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Analysis of Arc Welding Process in Space

This work is motivated by NASA plans to conduct welding experiments on the ISS. It is expected that deployment of welding and additive manufacturing technologies in the space environment has the potential to revolutionise how orbiting platforms are designed, manufactured, and assembled. However, the structure, composition and quality of a weld is extremely dependent on the environment and can be difficult to control in space. Shielding gases would also be tough to manage as gases behave differently in zero gravity and airless environments. Additional points of concern are related to the spatter and sparks dynamics in space. Therefore, there is a need for a more basic understanding of welding processes by computational modelling. To provide such an insight we developed state of art models of the ARC torch, droplet detachment and transfer, and the melt pool build up using magnetohydrodynamics approximation and level set method for two-phase liquid metal/-gas flow modelling. Two finite element models were built using 2D axisymmetric geometry in COMSOL Multiphysics®: (i) stationary model of the ARC torch and (ii) dynamical model of droplet detachment and transfer. Both models demonstrate reasonable agreement with earlier experimental observations and high sensitivity to the temperature dependence of the thermophysical parameters on the system materials. The models were used to provide physical insight into ARC welding in various environments and geometries. It was shown, in particular, that there is a significant probability of gas bubbles trapping in the meltpool and a possibility of unbounded wondering of sparks in the welding chamber in zero gravity. In addition, we estimated metal evaporation rate that may be hazardous in the confined environment of the ISS. These issues raise concern of quality of the weld and safety for ISS applications.

ARC welding↗

Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report. Volume Two

Volume II of the Report contains appendices that were cited in Volume I. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board produced many of these appendices as working papers during the investigation into the February 1, 2003 destruction of the Space Shuttle Columbia. Other appendices were produced by other organizations (mainly NASA) in support of the Board investigation. In the case of documents that have been published by others, they are included here in the interest of establishing a complete record, but often at less than full page size. Contents include: CAIB Technical Documents Cited in the Report: Reader's Guide to Volume II; Appendix D. a Supplement to the Report; Appendix D.b Corrections to Volume I of the Report; Appendix D.1 STS-107 Training Investigation; Appendix D.2 Payload Operations Checklist 3; Appendix D.3 Fault Tree Closure Summary; Appendix D.4 Fault Tree Elements - Not Closed; Appendix D.5 Space Weather Conditions; Appendix D.6 Payload and Payload Integration; Appendix D.7 Working Scenario; Appendix D.8 Debris Transport Analysis; Appendix D.9 Data Review and Timeline Reconstruction Report; Appendix D.10 Debris Recovery; Appendix D.11 STS-107 Columbia Reconstruction Report; Appendix D.12 Impact Modeling; Appendix D.13 STS-107 In-Flight Options Assessment; Appendix D.14 Orbiter Major Modification (OMM) Review; Appendix D.15 Maintenance, Material, and Management Inputs; Appendix D.16 Public Safety Analysis; Appendix D.17 MER Manager's Tiger Team Checklist; Appendix D.18 Past Reports Review; Appendix D.19 Qualification and Interpretation of Sensor Data from STS-107; Appendix D.20 Bolt Catcher Debris Analysis.

CAIB (COLUMBIA ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION BOARD)↗

Alloy 625 Qualification Pathway for ASME Section III Division 5 Class A construction

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section III Division 5 provides construction and inspection rules to ensure the safety of nuclear components operating at elevated temperatures, defined as those operating above 700°F (370°C) or 800°F (425°C), depending on the material type. At present, there are six materials approved for Class A (high safety significance) component construction under ASME BPVC Section III Division 5. Out of these six materials, five materials are steels or iron-based alloys and one material, Alloy 617, is a nickel alloy. Nickel alloys are stronger than steels; however, Alloy 617 consists of 10-15% cobalt, and activation is a concern under irradiation. Therefore, there is a need to qualify new nickel alloy with lower cobalt content. Alloy 625 is one candidate which has similar mechanical properties at elevated temperature compared to Alloy 617 and has a maximum of 1% cobalt. Although Alloy 625 material properties have been developed in the past to support allowable stress development under ASME Section II, new test results would be needed to qualify this material for elevated temperature component construction under ASME Section III Division 5. The purpose of this report is to describe a path towards developing a Nuclear Code Case to qualify Alloy 625 (UNS N06625; Grade 1 and Grade 2) for elevated temperature nuclear use in accordance with the ASME BPVC rules. This report reviews the existing database on Alloy 625, presents proposed test campaign, and discusses potential paths for accelerating the accelerated material qualification process.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design and Evaluation of a New Boundary-Layer Rake for Flight Testing

A new boundary-layer rake has been designed and built for flight testing on the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-15B/Flight Test Fixture. A feature unique to this rake is its curved body, which allows pitot tubes to be more densely clustered in the near-wall region than conventional rakes allow. This curved rake design has a complex three-dimensional shape that requires innovative solid-modeling and machining techniques. Finite-element stress analysis of the new design shows high factors of safety. The rake has passed a ground test in which random vibration measuring 12 g rms was applied for 20 min in each of the three normal directions. Aerodynamic evaluation of the rake has been conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center 8 x 6 Supersonic Wind Tunnel at Mach 0-2. The pitot pressures from the new rake agree with conventional rake data over the range of Mach numbers tested. The boundary-layer profiles computed from the rake data have been shown to have the standard logarithmic-law profile. Skin friction values computed from the rake data using the Clauser plot method agree with the Preston tube results and the van Driest II compressible skin friction correlation to approximately +/-5 percent.

Bui, Trong T.↗

A Full-scale Demonstration of Pressurized Water Reactor Core Design Optimization using Multi-Cycle Optimization Methodology

The U.S. nuclear sector encounters a difficulty in upholding essential safety standards while also securing economic viability for continued operation. Safety stands as a pivotal factor across all facets of operations within light-water reactor nuclear power plants. Achieving economic feasibility alongside safety can be facilitated through the utilization of a risk-informed framework, exemplified by the ongoing development within the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy's LWRS Program. This initiative advocates for a diverse array of research and development endeavors aimed at optimizing both safety and economic efficacy within nuclear power plants, particularly pertinent as many plants contemplate second license renewals. The Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway has two main goals: deploy methodologies and technologies that better represent safety margins and cost and safety factors and develop advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. This report assesses the potential for resolving multi-cycle plant reload challenges through real-world scenarios utilizing the Plant ReLoad Optimization (PRLO) framework. This framework offers reactor core design developers analytic tools of reactor safety and fuel performance with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance core design solutions. Multi-objective genetic algorithm alongside acceleration techniques is explored as an enabling technology for improving fuel efficiency while upholding safety thresholds. The demonstration of multi-cycle core design optimization is performed. This report investigates the practical application of the PRLO platform in addressing real-world core design challenges, supporting AI efforts, and contrasting outcomes with those derived from heuristic or conventional algorithms.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Technoeconomic Design Optimization for Fast Reactors. Part II: Impact of Technoeconomic Constraints on Optimal Design

There is a current drive toward optimizing reactors, particularly small/micro reactors to minimize cost and maximize performance. Previous work has investigated the development of technoeconomic workflows for the design optimization of pool-type fast reactors that aim to deploy into district energy grids. Initial scoping studies verified that the workflow was capable of capturing design trends throughout a variety of design configurations and problem formulations while remaining sufficiently flexible. In this paper, this methodology is applied to understand how cost functions and technoeconomic constraints can drive optimal reactor design. Specifically, the UPu10Zr-fueled fast reactor model from Part I is adapted to include changes in the fissile content limits, control rod worth limits, control rod drive cost, and assumed fuel form. In the case of constraint relaxation at fixed power (fissile content and control rod worth limits), cost sensitivities of 5% to 10% were uncovered. Multi-objective optimization at varying reactor power levels with individualized control rod drives for each assembly (as opposed to one operational and one safety drive) increased cost by $\$10$ to $\$25$ million and substantially altered the optimal core geometry, favoring geometries with substantially fewer control rod placements relative to baseline optimization. Finally, a multi-objective optimization was performed at varying power levels with the fuel form overhauled to metallic, high-assay low-enriched uranium–based U10Zr with more refined fuel cost models. In the case of uranium fueling, the costs increased by at least $50 million relative to the baseline case. Furthermore, economic fuel zoning and lower reactivity swing cores were recovered. Each case serves to demonstrate the value of applying technoeconomic workflows to initial reactor design scoping studies to better understand the trade-off for a proposed concept between different design options.

Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) codes↗

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

Fermilab Booster is being upgraded for the PIP-II project to support 20Hz ramp rate at higher intensities. Loss trip limits determine the achievable peak power. To meet PIP-II requirements, losses need to be halved as compared to current levels. Losses primarily occur at injection and transition crossing, with both gradually increasing and threshold-like intensity-dependent behaviors. The existing simulation models are not yet good enough for quantitative loss predictions. In practice, it will be necessary to tune up the Booster using iterative methods and operator intuition. In this paper we present an effort to systematically model Booster losses using active learning (Bayesian exploration) techniques, and subsequently to rebalance them for higher trip limit margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. This is a complex task due to safety and timing requirements – we discuss mitigations such as uncertainty constraints and approximate fitting. Once models are stable, we perform large-scale single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives made up of critical beam loss locations. Our results demonstrate significant rebalancing of losses, increasing trip margins, as well as an overall improvement in beam transmission efficiency. We are exploring how to combine existing simulations with experimental data and automate the collection procedure so that more advanced surrogate models can be created over time.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

Process Sensitivity, Performance, and Direct Verification Testing of Adhesive Locking Features

Phase I: The use of adhesive locking features or liquid locking compounds (LLCs) (e.g., Loctite) as a means of providing a secondary locking feature has been used on NASA programs since the Apollo program. In many cases Loctite was used as a last resort when (a) self-locking fasteners were no longer functioning per their respective drawing specification, (b) access was limited for removal & replacement, or (c) replacement could not be accomplished without severe impact to schedule. Long-term use of Loctite became inevitable in cases where removal and replacement of worn hardware was not cost effective and Loctite was assumed to be fully cured and working. The NASA Engineering & Safety Center (NESC) and United Space Alliance (USA) recognized the need for more extensive testing of Loctite grades to better understand their capabilities and limitations as a secondary locking feature. These tests, identified as Phase I, were designed to identify processing sensitivities, to determine proper cure time, the correct primer to use on aerospace nutplate, insert and bolt materials such as A286 and MP35N, and the minimum amount of Loctite that is required to achieve optimum breakaway torque values. The .1900-32 was the fastener size tested, due to wide usage in the aerospace industry. Three different grades of Loctite were tested. Results indicate that, with proper controls, adhesive locking features can be successfully used in the repair of locking features and should be considered for design. Phase II: Threaded fastening systems used in aerospace programs typically have a requirement for a redundant locking feature. The primary locking method is the fastener preload and the traditional redundant locking feature is a self-locking mechanical device that may include deformed threads, non-metallic inserts, split beam features, or other methods that impede movement between threaded members. The self-locking resistance of traditional locking features can be directly verified during assembly by measuring the dynamic prevailing torque. Adhesive locking features or LLCs are another method of providing redundant locking, but a direct verification method has not been used in aerospace applications to verify proper installation when using LLCs because of concern for damage to the adhesive bond. The reliability of LLCs has also been questioned due to failures observed during testing with coupons for process verification, although the coupon failures have often been attributed to a lack of proper procedures. It is highly desirable to have a direct method of verifying the LLC cure or bond integrity. The purpose of the Phase II test program was to determine if the torque applied during direct verification of an adhesive locking feature degrades that locking feature. This report documents the test program used to investigate the viability of such a direct verification method. Results of the Phase II testing were positive, and additional investigation of direct verification of adhesive locking features is merited.

Golden, Johnny L.↗

Infrared Avionics Signal Distribution using Wavelength Division Multiplexing

Pilots in the cockpits of aircrafts currently communicate with ground stations using Radio Frequency (RF) signals. Antennas mounted outside the aircraft receive and transmit RF signals from and to the ground stations. The RF signals received at the antennas are sent to the cockpit using coaxial cables. As the number of antennas needed to provide more than one frequency band in aircrafts increases, RF distribution media (such as coaxial cable) adds to the complexity and weight of the cockpit wiring. Concomitantly, the safety and signal to noise ratio also decreases due to the use of RF signals. The University of Oklahoma is collaborating with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to develop optical fiber based schemes to replace the coaxial cable used for RF signal distribution within an aircraft. The project aims at exploiting emerging Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) techniques to reduce the weight of cabling, and increase the signal to noise ratio and reliability. This will be achieved by wavelength division multiplexing the signals from the various antennas and then demultiplexing the signals to recover the original signals at the cockpit. This paper will show that (i) RF signals can not only be wavelength multiplexed at the end of a fiber, but additional signals can be inserted into the middle of the fiber using WDM technology, and (ii) the signals can also be successfully extracted by tapping into the middle of the fiber. We are currently extending our previous laboratory prototype (which could multiplex signals only at the end of the fiber) to include additional multiplexing and demultiplexing of RF signals from the middle of the optical backbone with a view to validating the proof of concept, and carrying out measurements to determine the effectiveness of Wavelength Division Multiplexing for avionics applications. A test bed to perform measurements of several relevant parameters for various modulation schemes and frequencies (such as VHF, UHF, and L-Band) has been implemented. In particular, results of transmitter and receiver noise, bit-error-rate (BER), effect of cross talk on the quality of the multiplexed signals, and Signal to Noise ratio and Carrier to Noise ratio, obtained using the aforementioned test bed, will be presented.

Atiquzzaman, Mohammed↗

Exploring the Solid Rocket Boosters and Properties of Matter

I worked for the United Space Alliance, LLC (USA) with the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) Materials and Process engineers (M&P). I was assigned a project in which I needed to research and collect chemical and physical properties information, material safety data sheets (MSDS), and other product information from the vendor's websites and existing "inhouse" files for a select group of materials used in building and refurbishing the SRBs. This information was then compiled in a report that summarized the information collected. My work site was at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). This allowed for many opportunities to visit and tour sites operated by NASA, by USA, and by the Air Force. This included the vehicle assembly building (VAB), orbital processing facilities (OPF), the crawler with the mobile launch pad (MLP), and the SRB assembly and refurbishment facility (ARF), to name a few. In addition, the launch, of STS- 117 took place within the first week of employment allowing a day by day following of that mission including post flight operations for the SRBs. Two Delta II rockets were also launched during these 7 weeks. The sights were incredible and the operations witnessed were amazing. I learned so many things I never knew about the entire program and the shuttle itself. The entire experience, especially my work with the SRB materials, inspired my plan for implementation into the classroom.

Moffett, Amy↗

The Role of NASA Engineering & Safety Center (NESC) in Advancing NASA's Earth Science Missions (Past, Present, and Future)

The NASA Engineering & Safety Center (NESC) was established in 2003 to provide an independent technical resource for the resolution of challenging technical problems (through the use of studies, analysis, tests, etc.). Since its inception, NESC has completed nearly 1000 technical assessments for NASA’s Human Exploration and Operation Mission Directorate (HEOMD), Science Mission Directorate (SMD), Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), and Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD). Of the SMD related assessments, several were for the resolution of technical problems, analysis, or studies related to NASA’s Earth science missions in various phases of the project from design to operation. Some of the recent examples of NESC technical support for NASA (or NOAA) Earth science missions have been for: Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-II), Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the soon to be launched collaboration mission with India, NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR). In this paper, we outline some of the technical challenges faced by these Earth science missions and describe how NESC contributed to their resolution. The case studies cover a wide range of disciplines involving space lidars, radars, electronics, attitude control systems, as well as Micrometeoroid Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk assessment impact to NASA missions. The efforts include strategies for risk mitigation, technical resolution of challenging problems, and failure root cause investigations combined with lessons learned reports to advance discipline knowledge, enhance NASA capabilities, and avoid future problems.

NASA↗

Combustion of Solids in Microgravity: Results from the BASS-II Experiment

The Burning and Suppression of Solids-II (BASS-II) experiment was performed on the International Space Station. Microgravity combustion tests burned thin and thick flat samples, acrylic slabs, spheres, and cylinders. The samples were mounted inside a small wind tunnel which could impose air flow speeds up to 53 cms. The wind tunnel was installed in the Microgravity Science Glovebox which supplied power, imaging, and a level of containment. The effects of air flow speed, fuel thickness, fuel preheating, and oxygen concentration on flame appearance, growth, spread rate, and extinction were examined in both the opposed and concurrent flow configuration. The flames are quite sensitive to air flow speed in the range 0 to 5 cms. They can be sustained at very low flow speeds of less than 1 cms, when they become dim blue and stable. In this state they are not particularly dangerous from a fire safety perspective, but they can flare up quickly with a sudden increase in air flow speed. Including earlier BASS-I results, well over one hundred tests have been conducted of the various samples in the different geometries, flow speeds, and oxygen concentrations. There are several important implications related to fundamental combustion research as well as spacecraft fire safety. This work was supported by the NASA Space Life and Physical Sciences Research and Applications Division (SLPSRA).

Combustion↗

Conducting Closed Habitation Experiments: Experience from the Lunar Mars Life Support Test Project

The Lunar-Mars Life Support Test Project (LMLSTP) was conducted from 1995 through 1997 at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) to demonstrate increasingly longer duration operation of integrated, closed-loop life support systems that employed biological and physicochemical techniques for water recycling, waste processing, air revitalization, thermal control, and food production. An analog environment for long-duration human space travel, the conditions of isolation and confinement also enabled studies of human factors, medical sciences (both physiology and psychology) and crew training. Four tests were conducted, Phases I, II, IIa and III, with durations of 15, 30, 60 and 91 days, respectively. The first phase focused on biological air regeneration, using wheat to generate enough oxygen for one experimental subject. The systems demonstrated in the later phases were increasingly complex and interdependent, and provided life support for four crew members. The tests were conducted using two human-rated, atmospherically-closed test chambers, the Variable Pressure Growth Chamber (VPGC) and the Integrated Life Support Systems Test Facility (ILSSTF). Systems included test articles (the life support hardware under evaluation), human accommodations (living quarters, kitchen, exercise equipment, etc.) and facility systems (emergency matrix system, power, cooling, etc.). The test team was managed by a lead engineer and a test director, and included test article engineers responsible for specific systems, subsystems or test articles, test conductors, facility engineers, chamber operators and engineering technicians, medical and safety officers, and science experimenters. A crew selection committee, comprised of psychologists, engineers and managers involved in the test, evaluated male and female volunteers who applied to be test subjects. Selection was based on the skills mix anticipated for each particular test, and utilized information from psychological and medical testing, data on the knowledge, experience and skills of the applicants, and team building exercises. The design, development, buildup and operation of test hardware and documentation followed the established NASA processes and requirements for test buildup and operation.

Barta, Daniel J.↗

Conducting Closed Habitation Experiments: Experience from the Lunar Mars Life Support Test Project

The Lunar-Mars Life Support Test Project (LMLSTP) was conducted from 1995 through 1997 at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) to demonstrate increasingly longer duration operation of integrated, closed-loop life support systems that employed biological and physicochemical techniques for water recycling, waste processing, air revitalization, thermal control, and food production. An analog environment for long-duration human space travel, the conditions of isolation and confinement also enabled studies of human factors, medical sciences (both physiology and psychology) and crew training. Four tests were conducted, Phases I, II, IIa and III, with durations of 15, 30,60 and 91 days, respectively. The first phase focused on biological air regeneration, using wheat to generate enough oxygen for one experimental subject. The systems demonstrated in the later phases were increasingly complex and interdependent, and provided life support for four crew members. The tests were conducted using two human-rated, atmospherically-closed test chambers, the Variable Pressure Growth Chamber (VPGC) and the Integrated Life Support Systems Test Facility (ILSSTF). Systems included test articles (the life support hardware under evaluation), human accommodations (living quarters, kitchen, exercise equipment, etc.) and facility systems (emergency matrix system, power, cooling, etc.). The test team was managed by a lead engineer and a test director, and included test article engineers responsible for specific systems, subsystems or test articles, test conductors, facility engineers, chamber operators and engineering technicians, medical and safety officers, and science experimenters. A crew selection committee, comprised of psychologists, engineers and managers involved in the test, evaluated male and female volunteers who applied to be test subjects. Selection was based on the skills mix anticipated for each particular test, and utilized information from psychological and medical testing, data on the knowledge, experience and skills of the applicants, and team building exercises. The design, development, buildup and operation of test hardware and documentation followed the established NASA processes and requirements for test buildup and operation.

Barta, Daniel J.↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2024

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2024. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2024 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA’s In-Space Manufacturing Project: Update on Manufacturing Technologies and Materials to Enable More Sustainable and Safer Exploration

NASA’s In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) project seeks to develop the materials, processes, and manufacturing technologies needed to provide an on-demand manufacturing capability for deep space exploration missions. The ability to manufacture and recycle some parts on demand rather than launch them from earth has the potential to reduce logistics requirements on long duration missions and enhance crew safety. With the launch of the first 3D printer (built and operated by Made in Space through a Small Business Innovative Research – SBIR -- contract) to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2014, the ISM project demonstrated the feasibility of operating an on-demand manufacturing system in a microgravity environment. This paper will provide an update on recent advancements in ISM under three key technology areas: manufacturing, recycling, and development of a design database. ISM continues to pursue development of manufacturing technologies for space applications and use the ISS as a critical test bed to prove out these technologies before deploying them on next generation exploration systems. Activities under this focus area include: characterization of materials manufactured using the Additive Manufacturing Facility (AMF), the second generation commercial 3D-printer on ISS, also owned and operated by Made in Space; development of prototype payloads for metal manufacturing through phase II SBIR contracts with Tethers Unlimited, Made in Space, and Ultra Tech Machinery; development of a multi-material fabrication laboratory capable of processing metals and providing inspection of manufactured parts through a Broad Agency Announcement (Techshot, Interlog, and Tethers Unlimited); an in-line sensing system for ISM platforms; and development of higher strength feedstocks for 3D polymer printers. In the area of recycling, the Tethers Unlimited Refabricator payload (an integrated 3D printer and recycler for ULTEM 9085) launched to ISS in November 2018 and began operating in early 2019. This payload represents the first demonstration of on-orbit recycling; down massed specimens will assess material degradation in the polymer over multiple recycling cycles to define limits on material re-use. Other work in the recycling area includes development of common use materials intended to be reused and recycled on space missions (Tethers Unlimited and Cornerstone Research Group) and a sterilization capability for multiple-use materials (ERASMUS from Tethers Unlimited). Concurrent with manufacturing technology and materials development work is creation of a design database, a curated list of parts that can be manufactured using the suite of In-Space Manufacturing capabilities.

Tracie Prater↗

A Comparative Study on Computation of Cumulative Distribution Function in Predicting Time of Failure of Engineering Systems

Estimating accurate Time-of-Failure (ToF) of a system is key in making the decisions that impact operational safety and optimize cost. In this context, it is interesting to note that different approaches have been explored to tackle the problem of estimating ToF. The difference is in part characterized by different definitions of the hazard zones. The conventional definition for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculation is assumed to have well-defined hazard zones, that is, hazard zones defined as a function of the system state trajectory. An alternate method suggests the use of hazard zones defined as a function of the system state at time , instead of hazard zones defined as a function of system state up to and including time k (Acuna and Orchard 2018, 2017). This paper explores these differences and their impact on ToF estimation. Results for the conventional CDF definition indicated that, (i) the cumulative distribution function is always an increasing function of time, even when realizations of the degradation process are not monotonic, (ii) the sum of all probabilities is always 1 and does not need to be normalized, and (iii) all probabilities are positive and less than or equal to 1. Similar results are not observed for CDF calculation with hazard zones defined as a function only of the system state at time . Results for ToF estimation using Acuna's definition differ, suggesting that there is an underlying assumption of independence in the hazard zone definition. Therefore, we present an alternate definition of hazard zone which guarantees the properties of a well-defined CDF with a more straightforward ToF definition.

Hazard Zone↗

Parallel runway requirement analysis study. Volume 1: The analysis

The correlation of increased flight delays with the level of aviation activity is well recognized. A main contributor to these flight delays has been the capacity of airports. Though new airport and runway construction would significantly increase airport capacity, few programs of this type are currently underway, let alone planned, because of the high cost associated with such endeavors. Therefore, it is necessary to achieve the most efficient and cost effective use of existing fixed airport resources through better planning and control of traffic flows. In fact, during the past few years the FAA has initiated such an airport capacity program designed to provide additional capacity at existing airports. Some of the improvements that that program has generated thus far have been based on new Air Traffic Control procedures, terminal automation, additional Instrument Landing Systems, improved controller display aids, and improved utilization of multiple runways/Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC) approach procedures. A useful element to understanding potential operational capacity enhancements at high demand airports has been the development and use of an analysis tool called The PLAND_BLUNDER (PLB) Simulation Model. The objective for building this simulation was to develop a parametric model that could be used for analysis in determining the minimum safety level of parallel runway operations for various parameters representing the airplane, navigation, surveillance, and ATC system performance. This simulation is useful as: a quick and economical evaluation of existing environments that are experiencing IMC delays, an efficient way to study and validate proposed procedure modifications, an aid in evaluating requirements for new airports or new runways in old airports, a simple, parametric investigation of a wide range of issues and approaches, an ability to tradeoff air and ground technology and procedures contributions, and a way of considering probable blunder mechanisms and range of blunder scenarios. This study describes the steps of building the simulation and considers the input parameters, assumptions and limitations, and available outputs. Validation results and sensitivity analysis are addressed as well as outlining some IMC and Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) approaches to parallel runways. Also, present and future applicable technologies (e.g., Digital Autoland Systems, Traffic Collision and Avoidance System II, Enhanced Situational Awareness System, Global Positioning Systems for Landing, etc.) are assessed and recommendations made.

Ebrahimi, Yaghoob S.↗