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At least 253 records · Page 14

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding

Coastal flooding from storm surge is one of the most dangerous and damaging natural hazards that societies face. It was responsible for half of all hurricane related mortalities in the United States from 1963 to 2012, far more than any other factor. Coastal extreme water levels are increasing globally, mainly driven by rises in mean sea level. Sea level rise is also causing rapid increases in the annual number of shallow “nuisance floods” for low-lying neighborhoods. The objectives of this chapter are to review the latest knowledge on New York City flood risk from storms and tides, and to evaluate how climate change will affect this risk between now and the end of the century. Methods used by NPCC (2015) for assessing storm-driven extreme floods are generally repeated here, including the use of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2013) baseline flood hazards (e.g., the 100-year flood(sup a)) and the methods for adding sea level rise and mapping the resulting hazard. New advancements include an innovative analysis of monthly tidal flooding based on a dynamic model, a broadened set of sea level rise scenarios supplemented with the Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) scenario (see Chapter 3), and sensitivity analyses that show how differing methods would affect our results. Wind is a primary factor for coastal storm surge, and a brief review is given in Appendix 4.A, with the latest scientific knowledge on what drives extreme wind events in the New York City area and how they may change in the future.

Orton, Philip↗

The Grid Value of Ocean Current Energy in Florida: Preprint

Ocean current technology has been proposed as a potential contributor to Florida's energy portfolio. There has been limited investigation of how this energy would be valued when integrated into the Florida electrical grid. This study assesses three future grid scenarios to evaluate the impact of adding ocean current to each. NREL's capacity expansion model, Resource Planning Model, is used to identify the least-cost generation mix through 2050, with and without ocean current. The first scenario, Business as Usual, Base case assuming current policies, ocean current does not replace fossil-based technologies. In the second scenario, we allow solar and storage to have lower costs than the first scenario which allows ocean current to retire gas earlier and more variable generation technologies to be deployed. In the third scenario, the Florida carbon constraint 95 by 2050 from 2020 levels case, ocean current can play a bigger role in decarbonization than the two other cases when coupled with other technologies.

capacity expansion model↗

Incorporating long-range dependence and fractal features in turbulence spectra

We introduce an advanced turbulence spectrum model developed from mathematical foundations from a covariance function class and empirically validated using extensive field data. This model captures the complex dynamics of long-range dependence, and fractal characteristics prevalent in riverine and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows that are ignored by classical spectrum models, such as IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) von Kármán and Kaimal model. The model delineates scaling behaviors across distinct frequency bands and offers substantial flexibility through five well-defined parameters each characterizing a distinct physical aspect of the velocity time series. A detailed procedure for obtaining each parameter from time series data is outlined. The comprehensive validations with field data from tidal currents and ABL flows substantiate the model’s fidelity in accurately replicating observed phenomena. This validation establishes the reliability of the proposed model and, when incorporated into stochastic full-field simulators such as TurbSim, demonstrates its potential to advance the predictive modeling and analysis of turbulent flows in environmental science and engineering contexts.

Cheng, Shyuan [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champai↗

Comments on lunar origin.

Consideration of the tidal evolution of the earth-moon system in the light of recent published studies of lunar origin. The subjects include the factors of orbital evolution, the auxiliary Model Zero, orbital evolution along the outgoing branch, capture models, capture probability, capture with break-up, the tidal evolution of circular and elliptical fragmented rings, and precession and collisions in a ring of fragments. A numerical integration of precessions is performed for the actual nonzero mass of the moon and for a lunar distance of about 22 earth radii. A simplified Model Zero is found to compare well with Goldreich's solution (1968). It is concluded that the moon must have become freely yielding to tidal deformation at distances less than about 8 earth radii. Arguments are given in favor of the capture theory as a basis for the genesis of the moon.

Opik, E. J.↗

Ice-Shelf Tidal Flexure and Subglacial Pressure Variations

We develop a model of an ice shelf-ice stream system as a viscoelastic beam partially supported by an elastic foundation. When bed rock near the grounding line acts as a fulcrum, leverage from the ice shelf dropping at low tide can cause significant (approx 1 cm) uplift in the first few kilometers of grounded ice.This uplift and the corresponding depression at high tide lead to basal pressure variations of sufficient magnitude to influence subglacial hydrology.Tidal flexure may thus affect basal lubrication, sediment flow, and till strength, all of which are significant factors in ice-stream dynamics and grounding-line stability. Under certain circumstances, our results suggest the possibility of seawater being drawn into the subglacial water system. The presence of sea water beneath grounded ice would significantly change the radar reflectivity of the grounding zone and complicate the interpretation of grounded versus floating ice based on ice-penetrating radar observations.

tidal↗

Tidally forced viscous heating in a partially molten Io

Models of Io that generate most of their heat by viscous dissipation in a partially molten (perhaps nearly liquid) asthenosphere are developed: a partially molten asthenosphere model and a partially molten interior model. An approximate thermal analysis is carried out, suggesting the possibility of a stable steady state. The models are consistent with observations of widely dispersed hot spots on the Io surface that radiate most of Io's heat loss. The hot spots imply that magmas carry most of the dissipative heating that is naturally accounted for in the models.

Ross, M. N.↗

On the diurnal variations in the temperature and composition - A three-dimensional model with superrotation

An improved (Mayr et al., 1980) three-dimensional multiconstituent spectral model of the Venus thermosphere dynamics is presented, which describes the diurnal variations in the atmospheric composition (in terms of O, CO, and CO2 densities obtained by ONMS and OIMS, temperature, and wind fields on the basis of simplified theoretical interpretations of data obtained by the Pioneer Venus mission. The improved model accounts for nonlinear processes, includes higher order tidal elements, and describes the major gases in self-consistent form. Also presented is a self-consistent, nonlinear solution from a two-dimensional quasi-axisymmetric spectral model which describes the four-day superrotation in the lower atmosphere.

Mayr, H. G.↗

A Global Ocean Tide Model From TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimetry: GOT99.2

Goddard Ocean Tide model GOT99.2 is a new solution for the amplitudes and phases of the global oceanic tides, based on over six years of sea-surface height measurements by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Comparison with deep-ocean tide-gauge measurements show that this new tidal solution is an improvement over previous global models, with accuracies for the main semidiurnal lunar constituent M2 now below 1.5 cm (deep water only). The new solution benefits from use of prior hydrodynamic models, several in shallow and inland seas as well as the global finite-element model FES94.1. This report describes some of the data processing details involved in handling the altimetry, and it provides a comprehensive set of global cotidal charts of the resulting solutions. Various derived tidal charts are also provided, including tidal loading deformation charts, tidal gravimetric charts, and tidal current velocity (or transport) charts. Finally, low-degree spherical harmonic coefficients are computed by numerical quadrature and are tabulated for the major short-period tides; these are useful for a variety of geodetic and geophysical purposes, especially in combination with similar estimates from satellite laser ranging.

Ray, Richard D.↗

CM6: A Comprehensive Geomagnetic Field Model Derived From Both CHAMP and Swarm Satellite Observations

From the launch of the Oersted satellite in 1999, through the CHAMP mission from 2000 to 2010, and now with the Swarm constellation mission starting in 2013, satellite magnetometry has provided excellent monitoring of the near-Earth magnetic field regime. The advanced Comprehensive Inversion scheme has been applied to data before Swarm and to the Swarm data itself, but now for the first time to all the satellite data in this new era, culminating in the CM6 model. The highlights of this model include not only a continuous core magnetic field description over the entire time period 1999 to 2019.5 in good agreement with the CHAOS model series, but the addition of two new oceanic tidal magnetic sources: the larger lunar elliptic semi-diurnal constituent N2 and the lunar diurnal constituent O1. CM6 is also the parent model of the NASA/GSFC candidates for the DGRF2015 and IGRF2020 in response to the IGRF-13 call. This paper provides a full report on the development of CM6.

Geomagnetism↗

The Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone for Synchronously Rotating Planets Around Low-Mass Stars Using General Circulation Models

Terrestrial planets at the inner edge of the habitable zone (HZ) of late-K and M-dwarf stars are expected to be in synchronous rotation, as a consequence of strong tidal interactions with their host stars. Previous global climate model (GCM) studies have shown that, for slowly rotating planets, strong convection at the substellar point can create optically thick water clouds, increasing the planetary albedo, and thus stabilizing the climate against a thermal runaway. However these studies did not use self-consistent orbital/rotational periods for synchronously rotating planets placed at different distances from the host star. Here we provide new estimates of the inner edge of the HZ for synchronously rotating terrestrial planets around late-K and M-dwarf stars using a 3D Earth-analog GCM with self-consistent relationships between stellar metallicity, stellar effective temperature, and the planetary orbital/rotational period. We find that both atmospheric dynamics and the efficacy of the substellar cloud deck are sensitive to the precise rotation rate of the planet. Around mid-to-late M-dwarf stars with low metallicity, planetary rotation rates at the inner edge of the HZ become faster, and the inner edge of the HZ is farther away from the host stars than in previous GCM studies. For an Earth-sized planet, the dynamical regime of the substellar clouds begins to transition as the rotation rate approaches ∼10 days. These faster rotation rates produce stronger zonal winds that encircle the planet and smear the substellar clouds around it, lowering the planetary albedo, and causing the onset of the water-vapor greenhouse climatic instability to occur at up to ∼25% lower incident stellar fluxes than found in previous GCM studies. For mid-to-late M-dwarf stars with high metallicity and for mid-K to early-M stars, we agree with previous studies.

Planet and satellite atmospheres↗

Tidal Prediction

Tides are the most predictable of oceanographic phenomena, due both to the simplicity and predictability of the astronomical forcing and to the near linearity of the ocean's dynamical response. In the classical and simplest scenario, tidal prediction is based on harmonic analysis of past measurements at a fixed location. Limits to predictability arise because isolated astronomical spectral lines are broadened into "cusps" of incoherent energy, for example through interactions with non-tidal flows. Tidal prediction at locations without past measurements has historically been a major challenge, but, owing to near-global observations of modern satellite altimeters, the empirical harmonic approach now yields reasonably accurate predictions throughout most of the open ocean. Advances in numerical modeling and data assimilation allow these predictions to be refined (especially in shallow seas where observations remain insufficient to directly constrain tidal wave structure) and extended to include tidal currents. We review recent progress in the development of global and regional-scale tidal prediction capabilities, summarize accuracy of available charts, and briefly consider outstanding issues. Satellite altimetry has also helped unravel the global tidal energy budget and has clarified the role of internal tides as a sink of tidal energy. We summarize these results, and then turn to the challenging problem of predicting internal tides. To the extent that low modes remain coherent with the surface tide, elevations can be directly mapped. We review current efforts in this direction, which are already producing charts with predictive capability. However, internal tides (especially higher modes) interact much more strongly with lower-frequency ocean flows, so a significant fraction of this tidal signal is intermittent and incoherent. We close with a brief review of ongoing efforts to model global tides in combination with wind-forced ocean motions.

Harmonic Constants↗

Resonant Tidal Excitation of Internal Waves in the Earth's Fluid Core

It has long been speculated that there is a stably stratified layer below the core-mantle boundary, and two recent studies have improved the constraints on the parameters describing this stratification. Here we consider the dynamical implications of this layer using a simplified model. We first show that the stratification in this surface layer has sensitive control over the rate at which tidal energy is transferred to the core. We then show that when the stratification parameters from the recent studies are used in this model, a resonant configuration arrives whereby tidal forces perform elevated rates of work in exciting core flow. Specifically, the internal wave speed derived from the two independent studies (150 and 155 m/s) are in remarkable agreement with the speed (152 m/s) required for excitation of the primary normal mode of oscillation as calculated from full solutions of the Laplace Tidal Equations applied to a reduced-gravity idealized model representing the stratified layer. In evaluating this agreement it is noteworthy that the idealized model assumed may be regarded as the most reduced representation of the stratified dynamics of the layer, in that there are no non-essential dynamical terms in the governing equations assumed. While it is certainly possible that a more realistic treatment may require additional dynamical terms or coupling, it is also clear that this reduced representation includes no freedom for coercing the correlation described. This suggests that one must accept either (1) that tidal forces resonantly excite core flow and this is predicted by a simple model or (2) that either the independent estimates or the dynamical model does not accurately portray the core surface layer and there has simply been an unlikely coincidence between three estimates of a stratification parameter which would otherwise have a broad plausible range.

Geodynamo↗

Tidal interactions in the expanding universe - The formation of prolate systems

The study estimates the magnitude of the anisotropy that can be tidally induced in neighboring initially spherical protostructures, be they protogalaxies, protoclusters, or even uncollapsed density enhancements in the large-scale structure of the universe. It is shown that the linear analysis of tidal interactions developed by Peebles (1969) predicts that the anisotropy energy of a perturbation grows to first order in a small dimensionless parameter, whereas the net angular momentum acquired is of second order. A simple model is presented for the growth of anisotropy by tidal interactions during the nonlinear stage of the development of perturbations. A possible observational test is described of the alignment predicted by the model between the orientations of large-scale perturbations and the positions of neighboring density enhancements.

Binney, J.↗

An Io thermal model with intermittent volcanism

Observations have indicated that heat flow out of Io at present may be several times greater than the heat input from enhanced tidal heating; this may indicate that the observed heat flow is intermittent, rather than continuous. A two-dimensional time-dependent thermal model of Io was constructed to examine the relationship between enhanced tidal heating, heat flow within the body, and surface volcanism. From the models one can conclude that (1) a simple homogeneous body cannot maintain enhanced tidal heating in a thin crust, but such heating is possible if the crust contains an insulating layer, as of sulfur; (2) this sulfur layer will be subject to melting by heat from the interior, resulting in hotspots which can expel heat much more rapidly than tidal heating inputs it; and (3) the location of these hotspots will vary in time and space; they can appear anywhere on the surface, even if tidal heating is concentrated at the poles, and they seem to occur roughly 10% of the time.

Consolmagno, G. J.↗

The Mathematics of Navigating the Solar System

In navigating spacecraft throughout the solar system, the space navigator relies on three academic disciplines - optimization, estimation, and control - that work on mathematical models of the real world. Thus, the navigator determines the flight path that will consume propellant and other resources in an efficient manner, determines where the craft is and predicts where it will go, and transfers it onto the optimal trajectory that meets operational and mission constraints. Mission requirements, for example, demand that observational measurements be made with sufficient precision that relativity must be modeled in collecting and fitting (the estimation process) the data, and propagating the trajectory. Thousands of parameters are now determined in near real-time to model the gravitational forces acting on a spacecraft in the vicinity of an irregularly shaped body. Completing these tasks requires mathematical models, analyses, and processing techniques. Newton, Gauss, Lambert, Legendre, and others are justly famous for their contributions to the mathematics of these tasks. More recently, graduate students participated in research to update the gravity model of the Saturnian system, including higher order gravity harmonics, tidal effects, and the influence of the rings. This investigation was conducted for the Cassini project to incorporate new trajectory modeling features in the navigation software. The resulting trajectory model will be used in navigating the 4-year tour of the Saturnian satellites. Also, undergraduate students are determining the ephemerides (locations versus time) of asteroids that will be used as reference objects in navigating the New Millennium's Deep Space 1 spacecraft autonomously.

Hintz, Gerald↗

Tidal Disruptions of Main Sequence Stars - I. Observable Quantities and their Dependence on Stellar and Black Hole Mass

This paper introduces a series of papers presenting a quantitative theory for the tidal disruption of main-sequence stars by supermassive black holes. Using fully general relativistic hydrodynamics simulations and MESA-model initial conditions, we explore the pericenter-dependence of tidal disruption properties for eight stellar masses(MM0.1510)and six black hole masses( MM105 105BH7). We present here the results most relevant to observations. The effects of internal stellar structure and relativity decouple for both the disruption cross section and the characteristic energy width of the debris. Moreover, the full disruption cross section is almost independent of Må for Må/Me3. Independent of Må, relativistic effects increase the critical pericenter distance for full disruption events by up to a factor of∼3 relative to the Newtonian prediction. The probability of a direct capture is also independent of Må; at MBH/Me;5×106 this probability is equal to the probability of a complete disruption. The breadth of the debris energy distribution ΔE can differ from the standard estimate by factors of0.35−2, depending on Må and MBH, implying a corresponding change(∝(ΔE)−3/2)in the characteristic mass-return timescale. We provide analytic forms, suitable for use in both event rate estimates and parameter inference, to describe all these trends. For partial disruptions, we find a nearly universal relation between the star’s angular momentum and the fraction of Må remaining. Within the “empty loss-cone” regime, partial disruptions must precede full disruptions. These partial disruptions can drastically affect the rate and appearance of subsequent total disruptions.

Taeho Ryu↗

Tidal Disruptions of Main Sequence Stars - II. Simulation Methodology and Stellar Mass Dependence of the Character of Full Tidal Disruptions

This paper introduces a series of papers presenting a quantitative theory for the tidal disruption of main-sequence stars by supermassive black holes. Using fully general relativistic hydrodynamics simulations and MESA-model initial conditions, we explore the pericenter-dependence of tidal disruption properties for eight stellar masses (0.15 < M_/M<10)and six black hole masses( ́10<MM105 105BH7). We present here the results most relevant to observations. The effects of internal stellar structure and relativity decouple for both the disruption cross section and the characteristic energy width of the debris. Moreover, the full disruption cross section is almost independent of Må for Må/Me3. Independent of Må, relativistic effects increase the critical pericenter distance for full disruption events by up to a factor of ∼3 relative to the Newtonian prediction. The probability of a direct capture is also independent of Må; at MBH/Me5×106this probability is equal to the probability of a complete disruption. The breadth of the debris energy distribution ΔE can differ from the standard estimate by factors of 0.35−2, depending on Må and MBH, implying a corresponding change(∝(ΔE)−3/2)in the characteristic mass-return timescale. We provide analytic forms, suitable for use in both event rate estimates and parameter inference, to describe all these trends. For partial disruptions, we find a nearly universal relation between the star’s angular momentum and the fraction of Må remaining. Within the “empty loss-cone” regime, partial disruptions must precede full disruptions. These partial disruptions can drastically affect the rate and appearance of subsequent total disruptions

Taeho Ryu↗