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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comprehensive Analysis of Thirty Years of Land Change in Georgia: Forest Degradation, Land-Use Patterns, and Drivers

In this talk, we present results from a study, funded by the NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program, of thirty years of environmental change in the country of Georgia. The country, a former Soviet Union Republic, has experienced more political, economic and social change in the last 30 years than most countries. But the environmental implications of these extreme events remain largely unknown – the region is understudied, no national forest inventory has been completed in 20 years, and previous research in the area conducted by the authors were not successful. The latter statement is because of forest degradation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, much of the forestry infrastructure broke down and people resorted to chopping down individual trees. The result was in many parts of the country a reduction in forest biomass but not to the point of a change in land cover. This type of forest degradation, which was either gradual over decades or abrupt, could not be readily identified using the methods and data at our disposal at the time. In the recent study, we had full access to the Landsat archive in combination with computing power. By using monitoring methods that are based on time series analysis, we were able to capture and identify the gradual processes driven by small scale activities that are so characteristic of the post-Soviet Georgian landscape. We developed an approach (“CCDC-SMA”) that combines time series analysis and spectral mixture analysis running on Google Earth Engine for monitoring abrupt and gradual forest degradation. By using this approach, we found that forest degradation was significantly larger than the area estimate of deforestation; 3,541 ± 556 km2 (11% of the forest area in 1987) compared to 158 ± 98 km2 from 1987 to 2020. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. To further our understanding of the underlying causes, we combined forest disturbance estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. We found that higher winter temperature and drought were associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought were associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.

Pontus Olofsson↗
DOE OSTI2022

Point Cloud Based Mapping of Understory Shrub Fuel Distribution, Estimation of Fuel Consumption and Relationship to Pyrolysis Gas Emissions on Experimental Prescribed Burns

Forest fires spread via production and combustion of pyrolysis gases in the understory. The goal of the present paper is to understand the spatial location, distribution, and fraction (relative to the overstory) of understory plants, in this case, sparkleberry shrub, namely its degree of understory consumption upon burn, and to search for correlations between the degree of shrub consumption to the composition of emitted pyrolysis gases. Data were collected in situ at seven small experimental prescribed burns at Ft. Jackson, an army base in South Carolina, USA. Using airborne laser scanning (ALS) to map overstory tree crowns and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to characterize understory shrub fuel density, both pre- and postburn estimates of sparkleberry coverage were obtained. Sparkleberry clump polygons were manually digitized from a UAV-derived orthoimage of the understory and intersected with the TLS point cloud-derived rasters of pre- and postburn shrub fuel bulk density; these were compared in relation to overstory crown cover as well as to ground truth. Shrub fuel consumption was estimated from the digitized images; sparkleberry clump distributions were generally found to not correlate well to the overstory tree crowns, suggesting it is shade-tolerant. Moreover, no relationship was found between the magnitude of the fuel consumption and the chemical composition of pyrolysis gases, even though mixing ratios of 25 individual gases were measured.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Is a Prescribed Fire Sufficient to Slow the Spread of Woody Plants in an Infrequently Burned Grassland? A Case Study in Tallgrass Prairie

In many mesic grasslands, such as the central Great Plains in North America, frequent fire is a key regulator of ecological processes. Long periods of infrequent fire facilitate the conversion of herbaceous-dominated grassland to woody-dominated shrubland or woodland. At the Konza Prairie Biological Station in northeast Kansas, one infrequently burned portion of the landscape has undergone transformation from grassland to woodland after nearly 30 yr without fire. In Spring 2017, a prescribed burn was implemented to assess fire effectiveness on woody plant mortality. A postfire census of 3 000+ individual woody plants identified the distribution of species by size (height), topographic position, and slope on the landscape. Mortality and canopy fire damage were calculated for each individual. In lowland locations with near-continuous shrub cover (30.7% of the landscape), woody plants were unaffected by fire. However, in upland and slope locations, where shrubs and trees were sparser, survival probability varied by topographic position and species. In these locations 68% of all woody individuals experienced 90% or greater fire damage to the canopy, with 56% of these individuals exhibiting new canopy regrowth within 2 mo after the fire. Here, the two most abundant woody shrubs, Cornus drummondii and Rhus aromatica, showed high survival at all height classes and landscape positions. The two abundant tree species, Gleditsia triacanthos and Juniperus virginiana, showed increased survival probability with tree height that varied by landscape position. Survival of J. virginiana also varied according to proximity and size of neighboring clonal shrubs, providing a mechanism for persistence of this fire-sensitive tree species even at small height classes. The probability survival curves developed here are useful for managers assessing when to prescribe fire to maximize mortality for J. virginiana and provide insight relevant for broader ecological understanding of woody encroachment within grasslands throughout the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine learning to predict final fire size at the time of ignition

Fires in boreal forests of Alaska are changing, threatening human health and ecosystems. Given expected increases in fire activity with climate warming, insight into the controls on fire size from the time of ignition is necessary. Such insight may be increasingly useful for fire management, especially in cases where many ignitions occur in a short time period. Here we investigated the controls and predictability of final fire size at the time of ignition. Using decision trees, we show that ignitions can be classified as leading to small, medium or large fires with 50.4 ± 5.2% accuracy. This was accomplished using two variables: vapour pressure deficit and the fraction of spruce cover near the ignition point. The model predicted that 40% of ignitions would lead to large fires, and those ultimately accounted for 75% of the total burned area. Other machine learning classification algorithms, including random forests and multi-layer perceptrons, were tested but did not outperform the simpler decision tree model. Applying the model to areas with intensive human management resulted in overprediction of large fires, as expected. This type of simple classification system could offer insight into optimal resource allocation, helping to maintain a historical fire regime and protect Alaskan ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The erosion of biodiversity and biomass in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot

Tropical forests are being deforested worldwide, and the remaining fragments are suffering from biomass and biodiversity erosion. Quantifying this erosion is challenging because ground data on tropical biodiversity and biomass are often sparse. Here, we use an unprecedented dataset of 1819 field surveys covering the entire Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We show that 83-85% of the surveys presented losses in forest biomass and tree species richness, functional traits, and conservation value. On average, forest fragments have 25-32% less biomass, 23-31% fewer species, and 33, 36, and 42% fewer individuals of late-successional, large-seeded, and endemic species, respectively. Biodiversity and biomass erosion are lower inside strictly protected conservation units, particularly in large ones. We estimate that biomass erosion across the Atlantic Forest remnants is equivalent to the loss of 55-70 thousand km 2 of forests or US$2.3-2.6 billion in carbon credits. These figures have direct implications on mechanisms of climate change mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Evaluation of Skylab (EREP) data for forest and rangeland surveys

The author has identified the following significant results. Four widely separated sites (near Augusta, Georgia; Lead, South Dakota; Manitou, Colorado; and Redding, California) were selected as typical sites for forest inventory, forest stress, rangeland inventory, and atmospheric and solar measurements, respectively. Results indicated that Skylab S190B color photography is good for classification of Level 1 forest and nonforest land (90 to 95 percent correct) and could be used as a data base for sampling by small and medium scale photography using regression techniques. The accuracy of Level 2 forest and nonforest classes, however, varied from fair to poor. Results of plant community classification tests indicate that both visual and microdensitometric techniques can separate deciduous, conifirous, and grassland classes to the region level in the Ecoclass hierarchical classification system. There was no consistency in classifying tree categories at the series level by visual photointerpretation. The relationship between ground measurements and large scale photo measurements of foliar cover had a correlation coefficient of greater than 0.75. Some of the relationships, however, were site dependent.

Aldrich, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Use of Sun Elevation Angle for Stereogrammetric Boreal Forest Height in Open Canopies

Stereogrammetry applied to globally available high resolution spaceborne imagery (HRSI; less than 5 m spatial resolution) yields fine-scaled digital surface models (DSMs) of elevation. These DSMs may represent elevations that range from the ground to the vegetation canopy surface, are produced from stereoscopic image pairs (stereo pairs) that have a variety of acquisition characteristics, and have been coupled with lidar data of forest structure and ground surface elevation to examine forest height. This work explores surface elevations from HRSI DSMs derived from two types of acquisitions in open canopy forests. We (1) apply an automated mass-production stereogrammetry workflow to along-track HRSI stereo pairs, (2) identify multiple spatially coincident DSMs whose stereo pairs were acquired under different solar geometry, (3) vertically co-register these DSMs using coincident spaceborne lidar footprints (from ICESat-GLAS) as reference, and(4) examine differences in surface elevations between the reference lidar and the co-registered HRSI DSMs associated with two general types of acquisitions (DSM types) from different sun elevation angles. We find that these DSM types, distinguished by sun elevation angle at the time of stereo pair acquisition, are associated with different surface elevations estimated from automated stereogrammetry in open canopy forests. For DSM values with corresponding reference ground surface elevation from spaceborne lidar footprints in open canopy northern Siberian Larix forests with slopes less than10, our results show that HRSI DSM acquired with sun elevation angles greater than 35deg and less than 25deg (during snow-free conditions) produced characteristic and consistently distinct distributions of elevation differences from reference lidar. The former include DSMs of near-ground surfaces with root mean square errors less than 0.68 m relative to lidar. The latter, particularly those with angles less than 10deg, show distributions with larger differences from lidar that are associated with open canopy forests whose vegetation surface elevations are captured. Terrain aspect did not have a strong effect on the distribution of vegetation surfaces. Using the two DSM types together, the distribution of DSM-differenced heights in forests (6.0 m, sigma = 1.4 m) was consistent with the distribution of plot-level mean tree heights (6.5m, sigma = 1.2 m). We conclude that the variation in sun elevation angle at time of stereo pair acquisition can create illumination conditions conducive for capturing elevations of surfaces either near the ground or associated with vegetation canopy. Knowledge of HRSI acquisition solar geometry and snow cover can be used to understand and combine stereogrammetric surface elevation estimates to co-register rand difference overlapping DSMs, providing a means to map forest height at fine scales, resolving the vertical structure of groups of trees from spaceborne platforms in open canopy forests.

Paul M Montesano↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature, Humidity, and Time-Lapse Video Data from Yosemite National Park, Water Year 2024

This dataset contains time-lapse imagery and distributed measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, dew point, and soil temperature across Yosemite National Park from October 2023 to September 2024. Instruments were deployed at 10 sites in two cross-valley transects as part of the DOE Grant: Seasonal Cycles Unravel Mysteries of Missing Mountain Water organized by Jessica Lundquist (University of Washington), Rosemary Carroll (Desert Research Institute), and Ethan Gutmann (National Center for Atmospheric Research). The data are intended to support hydrologic modeling efforts to better resolve the fate of mountain water, and are published to support studies of surface climate or hydrologic processes in complex terrain. Measurements were collected with low-cost data loggers installed 2 m high on evergreen trees or buried just below the soil surface. A time-lapse camera at one site captures valley-scale seasonal snow cover variability.Dataset files are organized by site and variable (air measurements, ground measurements, or time-lapse video). Air and ground measurements are packaged in LoggerData.zip, and time-lapse imagery is compiled into a short video stored in TimelapseVideos.zip. File-level metadata contains details for each file included in the dataset. A data dictionary provides units and descriptions for column or row names in all files. The locations metadata file describes site characteristics, locations, and associated GPS methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Error analysis of leaf area estimates made from allometric regression models

Biological net productivity, measured in terms of the change in biomass with time, affects global productivity and the quality of life through biochemical and hydrological cycles and by its effect on the overall energy balance. Estimating leaf area for large ecosystems is one of the more important means of monitoring this productivity. For a particular forest plot, the leaf area is often estimated by a two-stage process. In the first stage, known as dimension analysis, a small number of trees are felled so that their areas can be measured as accurately as possible. These leaf areas are then related to non-destructive, easily-measured features such as bole diameter and tree height, by using a regression model. In the second stage, the non-destructive features are measured for all or for a sample of trees in the plots and then used as input into the regression model to estimate the total leaf area. Because both stages of the estimation process are subject to error, it is difficult to evaluate the accuracy of the final plot leaf area estimates. This paper illustrates how a complete error analysis can be made, using an example from a study made on aspen trees in northern Minnesota. The study was a joint effort by NASA and the University of California at Santa Barbara known as COVER (Characterization of Vegetation with Remote Sensing).

Feiveson, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Development of a Software Safety Process and a Case Study of Its Use

Research in the year covered by this reporting period has been primarily directed toward the following areas: (1) Formal specification of user interfaces; (2) Fault-tree analysis including software; (3) Evaluation of formal specification notations; (4) Evaluation of formal verification techniques; (5) Expanded analysis of the shell architecture concept; (6) Development of techniques to address the problem of information survivability; and (7) Development of a sophisticated tool for the manipulation of formal specifications written in Z. This report summarizes activities under the grant. The technical results relating to this grant and the remainder of the principal investigator's research program are contained in various reports and papers. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In the next section, an overview of the project is given. This is followed by a summary of accomplishments during the reporting period and details of students funded. Seminars presented describing work under this grant are listed in the following section, and the final section lists publications resulting from this grant.

Knight, J. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Grand Valley Ecological Forecasting II: Forecasting Trends in Pinyon-Juniper and Sagebrush Habitat Relative to Wildfire, Drought, Beetle Disturbance, and Treatment Impact for Management Planning

Disturbances and landcover change in pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems are exacerbated by environmental conditions such as variability in climate characteristics. Our DEVELOP team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS) in Colorado National Monument and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in McInnis Canyons and Dominguez-Escalante National Conservation Areas to investigate disturbances to land cover. NPS partners were interested in identifying areas at risk of pinyon-juniper die-off or encroachment by invasive species. The BLM partners prioritized identifying areas suitable for fire reduction and prevention treatment. To address these concerns, we forecasted landcover change in the Grand Valley region of Colorado using NASA Earth observation data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua. We collected and analyzed these data in conjunction with Term I of this project. We found that the primary drivers of forecasted landcover change in the study area were aspect and elevation. Our forecasted land cover maps, created using the Idrisi TerrSet Land Change Modeler, indicated that by 2040, ecosystems within partner management areas will likely see tree encroachment on shrublands. These maps addressed the needs of our partners by showing potential habitat suitability trends, which will inform management planning.

Bill Curtiss↗
DOE OSTI2016

PHOTOMETRIC SUPERNOVA CLASSIFICATION WITH MACHINE LEARNING

Automated photometric supernova classification has become an active area of research in recent years in light of current and upcoming imaging surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, given that spectroscopic confirmation of type for all supernovae discovered will be impossible. Here, we develop a multi-faceted classification pipeline, combining existing and new approaches. Our pipeline consists of two stages: extracting descriptive features from the light curves and classification using a machine learning algorithm. Our feature extraction methods vary from model-dependent techniques, namely SALT2 fits, to more independent techniques that fit parametric models to curves, to a completely model-independent wavelet approach. We cover a range of representative machine learning algorithms, including naive Bayes, k -nearest neighbors, support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and boosted decision trees (BDTs). We test the pipeline on simulated multi-band DES light curves from the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge. Using the commonly used area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic as a metric, we find that the SALT2 fits and the wavelet approach, with the BDTs algorithm, each achieve an AUC of 0.98, where 1 represents perfect classification. We find that a representative training set is essential for good classification, whatever the feature set or algorithm, with implications for spectroscopic follow-up. Importantly, we find that by using either the SALT2 or the wavelet feature sets with a BDT algorithm, accurate classification is possible purely from light curve data, without the need for any redshift information.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1995

Mapping Fire Scars in the Brazilian Cerrado Using AVHRR Imagery

The Brazilian cerrado, or savanna, spans an area of 1,800,000 square kilometers on the great plateau of Central Brazil. Large fires covering hundreds of square kilometers, frequently occur in wildland areas of the cerrado, dominated by grasslands or grasslands mixed with shrubs and small trees, and also within area in the cerrado used for agricultural purposes, particularly for grazing. Smaller fires, typically extending over arm of a few square kilometers or less, are associated with the clewing of crops, such as dry land rice. A method for mapping fire scars and differentiating them from extensive areas of bare sod with AVHRR bands 1 (.55 -.68 micrometer) and 3 (3.5 - 3.9 micrometers) and measures of performance based on comparison with maps of fires with Landsat imagery will be presented. Methods of estimating total area burned from the AVHRR fire scar map will be discussed and related to land use and scar size.

Hlavka, C. A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data from: Comparative water use by maize, perennial crops, restored prairie, and poplar trees in the US Midwest

Water use by plant communities across years of varying water availability indicates how terrestrial water balances will respond to climate change and variability as well as to land cover change. Perennial biofuel crops, likely grown mainly on marginal lands of limited water availability, provide an example of a potentially extensive future land cover conversion. We measured growing-season evapotranspiration (ET) based on daily changes in soil profile water contents in five perennial systems—switchgrass, miscanthus, native grasses, restored prairie, and hybrid poplar—and in annual maize (corn) in a temperate humid climate (Michigan, USA). Three study years (2010, 2011 and 2013) had normal growing-season rainfall (480–610 mm) whereas 2012 was a drought year (210 mm). Over all four years, mean (±SEM) growing-season ET for perennial systems did not greatly differ from corn (496 ± 21 mm), averaging 559 (±14), 458 (±31), 573 (±37), 519 (±30), and 492 (±58) mm for switchgrass, miscanthus, native grasses, prairie, and poplar, respectively. Differences in biomass production largely determined variation in water use efficiency (WUE). Miscanthus had the highest WUE in both normal and drought years (52–67 and 43 kg dry biomass ha−1 mm−1, respectively), followed by maize (40–59 and 29 kg ha−1 mm−1); the native grasses and prairie were lower and poplar was intermediate. That measured water use by perennial systems was similar to maize across normal and drought years contrasts with earlier modeling studies and suggests that rain-fed perennial biomass crops in this climate have little impact on landscape water balances, whether replacing rain-fed maize on arable lands or successional vegetation on marginal lands. Results also suggest that crop ET rates, and thus groundwater recharge, streamflow, and lake levels, may be less sensitive to climate change than has been assumed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Applications of artificial intelligence to mission planning

The following subject areas are covered: object-oriented programming task; rule-based programming task; algorithms for resource allocation; connecting a Symbolics to a VAX; FORTRAN from Lisp; trees and forest task; software data structure conversion; software functionality modifications and enhancements; portability of resource allocation to a TI MicroExplorer; frontier of feasibility software system; and conclusions.

Ford, Donnie R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Using minimal spanning trees to compare the reliability of network topologies

Graph theoretic methods are applied to compute the reliability for several types of networks of moderate size. The graph theory methods used are minimal spanning trees for networks with bi-directional links and the related concept of strongly connected directed graphs for networks with uni-directional links. A comparison is conducted of ring networks and braided networks. The case is covered where just the links fail and the case where both links and nodes fail. Two different failure modes for the links are considered. For one failure mode, the link no longer carries messages. For the other failure mode, the link delivers incorrect messages. There is a description and comparison of link-redundancy versus path-redundancy as methods to achieve reliability. All the computations are carried out by means of a fault tree program.

Leister, Karen J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗