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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

SAM Code Enhancements for Fission Product Tracking of Noble Gases and Metals in MSRs

This report documents fiscal year 2026 enhancements to the System Analysis Module (SAM) for modeling fission product transport in liquid-fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs). The work advances three principal areas: noble gas transport, noble metal deposition, and user interface improvements. The noble gas transport capability integrates drift-flux gas transport, Henry’s law two-film interphase mass transfer with pressure-based nucleation suppression, Knudsen-regime pore diffusion into porous graphite with a conjugate salt-graphite interface constraint, built-in material properties, five Sherwood-number mass transfer correlations including three derived from high-fidelity NekRS simulations, and xenon-135 reactivity feedback through SAM’s point-kinetics model. This work also presents a comprehensive verification test suite, including new analytically verified cases for pressure-dependent onset of interphase gas transfer in a stagnant vertical pipe, a postulated FLiBe-graphite Xe extraction permeator, a gravity riser with a fission-product source, and a descending pipe with gas redissolution driven by hydrostatic pressure. A machine learning framework for bubble rise velocity prediction in molten salt systems is developed and benchmarked on molten-salt and diverse aqueous bubble datasets. The best-performing fine-tuned transfer-learning networks achieve an 82% reduction in RMSE relative to the Clift correlation, and is implemented directly in SAM. The noble metal transport capability is developed, including a liquid-wall deposition model and a gas-surface flotation mechanism that transfers insoluble particles entrained by sparging gas to wetted structures. Verification tests and demonstration cases cover the surface deposition, flotation efflux, and flotation shedding. Finally, a new [SpeciesTransport] input structure replaces positional global vectors with selfcontained, order-independent, named species blocks, simplifies the specification of multiphase species and decay chains, and remains fully compatible with existing SAM input files. Together, these developments improve the physical fidelity, verification basis, and usability of SAM for system-level analyses of fissionproduct behavior in MSRs.

Mui, Travis (ORCID:0000000303736470)↗
DOE OSTI2023

A framework for calibrating and validating an air loop dynamic model in an HVAC system in Modelica

The use of Modelica for simulating the dynamic behaviors of building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems has gained popularity. Calibration of a model that represents large and complex HVAC systems in Modelica involves the determination of hundreds of parameters using real-world operation data. Considering the coupling effects among various components, such a calibration process is complex and time-consuming. In this study, we propose a systematic framework to efficiently calibrate and validate a complex HVAC system model in Modelica. The framework includes strategies to solicit real-system operation data and to decouple the model. The goal of this calibration framework is to accurately and efficiently determine a set of Modelica model parameters that provide a good match between the simulated and real system behaviors. To demonstrate the validity of the framework, it was applied to calibrate the parameters of a Modelica model of the air loop subsystem of a real AHU-VAV system. The results show that the calibrated model can generate simulated results, including VAV air flow rate, outdoor air flow, and fan power consumption, that match well with the operational data of the real system. The coefficient of the variation of the root mean square error, CV(RMSE), of the air flow rate and power consumption are 14.6 % and 11.5 %, respectively. The results prove that the framework is valid and effective, and it can be used to calibrate other complex HVAC system Modelica models in the future.

Li, Yicheng↗
DOE OSTI2021

SLOPE daily and 250 m gross primary productivity (GPP) for the CONUS, 2000-2019, Carbon Monitoring System (CMS)

The SatelLite Only Photosynthesis Estimation (SLOPE) GPP product is a daily, 250 m GPP dataset covering the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2000 to present with 1 day latency. Gross primary productivity (GPP) quantifies the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) fixed by plants through photosynthesis. Although as a key quantity of terrestrial ecosystems, there is a lack of high-spatial-and-temporal-resolution, real-time, and observation-based GPP products. This product has been developed to address this critical gap, leveraging a number of MODIS land and atmosphere products. There are three distinct features of the SLOPE GPP production algorithm. (1) SLOPE couples machine learning models with MODIS atmosphere and land products to accurately estimate PAR. (2) SLOPE couples highly efficient and pragmatic gap-filling and filtering algorithms with surface reflectance acquired by both Terra and Aqua MODIS satellites to derive a soil-adjusted NIRv (SANIRv) dataset. (3) SLOPE couples a temporal pattern recognition approach with a long-term Crop Data Layer (CDL) product to predict dynamic C4 crop fraction. PAR, SANIRv and C4 fraction are used to drive a parsimonious model with only two slope parameters to estimate GPP along with a quantitative uncertainty on a per-pixel and daily basis. The slope GPP product has a R2 = 0.84 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.65 gC m-2 d-1, evaluated against from 50 AmeriFlux eddy covariance sites (332 site-years). Archived data from 2000 to 2019 are publicly available at the NASA's Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC). Data from 2020 are available from the authors upon request. All data are projected in the standard MODIS Land Integerized Sinusoidal tile map projection. Each processing tile is in size of 4800 pixels by 4800 pixels, representing approximately 1200 km by 1200 km land region. In addition to the GPP product, SLOPE PAR, SANIRV, and C4 fraction, along with their uncertainties, are also released.

Jiang, Chongya↗
DOE OSTI2022

Upscaling Methane Flux From Plot Level to Eddy Covariance Tower Domains in Five Alaskan Tundra Ecosystems

Spatial heterogeneity in methane (CH 4 ) flux requires a reliable upscaling approach to reach accurate regional CH 4 budgets in the Arctic tundra. In this study, we combined the CLM-Microbe model with three footprint algorithms to scale up CH 4 flux from a plot level to eddy covariance (EC) tower domains (200 m × 200 m) in the Alaska North Slope, for three sites in Utqiaġvik (US-Beo, US-Bes, and US-Brw), one in Atqasuk (US-Atq) and one in Ivotuk (US-Ivo), for a period of 2013–2015. Three footprint algorithms were the homogenous footprint (HF) that assumes even contribution of all grid cells, the gradient footprint (GF) that assumes gradually declining contribution from center grid cells to edges, and the dynamic footprint (DF) that considers the impacts of wind and heterogeneity of land surface. Simulated annual CH 4 flux was highly consistent with the EC measurements at US-Beo and US-Bes. In contrast, flux was overestimated at US-Brw, US-Atq, and US-Ivo due to the higher simulated CH 4 flux in early growing seasons. The simulated monthly CH 4 flux was consistent with EC measurements but with different accuracies among footprint algorithms. At US-Bes in September 2013, RMSE and NNSE were 0.002 μmol m −2 s −1 and 0.782 using the DF algorithm, but 0.007 μmol m −2 s −1 and 0.758 using HF and 0.007 μmol m −2 s −1 and 0.765 using GF, respectively. DF algorithm performed better than the HF and GF algorithms in capturing the temporal variation in daily CH 4 flux each month, while the model accuracy was similar among the three algorithms due to flat landscapes. Temporal variations in CH 4 flux during 2013–2015 were predominately explained by air temperature (67–74%), followed by precipitation (22–36%). Spatial heterogeneities in vegetation fraction and elevation dominated the spatial variations in CH 4 flux for all five tower domains despite relatively weak differences in simulated CH 4 flux among three footprint algorithms. The CLM-Microbe model can simulate CH 4 flux at both plot and landscape scales at a high temporal resolution, which should be applied to other landscapes. Integrating land surface models with an appropriate algorithm provides a powerful tool for upscaling CH 4 flux in terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Frost prediction using machine learning and deep neural network models

This study describes accurate, computationally efficient models that can be implemented for practical use in predicting frost events for point-scale agricultural applications. Frost damage in agriculture is a costly burden to farmers and global food security alike. Timely prediction of frost events is important to reduce the cost of agricultural frost damage and traditional numerical weather forecasts are often inaccurate at the field-scale in complex terrain. In this paper, we developed machine learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of such frost events near Alcalde, NM at the point-scale. ML algorithms investigated include deep neural network, convolution neural networks, and random forest models at lead-times of 6–48 h. Our results show promising accuracy (6-h prediction RMSE = 1.53–1.72°C) for use in frost and minimum temperature prediction applications. Seasonal differences in model predictions resulted in a slight negative bias during Spring and Summer months and a positive bias in Fall and Winter months. Additionally, we tested the model transferability by continuing training and testing using data from sensors at a nearby farm. We calculated the feature importance of the random forest models and were able to determine which parameters provided the models with the most useful information for predictions. We determined that soil temperature is a key parameter in longer term predictions (>24 h), while other temperature related parameters provide the majority of information for shorter term predictions. The model error compared favorable to previous ML based frost studies and outperformed the physically based High Resolution Rapid Refresh forecasting system making our ML-models attractive for deployment toward real-time monitoring of frost events and damage at commercial farming operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated Cloud Based Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based SWE Prediction

Snow derived water is a critical component of the US water supply. Measurements of the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and associated predictions of peak SWE and snowmelt onset are essential inputs for water management efforts. This paper aims to develop an integrated framework for real-time data ingestion, estimation, prediction and visualization of SWE based on daily snow datasets. In particular, we develop a data-driven approach for estimating and predicting SWE dynamics using the Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM) method. Our approach uses historical datasets (precipitation, air temperature, SWE, and snow thickness) collected at NRCS Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations to train the LSTM network and current year data to predict SWE behavior. The performance of our prediction was compared for different prediction dates and prediction training datasets. Our results suggest that the proposed LSTM network can be an efficient tool for forecasting the SWE timeseries, as well as Peak SWE and snowmelt timing. Results showed that the window size impacts the model performance (where the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.96 to 0.85 and the Rooted Mean Square Error (RMSE) ranged from 0.038 to 0.07) with an optimum number that should be calibrated for different stations and climate conditions. In addition, by implementing the LSTM prediction capability in a cloud based site-monitoring platform, we automate model-data integration. By making the data accessible through a graphical web interface and an underlying API which exposes both training and prediction capabilities. The associated results can be made easily accessible to a broad range of stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hyperspectral Reflectance-Based High Throughput Phenotyping to Assess Water-Use Efficiency in Cotton

Cotton is a pivotal global commodity underscored by its economic value and widespread use. In the face of climate change, breeding resilient cultivars for variable environmental conditions becomes increasingly essential. However, the process of phenotyping, crucial to breeding programs, is often viewed as a bottleneck due to the inefficiency of traditional, low-throughput methods. To address this limitation, this study utilizes hyperspectral remote sensing, a promising tool for assessing crucial crop traits across forty cotton varieties. The results from this study demonstrated the effectiveness of four vegetation indices (VIs) in evaluating these varieties for water-use efficiency (WUE). The prediction accuracy for WUE through VIs such as the simple ratio water index (SRWI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) was higher (up to R2 = 0.66), enabling better detection of phenotypic variations (p < 0.05) among the varieties compared to physiological-related traits (from R2 = 0.21 to R2 = 0.42), with high repeatability and a low RMSE. These VIs also showed high Pearson correlations with WUE (up to r = 0.81) and yield-related traits (up to r = 0.63). We also selected high-performing varieties based on the VIs, WUE, and fiber quality traits. This study demonstrated that the hyperspectral-based proximal sensing approach helps rapidly assess the in-season performance of varieties for imperative traits and aids in precise breeding decisions.

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2020

Remaining Useful Strength (RUS) Prediction of SiCf-SiCm Composite Materials Using Deep Learning and Acoustic Emission

Prognosis techniques for prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) are of crucial importance to the management of complex systems for they can lead to appropriate maintenance interventions and improvements in reliability. While various data-driven methods have been introduced to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery systems or batteries, no research has been reported on the remaining useful strength (RUS) prediction of silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiCf-SiCm) materials with pivotal role in its potential usage as a structural material in nuclear reactors and turbine engines. Knowledge of its degradation process is of the utmost importance to the manufacturers. For this purpose, two approaches based on the machine-learning techniques of random-forest (RF) and convolutional neural network (CNN) are proposed to predict the RUS of SiCf-SiCm using only acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during the material’s stress applying process. Experimental results show that the CNN models achieved better predictive performance than the RF models but the latter with expert-engineered features achieves better prediction for AE signals in the early stage of degradation. Additionally, our results demonstrate that both models can correctly predict the SiCf-SiCm RUS as evaluated by our robust testing method from which the best average root mean square error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient of 3.55 ksi units and 0.85 were obtained.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Skill of Mesoscale Models in Forecasting Springtime Macrophysical Cloud Properties at the Savannah River Site in the Southeastern US

Predicting boundary layer clouds is important for the accurate modeling of pollutant dispersion. Higher resolution mesoscale models would be expected to produce better forecasts of cloud properties that affect dispersion. Using ceilometer observations, we assess the skill of two operational mesoscale models (RAMS and WRF) to forecast cloud base altitude and cloud fraction at the Savannah River Site in the southeastern US during the springtime. Verifications were performed at small spatial and temporal scales necessary for dispersion modeling. Both models were unreliable with a 50% (RAMS) and a 46% (WRF) rate of predicting clouds observed by the ceilometer which led to low cloud fraction predictions. Results indicated that WRF better predicted daytime cloud bases from convection that occurred frequently later in the period and RAMS better predicted nighttime cloud bases. Using root mean squared error (RMSE) to score the forecast periods also highlighted this diurnal dichotomy, with WRF scores better during the day and RAMS scores better at night. Analysis of forecast errors revealed divergent model cloud base biases—WRF low and RAMS high. A hybrid solution which weighs more heavily the RAMS nighttime forecasts and WRF daytime forecasts will likely provide the best prediction of cloud properties for dispersion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Gridded Solar Irradiance Ensemble Prediction System Based on WRF-Solar EPS and the Analog Ensemble

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method, the analog ensemble (AnEn), are used to generate calibrated gridded ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) retrievals, based on geostationary satellites from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) are used for both calibrating and verifying the day-ahead GHI and DNI predictions (GDIP). A 10-member ensemble of WRF-Solar EPS is run in a re-forecast mode to generate day-ahead GDIP for three years. The AnEn is used to calibrate GDIP at each grid point independently using the NSRDB as the “ground truth”. Performance evaluations of deterministic and probabilistic attributes are carried out over the whole CONUS. The results demonstrate that using the AnEn calibrated ensemble forecast from WRF-Solar EPS contributes to improving the overall quality of the GHI predictions with respect to an AnEn calibrated system based only on the deterministic run of WRF-Solar. In fact, the calibrated WRF-Solar EPS’s mean exhibits a lower bias and RMSE than the calibrated deterministic WRF-Solar. Moreover, using the ensemble mean and spread as predictors for the AnEn allows a more effective calibration than using variables only from the deterministic runs. Finally, it has been shown that the recently introduced algorithm of correction for rare events is of paramount importance to obtain the lowest values of GHI from the calibrated ensemble (WRF-Solar EPS AnEn), qualitatively consistent with those observed from the NSRDB.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Refractivity Observations from Radar Phase Measurements: The 22 May 2002 Dryline Case during IHOP Project

The dryline, often associated with the development of severe storms in the Southern Great Plains of the United States of America, is a boundary layer phenomenon that occurs when a warm and moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico meets a hot and dry air mass from the southwest desert area. An accurate knowledge of the water vapor spatio-temporal variability in the lower part of the atmosphere is crucial for a better understanding of the evolution of the dryline. The tropospheric refractivity, directly related to water vapor content, is a proxy for the water vapor content of the troposphere. It has already been demonstrated that the refractivity and the refractivity vertical gradient can be jointly estimated from radar phase measurements. In fact, it has been shown that using kriging interpolation techniques, accurate refractivity maps within the coverage area of the radar can be obtained with high temporal resolution. In this paper, a detailed analysis of the time series of radar-based refractivity maps obtained during a dryline that occurred on the afternoon of 22 May 2002 during the International H 2 O Project is presented. Comparisons between the time series of radar refractivity maps, obtained with the NCAR S-Pol radar, and the refractivity measurements derived from automatic ground-based weather stations and the AERI instrument, placed at different locations within the coverage area of the NCAR S-Pol radar, demonstrate the accuracy of radar refractivity estimates even for highly variable conditions, both in time and space, in the troposphere. Correlation coefficients higher than 0.95 are obtained in all weather station locations. Regarding the RMSE, errors less than 6 N-units are obtained for all cases, being even as low as 2.92 N-units at some locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Crystal Properties and Defects in CdZnTe Radiation Detectors

CdZnTe-based detectors are highly valued because of their high spectral resolution, which is an essential feature for nuclear medical imaging. However, this resolution is compromised when there are substantial defects in the CdZnTe crystals. In this study, we present a learning-based approach to determine the spatially dependent bulk properties and defects in semiconductor detectors. This characterization allows us to mitigate and compensate for the undesired effects caused by crystal impurities. We tested our model with computer-generated noise-free input data, where it showed excellent accuracy, achieving an average RMSE of 0.43% between the predicted and the ground truth crystal properties. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effect of noisy data on the accuracy of the model.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

In-Situ Measurement of Power Loss for Crystalline Silicon Modules Undergoing Thermal Cycling and Mechanical Loading Stress Testing

An in-situ method is proposed for monitoring and estimating the power degradation of mc-Si photovoltaic (PV) modules undergoing thermo-mechanical degradation tests that primarily manifest through cell cracking, such as mechanical load tests, thermal cycling and humidity freeze tests. The method is based on in-situ measurement of the module’s dark current-voltage (I-V) characteristic curve during the stress test, as well as initial and final module flash testing on a Sun simulator. The method uses superposition of the dark I-V curve with final flash test module short-circuit current to account for shunt and junction recombination losses, as well as series resistance estimation from the in-situ measured dark I-Vs and final flash test measurements. The method is developed based on mc-Si standard modules undergoing several stages of thermo-mechanical stress testing and degradation, for which we investigate the impact of the degradation on the modules light I-V curve parameters, and equivalent solar cell model parameters. Experimental validation of the method on the modules tested shows good agreement between the in-situ estimated power degradation and the flash test measured power loss of the modules, of up to 4.31 % error (RMSE), as the modules experience primarily junction defect recombination and increased series resistance losses. However, the application of the method will be limited for modules experiencing extensive photo-current degradation or delamination, which are not well reflected in the dark I-V characteristic of the PV module.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Field-Level Perennial Bioenergy Grass Biomass Yields Using the Normalized Difference Red-Edge Index and Linear Regression Analysis for Central Virginia, USA

We investigated the indicative power of the normalized difference red-edge index (NDRE) for estimating field-level perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields utilizing Sentinel-2 imagery and a linear regression model as a rapid, cost-effective method for biomass yield estimations for bioenergy. We used 2019 data from three study sites containing mature perennial bioenergy grass stands in central Virginia, USA. Of the simulated daily NDRE values based on the temporally weighted averaging of two temporal neighbors, we found the strongest index–yield correlation on 11 August (R = 0.85). We estimated the perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields for (1) all sites using the data pooled from the three sites (all-site estimation) and (2) each site using the data pooled from the other two sites (cross-site estimation). The estimated field-level perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields strongly correlated with the recorded yields (average R2 = 0.76), with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.5 Mg/ha and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.2 Mg/ha for the all-site estimation. For the cross-site estimation, the site with diverse perennial grass types had the weakest correlation (R2 = 0.44) of the sites, indicating a difficulty in accounting for heterogeneous index–yield relationships in a single model. In addition to identifying a strong indicative power of the NDRE for estimating the overall perennial bioenergy grass biomass yields at a field level, the findings from this study call for an analysis across multiple perennial grasses and a comparison using multiple sites to understand (1) if the indicative power of the index shifts from the biomass of the specific perennial bioenergy grass type to the overall biomass during the growing season and (2) the level of perennial bioenergy grass heterogeneity that may hinder the remotely sensed biomass yield estimation using a single model.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Allometric and Mobile Terrestrial LiDAR Modeling of Aboveground Woody Biomass of Populus in Coppice Production

Poplars ( Populus spp.) and their hybrids are increasingly being grown in coppice production to generate bioenergy feedstocks at frequent intervals. Allometric equations are re-quired to predict aboveground biomass (AGB) of coppiced individuals with minimal field measurements. Likewise, remote sensing tools like LiDAR (light detection and ranging) can be used if models are available to predict AGB from point cloud data. Therefore, this study sought to develop equations to predict dry woody AGB from field measurements and LiDAR data from coppiced poplar field trials containing eastern cottonwood ( P. del-toides ) and hybrid poplar taxa. We found that taxa-specific allometric models containing the summed basal area of the three largest stems in the coppice provided the best predictive model, with stem height and stem count failing to provide additional explanatory power. The best predictive LiDAR-based model was independent of taxa but had slightly lower adjusted R 2 and higher RMSE than the allometric model. It contained four parameters including crown volume, leaf area index, variance of height returns, and the top point density (i.e., density metric 9 or the proportion of points in the highest point interval when the point cloud is evenly divided into ten vertical intervals). In total, these models can be used to quickly and efficiently estimate dry woody AGB of Populus coppice systems for bioenergy feedstock production.

AGB↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Finite Element Method for Compressible and Turbulent Multiphase Flow Instabilities with Heat Transfer

We present a new finite element framework for modeling compressible, turbulent multiphase flows with heat transfer. For two-fluid systems with a free surface, the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method is implemented without the need for interface reconstruction, while turbulence is resolved using a dynamic Vreman large eddy simulation (LES) model. Unlike most two-phase VOF studies, which neglect heat transfer, the present approach incorporates energy transport equations within the VOF formulation to account for heat exchange, an effect particularly important in turbulent flows. Conjugate heat transfer is often challenging in finite volume methods, which require explicit specification of heat fluxes at the solid–fluid interface, limiting accuracy and predictive capability. By contrast, the finite element formulation does not require heat flux inputs, allowing more accurate and robust simulation of heat transfer between solids and fluids. The method is demonstrated through three representative cases. First, a two-fluid instability with a single-mode perturbation is simulated and validated against analytical growth rates. Second, conjugate heat transfer is examined in a high-temperature flow over a cold metal cylinder, with validation performed both quantitatively—via pressure coefficient comparisons with experimental data—and qualitatively using vector field topology. Finally, compressible spray injection and breakup are modeled, demonstrating the ability of the framework to capture interfacial dynamics and atomization under turbulent, high-speed conditions. In the compressible spray injection and breakup case, the results indicate that the finite element formulation achieved higher predictive accuracy and robustness than the finite-volume method. With the same mesh resolution, the FEM reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) from 6.96 mm and 26.0% (for the FVM) to 4.85 mm and 12.7%, respectively, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness in capturing interfacial dynamics and heat transfer. The study also introduced vector field topology to visualize and interpret coherent flow structures and instabilities, offering insights beyond conventional scalar-field analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Primary and Low-Strain Creep Models for 9Cr Tempered Martensitic Steels Including the Effects of Irradiation Softening and High-Helium Re-Hardening

Primary and low-strain creep represents a very important integrity challenge to large, complex structures, like fusion reactors. Here, we develop a predictive empirical primary creep model for 9Cr tempered martensitic steels (TMS), relating the applied stress (σ) to strain (ε), time (t) and temperature (T). The most accurate model is based on the applied σ normalized by the steel’s T-dependent ultimate tensile stress (σo), σ/σo(T). The model, fit to 17 heats of 9Cr TMS, yielded a σ root mean square error (RMSE) of ≈±11 MPa. Notably, the model also provides robust predictions for all the other TMS, when calibrated only by the fusion candidate Eurofer97 database. The model was extended to explore two possible effects of neutron irradiation, which produces both displacements per atom (dpa) and helium (He in atomic parts per million, appm) damage. These effects, which have not been previously considered, include: (a) softening, as a function of dpa, at T > ≈400–450 °C, in low-He fission environments (<1 He/dpa); and (b) subsequent re-hardening in high-He (≥10 He/dpa) fusion first-wall environments. The irradiation effect models predict (a) accelerated primary creep due to irradiation softening; and (b) fully arrested creep due to high-He re-hardening.

Alam, Md Ershadul (ORCID:0000000345968026)↗