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DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal District Heating in the United States: 2021 Update

As of 2021, there are 23 geothermal district heating (GDH) systems in the United States. Most are over 30 years old. This paper presents an overview of GDH development in the United States and the performance of GDH systems over time. Calculations of the estimated levelized cost of heat (LCOH) for existing U.S. GDH systems were made using NREL's GEOPHIRES tool. Estimated LCOH for existing U.S. GDH systems ranges from $15 to $105/MWhth. This paper explores other factors in GDH development such as resource and system size, capacity factor, and the role of policy. U.S. GDH utilization and deployment are compared to worldwide trends. Results show that the market for GDH in the United States has been weak over the past 40 years due to the combination of inexpensive fossil fuel alternatives (mostly natural gas), lack of incentives focused on heating/cooling, and other factors. Future opportunities for increased GDH deployment in the United States related to increased demand for low-carbon heating and cooling solutions (driven by decarbonization goals in the residential, commercial and industrial heating/cooling sectors, and particularly aggressive ones on college campuses) are outlined. Lastly, this paper identifies policy mechanisms that have been implemented in other countries to incentivize GDH (such as financial incentives targeting GDH, geothermal risk reduction mechanisms, carbon prices benefiting low-carbon heat production, and others).

geothermal district heating↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional Assessment for the CO 2 Storage Potential in the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The report describes the regional analysis of the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) in Northern Michigan as part of the MRCSP programs Regional Assessment goals. The goal of this task was to perform an initial assessment of the geologic storage capacity and injectivity of the Northern Fairway of Michigan’s Niagaran Reef Trend. This was achieved through three main objectives: 1) development of a reef atlas, 2) understanding the regional trends in geology, and 3) estimating CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources. Data collected across multiple subtasks were integrated into a mappable database that could be accessed from many of the leading software. The reef atlas was used to map the reefs and associated characteristics across the entire NNPRT. Several methodologies were explored to estimate the CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources across the trend which included three scenarios: 1) storage only using fluid substitution and volumetric estimations, 2) CO 2 -EOR which applied proximity analysis concepts and measured performance metrics from the Core Energy reefs to predict performance at all oil reefs, and 3) enhanced storage scenario which combined CO 2 -EOR with fluid substitution to represent maximized storage after completion of CO 2 -EOR.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Impacts of CO 2 Reduction and Utilization Technologies on Regional Freshwater Resources

This work, a product of the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-supported multi-lab CO 2 Reduction and Upgrading for e-Fuels Consortium (CO 2 RUe), focuses on advanced research and development and cross-cutting evaluation of environmental, economic, and social sustainability for CO 2 reduction and upgrading for fuels and chemicals. The Consortium develops and de-risks advanced technologies that use renewable electricity to convert CO 2 into e-fuels and commodity chemicals. One key aspect of environmental sustainability consideration is water resources. This report summarizes a three-year study that analyzed the impacts of water consumption in select CO 2 reduction and utilization technologies in two future scenarios using a pair of water indices—water availability index and water stress footprint. The analyses also account for projected electricity grid mixes and their water withdrawal and water consumption demand in grid regions. The work identifies drivers, challenges, and critical areas in water sustainability, along with valuable insights into technological and regional factors. The study also explores the potential of using non-traditional water resources to reduce water stress and increase availability. These findings are intended to support industry stakeholders and BETO with the knowledge needed for informed decision-making, contributing to strategies to mitigate risks associated with the implementation of CO 2 utilization technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the Impacts of CO 2 Reduction and Utilization Technologies on Regional Freshwater Resources

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertain quantum computing futures and potential energy and physical resource impacts at scale

Considerable attention has recently focused on the vast energy and water demands of supercomputing, namely large-scale data centers that underpin artificial intelligence (AI), one of the great disruptors of contemporary society. Looking ahead some years from now, quantum computing is poised to disrupt established computing paradigms once again. Scientists and engineers are now working intensely to bring this century-old dream of physicists to fruition. Yet, as quantum computers begin to be integrated with classical supercomputing architectures, the implications for energy and physical resource use also need to be understood, especially how they compare to today’s AI data centers. These impacts have not yet been quantified by the research community – a notable gap in the literature, even if commercial-scale deployment of Quantum-Accelerated Computing Infrastructure (QuACI) is not expected for a few more years. This study is the first to conduct such an assessment. Using publicly available information from academic sources and private industry, we characterize multiple configurations of superconducting qubit-based, fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQC) that could plausibly be deployed at scale in the 2030s and into the 2040s. By parameterizing these FTQC systems at a process level, we conduct a prospective scenario analysis to quantify their energy and physical resource needs. While these estimates are uncertain, given the current state of quantum technologies and their unknown future trajectories, important insights can already be drawn. One key finding is that while the electricity needs for a fleet of FTQCs are within the bounds of previous modeling studies that have explored high electricity demand futures, the needs for certain physical resources, namely water and helium-3, could pose bottlenecks to QuACI scale-up.

Computing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Best Practices

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is a methodology that can improve success rates for geothermal exploration drilling, thus reducing the costs of geothermal projects while facilitating development in new areas. It was originally developed for the oil and gas industry, but has been adapted for discovering geothermal resources over the last decade. The geothermal PFA methodology involves systematically screening a set geographic area for promising qualities typically related to the presence of heat, permeability, and fluid. Successful application of PFA can identify hidden hydrothermal systems. From 2014 to 2021 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) supported the development of PFA for geothermal resources through awards to 11 research teams across the country. The goal of these projects was to advance and adapt PFA for geothermal exploration to produce regional-scale maps that reduce exploration uncertainty. This report is an outcome of the NREL-led PFA Retrospective project, which compiled, synthesized, analyzed the results of GTO's geothermal PFA program. Ultimately, we find that these projects greatly advanced approaches to geothermal exploration and resulted in extensive new data and new discoveries of unrecognized geothermal systems. We used the results to distill best practices in this report and to provide guidance for future applications of geothermal PFA.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mineral Protection and Resource Limitations Combine to Explain Profile-Scale Soil Carbon Persistence

The fate of soil carbon (C) is largely controlled by microbial oxidation of organic matter (OM), which is constrained by a variety of mechanisms. OM association with soil minerals provides pronounced protection against microbial decomposition. However, factors such as climate, occlusion, and resource limitations also contribute to OM preservation. Here, we explore the factors explaining C distribution and age within an upland rainforest soil in Hawai'i, a site with abundant preferential flow paths (PFPs) and high short-range order (SRO) mineral content. We characterized lateral and vertical changes in Δ 14 C, SRO mineral content, C-functional group chemistry, and microbial community composition to elucidate the contributions of multiple protection mechanisms to OM preservation. Consistent with our expectation, SRO mineral content and Δ 14 C were strongly correlated (R 2 = 0.95), indicating strong mineral protection of OM throughout the profile. Surprisingly, distance from PFP was also a significant predictor of Δ 14 C and improved model fit, particularly in the shallow horizons (R 2 = 0.97). Elevated C/N ratios, decreased microbial abundance, and greater SRO mineral content suggest nitrogen limitations and enhanced mineral protection constrain OM turnover with distance from PFPs in deep, subsurface mineral horizons. Steady microbial abundance, increasing putative anaerobe abundance, and changes in C-functional group chemistry indicate oxygen limitations constrain OM turnover in the matrix of shallow mineral horizons. Given that oxygen and nutrient limitations contribute to OM preservation in this high SRO system—an exemplar of mineral protection—resource limitations may play an even more important role in OM preservation in other well-structured soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Price Formation Efforts Considering High Renewable Penetration Levels and System Resource Adequacy Targets

Future markets with very high penetrations of renewable energy could have many low- to zero-cost periods, which would reduce energy revenues for the generation fleet. This can impact the ability of resources that are needed for long-term reliability to recover operating and capital costs. This paper explores the impact of an alternative pricing mechanism, relaxed minimum pricing, on revenue sufficiency on existing and future resource mixes, including those with high penetrations of wind and solar. This study evaluates eight scenarios encompassing three different sensitivity categories: (1) one alternative pricing mechanism versus traditional LMP pricing, (2) high versus low renewable penetration levels, and (3) using a resource mix that has been adjusted to a preset resource adequacy target versus one that contains a full set of resources. Results show renewable penetration has a greater impact on pricing and resulting profits than does the adjusted resource mix, the two pricing methods have modest variations in profits, and prices under the higher renewable penetration case were higher than under low renewable penetration. These conclusions are not intended to be direct predictions for future outcomes but rather to lead to additional research on the impacts of pricing on investment incentives and future resource adequacy targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Future Role of Hydropower in the Northeastern United States: May 2020-May 2022

This paper explores the future role of hydropower in the Northeastern US and beyond. The intent is to provide experience-based insights into how hydropower can best support the reliable and economic evolution of the New England power system and, more broadly, all US grids. Many of the challenges facing New England are driven by the potential integration of 10s of GWs of variable energy resources. Hydro can assist in remediating several issues, and the paper explores how Hydro might hit above its weight in a future low carbon New England system. Hydro can assist in handling periods of over generation, reduce the risk of curtailment of zero carbon resources, improve market efficiency, and provide valuable essential reliability services.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows (IPPD) (Final Report)

This report details the accomplishments from the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows” under the award numbers FWP-66406 and DE-SC0012630, with a focus on the UC San Diego (Award No. DE-SC0012630) part of the accomplishments. We refer to the project as IPPD. The main activities of IPPD were centered on the development and integration of provenance information to capture empirically workflow information and identify the sources of bottlenecks as well as variability, and modeling and simulation to provide insights and predictively explore multiple scenarios for development of advanced techniques for optimization of resources and workflow execution. After a Phase I of the project, a Phase II effort focused on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. The project leveraged and extended our existing tools with new research and demonstrated our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Locating Undocumented Wells Using Historical Oil and Gas Exploration Maps: A Case Study in Osage County, Oklahoma

Undocumented oil and gas wells lack reliable information about their locations and characteristics, making them difficult to identify. These wells can result in unanticipated delays and costs in the development of nearby surface and subsurface resources, and, if improperly plugged, can cause contamination. This study leverages historical petroleum exploration maps to locate such wells, focusing on Osage County, Oklahoma. Two sets of early 20th century oil and gas exploration maps by the United States Geological Survey were georeferenced and analyzed using a computer vision model to detect well symbols. The locations of detected wells were compared to the location of known wells in the database from the Bureau of Indian Affairs Osage Agency to identify potential undocumented wells. The analysis yielded over 500 potential undocumented wells, with dry holes constituting the largest fraction. Field verification confirmed the presence of some undocumented wells. Comparison with prior work revealed limited overlap, underscoring the complementary value of historical oil and gas maps for locating undocumented wells. This approach demonstrates the utility of integrating historical cartographic resources with modern geospatial and machine learning techniques to improve the identification and management of undocumented wells.

Energy - Petroleum↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electrolyte Design and Optimization for Alkali Metal‐Sulfur Batteries

Alkali metal-sulfur batteries, including lithium-sulfur (Li-S), sodium-sulfur (Na-S), and potassium-sulfur (K-S) systems, have garnered significant attention as promising electrochemical energy storage (EES) technologies. Among them, Li-S batteries stand out as strong contenders for next-generation energy storage, owing to their high energy density and the cost-effectiveness of sulfur-based cathodes. However, with the rapid technological advances and the escalating energy demand, lithium resources are becoming increasingly scarce, making it imperative to explore alternative metal anodes to replace lithium. Therefore, Na-S and K-S batteries, serving as counterparts to Li-S systems, are emerging as formidable contenders for next-generation energy storage technologies due to the abundant and cost-effective nature of sodium and potassium. Although Na-S and K-S batteries possess considerable potential in the energy sector, their development is still in its infancy, with performance constrained by the nascent state of electrolyte design and optimization. This review article provides a comprehensive overview of recent advancements and developments in liquid electrolytes for alkali metal-sulfur batteries. Additionally, it identifies key challenges and proposes future research directions aimed at enhancing electrolyte stability, optimizing interfacial compatibility, and improving the overall performance of alkali metal-sulfur batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Derivation and assessment of regional electricity generation emission factors in the USA

Electricity production is one of the largest sources of environmental emissions - especially greenhouse gases (GHGs) - in the USA. Emission factors (EFs) vary from region to region, which requires the use of spatially relevant EF data for electricity production while performing life cycle assessments (LCAs). Uncertainty information, which is sought by LCA practitioners, is rarely supplied with available life cycle inventories (LCIs). To address these challenges, we present a method for collecting data from different sources for electricity generation and environmental emissions; discuss the challenges involved in agglomerating such data; provide relevant suggestions and solutions to merge the information; and calculate EFs for electricity generation processes from various fuel sources for different spatial regions and spatial resolutions. The EFs from the US 2016 Electricity Life Cycle Inventory (eLCI) are analyzed and explored in this study. We also explore the method of uncertainty information derivation for the EFs. We explore the EFs from different technologies across Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) regions in the USA. We find that for certain eGRID regions, the same electricity production technology may have worse emissions. This may be a result of the age of the plants in the region, the quality of fuel used, or other underlying factors. Region-wise life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) ISO 14040 impacts for total generation mix activities provide an overview of the total sustainability profile of electricity production in a particular region, rather than only global warming potential (GWP). We also find that, for different LCIA impacts, several eGRID regions are consistently worse than the US average LCIA impact for every unit of electricity generated. Here this work describes the development of an electricity production LCI at different spatial resolutions by combining and harmonizing information from several databases. The inventory consists of emissions, fuel inputs, and electricity and steam outputs from different electricity production technologies located across various regions of the USA. This LCI for electricity production in the USA will prove to be an enormous resource for all LCA researchers - considering the detailed sources of the information and the breadth of emissions covered by it.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Resilient water infrastructure partnerships in institutionally complex systems face challenging supply and financial risk tradeoffs

Abstract As regions around the world invest billions in new infrastructure to overcome increasing water scarcity, better guidance is needed to facilitate cooperative planning and investment in institutionally complex and interconnected water supply systems. This work combines detailed water resource system ensemble modeling with multiobjective intelligent search to explore infrastructure investment partnership design in the context of ongoing canal rehabilitation and groundwater banking in California. Here we demonstrate that severe tradeoffs can emerge between conflicting goals related to water supply deliveries, partnership size, and the underlying financial risks associated with cooperative infrastructure investments. We show how hydroclimatic variability and institutional complexity can create significant uncertainty in realized water supply benefits and heterogeneity in partners’ financial risks that threaten infrastructure investment partnership viability. We demonstrate how multiobjective intelligent search can design partnerships with substantially higher water supply benefits and a fraction of the financial risk compared to status quo planning processes. This work has important implications globally for efforts to use cooperative infrastructure investments to enhance the climate resilience and financial stability of water supply systems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Potential Impact of River Chemistry on Arctic Coastal Production

The Arctic coastal margin receives a disproportionately large fraction of the global river discharge. The bio-geochemistry of the river water as it empties into the marine environment reflects inputs and processes that occur as the water travels from its headwaters. Climate-induced changes to Arctic vegetation and permafrost melt may impact river chemistry. Understanding the impact of river nutrients on coastal marine production, and how this may change in the future, are important for resource managers and community members who monitor and rely on coastal food resources. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model we explore the impact of timing and river nutrient concentrations on primary production in each coastal Arctic region and then assess how this influences secondary production and particle fluxes supporting the benthic food web. Our results indicate that while the concentration of Arctic river nitrogen can have a significant impact on annual average nitrogen and primary production in the coastal Arctic, with production increases of up to 20% in the river influenced interior Seas, the timing of the river nutrient inputs into the marine environment appears less important. Bloom timing and partitioning between small and large phytoplankton were minimally impacted by both river nutrient concentration and timing, suggesting that in general, coastal Arctic ecosystem dynamics will continue to be primarily driven by light availability, rather than nutrients. Under a doubling river nutrient scenario, the percentage increase in the POC flux to the benthos on river influenced Arctic coastal shelves was 2-4 times the percentage increase in primary production, suggesting changes to the river nutrient concentration has the potential to modify the Arctic food web structure and dynamics. Generally, the nutrient-induced changes to primary production were smaller than changes previously simulated in response to ice reduction and temperature increase. However, in the Laptev Sea, the production increase resulting from a doubling of river nutrients exceeded the production increase simulated with an atmospheric warming scenario. Dissolved organic carbon is presently poorly represented in the model so its impact on production is hard to simulate. Applying established relationships between modeled DOC, total DOC, and light absorption we illustrate that DOC could play a very important role in modulating production. Our findings highlight the importance of developing more realistic river nutrient and discharge forcing for Earth System Models such that their impact on the critical Arctic coastal domain can be more adequately resolved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linking Hydrobiogeochemical Processes and Management Techniques to Close Nutrient Loops in an Arid River

In this study, we explore opportunities to optimize food-energy-water (FEW) resources by closing nutrient loops in arid-land rivers. Specifically, we evaluate source and sink behavior of nitrogen as nitrate (NO 3 -N) in three characteristic channels in the Middle Rio Grande Basin (Delivery and Drain channels associated with agriculture and the main channel of the Rio Grande). All three channels are located downstream of a large wastewater treatment plant that is the main contributor of nutrients to this reach of the Rio Grande. We used a mass balance approach paired with stable isotope analysis to determine sources and processing of NO 3 -N within the channels over time (a year) and through space (along ~15 to 50 km reaches). Results indicated the growing season was an important period of sink behavior for the Delivery channel and the Rio Grande, but the Drain channel was a year-round source. Stable isotope analysis of 15 N and 18 O found a distinct nitrate signature in the Drain associated with biological processing, as well as Rio Grande sites impacted by agricultural outflow, but no equivalent signature was present in the Delivery channel. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations to help close nutrient loops in the study system and analogous aridland irrigation networks by 1) minimizing loss during the transfer of nutrients from wastewater facilities to agricultural areas, and 2) minimizing enrichment to downstream aquatic ecosystems by sequestering nutrients that escape the nutrient loop.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation water globally, with this role likely to grow as water demands and surface water variability increase. A better understanding of the future role of groundwater in meeting sectoral demands requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation of its cost and availability. Yet substantial gaps remain in our knowledge and modeling capabilities related to groundwater availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, and associated extraction costs, which are essential for large-scale analyses of integrated human–water system scenarios, particularly at the global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, a physics-based groundwater extraction and cost accounting model that operates at sub-annual temporal and at the coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution with global coverage. The model produces location-specific groundwater supply–cost curves that provide the levelized cost to access different quantities of available groundwater. The inputs to Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets of permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth to water table, recharge, and hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts for well capital and maintenance costs, as well as the energy costs required to lift water to the surface. The model employs a Theis-based scheme coupled with an amortization-based cost accounting formulation to simulate groundwater extraction and quantify the cost of groundwater pumping. The result is a spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based model that produces groundwater supply–cost curves. We show examples of these supply–cost curves and the insights that can be derived from them across a set of scenarios designed to explore model outcomes. The supply–cost curves produced by the model show that most (90 %) nonrenewable groundwater in storage globally is extractable at costs lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half of the volume remains extractable at under USD 0.108 m−3. The global unit cost is estimated to range from a minimum of USD 0.004 m−3 to a maximum of USD 3.971 m−3. We also demonstrate and discuss examples of how these cost curves could be used by linking Superwell's outputs with other models to explore coupled human–environmental system challenges, such as water resources planning and management, or broader analyses of multisectoral feedbacks.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Marine Fuel Innovation in the Great Lakes and St Lawrence Seaway

NLR collaborated with five Great Lakes ports to conduct analysis on potential risks and opportunities for making additional fuels available at their ports. The project included: Identifying existing and anticipated fuel production within the region; examining current port infrastructure and activities; exploring potential siting feasibility of additional energy infrastructure based on available area; introducing the Alternative Energy for Ports Explorer (APEX) tool to help ports understand existing energy resources and infrastructure. This presentation summarizes the work we did and our key findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗