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At least 253 records · Page 14

Characterizing uncertainties in ground “truth” of precipitation over complex terrain through high-resolution numerical modeling

Ground observation of precipitation over complex terrain is subject to large uncertainties due to inadequate sampling. This study explores a method that combines limited gauge data and a high-resolution numerical simulation to quantify the precipitation uncertainties in central Himalaya. Specifically, the Coefficient of spatial Variability (CV) of precipitation and the minimum Number of Required Stations (NRS) to obtain areal-mean precipitation ground truth values within a 0.25-degree area are investigated using fine-scale meteorological simulation at 1.5 km grid spacing. Evaluation over a densely-gauged area demonstrates comparable CV and NRS values between station observations and simulations. The simulated CV and NRS values in a larger area show a strong and positive dependence on each other and an expected positive (negative) correlation with topographic complexity (temporal scale). The proposed method sheds lights on evaluating precipitation products and holds promise for informing the layout of rain gauge networks in complex terrain.

Ouyang, Lin↗

A stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme for GCM applications

In the surface hydrologic parameterization of general circulation models (GCMs), it is commonly assumed that the precipitation processes are homogeneous over a GCM grid square and that the precipitation intensity is uniformly distributed. Based on evidence that the spatial distribution of precipitation within a GCM grid square is crucial for the land surface hydrology parameterization, a few researchers have explored the impacts of assuming that the precipitation is exponentially distributed. This paper explores the suitability of the aforementioned assumptions. First, a statistical analysis is conducted of historical precipitation data for three GCM grids in different regions of the United States. The analysis suggests that neither the uniform nor the exponential distribution assumption may be suitable at the GCM grid scale and, that instead, the spatial variability in precipitation is characterized by statistical patterns that are inhomogeneous. These patterns vary from grid to grid and are induced by the interaction between atmospheric conditions and various land surface characteristics, such as topographical features, surface properties, etc. Within the same grid square, however, the statistical patterns are generally constant from year to year. Based on this analysis, a computationally viable (i.e., usable with GCMs) stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme that utilizes these stable statistical patterns is proposed. The method was used to generate spatially distributed hourly rainfall for a summer season in the southwestern region of the continental United States. Analysis of the results shows that the methodology preserves the seasonal characteristics of spatial variability in precipitation that is observed in the long-term historical data.

Gao, Xiaogang↗

Optimal interpolation of global dissolved oxygen: 1965–2015

Oxygen inventory of the global ocean has declined in recent decades potentially due to the warming-induced reduction in solubility as well as the circulation and biogeochemical changes associated with ocean warming and increasing stratification. Earth System Models predict continued oxygen decline for this century with profound impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries. Observational constraint on the rate of oxygen loss is crucial for assessing the ability of models to accurately simulate these changes. There are only a few observational assessments of the global oceanic oxygen inventory reporting a range of oxygen loss. This study develops a gridded data set of dissolved oxygen for the global oceans using optimal interpolation method. The resulting gridded product includes full-depth map of dissolved oxygen as 5-year moving average from 1965 to 2015 with uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty can come from unresolved small-scale and high-frequency variability and mapping errors. The multi-decadal trend of global dissolved oxygen is in the range of -281 to -373 Tmol/decade. This estimate is more conservative than previous works. In this study, the grid points far from the observations are essentially set equal to zero anomaly from the climatology. Calculating global inventory with this approach produces a relatively conservative estimate; thus, the results from this study likely provide a useful lower bound estimate of the global oxygen loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic multiscale flux basis for Stokes-Darcy flows

Three algorithms are developed for uncertainty quantification in modeling coupled Stokes and Darcy flows. The porous media may consist of multiple regions with different properties. The permeability is modeled as a non-stationary stochastic variable, with its log represented as a sum of local Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions. The problem is approximated by stochastic collocation on either tensor-product or sparse grids, coupled with a multiscale mortar mixed finite element method for the spatial discretization. A non-overlapping domain decomposition algorithm reduces the global problem to a coarse scale mortar interface problem, which is solved by an iterative solver, for each stochastic realization. In the traditional domain decomposition implementation, each subdomain solves a local Dirichlet or Neumann problem in every interface iteration. To reduce this cost, two additional algorithms based on deterministic or stochastic multiscale flux basis are introduced. The basis consists of the local flux (or velocity trace) responses from each mortar degree of freedom. It is computed for each subdomain independently before the interface iteration begins. The use of the multiscale flux basis avoids the need for subdomain solves on each iteration. The deterministic basis is computed at each stochastic collocation and used only at this realization. The stochastic basis is formed by further looping over all local realizations of a subdomain's KL region before the stochastic collocation begins. It is used over multiple realizations. Numerical tests are presented to illustrate the performance of the three algorithms, with the stochastic multiscale flux basis showing significant savings in computational cost compared to the other two algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scattering of radiofrequency waves by randomly modulated density interfaces in the edge of fusion plasmas

In the scrape-off layer and the edge region of a tokamak, the plasma is strongly turbulent and scatters the radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic waves that propagate through this region. It is important to know the spectral properties of these scattered RF waves, whether used for diagnostics or for heating and current drive. The spectral changes influence the interpretation of the obtained diagnostic data, and the current and heating profiles. A full-wave, three-dimensional (3-D) electromagnetic code ScaRF has been developed for studying the RF wave propagation through turbulent plasma. ScaRF is a finite-difference frequency-domain (FDFD) method used for solving Maxwell's equations. The magnetized plasma is defined through the cold plasma by the anisotropic permittivity tensor. As a result, ScaRF can be used to study the scattering of any cold plasma RF wave. It can also be used for the study of the scattering of electron cyclotron waves in ITER-type and medium-sized tokamaks such as TCV, ASDEX-U and DIII-D. For the case of medium-sized tokamaks, there is experimental evidence that drift waves and rippling modes are present in the edge region. Hence, we have studied the scattering of RF waves by periodic density interfaces (plasma gratings) in the form of a superposition of spatial modes with varying periodicity and random amplitudes. The power reflection coefficient (a random variable) is calculated for different realizations of the density interface. In this work, the uncertainty of the power reflection coefficient is rigorously quantified by use of the Polynomial Chaos Expansion method in conjunction with the Smolyak sparse-grid integration, which is known as the PCE-SG method. The PCE-SG method is proven to be accurate and more efficient compared with alternative methods such as the Monte Carlo (MC) approach.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Enhancing Active Distribution Systems Resilience by Fully Distributed Self-Healing Strategy

Distributed restoration can exploit smart grid technologies to enhance the resilience of active distribution networks toward a self-healing smart grid. However, the large number of decision variables, especially the binary ones for reconfiguration, bring challenges to developing scalable distributed distribution service restoration (DDSR) strategies. This paper proposes a fully distributed solution procedure based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) for mixed-integer programming problems and applies to develop the DDSR framework. The method consists of relax-drive-polish phases, 1) relaxing binary variables, and applying the convex ADMM as a warm start; 2) driving the solutions toward Boolean values through a proximal operator; 3) fixing the obtained binding binary variables and solving the rest of the problem to polish results and achieve a high-quality suboptimal solution. Then, an autonomous clustering strategy and consensus ADMM are integrated with the proposed method to realize the fully distributed cluster-based framework of DDSR. This framework can first determine DER scheduling and switch status for reconfiguration to energize the out-of-service areas from local faults, and then provide the load restoration solution in a distributed manner for total blackouts in large-scale distribution networks. Furthermore, the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed DDSR framework are demonstrated through testing on the IEEE 123-node, IEEE 8500-node, and synthetic 100k-node test feeders.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SCOPE Climate: a 142-year daily high-resolution ensemble meteorological reconstruction dataset over France

SCOPE Climate (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Climate dataset) is a 25-member ensemble of 142-year daily high-resolution reconstructions of precipitation, temperature, and Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration over France, from 1 January 1871 to 29 December 2012. SCOPE Climate provides an ensemble of 25 spatially coherent gridded multivariate time series. It is derived from the statistical downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) by the SCOPE method, which is based on the analogue approach. SCOPE Climate performs well in comparison to both dependent and independent data for precipitation and temperature. The ensemble aspect corresponds to the uncertainty related to the SCOPE method. SCOPE Climate is the first century-long gridded high-resolution homogeneous dataset available over France and thus has paved the way for improving knowledge on specific past meteorological events or for improving knowledge on climate variability, since the end of the 19th century. This dataset has also been designed as a forcing dataset for long-term hydrological applications and studies of the hydrological consequences of climate variability over France. SCOPE Climate is freely available for any non-commercial use and can be downloaded as NetCDF files from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1299760 for precipitation, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1299712 for temperature, and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1251843 for reference evapotranspiration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a time-dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes solver based on a fractional-step method

The main goals are the development, validation, and application of a fractional step solution method of the time-dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in generalized coordinate systems. A solution method that combines a finite volume discretization with a novel choice of the dependent variables and a fractional step splitting to obtain accurate solutions in arbitrary geometries is extended to include more general situations, including cases with moving grids. The numerical techniques are enhanced to gain efficiency and generality.

Rosenfeld, Moshe↗

Parametric Deformation of Discrete Geometry for Aerodynamic Shape Design

We present a versatile discrete geometry manipulation platform for aerospace vehicle shape optimization. The platform is based on the geometry kernel of an open-source modeling tool called Blender and offers access to four parametric deformation techniques: lattice, cage-based, skeletal, and direct manipulation. Custom deformation methods are implemented as plugins, and the kernel is controlled through a scripting interface. Surface sensitivities are provided to support gradient-based optimization. The platform architecture allows the use of geometry pipelines, where multiple modelers are used in sequence, enabling manipulation difficult or impossible to achieve with a constructive modeler or deformer alone. We implement an intuitive custom deformation method in which a set of surface points serve as the design variables and user-specified constraints are intrinsically satisfied. We test our geometry platform on several design examples using an aerodynamic design framework based on Cartesian grids. We examine inverse airfoil design and shape matching and perform lift-constrained drag minimization on an airfoil with thickness constraints. A transport wing-fuselage integration problem demonstrates the approach in 3D. In a final example, our platform is pipelined with a constructive modeler to parabolically sweep a wingtip while applying a 1-G loading deformation across the wingspan. This work is an important first step towards the larger goal of leveraging the investment of the graphics industry to improve the state-of-the-art in aerospace geometry tools.

Anderson, George R.↗

Modeling the Grid Integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) Resources

The presentation was given at the November 21-23, 2018 'CEM Days - Integration of Renewables in the Electric Sector: Paths and Challenges to Energy Planning' in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It provides a summary of NREL's current modeling approaches, datasets, and considerations for integrating renewables into the power system. It also covers current model method improvement efforts, including our vision for a truly integrated modeling approach.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Application of Low Dimensional Manifolds in NO(x) Prediction

A new post-processing technique has been developed, based on the Intrinsic Low Dimensional Manifold (ILDM) method of Maas and Pope. The ILDM method is a dynamical systems approach to the simplification of large chemical kinetic mechanisms. By identifying low-dimensional attracting manifolds, the method allows complex full mechanisms to be parameterized by just a few variables: In effect, generating reduced chemical mechanisms by an automatic procedure. These resulting mechanisms however, still retain all the species used in the full mechanism. The NO(x) post-processor takes an ILDM reduced mechanism and attempts to map this mechanism to the results of a CFD calculation. This mapping allows the NO(x) concentrations at each grid node to be obtained from the ILDM reduced mechanism, as well as other trace species of interest. Because a mapping procedure is used, this method is very fast, being able to process one million node calculations in just a few minutes.

Norris, A. T.↗

Advances in solar forecasting: Computer vision with deep learning

Renewable energy forecasting is crucial for integrating variable energy sources into the grid. It allows power systems to address the intermittency of the energy supply at different spatiotemporal scales. To anticipate the future impact of cloud displacements on the energy generated by solar facilities, conventional modeling methods rely on numerical weather prediction or physical models, which have difficulties in assimilating cloud information and learning systematic biases. Augmenting computer vision with machine learning overcomes some of these limitations by fusing real-time cloud cover observations with surface measurements acquired from multiple sources. This Review summarizes recent progress in solar forecasting from multisensor Earth observations with a focus on deep learning, which provides the necessary theoretical framework to develop architectures capable of extracting relevant information from data generated by ground-level sky cameras, satellites, weather stations, and sensor networks. Overall, machine learning has the potential to significantly improve the accuracy and robustness of solar energy meteorology; however, more research is necessary to realize this potential and address its limitations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Characterizing forecastability of wind sites in the United States

With the rapid growth of wind power, managing its uncertainty and variability becomes critical in power system operations. Wind forecasting is one of the enablers to partially tackle challenges associated with wind power uncertainty. To improve the 'forecasting ability', defined as forecastability, different forecasting methods have been developed to assist grid integration of wind energy. However, forecasting performance not only relies on the power of forecasting models, but is also related to local weather conditions and (known as wind characteristics) wind farm properties. In this study, geospatial and instance spatial distributions of six wind characteristics and two forecasting error metrics are first analyzed based on 126,000 + wind sites in the United States. Forecasts in different look-ahead times are generated by using a machine learning based multi-model forecasting framework model and the Weather Research and Forecasting model. A forecastability quantification method is developed by characterizing the relationship between forecastability and wind series entropy using three regression methods, i.e., linear approximation, locally weighted scatterplot smoother nonlinear nonparametric regression, and quantile regression. It is found that the forecastability of a wind site can be successfully characterized by wind series characteristics, thereby providing valuable information at different stages of wind energy projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Further development of XTRAN3S computer program

This report describes modifications and enhancements to XTRAN3S, a computer program for aerodynamic, static aeroelastic, and dynamic aeroelastic analysis of three-dimensional wings in the transonic speed regime. Modifications to the program include incorporation of a viscous boundary layer, modified coefficient and generalized force integration, direct input of airfoil surface coordinates and slopes, variable dimensions of computational arrays and a modified grid mapping transformation to improve computational stability for highly swept and tapered planforms. Results obtained with the modified program are included. Modifications discussed but not incorporated include a state matrix integration method, enhanced vectorization, and use of a cartesian physical mesh.

Borland, C. J.↗

Distributed Relaxation Multigrid and Defect Correction Applied to the Compressible Navier-Stokes Equations

The distributed-relaxation multigrid and defect- correction methods are applied to the two- dimensional compressible Navier-Stokes equations. The formulation is intended for high Reynolds number applications and several applications are made at a laminar Reynolds number of 10,000. A staggered- grid arrangement of variables is used; the coupled pressure and internal energy equations are solved together with multigrid, requiring a block 2x2 matrix solution. Textbook multigrid efficiencies are attained for incompressible and slightly compressible simulations of the boundary layer on a flat plate. Textbook efficiencies are obtained for compressible simulations up to Mach numbers of 0.7 for a viscous wake simulation.

Thomas, J. L.↗

Effect of the Grell-Freitas Deep Convection Scheme in Quasi-Uniform and Variable-Resolution Aquaplanet CAM Simulations

The Grell-Freitas deep convection scheme (GF) has been implemented in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the nonhydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) dynamical core. Aquaplanet simulations have been performed with a global quasi-uniform resolution mesh with ~120 km grid spacing and a variable resolution mesh employing a circular refined region with ~30 km grid spacing centering at the equator and ~120 km elsewhere. GF produces overall patterns of the general circulations comparable to those of other aquaplanet experiments, including those produced using the default Zhang-McFarlane convection scheme (ZM) in CAM Version 5.4. GF alleviates the overestimated occurrence of weak intensity precipitation characteristic of ZM due to GF’s different closure methods and deep-convection trigger conditions. Compared to ZM, the GF characteristics of the equatorial Kelvin waves are closer to observations. GF also better simulates precipitation at variable resolution, with no unrealistic wave distortion by the refinement. Overall, GF shows less sensitivity of convective precipitation and heating/moistening tendencies to changes in horizontal resolution compared to ZM. However, vertically-overlapped total cloud fraction simulated with GF in the tropics is more sensitive to the resolution than ZM due to the larger resolution-sensitivity of high-level cloud fraction in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient Gradient-Based Shape Optimization Methodology Using Inviscid/Viscous CFD

The formerly developed preconditioned-biconjugate-gradient (PBCG) solvers for the analysis and the sensitivity equations had resulted in very large error reductions per iteration; quadratic convergence was achieved whenever the solution entered the domain of attraction to the root. Its memory requirement was also lower as compared to a direct inversion solver. However, this memory requirement was high enough to preclude the realistic, high grid-density design of a practical 3D geometry. This limitation served as the impetus to the first-year activity (March 9, 1995 to March 8, 1996). Therefore, the major activity for this period was the development of the low-memory methodology for the discrete-sensitivity-based shape optimization. This was accomplished by solving all the resulting sets of equations using an alternating-direction-implicit (ADI) approach. The results indicated that shape optimization problems which required large numbers of grid points could be resolved with a gradient-based approach. Therefore, to better utilize the computational resources, it was recommended that a number of coarse grid cases, using the PBCG method, should initially be conducted to better define the optimization problem and the design space, and obtain an improved initial shape. Subsequently, a fine grid shape optimization, which necessitates using the ADI method, should be conducted to accurately obtain the final optimized shape. The other activity during this period was the interaction with the members of the Aerodynamic and Aeroacoustic Methods Branch of Langley Research Center during one stage of their investigation to develop an adjoint-variable sensitivity method using the viscous flow equations. This method had algorithmic similarities to the variational sensitivity methods and the control-theory approach. However, unlike the prior studies, it was considered for the three-dimensional, viscous flow equations. The major accomplishment in the second period of this project (March 9, 1996 to March 8, 1997) was the extension of the shape optimization methodology for the Thin-Layer Navier-Stokes equations. Both the Euler-based and the TLNS-based analyses compared with the analyses obtained using the CFL3D code. The sensitivities, again from both levels of the flow equations, also compared very well with the finite-differenced sensitivities. A fairly large set of shape optimization cases were conducted to study a number of issues previously not well understood. The testbed for these cases was the shaping of an arrow wing in Mach 2.4 flow. All the final shapes, obtained either from a coarse-grid-based or a fine-grid-based optimization, using either a Euler-based or a TLNS-based analysis, were all re-analyzed using a fine-grid, TLNS solution for their function evaluations. This allowed for a more fair comparison of their relative merits. From the aerodynamic performance standpoint, the fine-grid TLNS-based optimization produced the best shape, and the fine-grid Euler-based optimization produced the lowest cruise efficiency.

Baysal, Oktay↗

How do modeling decisions affect the spread among hydrologic climate change projections? Exploring a large ensemble of simulations across a diversity of hydroclimates

Methodological choices can have strong effects on projections of climate change impacts on hydrology. In this study, we investigate the ways in which four different steps in the modeling chain influence the spread in projected changes of different aspects of hydrology. To form the basis of these analyses, we constructed an ensemble of 160 simulations from permutations of two Representative Concentration Pathways, 10 global climate models, two downscaling methods, and four hydrologic model implementations. The study is situated in the Pacific Northwest of North America, which has relevance to a diverse, multinational cast of stakeholders. We analyze the effects of each modeling decision on changes in gridded hydrologic variables of snow water equivalent and runoff, as well as streamflow at point locations. Results show that the choice of representative concentration pathway or global climate model is the driving contributor to the spread in annual streamflow volume and timing. On the other hand, hydrologic model implementation explains most of the spread in changes in low flows. Finally, by grouping the results by climate region the results have the potential to be generalized beyond the Pacific Northwest. Future hydrologic impact assessments can use these results to better tailor their modeling efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗