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At least 253 records · Page 14

THEORETICAL STUDY OF ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR GASES AND THEIR REACTIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. SUMMARY OF WORK DONE IN THE PERIOD NOV. 1, 1960 TO APR. 30, 1961

In the previous report it was stated that the major mathematical problems of computations were nearly solved and an attempt is being made to start application of "Tables of Integrals" to the computation of the different states of atoms and molecules. In this respect I like to report that the computation of a number of states of atoms and molecules has been carried out. The results are so far confined only to the equilibrium distance of molecules. We are extending the calculation to other distances so as to compute potential energy curves of different states of molecules. We are also developing Thomas Fermi Statistical model of the atom to verify our results of more accurate calculation. The results so far have been very encouraging and I hope to report some of these results in the next paper.

Gas↗

Uncertainty Management in Remote Sensing of Climate Data. Summary of A Workshop

Great advances have been made in our understanding of the climate system over the past few decades, and remotely sensed data have played a key role in supporting many of these advances. Improvements in satellites and in computational and data-handling techniques have yielded high quality, readily accessible data. However, rapid increases in data volume have also led to large and complex datasets that pose significant challenges in data analysis (NRC, 2007). Uncertainty characterization is needed for every satellite mission and scientists continue to be challenged by the need to reduce the uncertainty in remotely sensed climate records and projections. The approaches currently used to quantify the uncertainty in remotely sensed data, including statistical methods used to calibrate and validate satellite instruments, lack an overall mathematically based framework.

Remote sensing↗

Foundations for statistical-physical precipitation retrieval from passive microwave satellite measurements. II - Emission-source and generalized weighting-function properties of a time-dependent cloud-radiation model

The foremost physical aspects of microphysical-radiative interactions that control the formation and modulation of frequency-dependent passive microwave TB over a continental cold-rain precipitation system are explained within the framework of the essential ingredients of a physically based precipitation-retrieval algorithm. The analysis is based on a modeling study in which a 3D cloud model has provided the objective basis for generating an extensive set of microphysical profiles that describe numerous precipitation features in the course of the evolution of a continental hail storm. A summary of the various components of the algorithm, as well as the surface rain rates, is given. The algorithm employs the cloud model to provide a consistent and objectively generated source of detailed microphysical information as the underpinnings to an inversion-based perturbative retrieval scheme.

Mugnai, Alberto↗

The Multiplatform Precipitation Feature (MPF) Database: Synthesizing Satellite and Ground-Based Precipitation and Lightning Datasets for Convective Studies

NASA’s Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission have contributed a wealth of data toward global lightning and precipitation studies, respectively. Combining lightning and precipitation datasets leverages their unique insights into deep convective processes that inform about characteristics of convection and its intensity. Recent efforts to synthesize the LIS and GPM datasets prepare the opportunity for unprecedented large-scale, value-added multiplatform analyses of convection. This data synthesis proof-of-concept study elaborates on the creation of a database of reflectivity-based multiplatform precipitation features (MPFs) that capture a combination of information extracted from spatiotemporally coincident lightning and precipitation data within individual storm features. The space-based GPM Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) provides a record of precipitation data, while the GPM Validation Network (VN) additionally incorporates ground-based polarimetric Doppler radar data to provide microphysical and kinematic context to DPR data. The LIS instrument onboard the International Space Station has contributed lightning observations since 2017. MPFs encapsulating information from these datasets are created from isolated regions of filtered, smoothed DPR reflectivity data to which ellipses are fit. Each MPF includes feature location, size, and eccentricity information as well as summary reflectivity characteristics. They also include summaries of precipitation microphysics and derived three-dimensional wind available from ground-based radar data. LIS data provides standard lightning characteristics such as flash count and density to each MPF as well as other informative metrics such as flash area and radiance. Each MPF file includes information about the original data from which the MPF and its characteristics were determined, allowing end-user reconstruction of the ellipse and deeper “level I” analysis of captured data. This database of VN-LIS MPFs enables broad statistical analysis of the relationships between the microphysical, kinematic, and electrical properties of convection. Preliminary results from a demonstration of the database will be described as well as ongoing efforts and avenues for future work.

Lightning↗

Summary and Annotated Bibliography of Measurement Error Corrections with Potential Application in Future Quesst Mission Community Noise Studies

This document is motivated by likely needs of the Quesst mission community response tests, which will culminate in data collection and estimation of dose-response regression relationships for consideration by domestic and international aviation regulators. Furthermore, basic research questions evaluating interactions between rates of community annoyance, dose levels, and indicators of the presence of rattle, vibration, and startle hinge on hypothesis testing in the context of regression models. For a variety of reasons, noise doses may be known only imprecisely and may not reflect the actual level experienced by responding subjects. These differences between true dose and estimated dose, be they systematic or random, constitute covariate measurement error. Available statistics literature speaks to the impacts of measurement error on regression models, both in terms of bias in estimated coefficients and predicted values, and in terms of the loss of statistical power for hypothesis testing. Given the particulars of a categorical annoyance response variable and a continuous noise dose predictor variable subject to measurement error during testing, the emphasis of this report is on findings and methods pertinent to generalized linear (and mixed) models likely to be employed during the Quesst mission community tests. We reach the following conclusions: 1. Of four reviewed methods, structural Bayesian measurement error models and simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) may be the most readily applicable to Quesst mission community noise study objectives. 2. If warranted, a linear measurement model can help model systematic sources of measurement error that the classical measurement error does not. 3. For its ready implementation and small additional input requirements, simulation extrapolation may be ideally suited for addressing secondary research questions involving interactions between annoyance, noise dose, and other factors through hypothesis testing. 4. For their flexibility and ability to propagate uncertainty, structural Bayesian hierarchical models have great appeal for mission purposes; some care may be needed in developing appropriate probability models describing actual noise exposure during testing. An annotated bibliography logs additional papers and resources that may be of value to analysts in other projects and disciplines.

Dose-Response Model↗

A summary of whistlers observed by Voyager 1 at Jupiter

We summarize the Voyager 1 observations of whistlers at Jupiter in order to provide a basis for further analyses of the density profile of the Io plasma torus as well as to support studies of atmospheric lightning at Jupiter. All the whistlers detected by Voyager 1 fell into three general regions in the torus at radial distances ranging beteen 5 and 6 R sub J. An analysis of the broadband wave amplitudes measured by the Voyayer 1 plasma wave instrument and estimates of the peak whistler amplitudes imply the grouping of whistlers was due to variations in the sensitivity of the receiver to whistlers and not to variations in the source or propagation paths of the whistlers. The whistler dispersions are presented in statistical form for each of the three groups of events and analyzed in view of the structure of the Io plasma torus as determined by plasma probe measurements. The results of these analyses give source locations for the whistlers at the foot of the magnetic field lines threading the torus in both hemispheres and over a range of longitudes.

Kurth, W. S.↗

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of 2 the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi-model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA-2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a type of weather pattern known to be important for moving water vapor from the warm, moist tropics to the cool, dry polar regions; when they reach midlatitudes in the winter time, they are commonly associated with heavy precipitation. Recent studies that assess the impacts of global climate change on ARs tend to agree that there will be more ARs in a warmer climate, and that ARs will tend to be more extreme. However, it has been increasingly recognized by the AR research community that these results may depend on the method used to identify ARs and the choice of climate model. This study reports results from a controlled experiment, involving an international research community, that aims to show how different AR identification methods and climate models might impact our scientific understanding of ARs in the future. This experiment shows that there will likely be more ARs in the future, and that ARs will generally have a larger spatial footprint. This experiment also shows that uncertainty in these results are large, with the uncertainty from AR identification methods outweighing that of climate models. Future efforts to better understand the physics of ARs may help us reduce this uncertainty.

T A OBrien↗

U.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents, 1963 through 1997

The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has recorded 8,436 rotorcraft accidents during the period mid - 1963 through the end of 1997. Review and analysis of the NTSB summary narrative for each accident has been completed. In addition, FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) counts of the growing registered rotorcraft fleet over this period has obtained. Taken together, a large and informative data base is now available, which indicates that the accident rate (on a per airframe basis) has changed very little since the mid 1970s. The data base, even in the summary form provided by this paper, offers suggestions for safer designs and improved flight operations. For analysis purposes, each accident has been placed in one of 21 top level categories as defined by the NTSB. Analysis of this grouping shows that 70 percent of rotorcraft accidents are associated with four categories. The accident count in these top four categories are: (1) 2,408 Loss of engine power (2) 1,322 In flight collision with object (3) 1,114 Loss of control (4) 1,083 Airframe/component/system failure or malfunction. Single engine rotorcraft dominate these accident statistics because of their sheer numbers over the study period. One-third of the loss of engine power accidents with these aircraft is fuel/air mixture related and fuel exhaustion is a common event. This appears to be the case whether a piston or turbine engine is installed. This paper provides similar study results in the other major mishap categories. It shows that both minor and major design and flight operations changes can -- and should -- be made to reduce rotorcraft accidents in the future. The paper outlines these changes and suggests how they may be made.

Harris, Franklin D.↗

A Computational Approach for Probabilistic Analysis of LS-DYNA Water Impact Simulations

NASA s development of new concepts for the Crew Exploration Vehicle Orion presents many similar challenges to those worked in the sixties during the Apollo program. However, with improved modeling capabilities, new challenges arise. For example, the use of the commercial code LS-DYNA, although widely used and accepted in the technical community, often involves high-dimensional, time consuming, and computationally intensive simulations. Because of the computational cost, these tools are often used to evaluate specific conditions and rarely used for statistical analysis. The challenge is to capture what is learned from a limited number of LS-DYNA simulations to develop models that allow users to conduct interpolation of solutions at a fraction of the computational time. For this problem, response surface models are used to predict the system time responses to a water landing as a function of capsule speed, direction, attitude, water speed, and water direction. Furthermore, these models can also be used to ascertain the adequacy of the design in terms of probability measures. This paper presents a description of the LS-DYNA model, a brief summary of the response surface techniques, the analysis of variance approach used in the sensitivity studies, equations used to estimate impact parameters, results showing conditions that might cause injuries, and concluding remarks.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

Summary of Magnetic Holes Project

Magnetic Holes in the solar wind are anomalous decreases in the interplanetary magnetic field as measured at a particular spacecraft. Such signatures have been observed in durations of several hours all the way down to the time resolution of the fastest magnetometer instruments, and with magnetic field decreases anywhere from a few percent to nearly full annihilation. It has been an objective of this study to implement a general strategy for detecting magnetic holes on all scales at which they can be found. Investigations into the properties of magnetic holes began with collections of events appearing distinct to the naked eye, perhaps biased by morphological characteristics or suggestive density and temperature fluctuations. More recent studies have taken the simple approach of cataloging any time period wherein the magnetic field is reduced by more than half. This investigation takes a statistical approach to the problem of identifying real magnetic hole events at all available scales.

Source record↗

Summary of the 6th AIAA Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop Nozzle Test Case: Heated Supersonic Axisymmetric Jets

This paper summarizes findings from the sixth AIAA Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop (PAW) nozzle test case. The focus of the workshop participants was turbulent supersonic round jets with variation in jet Mach number and jet heating. Three nozzles were utilized with on-design jet Mach numbers of 1.36, 1.63, and 2.00. A heated jet for each of these three nozzles at on-design conditions, a temperature matched on-design condition at Mach 1.63, and an off-design heated condition for the Mach 1.63 nozzle were the five cases examined. Workshop participants utilized Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) based techniques. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solutions were compared with non-intrusive measurements of velocities and temperatures, including both mean values and turbulence statistics. In general, the RANS approaches were unable to capture the trend of reduced mixing as the jet Mach number increased. Incorporation of compressibility corrections improved the agreement with experimental measurements in terms of trends with varying jet Mach number, but also increased the jet potential core lengths to be in worse agreement with data. RANS methods were able to reasonably capture trends of jet heating. The LES-based approaches as a whole were able to capture the effects of compressibility more accurately. Effects of jet heating were captured well by LES. None of the LES approaches introduced disturbances from the wall boundary layers of the nozzle into the jet mixing layer, which would affect the jet flow physics modeling in the initial part of the jet shear layer, but would be very computationally demanding.

supersonic jet↗

Comets - Nature, evolution and decay

A brief summary is given of the current concepts of the icy conglomerate cometary nucleus and of the origin of comets. Evidence that the cores of comets may contain less than average volatile material, whether in formation or by radiative heating, raises the question of why at least two very faint short-period comets suddenly experienced violent outbursts (about 4,000 times in brightness). A preliminary study of close double comet nuclei as affected by differential nongravitational forces shows that a collision of a cometary satellite with its primary is a likely outcome. Thus double nuclei may possibly explain these rare but extreme outbursts. Statistics suggest, however, that most comet splitting and comet outbursts represent intrinsic activities in extremely nonhomogeneous nuclei.

Whipple, F. L.↗

Satellite freeze forecast system: Executive summary

A satellite-based temperature monitoring and prediction system consisting of a computer controlled acquisition, processing, and display system and the ten automated weather stations called by that computer was developed and transferred to the national weather service. This satellite freeze forecasting system (SFFS) acquires satellite data from either one of two sources, surface data from 10 sites, displays the observed data in the form of color-coded thermal maps and in tables of automated weather station temperatures, computes predicted thermal maps when requested and displays such maps either automatically or manually, archives the data acquired, and makes comparisons with historical data. Except for the last function, SFFS handles these tasks in a highly automated fashion if the user so directs. The predicted thermal maps are the result of two models, one a physical energy budget of the soil and atmosphere interface and the other a statistical relationship between the sites at which the physical model predicts temperatures and each of the pixels of the satellite thermal map.

Martsolf, J. D.↗

Modeling Mg II During Solar Flares. II. Nonequilibrium Effects

To extract the information that the Mg II NUV spectra (observed by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph) carry about the chromosphere during solar flares, and to validate models of energy transport via model–data comparison, forward modeling is required. The assumption of statistical equilibrium (SE) is typically used to obtain the atomic level populations from snapshots of flare atmospheres, due to computational necessity. However, it is possible that relying on SE could lead to spurious results. We compare solving the atomic level populations via SE versus a non-equilibrium (NEQ) time-dependent approach. This was achieved using flare simulations from RADYN alongside the minority species version MS_RADYN from which the time-dependent Mg II atomic level populations and radiation transfer were computed in complete frequency redistribution. The impacts on the emergent profiles, light curves, line ratios, and formation heights are discussed. In summary we note that NEQ effects during flares are typically important only in the initial stages and for a short period following the cessation of the energy injection. An analysis of the timescales of ionization equilibrium reveals that for most of the duration of the flare, when the temperatures and densities are sufficiently enhanced, the relaxation timescales are short (τrelax < 0.1 s), so that the equilibrium solution is an adequate approximation. These effects vary with the size of the flare, however. In weaker flares, effects can be more pronounced. We recommend that NEQ effects be considered when possible but that SE is sufficient at most stages of the flare.

Kerr, Graham S.↗

Statistical Analyses of Satellite Cloud Object Data from CERES: Comparison with Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of Tropical Convective Clouds - Part III

The present study evaluates the ability of a cloud-resolving model (CRM) to simulate the physical properties of tropical deep convective cloud objects identified from a Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) data product. The emphasis of this study is the comparisons among the small-, medium- and large-size categories of cloud objects observed during March 1998 and between the large-size categories of cloud objects observed during March 1998 (strong El Ni o) and March 2000 (weak La Ni a). Results from the CRM simulations are analyzed in a way that is consistent with the CERES retrieval algorithm and they are averaged to match the scale of the CERES satellite footprints. Cloud physical properties are analyzed in terms of their summary histograms for each category. It is found that there is a general agreement in the overall shapes of all cloud physical properties between the simulated and observed distributions. Each cloud physical property produced by the CRM also exhibits different degrees of disagreement with observations over different ranges of the property. The simulated cloud tops are generally too high and cloud top temperatures are too low except for the large-size category of March 1998. The probability densities of the simulated top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) albedos for all four categories are underestimated for high albedos, while those of cloud optical depth are overestimated at its lowest bin. These disagreements are mainly related to uncertainties in the cloud microphysics parameterization and inputs such as cloud ice effective size to the radiation calculation. Summary histograms of cloud optical depth and TOA albedo from the CRM simulations of the large-size category of cloud objects do not differ significantly between the March 1998 and 2000 periods, consistent with the CERES observations. However, the CRM is unable to reproduce the significant differences in the observed cloud top height while it overestimates the differences in the observed outgoing longwave radiation and cloud top temperature between the two periods. Comparisons between the CRM results and the observations for most parameters in March 1998 consistently show that both the simulations and observations have larger differences between the large- and small-size categories than between the large- and medium-size, or between the medium- and small-size categories. However, the simulated cloud properties do not change as much with size as observed. These disagreements are likely related to the spatial averaging of the forcing data and the mismatch in time and in space between the numerical weather prediction model from which the forcing data are produced and the CERES observed cloud systems.

Luo, Yali↗

Precipitation measurements from space - Workshop summary 28 April-1 May 1981, Greenbelt, MD

The goals and methods for global precipitation measurements from space are examined. Records currently exist only for visible and IR scans of cloud properties, and are applied from GEO for detecting diurnal variations in precipitation. Microwave radiometry is noted to be a suitable method for supplementing the visible and IR data for measuring stratiform oceanic precipitation, and when used at up to 3 microns can detect areas, if not amounts, of precipitation from GEO. Applications of radar altimeters are proposed in terms of modifications to the Seasat-type 2.2 cm radar, the use of surface target attentuation radar, of frequency agile rain radar, or of adaptive pointing radar. Soil moisture sensing is available with passive microwave radiometry in the 20-50 cm bands, or active sensing in the 5-8 cm bands. The utilization of GARP ground truth data is explored, along with statistical methods for treating the data samples.

Atlas, D.↗

Geodetic positioning using a global positioning system of satellites

Geodetic positioning using range, integrated Doppler, and interferometric observations from a constellation of twenty-four Global Positioning System satellites is analyzed. A summary of the proposals for geodetic positioning and baseline determination is given which includes a description of measurement techniques and comments on rank deficiency and error sources. An analysis of variance comparison of range, Doppler, and interferometric time delay to determine their relative geometric strength for baseline determination is included. An analytic examination to the effect of a priori constraints on positioning using simultaneous observations from two stations is presented. Dynamic point positioning and baseline determination using range and Doppler is examined in detail. Models for the error sources influencing dynamic positioning are developed. Included is a discussion of atomic clock stability, and range and Doppler observation error statistics based on random correlated atomic clock error are derived.

Fell, P. J.↗

Expanded Performance Characterization of the NASA HERMeS Hall Thruster

This work presents a summary of a detailed performance assessment of the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) Technology Demonstration Unit 3 (TDU-3) thruster at the throttle conditions most relevant for the Gateway Power and Propulsion Element (PPE). First, an assessment was performed of TDU-3 performance and stability at the previously-tested throttle points of 300 V/6.25 kW, 400 V/8.33 kW, 500 V/10.42 kW, and 600 V/12.5 kW that confirmed TDU-3 was operating nominally and consistent with historical baselines. TDU-3 performance and stability were then assessed throughout the PPE throttle range of 2.6-12 kW and shown to mirror the characteristics observed at the previously tested conditions. Finally, a statistical estimate for the thrust specification at the expanded set of throttle conditions was computed and found to yield similar tolerance ranges to those calculated for the heritage conditions. Taken together, these results provide strong evidence that the demonstrated performance characteristics of the HERMeS design are preserved at the expanded set of throttle conditions relevant to application on PPE.

HERMeS↗