daily avian species diversity and richness between EC experimental plots and reference agricultural fields (corn fields, orchards, pastureland), and between time periods (pre-planting, post-planting). Daily avian species diversity and richness were lower in the EC experimental plots during Fall and Winter months when plants reached maximum height (>400 cm in some areas). Despite seasonal differences in daily measures of species diversity and richness, we found no differences in cumulative species richness, suggesting that there may be little overall (season-long) effects of EC production. These findings could provide insight to avian seasonal habitat preferences and underscore the potential limitations of PAM in areas experiencing dynamic vegetation changes. More research is needed to better understand if utilization of EC cropping systems results in positive or negative effects on avian populations (e.g., foraging habitat quality, predator–prey dynamics, nest success).

BirdNET↗

code for "Improving the QBO forcing by resolved waves with vertical grid refinement in E3SMv2"

This is all code that used in the journal article "Improving the QBO forcing by resolved waves with vertical grid refinement in E3SMv2", including: Running and post processing E3SM: Run E3SM: run_E3SM.2023.scidac.MMF.amip.py Regrid: regrid.E3SM.py post processing, diagnostics, archive: run_post.2023.scidac.MMF.py TEM calculation, including filter TEM, E3SM: calculate.TEM.v2.py calculate.TEM.monthly_mean.v1.py TEM, ERA5: ERA5_calculate_TEM_90.py merge TEM data: merge_TEM_E3SM_ERA5.py TEM, filter, E3SM: filter_TEM_E3SM.py TEM, filter, ERA5: filter_TEM_ERA5.py WK wave analysis code from (https://github.com/brianpm/wavenumber_frequency): wavenumber_frequency_functions.py calculate the wave spectra so easy to plot: wk_calculation.py Make figures some functions for plot: plot.py code for drawing paper plots: figures_for_paper.ipynb

Hannah, WalterM↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Thaw Depth and dGPS locations, Barrow, Alaska, 2017

Thaw depth measurements within and around warming chambers, and at paired ambient plots lmeasured in 2017 on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. Measurements were taken at the start and end of chamber deployment, and two intermediate times during the 2017 growing season. dGPS measurements of chamber and ambient plot locations are included. The data package includes thaw depth and gps data in csv and xlsx formats. The xlsx files include additional metadata. The GPS data is also included in kml format. These data were collected as part of a series of single-season warming experiments on tundra vegetation on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. A different plant species was targeted each year, over four experimental years from 2017–2021. Each year, five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots were deployed from around the time of snowmelt in mid-June through to mid-September. Average seasonal warming of 3–4°C was achieved using Zero Power Warming (ZPW) chambers (Lewin et al, 2017).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Thaw Depth and dGPS locations, Barrow, Alaska, 2018

Thaw depth measurements within and around warming chambers, and at ambient plots. Measurements were taken at the start and end of chamber deployment, and two intermediate times during the 2018 growth season. dGPS measurements of chamber and ambient plot locations. This dataset contains one kmz, two xlsx, and three csv files where the xlsx files have been preserved as csvs for preservation. These data were collected as part of a series of single-season warming experiments on tundra vegetation on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. A different plant species was targeted each year, over four experimental years from 2017–2021. Each year, five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots were deployed from around the time of snowmelt in mid-June through to mid-September. Average seasonal warming of 3-4°C was achieved using Zero Power Warming (ZPW) chambers (Lewin et al, 2017).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Thaw depth and dGPS locations, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2021

Thaw depth measurements within and around warming chambers, and in ambient plots located on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. Measurements were taken at the start and end of chamber deployment, and two intermediate times during the 2021 growth season. dGPS measurements of chamber and ambient plot locations are also included. The files included in this data package are in .csv format, and include 2 data files and 3 metadata files. This data was recorded as part of the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) vegetation warming experiment. Other datasets under the Vegetation Warming Experiment include data for environmental conditions, leaf physiology, leaf traits, and landscape and plot phenocam images. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Thaw depth and dGPS locations, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2019

Thaw depth measurements within and around warming chambers, and in ambient plots located on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. Measurements were taken at the start and end of chamber deployment, and two intermediate times during the 2019 growth season. dGPS measurements of chamber and ambient plot locations are also included. The files included in this data package are in .csv format, and include 3 data files and 3 metadata files. This data was recorded as part of the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) vegetation warming experiment. See related data files for environmental conditions, leaf physiology, leaf traits, and landscape and plot phenocam images. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Environmental Conditions, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2017

Environmental conditions measured in five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots located on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska from 22 June - 17 September, 2017. These data were recorded in support of the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) vegetation warming experiment, a series of single season vegetation warming treatments conducted over four years from 2017-2021 (no experiment in 2020). Air temperature and humidity, infrared surface (canopy) temperature, soil temperature, soil moisture, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), PRI (photochemical reflectance index), solar radiation and chamber venting were recorded in each chamber at 1 minute intervals. Ambient air temperature, humidity, solar radiation and uplooking PRI and NDVI were measured at a centrally located meteorology station. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was calculated and included in the final processed data products. Data has undergone full QA/QC and is presented as 1 minute data, and hourly and daily aggregate data products. This data package includes unprocessed raw data (*.dat files), processed data (*.csv) and metadata including a full description of sensors, calculations and processing (*.csv, *.pdf). See related NGEE-Arctic Vegetation Warming Experiment data packages for leaf-level gas exchange and other leaf trait data; chamber, plot and landscape phenocamera images; thaw depth, and GPS locations of chambers and ambient plots. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Environmental conditions, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2021

Environmental conditions measured in five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots located on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska from 19 June - 17 September, 2021. These data were recorded in support of the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) vegetation warming experiment, a series of single season vegetation warming treatments conducted over four years from 2017-2021 (no experiment in 2020). Air temperature and humidity, infrared surface (canopy) temperature, soil temperature, soil moisture, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), PRI (photochemical reflectance index), solar radiation and chamber venting were recorded in each chamber at 1 minute intervals. Ambient air temperature, humidity, solar radiation and uplooking PRI and NDVI were measured at a centrally located meteorology station. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was calculated and included in the final processed data products. Data has undergone full QA/QC and is presented as 1 minute data, and hourly and daily aggregate data products. This data package includes unprocessed raw data (*.dat files), processed data (*.csv) and metadata including a full description of sensors, calculations and processing (*.csv, *.pdf). See related NGEE-Arctic "Vegetation Warming Experiment" data packages for leaf-level gas exchange and other leaf trait data; chamber, plot and landscape phenocamera images; thaw depth, and GPS locations of chambers and ambient plots. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Leaf mass area, leaf carbon and nitrogen content, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2021-2022

Leaf mass per area (LMA), and leaf carbon and nitrogen content of an Arctic graminoid, Carex aquatilis, from within warming chambers and paired control plots. The plants were sampled in July 2021 and July 2022 as part of the Zero Power Warming (ZPW) vegetation warming experiment conducted on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Samples include leaves used for gas exchange measurements and bulk harvests from each warming chamber and paired ambient plot. The files included in this data package are in .csv format, and include 3 data files and 4 metadata files. See related datasets for plant physiology, phenology, thaw depth and environmental conditions of the plots and warming chambers. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗

Quantifying Properties for a Mechanistic, Predictive Understanding of Aqueous Impact on Aging of Medium and Low Voltage AC and DC Cabling in Nuclear Power Plants

To address the gap in knowledge in understanding degradation in relevant service conditions, this project aimed to develop a mechanistic, predictive model of medium and low voltage cable failure based on the primary environmental degradation parameters of aqueous immersion time, temperature, and the oxidation extent. To do so, we took a two-fold approach toward evaluating degradation as related to the aqueous condition. First, we evaluated the chemical, mechanical, and electrical properties of polymers that comprise the cabling insulation under varied aqueous conditions at different temperatures. Secondly, we evaluated the performance of insulation materials under similar accelerated aging conditions in addition to the dielectric breakdown of the cabling under submersion conditions. Thermal oxidation and immersion of LDPE thin films were done using a Parr vessel and the extent of oxidation was monitored using the carbonyl index from ATR-FTIR spectrum, a ratio quantifying the carbonyl functionality produced on the LDPE film surface. Increasing the temperature, oxidation time, and oxygen pressure increased the water-vapor permeability and the carbonyl content. Thermogravimetric analysis of the films confirmed that there is indeed an initial weight loss of the smaller molecular weight molecules and volatiles. At higher temperatures, there is a secondary mass loss. Up to 70°C, the mass loss curves were similar until 80°C, when the aged films decreased at a much greater rate with respect to increasing temperature. This was seen in the 10, 50, 90% weight loss temperatures. The mechanical properties of sheet PP and HDPE as well as injection molded LDPE, HDPE, HDPP dog bones were plotted with respect to the time spent in the Parr vessel during thermal oxidation. For the sheet PP and HDPE, the UTS and the modulus of elasticity decreased while the elongation increased. The injection-molded LDPE, HDPE, and HDPP dog bones experienced a similar trend where the changes in the properties were within experimental uncertainty. This analysis of LDPE in dry and immersive oxygen-rich environments is an important baseline for future experiments looking at other degradation mechanisms. A predictive aging model for low-density polyethylene insulative cable housings was developed. This model revealed a combination of physical and chemical processes which lead to an increase in permeability and a decrease in strength of the insulator. In creating this predictive model, a gap of knowledge in the literature was revealed in two areas: understanding how the crystallinity of a polymer changes with time and visualizing the predicted pores formed through the insulator which leads to failure. Developing and using an adapted ATR-FTIR method, crystallinity was monitored and compared to bulk crystallinity found via DSC. Inhomogeneity in crystallinity changes were observed but the FTIR method but was found to be less reliable. Pore visualization was found utilizing electrical impedance spectroscopy saturated aged polyethylene films with synthesized citrate-capped gold nanoparticles, and chloroauric acid precursor. results indicate a decreasing impedance of the polyethylene films caused by the transport of ions through the film. SEM imaging was then performed for elemental analysis of the films and counter electrodes for the presence of ions. Chloride and gold ions were detected; however, no nanoparticles were found. This gives an estimated pore size of at least 0.3 nm through the aged film. Cyclic submergence of polyethylene and polypropylene in aqueous solutions of copper sulfate and Harrison’s solution were examined. It was discovered that aging in these mixed conditions and at 90°C did cause a small, yet significant increase to tensile strength for both unaged polyethylene and polypropylene. The PE and PP in cycled and submerged conditions did not have tensile strengths significantly different from dry-aged after 16 weeks. For both solutions, it was determined that capacitance increases with both water tree depth and cable temperature and is relatively independent of changing water tree AR. As for resistance, there is no apparent change between depth percentages of 10 and 80 for both solutions. This is because the water tree has not yet entered the conductor and thus there is no shorting current flowing through the tree yet. Between 80 and 100% water tree depth, it is observed that for both solutions there is a rapid decrease in resistance because the tree is now impacting the conductor shield and allowing shorting current to flow through it. The relationship between resistance and temperature was found to be inversed. As temperature increases, resistance decreases for both water tree solutions with distilled water having the most apparent difference across the range of temperatures simulated. With regards to water tree AR, resistance was found to be relatively independent at depth percentages of 10, 50, and 70, but there was some relationship at 100% depth for both solutions. At this depth, as water tree AR increased, resistance was found to also increase. Through the examination of voltage and electric field distribution plots, it was confirmed for EPR cables that increasing water tree depth leads to increasing distortion. The increase in shorting current at 100% depth for aqueous copper sulfate compared to distilled water was also visualized. Lastly, the relationship between shorting current and temperature for narrow water trees was visualized and validated using the distribution plots. This study has led to a better understanding of the effect of cable temperature, water tree solution, and geometry of the tree region on cable degradation. Furthermore, this study has documented simulation results of water tree degradation in EPR MV cables, which had been previously lacking in information. Future work in this area will add frequency into the mix and examine what effect it has on the rate of cable degradation as a result of water treeing. To compliment the work being carried by UMD on different polymer chemistries, harvested medium voltage (MV) cables were selected for accelerated aging study at ORNL. These medium voltage cables are representative of the vintages and materials that are currently in use at existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). These cables were immersed in water at 90°C and energized for a period of two years at elevated voltage. Partial discharge was measured during this period of time to track potential degradation. Unfortunately, due to the absence of failure, the extent of integration between the UMD techniques and the harvested MV insulation was limited. However, based on the findings and from the UMD research in the previous sections on polyethylene and polypropylene, follow-on characterization for harvested MV cable insulation should focus on sample preparation to take advantage of the UMD techniques to better understand mechanistic degradation in MV cable insulations. This would include: 1.) Utilization of solutions and impedance measurement insulation to track permeability in harvested and accelerated aging insulation samples, 2.) Adaptation of gold nanoparticle synthesis for electrical impedance spectroscopy with supporting SEM characterization to study pore formation in harvested and accelerated aged insulation samples, & 3.) ATR-FTIR crystallinity with multiple temperature dependent harvested MV cable insulation under different air and submerged accelerated aging. In addition, low voltage dielectric spectroscopy and high voltage dissipation factor, tan δ, could be implemented as a condition monitoring tool for harvested MV cable insulation in submerged environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

WEC-Sim Modeling of Laminar Scientific's Patented Seesaw Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

Laminar Scientific's patented seesaw wave energy converter was modeled in WEC-Sim to predict performance. The device operates by utilizing ocean surface waves to rotate a truss in pitch about a pivot. The pivot is located at the top of two pylons, which are embedded in the seafloor. The seesaw has a float on either end, and the buoyancy forces from each float cause the system to rise or fall with passing waves. Device performance relies upon seesaw length and ocean wavelength creating an antiphase effect. The seesaw truss has an adjustable length intended to achieve this effect. The operation method enforces a narrow band of wavelengths which induce the largest rotational motion from the device. The hydrodynamic analysis of the device was performed using Capytaine, and the results confirmed that the device operates best in a narrow frequency band. Four float-to-float spacing cases and three pylon radii were examined. The hydrodynamic results indicate a match between the model and the physical expectations for the device, and that varying the pylon radii by 0.1-m increments for three instances creates minimal changes in hydrodynamic properties. Power matrices for three float spacing cases of the device were simulated with Joint North Sea Wave Project spectra waves and optimal power take-off damping in WEC-Sim. The maximum average power production for the 15-m spacing case was 14.1 kW with a 5.0-s peak wave period and 4-m significant wave heights. Plots of capture-width ratios indicated that the device performance was linear and confirmed that the device is optimal in a narrow frequency band. The maximum percentage of the available wave power produced by the 15-m device was approximately 16%. Simulations of the device in regular waves were used to produce plots of average power compared to a ratio of float spacing to wavelength. These plots indicate that the power production is maximized at a ratio of 0.5, and further confirm that the device has a narrow frequency response. The device was simulated at an example field location, where the device produced an annual average power rating of 1.6 kW given an average omnidirectional wave climate of 10.3 kW m-1 and an optimal, linearized power take-off model. While the maximum predicted device performance is reliant upon a narrow band of wave frequencies, the conducted analysis provides an opportunity to improve device design prior to prototyping and testing. Modifying the design to respond to a broader frequency range would improve device performance.

numerical modeling↗

Recurrence analysis of friction based dry-couplant ultrasonic Lamb waves in plate-like structures

Here, in this study, the effect of friction on the generation of dry-coupled Lamb waves is experimentally investigated. Recurrence analysis is performed to analyze the complex behavior of friction based dry-coupled Lamb waves. In particular, the effect of the normal force, which is necessary for a stronger dry-coupled Lamb wave generation and the friction, on the transmission of mechanical energy and determinism characteristics of Lamb waves are investigated. The results verify that larger friction coefficient and friction force are crucial for generation and propagation of strong Lamb waves supporting the fact that the main mechanism to transfer mechanical energy using dry-couplant is friction. The sensitivity of Lamb waves to the friction coefficient, highlights the importance of designing specific pads with respect to condition of the surface. Besides, the results show that the normal force and friction coefficient can change the determinism characteristics behavior of multimode Lamb waves. Furthermore, it is shown that the determinism value is sensitive to the friction coefficient and normal force. A similar trend is observed in the determinism values and friction coefficient. In general, a smaller friction coefficient indicates smaller determinism value. Additionally, it is shown that a normal load can change the behavior of a system, as observed from recurrence plots, owing to changes in the Lamb waves trajectories in the phase-space domain. In addition, it is shown that recurrence plots enable the detection of mode transitions in multimode Lamb waves. Recurrence analysis is a complementary tool to frequency domain methods for accurate analysis of multimode Lamb waves behavior.

42 ENGINEERING↗