SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Population modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling COVID-19 Impacts on Prison Population

The goal of this project was to develop a unique, high-level, concept model that will (1) help examine the consequences COVID-19 has had on prison population and flow dynamics in Illinois and (2) explore (to the extent possible) how that will unfold in the short- and mid-term future. Argonne has unique expertise in dynamic systems modeling and highly specialized simulation capabilities, which will be helpful in developing such a model. The ultimate objective of this CRADA is to develop with the Illinois Public Sentencing Policy Advisory Council (SPAC) the capability to identify and understand factors and interactions associated with prison population and flow dynamics in Illinois. This understanding will then potentially lead to improvements in the allocation of various resources and services. This approach would also be useful to other states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The effect of non-linear mutual friction on pulsar glitch sizes and rise times

ABSTRACT Observations of pulsar glitches have the potential to provide constraints on the dynamics of the high density interior of neutron stars. However, to do so, realistic glitch models must be constructed and compared to the data. We take a step towards this goal by testing non-linear models for the mutual friction force, which is responsible for the exchange of angular momentum between the neutron superfluid and the observable normal component in a glitch. In particular, we consider a non-linear dependence of the drag force on the relative velocity between superfluid vortices and the normal component, in which the contributions of both kelvin and phonon excitations are included. This non-linear model produces qualitatively new features, and is able to reproduce the observed bimodal distribution of glitch sizes in the pulsar population. The model also suggests that the differences in size distributions in individual pulsars may be due to the glitches being triggered in regions with different pinning strengths, as stronger pinning leads to higher vortex velocities and a qualitatively different mutual friction coupling with respect to the weak pinning case. Glitches in pulsars that appear to glitch quasi-periodically with similar sizes may thus be due to the same mechanisms as smaller events in pulsars that have no preferred glitch size, but simply originate in stronger pinning regions, possibly in the core of the star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fictitious phase separation in Li layered oxides driven by electro-autocatalysis

Layered oxides widely used as lithium-ion battery electrodes are designed to be cycled under conditions that avoid phase transitions. Although the desired single-phase composition ranges are well established near equilibrium, operando diffraction studies on many-particle porous electrodes have suggested phase separation during delithiation. Notably, the separation is not always observed, and never during lithiation. These anomalies have been attributed to irreversible processes during the first delithiation or reversible concentration-dependent diffusion. However, these explanations are not consistent with all experimental observations such as rate and path dependencies and particle-by-particle lithium concentration changes. Here, we show that the apparent phase separation is a dynamical artefact occurring in a many-particle system driven by autocatalytic electrochemical reactions, that is, an interfacial exchange current that increases with the extent of delithiation. We experimentally validate this population-dynamics model using the single-phase material L ix (Ni 1/3 Mn 1/3 Co 1/3 )O 2 (0.5 < x < 1) and demonstrate generality with other transition-metal compositions. Operando diffraction and nanoscale oxidation-state mapping unambiguously prove that this fictitious phase separation is a repeatable non-equilibrium effect. We quantitatively confirm the theory with multiple-datastream-driven model extraction. More generally, our study experimentally demonstrates the control of ensemble stability by electro-autocatalysis, highlighting the importance of population dynamics in battery electrodes (even non-phase-separating ones).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1983

Modelling of the 10-micrometer natural laser emission from the mesospheres of Mars and Venus

The NLTE radiative transfer problem is solved to obtain the 00 deg 1 vibrational state population. This model successfully reproduces the existing center-to-limb observations, although higher spatial resolution observations are needed for a definitive test. The model also predicts total fluxes which are close to the observed values. The strength of the emission is predicted to be closely related to the instantaneous near-IR solar heating rate.

Deming, D.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Modeling of the 10-micron natural laser emission from the mesospheres of Mars and Venus

Deming, D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Direct Estimation of Parameters in ODE Models Using WENDy: Weak-Form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics

Abstract We introduce the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method for estimating model parameters for non-linear systems of ODEs. Without relying on any numerical differential equation solvers, WENDy computes accurate estimates and is robust to large (biologically relevant) levels of measurement noise. For low dimensional systems with modest amounts of data, WENDy is competitive with conventional forward solver-based nonlinear least squares methods in terms of speed and accuracy. For both higher dimensional systems and stiff systems, WENDy is typically both faster (often by orders of magnitude) and more accurate than forward solver-based approaches. The core mathematical idea involves an efficient conversion of the strong form representation of a model to its weak form, and then solving a regression problem to perform parameter inference. The core statistical idea rests on the Errors-In-Variables framework, which necessitates the use of the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Further improvements are obtained by using orthonormal test functions, created from a set of $$C^{\infty }$$ C ∞ bump functions of varying support sizes.We demonstrate the high robustness and computational efficiency by applying WENDy to estimate parameters in some common models from population biology, neuroscience, and biochemistry, including logistic growth, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Hindmarsh-Rose, and a Protein Transduction Benchmark model. Software and code for reproducing the examples is available at https://github.com/MathBioCU/WENDy .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2019

Development of a Model for the Small-Particle Orbital Debris Population Based on the STS Impact Record

In preparation for the release of the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) version 3.1, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) revisited how orbiting debris populations of characteristic sizes smaller than 1 cm were modeled. The primary contributor to the population of sub-centimeter debris particles is the surface deterioration or erosion of spacecraft materials exposed to the outer-space environment. Because small particulates are not directly trackable by remote sensing, the primary means of detection is via historical counts of small impact features on flown radiator and window surfaces of the U.S. Space Transportation System (STS, also known as the Space Shuttle) from 1995-2011. Historic NASA studies of high-velocity impact tests have related impact-feature size to particle mass and velocity for certain STS surfaces, so that a corresponding particle size may be inferred from each small-impact feature observed. Micro-debris populations are then estimated by modeling the path and orientation of an STS mission through a simulated debris environment, and the densities of this simulated environment are rescaled to approximate the number of observed STS impact features. Monte-Carlo methods are further employed to gauge the estimation uncertainty of the rescaled environment. A description of the chosen methodologies for estimating and adjusting the micro-debris population model, and the results, are presented.

Seago, J..↗

NASA NTRS1974

Main sequence models for massive zero-metal stars

Zero-age main-sequence models for stars of 20, 10, 5, and 2 solar masses with no heavy elements are constructed for three different possible primordial helium abundances: Y=0.00, Y=0.23, and Y=0.30. The latter two values of Y bracket the range of primordial helium abundances cited by Wagoner. With the exceptions of the two 20 solar mass models that contain helium, these models are found to be self-consistent in the sense that the formation of carbon through the triple-alpha process during premain sequence contraction is not sufficient to bring the CN cycle into competition with the proton-proton chain on the ZAMS. The zero-metal models of the present study have higher surface and central temperatures, higher central densities, smaller radii, and smaller convective cores than do the population I models with the same masses.

Cary, N.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Galaxy Populations in Groups and Clusters: Evidence for a Characteristic Stellar Mass Scale at M * ~ 10 9.5 M ⊙

We use the DR9 of the DESI legacy imaging survey and SDSS galaxy groups to measure the conditional luminosity function (CLF) for groups with halo mass Mh ≥ 10 12 M ⊙ and redshift 0.01 ≤ z ≤ 0.08, down to a limiting r-band magnitude of M r = –10 to –12. For given halo masses we measure the CLF for the total populations and for the red and blue populations classified using the (g – z) color. We find a clear faint-end upturn in the CLF of red satellites, with a slope α ≈ –1.8, which is almost independent of halo mass. This faint-end upturn is not seen for the blue and total populations. Our stellar population synthesis modeling shows that (g – z) provides a clean red/blue division and that red group galaxies defined by (g – z) are all dominated by old stellar populations. The fraction of old galaxies as a function of galaxy luminosity shows a minimum at M r ~ –18, corresponding to M * ~ 10 9.5 M ⊙ . This scale is independent of halo mass and is comparable to the characteristic luminosity at which galaxies show a dichotomy in surface brightness and size, suggesting that the dichotomy in the old fraction and in galaxy structure may have a common origin. The rising of the old fraction at the faint end for Milky Way (MW)–sized halos is in good agreement with the quenched fraction measured for the MW/M31 system and from the ELVES survey. We discuss the implications of our results for the formation and evolution of low-mass galaxies and for the stellar mass functions of low-mass galaxies to be observed at high redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

How Bright in Gravitational Waves are Millisecond Pulsars for the Galactic Center GeV Gamma-Ray Excess? A Systematic Study

The existence of dark matter (DM) is supported by various macroscopic observations, but its microscopic nature remains elusive. The Galactic Center GeV gamma-ray excess (GCE) has been a leading candidate signal for particle dark matter annihilation. However, an unresolved population of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) in the bulge provides the alternative explanation for the excess. Identifying these MSPs in electromagnetic bands is difficult due to source confusion, pulse broadening, and extinction. Gravitational waves (GWs) provide a complementary probe: a steadily rotating, non-axisymmetric MSP emits a nearly monochromatic GW signal in the sensitive band of ground-based detectors, with amplitude set by its ellipticity. In this work, we systematically investigate the GW emission from the MSP population proposed to explain the GCE and its detectability with current and future detectors. We consider three major scenarios for the origin of ellipticity and model the population properties of these MSPs. We also consider both isolated MSPs and MSPs in binary systems, as well as Doppler effects in the detection. We find that while the signal is below the reach of current interferometers, next-generation detectors such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE) can detect a fraction of those MSPs, offering a novel test of the MSP interpretation of the GCE. Future directed searches toward the Galactic Center with continued improvements in sensitivities will either uncover this long-sought MSP population or place stringent limits on their ellipticities and abundance, with important implications for both the astrophysical and dark-matter interpretations of the GCE.

Lei, Ming-Yu [Purple Mountain Observ.; USTC, Hefei↗

DOE OSTI2024

County Level Annual Population Projections for SSP3 and SSP5

This dataset consist of annual (2020-2100) county-level population projections for the United States (U.S.) for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5. The original decadal state-level data is used as an input to the gridded population data model to downscale the state-level projections for each SSP to a 1 km grid. The 1 km data is then aggregated to the county-level using the 2020 TIGER/Line county shapefiles from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data files are shared as .csv files with the following structure: Rows = Data for individual counties which are identified using their Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code. The FIPS code is stored in the first column. Columns = Each year from 2020-2100 is an individual column. For easier reference, the state name associated with each row is stored in the last column. Values in each cell are the downscaled estimated population for that county-year combination. Values are fractional due to the weighting scheme used in the downscaling. The paper and model source code cited in the "Related Works" section describes the initial source of the population projections.

FIPS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Synthetic properties of starburst galaxies

We present the results of an extensive grid of evolutionary synthesis models for populations of massive stars. The parameter space has been chosen to correspond to conditions typically found in objects like giant H II regions, H II galaxies, blue compact dwarf galaxies, nuclear starbursts, and infrared luminous starburst galaxies. The models are based on the most up-to-date input physics for the theory of stellar atmospheres, stellar winds, and stellar evolution. A population of massive stars is not only important in terms of its output of radiation but also via its deposition of mechanical energy. The output of radiative and mechanical luminosity is compared at various starburst epochs. In a supernova dominated instantaneous starburst, the mechanical luminosity can be as large as almost 10% of the total radiative luminosity. This occurs when most massive O stars have disappeared, and the synthetic spectrum in the optical and near-ultraviolet is dominated by B and A stars. During this epoch, the output of ionizing radiation below 912 A becomes very small, as indicated by a very large Lyman discontinuity and a very small ratio of ionizing over mechanical luminosity. We discuss the relevance of these results for the interpretation of starburst galaxies, active galactic nuclei, and the energetics of the interstellar medium.

Leitherer, Claus↗

DOE OSTI2026

BEAM CORE: A Flexible Ecosystem for Freight, Demographics, and Vehicle Analysis

The Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility Comprehensive Regional Evaluator (BEAM CORE) is an open-source, modular ecosystem of highly refined, agent-based modeling tools developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Laboratory of the Rockies. Organizations such as metropolitan planning organizations, agencies, and companies can use BEAM CORE to analyze freight movement and optimize logistics solutions, assess the impacts of emerging freight technologies or e-commerce trends, model dynamic population growth and evolution, and understand the drivers and impacts of electric vehicle adoption across households in a given region. Users can choose from a flexible suite of modeling modules according to their needs and priorities. The modules integrate with travel demand models to support enhanced analysis of diverse scenarios involving freight movement, vehicle technologies, and other key factors relevant to regional planning.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven causal model discovery and personalized prediction in Alzheimer's disease

Abstract With the explosive growth of biomarker data in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) clinical trials, numerous mathematical models have been developed to characterize disease-relevant biomarker trajectories over time. While some of these models are purely empiric, others are causal, built upon various hypotheses of AD pathophysiology, a complex and incompletely understood area of research. One of the most challenging problems in computational causal modeling is using a purely data-driven approach to derive the model’s parameters and the mathematical model itself, without any prior hypothesis bias. In this paper, we develop an innovative data-driven modeling approach to build and parameterize a causal model to characterize the trajectories of AD biomarkers. This approach integrates causal model learning, population parameterization, parameter sensitivity analysis, and personalized prediction. By applying this integrated approach to a large multicenter database of AD biomarkers, the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, several causal models for different AD stages are revealed. In addition, personalized models for each subject are calibrated and provide accurate predictions of future cognitive status.

Zheng, Haoyang (ORCID:0000000168358242)↗

NASA NTRS1989

Intelligent Network Management and Functional Cerebellum Synthesis

Transdisciplinary modeling of the cerebellum across histology, physiology, and network engineering provides preliminary results at three organization levels: input/output links to central nervous system networks; links between the six neuron populations in the cerebellum; and computation among the neurons of the populations. Older models probably underestimated the importance and role of climbing fiber input which seems to supply write as well as read signals, not just to Purkinje but also to basket and stellate neurons. The well-known mossy fiber-granule cell-Golgi cell system should also respond to inputs originating from climbing fibers. Corticonuclear microcomplexing might be aided by stellate and basket computation and associate processing. Technological and scientific implications of the proposed cerebellum model are discussed.

Loebner, Egon E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

NASA NTRS1991

A non-local thermodynamic equilibrium, line-blanketed synthetic spectrum of Iota Herculis - C, Al, and Si lines

A non-LTE line-blanketed model stellar atmosphere is used to compute a model of I Herculis (B3 IV) with a Teff of 17,500 K and a log g of 3.75, following the conclusions of Peters and Polidan (1985). Detailed profiles of a number of lines of C, Al, and Si in the 1200-2000-A region are computed, including the resonance lines of C II, Al II, and Al III. These profiles are compared to observations obtained from the coaddition of eight IUE SWP images, using a technique developed by Leckrone and Adelman (1989). Comparison of carbon lines with a model that is underabundant in carbon by a factor of 2 relative to the sun indicates that the C abundance of Iota Her is at most one-half solar. Non-LTE effects are examined by comparing an LTE model possessing identical atmospheric parameters with the non-LTE model. Substantial differences in the populations of the model atomic states are found, but differences in the temperature structure of the two models often mask the non-LTE effects in the synthetic spectra.

Grigsby, James A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Building and experimenting with an agent-based model to study the population-level impact of CommunityRx, a clinic-based community resource referral intervention

CommunityRx (CRx), an information technology intervention, provides patients with a personalized list of healthful community resources (HealtheRx). In repeated clinical studies, nearly half of those who received clinical “doses” of the HealtheRx shared their information with others (“social doses”). Clinical trial design cannot fully capture the impact of information diffusion, which can act as a force multiplier for the intervention. Furthermore, experimentation is needed to understand how intervention delivery can optimize social spread under varying circumstances. To study information diffusion from CRx under varying conditions, we built an agent-based model (ABM). This study describes the model building process and illustrates how an ABM provides insight about information diffusion through in silico experimentation. To build the ABM, we constructed a synthetic population (“agents”) using publicly-available data sources. Using clinical trial data, we developed empirically-informed processes simulating agent activities, resource knowledge evolution and information sharing. Using RepastHPC and chiSIM software, we replicated the intervention in silico, simulated information diffusion processes, and generated emergent information diffusion networks. The CRx ABM was calibrated using empirical data to replicate the CRx intervention in silico. We used the ABM to quantify information spread via social versus clinical dosing then conducted information diffusion experiments, comparing the social dosing effect of the intervention when delivered by physicians, nurses or clinical clerks. The synthetic population (N = 802,191) exhibited diverse behavioral characteristics, including activity and knowledge evolution patterns. In silico delivery of the intervention was replicated with high fidelity. Large-scale information diffusion networks emerged among agents exchanging resource information. Varying the propensity for information exchange resulted in networks with different topological characteristics. Community resource information spread via social dosing was nearly 4 fold that from clinical dosing alone and did not vary by delivery mode. This study, using CRx as an example, demonstrates the process of building and experimenting with an ABM to study information diffusion from, and the population-level impact of, a clinical information-based intervention. While the focus of the CRx ABM is to recreate the CRx intervention in silico, the general process of model building, and computational experimentation presented is generalizable to other large-scale ABMs of information diffusion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗