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At least 253 records · Page 14

A Strategy to Assess Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing of Climate Using Satellite Radiation Measurements

Atmospheric aerosols have a complex internal chemical composition and optical properties. Therefore it is difficult to model their impact on redistribution and absorption of solar radiation, and the consequent impact on atmospheric dynamics and climate. The use in climate models of isolated aerosol parameters retrieved from satellite data (e.g. optical thickness) may result in inconsistent calculations, if the model assumptions differ from these of the satellite retrieval schemes. Here we suggest a strategy to assess the direct impact of aerosol on the radiation budget at the top and bottom of the atmosphere using satellite and ground based measurements of the spectral solar radiation scattered by the aerosol. This method ensures consistent use of the satellite data and increases its accuracy. For Kaufman and Tanre: Strategy for aerosol direct forcing anthropogenic aerosol in the fine mode (e.g. biomass burning smoke and urban pollution) consistent use of satellite derived optical thickness can yield the aerosol impact on the spectral solar flux with accuracy an order of magnitude better than the optical thickness itself. For example, a simulated monthly average smoke optical thickness of 0.5 at 0.55 microns (forcing of 40-50 W/sq m) derived with an error of 20%, while the forcing can be measured directly with an error of only 0-2 W/sq m. Another example, the effect of large dust particles on reflection of solar flux can be derived three times better than retrievals of optical thickness. Since aerosol impacts not only the top of the atmosphere but also the surface irradiation, a combination of satellite and ground based measurements of the spectral flux, can be the most direct mechanism to evaluate the aerosol effect on climate and assimilate it in climate models. The strategy is applied to measurements from SCAR-B and the Tarfox experiments. In SCAR-B aircraft spectral data are used to derive the 24 hour radiative forcing of smoke at the top of the atmosphere of (Delta)F(sub 24hr)/(Delta)tau = - 25 +/- 5 W/sq m. Ground based data give forcing at the surface of (Delta)F(sub 24hr)/(Delta)taur = -80 +/- 5 W/sq m. In TARFOX a mixture of maritime and regional pollution aerosol resulted in a varied forcing at the top of the atmosphere, (Delta)F(sub 24hr)/(Delta)tau, between -26 W/sq 2 and -50 W/sq m depending on mixture of coarse and accumulation modes, for Angstrom exponents of 1.0 and 0.2 respectively.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

January-february Tropospheric Climate for the Northern Hemisphere and the 11-year Solar Cycle, the QBO and the Southern Oscillation

Examined here is a recently discovered association between the 11-year solar cycle and the atmosphere that is most easily detectable when the two phases of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) are considered individually rather than pooled. The influence of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for either of the two QBO phases is then combined with that of the solar cycle in the form of two-predictor multiple regression. The strong and well-defined relationship between the 11-year 10.7 cm solar flux cycle and the lower troposphere Northern Hemisphere January-February climate for QBO phase-stratified samples (van Loon and Labitzke 1988, Barnston and Livezey 1989) failed for the west QBO phase in 1989. Here, the opposing 1989 event is explained, at least in part, on the basis of the phase of the SO (the cold tropical Pacific SST event of 1988 to 1989). It is demonstrated that both the SO and the solar flux have moderate and quasi-independent correlations with the climate over certain regions, and where there is strong overlap they can work either in harmony or in opposition. In 1989 in North America the influences of the SO and the flux conflicted to an unprecedented extent, and the SO was the controlling influence in most regions of the continent (western Canada being one exception). The 1989 event draws attention to the smallness of the QBO phase-stratified samples and the still more serious holes in the two-dimensional sample space of flux and SO when both factors are viewed as predictors within one QBO phase.

Barnston, Anthony G.↗

Equatorial ionospheric absorption during half a solar cycle /1964-1970/

An extensive series of vertical incidence absorption measurements made at an equatorial station is analyzed in detail to provide information which will lead to a better understanding of the lower ionosphere. A quantitative empirical relationship is derived between absorption and 1-8 A solar flux for moderate levels of solar activity. It is shown that the threshold flux for D-region modification, at a solar zenith angle of 10 deg, is approximately 0.0005 erg per sq cm per sec. Attention is drawn to the incidence of days of high absorption even in the absence of solar X-ray activity. Available evidence points to variability of the order of 10-40 per cent in the intensity of the solar Lyman-alpha radiation as the most likely cause of these unusual, though infrequent, enhancements in absorption.

Gnanalingam, S.↗

Thermoplastic Space Point Design (TSPD) Tall Tower Lunar Thermal Analysis

The Thermoplastics Development for Exploration Applications (TDEA) project seeks to advance NASA’s thermoplastic composites capabilities by developing structurally efficient joining solutions for large-scale space structures to support NASA’s future exploration missions. A key objective is to develop and understand advanced thermoplastic joining techniques relevant to space environments and applicable to unitized and/or reconfigurable composite structures. The TDEA project uses NASA Langley’s Tall Lunar Tower (TLT) concept as a target application for the design and development of in-space assembled thermoplastic composites. TLT is a 50-meter-tall tower constructed on the lunar surface near the south pole. The tower’s height at this location on the moon allows for extended durations of incident solar flux which can be used to generate power via photovoltaic arrays. The thermal environment present on lunar south pole represents a challenging environment for any space-based asset. This study provides an overview of the analysis techniques used to determine the temperature extremes, gradients, and timelines of a tall composite tower over a one-year duration at the Shackleton Connecting Ridge. The developed thermal model includes tower and lunar surface elements with anisotropic and temperature-dependent material properties and incorporates a solar vector orbit with time-varying solar flux. Study topics include: a comparison between the effects of simplified lunar surface topologies on thermal results, prediction of surface temperature values versus Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) flight data, and tower structural-thermal deformation.

Lunar↗

Lifetime predictions for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and San Marco spacecraft

Lifetime prediction techniques developed by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) are described. These techniques were developed to predict the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft orbit, which is decaying due to atmospheric drag, with reentry predicted to occur before the end of 1989. Lifetime predictions were also performed for the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), which was deployed on the 1984 SMM repair mission and is scheduled for retrieval on another Space Transportation System (STS) mission later this year. Concepts used in the lifetime predictions were tested on the San Marco spacecraft, which reentered the Earth's atmosphere on December 6, 1988. Ephemerides predicting the orbit evolution of the San Marco spacecraft until reentry were generated over the final 90 days of the mission when the altitude was less than 380 kilometers. The errors in the predicted ephemerides are due to errors in the prediction of atmospheric density variations over the lifetime of the satellite. To model the time dependence of the atmospheric densities, predictions of the solar flux at the 10.7-centimeter wavelength were used in conjunction with Harris-Priester (HP) atmospheric density tables. Orbital state vectors, together with the spacecraft mass and area, are used as input to the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). Propagations proceed in monthly segments, with the nominal atmospheric drag model scaled for each month according to the predicted monthly average value of F10.7. Calibration propagations are performed over a period of known orbital decay to obtain the effective ballistic coefficient. Progagations using plus or minus 2 sigma solar flux predictions are also generated to estimate the despersion in expected reentry dates. Definitive orbits are compared with these predictions as time expases. As updated vectors are received, these are also propagated to reentryto continually update the lifetime predictions.

Smith, E. A.↗

Stochastic Analysis of Orbital Lifetimes of Spacecraft

A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.

Sasamoto, Washito↗

NORAD/SPACECMD comments concerning the atmospheric density models

Recent models do not produce more accurate neutral densities (although they require more computer time), regardless of the level of solar activity. This implies that there has been no measurable improvement of the calculation of neutral density since the early 60s. With known solar flux and geomagnetic activity (Ap) inputs, the density evaluation needs improvement. For highly eccentric orbits which span low to high altitude, the accuracy generated which has an altitude limitation of 1000 km remains comparable with those obtained by more recent models. This implies that either the density at 1000 km and above is insignificant or that the values provided by the recent models at high altitudes may not be reliable or both. Prediction accuracies obtained through the use of precision data from the Defense Mapping Agency are generally comparable to those obtained by using operational sensor data. This implies that the prediction accuracy problem is not necessarily caused by less accurate observations. The definition of the mean solar flux F10.7 is not universal.

Liu, Joseph J. F.↗

Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions

Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.

Jordan, P. S.↗

The vertical structure of arch filament systems in solar emerging flux regions

The paper studies the vertical velocity of arch filaments in emerging flux regions by measuring their proper motion near the limb in H-alpha filtergrams and their radial velocity near the disk center in H-alpha spectrograms. Both show that arch filaments rise at a velocity between 10 and 15 km/s. The possible mechanisms producing this high velocity are discussed. None of them is satifactory, but it appears that the unloading of the arches by outflow must play a role. From the strength of H-alpha emission and D3 absorption, the temperature of arch filaments is estimated at 6000-15,000 K and the density at 10 to the 11th-12th/cu cm.

Chou, Dean-Yi↗

Velocity distributions of hydrogen atoms and hydroxyl radicals produced through solar photodissociation of water

The velocity distributions of H and OH fragments produced through solar photodissociation of gaseous H2O molecules under collisionless conditions are presented. The calculations are carried out using: the most recently available absolute partial cross sections for the production of H and OH through photodissociation of H2O from its absorption onset at 1860 A down to 500 A; the newly available vibrational and rotational energy distributions of both the excited and ground state OH photofragments; the calculated cross sections for the total dissociation processes; and the integrated solar flux in 10 A increments from 500 to 1860 A in the continuum regions and the specific wavelength and flux at the bright solar lines. The calculated results show that the H atoms and the OH radicals produced exhibit multiple velocity groups. Since most current cometary modeling uses a single velocity of 20 km/sec associated with the photodissociation of H2O, the present results may be useful in interpreting the many peaks observed in the velocity distributions of the H Lyman alpha and H alpha of comets.

Wu, C. Y. R.↗

Equilibrium structure of solar magnetic flux tubes: Energy transport with multistream radiative transfer

We examine the equilibrium structure of vertical intense magnetic flux tubes on the Sun. Assuming cylindrical geometry, we solve the magnetohydrostatic equations in the thin flux-tube approximation, allowing for energy transport by radiation and convection. The radiative transfer equation is solved in the six-stream approximation, assuming gray opacity and local thermodynamic equilibrium. This constitutes a significant improvement over a previous study, in which the transfer was solved using the multidimensional generalization of the Eddington approximation. Convection in the flux tube is treated using mixing-length theory, with an additional parameter alpha, characterizing the suppression of convective energy transport in the tube by the strong magnetic field. The equations are solved using the method of partial linearization. We present results for tubes with different values of the magnetic field strength and radius at a fixed depth in the atmosphere. In general, we find that, at equal geometric heights, the temperature on the tube axis, compared to the ambient medium, is higher in the photosphere and lower in the convection zone, with the difference becoming larger for thicker tubes. At equal optical depths the tubes are generally hotter than their surroundings. The results are comparatively insensitive to alpha but depend upon whether radiative and convective energy transport operate simultaneously or in separate layers. A comparison of our results with semiempirical models shows that the temperature and intensity contrast are in broad agreement. However, the field strengths of the flux-tube models are somewhat lower than the values inferred from observations.

Hasan, S. S.↗

Evidence for siphon flows with shocks in solar magnetic flux tubes

We synthesize profiles of the infrared line Fe I 15648.5 A (g = 3) for a recently developed theoretical model of siphon flows along photospheric magnetic loops. The synthesized line profiles are compared with the observations from which Rueedi et al. (1992) deduced the presence of such flows across the neutral line of an active region plage. This comparison supports the interpretation of Rueedi et al. (1992). It also suggests that the average footpoint separation of the observed loops carrying the siphon flow is 8-15 sec and that the siphon flow experiences a standing tube shock in the downstream leg near the top of the arch.

Degenhardt, D.↗