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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Practical Probabilistic Programming

Recent advances in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) have provided the capability for exact inference: computing a closed-form probability distribution for a given probabilistic program. In particular, the new language Roulette uses a language oriented programming (LOP) approach, wherein analysts build new programming languages on top of a set of primitives provided by Roulette, which then translates these structures into a weighted model counting problem which can be solved by automated reasoning tools. However, because Roulette provides few convenience features, developing these new languages is challenging even for expert users. We developed a standard library of common probability functions for Roulette with the goal of improved usability. This included approximation of continuous probability density functions using discrete probability mass functions. We demonstrated this approach by modeling a cosmic ray striking a RAM controller. We found that Roulette provides a powerful interface for highly expressive probabilistic programs to be generated. In collaboration with the NNSA Advanced Simulation and Computing program, which resulted in development of a tool called Circulette, we were able to model complex circuits expressed in Verilog using probabilistic programs with an expressivity not previously possible. Our research question that motivated the development of a Roulette standard library was to determine whether non-experts could use a PPL to model relevant problems regarding radiation effects on microelectronics. This standard library improved the expressivity of Roulette by implementing common probability density functions, mathematical operators on distributions, and support for empirical distributions. While Roulette is a powerful modeling language, the untyped, LOP approach makes error messages difficult to understand and requires expert aid. We recommend further research on Roulette, especially with its error messages, to enable improved usability. At the same time, this project demonstrated that for users familiar with Roulette and the LOP approach, Roulette provides powerful new capabilities that can be integrated with other Sandia modeling capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cost and Throughput Analysis for the NASA Ames Arc Jet Modernization Program

NASA Ames Center is currently evaluating alternatives to modernize the Arc Jet Complex, a critical part of testing for NASA’s planetary missions. NASA’s Arc Jet Complex facilities “are used to simulate the aerothermodynamic heating that a spacecraft endures throughout hypersonic atmospheric entry, and to test candidate thermal protection system (TPS) materials and systems. “Because planetary mission schedules often have tight windows due to planetary alignment constraints, a small increase in schedule could result in a two-year delay. Such a delay could increase the cost of a $1billionmissionbyhundreds of millions of dollars due to project personnel pay and clean room storage. To avoid these costs, the authors support NASA Ames in evaluating return on investment (ROI) and effectiveness of alternatives for modernizing the complex. The first input into the ROI is the deconstruction and construction cost estimates, which are developed using independent research on highly specialized subsystems, vendor quotes, and Unified Facilities Criteria (UFC), depending on the facility and work package. One of the measures of effectiveness is throughput analysis of the test bays, as a main goal of the modernization is to increase the number of possible test runs per year. This analysis is conducted via a probabilistic simulation and accounts for a variety of stochastic factors that influence the sequence of test runs, such as the facility availability; test complexity; the need to pause to assess test results; test failure; and the possibility of a system failure. The methodologies for both these analyses are discussed, along with the challenges presented due to the unique nature of the highly specialized test equipment.

Jennifer Scheel↗
NASA NTRS2011

Estimating the Loss of Crew and Loss of Mission for Crew Spacecraft

Once the US Space Shuttle retires in 2011, the Russian Soyuz Launcher and Soyuz Spacecraft will comprise the only means for crew transportation to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The U.S. Government and NASA have contracted for crew transportation services to the ISS with Russia. The resulting implications for the US space program including issues such as astronaut safety must be carefully considered. Are the astronauts and cosmonauts safer on the Soyuz than the Space Shuttle system? Is the Soyuz launch system more robust than the Space Shuttle? The Soyuz launcher has been in operation for over 40 years. There have been only two loss of life incidents and two loss of mission incidents. Given that the most recent incident took place in 1983, how do we determine current reliability of the system? Do failures of unmanned Soyuz rockets impact the reliability of the currently operational man-rated launcher? Does the Soyuz exhibit characteristics that demonstrate reliability growth and how would that be reflected in future estimates of success? NASA s next manned rocket and spacecraft development project will have to meet the Agency Threshold requirements set forth by NASA. The reliability targets are currently several times higher than the Shuttle and possibly even the Soyuz. Can these targets be compared to the reliability of the Soyuz to determine whether they are realistic and achievable? To help answer these questions this paper will explore how to estimate the reliability of the Soyuz Launcher/Spacecraft system, compare it to the Space Shuttle, and its potential impacts for the future of manned spaceflight. Specifically it will look at estimating the Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM) probability using historical data, reliability growth, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques used to generate these numbers.

Lutomski, Michael G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Markov Decision Processes for Intelligent, Risk-Informed Asset-Management Decision-Making

Advanced nuclear reactors are a promising option for aiding the world in achieving its net-zero carbon emission goals, however, there are significant challenges to attaining and maintaining economic competitiveness with other sources of electricity. To improve the economic competitiveness of advanced reactor designs, a project was initiated to explore the use of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to guide asset-management decision-making during advanced reactor operation. MDPs are a powerful tool for optimizing decision-making in complex environments and their application to advanced reactors can aid in planning maintenance and repair activities to minimize downtime and maximize generation. The described approach expands on previous work regarding the use of MDPs for operational decision-making through the direct incorporation of real-time plant information. The integral MDP analysis includes information from online component diagnostic tools and the plant’s real-time generation risk assessment (GRA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which evaluate plant risk from both an economic and safety perspective. The result is an asset-management optimization framework that is based on real-time data regarding plant component status and the current best-estimate of plant risk. The paper presents an overview of the theoretical framework to incorporate the different information pathways into an integral MDP analysis, along with example analyses.

Grabaskas, David↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2010

Topics covered include: Software Tool Integrating Data Flow Diagrams and Petri Nets; Adaptive Nulling for Interferometric Detection of Planets; Reducing the Volume of NASA Earth-Science Data; Reception of Multiple Telemetry Signals via One Dish Antenna; Space-Qualified Traveling-Wave Tube; Smart Power Supply for Battery-Powered Systems; Parallel Processing of Broad-Band PPM Signals; Inexpensive Implementation of Many Strain Gauges; Constant-Differential-Pressure Two-Fluid Accumulator; Inflatable Tubular Structures Rigidized with Foams; Power Generator with Thermo-Differential Modules; Mechanical Extraction of Power From Ocean Currents and Tides; Nitrous Oxide/Paraffin Hybrid Rocket Engines; Optimized Li-Ion Electrolytes Containing Fluorinated Ester Co-Solvents; Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior; Foldable Instrumented Bits for Ultrasonic/Sonic Penetrators; Compact Rare Earth Emitter Hollow Cathode; High-Precision Shape Control of In-Space Deployable Large Membrane/Thin-Shell Reflectors; Rapid Active Sampling Package; Miniature Lightweight Ion Pump; Cryogenic Transport of High-Pressure-System Recharge Gas; Water-Vapor Raman Lidar System Reaches Higher Altitude; Compact Ku-Band T/R Module for High-Resolution Radar Imaging of Cold Land Processes; Wide-Field-of-View, High-Resolution, Stereoscopic Imager; Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography with High-Contrast Dielectrics; Wavefront Control and Image Restoration with Less Computing; Polarization Imaging Apparatus; Stereoscopic Machine-Vision System Using Projected Circles; Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool; Performance Bounds on Two Concatenated, Interleaved Codes; Parameterizing Coefficients of a POD-Based Dynamical System; Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition; Algorithm for Lossless Compression of Calibrated Hyperspectral Imagery; Universal Decoder for PPM of any Order; Algorithm for Stabilizing a POD-Based Dynamical System; Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams; Processing AIRS Scientific Data Through Level 3; Web-Based Requesting and Scheduling Use of Facilities; AutoGen Version 5.0; Time-Tag Generation Script; PPM Receiver Implemented in Software; Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer Product File Readers; Reporting Differences Between Spacecraft Sequence Files; Coordinating "Execute" Data for ISS and Space Shuttle; Database for Safety-Oriented Tracking of Chemicals; Apparatus for Cold, Pressurized Biogeochemical Experiments; Growing B Lymphocytes in a Three-Dimensional Culture System; Tissue-like 3D Assemblies of Human Broncho-Epithelial Cells; Isolation of Resistance-Bearing Microorganisms; Oscillating Cell Culture Bioreactor; and Liquid Cooling/Warming Garment.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2013

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗
NASA NTRS2004

Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics Technology Evaluation and Selection Using a Multi-Attribute Decision Making Process and Non-Deterministic Design

The Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center has investigated revolutionary Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics (PAA) technologies and configurations for a Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) type aircraft as part of its research for NASA s Quiet Aircraft Technology (QAT) Project. Within the context of the long-term NASA goal of reducing the perceived aircraft noise level by a factor of 4 relative to 1997 state of the art, major configuration changes in the propulsion airframe integration system were explored with noise as a primary design consideration. An initial down-select and assessment of candidate PAA technologies for the BWB was performed using a Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) process consisting of organized brainstorming and decision-making tools. The assessments focused on what effect the PAA technologies had on both the overall noise level of the BWB and what effect they had on other major design considerations such as weight, performance and cost. A probabilistic systems analysis of the PAA configurations that presented the best noise reductions with the least negative impact on the system was then performed. Detailed results from the MADM study and the probabilistic systems analysis will be published in the near future.

Burg, Cecile M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Risk-Constrained Multi-Stage Decision Making Approach to the Architectural Analysis of Mars Missions

This paper presents a novel risk-constrained multi-stage decision making approach to the architectural analysis of planetary rover missions. In particular, focusing on a 2018 Mars rover concept, which was considered as part of a potential Mars Sample Return campaign, we model the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) phase and the rover traverse phase as four sequential decision-making stages. The problem is to find a sequence of divert and driving maneuvers so that the rover drive is minimized and the probability of a mission failure (e.g., due to a failed landing) is below a user specified bound. By solving this problem for several different values of the model parameters (e.g., divert authority), this approach enables rigorous, accurate and systematic trade-offs for the EDL system vs. the mobility system, and, more in general, cross-domain trade-offs for the different phases of a space mission. The overall optimization problem can be seen as a chance-constrained dynamic programming problem, with the additional complexity that 1) in some stages the disturbances do not have any probabilistic characterization, and 2) the state space is extremely large (i.e, hundreds of millions of states for trade-offs with high-resolution Martian maps). To this purpose, we solve the problem by performing an unconventional combination of average and minimax cost analysis and by leveraging high efficient computation tools from the image processing community. Preliminary trade-off results are presented.

entry, descent, and landing (EDL)↗
NASA NTRS2010

Estimating the Reliability of a Soyuz Spacecraft Mission

Once the US Space Shuttle retires in 2010, the Russian Soyuz Launcher and Soyuz Spacecraft will comprise the only means for crew transportation to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The U.S. Government and NASA have contracted for crew transportation services to the ISS with Russia. The resulting implications for the US space program including issues such as astronaut safety must be carefully considered. Are the astronauts and cosmonauts safer on the Soyuz than the Space Shuttle system? Is the Soyuz launch system more robust than the Space Shuttle? Is it safer to continue to fly the 30 year old Shuttle fleet for crew transportation and cargo resupply than the Soyuz? Should we extend the life of the Shuttle Program? How does the development of the Orion/Ares crew transportation system affect these decisions? The Soyuz launcher has been in operation for over 40 years. There have been only two loss of life incidents and two loss of mission incidents. Given that the most recent incident took place in 1983, how do we determine current reliability of the system? Do failures of unmanned Soyuz rockets impact the reliability of the currently operational man-rated launcher? Does the Soyuz exhibit characteristics that demonstrate reliability growth and how would that be reflected in future estimates of success? NASA s next manned rocket and spacecraft development project is currently underway. Though the projects ultimate goal is to return to the Moon and then to Mars, the launch vehicle and spacecraft s first mission will be for crew transportation to and from the ISS. The reliability targets are currently several times higher than the Shuttle and possibly even the Soyuz. Can these targets be compared to the reliability of the Soyuz to determine whether they are realistic and achievable? To help answer these questions this paper will explore how to estimate the reliability of the Soyuz Launcher/Spacecraft system, compare it to the Space Shuttle, and its potential impacts for the future of manned spaceflight. Specifically it will look at estimating the Loss of Mission (LOM) probability using historical data, reliability growth, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques

Lutomski, Michael G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

GRACE Final Technical Report

The GRACE project (Grid that is Risk-Aware for Clean Electricity) was a five-year research initiative funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Research Projects Agency- Energy (ARPA-E) under the PERFORM program. Led by Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment, with contributions from The Ohio State University, North Carolina State University, Dartmouth College, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the project addressed a fundamental challenge in grid management: conventional software plans for a single most-likely outcome and relies on reserves as a buffer, leaving utilities poorly equipped for the growing variability introduced by renewable energy. GRACE demonstrated a better approach: explicitly representing thousands of plausible future scenarios and choosing operating schedules that perform well across all of them.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Space Shuttle Main Engine Implications for the Abort-to-Orbit Off-the-Pad Study

In 2001, the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) project office was contacted by the Space Shuttle Ascent Guidance, Navigation, and Control group to provide the engine perspective for an Abort-to-Orbit (ATO) study. The purpose of the AT0 Off-the-Pad study was to determine the feasibility of eliminating the Return to Launch Site and Transatlantic abort modes by using a five-segment solid rocket booster and throttling the remaining SSMEs to a higher power level. This would enable all abort modes to be Abort-to-Orbit. The SSME project office at Marshall Space Flight Center collaborated with MSFC's Space Transportation Directorate and Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power to provide the AT0 Off-the-Pad study with the analysis required. Power levels at 109%, 1 11% and 1 13% of rated power level were studied as well as mixture ratio decreases down to 5.85. SSME was to evaluate and define the technical and programmatic impacts to certify the SSME to these abort power levels. The SSME systems analysis group performed a steady state analysis using the SSME power balance model to determine if there were any technical issues associated with higher power level, low mixture ratio operation. Based on each power level/mixture ratio combination, an engine certification plan was created and a preliminary probabilistic risk assessment was performed. The results showed favorable results for higher power 1evel/lower mixture ratio SSME operation. In nearly all performance and redline parameters, the traded engine operation was encompassed by nominal engine performance of a prior engine configuration.

Schoffstoll, Dayna L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2024

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2024. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2024 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino-Argon Cross Sections in MicroBooNE: Measurements Spanning Multiple Interaction Channels, Final States, and Neutrino Fluxes

Neutrinos are one of the most elusive particles in the Standard Model of particle physics due to their tiny interaction cross section, which makes them challenging to detect and study. There are three known flavors of neutrinos, and any given neutrino probabilistically oscillates between them as a function of the particle's energy and propagation distance. Experimental characterization of these oscillations elucidates fundamental properties of the neutrino and the Standard Model. Meeting the precision goals of ongoing and future oscillation measurements requires detailed modeling of the way neutrinos interact with nuclear matter. Precision modeling of these interactions is a challenging theoretical problem, rich with intricate physics effects to explore, and requires input from equally precise measurements of neutrino-nucleus interaction cross sections spanning a broad range of scattering channels. To fill this need, there is an ongoing multi-experiment effort to measure these cross sections across energies, interaction channels, and nuclear targets. This thesis describes three analyses reporting neutrino-argon cross section measurements with data from the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber detector. These span multiple interaction channels, final state topologies, and neutrino fluxes. The first analysis is a set of inclusive charged current muon neutrino cross section measurements for final states with and without protons, which provides a unique view of the hadronic final state produced in these interactions. Second is a set of cross section measurements for neutral current neutral pion production, which provides a vital dataset on this under-characterized channel. Third is significant progress on measuring neutrinos produced by kaons decaying at rest, which represents a unique opportunity to measure cross sections with a mono-energetic flux of neutrinos. These measurements are accompanied by a modeling study in the GiBUU theory framework, which probes the sensitivity of the muon neutrino and pion production measurements to the modeling of nucleon-nucleon final state interactions in neutrino-nucleus scattering.

Bogart, Benjamin [Michigan U.]↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Tech Briefs, April 2011

Topics covered include: Amperometric Solid Electrolyte Oxygen Microsensors with Easy Batch Fabrication; Two-Axis Direct Fluid Shear Stress Sensor for Aerodynamic Applications; Target Assembly to Check Boresight Alignment of Active Sensors; Virtual Sensor Test Instrumentation; Evaluation of the Reflection Coefficient of Microstrip Elements for Reflectarray Antennas; Miniaturized Ka-Band Dual-Channel Radar; Continuous-Integration Laser Energy Lidar Monitor; Miniaturized Airborne Imaging Central Server System; Radiation-Tolerant, SpaceWire-Compatible Switching Fabric; Small Microprocessor for ASIC or FPGA Implementation; Source-Coupled, N-Channel, JFET-Based Digital Logic Gate Structure Using Resistive Level Shifters; High-Voltage-Input Level Translator Using Standard CMOS; Monitoring Digital Closed-Loop Feedback Systems; MASCOT - MATLAB Stability and Control Toolbox; MIRO Continuum Calibration for Asteroid Mode; GOATS Image Projection Component; Coded Modulation in C and MATLAB; Low-Dead-Volume Inlet for Vacuum Chamber; Thermal Control Method for High-Current Wire Bundles by Injecting a Thermally Conductive Filler; Method for Selective Cleaning of Mold Release from Composite Honeycomb Surfaces; Infrared-Bolometer Arrays with Reflective Backshorts; Commercialization of LARC (trade mark) -SI Polyimide Technology; Novel Low-Density Ablators Containing Hyperbranched Poly(azomethine)s; Carbon Nanotubes on Titanium Substrates for Stray Light Suppression; Monolithic, High-Speed Fiber-Optic Switching Array for Lidar; Grid-Tied Photovoltaic Power System; Spectroelectrochemical Instrument Measures TOC; A Miniaturized Video System for Monitoring Drosophila Behavior; Hydrofocusing Bioreactor Produces Anti-Cancer Alkaloids; Creep Measurement Video Extensometer; Radius of Curvature Measurement of Large Optics Using Interferometry and Laser Tracker n-B-pi-p Superlattice Infrared Detector; Safe Onboard Guidance and Control Under Probabilistic Uncertainty; General Tool for Evaluating High-Contrast Coronagraphic Telescope Performance Error Budgets; Hidden Statistics of Schroedinger Equation; Optimal Padding for the Two-Dimensional Fast Fourier Transform; Spatial Query for Planetary Data; Higher Order Mode Coupling in Feed Waveguide of a Planar Slot Array Antenna; Evolutionary Computational Methods for Identifying Emergent Behavior in Autonomous Systems; Sampling Theorem in Terms of the Bandwidth and Sampling Interval; Meteoroid/Orbital Debris Shield Engineering Development Practice and Procedure; Self-Balancing, Optical-Center-Pivot, Fast-Steering Mirror; Wireless Orbiter Hang-Angle Inclinometer System; and Internal Electrostatic Discharge Monitor - IESDM.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2008

Geometric Modeling of Inclusions as Ellipsoids

Nonmetallic inclusions in gas turbine disk alloys can have a significant detrimental impact on fatigue life. Because large inclusions that lead to anomalously low lives occur infrequently, probabilistic approaches can be utilized to avoid the excessively conservative assumption of lifing to a large inclusion in a high stress location. A prerequisite to modeling the impact of inclusions on the fatigue life distribution is a characterization of the inclusion occurrence rate and size distribution. To help facilitate this process, a geometric simulation of the inclusions was devised. To make the simulation problem tractable, the irregularly sized and shaped inclusions were modeled as arbitrarily oriented, three independent dimensioned, ellipsoids. Random orientation of the ellipsoid is accomplished through a series of three orthogonal rotations of axes. In this report, a set of mathematical models for the following parameters are described: the intercepted area of a randomly sectioned ellipsoid, the dimensions and orientation of the intercepted ellipse, the area of a randomly oriented sectioned ellipse, the depth and width of a randomly oriented sectioned ellipse, and the projected area of a randomly oriented ellipsoid. These parameters are necessary to determine an inclusion s potential to develop a propagating fatigue crack. Without these mathematical models, computationally expensive search algorithms would be required to compute these parameters.

Bonacuse, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗
NASA NTRS1997

Lessons learned studying design issues for lunar and Mars settlements

In a study of lunar and Mars settlement concepts, an analysis was made of fundamental design assumptions in five technical areas against a model list of occupational and environmental health concerns. The technical areas included the proposed science projects to be supported, habitat and construction issues, closed ecosystem issues, the "MMM" issues (mining, material processing, and manufacturing), and the human elements of physiology, behavior, and mission approach. Four major lessons were learned. First it is possible to relate public health concerns to complex technological development in a proactive design mode, which has the potential for long-term cost savings. Second, it became very apparent that prior to committing any nation or international group to spending the billions to start and complete a lunar settlement, over the next century, that a significantly different approach must be taken from those previously proposed, to solve the closed ecosystem and "MMM" problems. Third, it also appears that the health concerns and technology issues to be addressed for human exploration into space are fundamentally those to be solved for human habitation of the Earth (as a closed ecosystem) in the 21st century. Finally, it is proposed that ecosystem design modeling must develop new tools, based on probabilistic models as a step up from closed circuit models.

Life Support Systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2025

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2025. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of the DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, the evaluation of data collected in 2025 continued to indicate that WVDP activities posed no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗