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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14

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NASA NTRS1999

Two Phase Technology Development Initiatives

Three promising thermal technology development initiatives, vapor compression thermal control system, electronics cooling, and electrohydrodynamics applications are outlined herein. These technologies will provide thermal engineers with additional tools to meet the thermal challenges presented by increased power densities and reduced architectural options that will be available in future spacecraft. Goddard Space Flight Center and the University of Maryland are fabricating and testing a 'proto- flight' vapor compression based thermal control system for the Ultra Long Duration Balloon (ULDB) Program. The vapor compression system will be capable of transporting approximately 400 W of heat while providing a temperature lift of 60C. The system is constructed of 'commercial off-the-shelf' hardware that is modified to meet the unique environmental requirements of the ULDB. A demonstration flight is planned for 1999 or early 2000. Goddard Space Flight Center has embarked upon a multi-discipline effort to address a number of design issues regarding spacecraft electronics. The program addressed the high priority design issues concerning the total mass of standard spacecraft electronics enclosures and the impact of design changes on thermal performance. This presentation reviews the pertinent results of the Lightweight Electronics Enclosure Program. Electronics cooling is a growing challenge to thermal engineers due to increasing power densities and spacecraft architecture. The space-flight qualification program and preliminary results of thermal performance tests of copper-water heat pipes are presented. Electrohydrodynamics (EHD) is an emerging technology that uses the secondary forces that result from the application of an electric field to a flowing fluid to enhance heat transfer and manage fluid flow. A brief review of current EHD capabilities regarding heat transfer enhancement of commercial heat exchangers and capillary pumped loops is presented. Goddard Space Flight Center research efforts applying this technique to fluid management and fluid pumping are discussed.

Didion, Jeffrey R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

An Acid-Free, Temperature-Based Cation Contamination Removal Strategy for PEM Water Electrolysis

It is widely understood that the durability and reliability of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) water electrolyzers are heavily dependent on feedwater purity, with cation contaminants that originate from incomplete water purification and balance of plant materials significantly harming electrolyzer performance. However, contamination remains a challenge and a common cause of failure at the stack level, indicating the need for strategies to recover the performance of contaminated cells. In this study, we investigate the effects of temperature on the uptake, electrochemical impacts, and removal of contaminant calcium and iron cations. Lower operating temperatures increase the sensitivity of the cell performance to contaminant cations, while also decreasing cation uptake and promoting contaminant removal. Computational charge transfer modelling shows that lower temperature increases the concentration of contaminant at the cathode and facilitates their removal from the cell. By testing single cells under scenarios designed to mimic stack temperature dynamics, we investigate low-temperature operation as an approach to stack-relevant contaminant recovery. Together, these results demonstrate that the low-temperature recovery approach is a promising approach for acid-free contamination recovery for PEM water electrolysis to promote stack reliability and durability.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1998

Active sample acquisition system for micro-penetrators

This paper summarizes the design and development of a sub-surface sample acquisition system for use in micro-penetrators. The system was developed for flight use under NASA's New Millennium Program, Deep Space 2 project. The system goal is to acquire approximately 100 mg of Martian sub-surface soil and return it to the inside of the micro-penetrator for analysis to determine the presence of water. Various passive and active sampling techniques that were tested during the development cycle are described. After significant testing, a side bore drill mechanism was chosen to be developed for use in the flight penetrators. The design, development, and testing of mechanism element are outlined, with particular emphasis placed on actuator development, drill stem design, impact testing, and mechanism testing in various soil types. The other system elements, a pyrotechnically actuated door mechanism to seal the sample and an impact restraint mechanism, are also described.

Voorhees, Chris↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) Aeroshell Performance

On November 10, 2022, NASA launched the Low-earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) reentry vehicle (RV)as a secondary payload mounted inside the launch vehicle (LV) adaptor on an Atlas V 401 out of the Vandenburg Space Force Base (VSFB). The primary payload, Joint Polar Satellite System-2 (JPSS-2), was delivered successfully to a sun-synchronous trajectory shortly after launch, at which point the Centaur upper stage performed a burn to de-orbit the system. Once on the desired trajectory to enter the atmosphere, the top of the payload adaptor was ejected to expose the LOFTID RV. Next, the LOFTID aeroshell, a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD), was deployed and inflated without issue. The Centaur pointed the LOFTID RV to the desired attitude to enter the atmosphere, spun the assembly to three rpm, separated the LOFTID RV, and finally performed a divert maneuver to prevent the Centaur from re-contacting the LOFTID RV after atmospheric entry. The LOFTID RV maintained the design attitude and spin rate from separation to atmospheric entry, a duration of roughly 30 minutes, demonstrating the aeroshell did not experience any energy damping from inflatable structure flexibility. The LOFTID RV entered the atmosphere over Alaska at >8km/sec and decelerated as designed, demonstrating aerodynamically stable flight from hypersonic entry through subsonic parachute deployment. On-board visible-spectrum cameras captured the physical response of the heatshield through all phases of flight. Co-located infrared cameras captured the temperature distribution of the aftside of the heat shield anchored to a distribution of thermocouples on the inflatable structure (IS) in the field of view. Thermocouples were also embedded in the forward side of the aeroshell both in the Flexible Thermal Protection System (FTPS) as well as the IS. This paper will document aeroshell’s response to the atmospheric entry. The visible-spectrum cameras captured mechanical response of the deployable aeroshell to the loads encountered in the different phases of entry. Events seen on the visible-spectrum cameras correlate with the measurements of the load cell pins on webbing elements that attach the aeroshell to the centerbody structure. Thermocouple data captured verifies the aerothermal response of the aeroshell was in-kind with pre-flight analysis predictions although somewhat lower in most locations. This data will enable enhancement of HIAD predictive capability. Post-flight inspection of the aeroshell after splashdown and ocean recovery shows that all the aeroshell materials and manufacturing techniques developed over the past two decades of HIAD technology development performed as expected at large scale, a scale which cannot be replicated in ground test facilities. The LOFTID RV remained high in the water after touching down under parachute, and maintained buoyancy and integrity for the hour it took to position the recovery vessel near the vehicle after splashdown. There was no indication the HIAD would have experienced an issue maintaining buoyancy for many more hours after water impact as the component maintained adequate inflation pressure more than 24 hours after water extraction with no additional inflation gas in tanks, as the inflation gas remaining in the tank was purposely vented prior to splashdown.

HIAD↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Impact of Operational Strategies and Load Fluctuations on Anion Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzer Degradation

This study reports on the durability of anion exchange membrane water electrolyzers (AEMWEs) at the cell level in a supporting electrolyte (1 M) and the impact of operational profiles on cell degradation. While constant load shows significant voltage loss, including a current hold at 1 A cm −2 and a potential hold at 2 V, it generally occurs in the first 70 h of testing. These losses are likely due to passivation altering site reactivity and cell kinetics, and are largely recoverable upon load cycling and diagnostics at the end of test. Furthermore, square and triangular-wave cycling do not show cell degradation and indicate that AEMWEs are not vulnerable to load cycling. When operating outside of this potential window (1.45–2 V), cell voltage decay rates markedly increase and the losses are not recoverable. This includes a current density hold at 4.0 A cm −2 with high cell voltages (>2.4 V for test duration) and cycling between 0 and 2 V to simulate start–stop, where more than a 50% loss in current density occurs over 50 h. The findings presented here demonstrate the high durability of AEMWEs, particularly when operating with load fluctuations, and may allow for durability advantages compared to iridium and proton exchange membrane systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1994

The controlled ecological life support system Antarctic analog project: Analysis of wastewater from the South Pole Station, Antarctica, volume 1

The Controlled Ecological Life Support system (CELSS) Antarctic Analog Project (CAAP) is a joint National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA project for the development, deployment and operation of CELSS technologies at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station. NASA goals are operational testing of CELSS technologies and the conduct of scientific studies to facilitate technology selection and system design. The NSF goals are that the food production, water purification, and waste treatment capabilities which will be provided by CAAP will improve the quality of life for the South Pole inhabitants, reduce logistics dependence, and minimize environmental impacts associated with human presence on the polar plateau. This report presents an analysis of wastewater samples taken from the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, Antarctica. The purpose of the work is to develop a quantitative understanding of the characteristics of domestic sewage streams at the South Pole Station. This information will contribute to the design of a proposed plant growth/waste treatment system which is part of the CELSS Antarctic Analog Project (CAAP).

Flynn, Michael T.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Inducer Hydrodynamic Forces in a Cavitating Environment

Marshall Space Flight Center has developed and demonstrated a measurement device for sensing and resolving the hydrodynamic loads on fluid machinery. The device - a derivative of the six-component wind tunnel balance - senses the forces and moments on the rotating device through a weakened shaft section instrumented with a series of strain gauges. This rotating balance was designed to directly measure the steady and unsteady hydrodynamic loads on an inducer, thereby defining the amplitude and frequency content associated with operating in various cavitation modes. The rotating balance was calibrated statically using a dead-weight load system in order to generate the 6 x 12 calibration matrix later used to convert measured voltages to engineering units. Structural modeling suggested that the rotating assembly first bending mode would be significantly reduced with the balance s inclusion. This reduction in structural stiffness was later confirmed experimentally with a hammer-impact test. This effect, coupled with the relatively large damping associated with the rotating balance waterproofing material, limited the device s bandwidth to approximately 50 Hertz Other pre-test validations included sensing the test article rotating assembly built-in imbalance for two configurations and directly measuring the assembly mass and buoyancy while submerged under water. Both tests matched predictions and confirmed the device s sensitivity while stationary and rotating. The rotating balance was then demonstrated in a water test of a full-scale Space Shuttle Main Engine high-pressure liquid oxygen pump inducer. Experimental data was collected a scaled operating conditions at three flow coefficients across a range of cavitation numbers for the single inducer geometry and radial clearance. Two distinct cavitation modes were observed symmetric tip vortex cavitation and alternate-blade cavitation. Although previous experimental tests on the same inducer demonstrated two additional cavitation modes at lower inlet pressures, these conditions proved unreachable with the rotating balance installed due to the intense dynamic environment. The sensed radial load was less influenced by flow coefficient than by cavitation number or cavitation mode although the flow coefficient range was relatively narrow. Transition from symmetric tip vortex to alternate-blade cavitation corresponded to changes in both radial load magnitude and radial load orientation relative to the inducer. Sensed moments indicated that the effective load center moved downstream during this change in cavitation mode. An occurrence of "higher+rdex cavitation" was also detected in both the stationary pressures and the rotating balance data although the frequency of the phenomena was well above the reliable bandwidth of the rotating balance. In summary the experimental tests proved both the concept and device s capability despite the limitations and confirmed that hydrodynamically-induced forces and moments develop in response to the unbalanced pressure field, which is, in turn, a product of the cavitation environment.

Skelley, Stephen E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Hard and Soft Safety Verifications

The purpose of this paper is to examine the differences between and the effects of hard and soft safety verifications. Initially, the terminology should be defined and clarified. A hard safety verification is datum which demonstrates how a safety control is enacted. An example of this is relief valve testing. A soft safety verification is something which is usually described as nice to have but it is not necessary to prove safe operation. An example of a soft verification is the loss of the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) casings from Shuttle flight, STS-4. When the main parachutes failed, the casings impacted the water and sank. In the nose cap of the SRBs, video cameras recorded the release of the parachutes to determine safe operation and to provide information for potential anomaly resolution. Generally, examination of the casings and nozzles contributed to understanding of the newly developed boosters and their operation. Safety verification of SRB operation was demonstrated by examination for erosion or wear of the casings and nozzle. Loss of the SRBs and associated data did not delay the launch of the next Shuttle flight.

Wetherholt, Jon↗

NASA NTRS1983

The effects of vegetation and soil hydraulic properties on passive microwave sensing of soil moisture: Data report for the 1982 fiels experiments

Field experiments to (1) study the biomass and geometrical structure properties of vegetation canopies to determine their impact on microwave emission data, and (2) to verify whether time series microwave data can be related to soil hydrologic properties for use in soil type classification. Truck mounted radiometers at 1.4 GHz and 5 GHz were used to obtain microwave brightness temperatures of bare vegetated test plots under different conditions of soil wetness, plant water content and canopy structure. Observations of soil moisture, soil temperature, vegetation biomass and other soil and canopy parameters were made concurrently with the microwave measurements. The experimental design and data collection procedures for both experiments are documented and the reduced data are presented in tabular form.

Oneill, P.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Meal Replacement Mass Reduction and Integration Acceptability Study

NASA, in planning for long-duration missions, has an imperative to provide a food system with the necessary nutrition, acceptability, and safety to ensure sustainment of crew health and performance. The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and future exploration missions are mass constrained; therefore the team is challenged to reduce the mass of the food system by 10% while maintaining product safety, nutrition, and acceptability. Commercially available products do not meet the nutritional requirements for a full meal replacement in the spaceflight food system, and it is currently unknown if daily meal replacements will impact crew food intake and psychosocial health over time. The purpose of this study was to develop a variety of nutritionally balanced breakfast replacement bars that meet spaceflight nutritional, microbiological, sensorial, and shelf-life requirements, while enabling a 10% savings in food mass. To date, six nutrient-dense meal replacement bars (approximately 700 calories per bar) have been developed, using traditional methods of compression as well as novel ultrasonic compression technologies developed by Creative Resonance Inc. (Phoenix, AZ). The four highest rated bars were evaluated in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) to assess the frequency with which actual meal replacement options may be implemented. Specifically, overall impact of bars on mood, satiety, digestive discomfort, and satisfaction with food. These factors are currently being analyzed to inform successful implementation strategies where crew maintain adequate food intake. In addition, these bars are currently undergoing shelf-life testing to determine long-term sensory acceptability, nutritional stability, qualitative stability of analytical measurements (i.e. water activity and texture), and microbiological compliance over two years of storage at room temperature and potential temperature abuse conditions to predict long-term acceptability. It is expected that this work will enable a successful meal replacement strategy to be implemented that will maintain crew food consumption and health, while informing exploration missions with appropriate mass savings expectations.

Sirmons, T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulating Ordinary Chondrite (Tamdakht) Ablation at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) Facility.

NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) created the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) to inform decision-makers of risks associated with Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs), which may pose an existential threat to human civilization. ATAP assesses risk, in part, by developing analytical physics-based damage models which draw upon data collected during material property characterization efforts, entry simulations, hazard simulations, and ground-based arc-jet testing. Therefore, a pathfinder test campaign was con-ducted at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) at the NASA Langley Re-search Center to investigate the ablation mechanisms of an ordinary chondrite (Tamdakht H5) and a terrestrial analog (basalt). The HyMETS facility is a 400 kW constricted arc heater used to screen material performance under simulated aerothermal conditions of hypersonic flow.1 Facility conditions were chosen to simulate Earth entry conditions be-tween the upper-mesosphere and the lower thermo-sphere. The ablation mechanisms of Tamdakht and bas-alt are illustrated with still images collected from high-speed video cameras (fig. 1, Tamdakht). Tamdakht produces a relatively stable melt flow, as evidenced by the perpetual growth of a flange at the sidewall and the exiguous detachment of molten material into the flow. Furthermore, an inspection of high-speed video and chemical analysis of the post-test melt layer suggests that the dominant mode of mass loss for Tamdakht, at these test conditions, is expressed through the vaporization of volatiles (e.g., iron, potassium, sodium, phosphorus, and sulfur). The vaporization rates of Tamdakht are greater than basalt under the most extreme test conditions, which leads to an enhanced blowing layer, in-creased thermal shielding, and reduced recession. The ablation mechanisms of basalt are markedly different from Tamdakht and are attributed to the presence of hydrated minerals dispersed at irregular intervals throughout the silicate matrix. Rapid de-composition of secondary minerals and the subsequent formation of water lead to the ejection of the subsurface and overlying melt layer. Furthermore, the presence of water is suspected of lowering the viscosity of the melt layer resulting in increased mass loss near the edge of the test article where drag forces overcome rheological properties (fig. 1, bas-alt). Finally, the results will be discussed in the broader context of meteorite-based material response model development and the potential impact on the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP).

Brody K. Bessire↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Low-Earth Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) Aeroshell Flight Performance

On November 10, 2022, NASA launched the Low-earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) vehicle as a secondary payload mounted inside the launch vehicle adaptor on an Atlas V 401 out of the Vandenburg Space Force Base (VSFB). The primary payload, Joint Polar Satellite System-2 (JPSS-2), was delivered successfully to a sun synchronous trajectory shortly after launch, at which point the Centaur upper stage performed a burn to de-orbit the system. Once on the desired trajectory to enter the atmosphere the top of the payload adaptor was ejected to expose the LOFTID vehicle, then the LOFTID aeroshell, a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD), was deployed and inflated without issue. The Centaur pointed the LOFTID to the desired attitude to enter the atmosphere, spun the assembly to three rpm, separated the reentry vehicle, and finally performed a collision avoidance maneuver to prevent the Centaur from re-contacting the LOFTID after atmospheric entry. The LOFTID vehicle maintained the design attitude and spin rate from separation to atmospheric entry, roughly 30 minutes, demonstrating the aeroshell did not experience any energy damping from inflatable structure flexibility. The LOFTID vehicle entered the atmosphere over Alaska at >8km/sec and decelerated as designed demonstrating stable flight from hypersonic entry through subsonic parachute deployment. On-board visible light cameras captured the reactions of the heatshield through all phases of flight and co-located infrared light cameras captured the temperature distribution of the aft side of the heat shield anchored to a distribution of thermocouples on the inflatable structure (IS) in the field of view. Thermocouples were also embedded in the forward side of the aeroshell both in the Flexible Thermal Protection System (FTPS) as well as the IS. This presentation will discuss aeroshell response to the atmospheric entry. The visible light cameras captured mechanical response of the IS to the loads applied in the different phases of entry. Events seen on the visible light cameras correlate with the response of the load cell pins on webbing elements that attach the aeroshell to the centerbody structure. Thermocouple data captured verifies the aerothermal response of the aeroshell was in-kind with pre-flight analysis predictions although some-what lower in most locations. This data will allow the improvement of the aeroshell modeling tools predictive capability. Post-flight inspection of the aeroshell after splash down and ocean recovery shows that all the aeroshell materials and manufacturing techniques developed over the past 15 years of HIAD technology development performed as de-signed at large scale, a scale which cannot be replicated in ground test facilities. The HIAD supported the LOFTID vehicle high in the water after touching down under parachute and maintained buoyancy and integrity for the hour it took to position the recovery vessel near the LOFTID after splash down. There was no indication the HIAD would have experienced an issue maintaining buoyancy for many more hours after water impact as the component maintained adequate inflation pressure more than 12 hours after water extraction with no additional inflation gas in tanks, as the inflation gas remaining in the tank was vented prior to impact. The LOFTID aeroshell was an unqualified success and has opened up opportunities for commercial application.

LOFTID Aeroshell Flight Performance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) Aeroshell Performance

On November 10, 2022, NASA launched the Low-earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) vehicle as a secondary payload mounted inside the launch vehicle adaptor on an Atlas V 401 out of the Vandenburg Space Force Base (VSFB). The primary payload, Joint Polar Satellite System-2 (JPSS-2), was delivered successfully to a sun synchronous trajectory shortly after launch, at which point the Centaur upper stage performed a burn to de-orbit the system. Once on the desired trajectory to enter the atmosphere the top of the payload adaptor was ejected to expose the LOFTID vehicle, then the LOFTID aeroshell, a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD), was deployed and inflated without issue. The Centaur pointed the LOFTID to the desired attitude to enter the atmosphere, spun the assembly to three rpm, separated the reentry vehicle, and finally performed a collision avoidance maneuver to prevent the Centaur from re-contacting the LOFTID after atmospheric entry. The LOFTID vehicle maintained the design attitude and spin rate from separation to atmospheric entry, roughly 30 minutes, demonstrating the aeroshell did not experience any energy damping from inflatable structure flexibility. The LOFTID vehicle entered the atmosphere over Alaska at >8km/sec and decelerated as designed demonstrating stable flight from hypersonic entry through subsonic parachute deployment. On-board visible light cameras captured the reactions of the heatshield through all phases of flight, and co-located infrared light cameras captured the temperature distribution of the aft side of the heat shield anchored to a distribution of thermocouples on the inflatable structure (IS) in the field of view. Thermocouples were also embedded in the forward side of the aeroshell both in the Flexible Thermal Protection System (FTPS) as well as the IS. This paper will discuss aeroshell response to the atmospheric entry. The visible light cameras captured mechanical response of the deployable aeroshell to the loads applied in the different phases of entry. Events seen on the visible light cameras correlate with the response of the load cell pins on webbing elements that attach the aeroshell to the centerbody structure. Thermocouple data captured verifies the aerothermal response of the aeroshell was in-kind with pre-flight analysis predictions although somewhat lower in most locations. This data will allow the improvement of the aeroshell modeling tools predictive capability. Post-flight inspection of the aeroshell after splash down and ocean recovery shows that all the aeroshell materials and manufacturing techniques developed over the past 15 years of HIAD technology development performed as designed at large scale, a scale which cannot be replicated in ground test facilities. The HIAD supported the LOFTID vehicle high in the water after touching down under parachute and maintained buoyancy and integrity for the hour it took to position the recovery vessel near the LOFTID after splash down. There was no indication the HIAD would have experienced an issue maintaining buoyancy for many more hours after water impact as the component maintained adequate inflation pressure more than 24 hours after water extraction with no additional inflation gas in tanks, as the inflation gas remaining in the tank was vented prior to impact.

Entry Descent Landing Atmospheric Entry Deployable↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Exploration Toilet On-orbit Results and Impact on Future Missions

The Universal Waste Management System (UWMS), which has the ISS operational nomenclature “Toilet”, was initially installed on the International Space Station (ISS) in 2020 with final installation completed in 2021. Technical progress continued to be made with each on-orbit operation that culminated in additional crew use of the UWMS on ISS. Additional problems were evaluated during troubleshooting and testing with the UWMS hardware using water and pretreat to simulate crew use. This paper summarizes the additional testing, troubleshooting and the results as well as characterizes the additional data obtained and summarizes the interpretation of the data to characterize the hardware’s operational nuances. Use of the hardware by crew is planned and will also be summarized. The paper will also describe the additional portions of the technology demonstration that were completed and the benefits that inform the Orion-installed UWMS unit and future manifesting of consumables for both Orion and ISS.

toilet↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Exploration Toilet on-Orbit Results and Impact on Future Missions

toilet↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Exploration Toilet on-Orbit Results and Impact on Future Missions

toilet↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Exploration Toilet on-Orbit Results and Impact on Future Missions

toilet↗

NASA NTRS2014

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

climate change↗