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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning and meta-learning of stochastic advection–diffusion–reaction systems from sparse measurements

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) were recently proposed in [18] as an alternative way to solve partial differential equations (PDEs). A neural network (NN) represents the solution, while a PDE-induced NN is coupled to the solution NN, and all differential operators are treated using automatic differentiation. Here, we first employ the standard PINN and a stochastic version, sPINN, to solve forward and inverse problems governed by a non-linear advection–diffusion–reaction (ADR) equation, assuming we have some sparse measurements of the concentration field at random or pre-selected locations. Subsequently, we attempt to optimise the hyper-parameters of sPINN by using the Bayesian optimisation method (meta-learning) and compare the results with the empirically selected hyper-parameters of sPINN. In particular, for the first part in solving the inverse deterministic ADR, we assume that we only have a few high-fidelity measurements, whereas the rest of the data is of lower fidelity. Hence, the PINN is trained using a composite multi-fidelity network, first introduced in [12], that learns the correlations between the multi-fidelity data and predicts the unknown values of diffusivity, transport velocity and two reaction constants as well as the concentration field. For the stochastic ADR, we employ a Karhunen–Loève (KL) expansion to represent the stochastic diffusivity, and arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) to represent the stochastic solution. Correspondingly, we design multiple NNs to represent the mean of the solution and learn each aPC mode separately, whereas we employ a separate NN to represent the mean of diffusivity and another NN to learn all modes of the KL expansion. For the inverse problem, in addition to stochastic diffusivity and concentration fields, we also aim to obtain the (unknown) deterministic values of transport velocity and reaction constants. The available data correspond to 7spatial points for the diffusivity and 20 space–time points for the solution, both sampled 2000 times. We obtain good accuracy for the deterministic parameters of the order of 1–2% and excellent accuracy for the mean and variance of the stochastic fields, better than three digits of accuracy. In the second part, we consider the previous stochastic inverse problem, and we use Bayesian optimisation to find five hyper-parameters of sPINN, namely the width, depth and learning rate of two NNs for learning the modes. Here, we obtain much deeper and wider optimal NNs compared to the manual tuning, leading to even better accuracy, i.e., errors less than 1% for the deterministic values, and about an order of magnitude less for the stochastic fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Decision-Relevant Factor-Fixing Framework: Application to Uncertainty Analysis of a High-Dimensional Water Quality Model

Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced-order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF-UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension-reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re-parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non-identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as sample size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially-distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nonlinear dimension reduction for surrogate modeling using gradient information

We introduce a method for the nonlinear dimension reduction of a high-dimensional function $u:{\mathbb{R}}^d\rightarrow{\mathbb{R}}$, $d\gg 1$. Our objective is to identify a nonlinear feature map $g:{\mathbb{R}}^d\rightarrow{\mathbb{R}}^m$, with a prescribed intermediate dimension $m\ll d$, so that $u$ can be well approximated by $f\circ g$ for some profile function $f:{\mathbb{R}}^m\rightarrow{\mathbb{R}}$. We propose to build the feature map by aligning the Jacobian $\nabla g$ with the gradient $\nabla u$, and we theoretically analyze the properties of the resulting $g$. Once $g$ is built, we construct $f$ by solving a gradient-enhanced least squares problem. Our practical algorithm uses a sample $\{{\textbf{x}}^{(i)},u({\textbf{x}}^{(i)}),\nabla u({\textbf{x}}^{(i)})\}_{i=1}^N$ and builds both $g$ and $f$ on adaptive downward-closed polynomial spaces, using cross validation to avoid overfitting. We numerically evaluate the performance of our algorithm across different benchmarks, and explore the impact of the intermediate dimension $m$. We show that building a nonlinear feature map $g$ can permit more accurate approximation of $u$ than a linear $g$, for the same input data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Trade-Off in Distributed Secondary Control for Autonomous AC Microgrids

In this paper, we propose to quantify the trade-off between voltage regulation and reactive power sharing in autonomous AC microgrids with distributed secondary control. It is known that voltage regulation and reactive power sharing in droop-controlled autonomous AC microgrids are two conflicting control objectives that present a natural trade-off between voltage regulation towards the voltage magnitude reference and reactive power sharing accuracy. This trade-off is commonly shown qualitatively without sufficient quantification. In this work, to quantify the trade-off between the two objectives, we focus on distributed secondary control and utilize regression and polynomial surface fitting to identify the requisite parameter area to satisfy the predefined error bands for voltage magnitude regulation and reactive power sharing. Extensive case studies are presented to validate the proposed method.

autonomous AC microgrids↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observability Analysis of a Power System Stochastic Dynamic Model Using a Derivative-Free Approach

Serving as a prerequisite to power system dynamic state estimation, the observability analysis of a power system dynamic model has recently attracted the attention of many power engineers. However, because this model is typically nonlinear and large-scale, the analysis of its observability is a challenge to the traditional derivative-based methods. Indeed, the linear-approximation-based approach may provide unreliable results while the nonlinear-technique-based approach inevitably faces extremely complicated derivations. Furthermore, because power systems are intrinsically stochastic, the traditional deterministic approaches may lead to inaccurate observability analyses. In this work, facing these challenges, we propose a novel polynomial-chaos-based derivative-free observability analysis approach that not only is free of any linear approximations, but also accounts for the stochasticity of the dynamic model while bringing a low implementation complexity. Furthermore, this approach enables us to quantify the degree of observability of a stochastic model, what conventional deterministic methods cannot do. The excellent performance of the proposed method has been demonstrated by performing extensive simulations using a synchronous generator model with IEEE-DC1A exciter and the TGOV1 turbine governor.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Probabilistic Power Flow via Hybrid Multi-Surrogate Method

The risks associated with rare events threatening the security of power system operation are of paramount importance to power system planners and operators. To analyze the risks caused by high-impact, low-frequency rare events, an immensely large number of samples are typically required for the Monte-Carlo (MC) method on the high-fidelity power system model to achieve a sufficient accuracy, thereby rendering this approach computationally prohibitive. To handle this problem efficiently, it is desirable to construct a surrogate model for the power system response. However, the straightforward MC sampling of the low-fidelity surrogate can lead to biased results in the low-probability tail regions that are vital to risk assessment. Moreover, a single surrogate is unable to handle the topology uncertainties caused by random branch outages. To overcome these issues, we propose a hybrid multi-surrogate (HMS) method based on the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) with low-probability tail events reevaluated by the high-fidelity model through a probabilistic analysis. This method improves the computational efficiency of the MC method for rare-event risk assessment by leveraging multi-fidelity models while retaining the desired accuracy. Simulations conducted in three test systems verify the excellent performances of the HMS method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis of Irradiated Fueled Experiments using the MOOSE Framework [Slides]

Modeling and simulation (M&S) methods are able to predict uncertainties in experimental parameters (e.g., power and fission density) during irradiation. A shortfall exists in predicting how sensitive some of the parameters will behave during the experimental process. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification (SUQ) is critical in support of qualification and licensing reactor fuels. The application of a method to quantify the uncertainty in these experiments is critical to the prediction of their performance. In this work, we propose the use of a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method to quantify the sensitive parameters in these simulations and, in an extension, their experimental surrogates. We propose to perform M&S using PCE uncertainty quantification on a previously irradiated fueled experiment in order to provide a validation case for Griffin and expand its use as a verification and validation (V&V) tool for experiments with a neutronics component. Griffin is an advanced, deterministic neutronics analysis code built using the MOOSE (multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment) framework which can provide state-of-the-art neutronic analysis on M&S of experiments. We will use the stochastic tools module (STM) in MOOSE to provide PCE uncertainty quantification on the proposed experimental setup. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) does not yet have an in-house developed code with V&V approval for experiments performed on-site; this work would provide a necessary addition of support for experiments performed at INL. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has explicitly requested uncertainties in calculated values such as fuel power and burnup, and the development of this capability would benefit the relationship between INL and the NRC.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

New Determinations of the UV Luminosity Functions from z ~ 9 to 2 Show a Remarkable Consistency with Halo Growth and a Constant Star Formation Efficiency

Here we provide the most comprehensive determinations of the rest-frame UV luminosity function (LF) available to date with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) at z ~ 2–9. Essentially all of the noncluster extragalactic legacy fields are utilized, including the Hubble Ultra Deep Field, the Hubble Frontier Fields parallel fields, and all five CANDELS fields, for a total survey area of 1136 arcmin{sup 2}. Our determinations include galaxies at z ~ 2–3 leveraging the deep HDUV, UVUDF, and ERS WFC3/UVIS observations available over an ~150 arcmin{sup 2} area in the GOODS-North and GOODS-South regions. All together, our collective samples include >24,000 sources, >2.3× larger than previous selections with HST. We identify 5766, 6332, 7240, 3449, 1066, 601, 246, and 33 sources at z ~ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, respectively. Combining our results with an earlier z ~ 10 LF determination by Oesch et al., we quantify the evolution of the UV LF. Our results indicate that there is (1) a smooth flattening of the faint-end slope α from α ~ -2.4 at z ~ 10 to α ~ -1.5 at z ~ 2, (2) minimal evolution in the characteristic luminosity M* at z ≥ 2.5, and (3) a monotonic increase in the normalization log{sub 10}ϕ* from z ~ 10 to 2, which can be well described by a simple second-order polynomial, consistent with an “accelerated” evolution scenario. We find that each of these trends (from z ~ 10 to 2.5 at least) can be readily explained on the basis of the evolution of the halo mass function and a simple constant star formation efficiency model.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Current–Induced Ion Concentration Polarization at a Perfect Ion–Exchange Patch in an Infinite Insulating Wall

This research examines theoretically the ion concentration polarization, ion fluxes, and electrostatic fields near an ion exchange patch in the wall of an electrified fluidic channel. These phenomena are important in related microfluidic ion-preconcentration systems. Under an electric field, counterions enter the ion-exchange patch at one side and leave at the other, with salt depletion occurring near the entrance and accumulation near the exit. Furthermore, the high patch conductivity and the concentration profiles lead to local electric field perturbations that may facilitate preconcentration. This study includes analytical expressions of ion concentrations and electrochemical potentials at small to moderate electric fields, as well as numerical simulations. Additionally, a simple matrix of polynomial coefficients (obtained via fitting of numerical data) enables analytical calculation of the 2-dimensional concentration profiles at all electric fields within the range investigated in the numerical simulations. This is possible because a single dimensionless parameter controls this problem.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Semiclassical Trajectory Studies of Reactive and Nonreactive Scattering of OH( 2 Σ + ) by H 2 Based on an Improved Full-Dimensional Ab Initio Diabatic Potential Energy Matrix

Here we present a new full-dimensional diabatic potential energy matrix (DPEM) for electronically nonadiabatic collisions of OH(A 2 Σ + ) with H 2 , and we calculate the probabilities of electronically adiabatic inelastic collisions, nonreactive quenching, and reactive quenching to form H 2 O+H. The DPEM was fitted using a many-body expansion with permutationally invariant polynomials in bond-order functions to represent the many-body part. The dynamics calculations were carried out with the fewest-switches with time uncertainty and stochastic decoherence (FSTU/SD) semiclassical trajectory method. We present results both for head-on collisions (impact parameter b equal to zero) and for a full range of impact parameters. The results are compared to experiment and to earlier FSTU/SD and quantum dynamics calculations with a previously published DPEM. The various theoretical results all agree that nonreactive quenching dominates reactive quenching, but there are quantitative differences between the two DPEMs and between the b=0 results and the all-b results, especially for the probability of reactive quenching.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of bank vegetation impacts on the flood flow field in the American River, California, using large‐eddy simulations

Bank vegetation plays a key role in both hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of natural rivers; however, these effects are often unaccounted for in the computational flow dynamics of natural waterways. Recent studies using the large‐eddy simulation (LES), however, have attempted to gain insights into the impacts of bank vegetation on the mean flow field of the natural rivers using a vegetation model, which applies a sink term to the momentum equations of motion. This approach accounts for the effects of the vegetation and provides a practical approach to account for the complex patches of bank vegetation in large‐scale rivers. To implement the vegetation model, a drag coefficient reflecting the overall resistance of vegetal structures to the flow is needed, but due to the lack of calibrated data and range of size, density and type of vegetation, this parameter can be a significant source of uncertainty in the model results. Here, in this study, we use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to investigate the hydrodynamics and bed shear results when a bank vegetation is incorporated in an LES model. To this end, we used the polynomial chaos expansion and Monte Carlo sampling techniques to determine the uncertainties associated with the drag coefficient in the vegetation model and from uncertainties in the bed roughness and inflow discharge. The UQ analysis provided spatially varying confidence levels for the spanwise and vertical distribution of velocity magnitude and for the bed shear stress distributions. In addition, Sobol indices were computed to indicate the relative influence that each parameter had on the overall uncertainty. In general, it was found that uncertainty in flow discharge was the dominant source of uncertainty; however, the drag coefficient in the vegetation model and the bed roughness parameter also made significant contribution to the uncertainty near the banks and bed, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic constrained Bayesian inversion for transpiration cooling

Abstract To enable safe operations in applications such as rocket combustion chambers, the materials require cooling to avoid material damage. Here, transpiration cooling is a promising cooling technique. Numerous studies investigate possibilities to simulate and evaluate the complex cooling mechanism. One naturally arising question is the amount of coolant required to ensure a safe operation. To study this, we introduce an approach that determines the posterior probability distribution of the Reynolds number using an inverse problem and constraining the maximum temperature of the system under parameter uncertainties. Mathematically, this chance inequality constraint is dealt with by a generalized polynomial chaos expansion of the system. The posterior distribution will be evaluated by different Markov chain Monte Carlo based methods. A novel method for the constrained case is proposed and tested among others on two‐dimensional transpiration cooling models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty analysis of correlated parameters in automated reaction mechanism generation

Abstract Uncertainty analysis is a useful tool for inspecting and improving detailed kinetic mechanisms because it can identify the greatest sources of model output error. Owing to the very nonlinear relationship between kinetic and thermodynamic parameters and computed concentrations, model predictions can be extremely sensitive to uncertainties in some parameters while uncertainties in other parameters can be irrelevant. Error propagation becomes even more convoluted in automatically generated kinetic models, where input uncertainties are correlated through kinetic rate rules and thermodynamic group values. Local and global uncertainty analyses were implemented and used to analyze error propagation in Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG), an open‐source software for generating kinetic models. A framework for automatically assigning parameter uncertainties to estimated thermodynamics and kinetics was created, enabling tracking of correlated uncertainties. Local first‐order uncertainty propagation was implemented using sensitivities computed natively within RMG. Global uncertainty analysis was implemented using adaptive Smolyak pseudospectral approximations as implemented in the MIT Uncertainty Quantification Library to efficiently compute and construct polynomial chaos expansions to approximate the dependence of outputs on a subset of uncertain inputs. Cantera was used as a backend for simulating the reactor system in the global analysis. Analyses were performed for a phenyldodecane pyrolysis model. Local and global methods demonstrated similar trends; however, many uncertainties were significantly overestimated by the local analysis. Both local and global analyses show that correlated uncertainties based on kinetic rate rules and thermochemical groups drastically reduce a model's degrees of freedom and have a large impact on the determination of the most influential input parameters. These results highlight the necessity of incorporating uncertainty analysis in the mechanism generation workflow.

Gao, Connie W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

High‐order cubature rules for tetrahedra

Summary In this paper, we construct new high‐order numerical integration schemes for tetrahedra, with positive weights and integration points that are in the interior of the domain. The construction of cubature rules is a challenging problem, which requires the solution of strongly nonlinear algebraic (moment) equations with side conditions given by affine inequality constraints. We present a robust algorithm based on a sequence of three modified Newton procedures to solve the constrained minimization problem. In the literature, numerical integration rules for the tetrahedron are available up to order p =15. We obtain integration rules for the tetrahedron from p =2 to p =20, which are computed using multiprecision arithmetic. For p ≤15, our approach provides integration rules that have the same or fewer number of integration points than existing rules; for p =16 to p =20, our rules are new. Numerical tests are presented that verify the polynomial‐precision of the cubature rules. Convergence studies are performed for the integration of exponential, rational, weakly singular and trigonometric test functions over tetrahedra with flat and curved faces. In all tests, improvements in accuracy is realized as p is increased, though in some cases nonmonotonic convergence is observed.

Jaśkowiec, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic partition of unity networks for high–dimensional regression problems

We explore the probabilistic partition of unity network (PPOU-Net) model in the context of high-dimensional regression problems and propose a general framework focusing on adaptive dimensionality reduction. With the proposed framework, the target function is approximated by a mixture of experts model on a low-dimensional manifold, where each cluster is associated with a fixed-degree polynomial. We present a training strategy that leverages the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. During the training, we alternate between (i) applying gradient descent to update the DNN coefficients; and (ii) using closed-form formulae derived from the EM algorithm to update the mixture of experts model parameters. Under the probabilistic formulation, step (ii) admits the form of embarrassingly paralleliazable weighted least-squares solves. The PPOU-Nets consistently outperform the baseline fully-connected neural networks of comparable sizes in numerical experiments of various data dimensions. Here, we also explore the proposed model in applications of quantum computing, where the PPOU-Nets act as surrogate models for cost landscapes associated with variational quantum circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of sparse recovery for Legendre expansions using envelope bound

We provide novel sufficient conditions for the uniform recovery of sparse Legendre expansions using ℓ 1 minimization, where the sampling points are drawn according to orthogonalization (uniform) measure. So far, conditions of the form m ≳ Θ 2 s x log factors have been relied on to determine the minimum number of samples m that guarantees successful reconstruction of s-sparse vectors when the measurement matrix is associated to an orthonormal system. However, in case of sparse Legendre expansions, the uniform bound Θ of Legendre systems is so high that these conditions are unable to provide meaningful guarantees. Here, in this paper, we present an analysis which employs the envelop bound of all Legendre polynomials instead, and prove a new recovery guarantee for s-sparse Legendre expansions, m ≳ Θs 2 x log factors, which is independent of Θ. Arguably, this is the first recovery condition established for orthonormal systems without assuming the uniform boundedness of the sampling matrix. The key ingredient of our analysis is an extension of chaining arguments, recently developed in Bourgain and Chkifa et al., to handle the envelope bound. Furthermore, our recovery condition is proved via restricted eigenvalue property, a less demanding replacement of restricted isometry property which is perfectly suited to the considered scenario. Along the way, we derive simple criteria to detect good sample sets. Our numerical tests show that sets of uniformly sampled points that meet these criteria will perform better recovery on average.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗