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At least 253 records · Page 14

Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather

Abstract Regional climate models can be used to examine how past weather events might unfold under different climate conditions by simulating analogue versions of those events with modified thermodynamic conditions (i.e., warming signals). Here, we apply this approach by dynamically downscaling a 40-year sequence of past weather from 1980–2019 driven by atmospheric re-analysis, and then repeating this 40-year sequence a total of 8 times using a range of time-evolving thermodynamic warming signals that follow 4 80-year future warming trajectories from 2020–2099. Warming signals follow two emission scenarios (SSP585 and SSP245) and are derived from two groups of global climate models based on whether they exhibit relatively high or low climate sensitivity. The resulting dataset, which contains 25 hourly and over 200 3-hourly variables at 12 km spatial resolution, can be used to examine a plausible range of future climate conditions in direct reference to previously observed weather and enables a systematic exploration of the ways in which thermodynamic change influences the characteristics of historical extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Representation of magnetic fields in space

Several mathematical methods which are available for the description of magnetic fields in space are reviewed. Examples of the application of such methods are given, with particular emphasis on work related to the geomagnetic field, and their individual properties and associated problems are described. The methods are grouped in five main classes: (1) methods based on the current density, (2) methods using the scalar magnetic potential, (3) toroidal and poloidal components of the field and spherical vector harmonics, (4) Euler potentials, and (5) local expansions of the field near a given reference point. Special attention is devoted to models of the magnetosphere, to the uniqueness of the scalar potential as derived from observed data, and to the L parameter.

Stern, D. P.↗

On 3-D inelastic analysis methods for hot section components (base program)

A 3-D Inelastic Analysis Method program is described. This program consists of a series of new computer codes embodying a progression of mathematical models (mechanics of materials, special finite element, boundary element) for streamlined analysis of: (1) combustor liners, (2) turbine blades, and (3) turbine vanes. These models address the effects of high temperatures and thermal/mechanical loadings on the local (stress/strain)and global (dynamics, buckling) structural behavior of the three selected components. Three computer codes, referred to as MOMM (Mechanics of Materials Model), MHOST (Marc-Hot Section Technology), and BEST (Boundary Element Stress Technology), have been developed and are briefly described in this report.

Wilson, R. B.↗

Advances in 3-D Inelastic Analysis Methods for hot section components

3-D Inelastic Analysis Methods are described. These methods consist of a series of new computer codes embodying a progression of mathematical models (mechanics of materials, specialty finite element, boundary element) for streamlined analysis of: (1) combustor liners, (2) turbine blades, and (3) turbine vanes. These models address the effects of high temperatures and thermal/mechanical loadings on the local (stress/strain) and global (dynamics, buckling) structural behavior of the three selected components. Three computer codes, referred to as MOMM (Mechanics of Materials Model), MHOST (MARC-Hot Section Technology), and BEST (Boundary Element Stress Technology), have been developed and are briefly described in this paper.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Empirical modeling of the quiet time nightside magnetosphere

Empirical modeling of plasma pressure and magnetic field for the quiet time nightside magnetosphere is investigated. Two models are constructed for this study. One model, referred to here as T89R, is basically the magnetic field model of Tsyganenko (1989) but is modified by the addition of an inner eastward ring current at a radial distance of approximately 3 R(sub E) as suggested by observation. The other is a combination of the T89R model and the long version of the magnetic field model of Tsyganenko (1987) such that the former dominates the magnetic field in the inner magnetosphere, whereas the latter prevails in the distant tail. The distribution of plasma pressure, which is required to balance the magnetic force for each of these two field models, is computed along the tail axis in the midnight meridian. The occurrence of pressure anisotropy in the inner magnetospheric region is also taken into account by determining an empirical fit to the observed plasma pressure anisotropy. This effort is the first attempt to obtain the plasma pressure distribution in force equilibrium with magnetic stresses from an empirical field model with the inclusion of pressure anisotropy. The inclusion of pressure anisotropy alters the plasma pressure by as much as a factor of approximately 3 in the inner magnetosphere. The deduced plasma pressure profile along the tail axis is found to be in good agreement with the observed quiet time plasma pressure for geocentric distances between approximately 2 and approximately 35 R(sub E).

Lui, A. T. Y.↗

Empirical modeling of the quiet time nightside magnetosphere

Empirical modeling of plasma pressure and magnetic field for the quiet time nightside magnetosphere is investigated. Two models are constructed for this study. One model, referred to here as T89R, is basically the magnetic field model of Tsyganenko (1989) but is modified by the addition of an inner eastward ring current at a radial distance of approximately 3 RE as suggested by observation. The other is a combination of the T89R model and the long version of the magnetic field model of Tsyganenko (1987) such that the former dominates the magnetic field in the inner magnetosphere while the latter prevails in the distant tail. The distribution of plasma pressure which is required to balance the magnetic force for each of these two field models is computed along the tail axis in the midnight meridian. The occurrence of pressure anisotropy in the inner magnetospheric region is also taken into account by determining an empirical fit to the observed plasma pressure anisotropy. This represents the first effort to obtain the plasma pressure distribution in force equilibrium with magnetic stresses from an empirical field model with the inclusion of pressure anisotropy. The inclusion of pressure anisotropy alters the plasma pressure by as much as a factor of approximately 3 in the inner magnetosphere. The deduced plasma pressure profile along the tail axis is found to be in good agreement with the observed quiet time plasma pressure for geocentric distances between approximately 2 and approximately 35 RE.

Lui, A. T. Y.↗

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Care 3 model overview and user's guide, first revision

A manual was written to introduce the CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) capability to reliability and design engineers who are interested in predicting the reliability of highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. It was also structured to serve as a quick-look reference manual for more experienced users. The guide covers CARE III modeling and reliability predictions for execution in the CDC CYber 170 series computers, DEC VAX-11/700 series computer, and most machines that compile ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77.

Bavuso, S. J.↗

A sequential decoding performance analysis for International Comet Explorer

The effect of a noisy reference carrier on the performance of International Comet Explorer (ICE) Sequential decoder is analyzed. Ideal reference models for frame deletion probability are given for the Telemetry Processing Assembly (TPA) and the Linkabit (LS4815) sequential decoders. Based on these ideal reference models the deletion probability in the presence of noisy reference carrier is computed for both the high and the low data rate cases. A medium data rate performance model is then derived using an interpolation method. The derived medium rate performance model depends on the phase locked loop bandwidth-integration time product. Results are obtained for frame length 1024 bits, data bit rates of 1024 bps and 512 bps, modulation index of 60 deg, and threshold loop bandwidths of 10 Hz and 3 Hz. The medium rate model agrees with experimental data to within measurement uncertainty. For the 10 Hz loop bandwidth and modulation index of 60 deg at frame deletion rate of 0.0001, the required total received power to noise ratio is 36 dB. The analysis given is general and applicable to any sequential decoder, provided that the ideal reference model of the decoder is available.

Divsalar, D.↗

On the relative rotational motion between rigid fibers and fluid in turbulent channel flow

In this study, the rotation of small rigid fibers relative to the surrounding fluid in wall-bounded turbulence is examined by means of direct numerical simulations coupled with Lagrangian tracking. Statistics of the relative (fiber-to-fluid) angular velocity, referred to as slip spin in the present study, are evaluated by modelling fibers as prolate spheroidal particles with Stokes number, St, ranging from 1 to 100 and aspect ratio, λ, ranging from 3 to 50. Results are compared one-to-one with those obtained for spherical particles (λ = 1) to highlight effects due to fiber length. The statistical moments of the slip spin show that differences in the rotation rate of fibers and fluid are influenced by inertia, but depend strongly also on fiber length: Departures from the spherical shape, even when small, are associated with an increase of rotational inertia and prevent fibers from passively following the surrounding fluid. An increase of fiber length, in addition, decouples the rotational dynamics of a fiber from its translational dynamics suggesting that the two motions can be modelled independently only for long enough fibers (e.g., for aspect ratios of order ten or higher in the present simulations)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A new formulation of hybrid/mixed finite element

A new formulation of finite element method is accomplished by the Hellinger-Reissner principle for which the stress equilibrium conditions are not introduced initially but are brought-in through the use of additional internal displacement parameters. The method can lead to the same result as the assumed stress hybrid model. However, it is more general and more flexible. The use of natural coordinates for stress assumptions leads to elements which are less sensitive to the choice of reference coordinates. Numerical solutions by 3-D solid element indicate that more efficient elements can be constructed by assumed stresses which only partially satisfy the equilibrium conditions.

Pian, T. H. H.↗

A Linear Bicharacteristic FDTD Method

The linear bicharacteristic scheme (LBS) was originally developed to improve unsteady solutions in computational acoustics and aeroacoustics [1]-[7]. It is a classical leapfrog algorithm, but is combined with upwind bias in the spatial derivatives. This approach preserves the time-reversibility of the leapfrog algorithm, which results in no dissipation, and it permits more flexibility by the ability to adopt a characteristic based method. The use of characteristic variables allows the LBS to treat the outer computational boundaries naturally using the exact compatibility equations. The LBS offers a central storage approach with lower dispersion than the Yee algorithm, plus it generalizes much easier to nonuniform grids. It has previously been applied to two and three-dimensional freespace electromagnetic propagation and scattering problems [3], [6], [7]. This paper extends the LBS to model lossy dielectric and magnetic materials. Results are presented for several one-dimensional model problems, and the FDTD algorithm is chosen as a convenient reference for comparison.

Beggs, John H.↗

Time series comparisons in Deep Space Network

The Deep Space Network (DSN) is NASA’s international array of antennas that support interplanetary spacecraft missions. DSN provides radar and radio astronomy observations that enhance our understanding of the solar system and the larger universe. A track is a block of continuous multi-dimensional time series from the beginning to end of DSN communication with the target spacecraft, containing 129 monitor data items lasting several hours at a frequency of 0.2-1Hz. Monitor data on each track reports on the performance of specific spacecraft operations and the DSN itself. DSN is receiving signals from 32 spacecraft across the solar system. DSN has pressure to reduce costs while maintaining the quality of support for DSN mission users. DSN operators need to simultaneously monitor multiple tracks and identify anomalies in real time. DSN has seen that as the number of missions increases, the data that needs to be processed increases over time. In this project, we look at the last 8 years of data for analysis. Any anomaly in the track indicates a problem with either the spacecraft, DSN equipment, or weather conditions. DSN operators typically write “discrepancy reports” for further analysis. It is recognized that it would be quite helpful to identify 10 similar historical tracks out of the huge database to quickly find/match anomalies. This tool has three functions: (1) identification of the top 10 similar historical tracks, (2) detection of anomalies compared to the reference normal track, and (3) comparison of statistical differences between two given tracks. The requirements for these features were confirmed by survey responses from 21 DSN operators and engineers. The preliminary machine learning model has shown promising performance (AUC=0.92). We plan to increase the number of data sets and perform additional testing to improve performance further before its planned integration into the Track Visualizer to assist DSN field operators and engineers.

Rebbapragada, Umaa↗

High Flux Isotope Reactor Low-Enriched Uranium Low Density Silicide Fuel Design Parameters

High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) conversion activities are ongoing as part of the Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s nuclear nonproliferation mission. Design activities studying the conversion of HFIR from HEU to LEU fuel explored different fuel design features and shapes with a low density uranium-silicide dispersion (U 3 Si 2 -Al) fuel, which has a uranium density of 4.8 gU/cm 3 . The goal of these studies is to generate several HFIR LEU fuel designs of varying fuel fabrication complexity that meet the current HEU performance metrics and safety requirements. The documented designs will serve as references for fuel fabrication and qualification activities. Recent advancements in modeling and simulation tools enable quick prototyping of fuel designs. Shift, a Monte Carlo neutron transport and depletion tool optimized for high-performance computing (HPC) architectures, is used for efficient fuel cycle and performance metrics calculations. The HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) is used to vet the thermal safety margin. Also, a new automation tool that connects all fuel design analysis steps, named Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME), has been developed to expedite the design study in an efficient and reproducible manner. Leveraging these tools, several candidate fuel designs were selected for varying fabrication complexity. This report provides design feature details for four selected HFIR LEU low density U 3 Si 2 -Al fuel designs and their corresponding performance and safety metrics. Nominal, best-estimate design parameters and irradiation conditions, including fission rate densities, power densities, heat fluxes, and cumulative fission densities are provided for candidate fuel designs relevant to framing irradiation experiments to support fuel qualification efforts. Simulations show that the low density U 3 Si 2 -Al, with design features to enhance safety, can meet HEU core performance metrics and safety requirements if the reactor power is increased from 85 MW (HEU) to 95 MW (LEU) and if the active fuel length is increased from 50.80 cm (HEU) to 55.88 cm (LEU).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis: Thermal Quality Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis (GPFA-AB)

This collection of files are part of a larger dataset uploaded in support of Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB). Phase 1 of the GPFA-AB project identified potential Geothermal Play Fairways within the Appalachian basin of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New York. This was accomplished through analysis of 4 key criteria: thermal quality, natural reservoir productivity, risk of seismicity, and heat utilization. Each of these analyses represent a distinct project task, with the fifth task encompassing combination of the 4 risks factors. Supporting data for all five tasks has been uploaded into the Geothermal Data Repository node of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS). This submission comprises the data for Thermal Quality Analysis (project task 1) and includes all of the necessary shapefiles, rasters, datasets, code, and references to code repositories that were used to create the thermal resource and risk factor maps as part of the GPFA-AB project. The identified Geothermal Play Fairways are also provided with the larger dataset. Figures (.png) are provided as examples of the shapefiles and rasters. The regional standardized 1 square km grid used in the project is also provided as points (cell centers), polygons, and as a raster. Two ArcGIS toolboxes are available: 1) RegionalGridModels.tbx for creating resource and risk factor maps on the standardized grid, and 2) ThermalRiskFactorModels.tbx for use in making the thermal resource maps and cross sections. These toolboxes contain item description documentation for each model within the toolbox, and for the toolbox itself. This submission also contains three R scripts: 1) AddNewSeisFields.R to add seismic risk data to attribute tables of seismic risk, 2) StratifiedKrigingInterpolation.R for the interpolations used in the thermal resource analysis, and 3) LeaveOneOutCrossValidation.R for the cross validations used in the thermal interpolations. Some file descriptions make reference to various 'memos'. These are contained within the final report submitted October 16, 2015. Each zipped file in the submission contains an 'about' document describing the full Thermal Quality Analysis content available, along with key sources, authors, citation, use guidelines, and assumptions, with the specific file(s) contained within the .zip file highlighted. UPDATE: Newer version of the Thermal Quality Analysis has been added here: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/879 (Also linked below) Newer version of the Combined Risk Factor Analysis has been added here: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/880 (Also linked below)

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Direct measurement of reduced exchange stiffness and its impact on magnetic vortex behavior in PyGd alloys

Thin films composed of sputtered transition metal/rare earth (TM/RE) ferrimagnets have emerged as promising building blocks for future spintronic devices, offering tunable magnetic properties critical for data storage, memory, and logic applications. However, understanding how the combination of TM and RE elements influences effective magnetic properties, such as exchange stiffness (Aex), remains challenging. Magnetic vortices provide a versatile tool for probing these properties in thin film systems. By combining magnetic imaging via soft x-ray microscopy and micromagnetic modeling, we quantify the effective exchange stiffness in PyGd ferrimagnetic disks with varying Gd concentrations. Our results indicate a reduction in Aex to below 3 pJ/m for a 20% Gd concentration when compared to reference Py, and values below 2 pJ/m for 30% Gd, reflecting weak Ni–Gd exchange coupling. These findings highlight the critical role of rare earth content in tuning the exchange stiffness. The reduced exchange stiffness facilitates a linear field response of the magnetization up to the edge of the disk, as well as significant deformations in the vortex core itself when compared to films with larger Aex. Our results are in line with, albeit lower than, recent measurements of the exchange stiffness in intermixed PyGd. This reduced exchange stiffness has implications for the development of spintronic devices based on ferrimagnetic skyrmions.

Jacob, Liyan↗

On the need for the light elements primary process (LEPP)

Extant chemical evolution models underestimate the galactic production of Sr, Y, and Zr as well as the solar system abundances of s-only isotopes with 90 < A < 130. To solve this problem, an additional (unknown) process has been invoked, the so-called light element primary process (LEPP). In this paper we investigate possible alternative solutions. Based on Full Network Stellar evolutionary calculations, we investigate the effects on the solar system s-only distribution induced by the inclusion of some commonly ignored physical processes (e.g., rotation) or by the variation of the treatment of convective overshoot, mass loss, and the efficiency of nuclear processes. Our main findings are (1) at the epoch of the formation of the solar system, our reference model produces supersolar abundances for the whole s-only distribution, even in the range 90 < A < 130, (2) within errors, the s-only distribution relative to {sup 150}Sm is flat, (3) the s-process contribution of the less massive AGB stars (M < 1.5 M {sub ⊙}) as well as of the more massive ones (M > 4.0 M {sub ⊙}) are negligible, (4) the inclusion of rotation implies a downward shift of the whole distribution with a higher efficiency for the heavy s-only isotopes, leading to a flatter s-only distribution, (5) different prescriptions on convection or mass loss produce nearly rigid shifts of the whole distribution. In summary, a variation of the standard paradigm of AGB nucleosynthesis would allow reconciliation of model predictions with solar system s-only abundances. Nonetheless, the LEPP cannot be definitely ruled out because of the uncertainties still affecting stellar and galactic chemical evolution models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗