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At least 253 records · Page 14

A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

Heat events↗

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring.

Saltzman, Barry↗

In-situ release of solar wind gases from lunar soil

A concept is described which has the potential to perform the in situ heating of the lunar regolith in order to release the solar wind gases. The poor thermal conductivity of the lunar soil is increased approximately 100-fold by the introduction of an artificial hydrogen atmosphere at 1 atm pressure enclosed in an inflatable structure. The leakage rate of H2 through the soil is minimal because of the close-packed nature of the soil and the design and operation of the facility.

Wittenberg, Layton J.↗

Pneumatic Proboscis Heat-Flow Probe

Heat flow is a fundamental property of a planet, and provides significant constraints on the abundance of radiogenic isotopes, the thermal evolution and differentiation history, and the mechanical properties of the lithosphere. Heat-flow measurements are also essential in achieving at least four of the goals set out by the National Research Council for future lunar exploration. The heat-flow probe therefore directly addresses the goal of the Lunar Geophysical Network, which is to understand the interior structure and composition of the Moon. A key challenge for heat flow measurement is to install thermal sensors to the depths approximately equal to 3 m that are not influenced by the diurnal, annual, and longer-term fluctuations of the surface thermal environment. In addition, once deployed, the heat flow probe should cause little disturbance to the thermal regime of the surrounding regolith. A heat-flow probe system was developed that has two novel features: (1) it utilizes a pneumatic (gas) approach, excavates a hole by lofting the lunar soil out of the hole, and (2) deploys the heat flow probe, which utilizes a coiled up tape as a thermal probe to reach greater than 3-meter depth. The system is a game-changer for small lunar landers as it exhibits extremely low mass, volume, and simple deployment. The pneumatic system takes advantage of the helium gas used for pressurizing liquid propellant of the lander. Normally, helium is vented once the lander is on the surface, but it can be utilized for powering pneumatic systems. Should sufficient helium not be available, a simple gas delivery system may be taken specifically for the heat flow probe. Either way, the pneumatic heat flow probe system would be much lighter than other systems that entirely rely on the electrical power of the lander.

Zacny, Kris↗

Turbulent heat transfer from a sparsely vegetated surface - Two-component representation

The conventional calculation of heat fluxes from a vegetated surface involving the coefficient of turbulent heat transfer which increases logarithmically with surface roughness, is inappropriate such highly structured surfaces as desert scrub or open forest. An approach is developed here for computing sensible heat flux from sparsely vegetated surfaces, where the absorption of insolation and the transfer of absorbed heat to the atmosphere are calculated separately for the plants and for the soil. This approach is applied to a desert-scrub surface in the northern Sinai, for which the turbulent transfer coefficient of sensible heat flux from the plants is much larger than that from the soil below, as shown by an analysis of plant, soil, and air temperatures. The plant density is expressed as the sum of products (plant-height) x (plant-diameter) of plants per unit horizontal surface area. The solar heat absorbed by the plants is assumed to be transferred immediately to the airflow. The effective turbulent transfer coefficient k(g-eff) for sensible heat from the desert-scrub/soil surface computed under this assumption increases sharply with increasing solar zenith angle, as the plants absorb a greater fraction of the incoming irradiation. The surface absorptivity (the coalbedo) also increases sharply with increasing solar zenith angle, and thus the sensible heat flux from such complex surfaces is a much broader function of time of day than when computed under constant k(g-eff) and constant albedo assumptions.

Otterman, J.↗

Regional-scale estimates of surface moisture availability and thermal inertia using remote thermal measurements

A review is presented of numerical models which were developed to interpret thermal IR data and to identify the governing parameters and surface energy fluxes recorded in the images. Analytic, predictive, diagnostic and empirical models are described. The limitations of each type of modeling approach are explored in terms of the error sources and inherent constraints due to theoretical or measurement limitations. Sample results of regional-scale soil moisture or evaporation patterns derived from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission and GOES satellite data through application of the predictive model devised by Carlson (1981) are discussed. The analysis indicates that pattern recognition will probably be highest when data are collected over flat, arid, sparsely vegetated terrain. The soil moisture data then obtained may be accurate to within 10-20 percent.

Carlson, T. N.↗

Crustal Heat Production and the Thermal Evolution of Mars

The chemical compositions of soils and rocks from the Pathfinder site and Phobos-2 orbital gamma-ray spectroscopy indicate that the Martian crust has a bulk composition equivalent to large-ion lithophile (LIL) and heat-producing element (HPE) enriched basalt, with a potassium content of about 0.5%. A variety of radiogenic isotopic data also suggest that separation of LIL-enriched crustal and depleted mantle reservoirs took place very early in Martian history (greater than 4.0 Ga). Accordingly, if the enriched Martian crust is greater than 30km thick it is likely that a large fraction (up to at least 50%) of the heat-producing elements in Mars was transferred into the crust very early in the planet's history. This would greatly diminish the possibility of early widespread melting of the Martian mantle.

McLennan, Scott M.↗

Crustal Heat Production and the Thermal Evolution of Mars

The chemical composition of soils and rocks from the Pathfinder site and Phobos-2 orbital gamma-ray spectroscopy indicate that the Martian crust has a bulk composition equivalent to large-ion lithophile (LIL) and heat-producing element (K, Th, U) enriched basalt, with a potassium content of about 0.5%. A variety of radiogenic isotope data also suggest that separation of LIL-enriched crust and depleted mantle reservoirs took place very early in Martian history (>4.0 Ga). Accordingly, if the enriched Martian crust is >30 km thick it is likely that a large fraction (up to at least 50%) of the heat-producing elements in Mars was transferred into the crust very early in the planet's history. This would greatly diminish the possibility of early widespread melting of the Martian mantle.

McLennan, Scott M.↗

A New Method for Estimating Bacterial Abundances in Natural Samples using Sublimation

We have developed a new method based on the sublimation of adenine from Escherichia coli to estimate bacterial cell counts in natural samples. To demonstrate this technique, several types of natural samples including beach sand, seawater, deep-sea sediment, and two soil samples from the Atacama Desert were heated to a temperature of 500 C for several seconds under reduced pressure. The sublimate was collected on a cold finger and the amount of adenine released from the samples then determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV absorbance detection. Based on the total amount of adenine recovered from DNA and RNA in these samples, we estimated bacterial cell counts ranging from approx. l0(exp 5) to l0(exp 9) E. coli cell equivalents per gram. For most of these samples, the sublimation based cell counts were in agreement with total bacterial counts obtained by traditional DAPI staining. The simplicity and robustness of the sublimation technique compared to the DAPI staining method makes this approach particularly attractive for use by spacecraft instrumentation. NASA is currently planning to send a lander to Mars in 2009 in order to assess whether or not organic compounds, especially those that might be associated with life, are present in Martian surface samples. Based on our analyses of the Atacama Desert soil samples, several million bacterial cells per gam of Martian soil should be detectable using this sublimation technique.

Glavin, Daniel P.↗

Thermal control systems for low-temperature heat rejection on a lunar base

One of the important issues in the lunar base architecture is the design of a Thermal Control System (TCS) to reject the low temperature heat from the base. The TCS ensures that the base and all components inside are maintained within the operating temperature range. A significant portion of the total mass of the TCS is due to the radiator. Shading the radiation from the sun and the hot lunar soil could decrease the radiator operating temperature significantly. Heat pumps have been in use for terrestrial applications. To optimize the mass of the heat pump augmented TCS, all promising options have to be evaluated and compared. Careful attention is given to optimizing system operating parameters, working fluids, and component masses. The systems are modeled for full load operation.

Sridhar, K. R.↗

An investigation of some mechanical and thermal properties of lunar simulant materials heated at 2.45 GHz

Lunar simulant material was fabricated to simulate Apollo 11, Apollo 15, and Apollo 16 soils. The approximate compositions which these soils simulate are given. Samples of each soil simulate were fabricated into right circular cylinders, placed into a microwave reaction cavity, and heated using 2.45 GHz radiation to a particular processing temperature at which it was held for a prescribed length of time. Examples are given of two microwave heating programs for these simulant samples. Upon completion of thermal processing, each sample had its top and bottom surfaces polished. A technique was employed which looks at hardness data to determine the fracture toughness of a material and then relates this to thermal shock resistance. Some advantages of this technique are its low cost for analysis and thermal shock resistance as a function of initial sample orientation in the microwave field can be determined. Samples were prepared for testing and results are expected. At the same time, other samples are currently being investigated using scanning electron microscopy to determine their microstructures.

Meek, T. T.↗

Small Scale Polygons and the History of Ground Ice on Mars

Recent progress on polygon modeling has focused on the diameter and surface relief that we expect of thermal-contraction polygons in martian permafrost. With this in mind, we developed a finite-element model of thermal-contraction-crack behavior in permafrost in a martian climate. This model was generated from a finite element code by Jay Melosh (called TECTON) originally developed for terrestrial and planetary crustal-deformation studies. We adapted this model to martian permafrost by including time (and temperature) dependent rheologies, boundary conditions, and isotropic thermal-contraction, as well as several small adaptations to a martian environment. We tested our model extensively, including comparison to an analytic solution of pre-fracture stress. We recently published an analysis of two potential sources of water for forming the recent gullies. In this work we first evaluated the potential for near-surface ground ice (in the top meter or so of soil) to melt under conditions of solar heating on sloped surfaces at high obliquity, utilizing both thermal and diffusion-based ground-ice-stability models; our results suggested that the ground ice will sublimate, and the ice table will recede to greater depths before the melting temperature can be reached. An exception can occur only for extremely salt-rich ice, depressing the freezing point.

Mellon, Michael T.↗

Iron Mineralogy and Aqueous Alteration on Mars from the MER Moessbauer Spectrometers

The twin Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit (Gusev crater) and Opportunity (Meridiani Planum) used MIMOS II Moessbauer spectrometers to analyze martian surface materials in the first application of extraterrestrial Moessbauer spectroscopy. The instruments acquired spectra that identified the speciation of Fe according to oxidation state, coordination state, and mineralogical composition and provided quantitative information about the distribution of Fe among oxidation states, coordination states, and Fe-bearing phases. A total of 12 unique Fe-bearing phases were identified: Fe(2+) in olivine, pyroxene, and ilmenite; Fe(2+) and Fe(3+) in magnetite and chromite; Fe(3+) in nanophase ferric oxide (npOx), hematite, goethite, jarosite, an unassigned Fe3+ sulfate, and an unassigned Fe(3+) phase associated with jarosite; and Fe(0) in kamacite. Weakly altered basalts at Gusev crater (SO3 = 2.5 +/- 1.4 wt.% and Fe(3+)/Fe(sub T) = 0.24 +/- 0.11) are widespread on the Gusev plains and occur in less abundance on West Spur and Husband Hill in the Columbia Hills. Altered low-S rocks (SO3 = 5.2 +/- 2.0 wt.% and Fe(3+)/Fe(sub T) = 0.63 +/- 0.18) are the most common type of rock in the Columbia Hills. Ilm-bearing, weakly altered basalts were detected only in the Columbia Hills, as was the only occurrence of chromite in an altered low-S rock named Assemblee. Altered high-S rocks (SO3 > 14.2 wt.% and Fe(3+)/Fe(sub T) = 0.83 +/- 0.05) are the outcrop rocks of the ubiquitous Burns formation at Meridiani Planum. Two Fe(0)-bearing rocks at Meridiani Planum (Barberton and Heat Shield Rock) are meteorites. Laguna Class soil is weakly altered (SO3 = 6 +/- 2 wt.% and Fe(3+)/Fe(sub T) = 0.29 +/- 0.08) and widely distributed at both Gusev crater and Meridiani Planum, implying efficient global mixing processes or a global distribution of precursor rocks with comparable Fe mineralogical compositions. Paso Robles Class soil is heavily altered (SO3 approx. 31 wt.% and Fe(3+)/Fe(sub T) = 0.83 +/- 0.05), is relatively uncommon, and occurs as subsurface deposits in the Columbia Hills. Berry Class soil is also heavily altered (SO3 = 5 +/- 1 wt.% and Fe(3+)/Fe(sub T) = 0.60 +/- 0.13) and occurs at Meridiani Planum as lag deposits, at the crests of aeolian bedforms, and as isolated pockets on outcrop surfaces. Magnetite is identified as the strongly magnetic component in martian soil. Jarosite (in the Burns outcrop at Meridiani Planum) and goethite (in Clovis Class rocks at Gusev crater) are mineralogical markers for aqueous processes because they contain the hydroxide anion (OH(-)) as an essential part of their structure. Each yields approx.10 wt.% H2O upon dehydroxylation. The presence of Fe sulfates on opposite sides of Mars is evidence that aqueous processes under acid sulfate conditions are or were common. Except for Independence Class rocks in the Columbia Hills, the overall Fe mineralogical compositions and similar basaltic bulk chemical compositions (calculated with respect to S = Cl = 0) of the population of altered rocks analyzed by MER imply isochemical alteration of basaltic precursors at low water-to-rock ratios.

Morris, Richard V.↗

Global Patterns of Crop Yield Stability Under Additional Nutrient and Water Inputs

Agricultural production must increase to feed a growing and wealthier population, as well as to satisfy increasing demands for biomaterials and biomass-based energy. At the same time, deforestation and land-use change need to be minimized in order to preserve biodiversity and maintain carbon stores in vegetation and soils. Consequently, agricultural land use needs to be intensified in order to increase food production per unit area of land. Here we use simulations of AgMIP's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 to assess implications of input-driven intensification (water, nutrients) on crop yield and yield stability, which is an important aspect in food security. We find region- and crop-specific responses for the simulated period 1980+/-2009 with broadly increasing yield variability under additional nitrogen inputs and stabilizing yields under additional water inputs (irrigation), reflecting current patterns of water and nutrient limitation. The different models of the GGCMI ensemble show similar response patterns, but model differences warrant further research on management assumptions, such as variety selection and soil management, and inputs as well as on model implementation of different soil and plant processes, such as on heat stress, and parameters. Higher variability in crop productivity under higher fertilizer input will require adequate buffer mechanisms in trade and distribution/storage networks to avoid food price volatility.

Maize↗

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-47 2015 using the National Climate Assessment-Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah Version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125 degreesx0.125 degrees forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at p<0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends, and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the Upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 in the West and South; net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/m(exp2)/yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 in the West; U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from West to East. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%; Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, RMSE decreasing only 0.17 to 0.16 W/m(exp 2)/yr, while trend detection increased 2%; NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gaged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Snow depth↗

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980–2015 using the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125° 3 0.125° forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth, and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test at p < 0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 mm/yr in the West and South, net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/sq. m yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 W/sq. m yr in the West, and U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from west to east. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%. Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, with RMSE decreasing only from 0.17 to 0.16 W/sq. m yr, while trend detection increased 2%. NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gauged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Michael F. Jasinski↗

Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.

Jana Kolassa↗

Extraction and Capture of Water from Martian Regolith Experimental Proof-of-Concept

Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0:Lists in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) as enabling for robust human Mars missionsLO2LCH4 ascent propulsion 25,000 kg oxygen from atmosphere for ascent and life support Atmospheric based ISRU processes less operationally complex than surface based limited concept evaluation to date and Mars surface water property and distribution uncertainty would not allow [Mars soil water processing] to be base lined at this time Limited Concept Evaluation to Date Lunar regolith O2 extraction processing experience Lunar regolith is fluidized and heated to high temperatures with H2 to produce H2O from iron-bearing minerals Mars similarity concept: Soil placed in fluidized bed reactor Heated to moderate temperatures Inert gas flow used to fluidize the bed and help with water desorption Challenges: High-temperature dusty seals Working gas requires downstream separation and recycling to reduce consumables loss Batch process heating thermally inefficient.

in situ resource utilization↗