Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability estimates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

Atmospheric attenuation for correlated satellite communication ground sites

Link margin estimates are calculated for 30/20 GHz satellite communication systems employing closely-spaced (4 to 100 km) 'dual diversity' switched ground sites. The link margin estimates are based on a new analysis in which the bivariate rain attenuation density function for two correlated ground sites is modelled by an exponential density function. The results of the exponential density function analysis enable derivation of a direct relation between rain margin estimates and probability of exceedance (link availability). Margins typically in the range 2 to 12 dB are calculated for various ground site separations and summarized for seven city locations and five satellite orbit positions over the U.S. The results can be easily extended to other EHF satellite frequencies and other locations.

Christopher, P.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Some diatomic molecules from comet P/Halley's UV spectra near spacecraft flybys

The abundances of diatomic molecules seen in the UV both give clues to the parent compounds and help unravel the gas and ion mass spectrometry. From IUE spectra of comet Halley, upper limits on SH and CS(+) column densities and estimates of probable NO, S2, and SO are found. In particular, judged from the 226-nm gamma band, NO was relatively abundant at 2-8 x 10 to the 13th/sq cm on March 9-14. The production rate of S2 was around 1 x 10 to the 27th molecules/s at that time, but both showed day-to-day variability by 2-3 times.

Wallis, Max K.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Binary image classification

Motivated by the LANDSAT problem of estimating the probability of crop or geological types based on multi-channel satellite imagery data, Morris and Kostal (1983), Hill, Hinkley, Kostal, and Morris (1984), and Morris, Hinkley, and Johnston (1985) developed an empirical Bayes approach to this problem. Here, researchers return to those developments, making certain improvements and extensions, but restricting attention to the binary case of only two attributes.

Morris, Carl N.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in composite uniaxial strengths

Probabilistic composite micromechanics methods are developed that simulate uncertainties in unidirectional fiber composite strengths. These methods are in the form of computational procedures using composite mechanics with Monte Carlo simulation. The variables for which uncertainties are accounted include constituent strengths and their respective scatter. A graphite/epoxy unidirectional composite (ply) is studied to illustrate the procedure and its effectiveness to formally estimate the probable scatter in the composite uniaxial strengths. The results show that ply longitudinal tensile and compressive, transverse compressive and intralaminar shear strengths are not sensitive to single fiber anomalies (breaks, intergacial disbonds, matrix microcracks); however, the ply transverse tensile strength is.

Chamis, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Mars Rover and Sample Return Mission design

The current reference Mars Rover and Sample Return mission is described. Technical issues are outlined, including high-resolution image acquisition and reconstruction, approach navigation, ground and flight systems operational complexity, rover autonomy, autonomous rendezvous and docking in Mars orbit, aerocapture and aeromaneuver, estimating the probability of mission success, and end-to-end information system design. Focus is placed on lander hazard identification and avoidance, pinpoint landing guidance and control, Mars ascent vehicle guidance and control, planetary protection and quarantine, sample acquisition and preservation, project management and control, systems requirements and interface control, and costing. In addition, program issues such as international participation, fiscal constraints, and launch-vehicle availability are considered.

Kwok, Johnny H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Fluence-related risk coefficients using the Harderian gland data as an example

A new concept is introduced for assessing the risk of radiation-induced cancer to space travelers: a fluence-related risk coefficient F (called the risk cross section), which is the risk of a cancer per unit particle fluence for a given particle type. Fs are functions of the LET of the particles in the radiation field and, when integrated over fluence-LET spectra and summed, yield the risk of the endpoint of interest. As an example, tumor prevalence data in mice are used to estimate the probability of the induction of mouse Harderian-gland tumor per year on an extramagnetospheric mission inside an idealized shielding configuration of a spherical 1 g/sq cm hick aluminum shell. Results indicate a yearly tumor prevalence of 0.06 at solar minimum conditions, with 60 percent of this arising from charge components with Z between 10 and 28, and two-thirds of the contribution arising from LET components between 10 and 200 keV/micron.

Curtis, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Debris hazard for the Earth Observing System

The scientific mission of the Earth Observing System (EOS) is modeled to analyze the potential hazard of space debris and its impact on the effectiveness of the program. Specific attention is given to the hazard posed by untrackable debris and the velocities and impact rates of such debris. The NASA Debris Flux Model (DFM) is utilized, and the results are compared to those of the Frag model which predicts the background environment from known parameters and the Screen model for estimating collision probabilities. The probability of damaging impacts is shown to be significant and to increase over time; an EOS spacecraft has a 10 percent chance of being struck by a 1-cm object traveling at 14 km/s. The present analyses demonstrate the need to design the EOS spacecraft for a LEO environment in which collisions with debris are very likely.

Madler, Ronald A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne wind shear systems

An approach to evaluating reactive airborne windshear detection systems was developed to support a deployment study for future FAA ground-based windshear detection systems. The deployment study methodology assesses potential future safety enhancements beyond planned capabilities. The reactive airborne systems will be an integral part of planned windshear safety enhancements. The approach to evaluating reactive airborne systems involves separate analyses for both landing and take-off scenario. The analysis estimates the probability of effective warning considering several factors including NASA energy height loss characteristics, reactive alert timing, and a probability distribution for microburst strength.

Gibson, Joseph P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Observational evidence of preferred flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere

Ten years of stratospheric geopotential height data are analyzed in an attempt to determine whether there are preferred flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere. The data are taken from Stratospheric Sounding Units on board NOAA satellites. The probability density estimate of the amplitude of the wavenumber 1 10-mb height is found to be bimodal. The density distribution is composed of a dominant large-amplitude mode and a less frequent low-amplitude mode. When the wavenumber 1 10-mb height data are projected onto the phase plane defined by the 10-mb zonal-mean winds and wavenumber 1 100-mb heights, three preferred regimes are evident. The small-amplitude mode separates into a strong zonal wind-weak wave regime and a weak zonal wind-weak wave regime. The large-amplitude mode is an intermediate zonal wind-strong wave regime. Transitions between the large-amplitude regime and the weak zonal wind-weak wave regime are found to be associated with major stratospheric warmings. The clustering of the stratospheric data into the preferred flow regimes is interpreted in light of the bifurcation properties of the Holton and Mass model. The interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere is interpreted in terms of the relative frequency of the observed preferred regimes.

Pierce, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Design of partially supervised classifiers for multispectral image data

A partially supervised classification problem is addressed, especially when the class definition and corresponding training samples are provided a priori only for just one particular class. In practical applications of pattern classification techniques, a frequently observed characteristic is the heavy, often nearly impossible requirements on representative prior statistical class characteristics of all classes in a given data set. Considering the effort in both time and man-power required to have a well-defined, exhaustive list of classes with a corresponding representative set of training samples, this 'partially' supervised capability would be very desirable, assuming adequate classifier performance can be obtained. Two different classification algorithms are developed to achieve simplicity in classifier design by reducing the requirement of prior statistical information without sacrificing significant classifying capability. The first one is based on optimal significance testing, where the optimal acceptance probability is estimated directly from the data set. In the second approach, the partially supervised classification is considered as a problem of unsupervised clustering with initially one known cluster or class. A weighted unsupervised clustering procedure is developed to automatically define other classes and estimate their class statistics. The operational simplicity thus realized should make these partially supervised classification schemes very viable tools in pattern classification.

Jeon, Byeungwoo↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Equations for Estimating the Strength of TV Signals Scattered by Wind Turbines

During the late 1970's and early 1980's, concerns about the potential interference of wind turbine generators with electromagnetic communication signals led to a series of research studies, both in the laboratory and in the field, conducted by the staff of the University of Michigan Radiation Laboratory. These studies were sponsored by organizations such as the U.S. Department of Energy, the Solar Energy Research Institute, and private developers of wind power stations. Research objectives were to identify the mechanisms by which wind turbines might adversely affect communication signals, estimate the severity of these effects for different types of signals (e.g. television, radio, microwave, and navigation), and formulate mathematical models with which to predict the sizes of potential interference zones around wind turbines and wind power plants. This work formed the basis for preliminary standards on assessing electromagnetic interference (EMI) by wind turbines. With the current renewal of interest in wind energy projects, it is appropriate that the many experimental and analytical aspects of this pioneering work be reviewed and correlated. The purpose of this study is to combine test data and theory from previously published and unpublished research reports into a unified and consistent set of equations which are useful for estimating potential levels of television interference from wind turbines. To be comprehensive, these equations will include both horizontal-axis and vertical-axis wind turbines (HAWT's and VAWT's), blade configuration parameters (e.g. number, size, material, twist, and coning), signal frequency and power, and directional characteristics of the receiving antenna. The approach that is followed in this report is as follows. First, some basic equations that describe electromagnetic signals with interference are presented without detailed derivations, since the latter are available in the references. Minor changes in terminology are made for purposes of consistency. Next, the concept of a signal scatter ratio is introduced, which defines the fraction of the signal impinging on a wind turbine that is scattered by its blades onto a nearby receiver. Equations from references are modified for the calculation of experimental scatter ratios (from measured signals containing interference) and idealized scatter ratios (from rotor characteristics and relative locations of the transmitter, the turbine, and the receiver). Experimental and idealized scatter ratios are then calculated and compared for 75 cases from the literature, in which TVI measurements were made around a variety of wind turbines. An empirical equation is then defined for estimating the probability that an actual scatter ratio will differ from an idealized ratio by a given amount. Finally a sample calculation of the size of a potential TV interference zone around a hypothetical wind power station is presented.

Spera, David A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Biogenic nonmethane hydrocarbon emissions estimated from tethered balloon observations

A new technique for estimating surface fluxes of trace gases, the mixed-layer gradient technique, is used to calculate isoprene and terpene emissions from forests. The technique is applied to tethered balloon measurements made over the Amazon forest and a pine-oak forest in Alabama at altitudes up to 300 m. The observations were made during the dry season Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment (ABLE 2A) and the Rural Oxidants in the Southern Environment 1990 experiment (ROSE I). Results from large eddy simulations of scalar transport in the clear convective boundary layer are used to infer fluxes from the balloon profiles. Profiles from the Amazon give a mean daytime emission of 3630 +/- 1400 micrograms isoprene sq m/h, where the uncertainty represents the standard deviation of the mean of eight flux estimates. Twenty profiles from Alabama give emissions of 4470 +/- 3300 micrograms isoprene sq m/h, 1740 +/- 1060 micrograms alpha-pinene sq m/h, and 790 +/- 560 micrograms beta-pinene sq m/h, respectively. These results are in agreement with emissions derived from chemical budgets. The emissions may be overestimated because of uncertainty about how to incorporate the effects of the canopy on the mixed-layer gradients. The large variability in these emission estimates is probably due to the relatively short sampling times of the balloon profiles, though spatially heterogeneous emissions may also play a role. Fluxes derived using this technique are representative of an upwind footprint of several kilometers and are independent of hydrocarbon oxidation rate and mean advection.

Davis, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

KRESKA: A compression system for small and very large images

An effective lossless compression system for grayscale images is presented using finite context variable order Markov models. A new method to accurately estimate the probability of the escape symbol is proposed. The choice of the best model order and rules for selecting context pixels are discussed. Two context precision and two symbol precision techniques to handle noisy image data with Markov models are introduced. Results indicate that finite context variable order Markov models lead to effective lossless compression systems for small and very large images. The system achieves higher compression ratios than some of the better known image compression techniques such as lossless JPEG, JBIG, or FELICS.

Ohnesorge, Krystyna W.↗