Analysis of Satellite Observations for Longitudinal Variations of the Gravitational Field
Satellite observation of longitudinal variations of the gravitational field
GRAVITY↗
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Relative array analysis of upper mantle lateral velocity variations in Southern California
The many densely spaced stations of the Southern California Seismic Network, SCARLET, provide a unique opportunity to examine local variations in upper mantle velocities. By averaging the incoming teleseismic wavefronts over 100-km aperture subarrays, ray parameter dT/dDelta, azimuth, and average arrival time estimates were obtained for each event. These values are compared to whole array plane fit parameters with relative array diagrams and representations of net subarray delays. The conducted study confirms the existence of a high-velocity body at depth beneath the Transverse Ranges and a low-velocity region under the Salton Trough. An uppermost mantle anomaly beneath the San Bernardino Mountains is well established both by this study and from local data. The relation of this body to the deeper structure is investigated.
Walck, M. C.↗
Teleseismic array analysis of upper mantle compressional velocity structure
Relative array analysis of upper mantle lateral velocity variations in southern California, analysis techniques for dense data profiles, the P-wave upper mantle structure beneath an active spreading center: the Gulf of California, and the upper mantle under the Cascade ranges: a comparison with the Gulf of California are presented.
Walck, M. C.↗
Comparison of ozone data derived from SBUV and SAGE with emphasis on longitudinal variations
Stratospheric ozone observations performed by the SBAV and SAGE satellite instruments in March and April 1979 are analyzed and compared to other data, where available; in the absence of ground-truth data the experimental uncertainties are modeled by intercomparison of the measurements. The signal-to-noise ratios for the detectability of longitudinal variation in ozone are estimated for both SBUV and SAGE instruments. The analysis of longitudinal variation data reveals significant differences in amplitudes obtained in individual events in which rapid amplitude changes with height were present. Finally, a systematic overestimation of ozone by 20 percent by the SAGE instrument and underestimation by SBUV by about 15 percent at 50-70 latitudes at 10 mb is noted.
Cunnold, D.↗
The automation of optimization problems.
Digital simulation of boundary value problems of trajectory optimization, using variational and functional analysis and IBM-FORMAC language
FORTRAN↗
Measurement and Interpretation of Temporal Variations of the Earths Gravity Field Using GPS and SLR Data
This investigation has had four main thrusts: 1) The analysis of seasonal variations of the Earth's gravitational field using Lageos 1 and 2 SLR data and comparisons to geophysical models. We have estimated the annual variation of the gravity field via a spherical harmonic expansion complete to degree and order 4. We have also constructed a similar model using models of the annual variation in the gravity field due to atmospheric, hydrologic, and ocean mass redistribution. These three models, when combined together, are in excellent agreement with the variations observed by satellite laser ranging. An article on these results was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. 2) The second thrust of our investigation has been to analyze the output of a Global Climate Model (GCM) to determine if the GRACE gravity mission can be expected to detect climate change signals. Working with Gary Russell at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), we have determined that there are several large secular signals that GRACE might be able to detect, including secular changes in snow cover, sea ice, polar ice, ocean mass, and other variables. It is possible that some of these signals could be detected with 5 years of GRACE measurements - its hard to judge this because the interannual variability in the GCM, which could mask the climate signals, is unreliable. Certainly a follow-on GRACE mission could detect these signals when compared to the data from the initial GRACE mission.). An article on these results will be published in the journal Journal of Geophysical Research. 3) In the last year of the investigation, we developed a new technique for analyzing temporal gravity variations using "geophysical fingerprints", which was successfully demonstrated on 20 years of satellite laser ranging data [Nerem et al., 20031. 4]. We also participated in a workshop on future satellite gravity measurements, which resulted in paper on measuring ocean mass variations using GRACE [Nerem et al., 20031 and on using laser interferometry for future gravity missions [Bender et al., 20031].
Nerem, R. Steven↗
Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis
Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.
Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
Analysis of Polarized Dust Emission Using Data from the First Flight of SPIDER
Using data from the first flight of Spider and from the Planck High Frequency Instrument, we probe the properties of polarized emission from interstellar dust in the Spider observing region. Component-separation algorithms operating in both the spatial and harmonic domains are applied to probe their consistency and to quantify modeling errors associated with their assumptions. Analyses of diffuse Galactic dust emission spanning the full Spider region demonstrate (i) a spectral energy distribution that is broadly consistent with a modified-blackbody (MBB) model with a spectral index of β d = 1.45 ± 0.05 (1.47 ± 0.06) for E (B)-mode polarization, slightly lower than that reported by Planck for the full sky; (ii) an angular power spectrum broadly consistent with a power law; and (iii) no significant detection of line-of-sight polarization decorrelation. Tests of several modeling uncertainties find only a modest impact (~10% in σ r ) on Spider's sensitivity to the cosmological tensor-to-scalar ratio. The size of the Spider region further allows for a statistically meaningful analysis of the variation in foreground properties within it. Assuming a fixed dust temperature T d = 19.6 K, an analysis of two independent subregions of that field results in inferred values of β d = 1.52 ± 0.06 and β d = 1.09 ± 0.09, which are inconsistent at the 3.9σ level. Furthermore, a joint analysis of Spider and Planck 217 and 353 GHz data within one subregion is inconsistent with a simple MBB at more than 3σ, assuming a common morphology of polarized dust emission over the full range of frequencies. This evidence of variation may inform the component-separation approaches of future cosmic microwave background polarization experiments.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Evaluating the Stability of NASA's Space Launch System with Adaptive Augmenting Control
NASA's baseline Space Launch System (SLS) flight control system (FCS) design includes an adaptive augmenting control (AAC) component that modifies the attitude control system response to provide the classical gain-scheduled control architecture with additional performance and robustness. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) teamed with the Space Launch System (SLS) Program to perform a comprehensive assessment of the stability and robustness of the FCS with AAC. This paper provides an overview of the approach, specific analysis techniques, and outcomes that were particularly relevant for the SLS Program. Multiple analysis techniques that specifically target the nonlinear AAC were commissioned as part of this assessment, which was completed outside of the Program's standard design analysis cycle. The following analyses were included, with each technique adding its own valuable insights: Lyapunov-based stability analysis, classical stability analysis with static AAC gain variations, circle criterion-based analysis of the FCS with a time-varying element, time-domain stability margin assessment, Monte Carlo simulations with expanded dispersions, and an extensive set of stressing cases. Several of the completed analyses focused on determining whether the inclusion of AAC introduced risk to the FCS, while others quantified the benefits of the adaptive augmentation.
Tannen S Vanzwieten↗
Global Monthly and Daily Precipitation Analysis for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP): Global and Regional Variations and Trends
The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis are described in terms of the data sets and analysis techniques used in their preparation. These analyses are then used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations are also compared with the GPCP analyses and are evaluated with regard to improving the long-term GPCP data set.
Adler, Robert F.↗
An evaluation of air quality in major urban areas of India
Rapid economic growth and burgeoning population have contributed to enhanced levels of PM 2.5 concentrations in urban regions of India. Evaluation of ambient air quality facilitates the assessment of effectiveness of emission control measures and early identification of new sources. This study provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of PM 2.5 concentrations in key urban areas across India, including Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, and several regional centers. Data from 2017 to 2023 was analyzed using trend analysis, cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and geostatistical interpolation to understand spatiotemporal variations and sources. The analysis reveals significant differences in spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations with high annual averages in urban regions in Indo-Gangetic plain (82–123 μg m −3 ) and relatively lower concentrations (29–46 μg m −3 ) in southern urban areas of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Delhi state had the highest 24-averaged PM 2.5 concentrations (112 μg m −3 ) followed by urban regions in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal (94 μg m −3 ). Trend analysis from 2017 to 2023 revealed an overall 2.5% decline in site-wide PM2.5 concentrations, with the exception of Ludhiana, which exhibited a consistent annual increase of 10%. Principal component analysis (PCA) attributes 30% of the variance to wintertime emissions, 13% to biomass burning, and 18% to the regional haze in the northern Indo-Gangetic Plain. Different analyses clearly demonstrates the contribution of biomass burning to pollution in Delhi and surrounding cities. Transboundary pollution to Kolkata is likely from the highly polluted region in Indo-Gangetic Plain. Coastal cities of Mumbai and Chennai has relatively lower pollution attributed to the influence of sea breeze dilution, with mostly local contribution and some potential transport from upwind industry clusters. Hyderabad also has local contribution due to high density of vehicular traffic and local small industries. This study shows that mitigation efforts targeting clusters of regions should be undertaken to curb the high PM2.5 pollution. Policy measures should be implemented both at local and the intra-state level to address shared sources and transport of pollution.
Hysplitbacktrajectories↗
Magnetic dips in the solar wind
Using magnetic data from the HELIOS 1 fluxgate magnetometer, with a 0.2 sec resolution, the structures of several interplanetary discontinuities involving magnetic dips and rotations of the magnetic field vector were investigated. A minimum variance analysis illustrates the behavior of the magnetic field through the transition in the plane of its maximum variation. Using this analysis, quite different structures have been individuated and, in particular, narrow transitions resembling almost one dimensional reconnected neutral sheets. For the thinner cases (scale lengths of the magnetic rotation of the order or smaller than 1,000 km), results show the observed structures could be the nonlinear effect of a resistive tearing mode instability having developed on an originally one dimensional neutral sheet at the solar corona.
Dobrowolny, M.↗
Comparisons of predicted and measured rotor performance in hover using a new free wake analysis
A new free-wake analysis has been developed to predict the performance of rotors in hover and axial flight. The analysis finds the rotor wake geometry using a novel influence coefficient/relaxation scheme. In this paper, the features of the analysis are reviewed, and the accuracy of the analysis is assessed for a wide range of rotor configurations in hover and vertical climb. The effects of variations in the analysis parameters are addressed, and recommendations for future development are presented. Generally good results were obtained for the predicted performance of a wide range of rotor geometries and operating conditions without any special 'tuning' of the analysis. The analysis also provides predictions of rotor performance in vertical climb that are substantially more accurate than momentum theory.
Felker, Fort F.↗
Stochastic robustness of linear control systems
A simple numerical procedure for estimating the stochastic robustness of a linear, time-invariant system is described. Monte Carlo evaluation of the system's eigenvalues allows the probability of instability and the related stochastic root locus to be estimated. This definition of robustness is an alternative to existing deterministic definitions that address both structured and unstructured parameter variations directly. This analysis approach treats not only Gaussian parameter uncertainties but non-Gaussian cases, including uncertain-but-bounded variations. Trivial extensions of the procedure admit alternate discriminants to be considered. Thus, the probabilities that stipulated degrees of instability will be exceeded or that closed-loop roots will leave desirable regions also can be estimated. Results are particularly amenable to graphical presentation.
Stengel, Robert F.↗
Variability of accretion disks surrounding black holes: The role of inertial-acoustic mode instabilities
The global nonlinear time-dependent evolution of the inertial-acoustic mode instability in accretion disks surrounding black holes has been investigated. The viscous stress is assumed to be proportional to the gas pressure only, i.e., tau = alphap(sub g). It is found that an oscillatory nonsteady behavior exists in the inner regions of disks (r is less than 10r(sub g) where r(sub g) is the Schwarzschild radius) for sufficiently large alpha(greater than or approximately equal to 0.2) and for mass accretion rates less than about 0.3 times the Eddington value. The variations of the integrated bolometric luminosity from the disk, Delta L/L, are less than 3%. A power spectrum analysis of these variations reveals a power spectrum which can be fitted to a power-law function of the frequency Pis proportional to f(exp -gamma), with index gamma = 1.4-2.3 and a low-frequency feature at about 4 Hz in one case. In addition, a narrow peak centered at a frequency corresponding to the maximum epicyclic frequency of the disk at approximately 100-130 Hz and its first harmonic is also seen. The low-frequency modulations are remarkably similar to those observed in black hole candidate systems. The possible existence of a scattering corona in the inner region of the disk and/or other processes contributing to the power at high frequencies in the inner region of the accretion disk may make the detection of the high-frequency component difficult.
Chen, Xingming↗
Stochastic robustness of linear time-invariant control systems
A simple numerical procedure for estimating the stochastic robustness of a linear, time-invariant system is described. Monte Carlo evaluation of the system's eigenvalues allows the probability of instability and the related stochastic root locus to be estimated. This definition of robustness is an alternative to existing deterministic definitions that address both structured and unstructured parameter variations directly. This analysis approach treats not only Gaussian parameter uncertainties but also non-Gaussian cases, including uncertain-but-bounded variations. Trivial extensions of the procedure permit alternate discriminants to be considered. Thus the probabilities that stipulated degrees of instability will be exceeded or that closed-loop roots will leave desirable regions can also be estimated. Results are particularly amenable to graphical presentation.
Stengel, Robert F.↗
Secular Variation Across the Oceans: a Retrospective Study from 35 Years of Shipboard Total Field Measurements in the NE Atlantic
This is a pilot study to determine whether secular variation information can be retrieved from underway shipboard total field measurements with sufficient accuracy to complement geomagnetic data from land-based observatories. Applying the various new techniques described in this report, we extracted values of the total field at 42,677 crossovers or ship track intersection points contained in data sets collected between 18 degrees N and 50 degress N in the NE Atlantic, and extending temporally from 1955 to 1990. We used an edited subset of these total field values to derive the secular variation at 30,140 different locations in the study area, and compared the results with DGRF secular variation over the study area, calculated at 5 year intervals. The derived and DGRF values agree well, showing that indeed marine data can be a source for secular variations. However the analysis demonstrated that due to inherent noise in the marine data, only minor improvements on the DGRF values for the secular variation can be achieved.
Williams, C. A.↗
The DESI Y1 RR Lyrae catalog I: Empirical modeling of the cyclic variation of spectroscopic properties and a chemodynamical analysis of the outer halo
We present the catalog of RR Lyrae stars observed in the first year of operations of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. This catalog contains 6,240 RR Lyrae stars out to $\sim100$ kpc from the Galactic center and over 12,000 individual epochs with homogeneously-derived stellar atmospheric parameters. We introduce a novel methodology to model the cyclical variation of the spectroscopic properties of RR Lyrae from single-epoch measurements. We employ this method to infer the radial velocity and effective temperature variation of fundamental mode and first-overtone RR Lyrae stars and to determine their systemic velocities and mean temperatures. For fundamental mode pulsators, we obtain radial velocity curves with amplitudes of $\sim$30--50 km s$^{-1}$ and effective temperature curves with 300--1,000 K variations, whereas for first-overtone pulsators these amplitudes are $\sim20$ km s$^{-1}$ and $\sim 600$ K, respectively. We use our sample to study the metallicity distribution of the halo and its dependence on Galactocentric distance ($R_{\rm GC}$). Using a radius-dependent mixture model, we split the data into chemodynamically distinct components and find that our inner halo sample ($R_{\rm GC}\lesssim50$ kpc) is predominantly composed of stars with [Fe/H] $\sim-1.5$ dex and largely radial orbits (with an anisotropy parameter $\beta\sim0.94$), that we associate with the Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus merger event. Stars in the outer halo field exhibit a broader and more metal-poor [Fe/H] distribution with more circular orbits ($\beta\sim0.39$). The metallicity gradient of the metal-rich and the metal-poor components is found to be $0.005$ and $0.010$ dex kpc$^{-1}$, respectively. Our catalog highlights DESI's tantalizing potential for studying the Milky Way and the pulsation properties of RR Lyrae stars in the era of large spectroscopic surveys.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗