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At least 253 records · Page 14

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Plume spectrometry for liquid rocket engine health monitoring

An investigation of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) testing failures identified optical events which appeared to be precursors of those failures. A program was therefore undertaken to detect plume trace phenomena characteristic of the engine and to design a monitoring system, responsive to excessive activity in the plume, capable of delivering a warning of an anomalous condition. By sensing the amount of extraneous material entrained in the plume and considering engine history, it may be possible to identify wearing of failing components in time for a safe shutdown and thus prevent a catastrophic event. To investigate the possibilities of safe shutdown and thus prevent a monitor to initiate the shutdown procedure, a large amount of plume data were taken from SSME firings using laboratory instrumentation. Those data were used to design a more specialized instrument dedicated to rocket plume diagnostics. The spectral wavelength range of the baseline data was about 220 nanometers (nm) to 15 micrometer with special attention given to visible and near UV. The data indicates that a satisfactory design will include a polychromator covering the range of 250 nM to 1000 nM, along with a continuous coverage spectrometer, each having a resolution of at least 5A degrees. The concurrent requirements for high resolution and broad coverage are normally at odds with one another in commercial instruments, therefore necessitating the development of special instrumentation. The design of a polychromator is reviewed herein, with a detailed discussion of the continuous coverage spectrometer delayed to a later forum. The program also requires the development of applications software providing detection, variable background discrimination, noise reduction, filtering, and decision making based on varying historical data.

Powers, William T.↗

Microsimulation of Energy and Flow Effects from Optimal Automated Driving in Mixed Traffic

In this paper we study the energy and traffic impact of a proposed Anticipative Cruise Controller in a PTV VISSIM microsimulation environment. We dissect our controller into two parts: 1. the unconnected mode, active when following a human-driven vehicle, and 2. the connected mode, active when following another automated vehicle equipped with connectivity. Probabilistic constraints balance safety considerations with inter-vehicle compactness, and vehicle constraints for acceleration capabilities are expressed through the use of powertrain maps. Emergent highway traffic scenarios are then modeled using time headway distributions from empirical traffic data. To study the impact of automation over a range of demands of free-flow to stop-and-go, we vary vehicle flux from low to high and vary automated vehicle penetration from low to high. When examining all-human driving scenarios, network capacity failed to meet demand in high-volume scenarios, such as rush-hour traffic. We further find that with connected automated vehicles introduced, network capacity was improved to support the high-volume scenarios. Finally, we examine energy efficiencies of the fleet for conventional, electric, and hybrid vehicles. We find that automated vehicles perform at a 10%-20% higher energy efficiency over human drivers when considering conventional powertrains, and find that automated vehicles perform at a 3%-9% higher energy efficiency over human drivers when considering electric and hybrid powertrains. Due to secondary effects of smoothing traffic flow and reducing unnecessary braking, energy benefits also apply to human-driven vehicles that interact with automated ones. Such simulated humans were found to drive up to 10% more energy-efficiently than they did in the baseline all-human scenario.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Stochastic Scheduler for Integrated Arrival, Departure and Surface Operations in Los Angeles

In terminal airspace, integrating arrivals, departures, and surface operations with competing resources provides the potential of improving operational efficiency by removing barriers between different operations. This work develops a centralized stochastic scheduler for operations in a terminal area including airborne and surface operations using Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulations. The scheduler handles completing resources between different flows, such as runway allocations, runway crossing, departure fixes, and other interaction way points between arrivals and departures. Meanwhile, the scheduler also takes time-varied uncertainties into account when optimizing schedules. The scheduler is run sequentially to identify the best and robust schedule for the next planning window. Resulting schedules decide the routes, speed or delays, and runway assignments with separation constraints at mergingdiverging waypoints in the air and crossing and separations on runways. The Los Angels terminal area was used as an example. The implementation of this stochastic scheduler for integrated arrival, departure and surface operations is completed. And several preliminary runs are finished for over 1,200 flights in LAX in a typical day. Sensitivity studies on various planning window sizes are presented, which shows that trade-off exits between planning window size and achievable minimum delay. Preliminary results on runway usage are also presented in this abstract. Because arrivals on the outer runways have to be followed by crossings on the inner runways, algorithmic runway allocation prefers inner runways for arrivals and outer runways for departures. More results will be presented in the final paper. And current terminal arrival and departure procedures based on first-come-first-serve procedure will also be set up and used as a baseline for comparison.

integrated scheduler↗

Vitrification of Hanford Tank 241-AP-107 with Recycled Condensate

During the vitrification of nuclear waste at the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) – the primary mission of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of River Protection – the offgas condensate generated from the waste-to-glass conversion is currently planned to be concentrated by evaporation in the Effluent Management Facility (EMF). This concentrated condensate can then be recycled back to the incoming waste and vitrified. To test the recycle process, a test apparatus was designed to mimic the EMF evaporator and used to concentrate a volume of condensate that had been previously produced during the vitrification of Hanford tank 241-AP-107 (referred to herein as AP-107) waste in a continuous laboratory-scale melter (CLSM). The test apparatus successfully concentrated the AP-107 condensate by a factor of 10 while retaining over 90 % of the technetium-99 ( 99 Tc), Cs, and I inventory. A second portion of AP-107 waste was retrieved by Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC, given to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and combined with the AP-107 condensate concentrate after undergoing solids filtration and cesium removal by ion exchange. This combination served to approximate the recycling action to be performed at the WTP. After the addition of glass-forming chemicals (GFCs), the combined AP-107 waste and AP-107 condensate concentrate were processed in the CLSM to produce a glass, called AP-107-1R, that was designed to satisfy the WTP baseline requirements (Kim et al. 2012). During the 8.87 hours of processing, 7.27 kg of AP-107-1R glass were produced for an average glass production rate of 1739 kg m 2 d -1 . Compared to the previous run in the CLSM without recycled condensate, the run with the recycle had a greater average glass production rate, but the rate was within the potential range of variability when processing melter feeds with similar composition in the CLSM. The glass produced from the AP-107 recycle run in the CLSM was within 10 % of the target AP-107-1R glass composition with respect to the primary glass components. Analysis of the minor component impurities revealed that their content in the glass product had approached their nominal target after 2 turnovers of the glass inventory in the CLSM while the activity of the minor radionuclides was retained in the glass product. The 99 Tc and total cesium content in the combined AP-107 waste and recycled condensate were maintained at concentrations expected to be experienced at the WTP. During processing in the CLSM, at discrete sampling time periods, the target 99 Tc/Cs mass ratio in the glass formulation varied from 0.9 to 62.9. Across this range, the Cs retention in the glass ranged from 53 to 60 %, while the retention from the entire runtime totaled 68 %, values which align with Cs retention in other scaled melter systems while processing LAW melter feeds at 99 Tc/Cs mass ratios ranging from 1 to 100. The 99 Tc retention in the glass ranged from 22 to 32 %, primarily due to the cold-cap coverage on the glass melt surface, the area covered by reacting melter feed, varying from ~80 % to ~95 % during processing, demonstrating greater volatility of 99 Tc from the glass while more surface was exposed, as expected based on previous 99 Tc volatility studies.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

UV laser long-path absorption spectroscopy

Long path Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) using a picosecond UV laser as a light source was developed in our institute. Tropospheric OH radicals are measured by their rotational absorption lines around 308 nm. The spectra are obtained using a high resolution spectrograph. The detection system has been improved over the formerly used optomechanical scanning device by application of a photodiode array which increased the observed spectral range by a factor of 6 and which utilizes the light much more effectively leading to a considerable reduction of the measurement time. This technique provides direct measurements of OH because the signal is given by the product of the absorption coefficient and the OH concentration along the light path according to Lambert-Beers law. No calibration is needed. Since the integrated absorption coefficient is well known the accuracy of the measurement essentially depends on the extent to which the OH absorption pattern can be detected in the spectra. No interference by self generated OH radicals in the detection lightpath has been observed. The large bandwidth (greater than 0.15 nm) and the high spectral resolution (1.5 pm) allows absolute determination of interferences by other trace gas absorptions. The measurement error is directly accessible from the absorption-signal to baseline-noise ratio in the spectra. The applicability of the method strongly depends on visibility. Elevated concentrations of aerosols lead to considerable attenuation of the laser light which reduces the S/N-ratio. In the moderately polluted air of Julich, where we performed a number of OH measurement spectra. In addition absorption features of unidentified species were frequently detected. A quantitative deconvolution even of the known species is not easy to achieve and can leave residual structures in the spectra. Thus interferences usually increase the noise and deteriorate the OH detection sensitivity. Using diode arrays for sensitive absorption measurements some specific problems of those detectors have to be solved experimentally (i.e. fixed pattern noise, dark signal noise, nonuniform efficiency of individual elements, spatial sensitivity variations). In order to improve the low spatial resolution we performed laboratory studies using a multiple reflection cell to convert the long path technique to a real in situ point measurement. Under the conditions of field experiments in Julich residual absorbance signals at present are about 1.5x10(exp -4) corresponding to an OH detection sensitivity of 2x10(exp 6) OH/cm(exp 3) using a light path of 5.8 km. Total integration times for one measurement point vary between a few minutes and an hour.

Dorn, Hans-Peter↗

Carbon emission responsive building control: A case study with an all-electric residential community in a cold climate

In the United States, buildings account for 35% of total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, making them important contributors to decarbonization. Carbon intensities in the power grid are time-varying and can fluctuate significantly within hours, so shifting building loads in response to the carbon intensities can reduce a building’s operational carbon emissions. This paper presents a rule-based carbon responsive control framework that controls the setpoints of thermostatically controlled loads responding to the grid’s carbon emission signals in real time. Based on this framework, four controllers are proposed with different combinations of carbon accounting methods and control rules. To evaluate their performance, we performed simulation studies using models of a 27-home, all-electric, net zero energy residential community located in Basalt, Colorado, United States. The carbon intensity data of four future years from the Cambium data set are adopted to account for the evolving resource mix in the power grid. Various performance metrics, including energy consumption, carbon emission, energy cost, and thermal discomfort, were used to evaluate the performance of the controllers. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine how the control thresholds and intervals affect the controllers’ performance. Simulation results indicate that the carbon responsive controllers can reduce the homes’ annual carbon emissions by 6.0% to 20.5%. However, the energy consumption increased by 0.9% to 6.7%, except in one scenario where it decreased by 2.2%. Compared to the baseline, the change in energy cost was between –2.9% and 3.4%, and thermal discomfort was also maintained within an acceptable range. The little impact on energy cost and thermal discomfort indicates there are no potential roadblocks for customer acceptance when rolling out the controllers in utility programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

VALENTInE: A Concept for a New Frontiers Class Long Duration In-Situ Balloon Mission to Venus

Venus and Earth are similar in bulk composition, size, density, and approximate distance from the Sun, yet Venus’s modern-day climate and surface geology is distinctly different [1]. Previous missions to Venus revealed unusual volcanic features, possible continental crust, widespread volcanic plains, a weak magnetic field [2], and insights into the Venusian atmosphere [3,4]. Unfortunately, data from these missions were limited in spatial and temporal resolution and global extent. A future mission to Venus is critical to address fundamental questions surrounding the chemical composition and dynamics of the Venusian atmosphere [5], its geologic history [6,7], its internal structure [8,9], and its habitability throughout time [10,11]. We present the Venus Air and Land Expedition: a Novel Trailblazer for In situ Exploration (VALENTInE) mission to meet this need. VALENTInE is a variable altitude balloon that will passively float in Venus’s atmosphere between 45 and 55 km altitude. VALENTInE will acquire atmospheric data at varying latitudes and longitudes in addition to mapping the surface geomorphology and mineralogy across multiple terrains. Mission Objectives: The VALENTInE mission concept is driven by four main science objectives: 1. Determine whether the driving force of the superrotation of Venus’s atmosphere is caused by horizontal or vertical momentum transport. 2. Determine whether the atmospheric composition and noble gas inventory of the Venusian atmosphere is a product of outgassing from the initial protoplanetary source or if there are significant contributions from exogenic sources. 3. Determine whether the tesserae regions (particularly Aphrodite Terra) are felsic and relatively older than surrounding regions. 4. Determine if there is any evidence of a recent dynamo preserved in the rock record of Venus. Mission Overview: A balloon architecture provides a robust system that can survive long-term in the Venusian environment while taking accurate measurements of the lower cloud deck and surface. Two prior balloon missions to Venus, VEGA 1 and VEGA 2 in 1984, have demonstrated the potential for such planetary exploration; however, these missions were short-lived (46 hr), with limited range (54 km). Our spacecraft concept consists of a battery powered balloon with a gondola and flyby carrier stage (Fig. 1). Our novel design allows for at least 15 days of atmospheric exploration, including multiple ascents and descents in the Venus atmosphere. VALENTInE is baselined to launch in 2032, cruise on solar power for 128 days, enter, descend, and inflate (EDI) into Venus’s atmosphere above Aphrodite Terra, and float in Venus’s atmosphere for a total nominal mission duration of 15 days. The balloon, able to control its altitude by changing its buoyancy, will make one full circumnavigation every 4–8 days and move poleward ~1 o latitude per day; it will be passively directed by the horizontal air currents on Venus. The balloon can only be controlled in the z direction, and the expected latitude range is ±10° from EDI. The balloon itself will be a tracer for atmospheric structures such as zonal winds [5, 12]. During the 15-day operational period, there will be five dips to 45 km for a compositional study of the lower atmosphere and geological and magnetic mapping of the surface. Dips are used to take images and measurements closer to the surface and to obtain in situ vertical atmospheric profiles between 45 and 55 km. Instruments: The VALENTInE instrument payload will allow for extensive study of the geology, atmosphere, and interior of Venus. The instrument suite consists of six instruments. The mission profile for each instrument is shown in Fig. 2. Lower Atmosphere Meteorology Analyzer (LAMA) is an atmospheric structure instrument consisting of a thermometer, barometer, and accelerometer to continuously measure temperature and pressure as a function of altitude, longitude, and latitude. TracE and Noble Gas Investigator (TENGI) is aneutral mass spectrometer used to sample the dense atmosphere. TENGI will operate continuously at 45 km and 55 km and will measure D/H ratios, as well as Ne, Ar, and O isotopic ratios. Kilometer Scale Spectral Imager (KSSI) is amultispectral imager (850-1150 nm) used to resolve surface features on the order of km. Near InfraRed Multispectral Photometer (NIRMP) is an Infrared (IR) photometer used to image the surface through the clouds to characterize mineral assemblages at five different areas of the surface. NIRMP will be operated during dwell. ELevation REConnaissance (ELREC) is a light detection and ranging (LIDAR) instrument used for measuring topography at five different areas of the surface. The ELREC data will be combined with those of NIRMP to determine mineral assemblages and how they correlate to topography. Magnetic Exploration and Interior Detective (MEID) is a magnetometer used to detect any near-surface magnetic anomalies. The magnetometer will continuously operate at all altitudes. Mission Design: The spacecraft’s propulsion system will have a wet mass of 930 kg and will be launched on an Atlas V rocket. The spacecraft will jettison the payload upon arrival in Venus’s atmosphere before decelerating to orbital velocity. Figure 2. Notional power-dip profile while the balloon is on the dayside. Risks and Challenges: Raising and lowering the spacecraft to dip beneath the haze layer require a large amount of energy. This issue was partly compensated by limiting the number of dips over the 15 day prime mission. Power needs for pumping helium are reduced by slowing the descent speed, which consequently increases spatial resolution of in situ measurements between 45 and 55 km. The main limitation for the duration of the mission is the need to carry 15 days’ worth of batteries. The bus experiences external Venusian temperatures ranging from ~27°C at 55 km altitude to ~110°C at 45 km altitude. These high atmospheric temperatures require thermal protection for the bus (instruments, electronics, and flight systems) during its descent, dwell at 45 km, and ascent. The bus is maintained at a mechanically safe temperature range of -10°C to 50°C using white external paint, multi-layer insulation (MLI), mechanical/thermal isolation (e.g. Ti, composites), and ~57 kg of Phase Change Materials (PCM). Images and spectra taken below the haze dominate the available data transmission regardless of the time spent at 45 km. Therefore, less time at the lower altitude mainly reduces the coverage of in situ measurements there. Further, we assumed an unrealistically low-density material for the helium storage tanks on the gondola. However, this issue is partially resolved if we were to jettison 75% of the spent helium storage tanks. After the entry process, the balloon volume remains mostly inflated and storage tanks are required only for reducing balloon volume in dipping to 45 km. This mission was planned against an expected New Frontiers 5 (NF5) cost cap of $1B, as the NF5 call had not yet been released. The mission we describe fits within the predicted cost cap if the flyby carrier stage, responsible for powering the spacecraft during cruise and for relaying in situ measurements back to Earth, can be contributed by another space agency. Acknowledgments: We thank the JPL Planetary Science Summer School, especially A. Nash, J. Scully, K. Mitchell, L. Lowes, and J. Armijo, and our mentors from JPL Team X. Thank you to our review panel for their insightful review. References: [1] Kane, S. et al. (2019) JGR:Ps, 124 , 2015–2028. [2] Phillips, J. L., & Russell, C. T. (1987). JGR: Space Physics , 92 (A3), 2253-2263. [3] Nakamura, M. et al. (2018) Earth Planets Space, 70 (1), 144. [4] Svedhem, H. et al. (2009) JGR:P 114 (E5). [5] Limaye et al. (2009) Decadal Survey White Paper . [6] Ivanov, M. and Head, J. (2011) PSS, 59 (13) , 1559-1600. [7] Smrekar, S. et al. (2018) Space Sci Rev, 214 (5), 88. [8] O’Rourke, J. et al. (2018) EPSL, 502 , 46-56. [9] O’Rourke J. et al. (2019) GRL , (46), 5768–5777 [10] Way, M. et al. (2016) GRL, 43 (16), 8376-8383. [11] Way, M. et al. (2020) JGR:P, 125 (5), e2019JE006276. [12] Preston, R. A. et al. (1986) Science, 231 (4744), 1414-1416.

Mission Concept↗

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - Simulated Marine Hydrokinetic Tidal Turbine

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis, hydrogen compression and storage, and variable hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset is part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with other energy technologies. This dataset contains inputs and outputs from simulations of a floating marine hydrokinetic turbine over approximately half a tidal cycle (~6.6 hours). Inflow conditions were derived from field measurements in Alaska’s Cook Inlet and represent a tidal environment in which the current speed ramps from near 0 m/s to a peak of 3 m/s and back. The original acoustic doppler current profiler dataset is publicly available on the Marine and Hydrokinetic Data Repository. In a full tidal cycle, the flow reverses and the rotor would reorient; this reversal was not modeled. In the Cook Inlet campaign , turbulence intensity was similar in both directions. Two inflow cases are included. In the first case, labeled “raw” in the files, the measured current time series was used directly in the InflowWind module of OpenFAST. Speed and direction were applied as a function of time and elevation, uniformly in the horizontal direction. With full spatial coherence, this approach captures high turbulent variability and results in pronounced power fluctuations, so it is considered a conservative, near-worst-case representation of loading. In the second case, labeled “average” in the files, a 30-minute moving average was applied to extract the slowly varying mean speed. The residual fluctuations about this mean were used to generate spatially varying, full-field turbulence inputs with TurbSim, giving a more physically realistic representation of the inflow across the rotor disk. Two random realizations were used to produce distinct inflow conditions for two OpenFAST simulations representing a two-turbine array. The same turbulence intensity is applied across the full time series, producing larger fluctuations at the start and end, where the mean speed is low. The second case is the more appropriate framework for performance and power assessment but overpredicts turbulence at lower flow speeds and underpredicts it at higher speeds. As the floating platform moves and the rotor changes its x-position, Taylor’s frozen turbulence hypothesis used by InflowWind assumes a constant rather than a time-varying mean velocity, introducing some inaccuracy in the velocity plane sampling. The turbine modeled is the 500-kW Reference Model 1, a horizontal-axis two-bladed hydrokinetic turbine on a four-column floating semisubmersible substructure . Simulations were performed using OpenFAST v4.1 with the Reference Open Source Controller (ROSCO) v2.10. All input files required to reproduce the simulations are included. The electrolyzer is a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 system manufactured by Nel . This unit supports up to 2.5 MW, but NLR has only a single 1.25-MW stack. The datasets report hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. The system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operating current of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The simulated tidal turbine time series data was translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz. Each zip file represents a single tidal electrolysis experiment and is named: {technology}_{inflow method}_{number of 500 kW tidal turbines connected} For instance, “tidal-500kW-RM1_average_2.zip” is a 6-hour experiment using the 500-kW tidal reference model, scaled by 2x (1-MW) to better match the electrolyzer maximum of 1.25MW, fed with the 30-minute moving average current case. Each zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file of raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production in kilograms per hour, electrolysis power consumption, and input wave power. A .csv file combines all tidal profiles as "combined_tidal_experiments.csv." A separate experiment, “characterization_200.zip,” shows the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps over 5 hours and is accessible with this entry.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Rewarding Grid-Friendly Behavior: Estimating the Potential Bill Reduction and Load Shifting Benefits of Dynamic Prices

Shifting electric load from times of peak demand can be a key strategy to slow price growth as reducing peak demand avoids the cost of upgrading generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure. Utilities are releasing time-varying prices, such as time of use rates or dynamic prices, to incentivize grid-friendly load shifting. New dynamic price programs provide insight into the true cost of operating electricity grids and the potential economic benefits of load shifting. Program developers and device manufacturers need to understand the economic opportunities in terms of 1) the variation in prices across hours, days, and seasons; 2) the change in utility bills for customers who don’t shift load; and 3) the potential load shifted and economic value of different technologies if manufacturers or aggregators deploy price-responsive controls. This paper estimates possible impacts of dynamic price adoption and load shifting controls if customers paid the dynamic rate from one pilot program. Statistical analysis of historical prices identified annual and seasonal metrics as well as representative price curves for each circuit in the pilot. Simulations for residential technologies with price-responsive controls including unitary heat pump water heaters, central multifamily heat pump water heaters, heating & cooling + storage systems, and pool pumps estimated the potential impacts of highly dynamic prices both with and without load shifting controls. Results showed the potential to reduce electricity costs on representative days by 42-94% and reduce consumption during times of high electricity prices by 63-100% compared to baseline operation for those flex-friendly devices.

Grant, Peter↗

Analysis of Base Metal Microstructures and Mechanical Properties of a Single-Piece, Spin-Formed Forward Pressure Vessel Bulkhead

In 2012, a pathfinder forward pressure vessel bulkhead (FPVBH) for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) was fabricated using aluminum (Al) alloy 2219. The demonstration article was offered as a replacement for the baseline configuration, which at that time was a multi-piece welded construction using aluminum-lithium (Al-Li) alloy 2195. In 2014, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) funded a Phase I effort to explore spin-forming as a manufacturing method to produce a complex-shaped, single-piece FPVBH for the crew module (CM) [1]. The primary focus of the NESC effort was to expand spin-forming technology to the fabrication of an Al-Li 2195 FPVBH. As a result, limited testing and analysis was performed on the original Al 2219 article. In this study, a sufficiently large plate of Al 2219 was not available for the fabrication of a FPVBH. Therefore, the forming blank comprised two plates (from different lots) butt welded together using a single friction stir weld. The welded forming blank was then spin formed into the FPVBH configuration and heat treated to the T62 temper. Mechanical property testing of the spin-formed 2219-T62 FPVBH revealed that the tensile properties were comparable to the Metallic Material Properties Development and Standardization (MMPDS) A-basis allowable for Al 2219-T6 wrought products. However, post-spin forming application of the standard heat treatment produced large, recrystallized grains in the material. The response varied within the two plates; one plate lot exhibited nearly complete recrystallization, while the other lot contained bands of recrystallization. Although no reduction in tensile properties was observed due to these microstructural variations, a more detailed investigation was recommended to better understand the effect of spin forming on the recrystallization mechanism and the impact on other material properties. The current study examined the microstructure and mechanical properties of the fully processed Al 2219-T62 FPVBH with emphasis on comparing differences between the two plates. Testing was limited to the cone region of the FPVBH. The two specific tasks in this study were: a) Characterization of the microstructure and mechanical properties in the two plates used in the FPVBH. b) Isolation of the impact of each step in the thermo-mechanical processing (TMP) sequence of the FPVBH on recrystallization and grain growth. Mechanical property testing sampled regions containing both large, recrystallized and small, unrecrystallized grains. Tensile strengths and elongations were equivalent in both regions and exceeded MMPDS A-basis allowables. Fracture toughness was equivalent in both regions and fracture morphology was typical of aluminum alloys. The fatigue precrack region of the fracture toughness specimens appeared more faceted in the recrystallized plate. This suggests that property testing that is more sensitive to grain size, such as fatigue crack growth rate and stress corrosion cracking, may be warranted. Alcoa reviewed the production records for the two plate lots and confirmed that composition of both plates was within the allowable range for Al 2219 and that plate processing steps were all performed within production limits. However, the Fe content was notably higher in the fully recrystallized plate, resulting in a greater volume fraction of large Fe-bearing inclusions and Al-Cu constituent particles. Alcoa did not provide details regarding plate processing variables for the two plate lots. It was surmised that deformation by hot rolling was the most accurate TMP simulation of commercial spin forming within a laboratory setting. Both hot rolling and spin forming comprise combinations of shear and compressive deformation. The through-thickness strain caused by hot rolling is symmetrical about the mid-plane, as the rollers contact both sides of the material. Shear strains are maximum at the inner and outer surfaces and trend toward zero at the mid-thickness. In contrast, spin forming utilizes a single roller on the outer surface, producing a gradient in shear stress through the thickness. Shear strains in spin-formed material are highest at the outer surface due to direct contact with the roller, and trend toward zero at the inner surface. Consequently, there will undoubtedly be some discrepancies in the mechanical response of hot-rolled and spin-formed products in the through-thickness direction. Interrupted TMP simulations were performed on remnant plate from the FPVBH forming blank in order to isolate the effects of a post-weld anneal, spin-forming deformation/thermal cycling, and solution heat treatment (SHT) on development of the recrystallized microstructures. Analysis confirmed that large, recrystallized grains formed exclusively during SHT and only after a certain deformation level was exceeded. Remnant plate from both lots that received thermal processing only did not exhibit recrystallization but exhibited fully recrystallized microstructures when processed by hot rolling. This indicates that (1) the level of deformation exceeded the critical level for recrystallization in both plates and (2) that the level of deformation during hot rolling was greater than that which accumulated during spin forming of the FPVBH. Comparison of the hot-rolled plate with the spin-formed material showed that the recrystallized grain size was larger in the FPVBH, providing further evidence that deformation levels were lower in the FPVBH. The most plausible explanation for the differing degrees of recrystallization in the two plates is particle stimulated nucleation (PSN) at the Fe-bearing inclusions and large Al-Cu constituent particles. In the plate with higher solute content, the greater volume fraction of these particles reduces the deformation level required to promote recrystallization. During spin forming the critical deformation level was likely exceeded for the higher Fe content plate resulting in a fully recrystallized microstructure. The lower Fe content plate developed a microstructure that exhibited bands of recrystallization due to the combination of a non-uniform distribution of particles and deformation. The critical deformation required for recrystallization was likely only exceeded during spin forming in regions of higher particle content. While there were differences in Fe content between these lots of Al 2219 plate, the composition of both was within defined alloy limits and Alcoa reported no anomalies during plate production. The observed differences in recrystallization after spin forming may reflect the inherent variability between these two lots of plate. The spin-forming vendor, Spincraft, reported that similar variations in recrystallized microstructures have been observed during examination of multiple spin-forming trials of a different 2xxx series aluminum alloy. Hence, tighter chemical specification limits on impurity levels in Al 2219 plate may help ensure uniform, predictable microstructures. Finally, the tensile and fracture toughness properties were not affected by the microstructural variations noted.

single-piece↗

Navigating the Dynamic Noise Landscape of Variational Quantum Algorithms with QISMET

In the Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) era, the dynamic nature of quantum systems causes noise sources to constantly vary over time. Transient errors from the dynamic NISQ noise landscape are challenging to comprehend and are especially detrimental to classes of applications that are iterative and/or long-running, and therefore their timely mitigation is important for quantum advantage in real-world applications. The most popular examples of iterative long-running quantum applications are variational quantum algorithms (VQAs). Iteratively, VQA’s classical optimizer evaluates circuit candidates on an objective function and picks the best circuits towards achieving the application’s target. Noise fluctuation can cause a significant transient impact on the objective function estimation of the VQA iterations’ tuning candidates. This can severely affect VQA tuning and, by extension, its accuracy and convergence. Furthermore, this paper proposes QISMET: Quantum Iteration Skipping to Mitigate Error Transients, to navigate the dynamic noise landscape of VQAs. QISMET actively avoids instances of high fluctuating noise which are predicted to have a significant transient error impact on specific VQA iterations. To achieve this, QISMET estimates transient error in VQA iterations and designs a controller to keep the VQA tuning faithful to the transient-free scenario. By doing so, QISMET efficiently mitigates a large portion of the transient noise impact on VQAs and is able to improve the fidelity by 1.3x-3x over a traditional VQA baseline, with 1.6-2.4x improvement over alternative approaches, across different applications and machines.

Ravi, Gokul Subramanian↗

Earth as a Proxy Exoplanet: Deconstructing and Reconstructing Spectrophotometric Light Curves

Point-source spectrophotometric (single-point) light curves of Earth-like planets contain a surprising amount of information about the spatial features of those worlds. Spatially resolving these light curves is important for assessing time-varying surface features and the existence of an atmosphere, which in turn is critical to life on Earth and significant for determining habitability on exoplanets. Given that Earth is the only celestial body confirmed to harbor life, treating it as a proxy exoplanet by analyzing time-resolved spectral images provides a benchmark in the search for habitable exoplanets. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) provides such an opportunity, with observations of ∼5000 full-disk sunlit Earth images each year at 10 wavelengths with high temporal frequency. We disk-integrate these spectral images to create single-point light curves and decompose them into principal components (PCs). Using machine-learning techniques to relate the PCs to six preselected spatial features, we find that the first and fourth PCs of the single-point light curves, contributing ∼83.23% of the light-curve variability, contain information about low and high clouds, respectively. Surface information relevant to the contrast between land and ocean reflectance is contained in the second PC, while individual land subtypes are not easily distinguishable (<0.1% total light-curve variation). We build an Earth model by systematically altering the spatial features to derive causal relationships to the PCs. This model can serve as a baseline for analyzing Earth-like exoplanets and guide wavelength selection and sampling strategies for future observations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Deploying a Route Optimization EFB Application for Commercial Airline Operational Trials

The Traffic Aware Planner (TAP), developed for NASA Langley Research Center to support the Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR) project, is a flight-efficiency software application developed for an Electronic Flight Bag (EFB). Tested in two flight trials and planned for operational testing by two commercial airlines, TAP is a real-time trajectory optimization application that leverages connectivity with onboard avionics and broadband Internet sources to compute and recommend route modifications to flight crews to improve fuel and time performance. The application utilizes a wide range of data, including Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) traffic, Flight Management System (FMS) guidance and intent, on-board sensors, published winds and weather, and Special Use Airspace (SUA) schedules. This paper discusses the challenges of developing and deploying TAP to various EFB platforms, our solutions to some of these challenges, and lessons learned, to assist commercial software developers and hardware manufacturers in their efforts to implement and extend TAP functionality in their environments. EFB applications (such as TAP) typically access avionics data via an ARINC 834 Simple Text Avionics Protocol (STAP) server hosted by an Aircraft Interface Device (AID) or other installed hardware. While the protocol is standardized, the data sources, content, and transmission rates can vary from aircraft to aircraft. Additionally, the method of communicating with the AID may vary depending on EFB hardware and/or the availability of onboard networking services, such as Ethernet, WIFI, Bluetooth, or other mechanisms. EFBs with portable and installed components can be implemented using a variety of operating systems, and cockpits are increasingly incorporating tablet-based technologies, further expanding the number of platforms the application may need to support. Supporting multiple EFB platforms, AIDs, avionics datasets, and user interfaces presents a challenge for software developers and the management of their code baselines. Maintaining multiple baselines to support all deployment targets can be extremely cumbersome and expensive. Certification also needs to be considered when developing the application. Regardless of whether the software is itself destined to be certified, data requirements in support of the application and user interface elements may introduce certification requirements for EFB manufacturers and the airlines. The example of TAP, the challenges faced, solutions implemented, and lessons learned will give EFB application and hardware developers insight into future potential requirements in deploying TAP or similar flight-deck EFB applications.

Roscoe, David A.↗

Evaluation of Aerosol Data Assimilation and Forecasts in the NASA GEOS Model during the ASIA-AQ Campaign

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) poses significant risks to human health and the environment by penetrating the lungs and causing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, making it crucial to understand its sources and behavior for effective air quality management. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Forward Processing (FP) system model, operated by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, provides real-time weather and aerosol analyses and forecasts. In addition to meteorological data assimilation, the GEOS-FP system also assimilates aerosol using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD data. In this study, the aerosol data assimilation and forecasts performance of the GEOS-FP model were evaluated for predicting PM2.5 in Korea using observations from the Airborne and Satellite Investigation of Asian Air Quality (ASIA-AQ) campaign. The ASIA-AQ campaign, an international collaborative field study initiative, aims to enhance understanding of local air quality issues and address common challenges in interpreting satellite data and air quality modeling. Conducted in South Korea from February 15 to March 13, 2024, during the high PM2.5 concentration winter season, this campaign provided extensive airborne and ground observations for intensive analysis of PM2.5 model simulations. We demonstrate how the assimilation runs and the forecasting performance of PM2.5 at 24-hour and 48-hour intervals vary. Additionally, we analyzed the differences and characteristics of PM2.5 composition in cases of long-range transport and local emissions. Using ASIA-AQ airborne data, we also examined the vertical profile of fine particulate matter. Through the intensive observations of this campaign, the GEOS model was assessed over South Korea using both in situ and airborne measurements to establish a baseline and identify priorities for future development.

Seunghee Lee↗

Evaluating Model Parameterizations of Submicron Aerosol Scattering and Absorption with in situ Data from ARCTAS 2008

Accurate modeling of the scattering and absorption of ultraviolet and visible radiation by aerosols is essential for accurate simulations of atmospheric chemistry and climate. Closure studies using in situ measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption can be used to evaluate and improve models of aerosol optical properties without interference from model errors in aerosol emissions, transport, chemistry, or deposition rates. Here we evaluate the ability of four externally mixed, fixed size distribution parameterizations used in global models to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption at three wavelengths using in situ data gathered during the 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) campaign. The four models are the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Combo model, GEOS-Chem v9- 02, the baseline configuration of a version of GEOS-Chem with online radiative transfer calculations (called GC-RT), and the Optical Properties of Aerosol and Clouds (OPAC v3.1) package. We also use the ARCTAS data to perform the first evaluation of the ability of the Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP v2.1) to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption when in situ data on the aerosol size distribution are used, and examine the impact of different mixing rules for black carbon (BC) on the results. We find that the GMI model tends to overestimate submicron scattering and absorption at shorter wavelengths by 10-23 percent, and that GMI has smaller absolute mean biases for submicron absorption than OPAC v3.1, GEOS-Chem v9-02, or GC-RT. However, the changes to the density and refractive index of BC in GCRT improve the simulation of submicron aerosol absorption at all wavelengths relative to GEOS-Chem v9-02. Adding a variable size distribution, as in ASP v2.1, improves model performance for scattering but not for absorption, likely due to the assumption in ASP v2.1 that BC is present at a constant mass fraction throughout the aerosol size distribution. Using a core-shell mixing rule in ASP overestimates aerosol absorption, especially for the fresh biomass burning aerosol measured in ARCTAS-B, suggesting the need for modeling the time-varying mixing states of aerosols in future versions of ASP.

Alvarado, Matthew J.↗

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Wind

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .

08 HYDROGEN↗

Cleaning at the Edge of Science: NASA's Genesis Mission

As part of NASA's continuing exploration of the origins of our solar system, the California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the Johnson Space Center are working together to develop the Genesis mission to return solar matter for analysis in terrestrial laboratories. These samples will be used to define a baseline for the chemical and isotopic composition of the solar nebula. Deviations from the baseline resulted as the solar system evolved; thus, providing a tracer for materials incorporated into meteorites, comets and planetary bodies. These differences represent "fossil residues" that provide invaluable insight into how the solar nebula evolved to form the planets. We cannot collect a sample of the Sun as we would for a planet; fortunately, solar material comes to us in the form of the solar wind. Ultrapure materials will be exposed at the Earth-Sun L1, outside the Earth's magnetic influence, where solar wind nuclei will be captured for 2 years before returning to Earth in January 2001. The key challenge to obtaining a good sample of solar wind, uncontaminated by terrestrial atoms, is a clean collection surface in a clean sample canister and clean facilities with which to handle the samples for allocation and future reference. The Johnson Space Center QSQ is responsible for contamination control for the mission, for ensuring the cleanliness of collection surfaces and providing a clean environment for their subsequent handling. The level of cleanliness required is high; at the time of analysis (after sample return), the surface contamination by C, N, O must each be less than 10(exp 15) atoms per centimeter squared and for elements other than C, N, O, the number of atoms per centimeter squared of each surface contaminant shall not exceed the estimated solar wind fluence of the species (varies by element between U at approx. 10 (exp 4) atoms per centimeter squared to Fe, Si, Mg, and Ne at approx. 10(exp 12), atoms per centimeter squared). Typical spacecraft assembly is done in class 10,000 cleanrooms. The final cleaning and reintegration of the Genesis payload canister as well as all sample material handling will be done within a class 10 cleanroom using Dryden suits to protect the collector materials from any human debris. Each component is unique, no standard size, shape, material, or precleaning history. We are developing new final cleaning techniques utilizing ultra-pure water to minimize molecular residues on the hardware components.

Stansbery, Eileen K.↗