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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1992

Recognition and characterization of hierarchical interstellar structure. II - Structure tree statistics

A new method of image analysis is described, in which images partitioned into 'clouds' are represented by simplified skeleton images, called structure trees, that preserve the spatial relations of the component clouds while disregarding information concerning their sizes and shapes. The method can be used to discriminate between images of projected hierarchical (multiply nested) and random three-dimensional simulated collections of clouds constructed on the basis of observed interstellar properties, and even intermediate systems formed by combining random and hierarchical simulations. For a given structure type, the method can distinguish between different subclasses of models with different parameters and reliably estimate their hierarchical parameters: average number of children per parent, scale reduction factor per level of hierarchy, density contrast, and number of resolved levels. An application to a column density image of the Taurus complex constructed from IRAS data is given. Moderately strong evidence for a hierarchical structural component is found, and parameters of the hierarchy, as well as the average volume filling factor and mass efficiency of fragmentation per level of hierarchy, are estimated. The existence of nested structure contradicts models in which large molecular clouds are supposed to fragment, in a single stage, into roughly stellar-mass cores.

Houlahan, Padraig↗
DOE OSTI2022

Leaf mass area, Feb2016-May2016, PA-SLZ, PA-PNM, PA-BCI: Panama

This data package contains leaf mass data per unit area measured on a monthly basis from February to April, 2016, at the Bosque Protector San Lorenzo (PA-SLZ) and Parque Natural Metropolitano (PA-PNM) sites in Panama. Data from the Barro Colorado Island (PA-BCI) site are only available for March. This data was collected as part of the 2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) campaign. Included in this data package are an Excel file with data (2016ENSO_Panama_LMA1) and two Excel files with associated metadata. Also included is a Word document (Metadata_description_2016_ENSO_Panama) with details such as data collection methods, equipment used, and site information. See related datasets for further sample details, leaf water potential, leaf spectra, gas exchange and leaf chemistry. VERSION 2 update. The identification of a species from the PNM site has been corrected as follows: the identification of the tree initially identified as Pseudosamanea guachapele (ALBIED) has been revised to Albizia adinocephala (ALBIAD). The updated data package includes revised data, metadata and protocol documents updated to reflect this change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prioritizing Countries by Concern Regarding Access to Weapons of Mass Destruction Materials

This article presents a global prioritization methodology that evaluates the relative risks of non-state actor acquisition of materials that could be used in chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high explosive Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) from the country’s relevant infrastructure. Prioritization is based on three domains: 1. Assessing relative scale of materials in each country, 2. The country’s corresponding security posture, and 3. The presence of threat actors. The output is a list of countries prioritized from greatest risk to least. Rather than providing an overall 1 to N ranking, however, the results are placed into tiers based upon their natural groupings within the three domains. The countries in the highest tiers are flagged as potential US national security concern; those scoring in the middle and at the bottom are flagged as posing lower US national security concern. A systematic approach assesses each country by leveraging many disciplines, such as risk and decision analysis, as well as expert judgement. A quantitative value model based on Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) organizes the objectives scoring criteria into a value tree using lessons learned from previous studies, published literature, and expert judgement. The article presents the prioritization categories and corresponding value model scoring criteria to include measurement type, weight, range, and value preference. Country names and data are notional in order to share the details on the underlying methodology and model without identification of actual security risks. A deliberative process addresses factors external to the model and scrutinizes inputs, methodology, model, and results.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Leaf gas exchange and fitted parameters, two sites in Panama, 2022

Photosynthetic CO2 response curves (ACi curves), light response curves (AQ curves), dark adapted dark respiration, conductance curves, and survey measurements for leaves measured in the Parque Natural Metropolitano (PNM) and Gamboa, Panama, from January to April 2022 are presented. Measurements were made on leaves from 46 different tree, shrub and liana species, from sunlit canopy and understory locations. Leaf area index from 8 vertical profiles at PNM are also included. The aim of this measurement campaign was three-fold: (i) to improve our understanding of the vertical variation in leaf-level water use efficiency; (ii) to develop an understanding of the sensitivity of stomata to changes in environmental conditions, especially light, humidity, and temperature; (iii) to improve models which can predict leaf traits from leaf contact spectral measurements. All the gas exchange data and metadata are presented in .csv files and complete instrument output are included in .zip folders. Data and metadata meet the ESS-DIVE leaf-level gas exchange reporting format requirements. The protocol details are provided as pdf documents. In addition to gas exchange data reported here these samples were also used for measurement of leaf optical properties, carbon and nitrogen content, and leaf mass per unit leaf area (LMA). These data can be cross linked using the unique sample ID and are provided in separate data packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medical Resource Set Bulky Item Trade Space Analysis for Spaceflight Medical Risk

The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault-tree probabilistic techniques to classify risks in the space environment by taking advantage of the inherent knowledge of complex spaceflight system design and testing to quantify failure risk. In harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of ‘How do we balance health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on long duration space missions?’ remains a deeply challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is one aspect of the efforts by NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess the impact of health and performance risk. One of MEDPRAT’s key features is its high degree of computational efficiency. Coupled with the HRP High Performance Compute cluster located at NASA’s Glenn Research Center, MEDPRAT runs millions of simulated missions in a matter of minutes. This degree of computational efficiency provides the novel opportunity to explore the relationship between medical set mass, volume, and medical resource size. Of particular interest for future human spaceflight missions are ‘bulky’ items, medical resources like devices, which occupy a large portion of the small, allocated mass and volume for the medical set leaving less room for other resources. This talk will present results showing the quantitative impact of forced inclusion of several bulky items across a variety of medical kit constraints, and the effect that a potential research investment into reducing the bulky item mass and volume may have on risk.

Lauren Mcintyre↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elemental profiling and genomewide association studies reveal genomic variants modulating ionomic composition in Populus trichocarpa leaves

Samples were collected from a population of 1,089 black cottonwood genotypes (P. trichocarpa) assembled from native stands to encompass the central portion of the natural range of the species, stretching from 38.8° to 54.3° N Q13 latitude from California, USA, to British Columbia, Canada. Establishment of the common garden, growth conditions, and site maintenance have been described by Muchero et al (2015). In this study, leaf samples for ionomic profiling were collected from 4-year-old trees, during the growing season, in July 2012, from a field located in Clatskanie, Oregon, USA (46°6′11″N 123°12′13″W). The field site was located in a protected alluvial floodplain containing a uniform Wauna-Locoda silt loam soil area characterized by an acidic pH, in Columbia County, Oregon. A subset of 584 out of the 1,089 P. trichocarpa genotypes were represented in this sampling. These genotypes were randomly selected to represent the geographical distribution of the population. A single fully mature (LPI 7-9) leaf on the south side of the tree exposed to full sunlight conditions was removed from the tree within a 6-hour window centering on solar noon and immediately frozen under dry ice before processing. Leaf samples of 584 P. trichocarpa genotypes were finely ground to 40 mm particle size using a mortar and pestle, and ionomic composition was analyzed using ICP-MS. In total, 20 elements were profiled, including aluminum (Al27), arsenic (As75), boron (B11), cadmium (Cd111), calcium (Ca43), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), iron (Fe57), magnesium (Mg25), manganese (Mn55), molybdenum (Mo), nickel (Ni60), phosphorus (P31), potassium (K39), rubidium (Rb85), selenium (Se82), sodium (Na23), strontium (Sr88), sulfur (S34), and zinc (Zn66), following a protocol established by Ziegler et al. (2013). For each sample, 75mg of powder was digested overnight in 2.5 mL HNO3 containing 20 parts per billion (ppb) indium as an internal standard, following the protocol described in Ziegler et al. (2013). Following a dilution, concentration of the 20 elements was measured using an Elan 6000 DRC-e mass spectrometer (Perkin-Elmer SCIEX) connected to a PFA microflow nebulizer (Elemental Scientific) and Apex HF desolvator (Elemental Scientific). One measurement per sample per genotype was done. For subsequent analyses, the quantifications were converted to total element concentration.

CBI ionomics, GWAS, plasma-mass spectrometry, neut↗
DOE OSTI2021

A natural mechanism for approximate Higgs alignment in the 2HDM

The 2HDM possesses a neutral scalar interaction eigenstate whose tree-level properties coincide with the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson. In light of the LHC Higgs data which suggests that the observed Higgs boson is SM-like, it follows that the mixing of the SM Higgs interaction eigenstate with the other neutral scalar interaction eigenstates of the 2HDM should be suppressed, corresponding to the so-called Higgs alignment limit. The exact Higgs alignment limit can arise naturally due to a global symmetry of the scalar potential. If this symmetry is softly broken, then the Higgs alignment limit becomes approximate (although still potentially consistent with the current LHC Higgs data). In this paper, we obtain the approximate Higgs alignment suggested by the LHC Higgs data as a consequence of a softly broken global symmetry of the Higgs Lagrangian. However, this can only be accomplished if the Yukawa sector of the theory is extended. We propose an extended 2HDM with vector-like top quark partners, where explicit mass terms in the top sector provide the source of the soft symmetry breaking of a generalized CP symmetry. In this way, we can realize approximate Higgs alignment without a significant fine-tuning of the model parameters. We then explore the implications of the current LHC bounds on vector-like top quark partners for the success of our proposed scenario.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of Cell Wall Polysaccharides in Water Distribution During Seed Imbibition of Hymenaea courbaril L.

Seed water imbibition is critical to seedling establishment in tropical forests. The seeds of the neotropical tree Hymenaea courbaril have no oil reserves and have been used as a model to study storage cell wall polysaccharide (xyloglucan - XyG) mobilization.We studied pathways of water imbibition in Hymenaea seeds. To understand seed features, we performed carbohydrate analysis and scanning electron microscopy. We found that the seed coat comprises a palisade of lignified cells, below which are several cell layers with cell walls rich in pectin. The cotyledons are composed mainly of storage XyG. From a single point of scarification on the seed surface, we followed water imbibition pathways in the entire seed using fluorescent dye and NMRi spectroscopy. We constructed composites of cellulose with Hymenaea pectin or XyG. In vitro experiments demonstrated cell wall polymer capacity to imbibe water, with XyG imbibition much slower than the pectin-rich layer of the seed coat.We found that water rapidly crosses the lignified layer and reaches the pectin-rich palisade layer so that water rapidly surrounds the whole seed. Water travels very slowly in cotyledons (most of the seed mass) because it is imbibed in the XyG-rich storage walls. However, there are channels among the cotyledon cells through which water travels rapidly, so the primary cell walls containing pectins will retain water around each storage cell.The different seed tissue dynamic interactions between water and wall polysaccharides (pectins and XyG) are essential to determining water distribution and preparing the seed for germination.

arabinoxylan↗
NASA NTRS2012

Mirror Metrology Using Nano-Probe Supports

Thin, lightweight mirrors are needed for future x-ray space telescopes in order to increase x-ray collecting area while maintaining a reduced mass and volume capable of being launched on existing rockets. However, it is very difficult to determine the undistorted shape of such thin mirrors because the mounting of the mirror during measurement causes distortion. Traditional kinematic mounts have insufficient supports to control the distortion to measurable levels and prevent the mirror from vibrating during measurement. Over-constrained mounts (non-kinematic) result in an unknown force state causing mirror distortion that cannot be determined or analytically removed. In order to measure flexible mirrors, it is necessary to over-constrain the mirror. Over-constraint causes unknown distortions to be applied to the mirror. Even if a kinematic constraint system can be used, necessary imperfections in the kinematic assumption can lead to an unknown force state capable of distorting the mirror. Previously, thicker, stiffer, and heavier mirrors were used to achieve low optical figure distortion. These mirrors could be measured to an acceptable level of precision using traditional kinematic mounts. As lighter weight precision optics have developed, systems such as the whiffle tree or hydraulic supports have been used to provide additional mounting supports while maintaining the kinematic assumption. The purpose of this invention is to over-constrain a mirror for optical measurement without causing unacceptable or unknown distortions. The invention uses force gauges capable of measuring 1/10,000 of a Newton attached to nano-actuators to support a thin x-ray optic with known and controlled forces to allow for figure measurement and knowledge of the undeformed mirror figure. The mirror is hung from strings such that it is minimally distorted and in a known force state. However, the hanging mirror cannot be measured because it is both swinging and vibrating. In order to stabilize the mirror for measurement, nano-probes support the mirror, causing the mirror to be over-constrained.

Robinson, David↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Rise of the Andes and Amazon Landscape Evolution on Diversification of Lowland terra-firme Forest Birds

Since the 19th Century, the unmatched biological diversity of Amazonia has stimulated a diverse set of hypotheses accounting for patterns of species diversity and distribution in mega-diverse tropical environments. Unfortunately, the evidence supporting particular hypotheses to date is at best described as ambiguous, and no generalizations have emerged yet, mostly due to the lack of comprehensive comparative phylogeographic studies with thorough trans-Amazonian sampling of lineages. Here we report on spatial and temporal patterns of diversification estimated from mitochondrial gene trees for 31 lineages of birds associated with upland terra-firme forest, the dominant habitat in modern lowland Amazonia. The results confirm the pervasive role of Amazonian rivers as primary barriers separating sister lineages of birds, and a protracted spatio-temporal pattern of diversification, with a gradual reduction of earlier (1st and 2nd) and older (> 2 mya) splits associated with each lineage in an eastward direction. (The easternmost tributaries of the Amazon, the Xingu and Tocantins Rivers, are not associated with any splits older than > 2 mya). For the suboscine passerines, maximum-likelihood estimates of rates of diversification point to an overall constant rate over the past 5 my (up to a significant downturn at 300,000 y ago). This "younging-eastward" pattern may have an abiotic explanation related to landscape evolution. Triggered by a new pulse of Andean uplift, it has been proposed that modern Amazon basin landscapes may have evolved successively eastward, away from the mountain chain, starting approximately 10 mya. This process was likely based on the deposition of vast fluvial sediment masses, known as megafans, that may have extended progressively and in series eastward from Andean sources. This process plausibly explains the progressive extinction of original Pebas wetland of western-central Amazonia by the present fluvial landsurfaces of a more terra-firme type. The youngest landsurfaces thus lie furthest from the mountains. In this scenario major drainages were also reoriented in wholesale fashion away from a northerly orientation generally towards the east and an Atlantic Ocean outlet. The advance of megafans is best seen by the location of axial rivers such as the Orinoco and Mamore which lie against the cratonic margins furthest from the Andes, at the distal ends of major megafan ramparts. More importantly, other major river courses in western-central Amazonia will have been established at progressively younger dates with distance eastward. If this landscape-sequence scenario is accurate, it parallels the progressive younging of the passerine lineages. The bird DNA data appears to confirm strongly the pervasive role of Amazonian rivers--as primary barriers separating sister lineages of birds, and thus probably as facilitaters of bird speciation. We show for the first time that a general spatio-temporal pattern of diversification for terra-firme lineages in the Amazon is associated with rivers ("younging-eastward"), and furthermore parallels a specific scenario of regional drainage evolution.

Aleixo, Alexandre↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Circular Velocity Curve of the Milky Way from 5–25 kpc Using Luminous Red Giant Branch Stars

We present a sample of 254,882 luminous red giant branch (LRGB) stars selected from the APOGEE and LAMOST surveys. By combining photometric and astrometric information from the Two Micron All Sky Survey and Gaia survey, the precise distances of the sample stars are determined by a supervised machine-learning algorithm: the gradient-boosted decision trees. To test the accuracy of the derived distances, member stars of globular clusters (GCs) and open clusters are used. The tests by cluster member stars show a precision of about 10% with negligible zero-point offsets, for the derived distances of our sample stars. The final sample covers a large volume of the Galactic disk(s) and halo of 0 < R < 30 kpc and |Z| ≤ 15 kpc. The rotation curve (RC) of the Milky Way across the radius of 5 ≲ R ≲ 25 kpc has been accurately measured with ~54,000 stars of the thin disk population selected from the LRGB sample. The derived RC shows a weak decline along R with a gradient of -1.83 ± 0.02 (stat.) ± 0.07 (sys.) km s -1 kpc -1 , in excellent agreement with the results measured by previous studies. The circular velocity at the solar position, yielded by our RC is 234.04 ± 0.08 (stat.) ± 1.36 (sys.) km s -1 , again in great consistency with other independent determinations. From the newly constructed RC, as well as constraints from other data, we have constructed a mass model for our Galaxy, yielding a mass of the dark matter halo of M 200 = (8.05 ± 1.15) × 10 11 M ⊙ with a corresponding radius of R 200 = 192.37 ± 9.24 kpc and a local dark matter density of 0.39 ± 0.03 GeV cm -3 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of feruloyl-CoA 6'-hydroxylase 1 overexpression on lignin and cell wall characteristics in transgenic hybrid aspen

In plant cell walls, lignin, cellulose, and the hemicelluloses form intricate three-dimensional structures. Owing to its complexity, lignin often acts as a bottleneck for the efficient utilization of polysaccharide components as biochemicals and functional materials. A promising approach to mitigate and/or overcome lignin recalcitrance is the qualitative and quantitative modification of lignin by genetic engineering. Feruloyl-CoA 6'-hydroxylase (F6'H1) is a 2-oxoglutarate-dependent dioxygenase that catalyzes the conversion of feruloyl-CoA, one of the intermediates of the lignin biosynthetic pathway, into 6'-hydroxyferuloyl-CoA, the precursor of scopoletin (7-hydroxy-6-methoxycoumarin). In a previous study with Arabidopsis thaliana, we demonstrated that overexpression of F6'H1 under a xylem-preferential promoter led to scopoletin incorporation into the cell wall. This altered the chemical structure of lignin without affecting lignin content or saccharification efficiency. In the present study, the same F6'H1 construct was introduced into hybrid aspen (Populus tremula × tremuloides T89), a model woody plant, and its effects on plant morphology, lignin chemical structure, global gene expression, and phenolic metabolism were examined. The transgenic plants successfully overproduced scopoletin while exhibiting severe growth retardation, a phenotype not previously observed in Arabidopsis. Scopoletin accumulation was most pronounced in the secondary walls of tracheary elements and the compound middle lamella, with low levels in the fiber cell walls. Overexpression of F6'H1 also affected the metabolism of aromatics, including lignin precursors. Heteronuclear single-quantum coherence (HSQC) NMR spectroscopy revealed that scopoletin in cell walls was bound to lignin, leading to a reduction in lignin content and changes in its monomeric composition and molar mass distribution. Furthermore, the enzymatic saccharification efficiency of the transgenic cell walls was more than three times higher than that of the wild-type plants, even without pretreatment. Although addressing growth inhibition remains a priority, incorporating scopoletin into lignin demonstrates significant potential for improving woody biomass utilization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tree hydrodynamic modelling of the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum using FETCH3

Modelling the water transport along the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum is fundamental to estimating and predicting transpiration fluxes. A Finite-difference Ecosystem-scale Tree Crown Hydrodynamics model (FETCH3) for the water fluxes across the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum is presented here. The model combines the water transport pathways into one vertical dimension, and assumes that the water flow through the soil, roots, and above-ground xylem can be approximated as flow in porous media. This results in a system of three partial differential equations, resembling the Richardson–Richards equation, describing the transport of water through the plant system and with additional terms representing sinks and sources for the transfer of water from the soil to the roots and from the leaves to the atmosphere. The numerical scheme, developed in Python 3, was tested against exact analytical solutions for steady state and transient conditions using simplified but realistic model parameterizations. The model was also used to simulate a previously published case study, where observed transpiration rates were available, to evaluate model performance. With the same model setup as the published case study, FETCH3 results were in agreement with observations. Through a rigorous coupling of soil, root xylem, and stem xylem, FETCH3 can account for variable water capacitance, while conserving mass and the continuity of the water potential between these three layers. FETCH3 provides a ready-to-use open access numerical model for the simulation of water fluxes across the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tree-based solvers for adaptive mesh refinement code FLASH – III: a novel scheme for radiation pressure on dust and gas and radiative transfer from diffuse sources

Radiation is an important contributor to the energetics of the interstellar medium, yet its transport is difficult to solve numerically. We present a novel approach towards solving radiative transfer of diffuse sources via backwards ray tracing. Here, we focus on the radiative transfer of infrared radiation and the radiation pressure on dust. The new module, TREERAY/RADPRESSURE, is an extension to the novel radiative transfer method TREERAY implemented in the grid-based Magneto-Hydrodynamics code FLASH. In TREERAY/RADPRESSURE, every cell and every star particle is a source of infrared radiation. We also describe how gas, dust, and radiation are coupled via a chemical network. This allows us to compute the local dust temperature in thermal equilibrium, leading to a significantly improvement over the classical grey approximation. In several tests, we demonstrate that the scheme produces the correct radiative intensities as well as the correct momentum input by radiation pressure. Subsequently, we apply our new scheme to model massive star formation from a collapsing, turbulent core of 150 M ⊙ . We include the effects of both, ionizing and infrared radiation on the dynamics of the core. We find that the newborn massive star prevents fragmentation in its proximity due to radiative heating. Over time, dust and radiation temperature equalize, while the gas temperature can be either warmer due to shock heating or colder due to insufficient dust–gas coupling. Compared to gravity, the effects of radiation pressure are insignificant for the stellar mass on the simulated time-scale in this work.

(ISM:) HII regions↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1991

Historical evidence for a connection between volcanic eruptions and climate change

The times of historical volcanic aerosol clouds were compared with changes in atmospheric temperatures on regional, hemispheric, and global scales. These involve either a direct comparison of individual significant eruption years with temperature records, or a comparison of eruption years with composited temperature records for several years before and after chosen sets of eruptions. Some studies have challenged the connection between individual eruptions and climate change. Mass and Portman (1989) recently suggested that the volcanic signal was present, but smaller than previously thought. In a study designed to test the idea that eruptions could cause small changes in climate, Hansen and other (1978) chose one of the best monitored eruptions at the time, the 1963 eruption of Agung volcano on the island of Bali. Using a simple radiation-balance model, in which an aerosol cloud in the tropics was simulated, this basic pattern of temperature change in the tropics and subtropics was reproduced. There may be natural limits to the atmospheric effects of any volcanic eruption. Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in eruption clouds were proposed. Model results suggest that aerosol microphysical processes of condensation and coagulation produce larger aerosols as the SO2 injection rate is increased. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on regional temperatures where the effects of volcanic aerosol clouds can be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns, especially changes in mid-latitudes where meridional circulation patterns may develop. Such climatic perturbations can be detected in proxy evidence such as decreases in tree-ring widths and frost damage rings in climatically sensitive parts of the world, changes in treelines, weather anomalies such as unusually cold summers, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures.

Rampino, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Kepler Mission: A Search for Terrestrial Planets - Development Status

We have embarked on a mission to detect terrestrial planets. The space mission has been optimized to search for earth-size planets (0.5 to 10 earth masses) in the habitable zone (HZ) of solar-like stars. Given this design, the mission will necessarily be capable of not only detecting Earth analogs, but a wide range of planetary types and characteristics ranging from Mercury-size objects with orbital periods of days to gas-giants in decade long orbits that have undeniable signatures even with only one transit detected. The mission is designed to survey the full range of spectral-type dwarf stars. The approach is to detect the periodic signal of transiting planets. Three or more transits of a star exceeding a combined threshold of eight sigma with a statistically consistent period, brightness change and duration provide a rigorous method of detection. From the relative brightness change the planet size can be calculated. From the period the orbital size can be calculated and its location relative to the HZ determined. Presented here are: the mission goals, the top level system design requirements derived from these goals that drive the flight system design, a number of the trades that have lead to the mission concept, expected photometric performance dependence on stellar brightness and spectral type based on the system 'noise tree' analysis. Updated estimates are presented of the numbers of detectable planets versus size, orbit, stellar spectral type and distances based on a planet frequency hypothesis. The current project schedule and organization are given.

Koch, David↗