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At least 253 records · Page 14

Collisions of small Spacewatch asteroids with the Earth

The discovery, with the Spacewatch Telescope, of 8 Earth-approaching objects smaller than 100 m in diameter has been reported. I have calculated the probability and velocity of collision with Earth for each of these objects. Using a code we have successfully employed to model the Tunguska and Revelstoke atmospheric explosions, I have simulated the entry of these objects into Earth's atmosphere, assuming iron, stony, carbonaceous, and cometary compositions. The smallest of these objects, with tens to hundreds of kilotons of kinetic energy, pose a substantial threat at the surface only if they are iron objects. An object is taken to 'pose a substantial threat' if it either craters the ground, or explodes in the atmosphere with sufficient energy at low enough altitude to create an overpressure at the surface capable of felling trees or destroying buildings. Larger objects, with energies greater than about a megaton, devastate the surface regardless of whether they are of iron, stony, or carbonaceous composition. Iron objects crater the ground, whereas stony and carbonaceous objects explode in the atmosphere low enough to fell trees and damage buildings over thousands of square kilometers. Spacewatch objects, if presumed to be of carbonaceous composition, are as dangerous as their stony counterparts, as the former objects' lower yield strengths (and hence, higher explosion altitudes) are roughly compensated by their larger masses (as derived from their lower albedos for a given observed magnitude). Although comets are intrinsically less dangerous than asteroids, the 90 m diameter Spacewatch objects would devastate hundreds of square kilometers at the surface, even if cometary.

Chyba, C. F.↗

Orientational invariance of the rotational transition probability in the sudden approximation

Semiclassical collisions of an atom with a rigid-rotor molecule are examined in the sudden approximation. The rotational transition probability is shown to be invariant with respect to the choice of orientation for the molecular coordinate system; this fact contradicts recently reported results of a computer analysis. The present analysis may lead to an improved interpretation of recent molecular beam measurements.

Stallcop, J. R.↗

Models for direct Monte Carlo simulation of coupled vibration-dissociation

A new model for reactive collisions is developed within the framework of a particle method, which simulates coupled vibration-dissociation (CVD) behavior in high-temperature gases. The fundamental principles of particle simulation methods are introduced with particular attention given to the probability functions employed to select thermal and reactive collisions. Reaction probability functions are derived which favor vibrationally excited molecules as reaction candidates. The new models derived here are used to simulate CVD behavior during thermochemical relaxation of constant-volume O2 reservoirs, as well as the dissociation incubation behavior of postshock N2 flows for comparisons with previous models and experimental data.

Haas, Brian L.↗

On the possibility of negative activation energies in bimolecular reactions

The temperature dependence of the rate constants for model reacting systems was studied to understand some recent experimental measurements which imply the existence of negative activation energies. A collision theory model and classical trajectory calculations are used to demonstrate that the reaction probability can vary inversely with collision energy for bimolecular reactions occurring on attractive potential energy surfaces. However, this is not a sufficient condition to ensure that the rate constant has a negative temperature dependence. On the basis of these calculations, it seems unlikely that a true bimolecular reaction between neutral molecules will have a negative activation energy.

Jaffe, R. L.↗

Cometary impacts with the sun - Physical and dynamical considerations

Michels et al. (1982) observed the apparent impacting of the sun by a comet, and Sekanina (1982) showed that the comet, 1979XI, was probably a member of the Kreutz group of sun-grazing comets, although its perihelion of 0.35 solar radii was much smaller than the 1.2-1.9 solar radii common for this comet class. The perihelion change cannot be explained by planetary, stellar, or nongravitational perturbations. The most plausible explanation is collision with another body, probably a comet, at large heliocentric distance. The probability of such an event is, however, extremely small. The sublimation of the comet's nucleus before impact is discussed, and it is suggested that its ultimate destruction probably resulted from the shock of entry into the denser regions of the solar atmosphere, just above the photosphere.

Weissman, P. R.↗

Meteoroid capture into earth orbit by atmospheric drag

A probabilistic analysis, based on orbital mechanics, is performed to evaluate the chances of meteoroids entering into earth orbit and the potential population of such objects. The problem is addressed in terms of meteoroids on earth collision courses, slowed by atmosphere entry/exit, entering elliptical orbits with apogees above the atmosphere. The overall capture probability is derived by integrating the capture fraction dependence on velocity and size over the probability frequency distribution of the collision courses. Account is taken of eventual orbit decay, lunar infall and ejection after encounters with the moon. The results indicate that the probability that a natural 10-100 m diam object has achieved earth orbit is negligibly small.

Friedlander, A. L.↗

Excitation rate coefficients and line ratios for the optical and ultraviolet transitions in S II

New calculations are reported for electron excitation collision strengths, rate coefficients, transition probabilities, and line ratios for the astrophysically important optical and UV lines in S II. The collision strengths are calculated in the close coupling approximation using the R-matrix method. The present calculations are more extensive than previous ones, including all transitions among the 12 lowest LS terms and the corresponding 28 fine-structure levels in the collisional-radiative model for S II. While the present rate coefficients for electron impact excitation are within 10-30 percent of the previous values for the low-lying optical transitions employed as density diagnostics of H II regions and nebulae, the excitation rates for the UV transitions 4S super 0 sub 3/2 - 4Psub 1/2,3/2,5/2 differ significantly from earlier calculations, by up to factor of 2. We describe temperature and density sensitive flux ratios for a number of UV lines. The present UV results are likely to be of interest in a more accurate interpretation of S II emission from the Io plasma torus in the magnetosphere of Jupiter, as well as other UV sources observed from the IUE, ASTRO 1, and the HST.

Cai, Wei↗

Collisional evolution of asteroids - Populations, rotations, and velocities

The collisional evolution of various initial populations of asteroids is simulated numerically and compared with the present asteroid size-frequency distribution to find those populations which collisionally relax to the present belt. Both orbital and size distributions are treated, as well as the simultaneous evolution of two collisionally interacting populations with different physical properties. If the initial belt distribution was a power law, the initial belt population at the time when the present high-collision speed was established was probably only modestly larger than the present population. However, other distributions allow a more massive early belt. The rotational evolution due to collisions of asteroids with power-law distributions is also examined and compared with observations, leading to conclusions generally in agreement with those of size evolution. The high-collision speed in the present belt is likely due to Jupiter. Gravitational stirring by massive Jupiter-scattered planetesimals or secular resonances sweeping through the belt are the most probable mechanisms.

Davis, D. R.↗

Variance reduction in Monte Carlo analysis of rarefied gas diffusion

The present analysis uses the Monte Carlo method to solve the problem of rarefied diffusion between parallel walls. The diffusing molecules are evaporated or emitted from one of two parallel walls and diffused through another molecular species. The analysis treats the diffusing molecule as undergoing a Markov random walk and the local macroscopic properties are found as the expected value of the random variable, the random walk payoff. By biasing the transition probabilities and changing the collision payoffs the expected Markov walk payoff is retained but its variance is reduced so that the M. C. result has a much smaller error.

Perlmutter, M.↗

Variance reduction in Monte Carlo analysis of rarefied gas diffusion.

The problem of rarefied diffusion between parallel walls is solved using the Monte Carlo method. The diffusing molecules are evaporated or emitted from one of the two parallel walls and diffuse through another molecular species. The Monte Carlo analysis treats the diffusing molecule as undergoing a Markov random walk, and the local macroscopic properties are found as the expected value of the random variable, the random walk payoff. By biasing the transition probabilities and changing the collision payoffs, the expected Markov walk payoff is retained but its variance is reduced so that the Monte Carlo result has a much smaller error.

Perlmutter, M.↗

X-ray variability in V444 Cygni-Evidence for colliding winds

Phase-resolved ROSAT observations of the soft X-ray flux from V444 Cygni confirm the orbital dependence of the flux suggested by analysis of imaging proportional counter (IPC) observations. The X-ray behavior suggests that a region of X-ray emitting gas exists between the 2 stars, probably produced by a collision between the WR and O star winds.

Corcoran, M. F.↗

Experimental and analytical investigation of a modified ring cusp NSTAR engine

A series of experimental measurements on a modified laboratory NSTAR engine were used to validate a zero dimensional analytical discharge performance model of a ring cusp ion thruster. The model predicts the discharge performance of a ring cusp NSTAR thruster as a function the magnetic field configuration, thruster geometry, and throttle level. Analytical formalisms for electron and ion confinement are used to predict the ionization efficiency for a given thruster design. Explicit determination of discharge loss and volume averaged plasma parameters are also obtained. The model was used to predict the performance of the nominal and modified three and four ring cusp 30-cm ion thruster configurations operating at the full power (2.3 kW) NSTAR throttle level. Experimental measurements of the modified engine configuration discharge loss compare well with the predicted value for propellant utilizations from 80 to 95%. The theory, as validated by experiment, indicates that increasing the magnetic strength of the minimum closed reduces maxwellian electron diffusion and electrostatically confines the ion population and subsequent loss to the anode wall. The theory also indicates that increasing the cusp strength and minimizing the cusp area improves primary electron confinement increasing the probability of an ionization collision prior to loss at the cusp.

cathodes↗

Hydrocarbons on Saturns Satellites: Relationship to Interstellar Dust and the Solar Nebula

To understand the origin and evolution of our Solar System, and the basic components that led to life on Earth, we study interstellar and planetary spectroscopic signatures. The possible relationship of organic material detected in carbonaceous meteorites, interplanetary dust particles (IDPs), comets and the interstellar medium have been the source of speculation over the years as the composition and processes that governed the early solar nebula have been explored to understand the extent to which primitive material survived or became processed. The Cassini VIMS has provided new data relevant to this problem. Three of Saturn's satellites, Phoebe, Iapetus, and Hyperion, are found to have aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons on their surfaces. The aromatic hydrocarbon signature (C-H stretching mode at 3.28 micrometers) is proportionally significantly stronger (relative to the aliphatic bands) than that seen in other Solar System bodies (e.g., comets) and materials (Stardust samples, IDPs, meteorites) and the distinctive sub-features of the 3.4 micrometer aliphatic band (CH2 and CH3 groups) are reminiscent of those widely detected throughout the diffuse ISM. Phoebe may be a captured object that originated in the region beyond the present orbit of Neptune, where the solar nebula contained a large fraction of original interstellar ice and dust that was less processed than material closer to the Sun. Debris from Phoebe now resident on Iapetus and Hyperion, as well as o Phoebe itself, thus presents a unique blend of hydrocarbons, amenable to comparisons with interstellar hydrocarbons and other Solar System materials. The dust ring surrounding Saturn, in which Phoebe is embedded, probably originated from a collision with Phoebe. Dust ring particles are the likely source of the organic-bearing materials, and perhaps the recently identified small particles of Fe detected on Saturn's satellites. Lab measurements of the absolute band strengths of representative aliphatic and aromatic molecules, together with measurements from the VIMS data, allow us to calculate the number of C atoms to find the relative abundances of C atoms in the two kinds of organic molecules. The strength of the prominent aromatic C-H stretch band relative to the aliphatic band complex in Phoebe and Iapetus indicates that the relative abundance of aromatic to aliphatic carbon is very large (greater than 200). In contract, the aromatic band is nearly imperceptible in spectra of interplanetary dust particles (IDP), returned samples from comet 91P/Wild 2, insoluable carbonaceous material in most meteorites, and the diffuse interstellar dust (DISM) (although aromatics are known in all these materials-here we consider only the spectroscopic signature)

Cruikshank, D. P.↗

CA Risk Assessment Approaches

Current single-Pc approach work well when subtended by appropriate hypothesis-testing framework. Reframing construct in terms of miss distance distribution would confer certain advantages such as reducing to same import as Pc, but still convey some additional information. Methods to incorporate known uncertainties in covariances and HBR should be pursued that can also be framed in terms of miss distance distribution. We present Plausibilistic II and Possibilistic constructs, to determine their adequacy and viable recommendation.

Conjunction↗