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At least 253 records · Page 14

DeepDiagnostics: A Software Package for Streamlined Posterior Evaluation

Automated prediction techniques like simulation-based inference (SBI) are important tasks for science experiments that produce large amounts of complex, raw data. However, their development remains in its early stages because the uncertainties of these techniques lack sufficient trustworthiness and interpretability. Packages for SBI provide a growing set of diagnostics; however, the software requirements are substantial, as they are tied to the inference technology itself, and the APIs lack adaptability. We introduce the DeepDiagnostics package for diagnosing posteriors from analytic likelihood-based methods and SBI methods, such as neural posterior estimation. DeepDiagnostics produces a comprehensive set of high-quality visualizations and metrics in a highly accessible, easy-to-use, and flexible package. We address all of these goals by providing a command-line inference tool and a Python API that is controlled through a configuration file. The package includes common diagnostics, such as parity plots, corner (covariance) plots, simulation-based calibration (SBC) diagnostics (including posterior coverage and rank histograms), Lemos et al. s PQMass and TARP, Masserano et al. s WALDO, Linhart et al. s LC2ST, as well as credible region diagnostics developed by our group.

Voetberg, Maggie [Fermilab]↗

VARI3D & PERSENT: Perturbation and Sensitivity Analysis

The nodal diffusion method is one of the most widely used approaches in modern reactor analysis. In the nodal diffusion method, a coarse multi-group set of “homogenized” parameters is constructed such that the complex geometry of a reactor core along with the energy dependence of neutron and gamma ray cross sections in a nuclear reactor are conserved in the simpler geometry. The homogenization is typically done on a fuel assembly level as is the case in the DIF3D code developed at Argonne National Laboratory. The nodal methodology is used primarily to predict fuel cycle behavior of nuclear systems of which there is a substantial amount of validation in the literature. Another use of the nodal method is to obtain reactivity coefficients and kinetics parameters for use in a safety analysis of a given nuclear reactor. While there are many ways to obtain reactivity worth and kinetics parameters, the work presented in this manuscript is unique as it provides the user with the ability to compute reactivity worths, kinetics parameters, and cross section sensitivities with a Cartesian and hexagonal geometry based transport code. This manuscript serves as a single manual for two separate codes: VARI3D and PERSENT. The VARI3D code (VARIational 3D) is based upon the classic finite difference diffusion theory solver available in DIF3D. The PERSENT code (PERturbation and SENitivity for Transport) is based upon the variational nodal method employed in DIF3D termed VARIANT. The VARIANT solver was added to DIF3D in 1995 and has seen continued development and use for the last 18 years. Because VARI3D primarily uses deprecated coding practices, rather than incorporating the perturbation and sensitivity treatments for transport within VARI3D, a new coding development was built using modern Fortran coding. The primary purpose of this manual is to describe the theory behind PERSENT (and by convenience, that of VARI3D) and discuss the input and output of PERSENT along with giving potential users an idea of how to use it. While this manuscript does describe the input and output of VARI3D, the PERSENT code is intended to be the replacement capability of VARI3D as PERSENT can generate nearly identical (if not superior) diffusion theory results. In this manuscript, the relevant aspects of generalized perturbation theory and exact perturbation theory that apply to both VARI3D and PERSENT are covered. The input and output of VARI3D is displayed by excerpting several of the example problems. Similarly, the input and output of PERSENT is displayed along with tips on how best to use the code. Note that the input and output of the inhomogeneous solver wrapped around DIF3D (DIF3D_IFS) is also discussed as it is needed to carry out some of the sensitivities in PERSENT such as reaction rate ratios. This manuscript describes several perturbation and sensitivity problems, and the results computed using PERSENT. From these sections, potential users should find that PERSENT provides not only the typical tables of numbers desired in perturbation and sensitivity analysis work, but also can visually plot the result for a more thorough understanding of the space and energy distribution (Section 5). Overall, PERSENT is observed to produce accurate reactivity worths and sensitivities for the displayed set of test problems and clearly demonstrates the need to have a transport-based sensitivity capability as evident from the thousands of percent errors observed in the 21-group hexagonal fast reactor problem (covered in Section 7). The uncertainty calculation capability is described in Section 3 and demonstrated in Section 7.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Characterization of Speciated Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Over California

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem) with added capability of diagnosing the spatial and seasonal distribution of radiative forcings for individual aerosol species over California is used to characterize the radiative forcing of speciated aerosols in California. Model simulations for the year of 2005 are evaluated with various observations including meteorological data from California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS), aerosol mass concentrations from US EPA Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) and Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE), and aerosol optical depth from AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and satellites. The model well captures the observed seasonal meteorological conditions over California. Overall, the simulation is able to reproduce the observed spatial and seasonal distribution of mass concentration of total PM2.5 and the relative contribution from individual aerosol species, except the model significantly underestimates the surface concentrations of organic matter (OM) and elemental carbon (EC), potentially due to uncertainty in the anthropogenic emissions of OM and EC and the outdated secondary organic aerosol mechanism used in the model. A sensitivity simulation with anthropogenic EC emission doubled significantly reduces the model low bias of EC. The simulation reveals high anthropogenic aerosol loading over the Central Valley and the Los Angeles metropolitan regions and high natural aerosol (dust) loading over southeastern California. The seasonality of aerosol surface concentration is mainly determined by vertical turbulent mixing, ventilation, and photochemical activity, with distinct characteristics for individual aerosol species and between urban and rural areas. The simulations show that anthropogenic aerosols dominate the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The ratio of AOD to AAOD (aerosol absorption optical depth) shows distinct seasonality with a winter maximum and a summer minimum. Aerosol radiative forcing is presented along with the contribution from individual aerosol species from the simulation with anthropogenic EC emission doubled. On statewide average over California, aerosol reduces the seasonal-average surface radiation fluxes by about 3 W m-2 with a maximum of 10 W m-2 in summer. In the atmosphere, aerosol introduces a warming effect of about 2 W m-2 with a maximum of 10 W m-2 also in summer. EC and dust contribute about 75-95% and 1-10% of the total warming through the seasons, respectively. At the top of atmosphere (TOA), the overall aerosol radiative effect is cooling with a maximum of -3.5 W m-2. EC contributes exclusively to the TOA warming of up to about 0.7 W m-2. The encouraging performance of WRF-Chem in simulating aerosols and their radiative forcing suggests that the model is suitable for further investigation of the impact of emission control on radiative forcing and regional climate over California.

aerosol↗

Unsupervised anomaly detection in MeV ultrafast electron diffraction

MeV ultrafast electron diffraction (MUED) is a pump-probe technique used to study the dynamic structural evolution of materials. An ultrashort laser pulse triggers structural changes, which are then probed by an ultrashort relativistic electron beam. To overcome low signal-to-noise ratios, diffraction patterns are averaged over thousands of shots. However, shot-to-shot instabilities in the electron beam can distort individual patterns, introducing uncertainty. Improving MUED accuracy requires detecting and removing these anomalous patterns from large datasets. In this work, we developed a fully unsupervised methodology for the detection of anomalous diffraction patterns. Using a convolutional autoencoder, we calculate the reconstruction mean squared error of the diffraction patterns. Based on the statistical analysis of this error, we provide the user an estimation of the probability that the pattern is normal, which also allows a posterior visual inspection of the images that are difficult to classify. This method has been trained with only 100 diffraction patterns and tested on 1521 patterns, resulting in a false positive rate between 0.2% and 0.4%, with a training time of 10 s per image and a test time of about 1 s per image. Here, the proposed methodology can also be applied to other diffraction techniques in which large datasets are collected that include faulty images due to instrumental instabilities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

A methodology for decay heat characterization in molten salt reactors

Accurate decay heat prediction in molten salt reactors (MSRs) faces dual challenges: complex operational uncertainties and the need for interpretable models compatible with engineering workflows. This work presents a hybrid machine learning and segmented polynomial methodology that addresses both requirements through three key innovations. First, a modular data architecture encodes MSR-specific operational parameters (power density: 1-100 W cm -3 , humidity: 0-0.1 wt %, air ingress: 0-0.1 mol %) with uncertainty-aware temporal discretization spanning 15 orders of magnitude. Second, region-optimized machine learning models achieve 92.3 % root mean square error (RMSE) reduction over conventional polynomials while maintaining physical interpretability through automated piecewise equation generation. Third, dual front-end interfaces accelerate safety analyses — a Jupyter environment enables researchers to explore 10,000+ parameter combinations via interactive widgets, while a Streamlit web application reduces design iteration cycles through production-grade visualization tools. Operational deployment demonstrates prediction times of only a couple hundred milliseconds for 10 4 years decay profiles, enabling real-time optimization of spent fuel container designs.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Accuracy evaluation of the optical surface monitoring system on EDGE linear accelerator in a phantom study

Frameless stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) requires dedicated systems to monitor the patient position during the treatment to avoid target underdosage due to involuntary shift. The optical surface monitoring system (OSMS) is here evaluated in a phantom-based study. The new EDGE linear accelerator from Varian (Varian, Palo Alto, CA) integrates, for cranial lesions, the common cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) and kV-MV portal images to the optical surface monitoring system (OSMS), a device able to detect real-time patient's face movements in all 6 couch axes (vertical, longitudinal, lateral, rotation along the vertical axis, pitch, and roll). We have evaluated the OSMS imaging capability in checking the phantoms' position and monitoring its motion. With this aim, a home-made cranial phantom was developed to evaluate the OSMS accuracy in 4 different experiments: (1) comparison with CBCT in isocenter location, (2) capability to recognize predefined shifts up to 2° or 3 cm, (3) evaluation at different couch angles, (4) ability to properly reconstruct the surface when the linac gantry visually block one of the cameras. The OSMS system showed, with a phantom, to be accurate for positioning in respect to the CBCT imaging system with differences of 0.6 ± 0.3 mm for linear vector displacement, with a maximum rotational inaccuracy of 0.3°. OSMS presented an accuracy of 0.3 mm for displacement up to 1 cm and 1°, and 0.5 mm for larger displacements. Different couch angles (45° and 90°) induced a mean vector uncertainty < 0.4 mm. Coverage of 1 camera produced an uncertainty < 0.5 mm. Translations and rotations of a phantom can be accurately detect with the optical surface detector system.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Quantifying similarity in reliability surfaces using the probability of agreement

When separate populations exhibit similar reliability as a function of multiple explanatory variables, combining them into a single population is tempting. This can simplify future predictions and reduce uncertainty associated with estimation. However, combining these populations may introduce bias if the underlying relationships are in fact different. The probability of agreement formally and intuitively quantifies the similarity of estimated reliability surfaces across a two-factor input space. An example from the reliability literature demonstrates the utility of the approach when deciding whether to combine two populations or to keep them as distinct. As a result, new graphical summaries provide strategies for visualizing the results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Computational Math Problems for a Clean Energy Future

Cutting edge computational mathematics are ubiquitous in renewable energy research. Problems in resilient and reliable electric grid operations, infrastructure planning, wind farm yaw control, and more demand sophisticated and scalable computational tools that enable the transition of renewable energy technologies from proof of concept to deployment into our energy system. The mission of the Computational Science Center at NREL is to lead the lab's efforts to solve energy challenges using high-performance computing (HPC), computational science, applied mathematics, scientific data management, visualization, and informatics. In this poster, we provide a short overview of three areas of computational mathematics research at NREL: wind power scenario generation for stochastic grid operations and infrastructure planning, improved rational function approximations for electromagnetic transients codes, and wind farm yaw control using a combination of the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) and reinforcement learning (RL). Increasing penetrations of renewable energy into power grids motivate the investigation of new approaches to characterizing uncertainty for five-minute economic dispatch problems. Similarly, as the penetration of distributed energy resources on power grids increases, it becomes important to revisit our methods of modelling transient phenomena, i.e. electromagnetic transients programs. Finally, the combination of ADMM and RL for wind farm yaw control presented here can potentially increase the efficiency of the deployed distributed controllers by orders of magnitude.

ADMM↗

Human Factors Principles in Information Dashboard Design - 278

Refueling outages remain one of the largest opportunities for improving capacity factor and reducing costs available to commercial nuclear power plants. Although the nuclear industry has made steady improvement in outage optimization, each day of a refueling outage still represents an opportunity to save millions of dollars and each day an outage extends past its planned end date represents millions of dollars that may have been spent unnecessarily. Reducing planned outage duration or preventing outage extensions requires careful management of the outage schedule as well as constant oversight and monitoring of work completion during the outage execution. During a typical outage, there are typically more than 10,000 activities on the schedule that, if not managed efficiently, may cause expensive outage delays. Management of outages currently relies largely on paper-based resources and general-purpose office software. A typical method currently used to monitor work performance is a burn-down curve, where total remaining activities are plotted against the baseline schedule to track bulk work completion progress. While methods like this are useful, there is still considerable uncertainty during a typical outage whether bulk work progress is adequate and therefore a lot of management time is spent analyzing the situation on a daily basis. This paper is a case study of how new technology, in combination with established human-factors and user-centered design knowledge, can be used to support Outage Control Center (OCC) personnel decision making. In particular, we describe recent advances made in developing a framework for the design of visual outage information presentation, as well as an overview of the human factors principles that informed the development of the visualizations. To test the utility of advanced visual outage information presentation, an outage management dashboard software application was created as part of the Department of Energy's Advanced Outage Control Center project (AOCC). This dashboard is intended to present all the critical information an outage manager would need to understand the current status of a refueling outage. The dashboard presents the critical path, bulk work performance, key performance indicators, outage milestones and metrics relating current performance to historical performance. Additionally, the dashboard includes data analysis tools to allow outage managers to drill down into the underlying data to understand the drivers of the indicators. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ten questions concerning low-cost indoor air quality sensors: Perspectives from research and practice

Low-cost indoor air quality (IAQ) sensors are increasingly being used in homes and commercial and public buildings, driven by growing concerns about the impact of air on health, cognitive performance, and occupant wellbeing. These sensors offer a potentially transformative opportunity to increase spatial and temporal coverage of IAQ monitoring at a fraction of the cost of conventional reference instruments. However, their widespread use raises questions around accuracy, calibration, placement, data handling and interpretation, and integration into existing standards and workflows. This paper presents ten critical questions concerning the use of low-cost IAQ sensors in buildings, drawing on the latest empirical research, field deployments, and emerging practice. It discusses potential frameworks for deployment and evaluation, examines current sensor capabilities for measuring common pollutants, identifies methodological gaps in validation and uncertainty quantification, and outlines the extent to which existing IAQ standards can accommodate sensor-based evidence. The paper also explores how monitoring needs and deployment models vary by building type, the potential of real-time IAQ data to support building operations, and the ethical and legal implications of widespread sensor use. While significant challenges remain in ensuring data quality and building stakeholder trust, new applications are emerging through open data initiatives and advances in analytics and visualization. As the technology, science, and standards co-evolve, low-cost IAQ sensors are poised to become integral to routine building operation, building science, and environmental health research.

Parkinson, Thomas↗

EMPHATIC Silicon Strip Detector Efficiencies

EMPHATIC is an experiment at Fermilab which aims to reduce current neutrino flux uncertainties. This report discusses the limitations current neutrino flux uncertainties places on large scale neutrino experiments, provides background on the EMPHATIC experiment, and details the project of determining the efficiency of the Silicon Strip Detectors (SSDs) used in EMPHATIC. As part of the data analysis process and in order to increase the accuracy of EMPHATIC’s simulations a representation of efficiency of each SSD is required. To achieve this a data-driven analysis was performed on EMPHATIC's collected data using the Root and Art frameworks. Visual and numerical representations of efficiency were determined. The average efficiency over all SSDs is 98.58\%, however this number deflated as it includes known bad channels.

Olson, Virginia [Illinois U., Urbana (main)]↗

Determining the Efficiency of EMPHATICs Silicon Strip Detectors (SSDs)

EMPHATIC is an experiment at Fermilab which aims to reduce current neutrino flux uncertainties. This report discusses the limitations current neutrino flux uncertainties places on large scale neutrino experiments, provides background on the EMPHATIC experiment, and details the project of determining the efficiency of the Silicon Strip Detectors (SSDs) used in EMPHATIC. As part of the data analysis process and in order to increase the accuracy of EMPHATIC’s simulations a representation of efficiency of each SSD is required. To achieve this a data-driven analysis was performed on EMPHATIC's collected data using the Root and Art frameworks. Visual and numerical representations of efficiency were determined. The average efficiency over all SSDs is 98.58\%, however this number deflated as it includes known bad channels.

Olson, V. [Illinois U., Urbana (main)]↗

Multiple response optimization for higher dimensions in factors and responses

When optimizing a product or process with multiple responses, a two-stage Pareto front approach is a useful strategy to evaluate and balance trade-offs between different estimated responses to seek optimum input locations for achieving the best outcomes. After objectively eliminating non-contenders in the first stage by looking for a Pareto front of superior solutions, graphical tools can be used to identify a final solution in the second subjective stage to compare options and match with user priorities. Until now, there have been limitations on the number of response variables and input factors that could effectively be visualized with existing graphical summaries. We present novel graphical tools that can be more easily scaled to higher dimensions, in both the input and response spaces, to facilitate informed decision making when simultaneously optimizing multiple responses. A key aspect of these graphics is that the potential solutions can be flexibly sorted to investigate specific queries, and that multiple aspects of the solutions can be simultaneously considered. As a result, recommendations are made about how to evaluate the impact of the uncertainty associated with the estimated response surfaces on decision making with higher dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Characterization of Highly Active Cells in Preparation for Post Operational Clean Out at Sellafield - 18139

The Highly Active Liquor Evaporation and Storage (HALES) Plant at Sellafield receives highly active (HA) raffinate liquors from the Magnox and Thermal Oxide (THoRP) Reprocessing Plants. These liquors are concentrated through evaporation into Highly Active Liquor (HAL), conditioned and stored in HALES before immobilisation in glass in the Waste Vitrification Plant (WVP). Reprocessing operations at Sellafield are nearing completion and hence these liquor feeds will soon cease. Therefore, HALES is starting its planning and preparation phases for Post Operational Clean Out (POCO) and decommissioning. POCO is a transitional phase between operations and decommissioning and encompasses activities undertaken to remove residual inventory and activity from the facility. Key drivers for POCO include risk and hazard reduction and facilitating subsequent decommissioning activities (including potential surveillance and maintenance or care and maintenance regimes). Characterization is a critical enabler for development and implementation of effective POCO. In addition to the key drivers above characterization within HALES will be used to: - Define the start and end points of POCO (radiological condition, inventory sources and location, configuration, etc.); - Develop and technically underpin the wash out strategy (volumes, rates, reagent types, etc.; - Monitor the effectiveness of POCO activities (reduction in inventory/activity, points of diminishing return, confirmation of end points for POCO). There are a number of significant challenges that present to characterization of the HALES facilities. Perhaps the most significant of these is the radiological status of the facility. HALES is an HA facility meaning that the high dose rates limit not only the technology selection for characterization (i.e. those with a very high radiation tolerance) but also place constraints on the access and deployment for the selected technology. Additionally, parts of the facility are circa 60 years old which brings its own challenges such as poor quality construction drawings and limited operational knowledge. Finally, limited sampling capability and minimal data regarding historic operations has resulted in uncertainties that will need to be addressed in order to undertake POCO as efficiently and effectively as possible. The solution to this challenge requires a novel and innovative approach and an example of this is the technique which is described in this paper. This is a radiometric characterization technique which utilizes remotely deployed dosimetry to determine the activity distribution within the vessels of interest to POCO. The results to date have been extremely promising, and the ability to produce concise visual representation of these results has already begun to facilitate better informed discussions around the POCO of the facility. It is expected that in the future this technique will be applicable to other areas of Sellafield which face similar characterization challenges. This paper presents a summary of the development and implementation of the solution along with the results obtained so far. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Eddy Current for Sizing Cracks in Canisters for Dry Storage of Used Nuclear Fuel

The storage of used nuclear fuel (UNF) in dry canister storage systems (DCSSs) at Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installations (ISFSI) sites is a temporary measure to accommodate UNF inventory until it can be reprocessed or transferred to a repository for permanent disposal. Policy uncertainty surrounding the long-term management of UNF indicates that DCSSs will need to store UNF for much longer periods than originally envisioned. Meanwhile, the structural and leak-tight integrity of DCSSs must not be compromised. The eddy current technique is presented as a potential tool for inspecting the outer surfaces of DCSS canisters for degradation, particularly atmospheric stress corrosion cracking (SCC). Results are presented that demonstrate that eddy current can detect flaws that cannot be detected reliably using standard visual techniques. In addition, simulations are performed to explore the best parameters of a pancake coil probe for sizing of SCC flaws in DCSS canisters and to identify features in frequency sweep curves that may potentially be useful for facilitating accurate depth sizing of atmospheric SCC flaws from eddy current measurements.

dry storage↗

A PRECISE PHYSICAL ORBIT FOR THE M-DWARF BINARY GLIESE 268

We report high-precision interferometric and radial velocity (RV) observations of the M-dwarf binary Gl 268. Combining measurements conducted using the IOTA interferometer and the ELODIE and Harvard Center for Astrophysics RV instruments leads to a mass of 0.22596 {+-} 0.00084 M {sub Sun} for component A and 0.19230 {+-} 0.00071 M {sub Sun} for component B. The system parallax as determined by these observations is 0.1560 {+-} 0.0030 arcsec-a measurement with 1.9% uncertainty in excellent agreement with Hipparcos (0.1572 {+-} 0.0033). The absolute H-band magnitudes of the component stars are not well constrained by these measurements; however, we can place an approximate upper limit of 7.95 and 8.1 for Gl 268A and B, respectively. We test these physical parameters against the predictions of theoretical models that combine stellar evolution with high fidelity, non-gray atmospheric models. Measured and predicted values are compatible within 2{sigma}. These results are among the most precise masses measured for visual binaries and compete with the best adaptive optics and eclipsing binary results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

WE-EF-BRA-03: Catheter- Free Ablation with External Photon Radiation: Treatment Planning, Delivery Considerations, and Correlation of Effects with Delivered Dose

Purpose: To plan, target, and calculate delivered dose in atrioventricular node (AVN) ablation with volume-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in an intact porcine model. Methods: Seven pigs underwent AVN irradiation, with prescription doses ranging between 25 and 55Gy in a single fraction. Cardiac CT scans were acquired at expiration. Two physicians contoured AVN targets on 10 phases, providing estimates of target motion and inter-physician variability. Treatment planning was conducted on a static phase-averaged CT. The volume designated to receive prescription dose covered the full extent of AVN cardiac motion, expanded by 4mm for setup uncertainty. Optimization limited doses to risk structures according to single-fraction tumor treatment protocols. Orthogonal kV images were used to align bony anatomy at time of treatment. Localization was further refined with respiratory-gated cone-beam CT, and range of cardiac motion was verified under fluoroscopy. Beam delivery was respiratory-gated for expiration with a mean efficiency of 60%. Deformable registration of the 10 cardiac CT phases was used to calculate actual delivered dose for comparison to electro-anatomical and visually evident lesions. Results: The mean [minimum,maximum] amplitude of AVN cardiac motion was LR 2.9 [1.7,3.9]mm, AP 6.6 [4.4,10.4]mm, and SI 5.6 [2.0,9.9]mm. Incorporating cardiac motion into the dose calculation showed the volume receiving full dose was 40–80% of the volume indicated on the static planning image, although the contoured AVN target received full dose in all animals. Initial results suggest the dimensions of the electro-anatomical lesion are correlated with the 40Gy isodose volume. Conclusion: Image-guidance techniques allow for accurate and precise delivery of VMAT for catheter-free arrhythmia ablation. An arsenal of advanced radiation planning, dose optimization, and image-guided delivery techniques was employed to assess and mitigate effects of cardiac and respiratory motion. Feasibility of delivery to the pulmonary veins and left ventricular myocardium will be investigated in future studies. D. Packer Disclosures: Abiomed, Biosense Webster, Inc., Boston Scientific Corp., CardioFocus, Inc., Johnson and Johnson, Excerpta Medica, Ortho-McNeil-Jannsen, Sanofi Aventis, CardioInsight Technologies, InfoBionic, SIEMENS, Medtronic, Inc., CardioDx, Inc., CardioInsight Technologies, FoxP2 Medica, Mediasphere Medical, Wiley-Blackwell, St. Jude Medical, Endosense, Thermedical, EP Advocate LLC, Hansen Medical, American Heart Association, EpiEP, NIH.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow

As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗