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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Groundwater Inflows to the Columbia River Along the Hanford Reach and Associated Nitrate Concentrations

Healthy river ecosystems require the interaction of many physical and biological processes to maintain their status. One physical process supporting biogeochemical cycling is hydrologic exchange (i.e., hydrologic exchange flows, HEFs) between relatively fast-flowing channel waters and slower-flowing surface and subsurface waters (lateral and vertical). Land uses adjacent to rivers have the potential to alter the water quality of off-channel surface and subsurface waters, and HEFs therefore have the potential to deliver solutes associated with river-adjacent land uses to rivers. HEFs can be nonpoint, diffuse sources of pollution, making the ultimate pollution source difficult to identify, especially in large rivers. Here, we seek to identify HEFs in the Columbia River near Richland, WA by looking for anomalies in temperature and electrical conductivity (EC) along the bed of the river in February, June, July, August, and November 2018. These are ultimately the “ends” of HEFs as they are locations of subsurface inflow to the river. We found these anomalies to be a combination of warmer or colder and higher (but not lower) EC than river water. We identified a majority of warm anomalies in February and July 2018, and majority cold anomalies in June, August, and November 2018. High-EC anomalies were found mostly in February, August, and November. Combined, we observe a shift from warm, high EC anomalies dominating in February to equivalent EC, warm anomalies in June, to equivalent EC, cool anomalies dominating July. In August, we also measured dissolved nitrate ($NO^-_3$) in-situ to determine whether anomalies were associated with increased $NO^-_3$ loading to the river, especially along the eastern shoreline, which is dominated by agricultural land use. Inflows along the eastern shoreline have greater concentrations of nitrate than river water (up to 10 mg $N–NO^-_3$/L). This research demonstrates that HEFs are temporally and spatially dynamic transferring heat and solutes to rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Sentinel-1 and GRACE satellite data to monitor the hydrological variations within the Tulare Basin, California

Abstract Subsidence induced by groundwater depletion is a grave problem in many regions around the world, leading to a permanent loss of groundwater storage within an aquifer and even producing structural damage at the Earth’s surface. California’s Tulare Basin is no exception, experiencing about a meter of subsidence between 2015 and 2020. However, understanding the relationship between changes in groundwater volumes and ground deformation has proven difficult. We employ surface displacement measurements from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and gravimetric estimates of terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite pair to characterize the hydrological dynamics within the Tulare basin. The removal of the long-term aquifer compaction from the InSAR time series reveals coherent short-term variations that correlate with hydrological features. For example, in the winter of 2018–2019 uplift is observed at the confluence of several rivers and streams that drain into the southeastern edge of the basin. These observations, combined with estimates of mass changes obtained from the orbiting GRACE satellites, form the basis for imaging the monthly spatial variations in water volumes. This approach facilitates the quick and effective synthesis of InSAR and gravimetric datasets and will aid efforts to improve our understanding and management of groundwater resources around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

WHONDRS River Corridor Surface Water Metabolites and Geochemistry from Global Sites

This dataset supports a broader study examining the character of organic matter that may be delivered to subsurface sediments via hydrologic exchange. To implement the global survey, free stream sampling kits were provided to interested volunteers throughout the world. Samples were collected with minimal constraints in terms of location, but following strict protocols, and shipped for metabolomic analysis via Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS). In addition, basic geochemistry analyses (e.g., dissolved organic matter concentration) were conducted, standardized photos of each field system were taken, and extensive metadata were captured. Sampling began in 2018 and is ongoing as of 2025. This dataset is comprised of one folders of field photos, one folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data, and one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) readme; (5) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; (6) field protocol; and (7) a subfolder with sample data. The sample data subfolder contains (1) surface water dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) methods codes; (3) surface water FTICR methods; and (4) a subfolder of 12 Tesla (12T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains three subfolders, one containing the.xml files, one containing the CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, or .png. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About.

Biogeochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shifting groundwater fluxes in bedrock fractures: Evidence from stream water radon and water isotopes

Geologic features (e.g., fractures and alluvial fans) can play an important role in the locations and volumes of groundwater discharge and degree of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions. However, the role of these features in controlling GW-SW dynamics and streamflow generation processes are not well constrained. GW-SW interactions and streamflow generation processes are further complicated by variability in precipitation inputs from summer and fall monsoon rains, as well as declines in snowpack and changing melt dynamics driven by warming temperatures. Using high spatial and temporal resolution radon and water stable isotope sampling and a 1D groundwater flux model, we evaluated how groundwater contributions and GW-SW interactions varied along a stream reach impacted by fractures (fractured-zone) and below the fractured hillslope (non-fractured zone) in Coal Creek, a Colorado River headwater stream affected by summer monsoons. During early summer, groundwater contributions from the fractured zone dominated, but declined throughout the summer. Groundwater contributions from the non-fractured zone were constant throughout the summer and became proportionally more important later in the summer. We hypothesize that groundwater in the non-fractured zone is dominantly sourced from a high-storage alluvial fan at the base of a tributary that is connected to Coal Creek throughout the summer and provides consistent groundwater influx. Water isotope data revealed that Coal Creek responds quickly to incoming precipitation early in the summer, and summer precipitation becomes more important for streamflow generation later in the summer. We quantified the change in catchment dynamic storage and found it negatively related to stream water isotope values, and positively related to modeled groundwater discharge and the ratio of fractured zone to non-fractured zone groundwater. Importantly, we interpret these relationships as declining hydrologic connectivity throughout the summer leading to late summer streamflow supported predominantly by shallow flow paths, with variable response to drying from geologic features based on their storage. As groundwater becomes more important for sustaining summer flows, quantifying local geologic controls on groundwater inputs and their response to variable moisture conditions may become critical for accurate predictions of streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large seasonal fluctuations of groundwater radioiodine speciation and concentrations in a riparian wetland in South Carolina

Recent studies evaluating multiple years of groundwater radioiodine ( 129 I) concentration in a riparian wetland located in South Carolina, USA identified strong seasonal concentration fluctuations, such that summer concentrations were much greater than winter concentrations. These fluctuations were observed only in the wetlands but not in the upland portion of the plume and only with 129 I, and not with other contaminants of anthropogenic origin: nitrate/nitrite, strontium-90, technecium-99, tritium, or uranium. This unexplained observation was hypothesized to be the result of strongly coupled processes involving hydrology, water temperature, microbiology, and chemistry. To test this hypothesis, an extensive historical groundwater database was evaluated, and additional measurements of total iodine and iodine speciation were made from recently collected samples. During the summer, the water table decreased by as much as 0.7 m, surface water temperature increased by as much as 15 °C, and total iodine concentrations were consistently greater (up to 680%) than the following winter months. Most of the additional iodine observed in the summer could be attributed to proportional gains in organo-iodine, and not iodide or iodate. Furthermore, 129 I concentrations were observed to be two-orders-of-magnitude greater at the bottom of the upland aquifer than at the top. A coupled hydrological and biogeochemical conceptual model is proposed to tie these observations together. First, as the surface water temperature increased during the summer, microbial activity was enhanced, which in turn stimulated the formation of mobile organo-I. Hydrological processes were also likely involved in the observed iodine seasonal changes: (1) as the water table decreased in summer, the remaining upland water entering the wetland was comprised of a greater proportion of water containing elevated iodine concentrations from the low depths, and (2) water flow paths in summer changed such that the wells intercepted more of the contaminant plume and less of the diluting rainwater (due to evapotranspiration) and streamwater (as the lower levels promote a predominantly recharging system). Furthermore, these results underscore the importance of coupled processes influencing contaminant concentrations, and the need to assess seasonal contaminant variations to optimize long-term monitoring programs of wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chlorophyll- a dynamics in the lower Amazon River: insights from in situ and hyperspectral remote sensing using OCI-PACE

Chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla) is a key indicator of phytoplankton biomass and aquatic trophic status. However, satellite-derived Chla in sediment-rich waters, such as those found in the Lower Amazon River, remains challenging. The present study characterizes in situ Chla levels and their relationships with geographic, physical, and biogeochemical parameters in the Lower Amazon. Data collected between 2014 and 2017 across four hydrological seasons included measurements of Chla, remote sensing reflectance, and water quality parameters such as total suspended sediment, conductivity, water surface temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, dissolved organic carbon and coloured dissolved organic matter. An empirical model was developed to estimate Chla using simulated hyperspectral bands from NASA’s PACE mission, achieving high performance (R 2 = 0.76; RMSE = 0.11 μg·L −1 ). Red bands proved particularly effective for Chla retrieval, while the addition of ultraviolet bands further enhanced model accuracy. The application of the developed model to satellite imagery yielded results consistent with in situ observations for the same hydrologic season. Seasonal variation and geographic location were major factors influencing Chla dynamics. This study provides a novel contribution to Chla estimation in optically complex, highly turbid waters and highlights the potential of the PACE mission to enhance global aquatic ecosystem monitoring. In conclusion, by offering freely available hyperspectral data with high radiometric resolution, PACE represents a significant advancement in the realm of remote sensing of aquatic environments.

Amazon River↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improved representation of laminar and turbulent sheet flow in subglacial drainage models

Subglacial hydrology models struggle to reproduce seasonal drainage patterns that are consistent with observed subglacial water pressures and surface velocities. We modify the standard sheet-flow parameterization within a coupled sheet–channel subglacial drainage model to smoothly transition between laminar and turbulent flow based on the locally computed Reynolds number in a physically consistent way (the ‘transition’ model). We compare the transition model to standard laminar and turbulent models to assess the role of the sheet-flow parameterization in reconciling observed and modelled water pressures under idealized and realistic forcing. Relative to the turbulent model, the laminar and transition models improve seasonal simulations by increasing winter water pressure and producing a more prominent late-summer water pressure minimum. In contrast to the laminar model, the transition model remains consistent with its own internal assumptions across all flow regimes. Based on the internal consistency of the transition model and its improved performance relative to the standard turbulent model, we recommend its use for transient simulations of subglacial drainage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Little Change in Apparent Hydrological Sensitivity at Large CO 2 Forcing

Apparent hydrological sensitivity (η a ), the change in the global mean precipitation per degree K of global surface warming, is a key aspect of the climate system's response to increasing CO 2 forcing. To determine whether ηa depends on the forcing amplitude we analyze idealized experiments over a broad range of abrupt CO 2 forcing, from 2× to 8× preindustrial values, with two distinct climate models. We find little change in η a between 2× and 4×CO 2 , and almost no change beyond 5×CO 2 . We validate this finding under transient CO 2 forcing at 1%-per-year, up to 8×CO 2 . We further corroborate this result by analyzing the 1%-per-year output of more than 15 CMIP5/6 models. Lastly, we examine the 1,000-year long LongrunMIP model output, and again find little change in η a . This wealth of results demonstrates that η a is a very weak function of CO 2 forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of a land-atmosphere coupling metric computed from a ground-based infrared interferometer

Land-atmosphere feedbacks are a critical component of the hydrologic cycle. Vertical profiles of boundary layer temperature and moisture, together with information about the land surface, are used to compute land-atmosphere coupling metrics. Ground based remote sensing platforms, such as the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), can provide high temporal resolution vertical profiles of temperature and moisture. When co-located with soil moisture, surface flux, and surface meteorological observations, such as at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, it is possible to observe both the terrestrial and atmospheric legs of land-atmosphere feedbacks. In this study, we compare a commonly used coupling metric computed from radiosonde-based data to that obtained from the AERI to characterize the accuracy and uncertainty in the metric derived from the two distinct platforms. This approach demonstrates the AERI’s utility where radiosonde observations are absent in time and/or space. Radiosonde and AERI based observations of the Convective Triggering Potential and Low-Level Humidity Index (CTP-HI low ) were computed during the 1200 UTC observation time and displayed good agreement during both 2017 and 2019 warm seasons. Furthermore, radiosonde and AERI derived metrics diagnosed the same atmospheric preconditioning based upon the CTP-HI low framework a majority of the time. When retrieval uncertainty was considered, even greater agreement was found between radiosonde and AERI derived classification. The AERI’s ability to represent this coupling metric well enabled novel exploration of temporal variability within the overnight period in CTP and HI low . Observations of CTP-HI low computed within a few hours of 1200 UTC were essentially equivalent, however with greater differences in time arose greater differences in CTP and HI low .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Monitoring urban hydrological environment monitoring using fiber optical sensing

The goal of this research is to develop an innovative approach to monitoring urban dynamic hydrological environment using optical-fiber-based distributed acoustic sensing (DAS). We propose to employ surface-wave dispersion inversion and coda-wave interferometry inversion based on natural and anthropogenic seismic ambient noises acquired using a DAS array to accurately invert for time-lapse changes of groundwater in urban areas. Through this work, we aim to provide the first cost-effective, city-scale, high-resolution approach to monitoring urban groundwater changes that is otherwise difficult or expensive to achieve using conventional techniques. This work will create LANL’s DAS-based near-surface and groundwater monitoring capability, which can also be leveraged in solving relevant applied energy and national security problems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elucidating Processes Controlling Arctic Atmospheric Aerosol Sources, Aging, and Mixing States (Final Report)

Atmospheric aerosols play critical roles in the Earth’s energy budget, directly by scattering or absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation and indirectly by serving as seeds (nuclei) for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation and by depositing on snow and ice surface, thereby changing the surface albedo. These effects are dependent on aerosol particle size and chemical composition and impact the hydrological cycle as well. This project provided single-particle size and chemical composition measurements across the entire annual cycle in the high Arctic and in the Alaskan Arctic during fall – winter, addressing the most significant gaps in Arctic aerosol observational data. These needs were based on recent rapid sea ice loss across the entire Arctic, as well as the major annual delays in sea ice freeze-up during fall in the Chukchi Sea and increased wintertime sea ice fracturing in the Beaufort Sea, both off the North Slope of Alaska. Two DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) field campaigns were conducted for atmospheric aerosol sampling. The Aerosols during the Polar Utqiagvik Night (APUN – ‘snow on ground’ in Iñupiaq) ARM field campaign at Utqagivik, Alaska was conducted from Oct. 28 – Dec. 22, 2018. Aerosol sizing instrumentation and a single-particle mass spectrometer were successfully deployed for size-resolved number concentration measurements and measurements of individual particle size and chemical composition, respectively. These results show the influence of locally-produced sea spray aerosol, with high cloud-forming potential, due to delayed sea ice freeze-up in the fall. During the 2019‐2020 international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, daily atmospheric aerosol particles were collected aboard the German icebreaker Polarstern in the Central Arctic from Nov. 2019 – Oct. 2020. Sea salt aerosol and marine organics were observed year-round during MOSAiC with varying morphologies and sources. These findings are important because most Arctic models do not include a sea spray aerosol source, despite this source increasing with declining sea ice extent. In addition to collecting new samples and data, this project also conducted further analysis of previously collected single-particle chemical composition measurements within the North Slope of Alaska oil fields and at Utqiaġvik, AK, during Aug. – Sep. 2015 and 2016 field campaigns. This work resulted in the discovery of chemical reactions of oil field combustion emissions occurring within fog droplets across the North Slope of Alaska and forming secondary aerosol, showing the impact of Arctic oil field emissions beyond black carbon aerosol and greenhouse gases. In addition, the distribution of chemical species across the aerosol population within the oil fields was quantified, using these data and a previously development framework. We also presented the first ambient evidence of the collision of two atmospheric particles resulting in formation of an organic-coated ammonium sulfate particle of marine origin, which has implications for cloud formation with declining sea ice extent. Overall, this project has elucidated connections between seawater biogeochemistry, resource extraction activities, atmospheric composition, clouds, and the energy budget of the Arctic region. The results of this project are expected to improve weather and sea ice forecasting for security and development in the Arctic and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

CMIP6-based Multi-model Streamflow Projections over the Conterminous US

This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections based on the hydroclimate projections dataset supporting the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). The six-member General Climate Model (GCM) ensemble from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) downscaled using statistical (i.e., DBCCA) and dynamical (i.e., RegCM) and bias-corrected using two meteorological reference observations (Daymet & Livneh) are driven through two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC & PRMS) to simulate projected future hydrologic responses. This leads to the production of an ensemble of hydroclimate projections, including total runoff (surface runoff and baseflow) for 1980–2019 baseline and 2020–2059 near-term future periods under multiple emission scenarios at 1/24° (~4 km) spatial resolution across the CONUS. The total runoff projections are routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to produce an ensemble of streamflow projections for both periods across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches in the CONUS.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Importance of Freeze/Thaw Cycles on Lateral Transport in Ice-Wedge Polygons: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication "The importance of freeze/thaw cycles on lateral transport in ice-wedge polygons". The dataset includes xml input/configuration files. These files are compatible with the ATS version 1.0 and higher. The mesh folder contains mesh files used for high-centered polygon (hcp) and low-centered polygon (lcp). The mesh files represent the transect of the polygonal tundra (Fig 1). Here we used two types of mesh with impermeable layer and without. The mesh with an impermeable layer corresponds to the synthetic permafrost (no freezeup case). The freeze up case uses mesh without impermeable layer to simulated frozen ground start at the same depth where the impermeable layer is for the no freezeup case. The meteorological data used drive the model saved in the "inputs" folder. The processed tracer flow rates are saved in the "tracer-flow-ratesCfolder. To plot figures 1 and 2, we used VisIt software. To plot all the flow rates, we used ipython notebook script. All required inputs are saved in "freezeup" and "no freezeup" folders. Each folder includes the corresponding "lcp" and "hcp" folders. The "freezeup" folder has also flat-centered polygon (fcp) case, low porosity "lpor", and low permeability "lper" cases. Included are *.xml, *.exo, *.h5, *pdf, *.ipynb, *.sh, *.py, and *.out files. NGEE Arctic Project Summary: The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980-2100

This dataset contains gridded estimates of total runoff (mm/day); subsurface runoff (mm/day); snow water equivalent (SWE, mm/day); vertical upward water flux of combined surface evaporation, evapotranspiration, and snow sublimation (mm/day); and soil temperature (C) across the pan-Arctic basin from simulations of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). These data were generated to allow researchers to advance understanding of the changes unfolding in the Arctic's terrestrial water cycle under the influences of climate warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw. The dataset will enable researchers to address important questions spanning multiple disciplines. For example, how will rising river flows exported to the coast impact critical zone ecosystems, near-shore ice dynamics, and ocean biogeochemical processes. Spatial resolution is 25x25 km with N=39926 grid cells spanning the domain. Three forcing datasets were used to drive simulations at an implicit daily time step over the period 1980-2100. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA5 reanalysis (W5E5) were used for meteorological forcings over the period 1980-2019. Simulations for the period 1980-2100 used meteorological data from two global climate models; IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. The PWBM hydrological outputs are organized by grid and month in gzipped ASCII text files within each archived tar file. Soil temperature is organized by grid cell and day of year from DOY 205 to DOY 260. No special software is required to work with these data. The package contains spatial domain and river basin information files. These data are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil thermal dynamics. A manuscript describing the model simulations and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in The Cryosphere (Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Timeseries Unlabeled and Labeled Photos, Modeled Stream Elevation, and (Meta)Data of Variably Inundated Streams Across The Yakima River Basin, Washington, United States (v2)

This dataset is associated with the “River Monitoring Photos” (RMP) study and subsequent manuscript (Bao et al. 2025. Monitoring river flow status using low-cost wildlife camera and image segmentation artificial intelligence doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106715). Game camera timeseries photos were collected to evaluate stream variable inundation via changes in width. A subset of photos was labeled for training the YOLOv8 and Mask2Former models and used to segment water surface fractions from all the game camera photos.This data package was originally published in March 2024. It was updated in October 2025 (v2) to add additional photos and files associated with the manuscript (i.e., processed data, labeled photos, and trained models). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About.In addition to a readme, this data package also includes two file-level metadata (FLMD) files that describes each file and two data dictionaries (DD) that describe all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) field metadata; and (5) folders containing game camera photos and manuscript-associated files. Each Yakima River Basin site has a folder that contains subfolders for each month photos were collected. There is also a folder for files associated with the manuscript which has subfolders for labeled data, trained models, Yakima River Basin site water surface fractions, and USGS site water surface fractions. All files are .csv, .json, .txt, .yaml, .pth, .pt, or .pdf. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling of Convective Storms Driven by Real-time Analytics

Convective storms vertically transport water vapor and condensate from Earth’s surface to the upper troposphere. Life on Earth is fundamentally linked to this transport which determines the hydrological cycle, and the intensity of severe weather responsible for the destruction of life and property. Despite advances in high-resolution modeling and better observational capabilities, the scientific community continues to be confronted with knowledge gaps about convective storms that limit our predictive capabilities. The ongoing developments in the high-resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), large eddy simulations, and AI-based analytics to evaluate uncertainties are expected to provide a comprehensive framework for new scientific discovery. The model-experiment (MODEX) approach suggests that the aforementioned advancements in model development and AI-based inference techniques should be complemented by similar advancements in the experimental (observational) side so that the former does not outstrip the ability of the latter to provide meaningful constraints. What are the recent advancements in observations that will provide the necessary leap forward in improving our predictive capabilities? To address this question, we propose a new experimental paradigm called Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS) that capitalizes on advancements in communications (5G), computational resources (edge/fog computing), sensor capabilities, and machine learning (ML) and AI techniques (Kollias et al., 2020). The MAAS framework allows for the collection of higher spatiotemporal resolution and quality observations of convective storms than is traditionally possible. The MAAS framework is scalable and applicable to atmospheric observatories such as those operated by the Department of Energy (DoE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗