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At least 253 records · Page 14

Software For Multivariate Bayesian Classification

PHD general-purpose classifier computer program. Uses Bayesian methods to classify vectors of real numbers, based on combination of statistical techniques that include multivariate density estimation, Parzen density kernels, and EM (Expectation Maximization) algorithm. By means of simple graphical interface, user trains classifier to recognize two or more classes of data and then use it to identify new data. Written in ANSI C for Unix systems and optimized for online classification applications. Embedded in another program, or runs by itself using simple graphical-user-interface. Online help files makes program easy to use.

Saul, Ronald↗

Preliminary work toward the development of a dimensional tolerance standard for rapid prototyping

Rapid prototyping is a new technology for building parts quickly from CAD models. It works by slicing a CAD model into layers, then by building a model of the part one layer at a time. Since most parts can be sliced, most parts can be modeled using rapid prototyping. The layers themselves are created in a number of different ways - by using a laser to cure a layer of an epoxy or a resin, by depositing a layer of plastic or wax upon a surface, by using a laser to sinter a layer of powder, or by using a laser to cut a layer of paper. Rapid prototyping (RP) is new, and a standard part for use in comparing dimensional tolerances has not yet been chosen and accepted by ASTM (the American Society for Testing Materials). Such a part is needed when RP is used to build parts for investment casting or for direct use. The objective of this project was to start the development of a standard part by using statistical techniques to choose the features of the part which show curl - the vertical deviation of a part from its intended horizontal plane.

Kennedy, W. J.↗

Integrated Logistics Support Analysis of the International Space Station Alpha, Background and Summary of Mathematical Modeling and Failure Density Distributions Pertaining to Maintenance Time Dependent Parameters

The process of predicting the values of maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as mean time between failures (MTBF) over time must be one that will not in turn introduce uncontrolled deviation in the results of the ILS analysis such as life cycle costs, spares calculation, etc. A minor deviation in the values of the maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as MTBF over time will have a significant impact on the logistics resources demands, International Space Station availability and maintenance support costs. There are two types of parameters in the logistics and maintenance world: a. Fixed; b. Variable Fixed parameters, such as cost per man hour, are relatively easy to predict and forecast. These parameters normally follow a linear path and they do not change randomly. However, the variable parameters subject to the study in this report such as MTBF do not follow a linear path and they normally fall within the distribution curves which are discussed in this publication. The very challenging task then becomes the utilization of statistical techniques to accurately forecast the future non-linear time dependent variable arisings and events with a high confidence level. This, in turn, shall translate in tremendous cost savings and improved availability all around.

Sepehry-Fard, F.↗

Improved Regolith-Landform and Geological Mapping using AIRSAR Data as an Aid to Mineral Exploration in the North-Eastern Goldfields Region, Western Australia

The distinctive contribution of AIRSAR data in characterizing the regolith-landforms in a relatively vegetation free environment are discussed. AIRSAR frame processed data were initially MAF-cleaned to enhance the signal content of the data before geocoding to AMG coordinates. Colors in a three frequency single polarization combination image C-, L- P- bands, and in an enhancement of pedestal height, relate directly to the scale of surface roughness of the various regolith units Examination of the AIRSAR enhancements reveals that in mafic terrain, and to a lesser extent, in felsic terrain, AIRSAR data provides discrimination between the principle geomorphic regimes, relict, erosional and depositional. A multivariate statistical technique called an all-possible subsets calculation was used to examine the degree of polarimetric separation between selected regolith-landforms for all combinations of the nine band AIRSAR radar. An unanticipated aspect of the research was the identification on the AIRSAR imagery of previously unmapped structural features.

Tapley, Ian J.↗

Osse Sky Survey Observations for Cycles Three Extreme Red Egret Blazars

The original purpose of this work was to probe EGRET sources of low significance, and to use statistical techniques to construct a log N - log S of sources at greater than 50 MeV. At this writing, the detection significance of EGRET sources is still an issue. Therefore, we shifted our focus to the known EGRET detections. These came in two groups: (a) the known blazars; and (b) the high-Galactic latitude EGRET sources not identified with optical (or radio) counterparts.

Schachter, Jonathan F.↗

Aerosol Transport Over Equatorial Africa

Long-range and inter-hemispheric transport of atmospheric aerosols over equatorial Africa has received little attention so far. Most aerosol studies in the region have focussed on emissions from rain forest and savanna (both natural and biomass burning) and were carried out in the framework of programs such as DECAFE (Dynamique et Chimie Atmospherique en Foret Equatoriale) and FOS (Fires of Savanna). Considering the importance of this topic, aerosols samples were measured in different seasons at 4420 meters on Mt Kenya and on the equator. The study is based on continuous aerosol sampling on a two stage (fine and coarse) streaker sampler and elemental analysis by Particle Induced X-ray Emission. Continuous samples were collected for two seasons coinciding with late austral winter and early austral spring of 1997 and austral summer of 1998. Source area identification is by trajectory analysis and sources types by statistical techniques. Major meridional transports of material are observed with fine-fraction silicon (31 to 68 %) in aeolian dust and anthropogenic sulfur (9 to 18 %) being the major constituents of the total aerosol loading for the two seasons. Marine aerosol chlorine (4 to 6 %), potassium (3 to 5 %) and iron (1 to 2 %) make up the important components of the total material transport over Kenya. Minimum sulfur fluxes are associated with recirculation of sulfur-free air over equatorial Africa, while maximum sulfur concentrations are observed following passage over the industrial heartland of South Africa or transport over the Zambian/Congo Copperbelt. Chlorine is advected from the ocean and is accompanied by aeolian dust recirculating back to land from mid-oceanic regions. Biomass burning products are transported from the horn of Africa. Mineral dust from the Sahara is transported towards the Far East and then transported back within equatorial easterlies to Mt Kenya. This was observed during austral summer and coincided with the dying phase of 1997/98 El Nino.

Gatebe, C. K.↗

The State of Scientific Visualization with Regard to the NASA EOS Mission to Planet Earth

In support of the mission to better understand the dynamics of the global atmosphere, John R. Christy and Nathaniel D. Reynolds investigated a wide range of topics. Christy worked closely with NASA scientist Roy Spencer to develop a data set of precision temperature measurements using the NASA built Microwave Sounding Unit. The data from this effort has received international recognition as they provide a source of precise information for the most difficult of environmental issues in the global climate change arena. In addition, Christy coordinated modeling research with NASA scientist Franklin Robertson with research focusing on the validation of global model output using various satellite data with sophisticated statistical techniques. Reynolds worked with NASA scientist Timothy Miller on idealized flows in a rotating annulus and the application of the results to the general circulation of the atmosphere. Additional work was carried out in investigation of stratospheric ozone fluctuations due to dynamical causes.

Christy, John R.↗

Parametric Cost Modeling of Space Missions Using the Develop New Projects (DMP) Implementation Process

This paper presents an overview of a parametric cost model that has been built at JPL to estimate costs of future, deep space, robotic science missions. Due to the recent dramatic changes in JPL business practices brought about by an internal reengineering effort known as develop new products (DNP), high-level historic cost data is no longer considered analogous to future missions. Therefore, the historic data is of little value in forecasting costs for projects developed using the DNP process. This has lead to the development of an approach for obtaining expert opinion and also for combining actual data with expert opinion to provide a cost database for future missions. In addition, the DNP cost model has a maximum of objective cost drivers which reduces the likelihood of model input error. Version 2 is now under development which expands the model capabilities, links it more tightly with key design technical parameters, and is grounded in more rigorous statistical techniques. The challenges faced in building this model will be discussed, as well as it's background, development approach, status, validation, and future plans.

Rosenberg, Leigh↗

CM and DM in an ISO R and D Environment

ISO 9000 - a common buzz word in industry is making inroads to government agencies. The National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) achieved ISO 9001 certification at each of its nine (9) Centers and Headquarters in 1998-1999. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) was recommended for certification in September 1999. Since then, each of the Centers has been going through the semi-annual surveillance audits. Growing out of the manufacturing industry, successful application of the international quality standard to a research and development (R&D) environment has had its challenges. This paper will address how GRC applied Configuration Management (CM) and Data (or Document) Management (DM) to meet challenges to achieve ISO certification. One of the first challenges was to fit the ISO 9001-1994 elements to the GRC environment. Some of the elements fit well-Management Responsibility (4.1), Internal Audits (4.17), Document and Data Control (4.5). Other elements were not suited or applied easily to the R&D environment-Servicing (4.19), Statistical Techniques (4.20). Since GRC "builds" only one or two items at a time, these elements were considered not applicable to the environment.

Crowley, Sandra L.↗

CRM Assessment: Determining the Generalization of Rater Calibration Training. Summary of Research Report: Gold Standards Training

The extent to which pilot instructors are trained to assess crew resource management (CRM) skills accurately during Line-Oriented Flight Training (LOFT) and Line Operational Evaluation (LOE) scenarios is critical. Pilot instructors must make accurate performance ratings to ensure that proper feedback is provided to flight crews and appropriate decisions are made regarding certification to fly the line. Furthermore, the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Advanced Qualification Program (AQP) requires that instructors be trained explicitly to evaluate both technical and CRM performance (i.e., rater training) and also requires that proficiency and standardization of instructors be verified periodically. To address the critical need for effective pilot instructor training, the American Institutes for Research (AIR) reviewed the relevant research on rater training and, based on "best practices" from this research, developed a new strategy for training pilot instructors to assess crew performance. In addition, we explored new statistical techniques for assessing the effectiveness of pilot instructor training. The results of our research are briefly summarized below. This summary is followed by abstracts of articles and book chapters published under this grant.

Baker, David P.↗

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate

A key question is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectivity of snow is the most important process by which snow cover can impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. The results to date were obtained for model runs with present-day conditions. We are currently analyzing runs made with projected forcings for the 21st century to see if these results are modified in any way under likely scenarios of future climate change. An intriguing new statistical technique involving 'clustering' is developed to assist in this analysis.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

Comparison of Two Methods for Estimating the Sampling-Related Uncertainty of Satellite Rainfall Averages Based on a Large Radar Data Set

The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Analysis of Atmospheric Mesoscale Models for Entry, Descent and Landing

Each Mars Exploration Rover (MER) is sensitive to the martian winds encountered near the surface during the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) process. These winds are strongly influenced by local (mesoscale) conditions. In the absence of suitable wind observations, wind fields predicted by martian mesoscale atmospheric models have been analyzed to guide landing site selection. Two different models were used, the MRAMS model and the Mars MM5 model. In order to encompass both models and render their results useful to the EDL engineering team, a series of statistical techniques were applied to the model results. These analyses cover the high priority landing sites during the expected landing times (1200 to 1500 local time). The number of sites studied is limited by the computational and analysis cost of the mesoscale models.

D M Kass↗

Mesoscale Computational Investigation of Shocked Heterogeneous Materials with Application to Large Impact Craters

The propagation of shock waves through target materials is strongly influenced by the presence of small-scale structure, fractures, physical and chemical heterogeneities. Pre-existing fractures often create craters that appear square in outline (e.g. Meteor Crater). Reverberations behind the shock from the presence of physical heterogeneity have been proposed as a mechanism for transient weakening of target materials. Pre-existing fractures can also affect melt generation. In this study, we are attempting to bridge the gap in numerical modeling between the micro-scale and the continuum, the so-called meso-scale. To accomplish this, we are developing a methodology to be used in the shock physics hydrocode (CTH) using Monte-Carlo-type methods to investigate the shock properties of heterogeneous materials. By comparing the results of numerical experiments at the micro-scale with experimental results and by using statistical techniques to evaluate the performance of simple constitutive models, we hope to embed the effect of physical heterogeneity into the field variables (pressure, stress, density, velocity) allowing us to directly imprint the effects of micro-scale heterogeneity at the continuum level without incurring high computational cost.

Crawford, D. A.↗

Reflectance and Thermal Infrared Spectroscopy of Mars: Relationship Between ISM and TES for Compositional Determinations

Reflectance spectroscopy has demonstrated that high albedo surfaces on Mars contain heavily altered materials with some component of hematite, poorly crystalline ferric oxides, and an undefined silicate matrix. The spectral properties of many low albedo regions indicate crystalline basalts containing both low and high calcium pyroxene, a mineralogy consistent with the basaltic SNC meteorites. The Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) experiment on the Mars Geochemical Surveyor has acquired critical new data relevant to surface composition and mineralogy, but in a wavelength region that is complementary to reflectance spectroscopy. The essence of the completed research was to analyze TES data in the context of reflectance data obtained by the French ISM imaging spectrometer experiment in 1989. This approach increased our understanding of the complementary nature of these wavelength regions for mineralogic determinations using actual observations of the martian surface. The research effort focused on three regions of scientific importance: Syrtis Major-Isidis Basin, Oxia Palus-Arabia, and Valles Marineris. In each region distinct spatial variations related to reflectance, and in derived mineralogic information and interpreted compositional units were analyzed. In addition, specific science questions related to the composition of volcanics and crustal evolution, soil compositions and pedogenic processes, and the relationship between pristine lithologies and weathering provided an overall science-driven framework for the work. The detailed work plan involved colocation of TES and ISM data, extraction of reflectance and emissivity spectra from areas of known reflectance variability, and quantitative analysis using factor analysis and statistical techniques to determine the degree of correspondence between these different wavelength regions. Identified coherent variations in TES spectroscopy were assessed against known atmospheric effects to validate that the variations are due to surface properties. With this new understanding of reflectance and emission spectroscopy, mineralogic interpretations were derived and applied to the science objectives of the three regions.

Boyce, Joseph↗

Characterization of exopolymers of aquatic bacteria by pyrolysis-mass spectrometry

Exopolymers from a diverse collection of marine and freshwater bacteria were characterized by pyrolysis-mass spectrometry (Py-MS). Py-MS provides spectra of pyrolysis fragments that are characteristic of the original material. Analysis of the spectra by multivariate statistical techniques (principal component and canonical variate analysis) separated these exopolymers into distinct groups. Py-MS clearly distinguished characteristic fragments, which may be derived from components responsible for functional differences between polymers. The importance of these distinctions and the relevance of pyrolysis information to exopolysaccharide function in aquatic bacteria is discussed.

NASA Program CELSS↗

A Sub-filter Scale Noise Equation far Hybrid LES Simulations

Hybrid LES/subscale modeling approaches have an important advantage over the current noise prediction methods in that they only involve modeling of the relatively universal subscale motion and not the configuration dependent larger scale turbulence . Previous hybrid approaches use approximate statistical techniques or extrapolation methods to obtain the requisite information about the sub-filter scale motion. An alternative approach would be to adopt the modeling techniques used in the current noise prediction methods and determine the unknown stresses from experimental data. The present paper derives an equation for predicting the sub scale sound from information that can be obtained with currently available experimental procedures. The resulting prediction method would then be intermediate between the current noise prediction codes and previously proposed hybrid techniques.

Goldstein, Marvin E.↗