Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Reliability model generation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

Hy-DAT: A Tool to Address Hydropower Modeling Gaps Using Interdependency, Efficiency Curves, and Unit Dispatch Models

As the power system continues to be flooded with intermittent resources, it becomes more important to accurately assess the role of hydro and its impact on the power grid. While hydropower generation has been studied for decades, dependency of power generation on water availability and constraints in hydro operation are not well represented in power system models used in the planning and operation of large-scale interconnection studies. There are still multiple modeling gaps that need to be addressed; if not, they can lead to inaccurate operation and planning reliability studies, and consequently to unintentional load shedding or even blackouts. As a result, it is very important thathydropower is represented correctly in both steady-state and dynamic power system studies. In this paper, we discuss the development and use of the Hydrological Dispatch and Analysis Tool (Hy-DAT) as an interactive graphical user interface (GUI), that uses a novel methodology to address the hydropower modeling gaps like water availability and inter-dependency using a database, and algorithms, to generate accurate representative models for power system simulation.

Wang, Dewei↗

Random Vibration Testing of Advanced Wet Tantalum Capacitors

Advanced wet tantalum capacitors allow for improved performance of power supply systems along with substantial reduction of size and weight of the systems that is especially beneficial for space electronics. Due to launch-related stresses, acceptance testing of all space systems includes random vibration test (RVT). However, many types of advanced wet tantalum capacitors cannot pass consistently RVT at conditions specified in MIL-PRF-39006, which impedes their use in space projects. This requires a closer look at the existing requirements, modes and mechanisms of failures, specifics of test conditions, and acceptance criteria. In this work, different lots of advanced wet tantalum capacitors from four manufacturers have been tested at step stress random vibration conditions while their currents were monitored before, during, and after the testing. It has been shown that the robustness of the parts and their reliability are mostly due to effective self-healing processes and limited current spiking or minor scintillations caused by RVT do not increase the risk of failures during operation. A simple model for scintillations events has been used to simulate current spiking during RVT and optimize test conditions. The significance of scintillations and possible effects of gas generation have been discussed and test acceptance criteria for limited current spiking have been suggested.

cracking↗

Modeling betatron radiation using particle-in-cell codes for plasma wakefield accelerator diagnostics

The analysis of plasma wakefield acceleration experimental measurements, particularly in the characterization of photons emitted through the betatron radiation mechanism, requires the development of accurate numerical models. These computational models are crucial for supporting modern instrumentation designed to measure the single-shot, double-differential angular-energy radiation spectra resulting from interactions between beams and plasmas. Motivated by the needs of such applications, this paper presents detailed numerical models of betatron radiation generated in beam-plasma acceleration experiments. These models are based on the integration of the Liénard-Wiechert (LW) potentials, applied to computed particle trajectories. The particle trajectories are generated using three distinct methods: first, by tracking particles through idealized fields in the blowout regime of PWFA; second, by obtaining trajectories using the fast quasistatic particle-in-cell (PIC) code quickpic; and third, obtaining trajectories from the fully self-consistent PIC code osiris. To ensure the accuracy and reliability of these models, the paper includes various benchmark tests using analytical expressions, as well as employing the PIC code epoch, which takes an alternative approach by using a Monte Carlo quantum electrodynamics (QED)-based radiation model. Additionally, the paper presents simulations of the expected experimental betatron radiation spectra, taking into account parameters relevant to PWFA and plasma photocathode experiments at the SLAC FACET-II facility.

Yadav, M. [University of California, Los Angeles, ↗

Explainable AI for Multivariate Time Series Pattern Exploration: Latent Space Visual Analytics With Temporal Fusion Transformer and Variational Autoencoders in Power Grid Event Diagnosis

Detecting and analyzing complex patterns in multivariate time-series data is crucial for decision-making in urban and environmental system operations. However, challenges arise from the high dimensionality, intricate complexity, and interconnected nature of complex patterns, which hinder the understanding of their underlying physical processes. Existing AI methods often face limitations in interpretability, computational efficiency, and scalability, reducing their applicability in real-world scenarios. This paper proposes a novel visual analytics framework that integrates two generative AI models, Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), to reduce complex patterns into lower-dimensional latent spaces and visualize them in 2D using dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA, t-SNE, and UMAP with DBSCAN. These visualizations, presented through coordinated and interactive views and tailored glyphs, enable intuitive exploration of complex multivariate temporal patterns, identifying patterns’ similarities and uncover their potential correlations for a better interpretability of the AI outputs. The framework is demonstrated through a case study on power grid signal data, where it identifies multi-label grid event signatures, including faults and anomalies with diverse root causes. Additionally, novel metrics and visualizations are introduced to validate the models and assess the performance, efficiency, and consistency of latent maps generated by VAE, which have been utilized in prior studies for latent space cartography and used as a benchmark in this study, and the emerging TFT architecture under various configurations. These analyses provide actionable insights for model parameter tuning and reliability improvements. Comparative results highlight that TFT achieves shorter run times and superior scalability to diverse time-series data shapes compared to VAE. This work advances fault diagnosis in multivariate time series, fostering explainable AI to support critical system operations.

Explainable AI↗

Fluid-kinetic modeling of a high power density radio frequency inductively coupled positive hydrogen ion source

High power density radio-frequency (RF) inductively coupled positive ion sources are attractive candidates for next-generation neutral beam injection (NBI) systems, where higher injected power and longer pulse lengths are desired without sacrificing source reliability. Operating at absorbed power densities of order $\gt 1~\mathrm{W\,cm}^{-3}$ places these sources in a regime with stronger gas heating, higher dissociation, and non-Maxwellian electron energy distributions. The Large Uniform Plasma for Ionizing Neutrals (LUPIN) is an RF inductively coupled plasma source designed to explore this high power density regime and to provide guidance for a positive ion source upgrade for the DIII-D NBI system. LUPIN is designed to operate at up to 20 kW of RF power at 2 MHz, coupling energy through a cylindrical quartz vessel to achieve target ion current densities of $2100\,\mathrm{A\,m}^{-2}$ . This paper presents fluid-kinetic modeling of LUPIN using the hybrid plasma equipment model where electrons are treated kinetically, and the simulations reveal that electron energy distribution function transitions from nearly Maxwellian in the core to bi-Maxwellian towards the edge. Parametric simulations investigate the effects of RF power, gas pressure, and frequency on plasma density, ion flux, and uniformity. Parametric sweeps reveal that increasing power shifts the primary ionization channel from molecular to atomic with diminishing flux gains due to skin-depth contraction and gas rarefaction. Higher frequency localizes heating and increases $\mathrm{H}_2^+$ and $\mathrm{H}_3^+$ delivery to the grid, while elevated pressure boosts ionization yet hinders ion transport due to increase in collisionality.

inductively coupled plasma↗

Satellite laser station Helwan status 1992

The Satellite Laser Station Helwan has been operated jointly by the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics in Helwan, Egypt and the Czech Technical University in Prague, Czechslovakia. The station components have been carefully tuned to increase the systems overall stability and reliability critical for the remote location. The mount correction model based on the Gaussian smoothing has been implemented to simplify the blind satellite acquisition and tracking. The on-site normal points generation algorithm has been implemented, the station has been connected to the international information network. The ERS-1 satellite has been included into the tracking schedule. The station range capability has been verified by experimental Etalon 1 ranging by April 1992. The ranging precision of 2-3 centimeters is obtained when ranging to ERS-1, Starlette, and Lageos satellites.

Cech, M.↗

APEX 3D Propeller Test Preliminary Design

A low Reynolds number, high subsonic mach number flight regime is fairly uncommon in aeronautics. Most flight vehicles do not fly under these aerodynamic conditions. However, recently there have been a number of proposed aircraft applications (such as high altitude observation platforms and Mars aircraft) that require flight within this regime. One of the main obstacles to flight under these conditions is the ability to reliably generate sufficient thrust for the aircraft. For a conventional propulsion system, the operation and design of the propeller is the key aspect to its operation. Due to the difficulty in experimentally modeling the flight conditions in ground-based facilities, it has been proposed to conduct propeller experiments from a high altitude gliding platform (APEX). A preliminary design of a propeller experiment under the low Reynolds number, high mach number flight conditions has been devised. The details of the design are described as well as the potential data that will be collected.

Colozza, Anthony J.↗

A Best Practices System to Enhance CFD Use in Stability and Control Applications

Successful use of CFD to provide aerodynamics for stability and control (S&C) applications will require that the traditional time and costs associated with CFD be reduced and that the errors and uncertainties currently associated with CFD be better understood. CFD will be required to work under a wide range of flow conditions and provide fast and reliable aerodynamics if it is to contribute to this next generation of S&C analyses. CFD solutions have errors and uncertainties due to poorly converged solutions, solution anomalies caused by grids, turbulence models, and parameter selection, and other manifold reasons. In addition to the above problems, there will be a requirement for communications between the CFD expert and the S&C expert and possibly experts from other related disciplines. The CFD expert may not understand the technical problems associated with S&C, and it is almost certain the converse is true.

Morrison, Joseph H.↗

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Robust Explanations using Diverse Adversarially Trained Ensembles, Multi-Modal Contrastive Learning, and Attribution-based Confidence Metrics

The primary objective of this project is to strengthen the trustworthiness of AI systems by designing algorithms that make their internal decision-making processes more understandable to human users. This involves creating clear, interpretable explanations for AI decisions and developing metrics to assess these explanations' validity and reliability. Significant progress has been achieved through (i) developing symbolic explanations, (ii) generating meaningful interpretive insights, (iii) establishing accuracy and confidence metrics, and (iv) devising methods to evaluate the knowledge boundaries of AI models. To date, the research findings have been shared in peer-reviewed publications, with accompanying scientific and technical information (STI) detailed below.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An improved version of NCOREL: A computer program for 3-D nonlinear supersonic potential flow computations

A computer code called NCOREL (for Nonconical Relaxation) has been developed to solve for supersonic full potential flows over complex geometries. The method first solves for the conical at the apex and then marches downstream in a spherical coordinate system. Implicit relaxation techniques are used to numerically solve the full potential equation at each subsequent crossflow plane. Many improvements have been made to the original code including more reliable numerics for computing wing-body flows with multiple embedded shocks, inlet flow through simulation, wake model and entropy corrections. Line relaxation or approximate factorization schemes are optionally available. Improved internal grid generation using analytic conformal mappings, supported by a simple geometric Harris wave drag input that was originally developed for panel methods and internal geometry package are some of the new features.

Siclari, Michael J.↗

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

Wheeler, J. T.↗

Mathematical model to estimate risk of calcium-containing renal stones

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Astronauts exposed to microgravity during the course of spaceflight undergo physiologic changes that alter the urinary environment so as to increase the risk of renal stone formation. This study was undertaken to identify a simple method with which to evaluate the potential risk of renal stone development during spaceflight. METHOD: We used a large database of urinary risk factors obtained from 323 astronauts before and after spaceflight to generate a mathematical model with which to predict the urinary supersaturation of calcium stone forming salts. RESULT: This model, which involves the fewest possible analytical variables (urinary calcium, citrate, oxalate, phosphorus, and total volume), reliably and accurately predicted the urinary supersaturation of the calcium stone forming salts when compared to results obtained from a group of 6 astronauts who collected urine during flight. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this model will simplify both routine medical monitoring during spaceflight as well as the evaluation of countermeasures designed to minimize renal stone development. This model also can be used for Earth-based applications in which access to analytical resources is limited.

NASA Center JSC↗

Overview of NASA's Integrated Design and Engineering Analysis (IDEA)Environment

Historically, the design of subsonic and supersonic aircraft has been divided into separate technical disciplines (such as propulsion, aerodynamics and structures) each of which performs their design and analysis in relative isolation from others. This is possible in most cases either because the amount of interdisciplinary coupling is minimal or because the interactions can be treated as linear. The design of hypersonic airbreathing vehicles, like NASA s X-43, is quite the opposite. Such systems are dominated by strong non-linear interactions between disciplines. The design of these systems demands that a multi-disciplinary approach be taken. Furthermore, increased analytical fidelity at the conceptual design phase is highly desirable as many of the non-linearities are not captured by lower fidelity tools. Only when these systems are designed from a true multi-disciplinary perspective can the real performance benefits be achieved and complete vehicle systems be fielded. Toward this end, the Vehicle Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center has been developing the Integrated Design & Engineering Analysis (IDEA) Environment. IDEA is a collaborative environment for parametrically modeling conceptual and preliminary launch vehicle configurations using the Adaptive Modeling Language (AML) as the underlying framework. The environment integrates geometry, configuration, propulsion, aerodynamics, aerothermodynamics, trajectory, closure and structural analysis into a generative, parametric, unified computational model where data is shared seamlessly between the different disciplines. Plans are also in place to incorporate life cycle analysis tools into the environment which will estimate vehicle operability, reliability and cost. IDEA is currently being funded by NASA s Hypersonics Project, a part of the Fundamental Aeronautics Program within the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. The environment is currently focused around a two-stage-to-orbit configuration with a turbine based combined cycle (TBCC) first stage and reusable rocket second stage. This paper provides an overview of the development of the IDEA environment, a description of the current status and detail of future plans.

Robinson, Jeffrey S.↗

Modeling Entry Systems to Explore Our Solar System

Exploration of our Solar System is a foundational element of NASA’s identity. Delivering a scientific payload through an atmosphere to the surface of a planetary body requires safely navigating the extreme temperatures and stresses generated by flying many times the speed of sound. An entry system is the outer shell of a vehicle designed to protect the payload and, as a single point of failure for a mission, reliability is paramount. Unfortunately, it is not possible to fully replicate the flight environment in ground test facilities – so how do we confidently design a vehicle that needs to work the first time, every time? Modeling and simulation are critical tools for filling gaps in ground test capability and providing traceability from ground to flight. Modeling an entry system is a truly interdisciplinary effort, requiring knowledge of fluid dynamics, high-temperature chemistry, radiation, materials science, structural dynamics, guidance and control – and, finally, the mathematical and computing capability to pull it all together. In this talk, Dr. Michael Barnhardt will discuss the latest research in modeling entry systems and how it is being used in NASA’s exploration missions.

Entry systems↗

Deep Space Network Scheduling Using Multi-Objective Optimization with Uncertainty

We have developed a novel technique to incorporate uncertainty modeling within an evolutionary algorithm approach to multi-objective scheduling, with the goal of identifying a Pareto frontier (tradeoff curve) that recognizes the likelihood of events that can impact the schedule outcome. Our approach is particularly applicable to the generation of multiobjective optimized robust schedules, where objectives are assigned a service level, for example that we require an objective value to be greater than or equal to X with Y% confidence. We have demonstrated that such an approach can, for example, minimize scheduling on less reliable resources, based solely on a resource reliability model and not on any ad hoc heuristics. We have also investigated an alternative method of optimizing for robustness, in which we add to the set of objectives a failure risk objective to minimize. We compare the advantages and disadvantages of these two approaches. Future plans for further developing this technology include its application to space-based observatory scheduling problems.

Johnston, Mark D.↗

On the Origin of Holes During Polarization Reset in Floating Body Ferroelectric FETs Towards Improving Switching Efficiency

In this article, we performed a comprehensive combined experimental and modeling study on the polarization reset mechanisms of floating body (i.e., channel) ferroelectric FETs, an important class of device with growing interests due to added functionalities and improved reliabilities. Using fully-depleted silicon-on-insulator (FDSOI) FeFET as a classical example, we demonstrate that: 1) without hole generation mechanisms, floating body FeFETs during reset is simply a capacitor divider, with negligible ferroelectric voltage drop for switching; ii) Band-to-band-tunneling (BTBT) around gate-to-S/D overlap even with zero drain bias generates holes to facilitate the reset in FDSOI FeFET, though at a slower speed and hold the reset state; iii) With scaling, S/D inner fringe field can enable fast reset, thus offering a potential efficiency boost approach; iv) a compact FDSOI FeFET model is developed that can capture the BTBT effect and reproduce the observed behaviors; v) the reset mechanism is also validated in a NAND string composed of FDSOI FeFETs, demonstrating its relevant applications. These insights show the strategies in improving reset efficiency, i.e., enhanced BTBT and inner fringe field.

42 ENGINEERING↗