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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Global simulations of monoterpene-derived peroxy radical fates and the distributions of highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) and accretion products

Abstract. We evaluate monoterpene-derived peroxy radical (MT-RO2) unimolecular autoxidation and self- and cross-reactions with other RO2 species in the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. The formation of associated highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) and accretion products are tracked in competition with other bimolecular reactions. Autoxidation is the dominant fate up to 6–8 km for first-generation MT-RO2, which can undergo unimolecular H shifts. Reaction with NO can be a more common fate for H-shift rate constants < 0.1 s−1 or at altitudes higher than 8 km due to the imposed Arrhenius temperature dependence of unimolecular H shifts. For MT-derived HOM-RO2, generated by multistep autoxidation of first-generation MT-RO2, reaction with other RO2 species is predicted to be the major fate throughout most of the boreal and tropical forest regions, whereas reaction with NO dominates in the temperate and subtropical forests of the Northern Hemisphere. The newly added reactions result in an approximate 4 % global average decrease in HO2 and RO2, mainly due to faster self-/cross-reactions of MT-RO2, but the impact upon HO2, OH, and NOx abundances is only important in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) over portions of tropical forests. Predicted HOM concentrations in MT-rich regions and seasons can exceed total organic aerosol predicted by the standard version of the GEOS-Chem model depending on the parameters used. Comparisons to observations reveal that large uncertainties remain for key reaction parameters and processes, especially with respect to the photochemical lifetime and volatility of HOMs as well as the rates and branching of associated RO2 accretion products. Further observations and laboratory studies related to MT-RO2-derived HOMs and gas-phase RO2 accretion product formation kinetics – especially their atmospheric fate, such as gas–particle partitioning, multiphase chemistry, and net secondary organic aerosol formation – are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional and Seasonal Trends in Tropical Ozone from SHADOZ Profiles: Reference for Models and Satellite Products

Understanding lowermost stratosphere (LMS) ozone variability is an important topic in the trends and climate assessment communities because of feedbacks among changing temperature, dynamics, water vapor and ozone. LMS evaluations are usually based on satellite observations. Free tropospheric (FT) ozone assessments typically rely on profiles from commercial aircraft. Ozonesonde measurements constitute an independent dataset encompassing both LMS and FT. We used Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) data from 1998-2019 in the GSFC Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model to analyze monthly mean FT and LMS ozone across five well-distributed tropical sites, three based on combination of nearby individual stations (Figure 1). Our findings: (1) both FT (defined as 5-15 km) and LMS (15-20 km) ozone trends exhibit marked regional and seasonal variability. (2) Stations with the largest FT ozone increases, in the equatorial Americas and western Pacific/east Indian Ocean, show these trends most strongly in February-May when there is convectively-driven wave activity. (3) LMS ozone losses are greatest in the 2nd half of the year (solid lines in Figure 2) when the losses are correlated with an increase in tropopause height (TH) as derived from SHADOZ radiosonde data. ( 4) When the upper FT and LMS are defined by tropopause-relative coordinates, the LMS ozone trend calculated by MLR becomes insignificant, as shown in the dashed lines in Figure 2. Thus, the 20-year decline in tropical LMS ozone reported in recent satellite- and model-based studies does not point to a chemical loss but is rather a signature of a tropopause that has been perturbed by a changing climate. Output based on our regional and monthly averaged FT and LMS ozone trends will be available as a reference for satellite- and model-based analyses.

Free Tropospheric (FT) ozone assessments↗
NASA NTRS1999

Doppler RAdar Observations of Convection from the NASA/TOGA C-band Radar During TRMM-LBA in Rondonia, Brazil

The Tropcial RAinfall Measuring Mission-Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere experiment in Amazonia (TRMM-LBA) was conducted near Ji Parana, Rondonia, Brazil during the 1999 Amazonian wet season (Jan-Feb). TRMM-LBA provided detailed observations of precipitating systems from surface and aircraft instrumentation which may be compared to measurements from the TRMM satellite. The surface-based platforms included two scanning Doppler radars (the NASA TOGA C-band radar and the NCAR SPOL S-band dual polarization radar) which collected continuous dual-Doppler measurements of precipitating convection.This paper focuses on data from the TOGA radar to provide a preliminary overview of general properties of convective organization observed during TRMM-LBA. These include squall line evolution and morphology, diurnal variation of precipitation, and the vertical intensity of convection. Mesoscale squall lines were most commonly observed in the afternoon, with associated regions of stratiform precipitation persisting into the evening. Nocturnal widespread stratiform rain often formed before sunrise, with no apparent source region of deep convection and very weak radar bright band. Reflectivity values in deep convective cells typically decreased rapidly above the melting level, reminiscent of tropical oceanic convection, and consistent with the relative scarcity of lightning (with respect to other tropical continental regions). Vertically developed electrified convection, though infrequent, did occur regularly.

Rickenbach, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Intercomparison of SCIAMACHY and OMI Tropospheric NO2 Columns: Observing the Diurnal Evolution of Chemistry and Emissions from Space

Concurrent (August 2006) measurements of tropospheric NO2 columns from OMI aboard Aura (1330 local overpass time) and SCIAMACHY aboard Envisat (1000 local overpass time) offer an opportunity to examine the consistency between the two instruments under tropospheric background conditions and the effect of different observing times. For scenes with tropospheric NO 2 columns <5.0 x 10(exp 15) molecules cm 2, SCIAMACHY and OMI agree within 1.0-2.0 x 10(exp 15) molecules cm 2, consistent with the detection limits of both instruments. We find evidence for a low bias of 0.2 x 10(exp 15) molecules cm 2 in OMI observations over remote oceans. Over the fossil fuel source regions at northern midlatitudes, we find that SCIAMACHY observes up to 40% higher NO2 at 1000 local time (LT) than OMI at 1330 LT. Over biomass burning regions in the tropics, SCIAMACHY observes up to 40% lower NO 2 columns than OMI. These differences are present in the spectral fitting of the data (slant column) and are augmented in the fossil fuel regions and dampened in the tropical biomass burning regions by the expected increase in air mass factor as the mixing depth rises from 1000 to 1330 LT. Using a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), we show that the 1000-1330 LT decrease in tropospheric NO2 column over fossil fuel source regions can be explained by photochemical loss, dampened by the diurnal cycle of anthropogenic emissions that has a broad daytime maximum. The observed 1000-1330 LT NO2 column increase over tropical biomass burning regions points to a sharp midday peak in emissions and is consistent with a diurnal cycle of emissions derived from geostationary satellite fire counts.

Boersma, K. Folkert↗
NASA NTRS2002

CRYSTAL-FACE: A Field Experiment and Modeling Program Focused on Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers

The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) is a measurement campaign designed to investigate tropical Cirrus cloud physical properties and formation processes. Understanding the production of upper tropospheric cirrus clouds is essential for the successful modeling of 'he Earth's climate. The deployment phase will occur in July, 2002 in southern Florida, USA. Several aircraft will be used, including the ER-2 and Proteus for cloud remote sensing, the WB-57 and Citation for in situ cloud measurements, the P-3 with a Doppler radar for characterization of convective systems, and the Twin otter for sampling of inflow airmasses. In addition, numerous ground-based and satellite remote sensing measurements will be contributing. A central focus of the mission is improvement of our ability to model cirrus clouds with numerical models. Several research groups with a variety of model types (cloud-resolving models, mesoscale models, weather-prediction models, and general circulation models) will be participating. Our hope is to fully characterize several mulonimbus/cirrus anvil systems that can be used as case studies for testing and improvement of the models. The models will be used for investigating cirrus generation and dissipation processes and the sensitivity of tropical cirrus to convective intensity and aerosol properties. Ultimately, we expect this effort to improve our ability to represent tropical cirrus in GCMs. A general description of the CRYSTAL-FACE program will be presented, with an emphasis on the cloud modeling approach.

Jenson, Eric↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Change Impact on Surface Ozone Based on CMIP6 Earth System Models

It is presented an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone (O3) discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modeling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. All models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration varying spatially from -0.2 to -2 ppbv oC-1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions, which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone chemical loss with higher water vapour abudances under a warmer climate. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv oC-1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. The individual models show this robustly for south-eastern China and India as well as for regions of Africa but there are inter-model differences in areas within Europe and the United States (US) as well as in South America. The future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Potential for Collocated AGLP and ERBE data for Fire, Smoke, and Radiation Budget Studies

One month of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Area Coverage (GAC) Land Pathfinder (AGLP) data from September 1985 are used to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of fires over four major ecosystems in South America. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner data are used to examine the top of atmosphere (TOA) shortwave and longwave fluxes over smoke generated from biomass burn- ing. The relationship between the AGLP-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the ERBE-estimated clear sky albedos are also examined as a function of the four ecosystems. This study shows that the grassland areas in South America have the highest number of fires for September 1985, and their corresponding NDVI values are smaller than the tropical rainforest region where the number of fires were comparatively small. Clear sky statistics accumulated during the days when smoke was not present show that clear sky albedos derived from ERBE are higher for grassland areas when compared to the tropical rainforest. The results show that the AGLP can be used to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of fires along with vegetation characteristics, while ERBE data can provide necessary information on broadband albedos and regional top of atmosphere radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols. Since the AGLP data are available from 1981 to the present day, several climate-related issues can be addressed.

Christropher, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Potential for Collocated AGLP and ERBE Data for Fire, Smoke, and Radiation Budget Studies

One month of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Area Coverage (GAC) Land Pathfinder (AGLP) data from September 1985 are used to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of fires over four major ecosystems in South America. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner data are used to examine the top of atmosphere (TOA) shortwave and longwave fluxes over smoke generated from biomass burning. The relationship between the AGLP-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the ERBE-estimated clear sky albedos are also examined as a function of the four ecosystems. This study shows that the grassland areas in South America have the highest number of fires for September 1985. and their corresponding NDVI values are smaller than the tropical rainforest region where the number of fires were comparatively small. Clear sky statistics accumulated during the days when smoke was not present show that clear sky albedos derived from ERBE are higher for grassland areas when compared to the tropical rainforest. The results show that the AGLP can be used to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of fires along with vegetation characteristics, while ERBE data can provide necessary information on broadband albedos and regional top of atmosphere radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols. Since the AGLP data are available from 1981 to the present day, several climate-related issues can be addressed,

Christopher, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Potential for Collocated AGLP and ERBE Data for Fire, Smoke, and Radiation Budget Studies

One month of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Area Coverage (GAC) Land Pathfinder (AGLP) data from September 1985 are used to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of fires over four major ecosystems in South America. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner data are used to examine the top of atmosphere (TOA) shortwave and longwave fluxes over smoke generated from biomass burning. The relationship between the AGLP-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the ERBE-estimated clear sky albedos are also examined as a function of the four ecosystems. This study shows that the grassland areas in South America have the highest number of tires for September 1985, and their corresponding NDVI values are smaller than the tropical rainforest region where the number of fires were comparatively small. Clear sky statistics accumulated during the days when smoke was not present show that clear sky albedos derived from ERBE are higher for grassland areas when compared to the tropical rainforest. The results show that the AGLP can be used to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of fires along with vegetation characteristics, while ERBE data can provide necessary information on broadband albedos and regional top of atmosphere radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols. Since the AGLP data are available from 1981 to the present day, several climate-related issues can be addressed.

Christopher, S. A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advances in understanding the changes of tropical rainfall annual cycle: a review

Abstract Aided by progress in the theoretical understanding, new knowledge on tropical rainfall annual cycle changes under a global warming background has been advanced in the past decade. In this review, we focus on recent advances in understanding the changes of tropical rainfall annual cycle, including its four distinct features: amplitude, spatial pattern shift, phase and wet/dry season length changes. Here, amplitude refers to the local summer-winter rainfall contrast and phase refers to the timing of rainfall annual cycle. In a warming climate, the amplitude is enhanced, more evidently over ocean, while the phase is delayed, mainly over land. The former is explained by the wet-get-wetter mechanism and the latter is explained by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and increased convective barrier. The phase delay over land has already emerged in the past four decades. The spatial pattern shift under warming is marked by two features: equatorward shift of the ITCZ throughout the year and the land-to-ocean precipitation shift in the rainy season. The former is explained by the upped-ante mechanism and/or related to the enhanced equatorial warming in a warmer world. The latter may be caused by the opposite land and ocean surface temperature annual cycle changes in the tropics. Over tropical rainforest regions such as Amazon and Congo Basin, the dry season has lengthened in the recent decades, but the fundamental reason is still unclear. Despite the notable progress in the research of tropical rainfall annual cycle change, many gaps remain in understanding its mechanisms, quantifying and attributing its historical emergence, narrowing the inter-model uncertainty of its future projections, and evaluating its global impact, motivating future work guided by some directions proposed in this review.

Song, Fengfei (ORCID:0000000230041749)↗
NASA NTRS2011

Variability of Irreversible Poleward Transport in the Lower Stratosphere

The ascent and descent of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a large role in determining the distributions of many constituents in the extratropical lower stratosphere. However, relatively fast, quasi-horizontal transport out of the tropics and polar regions also significantly contribute to determining these distributions. The tropical tape recorder signal assures that there must be outflow from the tropics into the extratropical lower stratosphere. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and state of the polar vortex are known to modulate the transport from the tropical and polar regions, respectively. In this study we examine multiple years of ozone distributions in the extratropical lower stratosphere observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Aura High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS). The distributions are compared with analyses of irreversible, meridional isentropic transport. We show that there is considerable year-to-year seasonal variability in the amount of irreversible transport from the tropics, which is related to both the phase of the QBO and the state of the polar vortex. The reversibility of the transport is consistent with the number of observed breaking waves. The variability of the atmospheric index of refraction in the lower stratosphere is shown to be significantly correlated with the wave breaking and amount of irreversible transport. Finally, we will show that the seasonal extratropical stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone can be substantially modulated by the amount of irreversible meridional transport in the lower stratosphere and we investigate how observable these differences are in data of tropospheric ozone.

Olsen, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2004

Effects of Cloud-Microphysics on Tropical Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes in the GEOS GCM

The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud-microphysics is investigated using the NASA GEOS GCM. Results show that a faster autoconversion - rate produces more warm rain and less clouds at all levels. Fewer clouds enhances longwave cooling and reduces shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces increased condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical heating differential destablizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain over the tropics. The feedback is maintained via a two-cell secondary circulation. The lower cell is capped by horizontal divergence and maximum cloud detrainment near the melting/freezing, with rising motion in the warm rain region connected to descending motion in the cold rain region. The upper cell is found above the freezing/melting level, with longwave-induced subsidence in the warm rain and dry regions, coupled to forced ascent in the deep convection region. The tropical large scale circulation is found to be very sensitive to the radiative-dynamic effects induced by changes in autoconversion rate. Reduced cloud-radiation processes feedback due to a faster autoconversion rate results in intermittent but more energetic eastward propagating Madden and Julian Oscillations (MJO). Conversely,-a slower autconversion rate, with increased cloud radiation produces MJO's with more realistic westward propagating transients, resembling a supercloud cluster structure. Results suggests that warm rain and associated low and mid level clouds, i.e., cumulus congestus, may play a critical role in regulating the time-intervals of deep convections and hence the fundamental time scales of the MJO.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Tropical Ocean Evaporation/SST Sensitivity and It's Link to Water and Energy Budget Variations During ENSO

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system - changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus primarily on interannual variations of ocean evaporative fluxes and their significance for coupled water and energy cycles within the tropical climate system. In particular, we use both the da Silva estimates of surface fluxes (based on the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set, COADS) and numerical simulations from several global climate models to examine evaporation sensitivity to perturbations in SST associated with warm and cold ENSO events. The specific questions we address are as follows: (1) What recurring patterns of surface wind and humidity anomalies are present during ENSO and how do they combine to yield systematic evaporation anomalies?, (2) What is the resulting tropical ocean mean evaporation-SST sensitivity associated with this climate perturbation?, and (3) What role does this evaporation play in tropical heat and water balance over tropical oceanic regions? We use the da Silva ocean flux data to identify composite structure of departures of latent heat flux from climatology. We also show how these patterns arise out of associated wind and humidity anomaly distributions. Our preliminary work shows that evaporation sensitivity estimates from the da Silva / COADS data, computed for the tropical oceans (30 degrees N/S) are in the neighborhood of 5 to 6 W/square m K. Model estimates are also quite close to this figure. This rate is only slightly less than a rate corresponding to constant relative humidity; however, substantial regional departures from constant relative humidity are present. These patterns are robust and we relate the associated wind and humidity fluctuations noted in previous investigations to the derived evaporation anomalies. Finally, these results are interpreted with other data from the Earth radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and NASA's Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) data set to characterize the tropical energetics of ENSO-related climate variability.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Abstract This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C −1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C −1 , with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C −1 , implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

Zanis, Prodromos↗
NASA NTRS2022

Climate Change Penalty and Benefit on Surface Ozone: A Global Perspective Based on CMIP6 Earth System Models

This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

surface ozone↗
NASA NTRS2009

Five-Year (2004-2009)Observations of Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor and Cloud Ice from MLS and Comparisons with GEOS-5 Analyses

This paper gives an overview of August 2004 through July 2009 upper tropospheric (UT) water vapor (H2O) and ice water content (IWC) from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and comparisons with outputs from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. Both MLS and GEOS-5 show that high values of H2O and IWC at 215 to 147 hPa are associated with areas of deep convection. They exhibit good (within approximately 15%) agreement in IWC at these altitudes, but GEOS-5 H2O is approximately 50% (215 hPa) to approximately 30% (147 hPa) larger than MLS, possibility due to its higher temperatures at these altitudes. GOES-5 produces a weaker intertropical convergence zone than MLS, while a seasonally-migrating band of tropical deep convection is clearly evident in both the MLS and GEOS-5 UT H2O and IWC. MLS and GEOS-5 both show spatial anti-correlation between IWC and H2O at 100 hPa, where less H2O is associated with low temperatures in regions of tropical convection. At 100 hPa, GEOS-5 produces 50% less IWC and 15% less H2O in the tropics, and approximately 20% more H2O in the extra-tropics, than does MLS. Behavior of the 100 hPa H2O, which exhibits a quasi-biennial oscillation, appears consistent with it being controlled by temperature. The seasonal cycle in the vertical transport of tropical mean H2O from approximately 147 hPa to approximately 10 hPa appears much stronger in MLS than in GEOS-5. The UT IWC and H2O interannual variations, from both MLS and GEOS-5, show clear imprints of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

Jiang, Jonathan H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Intercomparisons of Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Other Long Term Data Sets

Global water vapor data sets from satellite (NVAP) and reanalysis (NCEP and DAO) are intercompared for a 5 year period (1988-1992). Global average indicates that the NCEP and DAO reanalyses are dryer than NVAP over much of the period. Spatial patterns of the NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences show regional variations in the 60 month climatogical fields. For example, in the Eastern Pacific just south of the equator NVAP is much dryer than the NCEP and more moist than DAO. Rather large discrepancies exist in other regions as well. North Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, and Australia show that NVAP TPW values are more moist than the NCEP and DAO model analyses by 4-8 mm. In general, the NCEP and DAO exhibits a tendency to be dryer than NVAP over the tropical ocean region. Over the Americas little differences exist except over the west coast. The shapes of the differences fields over the Eastern Pacific region are significantly different between NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences. Over South America and Central Africa, DAO TPW values are significantly higher than those of NVAP. These difference fields show monthly and seasonal variability as well. These results will be highlighted in the paper and on the poster.

Chang, Fong-Chiau↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Lau, William K. M.↗