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At least 253 records · Page 14

Evaluating 3 decades of precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin from a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract. Convection-permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have recently become tractable for applications at multi-decadal timescales. These types of models have tremendous utility for water resource studies, but better characterization of precipitation biases is needed, particularly for water-resource-critical mountain regions, where precipitation is highly variable in space, observations are sparse, and the societal water need is great. This study examines 34 years (1987–2020) of RCM precipitation from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; v3.8.1), using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS; CFSv2) initial and lateral boundary conditions and a 1 km × 1 km innermost grid spacing. The RCM is centered over the Upper Colorado River basin, with a focus on the high-elevation, 750 km2 East River watershed (ERW), where a variety of high-impact scientific activities are currently ongoing. Precipitation is compared against point observations (Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry or SNOTEL), gridded climate datasets (Newman, Livneh, and PRISM), and Bayesian reconstructions of watershed mean precipitation conditioned on streamflow and high-resolution snow remote-sensing products. We find that the cool-season precipitation percent error between WRF and 23 SNOTEL gauges has a low overall bias (x^ = 0.25 %, s = 13.63 %) and that WRF has a higher percent error during the warm season (x^ = 10.37 %, s = 12.79 %). Warm-season bias manifests as a high number of low-precipitation days, though the low-resolution or SNOTEL gauges limit some of the conclusions that can be drawn. Regional comparisons between WRF precipitation accumulation and three different gridded datasets show differences on the order of ± 20 %, particularly at the highest elevations and in keeping with findings from other studies. We find that WRF agrees slightly better with the Bayesian reconstruction of precipitation in the ERW compared to the gridded precipitation datasets, particularly when changing SNOTEL densities are taken into account. The conclusions are that the RCM reasonably captures orographic precipitation in this region and demonstrates that leveraging additional hydrologic information (streamflow and snow remote-sensing data) improves the ability to characterize biases in RCM precipitation fields. Error characteristics reported in this study are essential for leveraging the RCM model outputs for studies of past and future climates and water resource applications. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other watersheds and model configurations. Hourly 1 km × 1 km precipitation and other meteorological outputs from this dataset are publicly available and suitable for a wide variety of applications.

Geology↗

KNaCK-SLAM: Kinematic Navigation and Cartography Knapsack Velocity-aided LiDAR Inertial Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM)

As manned missions return to the Moon and continue on to Mars in the near future, surface navigation and mapping in extremely low solar illumination and unstructured environments without navigation aids like Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) becomes more important than even. This work explores the use of LiDAR-based Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) to solve those problems. A LiDAR-based SLAM system be deployed as a self-contained instrument independent of external sensor inputs, and can operate in unlit environments where Vision-based SLAM system are inoperable. Furthermore, the advent of chip-scale frequency modulated continuous wave (FMCW) LiDAR technology provides Doppler-velocity information for each sensed point in the scene, which can be used to further constrain localization error in the SLAM front-end. Here we discuss the development of SLAM algorithm that makes use of the unique velocity and range sensing capabilities of FMCW-LiDAR based sensors for rover and kinematic (i.e. person-mounted) mobile navigation and terrain mapping applications for surface exploration and scientific investigations.

Kyle Miller↗

Segmented mirror coarse phasing with a dispersed fringe sensor: experiments on NGST's wavefront control testbed

A piston sensing and control algorithm for the segmented mirror coarse phasing using a dispersed fringe sensor (DFS) has been developed for Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) wavefront sensing and control. The DFS can detect residual piston errors as large as order of a depth-of-focus and can phase the segment mirrors with an accuracy less than 0.1 micron, which is within the capture range of the fine phasing for NGST. A series of experiments has been carried out on the NGST's Wavefront Control Testbed (WCT) to validate the modeling results, evaluate the DFS performance, and systematically explore the factors that affect the DFS performance. This paper reports the testbed results for several critical issues of DFS performance, including DFS dynamic range, accuracy, fringe visibility, and the effects of segment mirror aberrations.

Space↗

Error analysis of bent ray radio occultation measurments

There are two types of experimental measurement errors of the Doppler data associated with the radio occultation, random and systematic. Random errors are due to thermal noise in the transmission channel, and the phase lock loop, and quantization error in the digital circuitry. These are called noise type errors. The systematic errors are due to geometric uncertainty and equipment phase instability. Considered is the amount of uncertainty, due to random measurement errors, in the refractivity profiles reconstructed by this type of indirect sensing experiment. A class of refractivity profiles is defined which approximately fit the set of measured data. Bounds are placed on the extent of this class of solution profiles. To accomplish this, the sensivity of the reconstructed refractivity profiles to errors in the measured quantity and the statistics of the errors in the measurement are examined.

Saintgermain, R. L.↗

Software Suite to Support In-Flight Characterization of Remote Sensing Systems

A characterization software suite was developed to facilitate NASA's in-flight characterization of commercial remote sensing systems. Characterization of aerial and satellite systems requires knowledge of ground characteristics, or ground truth. This information is typically obtained with instruments taking measurements prior to or during a remote sensing system overpass. Acquired ground-truth data, which can consist of hundreds of measurements with different data formats, must be processed before it can be used in the characterization. Accurate in-flight characterization of remote sensing systems relies on multiple field data acquisitions that are efficiently processed, with minimal error. To address the need for timely, reproducible ground-truth data, a characterization software suite was developed to automate the data processing methods. The characterization software suite is engineering code, requiring some prior knowledge and expertise to run. The suite consists of component scripts for each of the three main in-flight characterization types: radiometric, geometric, and spatial. The component scripts for the radiometric characterization operate primarily by reading the raw data acquired by the field instruments, combining it with other applicable information, and then reducing it to a format that is appropriate for input into MODTRAN (MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission), an Air Force Research Laboratory-developed radiative transport code used to predict at-sensor measurements. The geometric scripts operate by comparing identified target locations from the remote sensing image to known target locations, producing circular error statistics defined by the Federal Geographic Data Committee Standards. The spatial scripts analyze a target edge within the image, and produce estimates of Relative Edge Response and the value of the Modulation Transfer Function at the Nyquist frequency. The software suite enables rapid, efficient, automated processing of ground truth data, which has been used to provide reproducible characterizations on a number of commercial remote sensing systems. Overall, this characterization software suite improves the reliability of ground-truth data processing techniques that are required for remote sensing system in-flight characterizations.

Stanley, Thomas↗

Simultaneous Water Vapor and Dry Air Optical Path Length Measurements and Compensation with the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer

The Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer uses a near-infrared camera to measure the optical path length variations between the two AO-corrected apertures and provide high-angular resolution observations for all its science channels (1.5-13 microns). There is however a wavelength dependent component to the atmospheric turbulence, which can introduce optical path length errors when observing at a wavelength different from that of the fringe sensing camera. Water vapor in particular is highly dispersive and its effect must be taken into account for high-precision infrared interferometric observations as described previously for VLTI/MIDI or the Keck Interferometer Nuller. In this paper, we describe the new sensing approach that has been developed at the LBT to measure and monitor the optical path length fluctuations due to dry air and water vapor separately. After reviewing the current performance of the system for dry air seeing compensation, we present simultaneous H-, K-, and N-band observations that illustrate the feasibility of our feed forward approach to stabilize the path length fluctuations seen by the LBTI nuller uses a near-infrared camera to measure the optical path length variations between the two AO-corrected apertures and provide high-angular resolution observations for all its science channels (1.5-13 microns). There is however a wavelength dependent component to the atmospheric turbulence, which can introduce optical path length errors when observing at a wavelength different from that of the fringe sensing camera. Water vapor in particular is highly dispersive and its effect must be taken into account for high-precision infrared interferometric observations as described previously for VLTI MIDI or the Keck Interferometer Nuller. In this paper, we describe the new sensing approach that has been developed at the LBT to measure and monitor the optical path length fluctuations due to dry air and water vapor separately. After reviewing the current performance of the system for dry air seeing compensation, we present simultaneous H-, K-, and N-band observations that illustrate the feasibility of our feed forward approach to stabilize the path length fluctuations seen by the LBTI nuller.

which can introduce optical path length errors whe↗

A new skin friction balance and selected measurements

A new skin friction balance with moving belt has been developed for measurement of the surface shear stress component in the direction of belt motion. The device is described in this paper with typical measurement results. This instrument is symmetric in design with small moving mass negligible internal friction. It is 3.8 cm high, 3.8 cm long and 2.1 cm wide, with the sensing surface 0.7 cm wide and 1.5 cm long, and it can be made in various sizes. The unique design of this instrument has reduced some of the errors associated with conventional floating-element balances. The instrument can use various sensing systems and the output signal is a linear function of the wall shear stress. Measurements show good agreement with data obtained by the floating element balances and flat plate prediction techniques. Dynamic measurements have been made in a limited range. The overall uncertainty of measurement is estimated to be +/- 2 percent.

Vakili, A. D.↗

Human Research Program Space Human Factors Engineering (SHFE) Standing Review Panel (SRP)

The Space Human Factors Engineering (SHFE) Standing Review Panel (SRP) evaluated 22 gaps and 39 tasks in the three risk areas assigned to the SHFE Project. The area where tasks were best designed to close the gaps and the fewest gaps were left out was the Risk of Reduced Safety and Efficiency dire to Inadequate Design of Vehicle, Environment, Tools or Equipment. The areas where there were more issues with gaps and tasks, including poor or inadequate fit of tasks to gaps and missing gaps, were Risk of Errors due to Poor Task Design and Risk of Error due to Inadequate Information. One risk, the Risk of Errors due to Inappropriate Levels of Trust in Automation, should be added. If astronauts trust automation too much in areas where it should not be trusted, but rather tempered with human judgment and decision making, they will incur errors. Conversely, if they do not trust automation when it should be trusted, as in cases where it can sense aspects of the environment such as radiation levels or distances in space, they will also incur errors. This will be a larger risk when astronauts are less able to rely on human mission control experts and are out of touch, far away, and on their own. The SRP also identified 11 new gaps and five new tasks. Although the SRP had an extremely large quantity of reading material prior to and during the meeting, we still did not feel we had an overview of the activities and tasks the astronauts would be performing in exploration missions. Without a detailed task analysis and taxonomy of activities the humans would be engaged in, we felt it was impossible to know whether the gaps and tasks were really sufficient to insure human safety, performance, and comfort in the exploration missions. The SRP had difficulty evaluating many of the gaps and tasks that were not as quantitative as those related to concrete physical danger such as excessive noise and vibration. Often the research tasks for cognitive risks that accompany poor task or information design addressed only part, but not all, of the gaps they were programmed to fill. In fact the tasks outlined will not close the gap but only scratch the surface in many cases. In other cases, the gap was written too broadly, and really should be restated in a more constrained way that can be addressed by a well-organized and complementary set of tasks. In many cases, the research results should be turned into guidelines for design. However, it was not clear whether the researchers or another group would construct and deliver these guidelines.

Wichansky, Anna↗

Ensemble Estimation of Historical Evapotranspiration for the Conterminous U.S.

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget, accounting for the majority of the water available from precipitation. ET is challenging to quantify because of the uncertainties associated with the many ET equations currently in use, and because observations of ET are uncertain and sparse. In this study, we combine information provided by available ET data and equations to produce a new monthly data set for ET for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). These maps are produced from 1895 to 2018 at an 800 m spatial scale, marking a finer resolution than currently available products over this time period. In our approach, the relative performance of a suite of ET equations is assessed using water balance, flux tower, and remotely sensed ET estimates. At the observation locations, we use error distributions to quantify relative weights for the equations and use these in a modified Bayesian model averaging weighted ensemble approach. The relative weights are spatially generalized using a random forest regression, which is applied to wall‐to‐wall explanatory variable maps to generate CONUS‐wide relative weight maps and ensemble estimates. We assess the performance of the ensemble using a reserved subset of the observations and compare this performance against other national‐scale map products for historical to modern ET. The ensemble ET maps are shown to provide an improved accuracy over the alternative comparison products. These ET maps could be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and assessment applications that benefit from a long record, such as the study of periods of water scarcity through time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Adaptive Cyber-Physical Resilience for Building Control Systems

The main goal of the project is to develop an AI-based process layer cybersecurity suite for detection, isolation and mitigation of cyber-attack effects on operation of building energy management systems (BEMS). The following constituent key technologies were developed under the program towards fulfilling the program objectives: (1) developed a high fidelity BEMS testbed for generation of training data and validation of developed technologies; (2) developed a physics informed ML based attack detection and localization module (ADL) capable of detecting high impact stealthy attacks (HISA - attacks causing 30% energy utilization but no immediate visible impact otherwise) with 98% accuracy; (3) developed a methodology to determine ’representative days’ to limit the data required for training; (4) developed a virtual sensing system that can reconstruct affected sensors with 10% error for the same HISA set; (5) developed a resilient model predictive control system that can continue operation of the BEMS without jeopardizing stability for the HISA set; and (6) integrated and deployed all the constituent modules and demonstrated the efficacy of the technology in real-time in a hardware in loop simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Minimax control of a system with process uncertainty in substate space

The control of a single input-single output plant with parameter uncertainty was approached using a minimax technique. A linear time invariant controller results which requires only partial state feedback and is optimal in the sense that it minimizes a quadratic criterion involving tracking error, control, and parameter uncertainty. Bounded input-bounded output stability is guaranteed provided the transfer function has only left half plane zeros. If uncertainties are bounded, it is always possible to stabilize the system when sufficient control amplitude is available. The number of states required to generate the control is equal to the system order less the number of zeros.

Basuthakur, S.↗

Silicon-Web-Growing Machine

Silicon replenished automatically as web is withdrawn. Semiautomatic silicon-web-growing machine set down in detailed engineering drawings. Melt level sensed with He/Ne laser beam and melt-level error signal used to control motor-driven pellet feeder, speeding up when level is low. System reduces demand upon operator's time.

Duncan, C.↗

DSS 14 antenna calibrations for GSSR/VLA Saturn radar experiments

The DSS 14 pointing and gain were calibrated to support X-band bistatic radar observations of Saturn's rings. The observations used the Goldstone Solar System Radar and the National Radio Astronomy Observatory's Very Large Array (VLA) in Socorro, New Mexico. The pointing calibrations were based on conscan offset data collected during Voyager 1 and 2 support passes. The conscan data show angle-of-arrival sensing with no bias and 0.3 mdeg 1-sigma error. Using the calibrations, demonstrated blind pointing performance on Saturn was less than 3 mdeg 1-sigma error. Meteorological observations at the site were used to reduce elevation errors caused by atmospheric refraction. The techniques used corrected about one-third of the error-poorer than expected performance.

Guiar, C. N.↗

Polarization as a Discriminator of Light-Absorbing Impurities in or Above Snow

This conceptual study presents advanced radiative transfer computations of light polarization originating from a snowpack consisting of nonspherical grains and variable content of light-absorbing impurities, either embedded in the snowpack or (with the same optical properties) lofted above it in the form of atmospheric aerosols. The results highlight the importance of considering shapes other than spherical for the snow grains, which otherwise can lead to non-negligible errors in the retrieval of snow albedo from remote sensing observations. More importantly, it is found that polarimetric measurements provide a means to partition light-absorbing impurities embedded in the snowpack from absorbing aerosols aloft, a task traditionally prohibitive for sensors capable exclusively of measurements of total reflectance. Heritage techniques to obtain snow grain size from shortwave infrared observations of total reflectance are well established, as are those that leverage polarimetric, multiangular observations across the entire optical spectrum to characterize the optical and microphysical properties of atmospheric aerosols. The polarization signatures of near-infrared (e.g., 864 nm) observations carry critical information on snow grain shape. The prospected launch of space-borne polarimeters with proven accuracy, therefore, advocates for the development of data inversion schemes, to boost the accuracy of simultaneous retrievals of atmospheric and surface parameters in the polar and snow-covered regions, critical to climate studies.

light polarization↗

LUVOIR-ECLIPS Closed-Loop Adaptive Optics Performance and Contrast Predictions

One of the primary science goals of the Large UV/Optical/Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR) mission concept is to detect and characterize Earth-like exoplanets orbiting nearby stars with direct imaging. The success of its coronagraph instrument ECLIPS (Extreme Coronagraph for Living Planetary Systems) depends on the ability to stabilize the wavefront from a large segmented mirror such that optical path differences are limited to tens of picometers RMS during an exposure time of a few hours. In order to relax the constraints on the mechanical stability, ECLIPS will be equipped with a wavefront sensing and control (WS\&C) architecture to correct wavefront errors up to temporal frequencies $\gtrsim$1 Hz. These errors may be dominated by spacecraft structural dynamics exciting vibrations at the segmented primary mirror. In this work, we present detailed simulations of the WS\&C system within the ECLIPS instrument and the resulting contrast performance. This study assumes wavefront aberrations based on a finite element model of a simulated telescope with spacecraft structural dynamics. Wavefront residuals are then computed according to a model of the adaptive optics system that includes numerical propagation to simulate a realistic wavefront sensor and an analytical model of the temporal performance. An end-to-end numerical propagation model of ECLIPS is then used to estimate the residual starlight intensity distribution at the science detector. We show that the contrast performance depends strongly on the target star magnitude and the spatio-temporal distribution of wavefront errors from the telescope. In cases with significant vibration, we advocate for the use of laser metrology to mitigate high temporal frequency wavefront errors and increase the mission yield.

Sirbu, Dan↗

Introduction to Penelope

A formal program verification is a (mathematical) proof that a program executed according to its intended model meets some specification. This proves that the algorithm defined by the program is correct in the precise technical sense of being consistent with a particular specification. A program correct in this sense is free from a large and important class of errors, even though its behavior may still produce unintended results--either because the implementation of the programming language itself does not match the model of execution, or because the specification does not correctly express the user's intentions. Penelope is a prototype system for interactively developing and verifying programs that are written in a rich subset of sequential Ada. Penelope can be used to develop a program and its correctness proof incrementally, and in concert with one another. Incrementality is used in a number of ways to help make verification more tractable and more productive. For example, if an already-verified program is modified, one can attempt to prove the modified version by replaying and modifying the original verification. Penelope's specification language, Larch/Ada, belongs to the family of Larch interface languages. Larch/Ada scales up properly, in the sense that it is demonstrably sound to decompose a system hierarchically and reason locally about the implementation of each piece. Penelope has been applied in various demonstration projects--for specification (guidance control, distributed operating systems), verification (of off-the-shelf code), and formal development (by non-expert as well as expert users). Some features of Penelope have been embodied in Ada Wise, a lint-like non-interactive tool that warns of the potential for certain dynamic semantic errors in Ada programs.

Guaspari, David↗

Analysis and quantification of errors in the geometric correction of satellite images

The quantitative use of remote sensing satellite images in many applications requires that the geometric distortion inherent in these images be corrected, or rectified, to a desired map projection. The most widely used technique relies on ground control points to empirically determine a mathematical coordinate transformation to correct the geometry. In this paper, using the method of least squares, expressions for the accuracy of the geometric transformation and of the rectification of the satellite image to a map projection are derived. Explicit relations between the global accuracy of the transformation and the number, location, and local accuracy of the ground control points are obtained. The results are applied to the correction of a Landsat MSS image.

Ford, G. E.↗

Ground Validation of TRMM 3B43 V7 Precipitation Estimates Over Colombia. Part I: Monthly and Seasonal Timescales

In this study, we validate precipitation estimates remotely sensed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) at monthly and seasonal timescales, during the period 1998–2015, by calculating and analyzing diverse error metrics between the 3B43 V7 product and in situ measurements from 1,180 rain gauges over Colombia, of which at least 987 are fully independent of TRMM. We explore the existence of spatiotemporal patterns to assess the performance of 3B43 V7 over the five major natural regions of Colombia: Caribbean, Pacific, Andes, Orinoco and Amazon. The results show that 3B43 V7 product is able to capture the phase of the annual cycle of monthly mean precipitation, but the performance is not good for the amplitude, in particular over the Andes and Pacific regions owing to complex climatic and topographic conditions. In general, 3B43 V7 exhibits good performance in the low‐lying and plain Amazon, Orinoco and Caribbean regions. Over the Andes region, characterized by complex topography, overestimation errors are identified [root mean squared error (RMSE) ≥83.59 mm·month−1 and relative bias (BIAS) ≥4.69%], whereas the extremely wet rainfall regime of the Pacific region is largely underestimated (RMSE ≥253.52 mm ·month−1 and BIAS ≤−11.75%). These errors are greater during the wet seasons when the metrics reach worse scores than those reported in similar studies worldwide. Occurrence analyses showed that 3B43 V7 misses very frequent light rainfall events and less frequent but very heavy storms, which contribute to the overall underestimation (overestimation) observed over the Pacific (Andes) region. The error characteristics identified and quantified in this study confirm the well‐documented limitations of remote precipitation sensing and constitute a warning about major challenges that complex climatic and physiographic features can impose on satellite rainfall missions.

Columbia↗