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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Accuracy of Aerodynamic Model Parameters Estimated from Flight Test Data

An important put of building mathematical models based on measured date is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of this accuracy, the parameter estimates themselves have limited value. An expression is developed for computing quantitatively correct parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood parameter estimates when the output residuals are colored. This result is important because experience in analyzing flight test data reveals that the output residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Monte Carlo simulation runs were used to show that parameter accuracy measures from the new technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for correction factors or frequency domain analysis of the output residuals. The technique was applied to flight test data from repeated maneuvers flown on the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle. As in the simulated cases, parameter accuracy measures from the new technique were in agreement with the scatter in the parameter estimates from repeated maneuvers, whereas conventional parameter accuracy measures were optimistic.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Determining the Accuracy of Aerodynamic Model Parameters Estimated from Flight Test Data

An important part of building mathematical models based on measured data is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of this accuracy, the parameter estimates themselves have limited value. In this work, an expression for computing quantitatively correct parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood parameter estimates with colored residuals is developed and validated. This result is important because experience in analyzing flight test data reveals that the output residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Monte Carlo simulation runs were used to show that parameter accuracy measures from the new technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for correction factors or frequency domain analysis of the output residuals. The technique was applied to flight test data from repeated maneuvers flown on the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV). As in the simulated cases, parameter accuracy measures from the new technique were in agreement with the scatter in the parameter estimates from repeated maneuvers, while conventional parameter accuracy measures were optimistic.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

OC6 Phase Ia Definition Document: Validation of Nonlinear Hydrodynamic Loading on the DeepCwind Semisubmersible

The objective of OC6 Phase I is to investigate the persistent under-prediction (about 20% on average) of the structural loads in the OC5-DeepCwind floating semisubmersible wind system, as observed within the previous OC5 Phase II project. The OC5 results indicate that much of this under-prediction originates from the low-frequency response of the system at the surge/pitch natural frequencies, resulting from nonlinear hydrodynamic loading and/or overprediction of hydrodynamic damping. This work package therefore focuses on better understanding this low-frequency response behavior, the applicability of computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) models and engineering-level hydrodynamic models for predicting the nonlinear hydrodynamic loading, and the level of uncertainty in the measured response characteristics. To address these objectives, two experimental campaigns were developed and performed in 2017 and 2018 by a sub-group of the OC5 project: Floating test campaign: A simplified OC5-DeepCwind semisubmersible model (no turbine, rigid tower) was moored to three taut-spring lines and subjected to motion decay and wave tests (regular and irregular waves), during which motion amplitudes of the model were measured (see Figure 1a). The purpose of this test campaign was to examine the repeatability of the low-frequency response of the system to wave excitation and determine the level of uncertainty in the response behavior.Constrained test campaign: The same model, but without the tower present, was fixed to a carriage and subjected to towing, forced oscillation and wave tests (regular and irregular waves), during which forces exerted upon the model were measured (see Figure 1b). The purpose of this test campaign was to examine the hydrodynamic loading contributions by separating the wave excitation and radiation forces. Both model test campaigns were performed in the concept basin of the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands (MARIN) in Wageningen, the Netherlands and the first test was within the framework of the MARINET2 project. Both experimental campaigns were examined within Phase Ia of the OC6 project. The purpose of this report is to supply the needed information to participants of the OC6 project to build and simulate the experimental campaigns.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Crustal deformation in great California earthquake cycles

Periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike slip earthquakes is computed for the following model: A depth L (less than or similiar to H) extending downward from the Earth's surface at a transform boundary between uniform elastic lithospheric plates of thickness H is locked between earthquakes. It slips an amount consistent with remote plate velocity V sub pl after each lapse of earthquake cycle time T sub cy. Lower portions of the fault zone at the boundary slip continuously so as to maintain constant resistive shear stress. The plates are coupled at their base to a Maxwellian viscoelastic asthenosphere through which steady deep seated mantle motions, compatible with plate velocity, are transmitted to the surface plates. The coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model. It is argued that the model gives a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading, including the time dependence of deep slip and crustal stress build up throughout the earthquake cycle, than do simpler kinematic models in which loading is represented as imposed uniform dislocation slip on the fault below the locked zone.

Li, Victor C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

LDRD Abbreviated report: High-Order General-Discrete-Ordinates Method Enabling Efficient Deterministic Transport in Hydrodynamic Simulations

Deterministic transport simulations for national-security and energy applications often operate in high-dimensional phase-space, where accuracy and cost both become major challenges. A common numerical artifact in such problems is the “ray-effect,” which appears as unphysical streaks. Beyond misinterpretation, these artifacts can contaminate tightly coupled physics, such as fluid dynamics, radiation-hydrodynamics, and laser-plasma interactions, eroding the predictive capability of entire multiphysics workflows. Our objective was to make high-dimension studies practical on modern hardware while mitigating the ray-effect without relying on prohibitively expensive sampling approaches such as Monte Carlo methods. We developed the Generic Discretization Library (GenDiL), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-first framework that uses high-order Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods and matrix-free algorithms to reduce memory usage and improve computational efficiency, critical for phase-space simulations. GenDiL supports phase-space adaptivity in both mesh size and polynomial order (hp-adaptivity) to place resolution only where it is needed. A central capability is Local Dimensional Refinement (LDR), which couples lower-dimension continuum models to higher-dimension kinetic models through stable and conservative interfaces, so that high-fidelity physics is applied only in regions where it is essential. Building on the GenDiL framework, we developed the General SN (GSN) family of algorithms as a true generalization of the polar SN approach (discrete ordinates, often denoted SN). Rather than tying discrete ordinates to a specific polar change of coordinates, GSN formulates transport on an arbitrary change of coordinates chosen to reduce ray-effect. We studied two complementary variants: an analytic variant, where the coordinate map is prescribed in advance by a closed-form function; and a data-driven variant, where a quantity of interest, such as the net flux, guides the coordinate system. GenDiL provides the library infrastructure for efficient GPU execution, but the GSN concept is algorithmic and independent of any one library. Across representative high-dimension tests, including non-symmetric solutions, both variants delivered strong ray-effect mitigation at practical cost, moving four- to six-dimensional analysis toward repeatable, routine studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Comparison of CFD Predictions of the TCA Baseline

The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) comparisons being presented are compared to each other and to wind tunnel (WT) data on the baseline TCA. Some of the CFD computations were done prior to the tests and others later. Only force data (CL vs CD) from CFD will be presented as part of this report. The WT data presented comes from the testing of the baseline TCA in the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT), Test Section #2. There are 2 sets of wind tunnel data being presented: one from test 1671 of model 2a (flapped wing) and the other from test 1679 of model 2b (solid wing). Most of the plots show only one run from each of the WT tests per configuration. But many repeat runs were taken during the tests. The WT repeat runs showed an uncertainty in the drag of +/- 0.5 count. There were times when the uncertainty in drag was better, +/- 0.25 count. Test 1671 data was of forces and pressures measured from model 2a. The wing had cutouts for installing various leading and trailing edge flaps at lower Mach numbers. The internal duct of the nacelles are not designed and fabricated as defined in the outer mold lines (OML) iges file. The internal duct was fabricated such that a linear transition occurs from the inlet to exhaust. Whereas, the iges definition has a constant area internal duct that quickly transitions from the inlet to exhaust cross sectional shape. The nacelle internal duct was fabricated, the way described, to save time and money. The variation in the cross sectional area is less than 1% from the iges definition. The nacelles were also installed with and without fairings. Fairings are defined as the build up of the nacelles on the upper wing surface so that the nacelles poke through the upper surface as defined in the OML iges file. Test 1679 data was of forces measured from model 2a and 2b. The wing for model 2b was a solid wing. The nacelles were built the same way as for model 2a, except for the nacelle base pressure installation. The nacelles were only tested with the fairings for model 2a and 2b during test 1679.

Cappuccio, Gelsomina↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of Charged Block Length Mismatch on Double Diblock Polyelectrolyte Complex Micelle Cores

Polyelectrolyte complex micelles are hydrophilic nanoparticles that self-assemble in aqueous environments due to associative microphase separation between oppositely charged blocky polyelectrolytes. In this work, we employ a suite of physical characterization tools to examine the effect of charged block length mismatch on the equilibrium structure of double diblock polyelectrolyte complex micelles (D-PCMs) by mixing a diverse library of peptide and synthetic charged-neutral block polyelectrolytes with a wide range of charged block lengths (25–200 units) and chemistries. Early work on D-PCMs suggested that this class of micelles can only be formed from blocky polyelectrolytes with identical charged block lengths, a phenomenon referred to as chain length recognition. Here, we use salt annealing to create PCMs at equilibrium, which shows that chain length recognition, a longstanding hurdle to repeatable self-assembly from mismatched polyelectrolytes, can be overcome. Interestingly, D-PCM structure–property relationships display a range of values that vary systematically with the charged block lengths and chemical identity of constituent polyelectrolyte pairings and cannot be described by generalizable scaling laws. We discuss the interdependent growth behavior of the radius, ionic pair aggregation number, and density in the micelle core for three chemically distinct diblock pairings and suggest a potential physical mechanism that leads to this unique behavior. By comparing the results of these D-PCMs to the scaling laws recently developed for single diblock polyelectrolyte complex micelles (S-PCMs: diblock + homopolymer), we observe that D-PCM design schemes reduce the size and aggregation number and restrict their growth to a function of charged block length relative to S-PCMs. Understanding these favorable attributes enables more predictive use of a wider array of charged molecular building blocks to anticipate and control macroscopic properties of micelles spanning countless storage and delivery applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Estimation by Scientific Data Mining with Classical Methods to Automate Learning Strategies of Scientists

Experimental results are often plotted as 2-dimensional graphical plots (aka graphs) in scientific domains depicting dependent versus independent variables to aid visual analysis of processes. Repeatedly performing laboratory experiments consumes significant time and resources, motivating the need for computational estimation. The goals are to estimate the graph obtained in an experiment given its input conditions, and to estimate the conditions that would lead to a desired graph. Existing estimation approaches often do not meet accuracy and efficiency needs of targeted applications. We develop a computational estimation approach called AutoDomainMine that integrates clustering and classification over complex scientific data in a framework so as to automate classical learning methods of scientists. Knowledge discovered thereby from a database of existing experiments serves as the basis for estimation. Challenges include preserving domain semantics in clustering, finding matching strategies in classification, striking a good balance between elaboration and conciseness while displaying estimation results based on needs of targeted users, and deriving objective measures to capture subjective user interests. These and other challenges are addressed in this work. The AutoDomainMine approach is used to build a computational estimation system, rigorously evaluated with real data in Materials Science. Our evaluation confirms that AutoDomainMine provides desired accuracy and efficiency in computational estimation. It is extendable to other science and engineering domains as proved by adaptation of its sub-processes within fields such as Bioinformatics and Nanotechnology.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2020

Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards

Civil infrastructure systems are subjected to multiple hazards, including natural and anthropogenic, that disrupt their function or the level of service offered. Estimating the function recovery of these systems (or how soon normalcy of operations will be restored) when subjected to repeated hazard events by considering the inter-event dependencies is an important problem in multihazard infrastructure resilience. However, this problem has been less addressed in the field. This paper proposes a series of semi-Markov processes model to capture the inter-event dependencies in infrastructure recovery when subjected to successive hazard events. Recovery after each new hazard event is represented by a unique semi-Markov process that models the reduced recovery rates and the increased recovery times caused by the system’s incomplete recovery from the preceding event. Two novel formulations of the inter-event dependency modeling, namely Maximal Effects Dependency (considers the worst impact of two successive hazard events) and Cumulative Effects Dependency (considers the aggregated impacts of two successive hazard events), are proposed and discussed. The model is demonstrated by considering the following applications: Three-state system subjected to deterministic and random occurrences of identical hazard events; and Multihazard resilience of a building in Charleston, SC, considering earthquake and hurricane hazards. Results indicate that considering inter-event dependencies in recovery modeling can lead to lesser-predicted resilience, thereby affecting resilience-based decision-making.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2017

Human Cargo Resupply Logistics at Mars Using 150kW SEP Tug Cyclers

The ultimate goal of the Evolvable Mars Campaign is to build up a sustainable outpost at Mars that would be continually staffed with rotating crews. During this stage of human Mars exploration, it would be necessary to provision the crews with equipment and supplies both before and during their missions. In this paper, we study the use of 150 kW reusable SEP tugs as a means to deliver elements both to orbit and to the surface. The SEP tugs would make use of technology currently being developed for the proposed Asteroid Robotic Redirect Mission (ARRM). They would also be used to deliver food and supplies to sustain the crews similar to resupply missions for the International Space Station. The SEP tugs envisioned would be staged at a quasi-stable Lunar Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO). The tugs would then mate with cargo vessels and xenon propellant being delivered by an SLS launch vehicle and continue on to Mars orbit where the cargo is delivered and the SEP tug returns to NRO to repeat the process. It was found that it is more efficient to deliver surface cargo via direct launch and entry versus using the tug cycler. Thousands of optimized low-thrust trajectories were simulated in order to create “Bacon plots” (like porkchop plots, but for low thrust transfers) in order to map out potential trajectories for dates from 2039 to 2052. This study maps out the buildup of a surface outpost as well as the necessary orbital and surface resupply launches in order to maintain it. In the steady state, a cadence of 9 cargo launches is required every 4 years to sustain the human outpost.

Post, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2007

Build-Up Approach to Updating the Mock Quiet Spike Beam Model

When a new aircraft is designed or a modification is done to an existing aircraft, the aeroelastic properties of the aircraft should be examined to ensure the aircraft is flight worthy. Evaluating the aeroelastic properties of a new or modified aircraft can include performing a variety of analyses, such as modal and flutter analyses. In order to produce accurate results from these analyses, it is imperative to work with finite element models (FEM) that have been validated by or correlated to ground vibration test (GVT) data, Updating an analytical model using measured data is a challenge in the area of structural dynamics. The analytical model update process encompasses a series of optimizations that match analytical frequencies and mode shapes to the measured modal characteristics of structure. In the past, the method used to update a model to test data was "trial and error." This is an inefficient method - running a modal analysis, comparing the analytical results to the GVT data, manually modifying one or more structural parameters (mass, CG, inertia, area, etc.), rerunning the analysis, and comparing the new analytical modal characteristics to the GVT modal data. If the match is close enough (close enough defined by analyst's updating requirements), then the updating process is completed. If the match does not meet updating-requirements, then the parameters are changed again and the process is repeated. Clearly, this manual optimization process is highly inefficient for large FEM's and/or a large number of structural parameters. NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) has developed, in-house, a Mode Matching Code that automates the above-mentioned optimization process, DFRC's in-house Mode Matching Code reads mode shapes and frequencies acquired from GVT to create the target model. It also reads the current analytical model, as we11 as the design variables and their upper and lower limits. It performs a modal analysis on this model and modifies it to create an updated model that has similar mode shapes and frequencies as those of the target model. The Mode Matching Code output frequencies and modal assurance criteria (MAC) values that allow for the quantified comparison of the updated model versus the target model. A recent application of this code is the F453 supersonic flight testing platform, NASA DFRC possesses a modified F-15B that is used as a test bed aircraft for supersonic flight experiments. Traditionally, the finite element model of the test article is generated. A GVT is done on the test article ta validate and update its FEM. This FEM is then mated to the F-15B model, which was correlated to GVT data in fall of 2004, A GVT is conducted with the test article mated to the aircraft, and this mated F-15B/ test article FEM is correlated to this final GVT.

Herrera, Claudia Y.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Polyimide-Foam/Aerogel Composites for Thermal Insulation

Composites of specific types of polymer foams and aerogel particles or blankets have been proposed to obtain thermal insulation performance superior to those of the neat polyimide foams. These composites have potential to also provide enhanced properties for vibration dampening or acoustic attenuation. The specific type of polymer foam is denoted "TEEK-H", signifying a series, denoted H, within a family of polyimide foams that were developed at NASA s Langley Research Center and are collectively denoted TEEK (an acronym of the inventors names). The specific types of aerogels include Nanogel aerogel particles from Cabot Corporation in Billerica, MA. and of Spaceloft aerogel blanket from Aspen Aerogels in Northborough, MA. The composites are inherently flame-retardant and exceptionally thermally stable. There are numerous potential uses for these composites, at temperatures from cryogenic to high temperatures, in diverse applications that include aerospace vehicles, aircraft, ocean vessels, buildings, and industrial process equipment. Some low-temperature applications, for example, include cryogenic storage and transfer or the transport of foods, medicines, and chemicals. Because of thermal cycling, aging, and weathering most polymer foams do not perform well at cryogenic temperatures and will undergo further cracking over time. The TEEK polyimides are among the few exceptions to this pattern, and the proposed composites are intended to have all the desirable properties of TEEK-H foams, plus improved thermal performance along with enhanced vibration or acoustic-attenuation performance. A composite panel as proposed would be fabricated by adding an appropriate amount of TEEK friable balloons into a mold to form a bottom layer. A piece of flexible aerogel blanket material, cut to the desired size and shape, would then be placed on the bottom TEEK layer and sandwiched between another top layer of polyimide friable balloons so that the aerogel blanket would become completely encased in an outer layer of TEEK friable balloons. Optionally, the process could be further repeated to produce multiple aerogel-blanket layers interspersed with and encased by TEEK friable balloons.

Williams, Martha↗
NASA NTRS2019

Mitigations to Reduce the Law of Unintended Consequences for Autonomy and Other Technological Advances

The United Nations states that Earth’s population is expected to reach just under 10 billion people (9.7) by the year 2050. To meet the demands of 10 billion people, governments, multinational corporations and global leaders are relying on autonomy and technological advances to augment and/or accommodate human efforts to meet the required needs of daily living. Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) gene-edited plants and cloning will be utilized to expand human food supply. Biomimetic implants are expected to improve life expectancy with 3D printed body parts. Human functioning will be extended with wearables and cybernetic implants continuing humanity’s path toward transhumanism. Families will be strengthened with 3 parent households. Disease will surely be eradicated using the CRISPR-CAS9 genetic engineering revolution to design out undesirable human traits and to design in new capabilities. With autonomous cars, trucks and buses on our roads and on-demand autonomous aircraft delivering pizzas, medical prescriptions and groceries in the air and multi-planet vehicles traversing space, utopia will finally arrive! Or will it? All of these powerful, man-made, technological systems will experience unintended consequences with certainty. Instead of over-reacting with hysteria and fear, we should be seeking answers to the following questions - “What skills are required to architect socially-healthy technological systems for 2050?” “What mindsets should we embody to ameliorate hubris syndrome and to build our future technological systems with deliberation, soberness and social responsibility?”

Morris, A. Terry↗
NASA NTRS2007

Revitalization of Space-Related Human Factors, Environmental and Habitability Data

The NASA Chief Health and Medical Officer (CHMO) recently directed that the agency establish crew health standards to aid in the development of requirements for future vehicles and habitats. Response to this direction includes development of a new NASA habitability and human factors standard and an accompanying design handbook. The new standard contains high-level, over-arching principles to assure its applicability and usability across all NASA development programs. The handbook will provide detailed design requirements and suggestions that will meet the standards. The information contained in NASA-STD-3000 will be updated and included in the new design handbook. In this approach, each new program will derive detailed program-specific requirements from the new standard using the handbook as a design guide and resource. With the completion of the standard, the focus of this year s effort is the development of the new handbook: Human Integration Design Handbook (HIDH). This is an opportunity for the space flight human factors and habitability community to consolidate up-to-date data for use by NASA programs and designers as well as outside researchers and policy makers looking for the next research focus. The goal of the handbook is to help NASA design and build human space flight systems which accommodate the capabilities and limitations of the crew so as to provide an environment where the crew can live and work effectively, safely, and comfortably. Handbook contents will address that primary goal, addressing unique aspects of space flight and habitation, including reduced gravity conditions, time lags, EVA systems and day/night cycles, not addressed in other standards or handbooks. The handbook will be divided into topics similar to NASA-STD-3000 (anthropometrics, architecture, workstations, etc.) and each topic area will contain elements for designers, human factors practitioners, program managers, operators, and researchers. The handbook will include the following elements: (1) Design considerations include a clear and concise summary of what is important to designers in space vehicle / habitat design, design information to translate Earth-base knowledge to the space environment, space issues and the data necessary to address those issues, and a consistent set of terminology. (2) Updates to Lessons Learned and example solutions from Shuttle and Station program experience will provide historical examples to help prevent repeating mistakes or reinvention of the wheel. (3) Requirements will aid in the translation of standards into program specific requirements. The scope of included requirements will define the pool that each program needs to consider and tailor for their specific program. (4) Requirements rationale will help understanding of the importance of these considerations. The HIDH development team at JSC is finalizing the format of the new handbook, prioritizing topic areas for expansion and update, and contacting subject matter experts within the scientific community to assist with this effort. Plans are also being made to continue handbook expansion and maintenance to assure it remains a valuable resource for human factors and human space flight programs.

Russo, Dane↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

The added value of using regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale data from general circulation models (GCMs) has often been questioned and researched. Although several studies have used different methods to identify (and in some cases quantify) the added value, there is still a need to find a general metric that quantifies the added value of any variable. This paper builds on past studies to propose a new metric of added value in the simulation of present-day climate which measures the difference in the probability density functions (PDFs) at each grid-cell between a model and an observation source, and then compares the results of the RCM and GCM in order to spatially compute the added value index. The same method is also adapted to quantify the climate change downscaling signal in a way that is consistent with the present-day metric. These new metrics are tested on the daily precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE projection ensembles and reveal an overall positive added value of RCMs, especially at the tail-end of the distribution. Higher added value is obtained in areas of complex topography and coast-lines, as well as in tropical regions. Areas with large added value in present-day climate are consistent with areas of significant climate change downscaling signal in the RCP 8.5 far future simulations, and when the analysis is repeated at a low-resolution. The use of different resolution observations shows that the added value tends to decrease when models are compared to low-resolution observation datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effectiveness and predictability of in-network storage cache for Scientific Workflows

Large scientific collaborations often have multiple scientists accessing the same set of files while doing different analyses, which create repeated accesses to the large amounts of shared data located far away. These data accesses have long latency due to distance and occupy the limited bandwidth available over the wide-area network. To reduce the wide-area network traffic and the data access latency, regional data storage caches have been installed as a new networking service. To study the effectiveness of such a cache system in scientific applications, we examine the Southern California Petabyte Scale Cache for a high-energy physics experiment. By examining about 3TB of operational logs, we show that this cache removed 67.6% of file requests from the wide-area network and reduced the traffic volume on wide-area network by 12. 3TB (or 35.4%) an average day. The reduction in the traffic volume (35.4%) is less than the reduction in file counts (67.6%) because the larger files are less likely to be reused. Due to this difference in data access patterns, the cache system has implemented a policy to avoid evicting smaller files when processing larger files. We also build a machine learning model to study the predictability of the cache behavior. Tests show that this model is able to accurately predict the cache accesses, cache misses, and network throughput, making the model useful for future studies on resource provisioning and planning.

Sim, Caitlin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lighting a Star on Earth—Again and Again

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) National Ignition Facility (NIF), scientists are learning what it takes to keep a fusion reaction burning. Their latest experiments, presented this week at the American Physical Society’s Division of Plasma Physics annual meeting, build on a series of successful ignition shots to reveal how capsule design and laser precision can sustain record-setting performance. At NIF, researchers are consistently producing plasmas dominated by self-heating from fusion reactions, achieving target gain greater than two — meaning the fusion output energy exceeds twice the energy used to initiate the reaction. Using the world’s most energetic laser to create these conditions, LLNL scientists can explore the detailed physics of ignition and burn that underpin the Laboratory’s stockpile modernization mission. “It’s a bit like lighting a campfire with a match and a single breath,” said LLNL physicist David Schlossberg, who is co-leading the work. “If you have too little fuel, it burns out quickly; too much, and it won’t light at all. We’ve found the balance between capsule mass and drive strength that starts the burn and keeps it going efficiently.” NIF is the only laboratory in the world to have achieved fusion ignition, a historic breakthrough first realized in December 2022. Since then, the facility has repeated ignition ten times, most recently in October 2025, demonstrating the robustness of the experimental platform and the reproducibility of ignition physics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2020

Risk and Performance Assessment of Generic Mission Architectures: Showcasing the Artemis Mission

A has initiated a strong push to return face. In this work, we astronaut assess performance and risk for proposed mission architectures using a new Mission Architecture Risk Assessment (MARA) tool. The MARA tool can produce statistics about the availability of components and overall performance of the mission considering potential failures of any of its components. In a Monte Carlo approach, the tool repeats the mission simulation multiple times while a random generator lets modules fail according to their failure rates. The results provide statistically meaningful insights into the overall performance of the chosen architecture. A given mission architecture can be freely replicated in the tool, with the mission timeline and basic characteristics of employed mission modules (habitats, rovers, power generation units, etc.) specified in a configuration file. Crucially, failure rates for each module need to be known or estimated. The tool performs an event-driven simulation of the mission and accounts for random failure events. Failed modules can be repaired, which takes crew time but restores operations. In addition to tracking individual modules, MARA can assess the availability of predefined functions throughout the mission. For instance, the function of resource collection would require a rover to collect the resources, a power generation unit to charge the rover, and a resource processing module. Together, the modules that are required for a given function are called a functional group. Similarly, we can assess how much crew time is available to achieve a mission benefit (e.g. research, building a base, etc) as opposed to spending crew time on repairs. Here we employ the method on the proposed NASA Artemis mission. Artemis aims to return United States astronauts to the lunar surface by 2024. Results provide insights into mission failure probabilities, up- and downtime for individual modules and crew-time resources spent on the repair of failed modules. The tool also allows us to tweak the mission architecture in order to find setups that produce more favorable mission performance. As such, the tool can be an aid in improving the mission architect abling cost-benefit analysis for mission improvement.

Rumpf, Clemens M.↗