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NASA NTRS2008

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a significant source of man-made orbital debris. The propensity of SRMs to generate particles of 100 m and larger has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Radar observation, rather than in-situ gathered evidence, is currently the only measurable source for the NASA/ODPO model of the on-orbit slag population. This simulated model includes the time evolution of the resultant orbital populations using a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tail-off. However, due to the small amount of observational evidence, there can be no direct comparison to check the validity of this model. Rather than using the assumed population developed from purely historical and physical assumptions, a regressional approach was used which utilized the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. The estimated trajectories from the historical model of slag sources, and the corresponding plausible detections by the Haystack radar, were identified. Comparisons with observational data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the historical data obtained. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment.

Horstman, Matthew F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The evolution of a primordial binary population in a globular cluster

A simple model is presented for the evolution of a primordial binary population in a globular cluster. Monte Carlo simulations are given for an initial population of 50,000 binaries against a fixed background population of 500,000 single stars in a tidally truncated cluster model. Individual histories of all binaries are followed through mass segregation, scattering recoil, escape from the cluster, or coalescence. It is found that most binaries are destroyed by binary-binary interactions, with the rest escaping in the point-mass approximation. In a more realistic model, the majority of the rest merge. At any instant, most of the remaining binaries are drifting in toward the center before their first strong encounter. A typical binary spends most of its active life in or near the cluster core. The few binaries which receive a recoil sufficient to place them in the halo past the half-mass radius remain there long enough to make a significant contribution to the radial binary distribution.

Hut, Piet↗

NASA NTRS1994

Interpretation of the COBE FIRAS CMBR spectrum

The cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) spectrum measured by the Far-Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer (FIRAS) instrument on NASA's Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) is indistinguishable from a blackbody, implying stringent limits on energy release in the early universe later than the time t = 1 yr after the big bang. We compare the FIRAS data to previous precise measurements of the cosmic microwave background spectrum and find a reasonable agreement. We discuss the implications of the absolute value of y is less than 2.5 x 10(exp -5) and the absolute value of mu is less than 3.3 x 10(exp -4) 95% confidence limits found by Mather et al. (1994) on many processes occurring after t = 1 yr, such as explosive structure formation, reionization, and dissipation of small-scale density perturbations. We place limits on models with dust plus Population III stars, or evolving populations of IR galaxies, by directly comparing the Mather et al. spectrum to the model predictions.

Wright, E. L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Bulge Growth and Quenching Since Z=2.5 in Candels/3D-HST

Exploiting the deep high-resolution imaging of all 5 CANDELS fields, and accurate redshift informationprovided by 3D-HST, we investigate the relation between structure and stellar populations fora mass-selected sample of 6764 galaxies above 1010 M, spanning the redshift range 0.5 z 2.5.For the first time, we fit 2-dimensional models comprising a single Sersic fit and two-component (i.e.,bulge + disk) decompositions not only to the H-band light distributions, but also to the stellar massmaps reconstructed from resolved stellar population modeling. We confirm that the increased bulgeprominence among quiescent galaxies, as reported previously based on rest-optical observations, remainsin place when considering the distributions of stellar mass. Moreover, we observe an increaseof the typical Sersic index and bulge-to-total ratio (with median BT reaching 40-50) among starforminggalaxies above 1011 M. Given that quenching for these most massive systems is likely tobe imminent, our findings suggest that significant bulge growth precedes a departure from the starformingmain sequence. We demonstrate that the bulge mass (and ideally knowledge of the bulge andtotal mass) is a more reliable predictor of the star-forming versus quiescent state of a galaxy thanthe total stellar mass. The same trends are predicted by the state-of-the-art semi-analytic model bySomerville et al. In the latter, bulges and black holes grow hand in hand through merging andordisk instabilities, and AGN-feedback shuts off star formation. Further observations will be requiredto pin down star formation quenching mechanisms, but our results imply they must be internal to thegalaxies and closely associated with bulge growth.

Quenching↗

NASA NTRS2006

NAS Demand Predictions, Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Compared with Other Forecasts

The current work incorporates the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) to predict the future demand for airline travel. TSAM is a multi-mode, national model that predicts the demand for all long distance travel at a county level based upon population and demographics. The model conducts a mode choice analysis to compute the demand for commercial airline travel based upon the traveler s purpose of the trip, value of time, cost and time of the trip,. The county demand for airline travel is then aggregated (or distributed) to the airport level, and the enplanement demand at commercial airports is modeled. With the growth in flight demand, and utilizing current airline flight schedules, the Fratar algorithm is used to develop future flight schedules in the NAS. The projected flights can then be flown through air transportation simulators to quantify the ability of the NAS to meet future demand. A major strength of the TSAM analysis is that scenario planning can be conducted to quantify capacity requirements at individual airports, based upon different future scenarios. Different demographic scenarios can be analyzed to model the demand sensitivity to them. Also, it is fairly well know, but not well modeled at the airport level, that the demand for travel is highly dependent on the cost of travel, or the fare yield of the airline industry. The FAA projects the fare yield (in constant year dollars) to keep decreasing into the future. The magnitude and/or direction of these projections can be suspect in light of the general lack of airline profits and the large rises in airline fuel cost. Also, changes in travel time and convenience have an influence on the demand for air travel, especially for business travel. Future planners cannot easily conduct sensitivity studies of future demand with the FAA TAF data, nor with the Boeing or Airbus projections. In TSAM many factors can be parameterized and various demand sensitivities can be predicted for future travel. These resulting demand scenarios can be incorporated into future flight schedules, therefore providing a quantifiable demand for flights in the NAS for a range of futures. In addition, new future airline business scenarios are investigated that illustrate when direct flights can replace connecting flights and larger aircraft can be substituted, only when justified by demand.

Viken, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS2006

Utilizing Traveler Demand Modeling to Predict Future Commercial Flight Schedules in the NAS

Viken, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS1983

Evolutionary effects of helium diffusion in population II stars

Evolutionary calculations continuing until well past turnoff are presented for models of low-mass Population II stars which take into account the effects of the diffusion of helium relative to hydrogen. Evolutionary tracks, cluster isochrones and hydrogen distributions were obtained for stellar masses in the range 0.75 to 1.01 solar masses, both in the presence and absence of diffusion. It is found that for a star of a given mass, diffusion speeds up the evolutionary process on the main sequence, although after turnoff evolution is slowed with respect to the case without diffusion. As the stars ascend the red giant branch, their outer regions are remixed so that evidence of helium diffusion is erased, and the evolutionary tracks of the models with and without diffusion converge. Thus, if the age of a globular cluster is determined from the absolute magnitude at turnoff or from fitting isochrones, diffusion results in a 25% reduction in the derived age at a turnoff magnitude of 4.23, and a 14% reduction at a turnoff magnitude of 3.45.

Stringfellow, G. S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Internal Structural Design of the Common Research Model Wing Box for Aeroelastic Tailoring

This work explores the use of alternative internal structural designs within a full-scale wing box structure for aeroelastic tailoring, with a focus on curvilinear spars, ribs, and stringers. The baseline wing model is a fully-populated, cantilevered wing box structure of the Common Research Model (CRM). Metrics of interest include the wing weight, the onset of dynamic flutter, and the static aeroelastic stresses. Twelve parametric studies alter the number of internal structural members along with their location, orientation, and curvature. Additional evaluation metrics are considered to identify design trends that lead to lighter-weight, aeroelastically stable wing designs. The best designs of the individual studies are compared and discussed, with a focus on weight reduction and flutter resistance. The largest weight reductions were obtained by removing the inner spar, and performance was maintained by shifting stringers forward and/or using curvilinear ribs: 5.6% weight reduction, a 13.9% improvement in flutter speed, but a 3.0% increase in stress levels. Flutter resistance was also maintained using straight-rotated ribs although the design had a 4.2% lower flutter speed than the curved ribs of similar weight and stress levels were higher. For some configurations, the differences between curved and straight ribs were smaller, which provides motivation for future optimization-based studies to fully exploit the trade-offs.

Jutte, Christine V.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Combustion-related pollutants of polydisperse single-composition aerosols and advection fog formation

The most noticeable effect of air pollution on the properties of the atmosphere is the reduction in visibility, with and without the occurrence of condensation, which frequently accompanies polluted air. The present study concerns the formation of advection fog associated with aerosols, due to combustion-related pollutants, with a polydisperse population distribution and a single composition model. The results show that an aerosol population with high particle concentration-shifted distribution provides a more favorable condition for the formation of dense fog than an aerosol population with a low particle concentration-shifted distribution if the value of the mass concentration of the aerosols is kept constant.

Hung, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Galaxy formation through hierarchical clustering

Analytic methods for studying the formation of galaxies by gas condensation within massive dark halos are presented. The present scheme applies to cosmogonies where structure grows through hierarchical clustering of a mixture of gas and dissipationless dark matter. The simplest models consistent with the current understanding of N-body work on dissipationless clustering, and that of numerical and analytic work on gas evolution and cooling are adopted. Standard models for the evolution of the stellar population are also employed, and new models for the way star formation heats and enriches the surrounding gas are constructed. Detailed results are presented for a cold dark matter universe with Omega = 1 and H(0) = 50 km/s/Mpc, but the present methods are applicable to other models. The present luminosity functions contain significantly more faint galaxies than are observed.

White, Simon D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Orbital debris: Technical issues and future directions

An international conference on orbital debris sponsored jointly by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, NASA, and the Department of Defense, was held in Baltimore, Maryland, 16-19 Apr. 1990. Thirty-three papers were presented. The papers were grouped into the areas of measurements, modeling, and implications of orbital debris for space flight. New radar and optical measurements of orbital debris were presented that showed the existence of a large population of small debris. Modeling of potential future environments showed that runaway growth of the debris population from random collisions was a real possibility. New techniques for shielding against orbital debris and methods for removal of satellites from orbit were discussed.

Potter, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 μm to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraft

Krisko, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

Newman, W. I.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Assessment of a remote sensing-based model for predicting malaria transmission risk in villages of Chiapas, Mexico

A blind test of two remote sensing-based models for predicting adult populations of Anopheles albimanus in villages, an indicator of malaria transmission risk, was conducted in southern Chiapas, Mexico. One model was developed using a discriminant analysis approach, while the other was based on regression analysis. The models were developed in 1992 for an area around Tapachula, Chiapas, using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite data and geographic information system functions. Using two remotely sensed landscape elements, the discriminant model was able to successfully distinguish between villages with high and low An. albimanus abundance with an overall accuracy of 90%. To test the predictive capability of the models, multitemporal TM data were used to generate a landscape map of the Huixtla area, northwest of Tapachula, where the models were used to predict risk for 40 villages. The resulting predictions were not disclosed until the end of the test. Independently, An. albimanus abundance data were collected in the 40 randomly selected villages for which the predictions had been made. These data were subsequently used to assess the models' accuracies. The discriminant model accurately predicted 79% of the high-abundance villages and 50% of the low-abundance villages, for an overall accuracy of 70%. The regression model correctly identified seven of the 10 villages with the highest mosquito abundance. This test demonstrated that remote sensing-based models generated for one area can be used successfully in another, comparable area.

Insect Vectors/growth & development↗

NASA NTRS1989

Kinematic modeling of the Galaxy. I - The Yale Bright Star Catalogue

A code has been developed to investigate the kinematic properties of stellar populations of the Galaxy by modeling the distributions of proper motion and line-of-sight velocity. The coordinate frames of reference are discussed in detail and the general matrix transformations valid beyond the solar neighborhood are given. As a first application, the kinematic properties of the magnitude-selected sample of 3993 stars in the Bright Star Catalogue with V less than 6.0 and (B-V) greater than 0 are selected. The observed kinematic distributions are compared with a conventional model that has an exponential disk with scale heights, components of velocity dispersion ellipsoid, and asymmetric drift taken from the literature and defined as functions of spectral type. The comparisons suggest that a significant fraction of the Bright Star Catalogue belongs to a relatively young population that is not properly represented in the model.

Ratnatunga, Kavan U.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The structure of the interstellar medium

We have compared theoretical H I models to a large area H I channel map centered at 1 = 205 deg, b = 0 deg. One set of models were calculated in which uncorrelated clouds of H I populate space. Of the cloud models considered, which include 'Spitzer'-type clouds and the McKee-Ostriker formulation, none were able to reproduce the data successfully. In another class of models, holes and holes with shells permeate an otherwise continuous H I medium. Although not entirely successful, these models contain characteristics that are similar to the data. In order to reproduce the amplitude of the H I variations on angular scales of over 1 deg, the volume occupied by ionized gas must be less than 30 percent, in sharp conflict with the models that suggest that the volume of the ISM is dominated by hot gas.

Bregman, Joel N.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Post-workshop models of Jupiter's radiation belts

Models for the charged particle populations of Jupiter's trapped radiation belts were derived at the Jupiter Radiation Belt Workshop on the basis of several assumptions which represented a consensus of opinion. It was possible to improve the models on the basis of work performed after the workshop concluded. These improvements affect the models in two ways. The effects of special relativity on the particle energy and flux dependences in the magnetosphere were included in a derivation based on L-shell diffusion with conservation of the magnetic moment. Quantitative conclusions are available for the limit which ion cyclotron instability places on the proton population. A set of models which incorporates these developments in a way consistent with the original workshop assumptions and conclusions is described.

Divine, N.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Constraining the Statistics of Population III Binaries

We perform a cosmological simulation in order to model the growth and evolution of Population III (Pop III) stellar systems in a range of host minihalo environments. A Pop III multiple system forms in each of the ten minihaloes, and the overall mass function is top-heavy compared to the currently observed initial mass function in the Milky Way. Using a sink particle to represent each growing protostar, we examine the binary characteristics of the multiple systems, resolving orbits on scales as small as 20 AU. We find a binary fraction of approx. 36, with semi-major axes as large as 3000 AU. The distribution of orbital periods is slightly peaked at approx. < 900 yr, while the distribution of mass ratios is relatively flat. Of all sink particles formed within the ten minihaloes, approx. 50 are lost to mergers with larger sinks, and 50 of the remaining sinks are ejected from their star-forming disks. The large binary fraction may have important implications for Pop III evolution and nucleosynthesis, as well as the final fate of the first stars.

Statistics↗