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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate change and federal aid disbursements after Hurricane Harvey: an extreme event attribution analysis

The role climate change plays in increasing the burden placed on governments and insurers to pay for recovery has not been extensively explored and is the focus of this study. This study examines the impacts of climate change attributed flooding on federal disaster aid disbursement in Harris County, Texas following Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Our approach uses flood models to estimate the amount of flood damages attributable and not attributable to climate change under two climate change attribution scenarios from peer reviewed studies: 20% and 38% increases in rainfall associated with the hurricane due to climate change. These estimates are combined with census tract-level disbursement data for FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the Individual Assistance (IA) part of the Individuals and Households Program. We employ spatial lag regression models with direct and spatial spillover effects to analyze the relationship between a tract’s flood damages—both attributed and not attributed to climate change—and federal disaster aid. We find that both types of flood damage shape federal aid disbursements, but that climate change attributed damages tend to have larger effect sizes (elasticities) especially for IA. Specifically, for a 1% increase in additional climate change attributed damages per household in a census tract (under the 20% scenario), expected NFIP levels in that census tract are 0.26% higher and IA levels are 0.3% higher. Implications center on federal funding in an era of climate change.

FEMA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergency department visits in California associated with wildfire PM 2.5 : differing risk across individuals and communities

The threats to human health from wildfires and wildfire smoke (WFS) in the United States (US) are increasing due to continued climate change. A growing body of literature has documented important adverse health effects of WFS exposure, but there is insufficient evidence regarding how risk related to WFS exposure varies across individual or community level characteristics. To address this evidence gap, we utilized a large nationwide database of healthcare utilization claims for emergency department (ED) visits in California across multiple wildfire seasons (May through November, 2012–2019) and quantified the health impacts of fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) air pollution attributable to WFS, overall and among subgroups of the population. We aggregated daily counts of ED visits to the level of the Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) and used a time-stratified case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the association between WFS and relative risk of ED visits. We further assessed how the association with WFS varied across subgroups defined by age, race, social vulnerability, and residential air conditioning (AC) prevalence. Over a 7 day period, PM 2.5 from WFS was associated with elevated risk of ED visits for all causes (1.04% (0.32%, 1.71%)), non-accidental causes (2.93% (2.16%, 3.70%)), and respiratory disease (15.17% (12.86%, 17.52%)), but not with ED visits for cardiovascular diseases (1.06% (–1.88%, 4.08%)). Analysis across subgroups revealed potential differences in susceptibility by age, race, and AC prevalence, but not across subgroups defined by ZCTA-level Social Vulnerability Index scores. These results suggest that PM 2.5 from WFS is associated with higher rates of all cause, non-accidental, and respiratory ED visits with important heterogeneity across certain subgroups. Notably, lower availability of residential AC was associated with higher health risks related to wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MIBiG 4.0: advancing biosynthetic gene cluster curation through global collaboration

Specialized or secondary metabolites are small molecules of biological origin, often showing potent biological activities with applications in agriculture, engineering and medicine. Usually, the biosynthesis of these natural products is governed by sets of co-regulated and physically clustered genes known as biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs). To share information about BGCs in a standardized and machine-readable way, the Minimum Information about a Biosynthetic Gene cluster (MIBiG) data standard and repository was initiated in 2015. Since its conception, MIBiG has been regularly updated to expand data coverage and remain up to date with innovations in natural product research. Here, we describe MIBiG version 4.0, an extensive update to the data repository and the underlying data standard. In a massive community annotation effort, 267 contributors performed 8304 edits, creating 557 new entries and modifying 590 existing entries, resulting in a new total of 3059 curated entries in MIBiG. Particular attention was paid to ensuring high data quality, with automated data validation using a newly developed custom submission portal prototype, paired with a novel peer-reviewing model. MIBiG 4.0 also takes steps towards a rolling release model and a broader involvement of the scientific community. MIBiG 4.0 is accessible online at https://mibig.secondarymetabolites.org/.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inequality in the availability of residential air conditioning across 115 US metropolitan areas

Continued climate change is increasing the frequency, severity, and duration of populations’ high temperature exposures. Indoor cooling is a key adaptation, especially in urban areas, where heat extremes are intensified—the urban heat island effect (UHI)—making residential air conditioning (AC) availability critical to protecting human health. In the United States, the differences in residential AC prevalence from one metropolitan area to another is well understood, but its intra-urban variation is poorly characterized, obscuring neighborhood-scale variability in populations’ heat vulnerability and adaptive capacity. We address this gap by constructing empirically derived probabilities of residential AC for 45,995 census tracts across 115 metropolitan areas. Within cities, AC is unequally distributed, with census tracts in the urban “core” exhibiting systematically lower prevalence than their suburban counterparts. Moreover, this disparity correlates strongly with multiple indicators of social vulnerability and summer daytime surface UHI intensity, highlighting the challenges that vulnerable urban populations face in adapting to climate-change driven heat stress amplification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalizability of heat-related health risk associations observed in a large healthcare claims database of patients with commercial health insurance

Extreme ambient heat is unambiguously associated with higher risk of illness and death. The Optum Labs Data Warehouse (OLDW), a database of medical claims from US-based patients with commercial or Medicare Advantage health insurance, has been used to quantify heat-related health impacts. Whether results for the insured sub-population are generalizable to the broader population has to our knowledge not been documented. We sought to address this question, for the US population in California from 2012 to 2019. We examined changes in daily rates of emergency department (ED) encounters and in-patient hospitalization encounters for all-causes, heat-related outcomes, renal disease, mental/behavioral disorders, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. OLDW was the source for health data for insured individuals in California, and health data for the broader population were gathered from the California Department of Health Care Access and Information (HCAI). We defined extreme heat exposure as any day in a group of 2 or more days with maximum temperatures exceeding the county-specific 97.5 th percentile and used a space-time-stratified case–crossover design to assess and compare the impacts of heat on health. Average incidence rates of medical encounters differed by dataset. However, rate ratios for ED encounters were similar across datasets for all causes (ratio of incidence rate ratios (rIRR) = 0.989; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.973, 1.011), heat-related causes (rIRR = 1.080; 95% CI = 0.999, 1.168), renal disease (rIRR = 0.963; 95% CI = 0.718, 1.292), and mental health disorders (rIRR = 1.098; 95% CI = 1.004, 1.201). Rate ratios for inpatient encounters were also similar. This work presents evidence that OLDW can continue to be a resource for estimating the health impacts of extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental study of extended timescale dynamics of a plasma wakefield driven by a self-modulated proton bunch

Plasma wakefield dynamics over timescales up to 800 ps, approximately 100 plasma periods, are studied experimentally at the Advanced Wakefield Experiment (AWAKE). The development of the longitudinal wakefield amplitude driven by a self-modulated proton bunch is measured using the external injection of witness electrons that sample the fields. In simulation, resonant excitation of the wakefield causes plasma electron trajectory crossing, resulting in the development of a potential outside the plasma boundary as electrons are transversely ejected. Trends consistent with the presence of this potential are experimentally measured and their dependence on wakefield amplitude are studied via seed laser timing scans and electron injection delay scans.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation and experimental study of proton bunch self-modulation in plasma with linear density gradients

We present numerical simulations and experimental results of the self-modulation of a long proton bunch in a plasma with linear density gradients along the beam path. Simulation results agree with the experimental results reported [F. Braunmller, T. Nechaeva et al. (AWAKE Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 125, 264801 (2020)]: with negative gradients, the charge of the modulated bunch is lower than with positive gradients. In addition, the bunch modulation frequency varies with gradient. Simulation results show that dephasing of the wakefields with respect to the relativistic protons along the plasma is the main cause for the loss of charge. The study of the modulation frequency reveals details about the evolution of the self-modulation process along the plasma. In particular for negative gradients, the modulation frequency across time-resolved images of the bunch indicates the position along the plasma where protons leave the wakefields. Simulations and experimental results are in excellent agreement.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling behavior of order parameters for the hybrid improper ferroelectric (Ca, Sr) 3 Ti 2 O 7

Here, we show that in contrast to the conventional view of a mean-field Landau-type behavior, the oxygen octahedral tilt ($\textit{R}$) and polarization (P) in the $A_3B_2\text{O}_7$ Ruddlesden-Popper hybrid improper ferroelectric (Ca,Sr) 3 Ti 2 O 7 exhibits the scaling behavior of a 2D Ising class near the para-to-ferroelectric transition temperature ($T_c$). We also show that $\textit{P}$ exhibits an additional transition from a 2D Ising to a 3D mean-field critical behavior at a temperature $T_{\text{d}} < T_{\text{c}}$, which is driven by enhanced interlayer dipolar correlations due to an increase in the ferroelectrically active $\textit{B}$-site centered dipoles.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Isoscaling and nuclear reaction dynamics

Isoscaling parameters α and β have been explored as a function of breakup angle in binary excited projectile-like fragment decays produced in collisions of 70 Zn+ 70 Zn and 64 Zn+ 64 Zn at 35 MeV per nucleon. In this analysis, focus was placed on isoscaling the second heaviest fragment with 4 ≤ Z L ≤ 8 emitted from the excited projectile-like fragment in events that contained a heavy fragment with Z H ≥ 12. The breakup orientation θ prox was defined as the angle between the heavy and light fragments’ center-of-mass velocity and the fragment pairs’ relative velocity. Breakups between 0° < θ prox ≤ 80° have been shown to be dominated by dynamical contributions, while break-up angles of θ prox > 100° are predominantly statistical. Historically, isoscaling has often been understood and applied in a statistical context, assuming that the fragments are produced after statistical equilibrium is achieved. Finally, studying isoscaling parameters as a function of θ prox reveals the sensitivity of α and β to the mechanism of fragment production.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Proton Bunch Self-Modulation in Plasma with Density Gradient

We study experimentally the effect of linear plasma density gradients on the self-modulation of a 400 GeV proton bunch. Results show that a positive or negative gradient increases or decreases the number of microbunches and the relative charge per microbunch observed after 10 m of plasma. The measured modulation frequency also increases or decreases. With the largest positive gradient we observe two frequencies in the modulation power spectrum. Results are consistent with changes in wakefields’ phase velocity due to plasma density gradients adding to the slow wakefields’ phase velocity during self-modulation growth predicted by linear theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transition between Instability and Seeded Self-Modulation of a Relativistic Particle Bunch in Plasma

We use a relativistic ionization front to provide various initial transverse wakefield amplitudes for the self-modulation of a long proton bunch in plasma. We show experimentally that, with sufficient initial amplitude [ ≥ ( 4.1 ± 0.4) MV / m ], the phase of the modulation along the bunch is reproducible from event to event, with 3%–7% (of 2 π ) rms variations all along the bunch. The phase is not reproducible for lower initial amplitudes. We observe the transition between these two regimes. Phase reproducibility is essential for deterministic external injection of particles to be accelerated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimally tuned starting point for single-shot GW calculations of solids

The dependence of ab initio many-body perturbation theory within the $\textit{GW}$ approximation on the eigensystem used in calculating quasiparticle corrections limits this method's predictive power. Here, we investigate the accuracy of the recently developed Wannier-localized optimally tuned screened range-separated hybrid (WOT-SRSH) functional as a generalized Kohn-Sham starting point for single-shot $\textit{GW}$ ($G_0W_0$) calculations for a range of semiconductors and insulators. Comparison to calculations based on well-established functionals, namely, PBE, PBE0, and HSE, as well as to self-consistent GW schemes and to experiment, shows that band gaps computed via $G_0W_0$@WOT-SRSH have a level of precision and accuracy that is comparable to that of more advanced methods such as quasiparticle self-consistent $\textit{GW}$ and eigenvalue self-consistent $\textit{GW}$. In this work, we also find that $G_0W_0$@WOT-SRSH improves the description of states deeper in the valence band manifold. Finally, we show that $G_0W_0$@WOT-SRSH significantly reduces the sensitivity of computed band gaps to ambiguities in the underlying WOT-SRSH tuning procedure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Traffic Control via Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs): An Open-Road Field Experiment with 100 CAVs

The CIRCLES project aims to reduce instabilities in traffic flow, which are naturally occurring phenomena due to human driving behavior. Also called “phantom jams” or “stop-and-go waves,” these instabilities are a significant source of wasted energy. Toward this goal, the CIRCLES project designed a control system, referred to as the MegaController by the CIRCLES team, that could be deployed in real traffic. Our field experiment, the MegaVanderTest (MVT), leveraged a heterogeneous fleet of 100 longitudinally controlled vehicles as Lagrangian traffic actuators, each of which ran a controller with the architecture described in this article. The MegaController is a hierarchical control architecture that consists of two main layers. The upper layer is called the Speed Planner and is a centralized optimal control algorithm. It assigns speed targets to the vehicles, conveyed through the LTE cellular network. The lower layer is a control layer, running on each vehicle. It performs local actuation by overriding the stock adaptive cruise controller, using the stock onboard sensors. The Speed Planner ingests live data feeds provided by third parties as well as data from our own control vehicles and uses both to perform the speed assignment. The architecture of the Speed Planner allows for the modular use of standard control techniques, such as optimal control, model predictive control (MPC), kernel methods, and others. The architecture of the local controller allows for the flexible implementation of local controllers. Corresponding techniques include deep reinforcement learning (RL), MPC, and explicit controllers. Depending on the vehicle architecture, all onboard sensing data can be accessed by the local controllers or only some. Likewise, control inputs vary across different automakers, with inputs ranging from torque or acceleration requests for some cars to electronic selection of adaptive cruise control (ACC) setpoints in others. The proposed architecture technically allows for the combination of all possible settings proposed previously, that is {Speed Planner algorithms} × {local Vehicle Controller algorithms} × {full or partial sensing} × {torque or speed control}. As a result, most configurations were tested throughout the ramp up to the MegaVandertest (MVT).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗