Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Risk Assessment”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Getting to the Heart of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Astronauts for Exploration Class Missions

Since the beginning of manned spaceflight, NASA has recognized the potential risk of cardiovascular decrements due to stressors in the space environment. Of particular concern is the effect of space radiation on cardiovascular disease since astronauts will be exposed to higher levels of galactic cosmic rays outside the Earth's protective magnetosphere. To date, only a few studies have examined the effects of heavy ion radiation on cardiovascular disease, and at lower, space-relevant doses, the association between radiation exposure and cardiovascular pathology is more varied and unclear. Furthermore, other spaceflight conditions such as microgravity, circadian shifts, and confinement stress pose unique challenges in estimating the health risks that can be attributed to exposure to ionizing radiations. In this work, we review age, cause of mortality, and radiation exposure amongst early NASA astronauts in selection groups and discuss the limitations of assessing such a cohort when attempting to characterize the risk of space flight, including stressors such as space radiation and microgravity exposure, on cardiovascular health. METHODS: NASA astronauts in selection groups 1-7 were chosen and the comparison population was white men of the same birth cohort as drawn from data from the CDC Wonder Database and CDC National Center for Health Statistics Life Tables. Cause of death information was obtained from the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health program and deceased astronauts were classified based on ICD-10 codes: ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, cancer, acute occupational events, non-NASA accidents, and other/unknown. Expected years of life left and expected age at death were calculated for the cohort. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: There were 32 deaths in this early astronaut population, 12 of which were due to accidents or acute occupational events that impacted lifespan considerably. The average age at death from these causes is 30 years lower than the average expected ~70 years of age in the general population. Remarkably, all 41 living early astronauts outlived our calculated expected age at death for members of their birth cohort; furthermore, 13 of the 20 deceased astronauts who did not die in NASA/non-NASA accidents exceeded this age. There was no difference in IHD between the astronaut cohort and the comparison population; therefore, it is not possible to associate IHD mortality with radiation in that astronaut cohort. As NASA looks toward future exploration-class missions, early astronaut cohorts provide a convenient option for assessing these risks and for developing mitigation strategies. However, many challenges still exist when assessing such limited evidence, including small cohort size, health and lifestyle confounders (such as smoking and drinking), the high accident mortality rate, and the fact that many of these astronauts are still alive, outliving many of their birth-cohort peers. Future analysis should include a longitudinal study, monitoring cases as they occur in the cohort. As this cohort is currently followed-up over time, and as more IHD cases are anticipated in a population of this age, this type of study is not as resource-intensive as would normally be the case.

Elgart, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Rapidly Evolving Aerosol Emissions Are A Dangerous Omission From Near-Term Climate Risk Assessments

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols' climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols' complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society's ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

anthropogenic aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ensemble Methodologies for Astronaut Cancer Risk Assessment in the face of Large Uncertainties

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in a radiation quality parameter) as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms (e.g. combined dose-rate and radiation quality effects). Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future (including international) models, improve uncertainty quantification for underlying sub-models developed against sparse experimental data, and reduce the impact of subjective bias on risk projections. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met or the level of knowledge doesn’t permit a specific risk or exposure limit to be developed for future space exploration missions. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency as ensemble members are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible exposure limits and permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets; closer agreement is seen at the median + one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Future work, including the addition of new models and methods for statistical correlation between predictive members are discussed to define alternate ways of thinking about risk and ‘acceptable’ uncertainty with respect to NASA’s current permissible exposure limits.

space radiation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment for Combined Spaceflight Hazards: Evaluating the Impact of Short Sleep Durations on Space Crew Cardiovascular Health

Astronauts embarking on long-duration missions will be exposed to multiple spaceflight hazards including radiation, isolation and confinement, distance from Earth, hostile closed environments, and altered gravity. These hazards pose health risks to the crew in-mission and postflight, including risks to cardiovascular health. For radiation, quantitative risk models have been developed that are based on large-scale epidemiological evidence from exposed terrestrial populations, which are extrapolated to account for the difference in radiological effectiveness between ground-based and in-flight exposures. •Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are multifactorial, therefore multiple risk factors can influence disease risk estimates. •Astronauts with spaceflight experience is a very small population. •To overcome limitations of cohort, population data from presumed equivalent stressors on Earth can be used to quantitatively assess possible risks. •Sleep disruption and short sleep duration are known consequences of spaceflight and are also established risk factors for cardiovascular disease on earth (Pateletal.,2020). •Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), Myocardial Infarction (MI), and stroke are negative health effects due to short sleep durations and sleep disruptions (Yinetal.,2017); (Cappuccio et al., 2010). •A combined CVD risk model including spaceflight stressor such as sleep, stress, radiation, etc.) will provide more precise estimate of risks.

Spaceflight Hazards↗
NASA NTRS2019

In-Time Non-Participant Casualty Risk Assessment to Support Onboard Decision Making for Autonomous Unmanned Aircraft

Numerous operational paradigms, technologies, and missions are emerging as newcomers to the National Airspace System (NAS) develop small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS), personal air vehicles and other Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concepts. As the list of applications expands, maintaining the safety of the current airspace system remains one of the core concerns preventing widespread commercial implementation of these concepts. Further, the risks associated with unmanned aircraft operations themselves have to be recognized and mitigated in a timely manner. Safety-critical risks include, but are not limited to, flight outside of approved airspace, unsafe proximity to people or property, critical system failures, loss-of control, and cyber-security related risks. Instead of reacting to accidents, a set of predictive and data-driven risk monitoring, assessment, and mitigation capabilities are envisioned to help capture and eliminate hazards as these systems become operational. NASA’s System-wide Safety project is performing R&D on such a safety assurance concept. As part of this concept, this paper describes an architecture that continuously monitors a diverse set of onboard and ground-based sources to estimate and predict non-participant casualty risk during flight. Timely identification of the changing nature of this risk can inform decision making processes to mitigate current and impending situations.

Ancel, Ersin↗
NASA NTRS2011

Vehicle Shield Optimization and Risk Assessment of Future NEO Missions

Future human space missions target far destinations such as Near Earth Objects (NEO) or Mars that require extended stay in hostile radiation environments in deep space. The continuous assessment of exploration vehicles is needed to iteratively optimize the designs for shielding protection and calculating the risks associated with such long missions. We use a predictive software capability that calculates the risks to humans inside a spacecraft. The software uses the CAD software Pro/Engineer and Fishbowl tool kit to quantify the radiation shielding properties of the spacecraft geometry by calculating the areal density seen at a certain point, dose point, inside the spacecraft. The shielding results are used by NASA-developed software, BRYNTRN, to quantify the organ doses received in a human body located in the vehicle in a possible solar particle events (SPE) during such prolonged space missions. The organ doses are used to quantify the risks posed on the astronauts' health and life using NASA Space Cancer Model software. An illustration of the shielding optimization and risk calculation on an exploration vehicle design suitable for a NEO mission is provided in this study. The vehicle capsule is made of aluminum shell, airlock with hydrogen-rich carbon composite material end caps. The capsule contains sets of racks that surround a working and living area. A water shelter is provided in the middle of the vehicle to enhance the shielding in case of SPE. The mass distribution is optimized to minimize radiation hotspots and an assessment of the risks associated with a NEO mission is calculated.

Nounu, Hatem, N.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Stochastic Model of Space Radiation Transport as a Tool in the Development of Time-Dependent Risk Assessment

A new computer model, the GCR Event-based Risk Model code (GERMcode), was developed to describe biophysical events from high-energy protons and heavy ions that have been studied at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) [1] for the purpose of simulating space radiation biological effects. In the GERMcode, the biophysical description of the passage of heavy ions in tissue and shielding materials is made with a stochastic approach that includes both ion track structure and nuclear interactions. The GERMcode accounts for the major nuclear interaction processes of importance for describing heavy ion beams, including nuclear fragmentation, elastic scattering, and knockout-cascade processes by using the quantum multiple scattering fragmentation (QMSFRG) model [2]. The QMSFRG model has been shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental data for nuclear fragmentation cross sections

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Renal stone risk assessment during Space Shuttle flights

PURPOSE: The metabolic and environmental factors influencing renal stone formation before, during, and after Space Shuttle flights were assessed. We established the contributing roles of dietary factors in relationship to the urinary risk factors associated with renal stone formation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 24-hr. urine samples were collected prior to, during space flight, and following landing. Urinary and dietary factors associated with renal stone formation were analyzed and the relative urinary supersaturation of calcium oxalate, calcium phosphate (brushite), sodium urate, struvite and uric acid were calculated. RESULTS: Urinary composition changed during flight to favor the crystallization of calcium-forming salts. Factors that contributed to increased potential for stone formation during space flight were significant reductions in urinary pH and increases in urinary calcium. Urinary output and citrate, a potent inhibitor of calcium-containing stones, were slightly reduced during space flight. Dietary intakes were significantly reduced for a number of variables, including fluid, energy, protein, potassium, phosphorus and magnesium. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first in-flight characterization of the renal stone forming potential in astronauts. With the examination of urinary components and nutritional factors, it was possible to determine the factors that contributed to increased risk or protected from risk. In spite of the protective components, the negative contributions to renal stone risk predominated and resulted in a urinary environment that favored the supersaturation of stone-forming salts. Dietary and pharmacologic therapies need to be assessed to minimize the potential for renal stone formation in astronauts during/after space flight.

STS Shuttle Project↗
NASA NTRS2002

Cancer Risk Assessment for Space Radiation

Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. This is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within any given clinically normal individual. The radiation health research priorities for enabling long-duration human exploration of space were established in the 1996 NRC Report entitled "Radiation Hazards to Crews of Interplanetary Missions: Biological Issues and Research Strategies". This report emphasized that a 15-fold uncertainty in predicting radiation-induced cancer incidence must be reduced before NASA can commit humans to extended interplanetary missions. That report concluded that the great majority of this uncertainty is biologically based, while a minority is physically based due to uncertainties in radiation dosimetry and radiation transport codes. Since that report, the biologically based uncertainty has remained large, and the relatively small uncertainty associated with radiation dosimetry has increased due to the considerations raised by concepts of microdosimetry. In a practical sense, however, the additional uncertainties introduced by microdosimetry are encouraging since they are in a direction of lowered effective dose absorbed through infrequent interactions of any given cell with the high energy particle component of space radiation. The biological uncertainty in predicting cancer risk for space radiation derives from two primary facts. 1) One animal tumor study has been reported that includes a relevant spectrum of particle radiation energies, and that is the Harderian gland model in mice. Fact #1: Extension of cancer risk from animal models, and especially from a single study in an animal model, to humans is inherently uncertain. 2) One human database is predominantly used for assessing cancer risk caused by space radiation, and that is the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Fact #2: The atomic-bomb-survivor database, itself a remarkable achievement, contains uncertainties. These include the actual exposure to each individual, the radiation quality of that exposure, and the fact that the exposure was to acute doses of predominantly low-LET radiation, not to chronic exposures of high-LET radiation expected on long-duration interplanetary manned missions.

Richmond, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Astronaut Post Flight Bone Fracture

Introduction: Space flight potentially reduces the loading that bone can resist before fracture. This reduction in bone integrity may result from a combination of factors, the most common reported as reduction in astronaut BMD. Although evaluating the condition of bones continues to be a critical aspect of understanding space flight fracture risk, defining the loading regime, whether on earth, in microgravity, or in reduced gravity on a planetary surface, remains a significant component of estimating the fracture risks to astronauts. This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) to understanding pre-, post, and in mission astronaut bone fracture risk. The overview includes an assessment of contributing factors utilized in the BFxRM and illustrates how new information, such as biomechanics of space suit design or better understanding of post flight activities may influence astronaut fracture risk. Opportunities for the bone mineral research community to contribute to future model development are also discussed. Methods: To investigate the conditions in which spaceflight induced changes to bone plays a critical role in post-flight fracture probability, we implement a modified version of the NASA Bone Fracture Risk Model (BFxRM). Modifications included incorporation of variations in physiological characteristics, post-flight recovery rate, and variations in lateral fall conditions within the probabilistic simulation parameter space. The modeled fracture probability estimates for different loading scenarios at preflight and at 0 and 365 days post-flight time periods are compared. Results: For simple lateral side falls, mean post-flight fracture probability is elevated over mean preflight fracture probability due to spaceflight induced BMD loss and is not fully recovered at 365 days post-flight. In the case of more energetic falls, such as from elevated heights or with the addition of lateral movement, the contribution of space flight quality changes is much less clear, indicating more granular assessments, such as Finite Element modeling, may be needed to further assess the risks in these scenarios.

Risk Analysis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Ground Systems, Software and Operations Infrastructure Cloud Implementation

The growing number of large-scale constellations and the improvements made in the tracking and detection of resident space objects have contributed to the increase of satellite conjunction events. As a result of the increase of objects in Earth orbit, the timeline for risk analysis computations for satellite collision avoidance is more urgent when conjunctions occur. It is imperative NASA maintains a space environment safety functionality for the agency that allows CARA remote access to the ground system while maintaining redundancy. CARA’s On-premises (On-prem) ground system would no longer be able to meet these access and redundancy requirements, hence the investigation and eventual implementation of a Cloud-based ground station infrastructure as a viable solution. This paper will provide an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk analysis process used at CARA, summarize the key drivers towards the Cloud solution, and share key lessons learned that are significant for any operational entity considering a cloud solution for real-time satellite operations to ensure a sustainable space traffic environment for all.

Sustainability↗
NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport

Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is used for illustrative purposes.

Luxhoj, James T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Application of Probabilistic Methods to Assess Risk Due to Resonance in the Design of J-2X Rocket Engine Turbine Blades

The LOX-Hydrogen J-2X Rocket Engine, which is proposed for use as an upper-stage engine for numerous earth-to-orbit and heavy lift launch vehicle architectures, is presently in the design phase and will move shortly to the initial development test phase. Analysis of the design has revealed numerous potential resonance issues with hardware in the turbomachinery turbine-side flow-path. The analysis of the fuel pump turbine blades requires particular care because resonant failure of the blades, which are rotating in excess of 30,000 revolutions/minutes (RPM), could be catastrophic for the engine and the entire launch vehicle. This paper describes a series of probabilistic analyses performed to assess the risk of failure of the turbine blades due to resonant vibration during past and present test series. Some significant results are that the probability of failure during a single complete engine hot-fire test is low (~1%) because of the small likelihood of resonance, but that the probability increases to around 30% for a more focused turbomachinery-only test because all speeds will be ramped through and there is a greater likelihood of dwelling at more speeds. These risk calculations have been invaluable for use by program management in deciding if risk-reduction methods such as dampers are necessary immediately or if the test can be performed before the risk-reduction hardware is ready.

Brown, Andrew M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Single track effects, Biostack and risk assessment

The scientific career of Prof. Bucker has spanned a very exciting period in the fledgling science of Space Radiation Biology. The capability for placing biological objects in space was developed, and the methods for properly packaging, retrieving and analyzing them were worked out. Meaningful results on the effects of radiation were obtained for the first time. In fact, many of the successful techniques and methodologies for handling biological samples were developed in Prof. Bucker's laboratories, as attested by the extensive Biostack program. He was the first to suggest and successfully carry out experiments in space directly aimed at measuring effects of single tracks of high-energy heavy galactic cosmic rays by specifically identifying whether or not the object had been hit by a heavy particle track. Because the "hit" frequencies of heavy galactic cosmic rays to cell nuclei in the bodies of space travelers will be low, it is expected that any effects to humans on the cellular level will be dominated by single-track cell traversals. This includes the most important generally recognized late effect of space radiation exposure: radiation-induced cancer. This paper addresses the single-track nature of the space radiation environment, and points out the importance of single "hits" in the evaluation of radiation risk for long-term missions occurring outside the earth's magnetic field. A short review is made of biological objects found to show increased effects when "hit" by a single heavy charged-particle in space. A brief discussion is given of the most provocative results from the bacterial spore Bacillus subtilis: experimental evidence that tracks can affect biological systems at much larger distances from the trajectory than previously suspected, and that the resultant inactivation cross section in space calculated for this system is very large. When taken at face value, the implication of these results, when compared to those from experiments performed at ground-based accelerators with beams at low energies in the same LET range, is that high-energy particles can exert their influence a surprising distance from their trajectory and the inactivation cross sections are some 20 times larger than expected. Clearly, beams from high-energy heavy-ion accelerators should be used to confirm these results. For those end points that can also be caused by low-LET beams such as high-energy protons, it is important to measure their action cross sections as well. The ratio of the cross sections for a high-LET beam to that of a low-LET beam is an interesting experimental ratio and, we suggest, of more intrinsic interest than the RBE (Relative Biological Effectiveness). It is a measure of the "biological" importance of one particle type relative to another particle type. This ratio will be introduced and given the name RPPE (Relative Per Particle Effectiveness). Values of RPPE have appeared in the literature and will be discussed. A rather well-known value of this quantity (13,520) has been suggested for the RPPE of high-energy iron ions to high-energy protons. This value was suggested by Letaw et al. Nature 330, 709-710 (1987)] we will call it the Letaw limit. It will be discussed in terms of the importance of the heavy-ion component vs light-ion component of the galactic cosmic rays. It is also pointed out, however, that there may be unique effects from single tracks of heavy ions that do not occur from light-ion tracks. For such effects, the concepts of both RBE and RPPE lose their meaning.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗