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At least 253 records · Page 14

Multi-Frequency Investigation into Scattering from Vegetation over the Growth Cycle

In this investigation, we aim to collect and use time-series multi-frequency microwave data over winter wheat during entire growth cycle to characterize vegetation dynamics and to quantify its effects on soil moisture retrievals. We plan to incorporate C-band radar and VHF receiver within the existing L-band radarradiometer system called ComRAD (SMAPs ground based simulator). With C-bands ability to sense vegetation details and VHFs root-zone soil moisture within ComRADs footprint, we will be able to test our discrete scatterer vegetation models and parameters at various surface conditions. The purpose of this study is to determine optical depth and effective scattering albedo of vegetation of a given type (i.e. winter wheat) at various stages of growth that are need to refine soil moisture retrieval algorithms being developed for the SMAP mission.

Lang, R. H.↗

The International Heat Stress Genotype Experiment for Modeling Wheat Response to Heat: Field Experiments and AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations

The data set contains a portion of the International Heat Stress Genotype Experiment (IHSGE) data used in the AgMIP-Wheat project to analyze the uncertainty of 30 wheat crop models and quantify the impact of heat on global wheat yield productivity. It includes two spring wheat cultivars grown during two consecutive winter cropping cycles at hot, irrigated, and low latitude sites in Mexico (Ciudad Obregon and Tlaltizapan), Egypt (Aswan), India (Dharwar), the Sudan (Wad Medani), and Bangladesh (Dinajpur). Experiments in Mexico included normal (November-December) and late (January-March) sowing dates. Data include local daily weather data, soil characteristics and initial soil conditions, crop measurements (anthesis and maturity dates, anthesis and final total above ground biomass, final grain yields and yields components), and cultivar information. Simulations include both daily in-season and end-of-season results from 30 wheat models.

Wheat; Field Experimental Data; Heat Stress; Simul↗

Seasonal variation of radiance variances from satellite observations Implication of seasonal variation of available potential energy in the stratosphere

Nimbus 5 satellite radiances for the period 1973-74 are used to examine the seasonal variation of available potential energy in the stratosphere in order to provide a further observational basis for a long-term numerical simulation of stratospheric circulation. The maximum value of stratospheric zonal available potential energy, A(Z), in the upper and middle stratosphere shows pronounced variations between winter and summer, while little variation occurs in the lower stratospheric A(Z). The aperiodic occurrence of sudden warmings complicates the seasonal variation of A(Z) and A(E) (eddy available potential energy) in the stratosphere, making the energetics irregular. Time-Fourier analysis reveals that the primary variation of A(Z) and A(E) in the stratosphere is annual and semiannual, respectively.

Chen, T.-C.↗

Comparison of Two Orographical Data Sets for the GLAS Fourth Order GCM

The development of a 2 deg latitude by 2.5 deg longitude version of the GLAS Fourth Order General Circulation Model has necessitated the specification of a correspondingly fine horizontal resolution orographic data set to act as a lower boundary condition for the GCM. The S1 topography attempts to relate the mean areally averaged height of such terrain while the Q3 topography emphasizes the effect of the flow of the tallest peaks in such regions by specifying an exaggerated significant height. In order to assess the relative merits of these two orographic data sets. A series of tests was initiated to evaluate the comparative weather forecasting and climate simulation skills of the GLAS Fourth Order GCM when the S1 and Q3 topographies are applied to the lower boundary. Three sets of Northern Hemispheric winter forecasts at the 2 deg x 2.5 deg resolution indicate that the Q3 topography gives slightly better results over the Northern Hemisphere than does the S1 topography. It is apparent that more forecasts will be necessary at both horizontal resolutions before any definitive conclusions are made regarding the choice of an optimal orographic data set.

Helfand, H. M.↗

Wave-mean flow interaction in the NCAR stratospheric general circulation model

A version of the NCAR General Circulation Model has been developed which extends from the surface into the mesosphere. The model was forced by climatological January sea surface temperatures and insolation and gives a fairly reasonable simulation of the troposphere and stratosphere. The transformed Eulerian formation is used to examine the interaction of the eddies with the mean flow in the winter hemisphere. The essence of the transformed Eulerian formation is an attempt to distinguish between the mean meridional circulation driven by diabatic heating and that driven by eddies. The net effect of eddies can then be determined, and is given by the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence. In practice, this method works reasonably well but is far from perfect. For instance, in the absence of eddy forcing, the winter stratosphere would go to radiative equilibrium and there would be no diabatic heating to drive a mean meridional circulation.

Boville, B. A.↗

Deep optically thin cirrus clouds in the polar regions. I - Infrared extinction characteristics

The spectral data obtained by the infrared interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) flown on Nimbus 4 satellite in 1970 indicated the existence of optically thin ice clouds in the upper troposphere that probably extended into lower stratosphere, in the polar regions, during winter and early spring. The spectral features of these clouds differ somewhat from that of the optically thin cirrus clouds in the tropics. From theoretical simulation of the infrared spectra in the 8-25 micron region, it is inferred that these polar clouds have a vertical stratification in particle size, with larger particles (about 12 microns) in the bottom of the cloud and smaller ones (less than 1 micron) aloft. Radiative transfer calculations also suggest that the equivalent ice-water content of these polar clouds is of the order of 1 mg/sq cm.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Seasonal Variability of Middle Latitude Ozone in the Lowermost Stratosphere Derived from Probability Distribution Functions

We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of characterizing the observed variability. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High (low) potential vorticity at 300 hPa indicates that the tropopause is low (high), and the identification of these two groups is made to account for the dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the ozone distribution from both observations and a three-dimensional model simulation using winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System for transport. Ozone data sets include ozonesonde observations from northern midlatitude stations (1991-96) and midlatitude observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) (1994- 1998). The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause (approximately 380K). The probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources, despite differences in horizontal and vertical resolution and spatial and temporal sampling. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. Results show that during summer, much of the observed variability is explained by the height of the tropopause. During the winter and spring, when the tropopause fluctuations are larger, less of the variability is explained by tropopause height. This suggests that more mixing occurs during these seasons. During all seasons, there is a transition zone near the tropopause that contains air characteristic of both the troposphere and the stratosphere. The relevance of the results to the assessment of the environmental impact of aircraft effluence is also discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗

Inference of Global Mean Temperature Trend and Climate Change from MSU and AMSU

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced MSU (AMSU) radiometers flown on the NOAA operational satellite series are potentially valuable as global temperature monitoring devices. Spencer and Christy pioneered the analysis of mid-tropospheric temperature, given by MSU Channel 2 (Ch 2) at 53.74 GHz, to derive the global temperature trend. Also, in addition to monitoring global temperature, these microwave radiometers have the potential to reveal interannual climate signals in tropics. We have analyzed the data of MSU Ch 2 and AMSU Ch 5 (53.6 GHz) from the NOAA operational satellites for the period 1980 to 2000, utilizing the NOAA calibration procedure. The data are corrected for the satellite orbital drift based on the temporal changes of the on-board warm blackbody temperature. From our analysis, we find that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 Kdecade(sup -1) during 1980 to 2000. From an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the MSU global data, we find that the mid-tropospheric temperature in middle and high latitudes responds to the ENSO forcing during the Northern Hemisphere Winter in a distinct manner. This mid-latitude response is opposite in phase to that in the tropics. This result is in accord with simulations performed with an ECMWF global spectral model. This study shows a potential use of the satellite observations for climatic change.

Prabhakara, Cuddapah↗

The Impact of ENSO and NAO Initial Conditions and Anomalies on the Modeled Response to Pinatubo-Sized Volcanic Forcing

Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 °C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

volcanic eruptions↗

Alaska at the Crossroads of Migration: Space Based Ornithology

Understanding bird migration on a global scale is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Revolutionary advances in remote sensing now provide us with near real-time measurements of atmospheric and land surface conditions at high spatial resolution over entire continents. We use spatially-explicit, individual based bird migration models driven by numerical weather prediction models of atmospheric conditions, dynamic habitat suitability maps derived from remotely sensed land surface conditions, biophysiological models, and biological field data to simulate migration routes, timing, energy budgets, and survival of individual birds and populations. Long-distance migratory birds travel annually between breeding grounds in Alaska and wintering grounds in Latin Amierica. Approximately 25% of these species are potential vectors of Avian Influenza. Alaska is at the crossroads of Asian and New World migratory flyways and is likely to be a point of introduction of Asian H5N1 AI into the western hemisphere. If/when an infected bird is detected, a pressing question will be where was this bird several days ago, and where is it likely to go after it was released from the survey site? Answers to such questions will increase effectiveness of AI surveillance and mitigation measures. From a conservation perspective, Alaska's diverse landscape provides breeding sites for many migrants, and climatic and land surface changes along migratory flyways in the western hemisphere may reduce bird survival and physical condition upon arrival at Alaskan breeding territories, success and migrant populations.

Deppe, Jill↗

Toward More Realistic Simulation and Prediction of Dust Storms on Mars

Major (regional and global)dust storms dominate weather and climate variability on present-day Mars. Absorption and scattering of visible and IR radiation by dust strongly affect the thermal state of the thin Mars atmosphere, while dust provides condensation nuclei for water and CO2 cloud particles, which also affect radiative fluxes. Global dust storms (GDS) occur ~three times per Mars decade and to date have been observed in only northern fall and winter,when the global circulation is strongest. Tenfold increases in column dust opacity are typical during GDS, with intense vertical motions transporting dust to far higher altitudes than usual. The key processes and feedbacks that produce GDS remain poorly understood, hence current atmospheric models fail to self-consistently simulate observed dust storm activity. This means we have no predictive capability for when GDS may occur, either now or in Mars’s past. And crucially, due to the huge impact of GDS on the atmosphere and surface, our lack of ability to simulate realistic dust storms has major implications for Mars science and exploration: from understanding the present climate (§2.1),to modeling past climates and water cycles (§2.2), to exploring how wind, water, and dust cycles varied over time to interpret geology and assess potential habitability(§2.3), to quantifying and mitigating risks posed to Mars missions (§2.4)

Claire E Newman↗

Influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Mesospheric Temperature

Using the middle atmosphere temperature data set observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite experiment between 2002 and 2012, and temperatures simulated by the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model version 3.5 (WACCM3.5) between 1953 and 2005, we studied the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on middle atmosphere temperature during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) wintertime. For the first time, a significant winter temperature response to ENSO in the middle mesosphere has been observed, with an anomalous warming of approximately 1.0 K/MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) in the tropics and an anomalous cooling of approximately 2.0 K/MEI in the NH middle latitudes. The observed temperature responses to ENSO in the mesosphere are opposite to those in the stratosphere, in agreement with previous modeling studies. Temperature responses to ENSO observed by SABER show similar patterns to those simulated by the WACCM3.5 model. Analysis of the WACCM3.5 residual mean meridional circulation response to ENSO reveals a significant downwelling in the tropical mesosphere and upwelling in the NH middle and high latitudes during warm ENSO events, which is mostly driven by anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing in the NH mesosphere.

Li, Tao↗

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Irrigated Agriculture; Crop Model; Hydrologic Mode↗

On the Ability of Space- Based Passive and Active Remote Sensing Observations of CO2 to Detect Flux Perturbations to the Carbon Cycle

Space-borne observations of CO2 are vital to gaining understanding of the carbon cycle in regions of the world that are difficult to measure directly, such as the tropical terrestrial biosphere, the high northern and southern latitudes, and in developing nations such as China. Measurements from passive instruments such as GOSAT (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2), however, are constrained by solar zenith angle limitations as well as sensitivity to the presence of clouds and aerosols. Active measurements such as those in development for the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission show strong potential for making measurements in the high-latitude winter and in cloudy regions. In this work we examine the enhanced flux constraint provided by the improved coverage from an active measurement such as ASCENDS. The simulation studies presented here show that with sufficient precision, ASCENDS will detect permafrost thaw and fossil fuel emissions shifts at annual and seasonal time scales, even in the presence of transport errors, representativeness errors, and biogenic flux errors. While OCO-2 can detect some of these perturbations at the annual scale, the seasonal sampling provided by ASCENDS provides the stronger constraint. Plain Language Summary: Active and passive remote sensors show the potential to provide unprecedented information on the carbon cycle. With the all-season sampling, active remote sensors are more capable of constraining high-latitude emissions. The reduced sensitivity to cloud and aerosol also makes active sensors more capable of providing information in cloudy and polluted scenes with sufficient accuracy. These experiments account for errors that are fundamental to the top-down approach for constraining emissions, and even including these sources of error, we show that satellite remote sensors are critical for understanding the carbon cycle.

tropical terrestrial biosphere↗

Simulation of the December 1998 Stratospheric Major Warming

Prior to 1991, major warmings (defined by increasing zonal mean temperatures and zonal mean easterly winds from 60degN to the pole at 10 hPa) typically occurred approximately once every two Arctic winters; a major warming in mid-Dec. 1998 was the first since Feb. 1991. The Dec. 1998 warming was also the second earliest on record. The earliest, and the only other major warming on record before the end of Dec. was in early Dec 1987; prior to that, the earliest was in late Dec./early Jan. 1984-85. The 1984-85 and 1987 warmings resulted in the warmest and weakest lower stratospheric polar vortices in the 20 years before 1998-99. Fig. 1 compares temperatures and vortex strength in 1998-99 with those in the previous 20 years, using the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) record; 1987-88 and 1984-85 are also highlighted. The Dec. 1998 warming had a more pronounced effect on mid-stratospheric temperatures than the Dec. 1987 warming (Fig. 1a), although smaller than that of warmings later in winter (e.g., 1984-85). 10-hPa temperatures fell well below average again in late Jan. 1999 and remained unusually low until an early final warming began in late Feb. 840 K PV gradients (Fig. 1c) set a record minimum in Jan. 1999, but were near average in Feb before the final warming. The effect of the Dec. 1998 warming on lower stratospheric temperatures was comparable to that of other major warmings; there was a brief period of record-high minimum 46-hPa temperatures in early Jan 1999 (Fig. 1b), and temperatures then fell to near average for a short period in mid-Feb. Lower stratospheric PV gradients were the weakest on record during the 1998-99 winter (Fig. 1d). The evolution of the vortex and minimum temperatures during 1998-99 was remarkably similar to that during 1987-88, the only previous year when a major warming was observed before the end of Dec.

Manney, G. L.↗

Chemistry of the global troposphere - Fluorocarbons as tracers of air motion

Winds and convective mixing from a general circulation model of the atmosphere have been applied in a chemical tracer model (CTM) to simulate the global distribution and temporal variability of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The seasonal cycle in moist convection, with maximum activity over continents in summer, leads to an annual cycle in the surface concentration of CFCs. Emissions are retained in the lowest levels of the atmosphere during winter, and surface concentrations peak near sources. In this season, CFCs from European sources are carried by low-level winds into the Arctic. During summer, vertical exchange is more efficient, and pollutants are transported more rapidly to the middle atmosphere. Consequently, concentrations of CFCs during summer are relatively low near the surface and elevated in the middle troposphere. Time series analysis of data from Adrigole, Ireland, indicates that the model accurately simulates long-range transport of air pollution. The model reproduces global distributions and trends for CFC-11 and CFC-12 observed by the ALE experiment; however, subgrid diffusion must be introduced into the model in order to reproduce the observed interhemispheric gradient. Interhemispheric exchange occurs mainly in the upper tropical troposphere, producing a profile which increases with altitude in the Southern Hemisphere, in agreement with observations. The distribution of CFCs is such that it is necessary to apply important corrections to observations at surface stations in order to derive global distributions.

Prather, Michael↗

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Weather disturbances↗

Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Mountainous Northeastern United States

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly approximately 1/ 8 deg) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (1/ 8 deg) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

climatology↗