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Results for “Resilience Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

ResDesign: Resilient by Design Platform for CPS Assessment and Validation

ResDesign project has developed integrated capabilities to help cyber physical system modelers and analysts to evaluate vulnerabilities and resilience of such systems using co-simulation-based attack testbed, graph-based visualization and monitoring tool, and Bayesian optimization-based co-design capability. The project demonstrates a collection of attack scenarios and use cases in an integrated software environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic-Phasor Model of Transformer Inrush Simulation for Unbalanced Distribution System

Abstract— Power system stability is a critical concern, with respect to the increasing distributed energy resources, microgrids, and emphasis on enhancing resiliency. For stability analysis and evaluation, modeling and simulation capabilities are important. In this paper, the authors’ previous work on modeling transformer inrush dynamics is improved with a new formulation of the key equation that converts the dynamic-phasor into real-time value. Simulation results in an electromechanical time-scale are compared with PSCAD results in an electromagnetic time-scale to demonstrate the improvement. The impact of simulation step size is discussed. A bug in PSCAD transformer setting that leads to incorrect magnetizing flux and current under Delta winding type is identified and reported. In addition, explanations and analysis are provided on two modeling techniques utilized since the previous work. This work is being incorporated into the next release of GridLAB-D. The improved transformer inrush calculation enables more accurate predictions of current amplitudes for analyzing the dynamics of distribution operation and control.

power transformers, power system simulation, satur↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Improvements in PV+Battery Modeling in NREL's System Advisor Model

This poster covers recent updates to the NREL System Advisor Model's battery model that can be coupled to the PV model to add value to both front of meter and behind the meter systems. Topics include new dispatch algorithms focusing on smoothing the output of a PV plant to meet ramp rate requirements and responding to price signals to maximize system revenue, validated battery lifetime models, grid outage simulations and resiliency metrics, and the new levelized cost of storage (LCOS) metric. We will also share preliminary results from NREL analysis projects using these features.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part II: Risk Assessment

This comprehensive report explores the intricate interplay through “sector coupling” between the Transportation Sector, Energy Sector, and the critical infrastructure challenges faced by the United States. Aligned with the ambitious federal goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the report analyzes the present vulnerabilities in the fossil fuel supply chain, highlighting instances where the dependence on this industry has been susceptible to local and global disruptions. With a focus on risk assessment, this report establishes a framework to compare the fossil fuel-based transportation sector with the burgeoning electrified sector, considering the evolving technologies in electric vehicles (EVs) and the nascent charging infrastructure. This study delves into the historical reliability of fossil fuel-based transportation and identifies opportunities for strengthening sector coupling between transportation and the electric sector. Assessments of the gasoline-diesel supply chain provide insights into both opportunities and threats, offering a roadmap for creating a more reliable and resilient electrified transportation system. We modeled sectoral coupling scenarios for the current internal combustion engine (ICE)-based and future EV-dominant landscapes, leveraging qualitative sector attributes to identify relative strengths and weaknesses in Part 1 of the report. In this report (Part 2) we continue to understand the role of the electricity sector on transportation and develop a semi-quantitative methodology is employed to evaluate and compare the risks associated with the fossil fueled and electric transportation sector during emergency scenarios, drawing from real-world events like hurricanes and geopolitical disruptions. Different operational scenarios for the fossil fuel and electrified sectors have been developed to understand the risks associated with them. This report concludes with recommendations for the architectural designs of electric charging infrastructure, underlining the need for informed decisions in the transition towards a sustainable and resilient transportation future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Widespread spring phenology effects on drought recovery of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems

The time required for an ecosystem to recover from severe drought is a key component of ecological resilience. The phenology effects on drought recovery are, however, poorly understood. These effects centre on how phenology variations impact biophysical feedbacks, vegetation growth and, ultimately, recovery itself. Using multiple remotely sensed datasets, we found that more than half of ecosystems in mid- and high-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere failed to recover from extreme droughts within a single growing season. Earlier spring phenology in the drought year slowed drought recovery when extreme droughts occurred in mid-growing season. Delayed spring phenology in the subsequent year slowed drought recovery for all vegetation types (with importance of spring phenology ranging from 46% to 58%). The phenology effects on drought recovery were comparable to or larger than other well-known postdrought climatic factors. These results strongly suggest that the interactions between vegetation phenology and drought must be incorporated into Earth system models to accurately quantify ecosystem resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Water-Power System Resilience Analysis in a Southeastern Idaho Irrigation District: Minidoka Case Study

This study investigates the joint water–power system resilience of an irrigation district in southeastern Idaho. Irrigation districts face difficulties in the delivery of water to farmers under drought conditions, during equipment failures, or unplanned infrastructure disruptions. The resilience of interconnected water and power systems can be better analyzed and understood through an integrated approach, using a model that connects the dependencies between the two halves of the system. Using a multi-agent system model capturing both water and power system components, as well as their linkages, we capture the interdependencies of these systems and highlight opportunities for improvement when faced with disruptions. Through simulation scenarios, we examine the system resilience using system performance, quantified as the percentage of met demand of the power and water system, when subjected to drought water year, an unforeseen water demand increase, power outage and dam failure. Scenario results indicate that the effects of low flow years are mostly felt in the power system; unexpected increases in water demand marginally impact irrigation system performance; dams and pumps present vulnerabilities of the system, causing substantial unmet demand during disruptions. Noting the interdependencies between the water–power system halves while leveraging an integrated simulation allows for an insightful analysis of the system impacts during disruptions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leveraging machine learning to improve understanding and predictability of weather/climate extremes and the resilience of human systems

Focal Area(s): Developing hybrid models for predicting weather/climate extremes at the intersection of the urban environment (focal area #2). Science Challenge: Limited by many sources of uncertainty, numerical models are unable to accurately simulate weather and climate processes and this problem is particularly acute for modeling extreme events, including hurricanes. Moreover, computational limits within these numerical models bound our ability to develop large ensembles to explore this uncertainty and the implications relative to characterization of risk and resilience within the human systems that are impacted by changes in extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Measuring the Resilience of Advanced Life Support Systems

Despite the central importance of crew safety in designing and operating a life support system, the metric commonly used to evaluate alternative Advanced Life Support (ALS) technologies does not currently provide explicit techniques for measuring safety. The resilience of a system, or the system s ability to meet performance requirements and recover from component-level faults, is fundamentally a dynamic property. This paper motivates the use of computer models as a tool to understand and improve system resilience throughout the design process. Extensive simulation of a hybrid computational model of a water revitalization subsystem (WRS) with probabilistic, component-level faults provides data about off-nominal behavior of the system. The data can then be used to test alternative measures of resilience as predictors of the system s ability to recover from component-level faults. A novel approach to measuring system resilience using a Markov chain model of performance data is also developed. Results emphasize that resilience depends on the complex interaction of faults, controls, and system dynamics, rather than on simple fault probabilities.

Bell, Ann Maria↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilient NdFeB magnet recycling under the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: Stochastic programming and Benders decomposition

Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are the most powerful magnets per unit volume sold in the commercial market. Despite the increasing demand for clean energy applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, disruptive events including the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant uncertainties in the supply and demand for NdFeB magnets. Therefore, this study aims to alleviate the risk of supply shortage for NdFeB magnets and the containing critical materials, rare-earth elements (REEs), through the development of a resilient reverse supply chain and logistics network design. We develop scenarios to model the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the proposed business, incorporating both disruption intensity and recovery rate. We formulate a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to maximize the profit while guaranteeing the network resiliency against disruption risks. To solve the problem in large-scale instances, we develop an efficient Benders decomposition algorithm that reduces the computational time by 98.5% on average compared to the default CPLEX algorithm. When applied to the United States, the model suggests the optimal facility locations, processing capacities, inventory levels, and material flows for NdFeB magnet recyclers that could meet 99.7% of the demand. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to design a resilient NdFeB magnet recycling supply chain and logistics network, leveraging risk-averse stochastic programming.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine

The paper focuses on Ukraine’s intention to achieve a two-thirds reduction in buildings’ energy consumption for heating and cooling by 2050, concurrently aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions and heightened energy security. Here, the study examines the outcomes of retrofitting existing residential, commercial, and public buildings with highly efficient materials, improving construction standards, and transitioning to advanced heating systems. However, Russia’s invasion in 2022 inflicted substantial damage, prompting a shift from retrofit and decarbonization to reconstruction. The Ukrainian government’s Reconstruction Plan emphasizes clean, sustainable, and resilient energy systems. The study employs energy system and integrated assessment models (TIMES-Ukraine and GCAM-Ukraine) to explore scenarios taking into consideration the war, reconstruction, and a net zero CO 2 pathway. Using two models allowed the inter-model comparison. The analysis addresses vital questions on energy resiliency measures and the compounding effects of decarbonization. Findings indicate that Ukraine’s energy goals can be met through strategic retrofitting and economy-wide decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon alternatives like district heating with renewable sources. Electrification with renewables and fuel-switching emerges as crucial for achieving building decarbonization. The study offers valuable insights into navigating energy challenges amidst the war and outlines a pathway for Ukraine’s sustainable energy future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Systems Modeling for Critical Infrastructure Predictions in Climate Change: A National Defense Framework

Any national defense is dependent on the efficacy of the available physical infrastructure. Whatever degrades infrastructure, structurally, physically, architecturally, or esthetically, is of interest to the nation. Climate change is now a major significant factor of interest impinging on national critical infrastructure. The devastating effects of climate change have increasing pervasiveness throughout the world. The impact on critical infrastructure is of particular interest to researchers. In consonance with ASCE-ASME's special issue on critical infrastructure protection and resilience, this paper presents a systems-modeling approach for critical infrastructure and predictions in relation to climate change agreements in COP26. The paper addresses high-level critical systems-based assessment of the social, legal, economic, and technical nuances impinging on the viability of COP26 agreements. The paper was written using a multinational collaboration approach. In conclusion, the specific focus of national defense is used as the backdrop for the methodology of the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency under drought stress: a case study of the Helan Mountain region, northwest China

Context Water use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental ecological indicator links carbon assimilation and water loss in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding its responses to drought stress is essential for adaptive ecosystem management, particularly in climate-sensitive mountain landscapes. Objectives This study aimed to investigate drought-driven variations in WUE across major vegetation types in the Helan Mountain region of Northwest China. Specifically, we sought to identify dominant ecological drivers of WUE variability and to disentangle their relative importance and causal pathways. Methods We quantified WUE using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and the Drought Severity Index (DSI) data from 2001 to 2020. To examine WUE – drought relationships across contrasting vegetation types, we employed a spatially explicit analytical framework integrating Random Forest (RF) modeling, partial correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results Regional WUE exhibited relatively stable interannual dynamics, yet pronounced spatial heterogeneity that was strongly modulated by drought conditions. Vegetation properties, particularly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emerged as the dominant determinants of WUE, with NDVI alone explaining over 20% of its spatial variance in forest and grassland during non-drought periods. SEM analyses revealed that climate forcing influenced WUE mainly through indirect pathways mediated by soil moisture availability and vegetation structural dynamics, rather than through direct climatic controls. Among all regulating factors, LAI acted as the central control node governing ecosystem carbon–water coupling. In contrast, short-term climatic stress, especially atmospheric demand and drought duration, exerted weak or negative direct effects on WUE. Ecosystem-specific responses were observed, with croplands mainly regulated by soil water availability, whereas forests and grasslands showed more sensitive to atmospheric drought stress. Together, these results reveal a hierarchical control framework where soil–vegetation interactions mediate climate impacts on WUE, driving strong spatial heterogeneity in drought responses across mountain landscapes. Conclusions Our findings highlight the pivotal role of indirect drought effects mediated by vegetation and soil processes in shaping ecosystem WUE. The identified soil–vegetation–climate regulatory hierarchy provides mechanistic insight into landscape–scale drought sensitivity and supports integrated modeling approaches for evaluating ecosystem resilience and sustainable management in arid mountain regions.

China↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing manufacturing sector disruptions with targeted mitigation strategies

It has become clear in recent decades that manufacturing supply chains are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions of varying geographical scales and intensities. These disruptions—whether intentional, accidental, or resulting from natural disasters—cause failures and capacity reductions to manufacturing infrastructure, with lasting effects that can cascade throughout the manufacturing network. An overall lack of understanding of solutions to mitigate disturbances has rendered the challenge of reducing manufacturing supply chain vulnerability even more difficult. Additionally, the variability of disruptions and their impacts complicates policy maker and stakeholder efforts to plan for specific disruptive scenarios. It is necessary to comprehend different kinds of disturbances and group them based on stakeholder-provided metrics to support planning processes and modeling efforts that promote adaptable, resilient manufacturing supply chains. This paper reviews existing methods for risk management in manufacturing supply chains and the economic and environmental impacts of disruptions. In addition, we develop a framework using agglomerative hierarchical clustering to classify disruptions using U.S. manufacturing network data between 2000 and 2021 and characteristic metrics defined in the literature. Our review identifies five groups of disruptions and discusses both general mitigation methods and strategies targeting each identified group. Further, we highlight gaps in the literature related to estimating and including environmental costs in disaster preparedness and mitigation planning. We also discuss the lack of easily available metrics to quantify environmental impacts of disruptions and how such metrics could be included into our methodology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Localized triplons and site stuffing in the quantum dimer magnet BiYbGeO5

Thermodynamic and muon spin relaxation measurements have recently highlighted BiYbGeO5 as a new example of a rare-earth-based quantum dimer magnet with isolated Yb3+ spin-1/2 dimers. However, direct spectroscopic evidence of the triplet excitations and measurements of the structural disorder are lacking. In this work, polycrystalline BiYbGeO5 was synthesized using conventional high-temperature solid-state methods and investigated via high-resolution neutron powder diffraction and inelastic neutron scattering. Diffraction measurements down to 58 mK reveal no signatures of magnetic order and indicate that nearly 20% of Yb3+ sites are replaced by nonmagnetic Bi3+, introducing significant structural disorder. Inelastic neutron scattering shows dispersionless triplon excitations, consistent with localized, noninteracting spin dimers. Fits to the triplet excitation spectrum with an XXZ-type anisotropic exchange give 𝐽XX=0.100⁢(1)⁢meV and 𝐽Z=0.202⁢(1)⁢meV. These findings establish BiYbGeO5 as a structurally disordered but magnetically well-isolated quantum dimer system, providing a model platform for studying the resilience of entangled spin states to site dilution.

Kapoor, Rachit [Brock University, Canada]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Artificial Intelligence for Digital Security and Protections

Proper functioning of nuclear power plants relies on a mix of well-regulated human and machine-driven workflows. This regulation supports nuclear safety through a series of processes and many of the tasks that support these processes have a repetitive nature that make artificial intelligence (AI) informed by machine learning (ML) a potential aid in a variety of tasks. AI is being evaluated for activities that include inspections, fuel processing, monitoring, and other activities. The introduction of any new technology presents a potential new attack vector. In the case of AI/ML, there are many attacks that have already been discovered and over time the attacks can be expected to follow the growth pattern observed in cyber security. While future planning is necessary, current efforts need to be established now to predict the threat emergence over the next year 10 years and mitigate potential threats. Based on these observations, AI/ML will need to become trustworthy, which corresponds to techniques and procedures that emphasize AI explainability along with resilience techniques to data, algorithms, models, and systems. This kind of system robustness is the foundation for defenses against AI/ML-specific attacks. Attempting to look forward and take a broad view of capabilities provides input to research roadmaps and the ability to distill vulnerabilities into specific use cases may provide greater assistance in understanding the technology benefits while introducing new risks. The impact of current and future AI in three areas—capabilities, challenges, and recovery strategies—represents an initial attempt at balancing both.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Concentrating Solar Weathering Apparatus for Experimental Validation of Multi-Modal Degradation Models

High-performance coatings for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) receivers are subjected to remarkable environmental stressors during normal operations. Applied to the receiver tubes, these coatings serve to maximize the solar absorptivity of the receiver, transferring as much heat as possible from the solar collectors into the heat-transfer fluid (HTF). The lifecycle of these coatings is not well-defined, and the harsh operational conditions make them difficult to test. NREL has designed, built, and tested an apparatus to expose these samples to design levels of environmental stress and well beyond, into accelerated and destructive conditions. The chamber is actively cooled, monitored, and has the capability to supply humidification for cycling tests, allowing us to test multi-modal degradation and failure conditions at high temperature, high flux, and high humidity conditions. These conditions can catalyze high-temperature oxidation, mechanical degradation, and other modes of absorptivity loss seen in selective solar receiver coatings. The experimental data can feed lifecycle models for expensive and necessarily resilient materials, offering insights to aid maintenance schedules, technoeconomic analysis, and material industry performance benchmarks. This presentation will demonstrate the apparatus design and performance, as well as initial results for aging on a selective receiver coating.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scalability of Real-time Distribution Models

This work will focus on developing the capabilities and validating the models for a sub transmission network with multiple feeders and microgrids. To achieve this scale of Hardware-in-the-loop (HitL) simulation, it is necessary to federate and collaborate. The work aims to design the large-scale feeder models to allow federation with complementary testbeds in the future. The feeder would be designed to be reconfigurable to put the system into a variety of modes. Aggregators models will be included in each distribution network’s federate to take control actions and interact with the management systems. Lastly, the feeder model will support large scale resilience studies involving complex Distributed Energy Resources (DER) controls, microgrid studies and emulation of complex data flows in future grid architectures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗