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NASA NTRS2021

Placing the East-West North American Aridity Gradient in a Multi-Century Context

Instrumental records indicate a century-long trend towards drying over western North America and wetting over eastern North America. A continuation of these trends into the future would have significant hydroclimatic and socioeconomic consequences in both the semi-arid Southwest and humid East. Using tree-ring reconstructions and hydrologic simulations of summer soil moisture, we evaluate and contextualize the modern summer aridity gradient within its natural range of variability established over the past 600 years and evaluate the effects of observed and anthropogenic precipitation, temperature, and humidity trends. The 2001–2020 positive (wet east-dry west) aridity gradient was larger than any 20-year period since 1400 CE, preceded by the most negative (wet west-dry east) aridity gradient during 1976-1995, leading to a strong multi-decade reversal in aridity gradient anomalies that was rivaled only by a similar event in the late-16th century. The 2001-2020 aridity gradient was dominated by long-term summer precipitation increases in the Midwest and Northeast, with smaller contributions from more warming in the West than the East and spring precipitation decreases in the Southwest. Multi-model mean climate simulations from CMIP6 experiments suggest anthropogenic climate trends should not have strongly affected the aridity gradient thus far. However, there is high uncertainty due to inter-model disagreement on anthropogenic precipitation trends. The recent strengthening of the observed aridity gradient, its increasing dependence on precipitation variability, and disagreement in modeled anthropogenic precipitation trends reveal significant uncertainties in how water resource availability will change across North America in the coming decades.

drought↗

NASA NTRS2026

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Properties and Processes

Although sea ice covers ~9% of the world’s oceans, its presence, and absence, vastly alter the energetic balance of Earth’s climate. Because of geographic differences, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have different dominant properties and processes, which produce different responses to natural variability and anthropogenic change. In this Review, we survey changes in sea-ice properties and processes of the Arctic and Antarctic environments. In the Arctic, the melt season has lengthened by ~7.4 days decade −1 (1979-2024). There has been a corresponding decrease in winter sea-ice thickness (1.6 m mean total over 1980-2023), summer surface albedo (0.03 decade −1 over 1979-2020), and spring snow depth (2.5 cm decade −1 over 1954-2024). In comparison, corresponding changes in the Antarctic are small overall due to contrasting regional and temporal trends. From a dynamic perspective, sea-ice motion in both hemispheres has increased, with 0.63 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Arctic (1978-2024) and 0.69 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Antarctic (1982-2024), whereas trends in polynya occurrence differ by region. Future research should prioritize sea-ice observations that can inform how the climate system responds to natural variability and anthropogenic change, be standardized to increase uptake by the broader scientific community, and target process-oriented interactions to support model development.

Melinda A Webster↗

NASA NTRS1985

Variable force, eddy-current or magnetic damper

An object of the invention is to provide variable damping for resonant vibrations which may occur at different rotational speeds in the range of rpms in which a rotating machine is operated. A variable force damper in accordance with the invention includes a rotating mass carried on a shaft which is supported by a bearing in a resilient cage. The cage is attached to a support plate whose rim extends into an annular groove in a housing. Variable damping is effected by tabs of electrically conducting nonmagnetic material which extend radially from the cage. The tabs at an index position lie between the pole face of respective C shaped magnets. The magnets are attached by cantilever spring members to the housing.

Cunningham, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The 2002 Antarctic Ozone Hole

Since 1979, the ozone hole has grown from near zero size to over 24 Million km2. This area is most strongly controlled by levels of inorganic chlorine and bromine oncentrations. In addition, dynamical variations modulate the size of the ozone hole by either cooling or warming the polar vortex collar region. We will review the size observations, the size trends, and the interannual variability of the size. Using a simple trajectory model, we will demonstrate the sensitivity of the ozone hole to dynamical forcing, and we will use these observations to discuss the size of the ozone hole during the 2002 Austral spring. We will further show how the Cly decreases in the stratosphere will cause the ozone hole to decrease by 1-1.5% per year. We will also show results from a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) that has been continuously run since 1999. These CTM results directly show how strong dynamics acts to reduce the size of the ozone hole.

Newman, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Successes, Problems and Prospects

After two decades of active research, a much better understanding of the broader role of biospheric processes on the local climate has emerged. A surface-albedo increase, particularly in desert border regions of the subtropics (as well as the deforested tropical regions), leads to a net surface energy deficit, which in turn leads to a relative sinking and reduced rainfall. On the other hand, studies of the influence of altered ratios of evapotranspiration and sensible fluxes, in situations where the net solar income is unchanged, show that evapotranspiration is a more desirable flux for increased precipitation and vitality of the biosphere. Besides providing water vapor and convective available potential energy (CAPE) to the lower troposphere, evapotranspiration helps in building larger CAPE before "turning on" the moist-convection. Larger CAPE in the lower troposphere enables convection to reach into the deeper atmosphere thereby heating the upper troposphere; indeed, moist-convection is also accompanied by the evaporation of falling precipitation that cools and moistens the lower atmosphere. While convective, as opposed to stratiform, precipitation reduces the fractional cloud cover; it also allows more solar radiation to reach the surface thereby invigorating surface fluxes. These, together with moist convection and associated downdrafts help to maintain the characteristic upper temperature limit(s) of the moist-land as well as oceanic regions. Regardless of the above understanding, several important problems continue to hinder the accurate simulation of a realistic land atmosphere interaction in a numerical model (both GCM and/or Meso-scale models). Among the unsolved problems are parameterization of sub-grid scale land processes that include small-scale variability of soil moisture, snow-cover and snow-physics, the biodiversity of the biosphere, orography, local drainage characteristics under natural conditions, and surface flow over the natural terrain. A well-known non-linear response of surface fluxes to these variations makes the problem of parameterizing land-atmosphere interaction processes hard-to-address and simulate, particularly in a GCM. In our presentation, we will discuss how orographic, snow-cover, and water table interactions can be included into a Simple Biosphere Model such as SiB/SSiB. Figure I shows how, in the Russian region, spring snowmelt affects the soil moisture profile. Corresponding figure 2 shows how interaction with the water table decreases the natural evapotranspiration in the Sahel region simulation. While these simulations need better validation with data, the simulations reveal that surface processes are sensitive to these parameterizations. With these developments, we continue to advance our understanding of the interaction of land with the atmosphere aloft, but the intrinsic variability of the newer parameters, e. g., hydraulic properties of the soil, diminish the positive influences of these advances on the improved climate simulation with GCMs.

Sud, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

On the Origin of Polar Vortex Air

The existence of the multi-year HALOE CH4 data set, together with some comparisons of forward with back trajectory calculations which we have carried out, has motivated us to reexamine the question of polar vortex descent. Three-dimensional diabatic trajectory calculations have been carried out for the seven month fall to spring period in both the northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) polar stratosphere for the years 1992-1999. These computations are compared to fixed descent computations where the parcels were fixed at their latitude-longitude locations and allowed to descend without circulating. The forward trajectory computed descent is always less than the fixed descent due to horizontal parcel motions and variations in heating rates with latitude and longitude. Although the forward calculations estimate the maximum amount of descent that can occur, they do not necessarily indicate the actual origin of springtime vortex air. This is because more equator-ward air can be entrained within the vortex during its formation. To examine the origin of the springtime vortex air, the trajectory model was run backward for seven months from spring to fall. The back trajectories show a complex distribution of parcels in which one population originates in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere and experiences considerable descent in the polar regions, while the remaining parcels originate at lower altitudes of the middle and lower stratosphere and are mixed into the polar regions during vortex formation without experiencing as much vertical transport. The amount of descent experienced by the first population shows little variability from year to year, while the computed descent and mixing of the remaining parcels show considerable interannual variability due to the varying polar meteorology. Because of this complex parcel distribution it is not meaningful to speak of a net amount of descent experienced over the entire winter period. Since the back trajectories indicate that much of the air can come from lower altitudes than would be implied by the forward calculations, using a comparison between pre-winter and post-winter tracer profiles to estimate the amount of descent over this period will give erroneous descent amounts. In order to evaluate the computed descent, spring methane amounts were computed by mapping HALOE fall observations onto the final latitude-altitude locations of the back trajectories. These locations indicate the origin of the spring vortex air. The agreement between the computed means and the spring HALOE means is generally within 0.1-0.2 ppmv in the NH and 0.1-0.4 ppmv in the SH.

Rosenfield, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Comparison of CEAS and Williams-type models for spring wheat yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

The CEAS and Williams-type yield models are both based on multiple regression analysis of historical time series data at CRD level. The CEAS model develops a separate relation for each CRD; the Williams-type model pools CRD data to regional level (groups of similar CRDs). Basic variables considered in the analyses are USDA yield, monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, and variables derived from these. The Williams-type model also used soil texture and topographic information. Technological trend is represented in both by piecewise linear functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test of each model (1970-1979) demonstrate that the models are very similar in performance in all respects. Both models are about equally objective, adequate, timely, simple, and inexpensive. Both consider scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail. Neither provides a good current measure of modeled yield reliability. The CEAS model is considered very slightly preferable for AgRISTARS applications.

Barnett, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Climate Variability and Impact at NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center

Climate analysis for the Southeast U. S. has indicated that inland regions have experienced an average temperature increase of 2F since 1970. This trend is generally characterized by warmer winters with an indication of increased precipitation in the Fall season. Extended periods of limited rainfall in the Spring and Summer periods have had greater areal coverage and, at other times the number of precipitation events has been increasing. Climate model projections for the next 10-70 years indicate warmer temperatures for the Southeast U.S., particularly in the Spring and Summer, with some indication of more extremes in temperature and precipitation as shown in the table below. The realization of these types of regional climate changes in the form of extended heat waves and droughts and their subsequent stress on facilities, infrastructure, and workforce could have substantial impact on the activities and functions of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. This presentation will present the results of an examination of the 100 year temperature and precipitation record for MSFC. Local warming has cause an increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures by nearly 3F, with a substantial increase in the number of maximum temperatures exceeding 90F and a decrease in the number of days with minimum temperatures below freezing. These trends have substantial impact of the number of heating / cooling degree days for the area. Yearly precipitation totals are inversely correlated with the change in mean temperature and the frequency of heavy rain events has remain consistent with the changes in yearly totals. An extended heat wave index was developed which shows an increase in frequency of heat waves over the last 35 years and a subsequent reduction in precipitation during the heat waves. This trend will contribute to more intense drought conditions over the northern Alabama region, increasing the potential of destructive wildfires in and around the Center. MSFC has begun using this climate change information to adapt short-term and long-term plans for Center operations.

Smoot, James L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?

A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. GAPP region in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectivity of snow is the most important process by which snow cover can impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo, effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger. The results to date were obtained for model runs with present-day conditions. We are currently analyzing runs made with projected forcings for the 21st century to see if these results are modified in any way under likely scenarios of future climate change.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?

A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectively of snow is the most important process by which snow cover cart impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Land Carbon Uptake in Northern Mid- and High Latitudes

Here we present a first look at the Gross Primary Production (GPP) forecast skill levels achievable with a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast system. Using NASA’s retrospective S2S ensemble forecast in conjunction with a terrestrial biosphere model, and using an independent, remote sensing-based dataset for validation, we demonstrate an ability to accurately forecast spring-summer carbon uptake at multi-month leads. Averaged across mid-and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere land, the GPP forecast initialized on January 1 produces statistically significant skill through summer. The skill achieved, however, is spatially variable, with some regions appearing to extract skill from accurate forecasts of snowpack removal and others extracting skill from the initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Our results reveal some heretofore unexplored facets of climate predictability and provide a look at what might be possible with future S2S forecast systems that are fully integrated with biogeochemical cycles.

Eunjee Lee↗

NASA NTRS1998

Surface-Wind Anomalies in North-Atlantic and North Pacific from SSM/I Observations: Influence on Temperature of Adjoining Land Regions

Surface winds over the oceans are derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) measurements, assigning direction by Variational Analysis Method (VAM). Validations by comparison with other measurements indicate highly-satisfactory data quality. Providing global coverage from 1988, the dataset is a convenient source for surface-wind climatology. In this study, the interannual variability of zonal winds is analyzed concentrating on the westerlies in North Atlantic and North Pacific, above 30 N. Interannual differences in the westerlies exceeding 10 m sec (exp -1) are observed over large regions, often accompanied by changes of the same magnitude in the easterlies below 30 N. We concentrate on February/March, since elevated temperatures, by advancing snow-melt, can produce early spring. The extremely strong westerlies in 1997 observed in these months over North Atlantic (and also North Pacific) apparently contributed to large surface-temperature anomalies in western Europe, on the order of +3 C above the climatic monthly average for England and France. At these latitudes strong positive anomalies extended in a ring around the globe. We formulated an Index of South westerlies for the North Atlantic, which can serve as an indicator for day-by-day advection effects into Europe. In comparing 1997 and 1998 with the previous years, we establish significant correlations with the temperature anomalies (one to five days later, depending on the region, and on the season). This variability of the ocean-surface winds and of the temperature anomalies on land may be related to the El Nino/La Nina oscillations. Such large temperature fluctuations over large areas, whatever the cause, can be regarded as noise in attempts to assess long-term trends in global temperature.

Otterman, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS1978

Development of a winter wheat adjustable crop calendar model

The author has identified the following significant results. After parameter estimation, tests were conducted with variances from the fits, and on independent data. From these tests, it was generally concluded that exponential functions have little advantage over polynomials. Precipitation was not found to significantly affect the fits. The Robertson's triquadratic form, in general use for spring wheat, was found to show promise for winter wheat, but special techniques and care were required for its use. In most instances, equations with nonlinear effects were found to yield erratic results when utilized with daily environmental values as independent variables.

Baker, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Infrared imaging of Mars for volatile distribution and seasonal variability between 2.4 and 5.1 microns

Recent advances in ground-based infrared imaging now allow for sub-arc second spectral imaging. Data collected at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility using protocam, a 62 x 58 InSb array camera with a circular variable filter and a plate scale 0.2 arc-seconds/pixel, are discussed. These images are a first attempt at extended seasonal infrared coverage of Mars to look for seasonal variations. Currently, data collected in Jun. 1990 at Ls = 241 (southern spring) and in Jan. 1991 Ls = 360 (late southern summer) are being reduced and analyzed. The 3 micron bound water band is the strongest surface absorption feature on Mars in the infrared. Infrared spectroscopy can also be useful in the detection of ice and frost deposits, especially in the polar regions. While imaging and spectroscopy at visible wavelengths allows for the detection of condensates, infrared information is needed to distinguish between water and CO2 ice/frost deposits. In the Jun. images, the southern polar cap totally disappears in the 3.4 micron CO2 frost band and is bright in the 3.1 micron water ice band, indicating that water ice is not a detectable component of the southern polar cap at this season. Further investigations are currently under way to look for residual water ice after the disappearance of the seasonal south polar cap in the Jan. images. The Jun. images that were focused on had a sub-earth point located at 184 longitude, and 23.8 S latitude which put the center of the disk in the southern highland region between Elysium and Amazonis. Examination of the Jun. images show that there are four surface units identifiable: a CO2 frost deposit, a northern plains unit, an equatorial unit, and a southern highland unit. At this resolution there does not appear to be any latitudinal variations in the 3 micron band that is independent of the 2.4 micron albedo features. The northern planes unit and the southern highland unit have very similar 'color' in the three micron band as demonstrated by the rise out of the band, but different brightness levels. The equatorial unit has a distinct three micron color implying a compositional difference. The albedo features at 2.4 microns have decreased contrast at longer wavelengths, till they are unrecognizable at 4 microns.

Blaney, Diana L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Page turning system

A device for holding reading materials for use by readers without arm mobility is presented. The device is adapted to hold the reading materials in position for reading with the pages displayed to enable turning by use of a rubber tipped stick that is held in the mouth and has a pair of rectangular frames. The frames are for holding and positioning the reading materials opened in reading posture with the pages displayed at a substantially unobstructed sighting position for reading. The pair of rectangular frames are connected to one another by a hinge so the angle between the frames may be varied thereby varying the inclination of the reading material. A pair of bent spring mounted wires for holding opposing pages of the reading material open for reading without substantial visual interference of the pages is mounted to the base. The wires are also adjustable to the thickness of the reading material and have a variable friction adjustment. This enables the force of the wires against the pages to be varied and permits the reader to manipulate the pages with the stick.

Kerley, James J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Remote sensing of phytoplankton density and diversity in Narragansett Bay using an airborne fluorosensor

An aircraft-borne remote system is presented that utilizes narrow-band light from multiple dye lasers to excite selected algae photopigments and then measures the resultant flourescence emitted from chlorophyll a at 685 nm. Tests were conducted with both pure and mixed cultures of marine algae from a series of field tests taken from piers and bridges of Narragansett Bay, and a prototype remote fluorosensor was flown over the Bay during the 1978 winter-spring diatom bloom. Remote fluorescence obtained at hover points over sea-truth stations showed correlations with in situ fluorescence, total chlorophyll a, and cell count. It was concluded that the ratio of remote fluorescence to direct chlorophyll a concentration was less variable than expected, and the distribution of total chlorophyll a between two major photoplankton color groups showed three distinct areas, within the Bay, of green and golden-brown species.

Farmer, F. H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Distribution of cultivated and uncultivated cyanobacteria and Chloroflexus-like bacteria in hot spring microbial mats

Oligodeoxynucleotide hybridization probes were developed to complement specific regions of the small subunit (SSU) rRNA sequences of cultivated and uncultivated cyanobacteria and Chloroflexus-like bacteria, which inhabit hot spring microbial mats. The probes were used to investigate the natural distribution of SSU rRNAs from these species in mats of Yellowstone hot springs of different temperatures and pHs as well as changes in SSU rRNA distribution resulting from 1-week in situ shifts in temperature, pH, and light intensity. Synechococcus lividus Y-7c-s SSU rRNA was detected only in the mat of a slightly acid spring, from which it may have been initially isolated, or when samples from a more alkaline spring were incubated in the more acid spring. Chloroflexus aurantiacus Y-400-fl SSU rRNA was detected only in a high-temperature mat sample from the alkaline Octopus Spring or when lower-temperature samples from this mat were incubated at the high-temperature site. SSU rRNAs of uncultivated species were more widely distributed. Temperature distributions and responses to in situ temperature shifts suggested that some of the uncultivated cyanobacteria might be adapted to high-, moderate-, and low-temperature ranges whereas an uncultivated Chloroflexus-like bacterium appears to have broad temperature tolerance. SSU rRNAs of all uncultivated species inhabiting a 48 to 51 degrees C Octopus Spring mat site were most abundant in the upper 1 mm and were not detected below a 2.5-to 3.5-mm depth, a finding consistent with their possible phototrophic nature. However, the effects of light intensity reduction on these SSU rRNAs were variable, indicating the difficulty of demonstrating a phototrophic phenotype in light reduction experiments.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2006

Large Engine Technology (LET) Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor Contingency Power Materials Knowledge and Lifing Methodologies

This report documents the results of an experimental program conducted on two advanced metallic alloy systems (Rene' 142 directionally solidified alloy (DS) and Rene' N6 single crystal alloy) and the characterization of two distinct internal state variable inelastic constitutive models. The long term objective of the study was to develop a computational life prediction methodology that can integrate the obtained material data. A specialized test matrix for characterizing advanced unified viscoplastic models was specified and conducted. This matrix included strain controlled tensile tests with intermittent relaxtion test with 2 hr hold times, constant stress creep tests, stepped creep tests, mixed creep and plasticity tests, cyclic temperature creep tests and tests in which temperature overloads were present to simulate actual operation conditions for validation of the models. The selected internal state variable models where shown to be capable of representing the material behavior exhibited by the experimental results; however the program ended prior to final validation of the models.

Spring, Samuel D.↗