Evaluating the reliability of machine-learning-based predictions used in nuclear power plant instrumentation and control systems
Not Available
Chen, Edward (ORCID:0000000180088097)↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Predictive power”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Analytical predictions of selenide RTG power degradation
A mathematical model for the performance and degradation analysis of an RTG using the newly developed selenide thermoelectric materials has been developed at JPL. The computerized model is quite comprehensive and enables the accurate detailing of the electrical and thermal effects that take place within the thermocouple under any desired set of operation conditions, including heat input, ambient temperature and load conditions. The paper discusses the logic flow of the computer model and presents the time and temperature dependent results for various degradation mechanisms and rates as they have been established to date.
Noon, E. L.↗
Hubble Space Telescope electrical power system model
This paper describes one of the most comprehensive models ever developed for a spacecraft electrical power system (EPS). The model was developed for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to evaluate vehicle power system performance and to assist in scheduling maintenance and refurbishment missions by providing data needed to forecast EPS power and energy margins for the mission phases being planned. The EPS model requires a specific mission phase description as the input driver and uses a high granularity database to produce a multi-orbit power system performance report. The EPS model accurately predicts the power system response to various mission timelines over the entire operational life of the spacecraft.
Baggett, Randy↗
Comparing Parameter Estimation Techniques for an Electrical Power Transformer Oil Temperature Prediction Model
This paper examines various sources of error in MIT's improved top oil temperature rise over ambient temperature model and estimation process. The sources of error are the current parameter estimation technique, quantization noise, and post-processing of the transformer data. Results from this paper will show that an output error parameter estimation technique should be selected to replace the current least squares estimation technique. The output error technique obtained accurate predictions of transformer behavior, revealed the best error covariance, obtained consistent parameter estimates, and provided for valid and sensible parameters. This paper will also show that the output error technique should be used to minimize errors attributed to post-processing (decimation) of the transformer data. Models used in this paper are validated using data from a large transformer in service.
Morris, A. Terry↗
SPACE: Three Decades of Spacecraft Power Systems Analysis with Fortran
The SPACE (System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation) Fortran program developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has enabled power generation predictions and energy balance analyses for spacecraft electrical power systems (EPS) since 1988. SPACE was originally designed to analyze the EPS of the Space Station Freedom and continues to support certifications for visiting vehicles and extravehicular activities on the International Space Station today. Another version of SPACE currently supports design and mission planning operations for the Orion and Gateway vehicles as part of NASA’s Artemis program. In total, over 50 engineers have contributed to the development and use of SPACE on various platforms throughout its history. Ongoing code modernization efforts aim to generalize the program for use with different vehicles and configurations. While SPACE team analysts currently interact with the program via the command line, future development work also includes the creation of a graphical user interface for use by flight operations personnel. The SPACE code thus has a long legacy in spacecraft EPS analysis and will continue to play a critical role in future human spaceflight missions by leveraging the computational power of Fortran.
Fortran↗
A real time simulation tool for predicting the performance of power electronics technology used in grid.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Piezoelectric Power Requirements for Active Vibration Control
This paper presents a method for predicting the power consumption of piezoelectric actuators utilized for active vibration control. Analytical developments and experimental tests show that the maximum power required to control a structure using surface-bonded piezoelectric actuators is independent of the dynamics between the piezoelectric actuator and the host structure. The results demonstrate that for a perfectly-controlled system, the power consumption is a function of the quantity and type of piezoelectric actuators and the voltage and frequency of the control law output signal. Furthermore, as control effectiveness decreases, the power consumption of the piezoelectric actuators decreases. In addition, experimental results revealed a non-linear behavior in the material properties of piezoelectric actuators. The material non- linearity displayed a significant increase in capacitance with an increase in excitation voltage. Tests show that if the non-linearity of the capacitance was accounted for, a conservative estimate of the power can easily be determined.
Brennan, Matthew C.↗
Predicted and Measured Modal Sound Power Levels for a Fan Ingesting Distorted Inflow
Refinements have been made to a method for estimating the modal sound power levels of a ducted fan ingesting distorted inflow. By assuming that each propagating circumferential mode consists only of a single radial mode (the one with the highest cut-off ratio), circumferential mode sound power levels can be computed for a variety of inflow distortion patterns and operating speeds. Predictions from the refined theory have been compared to data from an experiment conducted in the Advanced Noise Control Fan at NASA Glenn Research Center. The inflow to the fan was distorted by inserting cylindrical rods radially into the inlet duct. The rods were placed at an axial location one rotor chord length upstream of the fan and arranged in both regular and irregular circumferential patterns. The fan was operated at 2000, 1800, and 1400 rpm. Acoustic pressure levels were measured in the fan inlet and exhaust ducts using the Rotating Rake fan mode measurement system. Far field sound pressure levels were also measured. It is shown that predicted trends in circumferential mode sound power levels closely match the experimental data for all operating speeds and distortion configurations tested. Insight gained through this work is being used to develop more advanced tools for predicting fan inflow distortion tone noise levels.
Koch, L. Danielle↗
Power Systems Evaluated for Solar Electric Propulsion Vehicles
Solar electric propulsion (SEP) mission architectures are applicable to a wide range NASA missions including the robotic exploration of the outer planets in the next decade and the human exploration of Mars within the next 2 decades. SEP enables architectures that are very mass efficient with reasonable power levels (1-MW class) aerobrake and cryogenic upper-stage transportation technologies are utilized. In this architecture, the efficient SEP stage transfers the payload from low Earth orbit (LEO) High Energy Elliptical Parking Orbit (HEEPO) within a period of 6 to 12 months. highthrust, cryogenic upper stage and payload then separate from the SEP vehicle for injection to the planetary target, allowing for fast heliocentric trip times. This mission architecture offers a potential reduction in mass to LEO in comparison to alternative all-chemical nuclear propulsion schemes. Mass reductions may allow launch vehicle downsizing enable missions that would have been grounded because of cost constraints. The preceding figure illustrates a conceptual SEP stage design for a human Mars mission. Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field designed conceptual SEP vehicle, conceived the mission architecture to use this vehicle, and analyzed the vehicle s performance. This SEP stage has a dry mass of 35 metric tons (MT), 40 MT of xenon propellant, and a photovoltaic array that spans 110 m, providing power to a cluster of eight 100-kW Hall thrusters. The stage can transfer an 80-MT payload and upper stage to the desired HEEPO. Preliminary packaging studies show this space-station-class SEP vehicle meets the proposed "Magnum" launch vehicle and volume requirements with considerable margin. An SEP vehicle for outer planetary missions, such as the Europa Mapper Mission, would be dramatically smaller than human Mars mission SEP stage. In this mission architecture, the SEP power system with the payload to provide spacecraft power throughout the mission. Several photovoltaic array design concepts were considered for the SEP vehicle power system for the human mission to Mars. These include a space station derivative, a SCARLET (Solar Concentrator Arrays with Refractive Linear Element Technology) derivative, and a hybrid inflatable-deployable thin polymer membrane array with thin-film solar cells (as shown in the concept illustration). This concept is based on a design developed for the Next Generation Space Telescope Sun shield. The array is divided into 16 independent electrical sections with 500-V, negative-grounded solar cell strings. The power system employs a channelized, 500-Vdc power management and distribution (PMAD) architecture with lithium ion batteries for energy storage for vehicle and payload secondary loads (the high-power Hall thrusters do not operate in eclipse periods). The 500-V PMAD voltage permits "direct-drive" thruster operation, greatly reducing the power processing unit size, complexity, and power loss. Similar power system architecture, designs, and technology are assumed for the Europa Mapper Mission SEP vehicle. The primary exceptions are that the photovoltaic array is assumed to consist of two rectangular wings and that the power system rating is 15 kW in Earth orbit and 200 W at Europa. To size the SEP vehicle power system, a dedicated Fortran code was developed to predict detailed power system performance, mass, and thermal control requirements. This code also modeled all the relevant Earth orbit environments; that is, the particulate radiation, plasma, meteoroids and debris, ultraviolet radiation, contamination, and thermal conditions. Analysis results for the Human Mars Mission SEP vehicle show a power system mass of 9-MT and photovoltaic array area of 5800-square meters for the thin-membrane design concept with CuInS2 thin-film cells. Power processing unit input power for a thin-membrane array design with three-junction, amorphous SiGe solar cells is shown in the graph. Power falls off rapidly inhe first weeks of the mission because of light-induced (Staebler-Wronksi) solar cell losses. During the next 200 days, power decreases steadily as the SEP stage spirals through the proton belts and sustains the bulk of the mission radiation damage. Once the vehicle apogee is above approximately four Earth radii, little additional degradation is incurred. From 400 to 800 days, a 1100-km "parking" orbit is maintained to await the next payload transfer opportunity. This orbit is below the main proton belt, and thus, little radiation dose is accumulated during this time period. During the second LEO-to-HEEPO transfer, power degrades somewhat further, but power requirements are still met. In comparison, the Europa Mapper SEP vehicle power system had a mass of 150 kg and a thin membrane array area of 100 square meters.
Kerslake, Thomas W.↗
Flow reversal benchmark of a one-sided heated narrow rectangular channel with CATHARE and RELAP5
Flow reversal in narrow coolant channels can be a crucial phenomenon for the safety of research reactors with a downward nominal flow direction. During a loss of forced flow accident, the downward flow stagnates briefly before transitioning into an upward natural circulation flow. The fuel may be damaged if dryout occurs and threshold fuel and/or cladding temperatures are exceeded. A comprehensive study is provided for flow reversal in narrow rectangular channels by examining experimental data and conducting software model analyses. The literature on flow reversal was reviewed, and selected experimental datasets were used to benchmark against CATHARE and RELAP5 models and also compare the code calculations with each other. The experimental data comes from flow reversal tests conducted with a narrow rectangular channel with one-sided heating. The results were compared with experimental data for successful flow reversal tests and predicted dryout power for dryout conditions. Also, the study examined the effects of the pump coastdown period, inlet liquid temperature, system pressure, and localized pressure drops. The experimental results showed that shorter coastdown periods, reduced pressure drops, and lower coolant inlet temperatures increased the dryout power. However, the system pressure did not noticeably affect the results. The simulation results showed that both CATHARE and RELAP5 agreed with experimental data, capturing the trends of the experimental results. Slight differences between each code calculation, as well as the predicted and measured dryout powers, were attributed to experimental uncertainties and the modeling of physical phenomena such as wall nucleation, interfacial heat transfer, drag coefficients, and critical heat flux. Overall, this study provides an understanding of flow reversal and the prediction capabilities of thermal-hydraulics software models. In conclusion, a future study of the flow reversal benchmark of a narrow rectangular channel with two-sided heating may provide additional valuable insights.
CATHARE↗
REDLY
SAND2025-11838O REDLY provides a framework for designing, training, and validating physics-informed neural networks for power system applications. It trains surrogates for Alternating Current Power Flow prediction and general economic dispatch problems, such as Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow and Direct Current Power Flow. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
Blakely, Logan↗
The role of fluctuating forces in the generation of compressor noise
The results of a theoretical and experimental study on the role of aerodynamically-induced fluctuating forces in the sound generation by axial-flow compressors are presented. Analytical models for the generation and radiation of sound by rotor/stator combinations were developed. For the experimental substantiation of the analytical results, the technology was developed to measure fluctuating forces directly on rotating airfoils using miniature differential-pressure sensors and FM telemetry. Under the assumption of full coherence of the force field on the blade, radiated sound power was predicted from the force measurements on blades and compared with measured sound power. Both broadband radiation from a single rotating airfoil and discrete frequency radiation due to interaction of multi-bladed stator/rotor configurations were investigated. The results indicate the necessity to obtain information on the details of the force field for accurate prediction of the radiated sound spectrum.
Heller, H. H.↗
Gearing
Gearing technology in its modern form has a history of only 100 years. However, the earliest form of gearing can probably be traced back to fourth century B.C. Greece. Current gear practice and recent advances in the technology are drawn together. The history of gearing is reviewed briefly in the Introduction. Subsequent sections describe types of gearing and their geometry, processing, and manufacture. Both conventional and more recent methods of determining gear stress and deflections are considered. The subjects of life prediction and lubrication are additions to the literature. New and more complete methods of power loss predictions as well as an optimum design of spur gear meshes are described. Conventional and new types of power transmission systems are presented.
John J. Coy↗
The Applications of NASA Mission Technologies to the Greening of Human Impact
I will give an overview talk about flight software systems, robotics technologies and modeling for energy minimization as applied to vehicles and buildings infrastructures. A dominant issue in both design and operations of robotic spacecraft is the minimization of energy use. In the design and building of spacecraft increased power is acquired only at the cost of additional mass and volumes and ultimately cost. Consequently, interplanetary spacecrafts are designed to have the minimum essential power and those designs often incorporate careful timing of all power use. Operationally, the availability of power is the most influential constraint for the use of planetary surface robots, such as the Mars Exploration Rovers. The amount of driving done, the amount of science accomplished and indeed the survivability of the spacecraft itself is determined by the power available for use. For the Mars Exploration Rovers there are four tools which are used: (1) models of the rover and it s thermal and power use (2) predictive environmental models of power input and thermal environment (3) fine grained manipulation of power use (4) optimization modeling and planning tools. In this talk I will discuss possible applications of this methodology to minimizing power use on Earth, especially in buildings.
Sims, Michael H.↗
Thermal instabilities limiting power dissipation in transistors.
Second breakdown and other thermal instabilities analyzed by heat flow equation, obtaining stability criteria predicting reduced power dissipation for transistor at low currents
Spitzer, S. M.↗
Solar Power System Evaluated for the Human Exploration of Mars
The electric power system is a crucial element of any mission for the human exploration of the Martian surface. The bulk of the power generated will be delivered to crew life support systems, extravehicular activity suits, robotic vehicles, and predeployed in situ resource utilization (ISRU) equipment. In one mission scenario, before the crew departs for Mars, the ISRU plant operates for 435 days producing liquefied methane and oxygen for ascent-stage propellants and water for crew life support. About 200 days after ISRU production is completed, the crew arrives for a 500-day surface stay. In this scenario, the power system must operate for a total of 1130 days (equivalent to 1100 Martian "sols"), providing 400 MW-hr of energy to the ISRU plant and up to 18 kW of daytime user power. A photovoltaic power-generation system with regenerative fuel cell (RFC) energy storage has been under study at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field. The conceptual power system is dominated by the 4000- m2 class photovoltaic array that is deployed orthogonally as four tent structures, each approximately 5 m on a side and 100-m long. The structures are composed of composite members deployed by an articulating mast, an inflatable boom, or rover vehicles, and are subsequently anchored to the ground. Array panels consist of thin polymer membranes with thin-film solar cells. The array is divided into eight independent electrical sections with solar cell strings operating at 600 V. Energy storage is provided by regenerative fuel cells based on hydrogen-oxygen proton exchange membrane technology. Hydrogen and oxygen reactants are stored in gaseous form at 3000 psi, and the water produced is stored at 14.7 psi. The fuel cell operating temperature is maintained by a 40-m2 deployable pumped-fluid loop radiator that uses water as the working fluid. The power management and distribution (PMAD) architecture features eight independent, regulated 600-Vdc channels. Power management and distribution power cables use various gauges of copper conductors with ethylene tetrafluoroethylene insulation. To assess power system design options and sizing, we developed a dedicated Fortran code to predict detailed power system performance and estimate system mass. This code also modeled the requisite Mars surface environments: solar insolation, Sun angles, dust storms, dust deposition, and thermal and ultraviolet radiation. Using this code, trade studies were performed to assess performance and mass sensitivities to power system design parameters (photovoltaic array geometry and orientation) and mission parameters (landing date and landing site latitude, terrain slope, and dust storm activity). Mission analysis cases were also run. Power results are shown in this graph for an analysis case with a September 1, 2012, landing date; 18.95 North latitude landing site; two seasonal dusts storms; and tent arrays. To meet user load requirements and the ISRU energy requirement, an 8-metric ton (MT) power system and 4000-m2 photovoltaic array area were required for the assumed advanced CuInS2 thin-film solar cell technology. In this figure, the top curve is the average daytime photovoltaic array power, the middle curve is average daytime user load power, and the bottom curve is nighttime power. At mission day 1, daytime user power exceeds 120 kW before falling off to 80 kW at the end of the mission. Throughout the mission, nighttime user power is set to the nighttime power requirement. In this analysis, "nighttime" is defined as the 13- to 15-hr period when array power output is below the daytime power requirement. During dust storms, power system capability falls off dramatically so that by mission day 900, a daily energy balance cannot be maintained. Under these conditions, the ISRU plant is placed in standby mode, and the regenerative fuel cell energy storage is gradually discharged to meet user loads.
Kerslake, Thomas W.↗
Experimentation in Exploring Photovoltaic Inverter Dynamics Under Different Irradiance Levels Through a Data-Driven Approach
As conventional direct connections of synchronous generators are being phased out, inverter-based resources (IBRs) with grid support functions are increasingly being integrated into power systems. This transition requires the development of accurate dynamic models for IBRs to predict how power systems will adapt to varying levels of IBRs penetration, establish grid code requirements, and ensure compliance. Here, this study introduces an active probing signal-based data-driven modeling technique to accurately derive the dynamics model of a smart photovoltaic inverter operating in Volt-Watt and Freq-Watt modes, in compliance with the IEEE 1547–2018 standard. The paper focuses on investigating how the dynamics of the PV inverter model respond to fluctuations in solar irradiance, utilizing real-time digital simulator experimentation. The experimental analysis demonstrates that the amplitude of dynamics fluctuates with changes in irradiance across both operational modes and confirms the active power’s dependence on irradiance levels. Furthermore, the nature of inverter dynamics varies distinctly between the different modes of activation. Critically, our findings indicate that dynamic models require DC-gain adjustments to accommodate contrasting irradiance levels, highlighting a negative gradient linear relationship between the DC-gain of each model and the irradiance.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Investigation of onshore wind farm wake recovery with in situ aircraft measurements during AWAKEN
The share of wind power for electricity supply is increasing worldwide. This highly variable resource requires the improved prediction of power output for network stability. The interaction between wind farm wakes and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) introduces uncertainties in power production that warrant detailed investigation. The flow downwind of wind farms is characterized by a reduction in wind speed and an increase in turbulence, which both vary with atmospheric conditions. During the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN), the Technische Universität Braunschweig conducted measurement flights with a research aircraft upwind and downwind of onshore wind farms in the southern Great Plains in Oklahoma in the USA. This study utilizes data from 20 flights conducted at approximately hub height in September 2023 to investigate the wind field variability downwind of the wind farms and vertical profiles to observe atmospheric stratification. The flights were aligned perpendicular to the main wind direction downwind of the King Plains and Armadillo Flats wind farms. Additionally, lidar data from both upwind and downwind ground-based measurement sites and sonic anemometer data were used for comprehensive analysis. Results indicate that under stable ABL conditions, the wake persists at greater downwind distances with a higher velocity deficit in the wake relative to the undisturbed flow compared to unstable stratification. In homogeneous terrain under stable conditions, wake recovery to 95 % occurs between a distance of 4.5 and 9 km downwind of the wind farm. In the semi-complex terrain characterized by shallow hills, slopes, and valleys, the wake exhibits a higher velocity deficit compared to homogeneous terrain, while in some cases the wake was amplified by the terrain resulting in higher velocity deficit 10 km downwind of the wind farm compared to the measurements closer to the wind farm. The turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and “TKE difference” was found to be a valuable measure in understanding wakes in a semi-complex terrain, showing a clear wake recovery and formation depending on the stratification of the ABL.
17 WIND ENERGY↗