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DOE OSTI2021

Topological Phases in Graphene Nanoribbons Tuned by Electric Fields

Graphene nanoribbons (GNRs) possess distinct symmetry-protected topological phases. Here we show, through first-principles calculations, that by applying an experimentally accessible transverse electric field, certain boron and nitrogen periodically codoped GNRs have tunable topological phases. The tunability arises from a field-induced band inversion due to an opposite response of the conduction- and valence-band states to the electric field. With a spatially varying applied field, segments of GNRs of distinct topological phases are created, resulting in a field-programmable array of topological junction states, each may be occupied with charge or spin. Our findings not only show that electric field may be used as an easy tuning knob for topological phases in quasi-one-dimensional systems, but also provide new design principles for future GNR-based quantum electronic devices through their topological characters.

1-dimensional systems↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fabricated ecosystem workshop: bridging laboratory to field science. Workshop report.

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) scientists held a workshop at the DOE BER Genomic Sciences PI meeting on the use of Fabricated Ecosystems in Washington D.C. on February 25th, 2020. Ecosystem fabrication is an approach to creating controlled microbial, soil and plant ecologies within a laboratory setting that enable discovery and dissection of environmental variables, activities, and interactions. At Berkeley Lab, we are developing two systems which span spatial and temporal scales — the EcoFAB and the EcoPOD. The participants of the workshop discussed the potential applications and challenges of using fabricated ecosystems as tools to tackle BER-relevant scientific questions. Specifically, they identified (1) research challenges that would benefit from ready access to this infrastructure (2) identified and prioritized technical challenges that currently limit these systems and (3) discussed how to use them to bridge the gap between lab and field research. To ensure that the fabricated ecosystems , in particular the larger-scale EcoPODs, are of use to as much of the BER community as possible, the workshop participants made the following recommendations: 1. Produce publicly available datasets for a set of control variables. Use for benchmarking, and assessing reproducibility between systems. 2. Implement data standards. 3. Develop/leverage nano/micro sensors and in situ root imaging. 4. Encourage the development of interdisciplinary teams to develop EcoPOD experiments. 5. Develop fabricated ecosystems with size and complexity that sits between the EcoFAB and EcoPOD to accelerate use and access.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Satellite Data Applications for Sustainable Energy Transitions

Transitioning to a sustainable energy system poses a massive challenge to communities, nations, and the global economy in the next decade and beyond. A growing portfolio of satellite data products is available to support this transition. Satellite data complement other information sources to provide a more complete picture of the global energy system, often with continuous spatial coverage over targeted areas or even the entire Earth. We find that satellite data are already being applied to a wide range of energy issues with varying information needs, from planning and operation of renewable energy projects, to tracking changing patterns in energy access and use, to monitoring environmental impacts and verifying the effectiveness of emissions reduction efforts. While satellite data could play a larger role throughout the policy and planning lifecycle, there are technical, social, and structural barriers to their increased use. We conclude with a discussion of opportunities for satellite data applications to energy and recommendations for research to maximize the value of satellite data for sustainable energy transitions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

LHC signals for KK graviton from an extended warped extra dimension

We analyze signals at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) from production and decay of Kaluza-Klein (KK) gravitons in the context of “extended” warped extra-dimensional models, where the standard model (SM) Higgs and fermion fields are restricted to be in-between the usual ultraviolet/Planck brane and a ~ O(10) TeV (new, “intermediate”) brane, whereas the SM gauge fields (and gravity) propagate further down to the ~ O(TeV) infrared brane. Such a framework suppresses flavor violation stemming from KK particle effects, while keeping the KK gauge bosons and gravitons accessible to the LHC. We find that the signals from KK graviton are significantly different than in the standard warped model. This is because the usually dominant decay modes of KK gravitons into top quark, Higgs and longitudinal W/Z particles are suppressed by the above spatial separation between these two sets of particles, thus other decay channels are allowed to shine themselves. In particular, we focus on two novel decay channels of the KK graviton. The first one is the decay into a pair of radions, each of which decays (dominantly) into a pair of SM gluons, resulting in a resonant 4-jet final state consisting of two pairs of dijet resonance. On the other hand, if the radion is heavier and/or KK gluon is lighter, then the KK graviton mostly decays into a KK gluon and a SM gluon. The resulting KK gluon has a significant decay branching fraction into radion and SM gluon, thereby generating (again) a 4-jet signature, but with a different underlying event topology, i.e., featuring now three different resonances. We demonstrate that the High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) has sensitivity to KK graviton of (up to) ~ 4 TeV in both channels, in the specific model with only gluon field (and gravity) propagating in the extended bulk, whereas it is unlikely to have sensitivity in the standard dijet resonance search channel from KK graviton decay into two gluons.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

GROWdb US River Systems - Samples

GROW Overview We developed the Genome Resolved Open Watersheds database (GROWdb), which aims to increase genomic sampling and understanding of global river microbiomes. An emphasis of GROWdb is to create a publicly available and ever-expanding microbial genome database that is focused on rivers while being interoperable with databases from other ecosystems. GROWdb is based on a network-of-networks approach to move beyond a small collection of well-studied rivers, towards a spatially distributed, global network of systematic observations. GROWdb represents the first microbial, river-focused resource parsed at various scales from genes to MAGs to community level including expression and potential based measurements that will be of interest to microbiologists, ecologists, geochemists, hydrologists, and modelers. Dataset Acknowledgement GROWdb contains data from various research campaigns, please acknowledge the following data generators, as appropriate: WHONDRS derived genomes or samples - include this statement in your acknowledgements: “This study used data from the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) under the River Corridor Science Focus Area (SFA) at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that was generated at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Joint Genome Institute User Facility. PNNL is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute for the U.S. DOE under Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL01830. The SFA is supported by the U.S. DOE, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), Environmental System Science (ESS) Program.” Total Samples loaded onto this Narrative: 178 Note: Not all GROW samples may be loaded into KBase Data Availability The data underlying GROWdb are accessible across various platforms to ensure all levels of data structure are widely available. First, all reads and MAGs are publicly hosted on National Center for Biotechnology (NCBI) under Bioproject PRJNA946291. Second, all data related data presented here including MAG annotations, extended data tables, phylogenetic tree files, antibiotic resistance gene database files, and MAG abundance tables are available in Zenodo (link). Beyond the flat database files listed above, our aim for GROWdb was to maximize data use by making the data available in searchable and interactive platforms including the National Microbiome Data Collaborative (NMDC) data portal, the Department of Energy’s Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase), and a GROW specific user interface released here, GROWdb Explorer. Each platform provides different ways to interact with GROWdb: NMDC GROWdb formed a pilot project for the NMDC. Specifically, individual GROWdb datasets (metagenomes, metatranscriptomes, etc) are easily accessible and searchable through the NMDC data portal, where they are systematically connected to each other and to a rich suite of sample information and standard analysis results, following Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data practices. KBase GROWdb is publicly available within KBase, including samples (this Narrative), MAGs, and corresponding genome scale metabolic models. Access within KBase allows for immediate access and reuse of data, including comparison to private data using KBase’s 500+ analysis tools. Other linked narratives in KBase: GROW Metagenome Assembled Genomes (MAGs) GROW Metabolic Models GROWdb Explorer GROWdb data is also explorable through a graphical user interface built through the Colorado State University Geospatial Centroid (https://geocentroid.shinyapps.io/GROWdatabase/), allowing users to search and graph microbial and spatial data simultaneously. In summary, this microbial genome resource represents the first publicly available genome collection from rivers and offers data that can be leveraged across microbiome studies. GROWdb is an expanding repository to incorporate and unify global river multi-omic data for the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative Infrared-to-Terahertz Nanospectroscopy of Semiconductors

Semiconductor technology now employs few-nanometer features, necessitating tools probing electronic properties on the same length scale. While the concentration of free charge carriers is routinely measured, the scattering rate remains challenging to access at the nanoscale. Here, we present ultrabroadband (5–50 THz) synchrotron infrared nanospectroscopy as a quantitative metrology tool for semiconductors. This technique can determine both the charge carrier concentration and scattering rate with percent-level accuracy, and it is inherently capable of ∼10 nm spatial resolution. We study silicon with different doping levels and confirm the method’s accuracy by statistical analysis and comparison with established far-field infrared spectroscopy. Near-field measurements systematically reveal charge-carrier concentrations ∼30% lower than far-field values, consistent with increased surface sensitivity and surface depletion. Our work establishes synchrotron infrared nanospectroscopy as a precise tool for quantitative nanoscale semiconductor characterization and paves the way toward all-optical characterization of surface depletion effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100

Overview Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyze global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Details This dataset includes Xanthos outputs forced by the ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate forcing (1850 - 2100). There are 30 scenarios consists of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCM) and 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Each folder is named as cmip6_{gcm}_{ensemble-member}_{ssp}. 10 CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6 3 SSP-RCP Scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 The table below summarizes the details of output variables within each scenario folder. | Output Variable | File Short Name | Spatial Resolution | Unit | | ----------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | --------------------- | | Runoff | q | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Runoff | Basin_runoff | GCAM basin | km3/month | | Runoff | Country_runoff | Country | km3/month | | Runoff | GCAMRegion_runoff | GCAM region | km3/month | | Streamflow | avgchflow | 0.5x0.5 degree | m3/second | | Potential Evapotranspiration | pet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Actual Evapotranspiration | aet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Accessible Water | accessible_water | GCAM basin | km3/year | | Hydropower Generation | actual_hydro | GCAM region | EJ/year |

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2023

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2025

Immersive Scientific Visualization of Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Characteristics Using Virtual Reality

Immersive visualization is changing how we explore, communicate, and understand complex scientific systems. In nuclear energy, an area in which data are often multidimensional, time-dependent, and difficult to interpret, virtual reality (VR) represents a powerful and intuitive informational medium. This work introduces a VR-based platform that visualizes the post-shutdown behavior and waste management lifecycle of molten-salt reactors (MSRs), a next-generation reactor type with unique operational and safety characteristics. The platform, built in Unity, is streamed on the Meta Quest 3 headset. It transforms high-fidelity simulation data into an interactive, immersive experience. Users can explore time-dependent reactor characteristics such as nuclide decay, which is a key factor for evaluating reactor waste strategies. The datasets were generated using the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) framework and then processed through ParaView scripting for smooth integration into Unity. From a visualization standpoint, the platform emphasizes spatial storytelling, temporal exploration, and user-centered interaction. Users can navigate 3D reactor geometries, slice through volumetric data, and manipulate time to observe how physical phenomena evolve. Real-scale rendering and embodied interaction make the experience feel tangible. The interface is designed to be accessible, even to those without nuclear or simulation expertise. This lowers the barrier for stakeholders, policymakers, and the general public, while still supporting expert analysis and collaborative decision-making. This work shows how immersive visualization can function as both a scientific tool and a communication interface. By integrating simulation, processing, and visualization into a cohesive workflow, we offer a scalable framework for immersive scientific storytelling. The modular design supports future extensions to other reactor types and lifecycle stages, from shutdown to long-term storage, making the platform adaptable for both research and outreach.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Linking transportation agent-based model ($\mathrm{ABM}$) outputs with micro-urban social types ($\mathrm{MUSTs}$) via typology transfer for improved community relevance

The human relationship with transportation is shaped by social, economic, demographic, and urban form variables, or socio-spatial factors. The spatial dynamics of these are key to generating and interpreting outputs of transportation models that are most relevant for a community and the diverse mobility needs of its members. Here we present a typology transfer framework, grounded in socio-spatial dynamics shaping people's mobility, to take transportation-themed regional mobility model outcomes, in this case from two agent-based models (ABMs), and extrapolate them to other cities, with less time and resource intensity than new ABM development. The typology transfer process first identifies micro-urban social types (MUSTs) using socio-spatial factors, then defines city types based on spatial patterns of MUSTs to assess across which cities transfer results are likely to best hold. Lastly, a typology transfer multiplier matrix extrapolates a given variable, in our case the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric, to another city. The full process demonstration uses ABM results from Chicago (POLARIS model) and San Francisco (BEAM model), applying them to New York City. We discuss how MEP or other outputs can be appropriately estimated and used for integrated, human-centered mobility analysis. Key findings include that this MUST framework of user-defined dependent and independent variables allows tailoring ABM results and interpretations to specific community needs and data availability. Findings clarify that positive outcomes can be targeted towards user groups, based on sociospatial characteristics, using a typology approach, such as inclusive access to mobility choices, transportation affordability, and greater efficiency in resource use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

AMM: Adaptive Multilinear Meshes

Adaptive representations are increasingly indispensable for reducing the in-memory and on-disk footprints of large-scale data. Usual solutions are designed broadly along two themes: reducing data precision, e.g., through compression, or adapting data resolution, e.g., using spatial hierarchies. Additionally, recent research suggests that combining the two approaches, i.e., adapting both resolution and precision simultaneously, can offer significant gains over using them individually. However, there currently exist no practical solutions to creating and evaluating such representations at scale. In this work, we present a new resolution-precision-adaptive representation to support hybrid data reduction schemes and offer an interface to existing tools and algorithms. Through novelties in spatial hierarchy, our representation, Adaptive Multilinear Meshes (AMM), provides considerable reduction in the mesh size. AMM creates a piecewise multilinear representation of uniformly sampled scalar data and can selectively relax or enforce constraints on conformity, continuity, and coverage, delivering a flexible adaptive representation. AMM also supports representing the function using mixed-precision values to further the achievable gains in data reduction. We describe a practical approach to creating AMM incrementally using arbitrary orderings of data and demonstrate AMM on six types of resolution and precision datastreams. By interfacing with state-of-the-art rendering tools through VTK, we demonstrate the practical and computational advantages of our representation for visualization techniques. With an open-source release of our tool to create AMM, we make such evaluation of data reduction accessible to the community, which we hope will foster new opportunities and future data reduction schemes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Continuous Emulation and Multiscale Visualization of Traffic Flow Using Stationary Roadside Sensor Data

With the advent of the next-generation traffic monitoring systems, there has been a significant increase in the spatial-temporal resolution of vehicle mobility data in many cities. Effective analysis and visualization of such data can provide transportation planners with data-driven insights, which can facilitate the understanding of multiscale traffic dynamics. In this paper, we present a web-based traffic emulator for emulating and visualizing near-real-time and historical traffic flows on highways using data from road-side sensors. To construct a continuous traffic flow, the emulator adopts an analytical pipeline that can (a) integrate traffic data collected from discrete road-side radar detection sensors, (b) interpolate traffic conditions (vehicle speed and volume) on unmeasured road segments based on traffic flow theory, and (c) generate lane-specific vehicle trajectories and movements using a mathematically optimized representation of the road network. Our app also provides an integrated visual workflow that allows users to explore the interconnected traffic dynamics using an appropriate traffic flow visualization selected based on the level of detail. We devise two innovative geo-visualization techniques that utilize an animated strips-network representation and a lane usage matrix to visualize lane performances. To ensure a smooth emulation of large-scale traffic flow in an easy-to-access web environment, we implement the emulator using client-side GPU-accelerated techniques. Lastly, we close with a case study that visualizes traffic dynamics of two scenarios - an afternoon peak hour and a traffic accident - in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Our app visualizes the responses of traffic dynamics during different traffic conditions, and to the presence of the traffic accident at different spatial scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effect of crystallite geometries on electrochemical performance of porous intercalation electrodes by multiscale operando investigation

Lithium-ion batteries are yet to realize their full promise because of challenges in the design and construction of electrode architectures that allow for their entire interior volumes to be reversibly accessible for ion storage. Electrodes constructed from the same material and with the same specifications, which differ only in terms of dimensions and geometries of the constituent particles, can show surprising differences in polarization, stress accumulation and capacity fade. Here, using operando synchrotron X-ray diffraction and energy dispersive X-ray diffraction (EDXRD), we probe the mechanistic origins of the remarkable particle geometry-dependent modification of lithiation-induced phase transformations in V2O5 as a model phase-transforming cathode. A pronounced modulation of phase coexistence regimes is observed as a function of particle geometry. Specifically, a metastable phase is stabilized for nanometre-sized spherical V2O5 particles, to circumvent the formation of large misfit strains. Spatially resolved EDXRD measurements demonstrate that particle geometries strongly modify the tortuosity of the porous cathode architecture. Greater ion-transport limitations in electrode architectures comprising micrometre-sized platelets result in considerable lithiation heterogeneities across the thickness of the electrode. These insights establish particle geometry-dependent modification of metastable phase regimes and electrode tortuosity as key design principles for realizing the promise of intercalation cathodes. Designing electrode architectures for Li-ion batteries that can be reversibly accessible for ion storage can be challenging. Using operando techniques the mechanistic origin of lithiation-induced phase transformations in a V2O5 model cathode is now clarified.

Luo, Yuting↗

DOE OSTI2026

Passivation‐Induced Species Dynamics and Microstructural Evolution in Solid‐State Lithium–Sulfur Cathodes

Solid-state lithium–sulfur (SSLS) batteries offer high theoretical energy density, yet their practical viability is hindered by poor sulfur utilization and limited rechargeability. At the core of this challenge lies the passivating nature of Li 2 S, which restricts ionic and electronic transport, suppresses interfacial activity, and severely impedes the reversibility of electrochemical reactions. In this study, we elucidate the mechanistic origins of these limitations by resolving how charge and discharge species form, grow, and spatially evolve within the cathode microstructure under varied current densities and electrode compositions. By resolving the species distribution at the particle scale and coupling it with Raman spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction, we demonstrate how Li 2 S formation induces localized surface passivation that progressively limits electrochemical accessibility within the cathode microstructure. Sulfur utilization is found to be strongly governed by the interplay between sulfur loading, residual porosity, and interfacial architecture. High sulfur contents result in buried, electrochemically isolated domains due to poor solid electrolyte (SE) percolation, while low sulfur contents trigger SE degradation via parasitic reactions. The resulting sulfur-porosity maps delineate the mechanistic boundaries between reversible and transport-limited regimes, offering actionable design guidance for SSLS cathodes with enhanced sulfur utilization.

electrode microstructure↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adsorption Hysteresis Under Control: Tuning Host–Guest Interactions via a Genetic Algorithm

Mesoporous adsorbent materials offer a large volumetric capacity; however, cyclic adsorption/desorption processes in these systems often suffer from hysteresis and may require a significant pressure swing to access this capacity. To mitigate hysteresis, a proposed strategy is to include nucleation sites on the walls of the mesoporous material to facilitate droplet and bubble formation, lowering the free energy barriers to the respective phase transitions. It is unclear, however, what combination of adsorbate− adsorbent interactions and spatial patterning would be beneficial for a given application, considering that improvements to some sorption properties may come at the expense of other attributes. To understand these interconnected observables, we examine two model systems, planar-slit and cylindrical pores with tunable interaction sites, using GPU-accelerated transition matrix Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations provide a free energy map of the pressure−adsorption space in a matter of minutes, which we use to track adsorption isotherm characteristics as a function of adsorbent properties. We then leverage the rapid acquisition of simulation data to construct a genetic algorithm to iteratively modify interaction sites of the slit-pore wall to minimize the hysteresis of this system without sacrificing uptake. We find that the adsorption branch of the isotherm is easily modulated via the average host−guest interaction strength, but desorption is only adjustable if there is a suitable bubble nucleation site. Within the context of a slit-pore system, we identify relative interaction strengths and patch sizes required to gain control over both branches of the hysteresis loop.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

A proximity‐based image‐processing algorithm for colloid assignment in segmented multiphase flow datasets

Summary Colloidal transport and deposition are of both environmental and engineering importance. Easier access to x‐ray microtomography (XMT) coupled with improved imaging resolution has made XMT a unique and viable tool for visualizing and quantifying these processes. Currently, there is scant information in the literature addressing colloid segmentation and analysis in saturated and unsaturated porous media, in particular related to spatial partitioning of colloids. To support this need, an approach to assign segmented colloidal particles and aggregates to different partitioning classes based on their proximity to different phases is presented here. The method uses different markers for each attachment site (e.g. wetting‐nonwetting phase interfaces). An example XMT dataset from a drainage experiment is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the image processing algorithms. Flow conditions, and fluid and colloid properties, can thus be compared to the behaviour of colloids within the porous medium. This algorithm can help elucidate colloidal deposition mechanisms and the importance of different attachment sites, explore the importance of fluid properties, as well as the arrangement and shape of the colloids.

BRUECK, C. L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurements from mobile surface vehicles during the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE)

Abstract. Between 14 and 20 July 2018, small unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) were deployed to the San Luis Valley of Colorado (USA) alongside surface-based remote sensors, in situ sensors, and radiosonde systems as part of the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE). The measurements collected as part of LAPSE-RATE targeted quantities related to enhancing our understanding of boundary layer structure, cloud and aerosol properties and surface–atmosphere exchange and provide detailed information to support model evaluation and improvement work. Additionally, intensive intercomparison between the different unmanned aircraft platforms was completed. The current paper describes the observations obtained using three different types of surface-based mobile observing vehicles. These included the University of Colorado Mobile UAS Research Collaboratory (MURC), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Severe Storms Laboratory Mobile Mesonet, and two University of Nebraska Combined Mesonet and Tracker (CoMeT) vehicles. Over the 1-week campaign, a total of 143 h of data were collected using this combination of vehicles. The data from these coordinated activities provide detailed perspectives on the spatial variability of atmospheric state parameters (air temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind) throughout the northern half of the San Luis Valley. These datasets have been checked for quality and published to the Zenodo data archive under a specific “community” setup for LAPSE-RATE (https://zenodo.org/communities/lapse-rate/, last access: 21 January 2021) and are accessible at no cost by all registered users. The primary dataset DOIs are https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3814765 (CU MURC measurements; de Boer et al., 2020d), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3738175 (NSSL MM measurements; Waugh, 2020), and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3838724 (UNL CoMeT measurements; Houston and Erwin, 2020).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Future water scarcity is a global concern with significant impacts on the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods consumed around the world, so disruptions resulting from land and water scarcity in LAC are a source of global supply chain risk. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could drive that scarcity to emerge is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity impacts in LAC is challenging given the multisector dynamic interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across different spatial scales. We use scenario discovery to explore the drivers of future water scarcity, considering assumptions related to climate, socioeconomics, and the EWL sectors. Understanding what factors drive uncertainty across outcomes can help stakeholders in targeting long-term solutions and future data collection efforts. To illuminate these dynamics, we use a database consisting of a large ensemble of scenarios representing diverse worlds simulated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across the scenarios using three metrics: (1) physical water scarcity, (2) water price, and (3) crop profit. We find that physical water scarcity and water price are driven primarily by reservoir storage capacity assumptions, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability and accessibility. Crop profit is driven by a combination of water supply and demand assumptions, which emphasizes the complex nature of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for development, water basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high levels of severity and uncertainty across the future scenarios for at least one of the metrics. We find that the drivers of extreme scarcity vary spatially and across the metrics, further highlighting the heterogeneity of the region and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity vulnerability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗