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NASA NTRS2009

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Funk, Chris C.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Use of AIRS, OMI, MLS, and TES Data in Assessing Forest Ecosystem Exposure to Ozone

Ground-level ozone at high levels poses health threats to exposed flora and fauna, including negative impacts to human health. While concern is common regarding depletion of ozone in the stratosphere, portions of the urban and rural United States periodically have high ambient levels of tropospheric ozone on the ground. Ozone pollution can cause a variety of impacts to susceptible vegetation (e.g., Ponderosa and Jeffrey pine species in the southwestern United States), such as stunted growth, alteration of growth form, needle or leaf chlorosis, and impaired ability to withstand drought-induced water stress. In addition, Southern Californian forests with high ozone exposures have been recently subject to multiyear droughts that have led to extensive forest overstory mortality from insect outbreaks and increased incidence of wildfires. Residual forests in these impacted areas may be more vulnerable to high ozone exposures and to other forest threats than ever before. NASA sensors collect a wealth of atmospheric data that have been used recently for mapping and monitoring regional tropospheric ozone levels. AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder), OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder), and TES (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) data could be used to assess forest ecosystem exposure to ozone. Such NASA data hold promise for providing better or at least complementary synoptic information on ground-level ozone levels that Federal agency partners can use to assess forest health trends and to mitigate the threats as needed in compliance with Federal laws and mandates. NASA data products on ozone concentrations may be able to aid applications of DSTs (decision support tools) adopted by the USDA FS (U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service) and by the NPS (National Park Service), such as the Ozone Calculator, in which ground ozone estimates are employed to assess ozone impacts to forested vegetation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Mesoscale Analysis of Column-Integrated Aerosol Properties in Northern India During the TIGERZ 2008 Pre-Monsoon Period and a Comparison to MODIS Retrievals

The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) of the northern Indian subcontinent produces anthropogenic pollution from urban, industrial and rural combustion sources nearly continuously and is affected by convection-induced winds driving desert and alluvial dust into the atmosphere during the premonsoon period. Within the IGP, the NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) project initiated the TIGERZ measurement campaign in May 2008 with an intensive operational period from May 1 to June 23, 2008. Mesoscale spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD, tau) measurements at 500mn was assessed at sites around Kanpur, India, with averages ranging from 0.31 to 0.89 for spatial variability study (SVS) deployments. Sites located downwind from the city of Kanpur indicated slightly higher average aerosol optical depth (delta Tau(sub 500)=0.03-0.09). In addition, SVS AOD area-averages were compared to the long-tenn Kanpur AERONET site data: Four SVS area-averages were within +/- 1 cr of the climatological mean of the Kanpur site, while one SVS was within 2sigma below climatology. For a SVS case using AERONET inversions, the 440-870mn Angstrom exponent of approximately 0.38, the 440-870mn absorption Angstrom exponent (AAE) of 1.15-1.53, and the sphericity parameter near zero suggested the occurrence of large, strongly absorbing, non-spherical aerosols over Kanpur (e.g., mixed black carbon and dust) as well as stronger absorption downwind of Kanpur. Furthermore, the 3km and lOkm Terra and Aqua MODIS C005 aerosol retrieval algorithms at tau(sub 550) were compared to the TIGERZ data set. Although MODIS retrievals at higher quality levels were comparable to the MODIS retrieval uncertainty, the total number of MODIS matchups (N) were reduced with subsequent quality levels (N=25, QA>=0; N=9,QA>=l; N=6, QA>=2; N=1, QA=3) over Kanpur during the premonsoon primarily due to the semi-bright surface, complex aerosol mixture and cloud-contaminated pixels. The TIGERZ 2008 data set provided a unique opportunity to measure the spatial and temporal variations of aerosol loading in the IGP. The strong aerosol absorption derived from ground-based sun/sky radiometer measurements suggested the presence of a predominately black carbon and dust mixture during the pre-monsoon period. Consistent with the elevated heat-pump hypothesis, these absorbing aerosols found across Kanpur and the greater IGP region during the pre-monsoon period likely induced regional atmospheric warming, which lead to a more rapid advance of the southwest Asian monsoon and above normal precipitation over northern India in June 2008.

Giles, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Measurements of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) and peroxypropionyl nitrate (PPN) at selected urban, rural and remote sites

PAN and PPN were measured in a series of eight field studies performed at urban, rural and remote locations in the contiguous U.S. during 1983-1985. Seven of the eight studies were performed in the winter/spring period, a period of sparsely available data. Nearly 2000 air samples were analyzed during these studies. Mean PAN and PPN levels in the range of 45-1600 ppt (max. 7.9 ppb) and 5-230 ppt (max. 0.9 ppb), respectively, were measured. Despite a great deal of observed variability, PAN and PPN showed virtually identical behavior at all sites and in all seasons, supporting the view that these nitrogenous compounds are produced and destroyed by very similar mechanisms. On the average PPN concentrations were about 8 percent (range 3-14 percent) of PAN values. It is inferred that PPN/PAN ratio is highest in urban areas and declines as polluted air masses are transported over long distances.

Singh, Hanwant B.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Urban Environmental Monitoring/100 Cities Project: Legacy of the First Phase and Next Steps

The Urban Environmental Monitoring (UEM) project, now known as the 100 Cities Project, at Arizona State University (ASU) is a baseline effort to collect and analyze remotely sensed data for 100 urban centers worldwide. Our overarching goal is to use remote sensing technology to better understand the consequences of rapid urbanization through advanced biophysical measurements, classification methods, and modeling, which can then be used to inform public policy and planning. Urbanization represents one of the most significant alterations that humankind has made to the surface of the earth. In the early 20th century, there were less than 20 cities in the world with populations exceeding 1 million; today, there are more than 400. The consequences of urbanization include the transformation of land surfaces from undisturbed natural environments to land that supports different forms of human activity, including agriculture, residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure such as roads and other types of transportation. Each of these land transformations has impacted, to varying degrees, the local climatology, hydrology, geology, and biota that predate human settlement. It is essential that we document, to the best of our ability, the nature of land transformations and the consequences to the existing environment. The focus in the UEM project since its inception has been on rapid urbanization. Rapid urbanization is occurring in hundreds of cities worldwide as population increases and people migrate from rural communities to urban centers in search of employment and a better quality of life. The unintended consequences of rapid urbanization have the potential to cause serious harm to the environment, to human life, and to the resulting built environment because rapid development constrains and rushes decision making. Such rapid decision making can result in poor planning, ineffective policies, and decisions that harm the environment and the quality of human life. Slower, more thought-out, decision making could result in more favorable outcomes. The harm to the environment includes poor air quality, soil erosion, polluted rivers and aquifers, and loss of wildlife habitat. Human life is then threatened because of increased potential for disease spreading, human conflict, environmental hazards, and diminished quality of life. The built environment is potentially threatened when cities are built in areas that can be impacted by events such as hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, fires, and landslides. Our goals include assessing the threat of such events on cities and the people living there.

Stefanov, William L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monitoring Trends in Air Quality During a Drought: Case Study to Improve Public Health Response to Drought Threats

Drought has been an area of distinct concern in the Pacific Northwest since the mid-2010s. Recent studies have documented a correlation between air quality and drought in the United States, which is often observed in increased aerosols including airborne particulate matter (PM). This study partnered with the Oregon Health Authority and Washington State Department of Health to evaluate trends in air quality in the Pacific Northwest during the evolution of drought conditions using aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations collected by NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. These satellite data were analyzed in conjunction with ground-based PM2.5 and PM10 data sourced from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System’s network of ground-based monitors and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index drought index. Based on recommendations by local health departments, this study examined air quality trends between 2015 and 2022 in 12 counties within Oregon and Washington that reflected diversity in population density, drought exposure, rural and urban status, and data availability from EPA AQS monitors. The findings from this study provided supplemental information to the ongoing efforts by community health stakeholders to study the public health impacts of drought and support public health responses to future drought events.

Taylor West↗

NASA NTRS2010

Concentrations and Origins of Atmospheric Lead and Other Trace Species at a Rural Site in Northern China

In this study we analyze the ambient levels of lead and other trace species in the bulk aerosol samples from a rural site approx.70 km ESE of Beijing in spring 2005. Lead (0.28+/-0.24 micro-g/cu m, average +/- standard deviation), along with several pollution \related trace elements, was enriched by over 100 fold relative to the Earth's crust. The ambient lead levels showing large synoptic variations were well-correlated with other anthropogenic pollutants (e.g., CO and SO2). The Unmix receptor model resolved four factors in the aerosol composition data: a biomass burning source, an industrial and coal combustion source, a secondary aerosol source, and a dust source. The first three sources were strongest in weak southerly winds ahead of cold fronts, while the dust source peaked in strong northerly winds behind cold fronts. The second source, primarily representing emissions from industrial processes and relatively small \scale coal burning such as in home and institutional heating, was identified as the main source of ambient lead in this study. Mobile sources might also contribute to this factor, but there was no distinct evidence of emissions due to combustion of leaded gasoline, despite a correlation between lead and CO. Potential source contribution function, calculated from backward trajectories and aerosol composition, further reveals that lead observed in this study was predominantly from the populated and industrialized areas to the south and SW of Xianghe, rather than Beijing to the west. Our results and several recent studies show that the lead levels in suburban areas near big cities in China, although generally lower than those in industrial districts and urban areas, are substantial (near or above 0.15 micro-g/cu m). More extensive studies on airborne lead and its emission sources in China are called for.

Li, Can↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Centennial Challenges Deep Space Food Challenge Competition to Incentivize Innovation in Food Systems for Long-Duration Space Exploration Missions

The Centennial Challenges (CC) program, currently part of NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), is one of the vehicles NASA uses to develop and execute public prize competitions. Since opening its first challenge in 2005, the CC program has initiated more than 20 challenges in a variety of technology areas. This paper provides the background, development and execution of the Deep Space Food Challenge as one approach to fulfilling NASA’s Space Policy Directive 1 (“To the Moon, then Mars”). Specifics about the CC program’s accomplishments will also be discussed. The Deep Space Food Challenge (DSF) was developed in collaboration with the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) to create novel food production technologies with minimal inputs, and maximum safe, nutritious, palatable food outputs for long-duration space missions, which have potential to benefit people on Earth. When humans return to the lunar surface in the mid-2020s, the early missions will use prepackaged foods similar to those in use on the International Space Station (ISS) today. However, extending the duration of lunar missions requires reducing resupply dependency on Earth. Testing a sustainable system on the Moon that meets lunar crews’ needs is a fundamental step for lunar sustainability and future Mars exploration. NASA and CSA are focused on how to furnish crew members with a viable food system for long duration space missions that provides all daily nutritional needs through a variety of palatable, safe food with limited resource requirements and no dependency on resupply from Earth; and enables acceptable, safe and quick preparation methods. On Earth, technology solutions for food systems could also be used to produce nutritional sources for urban and rural environments; potentially leading to a reduced impact on our Earth’s resources. Challenges, such as the DSF, are an embodiment of NASA’s continuing commitment to technological advancement and innovation through non-traditional programs.

Centennial Challenges↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Potential of Medical Drones: An Analysis of Current and Future Use Cases

Modern Application of Medical-Based Drone Delivery Drones have been used advantageously by militaries for nearly a century, but their uses in civilian life are still mostly cutting-edge, if not theoretical. After a decade of bold proclamations, Amazon’s “PrimeAir” drone delivery system is still in the stage of “preparing” for deliveries, while the public awaits for start ups like SkyDrop (formerly Flirtey) to follow through on impressive promises. Despite the well-publicized disappointment so far in commercial drone delivery, medical drone delivery has already proven itself practical and cheap in several countries, and it promises to expand in the coming years. Drones are uniquely suited to make valuable and urgent deliveries to remote areas, quickly transporting medical supplies where road transportation is prohibitively slow or not available at all. Drones have been used notably to deliver AEDs for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, frequently beating first-responders to the scene; to deliver blood when there is none on hand at hospitals; to deliver vaccines to an island nation with little transportation infrastructure; and to respond flexibly to medical emergencies in a war zone. Economics make the delivery of food and other cheap goods by drone unattractive in the near-term, but the value and time-sensitivity of medical deliveries mean that drones are already saving lives in healthcare. “We believe the value of new technology is most valuable where it is clearly needed...that’s why we wanted to focus on drones delivering medicine and not delivering pizzas, ”said one executive of a drone system manufacturer. The immediate prospects for the expansion of medical drone use are many; however, they do not exist without their own drawbacks and challenges. Most obvious is the limited range of current commercially-available drones, most of which are isolated to a perimeter of roughly 18 miles. Technological know-how presents another barrier to integration of medical drones on a larger scale. Reports from the United Nations frequently cite a“skill deficit”—a prohibitively low number of qualified drone operators in low-and moderate-income countries (LMICs). Another perhaps more discreet speed bump in global drone development and usage are the various regulations on drone usage. Drone technology has developed so quickly that many states, out of an excess of caution, have nearly snuffed out the fledgling industry with regulation. There also exist significant concerns over the security of private citizens, the efficacy of medical deliveries, and the costs of drone operation. It is these last three barriers which this study will seek to overcome. Put simply, the prospect for human development in LMICs from drone-based medical delivery is far too great to disregard. As of 2020, 3.4 billion people live in rural communities, containing fewer than 5,000 people/km^2. Often lacking infrastructure, these communities are largely isolated from their more populated, urban counterparts. In drones lies the potential to reshape the geographic and developmental distinctions that divide the global population. This development must, therefore, begin first and foremost with advancement in regional well-being and life expectancy. Life expectancy makes up a key facet of human development. The United Nations relies on it as a key indicator of a state’s health. Lars Kunze of the Dortmund University Department of Economic sex plains this as a matter of physical capital accumulation. The longer people live, the more they save as opposed to spend. The more they save, the more which eventually gets invested in themselves and the community as a whole. In providing medical products via drone, it is the intention of this study to enable communities with the means and incentives for long-run savings and investment for future economic development. Through a close analysis of Vanuatu, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Ukraine—four states where drones are currently used to deliver medical supplies—this study develops a framework that LMICs in general and Mexico and particular can adopt and to use medical drones in difficult-to-reach communities for the sake of long-run human developmental initiatives.

Ryan Teoh↗