Advances in Reliability Monitoring and Failure Analysis in 3D Microsystems
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Jordan, Matthew↗
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Quantification, Trade-off Analysis, and Optimal Checkpoint Placement for Reliability and Availability
Checkpointing is the most widely used technique in high-performance computing (HPC) to ensure the application progress in the presence of failures. In this paper, we present mathematical models of the checkpointing systems to quantify their reliability and availability. We perform trade-off analysis with respect to resource costs and reliability. Then, we explore the optimal checkpoint placement for checkpointing systems to maximize system availability. Finally, in a rigorous manner, we comparatively analyze the behavior of redundant systems where replication and repair mechanisms are employed. We postulate that the proposed models can aid system designers, who can instantiate our models to assess and quantify the availability and reliability of systems of interest. Our study demonstrates that the configuration with most reliable and available systems depends on the parameter settings.
Subasi, Omer↗
Informing Plant Asset Reliability and Availability Through AI-Driven Analysis of Operator Logs
The availability and reliability of nuclear power plant (NPP) structures, systems, and components (SSCs) are critical parameters for NPP safety. Tracking these parameters is necessary but costly and labor-intensive, requiring the collection and evaluation of SSC event data such as shutdowns, startups, and failures. To show how these events are needed for the parameters an example is given: one measure of reliability is based on the number of equipment failure events and the number of run hours (i.e., the time from a startup event to a shutdown event). Here, this work investigates using artificial intelligence (AI) to mine NPP operator log entry texts for SSC event data. Four AI approaches were explored for identifying these events, including natural language processing (NLP) methods, generative AI, generative AI combined with NLP, and topic modeling. A key challenge addressed with all four approaches is the brevity of operator log entries. Among these four a neural network–based NLP method was shown to be the most promising for this application, achieving F1 scores of 86.0% for shutdowns, 92.2% for startups, and 80.4% for failures on a subject-matter-expert-curated dataset from NPP operator logs, compared to a baseline of 66.6% for a random classifier. This shows that NLP methods can perform better than generative AI. Additionally, the NLP methods combined with generative AI were shown to perform better than generative AI alone. Generative AI was most successful at providing the background information for the NLP methods to use. This work demonstrates the potential to use AI to automate parameter collection from NPP operator log entries and other records.
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Technical Comparative Analysis of "Best of Breed" Turnkey Si-Based Processes and Equipment, to be Used to Produce a Combined Multi-entity Research and Development Technology Roadmap for Thick and Thin Silicon PV
A side-by-side analysis was done on then currently available technology, along with roadmaps to push each particular option forward. Variations in turnkey line processes can and do result in finished solar device performance. Together with variations in starting material quality, the result is a distribution of efficiencies. Forensic analysis and characterization of each crystalline Si based technology will determine the most promising approach with respect to cost, efficiency and reliability. Forensic analysis will also shed light on the causes of binning variations. Si solar cells were forensically analyzed from each turn key supplier using a host of techniques
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Combinations of NIR, Raman spectroscopy and physicochemical measurements for improved monitoring of solvent extraction processes using hierarchical multivariate analysis models
The reliability of chemical processes can be greatly improved by implementing inline monitoring systems. Combining multivariate analysis with non-destructive sensors can enhance the process without interfering with the operation. Here, we present here hierarchical models using both principal component analysis and partial least square analysis developed for different chemical components representative of solvent extraction process streams. A training set of 380 samples and an external validation set of 95 samples were prepared and Near infrared and Raman spectral data as well as conductivity under variable temperature conditions were collected. The results from the models indicate that careful selection of the spectral range is important. By compressing the data through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we lower the rank of the data set to its most dominant features while maintaining the key principal components to be used in the regression analysis. Within the studied data set, concentration of five chemical components were modeled; total nitrate (NO 3 - ), total acid (H + ), neodymium (Nd 3+ ), sodium (Na + ), and ionic strength (I.S.). The best overall model prediction for each of the species studied used a combined data set comprised of complementary techniques including NIR, Raman, and conductivity. Finally, our study shows that chemometric models are powerful but requires significant amount of carefully analyzed data to capture variations in the chemistry.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Electric Motor Thermal Management
The poster reports the accomplishments of EDT-Electric Motor Thermal Management consortium project for 2024 VTO Annual Merit Review (AMR). The overall aims of the project are to support research enabling compact, reliable, low-cost, and efficient electric machines aligned with roadmap research areas; to collaborate with ORNL, Ames, and SNL to provide motor thermal analysis support, reliability evaluation, and material measurements on related motor research at national laboratories; and collaborate with university partners including Georgia Institute of Technology and University of Wisconsin Madison to support university-led motor thermal management research efforts.
ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
New method of automated statistical analysis of polymer-stabilized metal nanoparticles in electron microscopy images
The efficiency of the synthesis and application of metal/nonmetal particles several nanometers in size, prepared in solutions and stabilized with polymers, can be increased by applying a reliable statistical analysis and determining particle-size distributions for different systems. A new method for processing electron microscopy images of nanoparticles ≤10 nm in size and the program Analyzer of Nanoparticles designed for rapid recognition and measurements are presented. The program combines two approaches: threshold image processing for particle recognition and fitting the model of the particles with neighborhood background to the real experimental images.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Comparison of Error Rate Depending on Operator Expertise and Simulator Complexity
This paper analyzes operator's error rate from experiments, depending on the expertise and simulator complexity. This study uses the Rancor Microworld, a simplified simulator developed by INL, and the Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS), a less simplified simulator developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The error rates were measured from simulation data of a total of 72 participants, and the collected error rate data were analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) test.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of High Safety Significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology and Demonstration
This report documents the activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a technical basis to support effective and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. A framework was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the risk impact of plant modernization, considering the introduction of high safety-significant safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing risk-informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of HSSSR DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals, the framework provides a means to address relevant technical issues by: (1) defining a risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, that integrates hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs).
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology Refinement and Exploration
This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a technical basis to support effective, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. A risk assessment-informed framework was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk informed capability to quantitatively estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for safety-related DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing risk informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of safety-related DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals, the LWRS-developed framework provides a means to address relevant technical issues by: (1) defining a risk informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade that integrates hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying risk informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Adding diversity within a system or components is the primary means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases system complexity and may not address all sources of systematic failures. Optimization of diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the proposed framework provides: (a) A best-estimate, risk informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, focusing on software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; (b) A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems; (c) Technical bases and risk informed insights to assist users address the risk informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; and (d) A risk informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The research and development efforts of this project in FY 2023 are focused on refining current methods on software CCF modeling and estimation and exploring additional innovative approaches to risk assessment of DI&C systems to enable a more comprehensive and complete assessment of various safety-related DI&C design architectures. The primary audience of this report are DI&C designers, engineers, and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) practitioners. This includes stakeholders, such as the nuclear utilities and regulators who consider the deployment and upgrade of DI&C systems, DI&C software developers and reviewers, and cybersecurity specialists. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the methodology, not for the evaluation of an actual digital control system. Results are obtained based on limited design information and testing data.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
A unique molten salt reactor feature – The freeze valve system: Design, operating experience, and reliability
Not Available
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
On the applicability of probabilistic analyses to assess the structural reliability of materials and components for solid-oxide fuel cells
The applicability of probabilistic analyses to assess the structural reliability of materials and components for solid-oxide fuel cells (SOFC) is investigated by measuring the failure rate of Ni-YSZ when subjected to a temperature gradient and comparing it with that predicted using the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) code. The use of a temperature gradient to induce stresses was chosen because temperature gradients resulting from gas flow patterns generate stresses during SOFC operation that are the likely to control the structural reliability of cell components The magnitude of the predicted failure rate was found to be comparable to that determined experimentally, which suggests that such probabilistic analyses are appropriate for predicting the structural reliability of materials and components for SOFCs. Considerations for performing more comprehensive studies are discussed.
Lara-Curzio, Edgar↗
Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks
The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.
24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Quantitative Risk Analysis of High Safety Significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants using IRADIC Technology
This report documents the activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2021 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. In FY-2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems (IRADIC technology) was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the High Safety Significant Safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) develop an advanced risk assessment technology to support transition from analog to DI&C technologies for nuclear industry, (3) assure the long-term safety and reliability of vital HSSSR DI&C systems, (4) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the IRADIC technology is instructive for nuclear vendors and utilities to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify responding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the individual level, system level, and plant level, (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks; thus, to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). In this report, an approach for performing software CCF analysis, given limited data, is developed and demonstrated using a case study of a highly redundant digital reactor trip system. Consequence analysis is also performed based on different accident scenarios. Results indicate that plant modernization including the improvement of HSSSR DI&C systems will make great benefits to plant safety by providing more safety margins to accident management. In addition, a novel approach is proposed in this report for the quantification of software hazards when sufficient operational and testing data available. The method incorporates software development quality as well as strong analysis techniques to identify and link software defects to potential failure modes. The approach includes both semantic and test-based analysis to detect failures that can exist in different stages of the software development life cycle. This method is applied to an advanced human system interface relevant to reactor trip safety developed from the APR 1400 design.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Reliability-Informed Economic and Energy Evaluation for Bi-Level Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study of Transmission and Hydraulic Manifold
Abstract Design for remanufacturing (DfRem) is one attractive strategy that encourages the reuse of a product and extends the product's life cycle. Traditional design processes often only consider product reliability at an early design stage. However, from the perspective of environmental sustainability, it is becoming increasingly important to evaluate the long-term economic and environmental impacts of design decisions during early-stage design. We propose a bi-level DfRem framework consisting of system-level reusability allocation and component-level design tradeoff analysis, considering reliability and product warranty policy. First, a system-level reusability allocation problem aims at a theoretical exploration of the design space where all the components comprising the system are allocated certain reuse rates to achieve target energy savings with minimum cost. Following the theoretical exploration at the system level, a component-level analysis looks at practical design options for each component and trades-off between the overall cost and energy consumption for multiple remanufacturing cycles. Both levels of the framework require modeling component reuse for multiple remanufacturing cycles, which we achieve by using a branched power-law model that provides probabilistic scenarios of reusing the component or replacing it with a new part. We demonstrate the utility of this framework with the case study of an infinitely variable transmission (IVT) used by some agricultural machines manufactured by John Deere and show snapshots of a prototype software tool that we developed for easy use by designers.
Engineering↗
Risk Analysis of Various Design Architectures for High Safety-significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems of Nuclear Power Plants during Accident Scenarios
This report documents the plus-up activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the high safety-significant safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing advanced risk-informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions and diversity and redundancy applications, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of HSSSR DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the LWRS-developed framework instructs nuclear vendors and utilities on how to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). Adding diversity within system or components is the main means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases plant complexity and errors and may not address all sources of systematic failures. How to optimize the diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the framework provides: ? An integrated best-estimate, risk-informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, accurately, and efficiently in plan modernization progress, such as software CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs ? A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to efficiently predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems ? Technical bases and risk-informed insights to assist U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry to address and fulfill the risk-informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in HSSSR DI&C systems of NPPs ? An integrated risk-informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The plus-up research and development efforts of this project in FY 2022 are focused on methodology improvement of software CCF modeling and estimation, prevention analysis, importance analysis and risk analysis of various design architectures of HSSSR DI&C systems. This work greatly enhances the capability of the LWRS-developed framework for the risk assessment and design optimization of safety-critical DI&C systems. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the LWRS-developed framework, not for the evaluation of relevant systems. Results are obtained based on very limited design information and testing data.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
A Big Problem for Small Earthquakes: Benchmarking Routine Magnitudes and Conversion Relationships with Coda Envelope-Derived Mw in Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma
Earthquake magnitudes are widely relied upon measures of earthquake size. Although moment magnitude (M w ) has become the established standard for moderate and large earthquakes, difficulty in reliably measuring seismic moments for small (generally M w <4) earthquakes has meant that magnitudes for these events remain plagued by a patchwork of inconsistent measurement scales. Because of this, magnitudes of small earthquakes and statistics derived from them can be biased. Furthermore, because small earthquakes are much more numerous than large ones, many applications, such as seismic hazard modeling, depend critically on analysis of events characterized by magnitudes other than M w . Therefore, to assess this problem, we apply coda envelope analysis to reliably determine moment magnitudes for a case study of small earthquakes from northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Not surprisingly, we find significant differences among M L , m bLg , and M w for M ~2–4 earthquakes examined here. More troublingly, we find that relations designed to convert other magnitudes to M w , which are relied upon for important applications such as seismic hazard analysis, often increase rather than decrease this bias for our dataset. In our case study, we find that converted magnitudes can result in a systematic bias sometimes exceeding 0.5 magnitude units, a difference that typically corresponds to a factor of ~3 in seismicity rate. Moreover, we find a correspondingly large bias in Gutenberg–Richter b-values, controlled primarily by inaccurate magnitude scaling in the conversion relationships. Although this study focuses on a relatively small geographic area, we can expect that similar issues exist with varying severity in other regions. Therefore, magnitudes of small earthquakes and their associated statistics, including seismicity rates and b-values, should be treated with caution.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Accuracy of kinetic equilibrium reconstruction of NSTX and NSTX-U plasmas and its impact on the transport and stability analysis
An accurate magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium reconstruction is an essential starting point for stability and transport plasma analysis. Herein this work describes an approach for obtaining kinetic equilibrium reconstructions using the OMFIT framework, which has been applied for the first time to spherical tokamak data from NSTX and NSTX-U. The EFIT equilibrium solver is integrated with experimental data analysis procedures and subsequent TRANSP transport simulations to enhance the accuracy of the reconstruction, in particular, at the edge region, by adding constraints on the total pressure and current density profiles, based on the transport code solution. The accuracy of the equilibrium reconstruction depends on the uncertainty and number of constraints, as well as the choice of basis functions to represent the pressure and current density profiles. Improved fidelity of the equilibrium reconstruction is demonstrated by reducing the variability of the magnetic axis and boundary locations from several centimeters, for reconstructions based on magnetic and experimental pressure constraints, to only several millimeters, for kinetic reconstructions based on transport code constraints, when different representations of basis functions were tested. The variability of the safety factor on axis was reduced ten times in the same sensitivity study. The accuracy of the equilibrium reconstruction and subsequent mapping of the experimental kinetic profile data have a significant impact on the trapped gyro Landau fluid and linear CGYRO turbulence simulations, which predict different spectra of unstable modes and turbulent fluxes for cases with different numbers of constraints in the equilibrium reconstruction. Conversely, the stability analysis performed using the GATO code shows plasmas that are stable to n = 1 MHD modes in both equilibria using magnetic and experimental pressure constraints as well as the transport code constrained equilibrium. However, a scan of parameters away from these conditions shows considerable deviation in the threshold of unstable modes between these reconstructions. Therefore, for reliable plasma analysis and use in turbulence and stability calculations, a high-fidelity equilibrium reconstruction with accurate kinetic constraints based on transport code solutions is necessary.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗