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Space Weather Impacts on Spacecraft Design and Operations in Auroral Charging Environments

Spacecraft in low altitude, high inclination (including sun-synchronous) orbits are widely used for remote sensing of the Earth s land surface and oceans, monitoring weather and climate, communications, scientific studies of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere, and a variety of other scientific, commercial, and military applications. These systems are episodically exposed to environments characterized by a high flux of energetic (approx.1 to 10 s kilovolt) electrons in regions of very low background plasma density which is similar in some ways to the space weather conditions in geostationary orbit responsible for spacecraft charging to kilovolt levels. While it is well established that charging conditions in geostationary orbit are responsible for many anomalies and even spacecraft failures, to date there have been relatively few such reports due to charging in auroral environments. This presentation first reviews the physics of the space environment and its interactions with spacecraft materials that control auroral charging rates and the anticipated maximum potentials that should be observed on spacecraft surfaces during disturbed space weather conditions. We then describe how the theoretical values compare to the observational history of extreme charging in auroral environments and discuss how space weather impacts both spacecraft design and operations for vehicles on orbital trajectories that traverse auroral charging environments.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

High Performance Parallel Methods for Space Weather Simulations

This is the final report of our NASA AISRP grant entitled 'High Performance Parallel Methods for Space Weather Simulations'. The main thrust of the proposal was to achieve significant progress towards new high-performance methods which would greatly accelerate global MHD simulations and eventually make it possible to develop first-principles based space weather simulations which run much faster than real time. We are pleased to report that with the help of this award we made major progress in this direction and developed the first parallel implicit global MHD code with adaptive mesh refinement. The main limitation of all earlier global space physics MHD codes was the explicit time stepping algorithm. Explicit time steps are limited by the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition, which essentially ensures that no information travels more than a cell size during a time step. This condition represents a non-linear penalty for highly resolved calculations, since finer grid resolution (and consequently smaller computational cells) not only results in more computational cells, but also in smaller time steps.

Hunter, Paul↗

Radiation Belt Environment Model: Application to Space Weather and Beyond

Understanding the dynamics and variability of the radiation belts are of great scientific and space weather significance. A physics-based Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model has been developed to simulate and predict the radiation particle intensities. The RBE model considers the influences from the solar wind, ring current and plasmasphere. It takes into account the particle drift in realistic, time-varying magnetic and electric field, and includes diffusive effects of wave-particle interactions with various wave modes in the magnetosphere. The RBE model has been used to perform event studies and real-time prediction of energetic electron fluxes. In this talk, we will describe the RBE model equation, inputs and capabilities. Recent advancement in space weather application and artificial radiation belt study will be discussed as well.

Fok, Mei-Ching H.↗

Space Weather

This slide presentation reviews the hazards and effects of space weather on earth and in space to humans and manmade systems.

Gallagher, Dennis L.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Insights into Regolith Evolution from TEM Studies of Space Weathering of Itokawa Particles

Exposure to solar wind irradiation and micrometeorite impacts alter the properties of regolith materials exposed on airless bodies. However, estimates of space weathering rates for asteroid regoliths span many orders of magnitude. Timescales for space weathering processes on airless bodies can be anchored by analyzing surface samples returned by JAXA's Hayabusa mission to asteroid 25143 Itokawa. Constraints on timescales of solar flare particle track accumulation and formation of solar wind produced ion-damaged rims yield information on regolith dynamics.

Berger, Eve L.↗

Real Time Space Weather Support for Chandra X-Ray Observatory Operations

NASA launched the Chandra X-ray Observatory in July 1999. Soon after first light in August 1999, however, degradation in the energy resolution and charge transfer efficiency of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) x-ray detectors was observed. The source of the degradation was quickly identified as radiation damage in the charge-transfer channel of the front-illuminated CCDs, by weakly penetrating ( soft , 100 500 keV) protons as Chandra passed through the Earth s radiation belts and ring currents. As soft protons were not considered a risk to spacecraft health before launch, the only on-board radiation monitoring system is the Electron, Proton, and Helium Instrument (EPHIN) which was included on Chandra with the primary purpose of monitoring energetic solar particle events. Further damage to the ACIS detector has been successfully mitigated through a combination of careful mission planning, autonomous on-board radiation protection, and manual intervention based upon real-time monitoring of the soft-proton environment. The AE-8 and AP-8 trapped radiation models and Chandra Radiation Models are used to schedule science operations in regions of low proton flux. EPHIN has been used as the primary autonomous in-situ radiation trigger; but, it is not sensitive to the soft protons that damage the front-illuminated CCDs. Monitoring of near-real-time space weather data sources provides critical information on the proton environment outside the Earth s magnetosphere due to solar proton events and other phenomena. The operations team uses data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to provide near-real-time monitoring of the proton environment; however, these data do not give a representative measure of the soft-proton (< 1 MeV) flux in Chandra s high elliptical orbit. The only source of relevant measurements of sub-MeV protons is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) aboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite at L1, with real-time data provided by NOAA s Space Weather Prediction Center. This presentation describes the radiation mitigation strategies to minimize the proton damage in the ACIS CCD detectors and the importance of real-time data sources that are used to protect the ACIS detector system from space weather events.

O'Dell, Stephen L.↗

Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

Fujita, Shigeru↗

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

Using Space Weather Variability in Evaluation the Radiation Environment Specifications for NASA's Constellation Program

Hardware design environments for NASA's Constellation Program-the Vision for Space Exploration program to design and build new vehicles for servicing low Earth orbit and the Moon and beyond-have been developed that are necessarily conservative in nature to assure robust hardware design and development required to build space systems which will meet operational goals in a wide range of space environments, This presentation will describe the rationale used to establish the space radiation and plasma design environments specified for a variety of applications including total ionizing radiation dose, dose rate effects, and spacecraft charging and will compare the design environments with "space weather" variability to evaluate the applicability of the design environments and potential vulnerabilities of the system to extreme space weather events.

Coffey, Victoria N.↗

A Small Mission Concept to the Sun-Earth Lagrangian L5 Point for Innovative Solar, Heliospheric and Space Weather Science

We present a concept for a small mission to the Sun-Earth Lagrangian L5 point for innovative solar, heliospheric and space weather science. The proposed INvestigation of Solar-Terrestrial Activity aNd Transients (INSTANT) mission is designed to identify how solar coronal magnetic fields drive eruptions, mass transport and particle acceleration that impact the Earth and the heliosphere. INSTANT is the first mission designed to (1) obtain measurements of coronal magnetic fields from space and (2) determine coronal mass ejection (CME) kinematics with unparalleled accuracy. Thanks to innovative instrumentation at a vantage point that provides the most suitable perspective view of the Sun-Earth system, INSTANT would uniquely track the whole chain of fundamental processes driving space weather at Earth. We present the science requirements, payload and mission profile that fulfill ambitious science objectives within small mission programmatic boundary conditions.

Lavraud, B.↗

Simulation of the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME Was Earth Directed?

Extreme space weather events are known to cause adverse impacts on critical modern day technological infrastructure such as high-voltage electric power transmission grids. On 23 July 2012, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) spacecraft observed in situ an extremely fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled 0.96 astronomical units (approx. 1 AU) in about 19 h. Here we use the SpaceWeather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to perform a simulation of this rare CME.We consider STEREO-A in situ observations to represent the upstream L1 solar wind boundary conditions. The goal of this study is to examine what would have happened if this Rare-type CME was Earth-bound. Global SWMF-generated ground geomagnetic field perturbations are used to compute the simulated induced geoelectric field at specific ground-based active INTERMAGNET magnetometer sites. Simulation results show that while modeled global SYM-H index, a high-resolution equivalent of the Dst index, was comparable to previously observed severe geomagnetic storms such as the Halloween 2003 storm, the 23 July CME would have produced some of the largest geomagnetically induced electric fields, making it very geoeffective. These results have important practical applications for risk management of electrical power grids.

SPACE WEATHER↗

The Role of Solar Wind Ion Processing in Space Weathering of Olivine: Unraveling the Paradox of Laboratory Irradiation Results Compared to Observations of Natural Samples

Ion irradiation by the solar wind plays a major role in space weathering. Among its multiple effects are ion damage and implantation processes that alter the crystal structure as well as chemical composition of the outer few 100 nanometers of space exposed regolith grains. This forms a portion of the space weathered rims on lunar and asteroidal regolith grains that is uniquely ion-processed. One aspect of these ion-processed grain rims is the possible link between their widths, and degree of ion damage, and the length of exposure of their host grain on the topmost surface of lunar and asteroidal regoliths. Ultimately, quantifying this link relies on laboratory ion irradiation experiments to calibrate the ion fluence or dose at which different degrees and depths of ion damage occur. Here we discuss evidence, specifically from the mineral olivine, suggesting there may be limitations in extrapolating the results of laboratory ion irradiation experiments to natural ion irradiation by the solar wind.

Christoffersen, R.↗

Addressing the Influence of Space Weather on Airline Navigation

The advent of satellite-based augmentation systems has made it possible to navigate aircraft safely using radio signals emitted by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as the Global Positioning System. As a signal propagates through the earth's ionosphere, it suffers delay that is proportional to the total electron content encountered along the raypath. Since the magnitude of this total electron content is strongly influenced by space weather, the safety and reliability of GNSS for airline navigation requires continual monitoring of the state of the ionosphere and calibration of ionospheric delay. This paper examines the impact of space weather on GNSS-based navigation and provides an overview of how the Wide Area Augmentation System protects its users from positioning error due to ionospheric disturbances

airline navigation↗

Effects of Space Weathering on Reflectance Spectra of Ureilites: First Studies

Ureilites are differentiated meteorites (ultramafic rocks interpreted to be mantle residues) that contain as much carbon as the most carbon-rich carbonaceous chondrites (CCs). Reflectance spectra of ureilites are similar to those of some CCs. Hence, ureilitic asteroids may accidentally be categorized as primitive because their spectra could resemble those of C-complex asteroids, which are thought to be CC-like. We began spectral studies of progressively laser-weathered ureilites with the goals of predicting UV-VIS-IR spectra of ureilitic asteroids, and identifying features that could distinguish differentiated from primitive dark asteroids. Space weathering has not previously been studied for ureilites, and, based on space weathering studies of CCs and other C-rich materials, it could significantly alter their reflectance spectra.

REFLECTANCE SPECTRA UREILITES↗

The Role of Solar Wind Hydrogen in Space Weathering: Insights from Laboratory-Irradiated Northwest Africa 12008

Micrometeoroid impacts, solar wind plasma interactions, and regolith gardening drive the complicated and nuanced mechanism of space weathering (or optical maturation); a process by which a material’s optical properties are changed as a result of chemical and physical alterations at the surface of grains on airless bodies. Reddened slopes, attenuated absorption bands, and an overall reduction in albedo in the visible and near-IR wavelength ranges are primarily the result of native iron nanoparticle (npFe0) production within glassy rims that form from sputtering and vaporization. The sizes and abundance of these particles provide information about the relative surface exposure age of a particular grain. In addition, many studies have indicated that composition greatly affects the rate at which optical maturation occurs. Despite our understanding of how npFe0 affects optical signatures, the relative roles of micrometeoroid bombardment and solar wind interactions remains undetermined. To simulate the early effects of weathering by the solar wind and to determine thresholds for optical change with respect to a given mineral phase, we irradiated a fine-grained lunar basalt with 1 keV H+ to a fluence of 6.4 x 1016 H+ per sq.cm. Surface alterations within four phases have been evaluated using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). We found that for a given fluence of H+, the extent of damage acquired by each grain was dependent on its composition. No npFe(0) was produced in any of the phases evaluated in this study. These results are consistent with many previous studies conducted using ions of similar energy, but they also provide valuable information about the onset of space weathering and the role of the solar wind during the early stages of optical maturation.

Shusterman, M. L.↗