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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14

Model to inform the expansion of hydrogen distribution infrastructure

A growing hydrogen economy requires new hydrogen distribution infrastructure to link geographically distributed hubs of supply and demand. The Hydrogen Optimization with Deployment of Infrastructure (HOwDI) Model helps meet this requirement. The model is a spatially resolved optimization framework that determines location-specific hydrogen production and distribution infrastructure to cost-optimally meet a specified location-based demand. While these results are useful in understanding hydrogen infrastructure development, there is uncertainty in some costs that the model uses for inputs. Thus, the project team took the modeling effort a step further and developed a Monte Carlo methodology to help manage uncertainties. Seven scenarios were run using existing infrastructure and new demand in Texas exploring different policy and tax approaches. The inclusion of tax credits increased the percentage of runs that could deliver hydrogen at <$\$4$ /kg from 31% to 77% and decreased the average dispensed cost from $\$4.35$ /kg to $\$3.55$ /kg. However, even with tax credits there are still some runs where unabated SMR is deployed to meet new demand as the low-carbon production options are not competitive. Every scenario, except for the zero-carbon scenario (without tax credits), resulted in at least 20% of the runs meeting the $\$4$ /kg dispensed fuel cost target. This indicates that multiple pathways exist to deliver $\$4$ /kg hydrogen.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for computationally efficient stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch under wind and solar uncertainty

Stochastic unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) are imperative in dealing with uncertainty in renewable forecast for power system operation and planning such that the overall expected production cost is minimized over the planning horizon. However, accurate calculation of the expected production cost requires assessment of a very large number of different scenarios of uncertain renewable resources, such as solar and wind, which is practically infeasible to simulate in real time. This article proposes a hybrid datadriven and physics-based model-predictive paradigm to efficiently solve for stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch considering uncertainty in wind and solar power forecasts. Here, the novelty of the approach lies in decoupling the production cost estimation from the unit commitment and economic dispatch optimization problems under uncertainty without compromising on the fidelity of the solutions. A data-driven machine learning model is first developed to predict the mean optimal production cost. A physics-based inverse problem is then solved to get the stochastic UC and ED profiles from the expected cost. The presented approach considers, for the first time, solar uncertainty in UC/ED determination and enables efficient and accurate propagation of wind and solar uncertainty to estimate the statistics of the production cost. The effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated systematically on a stylized RTS-GMLC single-node system. The overall framework predicts the expected cost 62.5% more accurately than the existing state-of-the-art, on unforeseen days during the entire year, and yields, for the first time, the associated physically consistent UC and ED profiles. The solutions are also shown to be flexible in providing adequate daily reserves to address any statistical deviations from probabilistic power forecasts. The computational time associated with the presented method is only about 10 s compared to over 24 h needed for a conventional stochastic UC/ED determination under uncertainty on an Intel Core i9 processor with 32 GB of RAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

2022 System Optimization Awardee: XFlow Energy Company

Vertical-axis wind turbines offer several cost-saving advantages over traditional horizontal-axis wind turbines, including lower blade manufacturing costs and a simpler mechanical design. Unfortunately, until now, vertical configurations have not been able to match the power production and durability of more conventional horizontal-axis models. XFlow Energy Company (XFlow Energy) plans to improve the design and reduce the production costs of its 25-kilowatt (kW) vertical-axis wind turbine, delivering a levelized cost of energy that is competitive with that of U.S. retail electricity generated by coal-fired power plants. XFlow Energy's efficient turbine also is designed to maximize power production and longevity. Two previous Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) awards funded XFlow Energy's development of a 10-meter vertical-axis turbine prototype.

CIP↗

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hybrid-Energy-Powered Electrochemical Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Model: Plant Operation, Cost, and Profitability

Electrochemical ocean alkalinity enhancement is a form of marine carbon dioxide removal, a rapidly growing industry that is powered by efficient onshore or offshore energy sources. As more and larger deployments are being planned, it is important to consider how variable energy sources like tidal energy can impact plant performance and costs. An open-source Python-based generalizable model for electrodialysis-based ocean alkalinity enhancement has been developed that can capture key system-level insights of the electrochemistry, ocean chemistry, acid disposal, and co-product creation of these plants under various conditions. The model additionally accounts for hybrid energy system performance profiles and costs via the National Laboratory of the Rockies’ H2Integrate tool. The model was used to analyze an example theoretical plant deployment in North Admiralty Inlet, including how the plant is impacted by the available energy sources in the region and the scale at which plant costs are covered by the co-products it generates, such as recycled concrete aggregates, without requiring carbon credits. The results show that the example plant could be profitable without carbon credits at commercial scales of 100,000 to 1 million tons of carbon dioxide removal per year, so long as it uses low-cost electricity sources and either sells acid or recovers recycled concrete aggregates with about 1 molar acid concentrations, though more research is needed to confirm these results.

hybrid energy↗

Analysis and Planning Framework for Nuclear Plant Transformation

Commercial nuclear power in the United States has been an unqualified success by any measure, providing low cost, carbon-free, and safe baseload electricity for decades. The industry today is at the peak of its historical performance in terms of generation output, reliable operations, and demonstrated nuclear safety. However, it is no longer among the lowest-cost electric generation sources with the emergence of subsidized renewables and shale gas generation. The business model that has served the operating nuclear fleet so well over its life is now a drag on cost performance due to its reliance on a large highly skilled labor force. In contrast, digital technology and innovation are enabling dramatic efficiencies in energy production, resulting in fierce competition for a commodity such as electricity. The nuclear power industry has responded to this challenge with many initiatives to improve efficiency and modernize plant equipment, especially where reliability and obsolescence issues are pressing. However, it would be a missed opportunity to merely modernize the plant components and the work processes of an outdated business model that was formulated to manage the technology of the 1960s. Rather, the greater opportunity is to transform that business model to one that fully exploits the capabilities of modern digital technology, resulting in substantially lower production costs and sustainable market viability. One successful example of such transformation is the concept of Integrated Operations, which was introduced into the North Sea oil and gas industry a couple of decades ago when the profitability of operating these fields was severely threatened by low world petroleum prices and the high overhead of operating the offshore oil and gas platforms. This effort resulted in significant changes to how these oil fields were operated and allowed the industry to continue profitable operation of these platforms. This example has some remarkable parallels to the U.S. commercial nuclear industry as described in the next section. This report provides an analysis and planning framework for such a nuclear plant operating model transformation based on the transferable learnings from the North Sea transformation. This framework is termed Integrated Operations for Nuclear or ION. This report describes the key principles and methods of Integrated Operations and how they are being applied in a collaboration between the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program and Xcel Energy in an initiative to transform its operating model for performance improvement and long-term sustainability. It describes a method to bring the operating costs of a nuclear fleet in line with market-based pricing, transforming work functions to reduce cost with technology innovations. This initiative will continue over the next several years in the detailed development of transformative concepts for nuclear plants, which will be published as follow-up to this initial report on Integrated Operations for Nuclear.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Spatial Optimization of Multiscale Biorefinery Deployment for a Diversified Bioeconomy in the United States

Strategic biorefinery siting is critical for a diversified bioeconomy, yet industry, policy, and research often focus on either large-scale biofuel plants or smaller-scale specialty bioproduct facilities, with limited coordination across scales. We address this gap by modeling biorefinery deployment spanning a 28-fold difference in capacity. We developed an open-source, spatially explicit framework integrating techno-economic analysis with logistics and refinery cost surrogate models to evaluate multiscale miscanthus-derived biorefineries across the rainfed U.S. for the production of ethanol, succinic acid, lactic acid, potassium sorbate, and acrylic acid. Overall costs change little as feedstock density increases, while transport distances decrease by ∼30 to 67% (∼100 km) and siting flexibility improves. Specifically, a 5-fold feedstock density increase (2% to 10% of suitable land) reduces minimum selling prices by <10% (e.g., 0.27 USD·gal –1 for ethanol). This limited economic sensitivity suggests dense planting is not required for competitive deployment, particularly for smaller-scale facilities. Representing collection areas as irregular rather than circular expands the feasible space under low-density scenarios. While large-scale refineries anchor regional supply chains, smaller facilities retain spatial flexibility even when large refineries are established. These findings highlight the importance of spatial representation and multiscale coordination for robust, regionally tailored biomanufacturing networks to advance renewable carbon integration without extensive land conversion.

biorefinery siting↗

Comparison of modular analytical wake models to the Lillgrund wind plant

Efficient and accurate wake models are required for wind plant performance modeling and the suite of engineering processes that support wind plant layout, control, and monitoring. Although many analytical and engineering wake models with low computational costs have been proposed, their ability to represent the power production of large wind plants in a wide range of atmospheric conditions is not completely understood. The following validation study reviews the underlying theory for analytical wake models, outlines quality control procedures for observational data, and compares model results with observational data from the Lillgrund Wind Plant. Lillgrund makes a valuable case study for wake modeling because of its regular arrangement and the relatively close spacing of constituent wind turbines, which lead to regular and significant wake interactions within the wind plant and the development of deep array flow conditions. Formulations for the velocity deficit, wake-added turbulence, and wake superposition methods are considered in a modular sense, yielding many possible configurations to represent wind turbine wakes, of which seven are examined in detail. Velocity deficit models that account for flow conditions in the near wake are better able to reproduce power production for wind turbines in the transitional region of the wind plant, where wind turbines experience as many as five wakes from upstream turbines. Finally, in the deep array, where power production reaches asymptotic values and wake statistics become quasi-periodic, wake superposition schemes become the largest driver in error reduction; using the linear or maximum wake superposition methods can reduce the relative root mean square error by as much as 40% in the deep array.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning

The Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) project has developed a generic and extensible component-based system modeling framework to study complex geothermal fields using a data-driven approach. Through building a digital twin of a geothermal steam field with the GOOML modeling framework, operators can analyze historical and forecasted power production, explore possible steam field configurations, and optimize real world operations, all in a cost-effective digital environment. The GOOML modeling software is based on a historical data-assimilation framework that uses first-principal thermodynamics to model steam field components using historical data, and a forecast framework that uses machine-learning-driven models of steam field components to predict future operations. This modeling framework creates countless new opportunities for digital exploration of steam field design and operations. To date, digital twins have been developed for several steam fields in New Zealand and the United States. These digital twins have been validated by comparing hindcast predictions against historical production data. Field design and operations have been explored using genetic optimization and reinforcement learning. Initial results show compelling and often surprising opportunities for improved design and operation of fields with 2 to 5 percent improvements in annual energy production. GOOML is driving a step-change in geothermal operations by applying state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and a first-of-its-kind intelligent geothermal systems model.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

Enabling energy‐efficient manufacturing of pharmaceutical solid oral dosage forms via integrated techno‐economic analysis and advanced process modeling

Abstract The global pharmaceutical industry is a trillion‐dollar market. However, the pharmaceutical sector often lags in manufacturing innovation and automation which limits its potential to maximize energy efficiency. The integration of techno‐economic analysis (TEA) with advanced process models as part of an overarching smart manufacturing platform, can help industries create business models, which can be adapted for manufacturing to reduce energy consumption and operating costs while ensuring product quality which can further enable a more sustainable process operation. In this study, a rational design of experiment on three unit‐operations (wet granulation, drying, and milling) was performed on a batch (case 1) and continuous (case 2) pharmaceutical process to obtain experimental data. Process models for predicting product quality and energy efficiency of each of the three‐unit operations were developed. The experimental data were used to validate the models and good agreement was observed. The energy consumption of each unit operation was calculated using statistical models relating the power consumption and the process parameters. The developed process models and energy models were further integrated into a TEA framework, which quantified the energy and monetary cost of manufacturing for both batch and continuous manufacturing cases. With this integrated framework, energy costs savings of ~33% was obtained in the continuous manufacturing process (case 2) over the batch process (case 1).

Sampat, Chaitanya↗

Thermal and Well Flow Performance of Closed-Loop Geothermal in the Wattenberg Area: Preprint

Closed-loop geothermal systems provide an alternative to resource-constrained hydrothermal systems and stimulation-intensive enhanced geothermal systems. In this work, we apply the slender-body theory (SBT) model, to simulate the well flow and heat transfer performance of U-loop well designs drilled in the Wattenberg area of the Denver-Julesburg Basin. Three U-loop well patterns are investigated including a single, double, and multi-lateral design. The subsurface within area is characterized by deep, hot (> 200degreesC) igneous/metamorphic basement rock underlying multiple sedimentary formations. The lateral section(s) of the U-loop lies within a target depth of 6 km where temperatures are estimated to approach 300degreesC. As a base case, conduction-only heat transfer is investigated through simulations with the SBT model within U-loops with open-hole laterals that exchange heat directly with the hot dry rock using water as a working fluid. The utilization of supercritical CO2 as a heat transfer fluid is also considered. For each scenario, the system performance in terms of annual heat production and temperature profile over a 20-year project lifetime are assessed. Also, the levelized costs of heat and electricity (LCOH and LCOE) are determined using a top-down technoeconomic analysis model. The results show that the performance and cost optimized U-loop design is one having an injection-production well spacing of 1,000 meters with ten 50-meter-spaced laterals that traverse a subsurface system with a temperature gradient of 60degreesC/km. By injecting 20 degreesC-water at a rate of 60 kg/s through this loop, an average heat production of 19 MWth can be achieved, resulting in an LCOE and LCOH of $136/MWh and $1.53/GJ, respectively, over a 20-year project life.

closed-loop geothermal↗

Tradeoffs and Synergies in Tropical Forest Root Traits and Dynamics for Nutrient and Water Acquisition: Field and Modeling Advances

Vegetation processes are fundamentally limited by nutrient and water availability, the uptake of which is mediated by plant roots in terrestrial ecosystems. While tropical forests play a central role in global water, carbon, and nutrient cycling, we know very little about tradeoffs and synergies in root traits that respond to resource scarcity. Tropical trees face a unique set of resource limitations, with rock-derived nutrients and moisture seasonality governing many ecosystem functions, and nutrient versus water availability often separated spatially and temporally. Root traits that characterize biomass, depth distributions, production and phenology, morphology, physiology, chemistry, and symbiotic relationships can be predictive of plants’ capacities to access and acquire nutrients and water, with links to aboveground processes like transpiration, wood productivity, and leaf phenology. In this review, we identify an emerging trend in the literature that tropical fine root biomass and production in surface soils are greatest in infertile or sufficiently moist soils. We also identify interesting paradoxes in tropical forest root responses to changing resources that merit further exploration. For example, specific root length, which typically increases under resource scarcity to expand the volume of soil explored, instead can increase with greater base cation availability, both across natural tropical forest gradients and in fertilization experiments. Also, nutrient additions, rather than reducing mycorrhizal colonization of fine roots as might be expected, increased colonization rates under scenarios of water scarcity in some forests. Efforts to include fine root traits and functions in vegetation models have grown more sophisticated over time, yet there is a disconnect between the emphasis in models characterizing nutrient and water uptake rates and carbon costs versus the emphasis in field experiments on measuring root biomass, production, and morphology in response to changes in resource availability. Closer integration of field and modeling efforts could connect mechanistic investigation of fine-root dynamics to ecosystem-scale understanding of nutrient and water cycling, allowing us to better predict tropical forest-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Designing a GIS-based supply chain for producing carinata-based sustainable aviation fuel in Georgia, USA

Carinata is a potential crop for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in the southern USA. However, as a novel crop, the cost-effectiveness and environmental feasibility of carinata feedstock are unknown, and there are questions about the optimal supply chain configuration for carinata-based SAF production. This study aims to design a supply chain model for carinata-based SAF production by optimizing the location of farms and facilities (e.g. storage units, crushing mills, biorefineries) for a minimum transportation cost under a set of supply and demand conditions. An integrated mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model was combined with geographical information system (GIS) analysis to design a spatially explicit supply chain configuration. The GIS-based network analysis considered all of the counties in Georgia to set the candidate locations of carinata farms and facilities, and determined minimum cost and emission routes between those counties and the airport using existing transportation networks and modes (e.g. road, rail and pipeline). The MILP model determined the final selection of the farms and the number of facilities and their locations over those minimum-cost routes. With this supply chain configuration, the minimum price of SAF was $\$$0.92 L –1 , which is $\$$0.44 higher than conventional aviation fuel (CAF). The associated carbon intensity of SAF was estimated at 940.7 g CO 2 e L –1 , a reduction of 66% relative to the carbon intensity of equivalent CAF. The study found that a carbon tax (or subsidy) of $\$$230.48 t CO 2 e –1 would be needed to overcome the cost differential with CAF and promote carinata-based SAF in Georgia.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Hydrogen Production Cost from Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to estimate the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) production using Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide (PSO) electrolysis. The analysis evaluates Current (2025) and Future (2035) technology cases at centralized plant scales of 50 and 500 metric tonnes per day (MTD), assuming electricity, water, and air as the only system inputs. Untaxed, unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is projected to range from 2020 $\$$1.81 to $\$$2.47/kg H 2 at an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and 97% capacity factor under Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) deployment assumptions. Total installed capital cost was developed using bottom-up Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) stack cost modeling and detailed balance-of-plant estimates, including mechanical and electrical subsystems, installation, site preparation, engineering, and contingency. Stack performance assumptions include thermoneutral operation, degradation over time, and periodic replacement. LCOH was calculated using the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) discounted cash flow model in constant 2020 dollars. Results indicate PSO electrolysis has potential for competitive hydrogen production costs under low-cost electricity and mature manufacturing conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Plant biomass fermentation by the extreme thermophile Caldicellulosiruptor bescii for co-production of green hydrogen and acetone: Technoeconomic analysis

A variety of chemical and biological processes have been proposed for conversion of sustainable low-cost feedstocks into industrial products. Here, a biorefinery concept is formulated, modeled, and analyzed in which a naturally (hemi)cellulolytic and extremely thermophilic bacterium, Caldicellulosiruptor bescii, is metabolically engineered to convert the carbohydrate content of lignocellulosic biomasses (i.e., soybean hulls, transgenic poplar) into green hydrogen and acetone. Experimental validation of C. bescii fermentative performance demonstrated 82% carbohydrate solubilization of soybean hulls and 55% for transgenic poplar. A detailed technical design, including equipment specifications, provides the basis for an economic analysis that establishes metabolic engineering targets. This robust industrial process leveraging metabolically engineered C. bescii yields 206 kg acetone and 25 kg H 2 per metric ton of soybean hull, or 174 kg acetone and 21 kg H 2 per metric ton transgenic poplar. Beyond this specific case, the model demonstrates industrial feasibility and economic advantages of thermophilic fermentation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A statistical model for the product energy distribution in reactions leading to prompt dissociation

Direct dynamics calculations have been performed for three reactions: C 3 H 8 + H → i-C 3 H 7 + H 2 , C 3 H 8 + H → n-C 3 H 7 + H 2 , and C 2 H 3 + O 2 → HCO + CH 2 O. The fraction of the population for the radical products that promptly dissociates is computed. Here the results for C 3 H 8 + H are qualitatively similar to previous results for C 3 H 8 + OH, but the new results exhibit a slightly higher branching fraction for prompt dissociation products, owing to the fact that a greater fraction of the internal energy in the transition state ends up in the radical. For C 2 H 3 + O 2 → HCO + CH 2 O, the fraction of HCO that promptly dissociates is in excess of 99%. Consequently, the main product for C 2 H 3 + O 2 at lower temperatures should be written as H + CO + CH 2 O and not HCO + CH 2 O. These results are then compared with four previous systems: CH 2 O + H → HCO + H 2 , CH 2 O + OH → HCO + H 2 O, C 3 H 8 + OH → i-C 3 H 7 + H 2 O, and C 3 H 8 + OH → n-C 3 H 7 + H 2 O. Based upon these seven system, several statistical models are presented. The goal of these statistical models is to predict the fraction of the transition state energy that ends up in the rovibrationally excited radical. On average, these statistical models provide an excellent prediction of product energy distribution. Consequently, these models can be used instead of costly trajectory simulations for predicting prompt radical dissociation for larger species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗