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DOE OSTI2021

Redefining Resource Adequacy for Modern Power Systems: A Report of the Redefining Resource Adequacy Task Force

Today's rapidly increasing levels of wind, solar, storage, and load flexibility require the industry to rethink reliability planning and resource adequacy methods for modern power systems. Periods with a risk of shortfall often no longer coincide with peak demand - reliability risks are less about peak load and more about the daily setting of the sun, extended cloud cover, wind speeds, cold snaps, and heat waves. In addition, demand is increasingly flexible. Key resources are time-sensitive, as batteries need time to recharge and electricity customers can only be asked to provide demand response for just so long. And reliability failures are often correlated - with one another and with the weather. Two driving factors require the industry to reconsider its analytical approach for resource adequacy: (1) Chronological grid operations: The increasing importance of variable renewable resources (such as wind and solar) and of energy-limited resources (storage and demand response) make it essential to understand the full year of chronological operation of the grid. Specific attention must be paid to hourly, seasonal, and inter-annual resource variability. The sequence of the variability is key, as energy-limited resources such as batteries or demand response require either a preceding period or subsequent period of high production to be useful for grid reliability. (2) Correlated events: Historically, resource adequacy analysis focused on shortfalls caused by random, discrete mechanical failures of large generating units. In contrast, shortfalls today are often caused by multiple, correlated events caused by common weather patterns. Resource adequacy analysis must increasingly shift its focus to these correlated events. The redesign of resource adequacy methods will benefit from a set of guiding principles to better allow for sharing of insights and best practices, interregional resource coordination, and a smoother regulatory process for resource procurement. The objective of this report is to move this redesign forward. It provides an overview of key drivers changing the way resource adequacy needs to be evaluated, identifies shortcomings of conventional approaches, and outlines first principles for practitioners to consider as they adapt their approaches. The central message is: what got us here won't get us there.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data‐driven identification of environmental variables influencing phenotypic plasticity to facilitate breeding for future climates

Summary Phenotypic plasticity describes a genotype's ability to produce different phenotypes in response to different environments. Breeding crops that exhibit appropriate levels of plasticity for future climates will be crucial to meeting global demand, but knowledge of the critical environmental factors is limited to a handful of well‐studied major crops. Using 727 maize ( Zea mays L.) hybrids phenotyped for grain yield in 45 environments, we investigated the ability of a genetic algorithm and two other methods to identify environmental determinants of grain yield from a large set of candidate environmental variables constructed using minimal assumptions. The genetic algorithm identified pre‐ and postanthesis maximum temperature, mid‐season solar radiation, and whole season net evapotranspiration as the four most important variables from a candidate set of 9150. Importantly, these four variables are supported by previous literature. After calculating reaction norms for each environmental variable, candidate genes were identified and gene annotations investigated to demonstrate how this method can generate insights into phenotypic plasticity. The genetic algorithm successfully identified known environmental determinants of hybrid maize grain yield. This demonstrates that the methodology could be applied to other less well‐studied phenotypes and crops to improve understanding of phenotypic plasticity and facilitate breeding crops for future climates.

Kusmec, Aaron↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anthropogenic warming drives earlier wildfire season onset in California

Annual wildfire area in California has rapidly grown in recent decades, with increasingly negative impacts on people. The fire season is also lengthening, with an earlier onset. This trend has been hypothesized to be driven by anthropogenic warming, but it has yet to be quantitatively attributed to climate drivers. Using a comprehensive fire occurrence dataset, we analyze fire season onset and climate controls on its variability and change during 1992–2020 in 13 California ecoregions. Northern California ecoregions show stronger trends toward earlier onset compared to more arid southern California ecoregions. Onset has trended earlier for all but one ecoregion. Interannual variability of onset is dominated by climate variability and its influence on fuel moisture. Trend attribution inferred from onset-climate relationships suggests that anthropogenic warming advanced fire season onset by 6 to 46 days during 1992–2020 in 11 of 13 ecoregions. Continued warming is expected to further promote earlier fire season onsets.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ecohydrology of wetland plant communities along an estuarine to tidal river gradient

Abiotic filters that interact with wetland plant communities along tidal–fluvial gradients are highly dynamic, and understanding their quantitative thresholds and relationships to interspecific competition is important during an era of sea-level rise and watershed hydrologic change. Yet, landscape-scale studies of major coastal rivers from the river mouth to the head of tide, such as this study, remain rare. Here, we develop a new predictive framework for estuarine–tidal river research and management using a river-specific low-water datum and the wetland inundation indicator SEVg, the growing-season sum exceedance value of hourly surface-water depth. The distribution and variability of the wetland species pool (n = 203) on the 234 river kilometer (rkm) lower Columbia River and estuary floodplain are described for the first time. 4,940 quadrats at 50 marshes were surveyed (2005–2016). Throughout the estuarine–tidal river system, SEVg was well suited to describe the wetland inundation regime and its variability based on the combination of longitudinal river position and elevation. SEVg increased significantly landward. Two primary wetland inundation regimes were identified: the seaward-tidal, usually greatest during the winter months, and landward-fluvial, greatest during the growing season. Nearest the ocean, salinity is the abiotic factor limiting species richness and non-native species. Farther upriver, the daily, seasonal, and interannual variability of the wetting and drying cycle encourage disturbance-tolerant species and non-natives and limit the number of hydrophytes and total vegetative cover. Hence, the average between-year similarity of site-scale areal cover significantly decreased landward. Hierarchical cluster analysis indicated five vegetative groups and five ecohydrologic zones between rkm 0 and 234 were discriminated with 76 significant species–zone associations. All zones had unique indicator species. Species with high indicator values were Carex lyngbyei throughout the estuarine zones, and Eleocharis palustris, Sagittaria latifolia, and the invasive non-native Phalaris arundinacea in the upper estuarine and lower, middle, and upper tidal river zones (IV > 0.90). Competition from C. lyngbyei nearest the ocean and P. arundinacea in the tidal river was associated with reduced species richness when total cover was >65%. This framework of filters informs the design and prediction of future wetland plant communities on coastal river floodplains.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low-temperature solar thermal-power systems for residential electricity supply under various seasonal and climate conditions

In this work, the performance of low-temperature (<100 degrees C) solar thermal-power systems to satisfy residential electric loads was analyzed. The solar-driven system was designed to provide a fraction of the total electricity demand in a complementary operation with the electric grid. The analysis was conducted for an coperation during seven days each season, considering real solar and climate variables and residential loads at different climate zones in the United States. The efficiency of the system strongly depends on the solar radiation profile and the ambient temperature. Maximum efficiencies of around 9.5% were obtained in the cold and marine climate zones due to the high solar energy input and low heat dissipation temperatures. In these two zones, the system could supply more than 98% of the electricity demand all seasons. At mixed-humid and hot-humid regions, the system supplied around 50% of the electric load in three of the four seasons, but it only supplies about 27% of the electricity needs in the mixed-humid zone during summer and hot-humid zone during winter. The effect of the solar collector field area and the tank volume was also analyzed. In general, larger solar fields positively impact the efficiency. However, the impact of the tank volume varies depending on the solar radiation profile and the load requirements. Average efficiencies for the seven-day operation can be larger than 6% with a proper selection of the solar collector area and tank volume for an Organic Rankine Cycle with a capacity of about 2.6 kW. Finally, an economic analysis of the system was conducted, and the results were compared with a solar PV + battery system of similar capacity. It is expected that the cost for the analyzed solar-thermal system decreases in the coming years with the increased interest on low temperature applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of elevation, season and accelerated snowmelt on biogeochemical processes during isolated conifer needle litter decomposition

Increased drought and temperatures associated with climate change have implications for ecosystem stress with risk for enhanced carbon release in sensitive biomes. Litter decomposition is a key component of biogeochemical cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, but questions remain regarding the local response of decomposition processes to climate change. This is particularly complex in mountain ecosystems where the variable nature of the slope, aspect, soil type, and snowmelt dynamics play a role. Hence, the goal of this study was to determine the role of elevation, soil type, seasonal shifts in soil moisture, and snowmelt timing on litter decomposition processes. Experimental plots containing replicate deployments of harvested lodgepole and spruce needle litter alongside needle-free controls were established in open meadows at three elevations ranging from 2,800–3,500 m in Crested Butte, Colorado. Soil biogeochemistry variables including gas flux, porewater chemistry, and microbial ecology were monitored over three climatically variable years that shifted from high monsoon rains to drought. Results indicated that elevation and soil type influenced baseline soil biogeochemical indicators; however, needle mass loss and chemical composition were consistent across the 700 m elevation gradient. Rates of gas flux were analogously consistent across a 300 m elevation gradient. The additional variable of early snowmelt by 2–3 weeks had little impact on needle chemistry, microbial composition and gas flux; however, it did result in increased dissolved organic carbon in lodgepole porewater collections suggesting a potential for aqueous export. In contrast to elevation, needle presence and seasonal variability of soil moisture and temperature both played significant roles in soil carbon fluxes. Furthermore, during a pronounced period of lower moisture and higher temperatures, bacterial community diversity increased across elevation with new members supplanting more dominant taxa. Microbial ecological resilience was demonstrated with a return to pre-drought structure and abundance after snowmelt rewetting the following year. These results show similar decomposition processes across a 700 m elevation gradient and reveal the sensitivity but resilience of soil microbial ecology to low moisture conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wind ramp events validation in NWP forecast models during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) using the Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M)

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a multi-agency field campaign held in the Columbia Gorge area (October 2015 - March 2017). The main goal of the project is to understand and improve the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in complex terrain, particularly beneficial for the wind energy industry. This region is well-known for its excellent wind resource. One of the biggest challenges for wind power production is the accurate forecasting of wind ramp events (large changes of generated power over short periods of time). Poor forecasting of the ramps requires large and sudden adjustments in conventional power generation, ultimately increasing the costs of power. A Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) was developed during the first WFIP experiment, held in the U.S. Great Plains (September 2011 - August 2012). The RT&M was designed to explicitly measure the skill of NWP models at forecasting wind ramp events. Here we apply the RT&M to 80-m (turbine hub-height) wind speeds measured by 19 sodars and 3 lidars, and to forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), 3-km, and from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST), 750-m horizontal grid spacing, models. The diurnal and seasonal distribution of ramp events are analyzed, finding a noticeable diurnal variability for spring and summer but less for fall and especially winter. Also, winter has fewer ramps compared to the other seasons. The model skill at forecasting ramp events, including the impact of the modification to the model physical parameterizations, was finally investigated.

Djalalova, Irina V.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric River Lifecycle Responses to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Abstract We investigate how the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical subseasonal variability, modulates the lifecycle of cool‐season North Pacific atmospheric rivers (ARs). When the enhanced (suppressed) convection center is located over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific), more AR events originate over eastern Asia and with fewer over the subtropical northern Pacific. When the enhanced (suppressed) convection is over the western Pacific (Indian Ocean), the opposite changes occur, with more AR events originate over the subtropical northern Pacific and fewer over eastern Asia. Dynamical processes involving anomalous MJO wind and seasonal mean moisture are found to be the dominant factors impacting these variations in AR origins. The MJO‐related anomalous geopotential height patterns are also shown to modulate the propagation of the AR events. These MJO–AR lifecycle relationships are further supported by model simulations.

Zhou, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2021

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Third Edition

As the world looks for low-carbon sources of energy, solar power stands out as the single most abundant energy resource on Earth. Harnessing this energy is the challenge for this century. Photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power (CSP) are primary forms of energy applications using sunlight. These solar energy systems use different technologies, collect different fractions of the solar resource, and have different siting requirements and production capabilities. Reliable information about the solar resource is required for every solar energy application. This holds true for small installations on a rooftop as well as for large solar power plants; however, solar resource information is of particular interest for large installations because they require substantial investment, sometimes exceeding 1 billion dollars in construction costs. Before such a project is undertaken, the best possible information about the quality and reliability of the fuel source must be made available. That is, project developers need reliable data about the solar resource available at specific locations, including historic trends with seasonal, daily, hourly, and (preferably) subhourly variability to predict the daily and annual performance of a proposed power plant. Without these data, an accurate financial analysis is not possible. Additionally, with the deployment of large amounts of distributed photovoltaics, there is an urgent need to integrate this source of generation to ensure the reliability and stability of the grid. Forecasting generation from the various sources will allow for larger penetrations of these generation sources because utilities and system operators can then ensure stable grid operations. Developed by the foremost experts in the field who have come together under the umbrella of the International Energy Agency’s Solar Heating and Cooling Task 46, this handbook summarizes state-of-the-art information about all these topics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Fourth Edition

As the world increasingly seeks low-carbon energy solutions, solar power emerges as the most abundant resource on our planet. However, the challenge of effectively harnessing this energy is crucial in the coming years. Solar energy applications such as photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power use different technologies to capitalize on sunlight. Each system has unique capabilities and requirements, underscoring the need for reliable information about solar resources across diverse installations, from residential rooftops to large-scale power plants. This is especially important for substantial projects, often exceeding $1 billion in construction costs. Before embarking on such ventures, it is imperative to obtain accurate data concerning solar resource quality and reliability at specific sites. Developers require detailed historical information, including seasonal, daily, hourly, and, ideally, subhourly variability to effectively predict a power plant's annual performance. Without these vital data, financial analyses fall short. Moreover, with the growing adoption of distributed photovoltaics, integrating these generation sources becomes critical to maintaining grid reliability and stability. By accurately forecasting generation patterns, utilities and system operators can facilitate greater integration of solar energy, thus ensuring the operational stability of the grid. The complexity and importance of these issues have prompted the foremost experts in the field to collaborate under the auspices of the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) Task 16 to publish this handbook, which summarizes state-of-the-art information about all these topics. The efforts focus on providing reliable data and insights that can help shape our investments in solar energy and drive a sustainable future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geological Thermal Energy Storage Using Solar Thermal and Carnot Batteries: Techno-Economic Analysis

Energy storage is increasingly necessary as variable renewable energy technologies are deployed. Seasonal energy storage can shift energy generation from the summer to the winter, but these technologies must have extremely large energy capacities and low costs. Geological thermal energy storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution for long-term energy storage. Excess thermal energy can be stored in permeable reservoirs such as aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for several months. In this article, we describe a techno-economic model that has been developed to evaluate GeoTES systems. The models are developed by combining the output of specialist models, which enables the performance and cost of both the subsurface and surface systems to be captured. Off-design models are developed so that the performance can be evaluated at each hour of the year. GeoTES can be charged with two different energy sources: (1) concentrating solar thermal and (2) renewable electricity using heat pumps (henceforth known as a "Carnot Battery"). The stored thermal energy can be used to generate electricity and, uniquely, also directly produce heat that can be used by industrial processes. Furthermore, Carnot Battery GeoTES can also be used to form a cold storage reservoir. Preliminary results that quantify the technical and economic performance of these two GeoTES systems are presented.

carnot battery↗
DOE OSTI2020

Balancing Water Sustainability and Productivity Objectives in Microalgae Cultivation: Siting Open Ponds by Considering Seasonal Water-Stress Impact Using AWARE-US

Microalgae have great potential as an energy crop. Scaling-up algal biofuel production in the United States (US) should be done with careful attention to water stress. This study evaluates the regional and seasonal water-stress impact of potential algae-pond deployments in the US. Three site-selection strategies focusing on biomass yield, water-use efficiency (WUE), and water-stress impact, respectively, are applied and compared to meet a US algae biomass production target of 30 million metric tons/yr ash-free dry weight, which converts to 20.8 billion L renewable diesel, via hydrothermal liquefaction. Ranking algae ponds based on biomass yield leads to freshwater consumption of 2.66 km3/yr, resulting in the highest water-stress impact (39.1 US equivalent km3). Under the WUE scenario, water consumption is reduced by 81%, but biomass yield is reduced by 12%. In contrast, adding a water-stress constraint to the biomass-yield ranking reduces water consumption by 50% and water-stress impact by 97%, with a small yield reduction (1.7%). Results show that pond location has a significant effect on water stress and that water stress is not proportional to water consumption or yield. Furthermore, capturing seasonal water patterns is critical for planning because sites in water-abundant regions can have short-term but significant water-stress impacts.

algae, Biofuel, water scarcity footprint, hydrothe↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ocean Variability Beneath the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Inferred From Basal Melt Rate Time Series

Fourteen phase-sensitive radars (ApRES) were deployed on the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) to measure variability in its basal melt rate. Melt rates from sites along the Ronne Depression vary seasonally, consistent with the dynamics of the propagation of seasonal dense water from the western ice front into the cavity. Several sites at the back of the FRIS cavity feature a signal with two seasonal maxima. Sub-ice shelf oceanographic data available from one of the sites indicate that this signal is caused by two different pathways followed by the same source water. Inter-annual variability is strongest along a direct flow pathway between western Ronne Ice Front and western Berkner Island. Highest melting occurred in 1999 and 2018, following anomalously low summer sea-ice concentrations in front of the ice shelf. Inter-annual melt rate variability at the back of the FRIS cavity is limited. If present, it is expressed as a suppression or delay in the arrival of the seasonal melt rate minimum, which can be understood in terms of inter-annual stratification changes and variable inflow pathways toward the sites. Long term mean ApRES melt rates agree with estimates from satellite data over eastern FRIS. However, the satellite estimates overstate the area of active basal freezing in the western part of the ice shelf. Furthermore, the temporal melt rate variability from the satellite estimates exaggerates the range of variability at both seasonal and inter-annual time scales with any correspondence between the in-situ and remotely derived inter-annual variability being limited to a single site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Background Divergent Moisture Flux on the Frequency of North Pacific Atmospheric Rivers

The frequency of North Pacific atmospheric rivers (ARs) affects water supply and flood risk over western North America. Thus, understanding factors that affect the variability of landfalling AR frequency is of scientific and societal importance. This study aims at identifying the sources of the moisture for North Pacific ARs and assessing how different modes of variability modulate these sources. To this end, the sources and variability of the background divergent component of the integrated moisture flux (DIVT) in ARs are identified using MERRA reanalysis. It is shown that in the boreal winter, this background DIVT in ARs is related to the outflow from the subsidence over the subtropics which transports moisture northward, while in summer it is related to the Asian monsoon and it transports moisture northwestward. This leads to a seasonal northwest/southeast movement of the AR frequency climatology. At the intra-seasonal scale, propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation introduces an anti-clockwise rotation of the background DIVT, with northward transport in phases 1 and 2, westward in 3 and 4, southward in 5 and 6 and eastward in 7 and 8, making landfall over the west coast of North America most likely during the last two phases. Similarly, El Niño Southern Oscillation variability also affects the frequency of ARs through modulation of the westerly background DIVT, favoring landfall over the US west coast during strong El Niño phases. It is shown that in general the likelihood of AR landfall over the western US is correlated with the zonal background DIVT over northeastern Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)

Abstract. Large-scale interaction between the three tropical ocean basins is an area of intense research that is often conducted through experimentation with numerical models. A common problem is that modeling groups use different experimental setups, which makes it difficult to compare results and delineate the role of model biases from differences in experimental setups. To address this issue, an experimental protocol for examining interaction between the tropical basins is introduced. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) consists of experiments in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to follow observed values in selected basins. There are two types of experiments. One type, called standard pacemaker, consists of simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations in selected basins during a historical simulation. The other type, called pacemaker hindcast, consists of seasonal hindcast simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations during 12-month forecast periods. TBIMIP is coordinated by the Climate and Ocean – Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR) Research Focus on Tropical Basin Interaction. The datasets from the model simulations will be made available to the community to facilitate and stimulate research on tropical basin interaction and its role in seasonal-to-decadal variability and climate change.

Richter, Ingo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract. We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50° S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr-1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr-1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr-1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr-1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ultra-clean and smoky marine boundary layers frequently occur in the same season over the southeast Atlantic

We study 41 d with daily median surface accumulation mode aerosol particle concentrations below 50 cm -3 (ultra-clean conditions) observed at Ascension Island (ASI; 7.9° S, 14.4° W) between June 2016 and October 2017 as part of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign. Interestingly, these days occur during a period of great relevance for aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions, the southeast Atlantic (SEATL)biomass-burning season (approximately June–October). That means that these critical months can feature both the highest surface aerosol numbers, from smoke intrusion into the marine boundary layer, as well as the lowest. While carbon monoxide and refractory black carbon concentrations on ultra-clean days do not approach those on days with heavy smoke, they also frequently exceed background concentrations calculated in the non-burning season from December 2016 to April 2017. This is evidence that even what become ultra-clean boundary layers can make contact with and entrain from an overlying SEATL smoke layer before undergoing a process of rapid aerosol removal. Because many ultra-clean and polluted boundary layers observed at Ascension Island during the biomass burning season follow similar isobaric back trajectories, the variability in this entrainment is likely more closely tied to the variability in the overlying smoke rather than large-scale horizontal circulation through the boundary layer. Since exceptionally low accumulation mode aerosol numbers at ASI do not necessarily indicate the relative lack of other trace pollutants, this suggests the importance of regional variations in what constitutes an “ultra-clean” marine boundary layer. Finally, surface drizzle rates, frequencies and accumulation – as well as retrievals of liquid water path– all consistently tend toward higher values on ultra-clean days. This implicates enhanced coalescence scavenging in low clouds as the key driver of ultra-clean events in the southeast Atlantic marine boundary layer. These enhancements occur against and are likely mediated by the backdrop of a seasonal increase in daily mean cloud fraction and daily median liquid water path over ASI, peaking in September and October in both LASIC years. Therefore the seasonality in ultra-clean day occurrence seems directly linked to the seasonality in SEATL cloud properties. These results highlight the importance of two-way aerosol–cloud interactions in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.

Patel, Pralit L.↗