Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Yield Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

Validating the simulation of beam-ion charge exchange in MAST Upgrade

Abstract Simulation of the impact of charge-exchange (CX) reactions on beam ions in the Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak (MAST) Upgrade was compared to measurements carried out with a fission chamber (neutron fluxes) and a fast ion deuterium-alpha (FIDA) diagnostic. A simple model was developed to reconstruct the outer-midplane neutral density based on measurements of deuterium-alpha emission from edge neutrals, and on Thomson scattering measurements of electron density and temperature. The main computational tools used were the ASCOT orbit-following code and the FIDASIM code for producing synthetic FIDA signals. The neutral density reconstruction agrees qualitatively with SOLPS-ITER modelling and yields a synthetic passive FIDA signal that is consistent with measurement. When CX losses of beam ions are accounted for, predicted neutron emission rates are quantitatively more consistent with measurement. It was necessary to account for CX losses of beam ions in simulations to reproduce the measured passive FIDA signal quantitatively and qualitatively. The results suggest that the neutral density reconstruction is a good approximation, that CX with edge neutrals causes significant beam-ion losses in MAST Upgrade, typically 20% of beam power, and that the ASCOT fast-ion CX model can be used to accurately predict the redistribution and loss of beam ions due to CX.

Physics↗

Dynamics of nanoscale phase decomposition in laser ablation

Abstract Laser ablation is a process that bears both fundamental physics interest and has wide industrial applications. For decades, the lack of probes on the relevant time and length scales has prevented access to the highly nonequilibrium phase decomposition processes triggered by laser excitation. In this study, a close integration of time-resolved probing by intense femtosecond X-ray pulses with large-scale atomistic modeling has yielded unique insights into the ablation dynamics of thin gold films irradiated by femtosecond laser pulses. The emergence and growth of nanoscale density heterogeneities in the expanding ablation plume, predicted in the simulations, are mapped to the rapid evolution of distinct small angle diffraction features. This mapping enables identification of the characteristic signatures of different phase decomposition processes occurring simultaneously in the plume, which are driven by photomechanical and thermodynamic driving forces. Beyond the specific insights into the ablation phenomenon, this study demonstrates the power of joint X-ray probing and atomistic modeling of material dynamics under extreme conditions of thermal and mechanical nonequilibrium.

Sun, Yanwen (ORCID:0000000159266565)↗

Charge transfer rate constants for the carotenoid-porphyrin-C 60 molecular triad dissolved in tetrahydrofuran: The spin-boson model vs the linearized semiclassical approximation

Charge transfer rate constants were calculated for the carotenoid-porphyrin-C 60 (CPC 60 ) molecular triad dissolved in explicit tetrahydrofuran. The calculation was based on mapping the all-atom anharmonic Hamiltonian of this system onto the spin-boson Hamiltonian. The mapping was based on discretizing the spectral density from the time correlation function of the donor–acceptor potential energy gap, as obtained from all-atom molecular dynamics simulations. Different spin-boson Hamiltonians were constructed for each of the possible transitions between the three excited electronic states in two different triad conformations. The rate constants of three possible transitions were calculated via the quantum-mechanically exact Fermi’s golden rule (FGR), as well as a progression of more approximate expressions that lead to the classical Marcus expression. The advantage of the spin-boson approach is that once the mapping is established, the quantum-mechanically exact FGR and the hierarchy of approximations are known in closed form. The classical Marcus charge transfer rate constants obtained with the spin-boson Hamiltonians were found to reproduce those obtained from all-atom simulations with the linearized semiclassical approximation, thereby confirming the equivalence of the two approaches for this system. Furthermore, within the spin-boson Hamiltonian, we also found that the quantum-mechanically exact FGR rate constants were significantly enhanced compared to the classical Marcus theory rate constants for two out of three transitions in one of the two conformations under consideration. The results confirm that mapping to the spin-boson model can yield accurate predictions for charge transfer rate constants in a system as complex as CPC 60 dissolved in tetrahydrofuran.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

The Role of Innovation in the Circularity of EV Lithium-Ion Batteries

This case study analysis highlights the role of innovations in EV battery design (cells, modules, and packs), reverse supply chain, and recycling processes in yielding value for the economics of recycling (and have the largest impact on the circularity of LIBs). Part of the assessment of value will be a semi-quantitative evaluation of the value of resilience in the rapidly evolving LIB market – i.e., there are a variety of risks that recyclers would face in making a financial commitment to a recycling facility including; the possibility that batteries would not be collected in sufficient quantities, the market for key constituents (e.g., cobalt) might decrease because of changes in battery chemistry, battery manufacturers may not be willing to pay as much for recycled material, etc. The analysis would be semi-quantitative in that two simple models would be used to assess 1. material flows using a previously developed excel-based reverse supply chain flows model, and 2. A LIB recycling process material and energy balance cost model that will be used to qualitatively assess the cost impacts of process innovations and changes in feed streams. Both sets of models are highly speculative in that they rely on a multitude of assumptions and input values (e.g., EV adoption rates) that vary widely in the literature. Additionally, the initial process flow diagrams and equipment lists for the recycling cost model are based on the Argonne EverBatt model, which is still under development. However, in combination with a critical review of the literature, economic modeling can yield valuable insights into the role of innovation in the circularity of LIBs and high-technology (“energy relevant”) products in general.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗

Viewfactor and Raytracing for AgriPV Modeling

View factor models are used in due diligence software to calculate rear irradiance for bifacial modules. An intermediate step in this calculation is the irradiance at the ground level, which can be leveraged for evaluating the Photo Active Radiation available for crops in Agrivoltaic setups. This paper presents the metrics and modifications to the model for ground irradiance study with the view factor approach, compares it to the raytracing method, and validates it with field measurements of ground irradiance. It is found that for the clearances, row-to-row setups, and tilts studied, the view factor method matches with raytracing results within 2% MBD. The comparison is performed for the nine most common agriPV configurations using high-performance computing and the NSRDB database for the whole US, with results and data made available open-source on the InSPIRE AgriPV website.

AgriPV↗

Hierarchical Inference of the Lensing Convergence from Photometric Catalogs with Bayesian Graph Neural Networks

Abstract We present a Bayesian graph neural network (BGNN) that can estimate the weak lensing convergence ( κ ) from photometric measurements of galaxies along a given line of sight (LOS). The method is of particular interest in strong gravitational time-delay cosmography (TDC), where characterizing the “external convergence” ( κ ext ) from the lens environment and LOS is necessary for precise Hubble constant ( H 0 ) inference. Starting from a large-scale simulation with a κ resolution of ∼1′, we introduce fluctuations on galaxy–galaxy lensing scales of ∼1″ and extract random sight lines to train our BGNN. We then evaluate the model on test sets with varying degrees of overlap with the training distribution. For each test set of 1000 sight lines, the BGNN infers the individual κ posteriors, which we combine in a hierarchical Bayesian model to yield constraints on the hyperparameters governing the population. For a test field well sampled by the training set, the BGNN recovers the population mean of κ precisely and without bias (within the 2 σ credible interval), resulting in a contribution to the H 0 error budget well under 1%. In the tails of the training set with sparse samples, the BGNN, which can ingest all available information about each sight line, extracts a stronger κ signal compared to a simplified version of the traditional method based on matching galaxy number counts, which is limited by sample variance. Our hierarchical inference pipeline using BGNNs promises to improve the κ ext characterization for precision TDC. The code is available as a public Python package, Node to Joy ⏬ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Investigation of Molecular Diffusion at Block Copolymer Thin Films Using Maximum Entropy Method-Based Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy and Single Molecule Tracking

Fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) has been widely used to investigate molecular diffusion behavior in various samples. The use of the maximum entropy method (MEM) for FCS data analysis provides a unique means to determine multiple distinct diffusion coefficients without a priori assumption of their number. Comparison of the MEM-based FCS method (MEM-FCS) with another method will reveal its utility and advantage as an analytical tool to investigate diffusion dynamics. Herein, we measured diffusion of fluorescent probes doped into nanostructured thin films using MEM-FCS, and validated the results with single molecule tracking (SMT) data. The efficacy of the MEM code employed was first demonstrated by analyzing simulated FCS data for systems incorporating one and two diffusion modes with broadly distributed diffusion coefficients. The MEM analysis accurately afforded the number of distinct diffusion modes and their mean diffusion coefficients. These results contrasted with those obtained by fitting the simulated data to conventional two-component and anomalous diffusion models, which yielded inaccurate estimates of the diffusion coefficients. Subsequently, the MEM analysis was applied to FCS data acquired from hydrophilic dye molecules incorporated into microphase-separated polystyrene-block-poly(ethylene oxide) (PS-b-PEO) thin films characterized under a water-saturated nitrogen atmosphere. The MEM analysis revealed distinct fast and slow diffusion components attributable to molecules diffusing on the film surface and inside the film, respectively. SMT studies of the same materials yielded trajectories for mobile molecules that appear to follow the curved PEO microdomains. Diffusion coefficients obtained from the SMT data were consistent with those obtained for the slow diffusion component detected by MEM-FCS. Furthermore, these results highlight the utility of MEM-FCS and SMT for gaining complementary information on molecular diffusion processes in heterogeneous material systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deployment of neural-network-based neutron microscopic cross sections in the Griffin reactor physics application

The capability to utilize neural networks to predict macroscopic and microscopic cross section parametric spaces has been developed for the Griffin reactor physics application. The LibTorch interface enables Griffin's MOOSE-based materials to interact with LibTorch-trained models, allowing for the evaluation of complex macroscopic or microscopic cross section spaces, which are then used to evaluate the neutronic properties of the Griffin finite element model. This study benchmarks traditional ISOXML-formatted tabulation libraries against neural network-based models for 279 nuclides on 20,160 grid points for zero-dimensional and two-dimensional reactor models. Benchmark metrics include the fundamental mode eigenvalue, fission and absorption rates, and various temperature coefficients of reactivity (isothermal, fuel, and moderator). From the perspective of storage space, the complete set of LibTorch models uses 11 MB on disk, compared to the 10 GB for the ISOXML multigroup library that covers the same grid space. For the two-dimensional performance case considered in Griffin, the Torch model uses 97% less RAM than the reference ISOXML dataset while runtime increases by a factor of 3 when using the LibTorch model compared to the ISOXML dataset with multi-linear interpolation. The LibTorch model consistently yields errors within 0.01% for most analyzed quantities except for the temperature coefficients of reactivity where the maximum discrepancies are up to 0.3 $\frac{pcm}{K}$. Due to the neural network attempting to best predict quantities with no regard for a positive or negative bias for any given quantity, predictions may experience random fluctuations, resulting in both positive and negative errors. Future work will entail both depletion and coupled transient analysis to determine the predictive capabilities of Griffin with neural network-based cross sections.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Uncovering electronic and geometric descriptors of chemical activity for metal alloys and oxides using unsupervised machine learning

Here, we show that unsupervised machine learning (ML) using principal component analysis (PCA) provides a straightforward pathway for developing accurate and interpretable electronic-structure descriptors of the chemical and catalytic properties of materials. We demonstrate the approach by finding chemisorption descriptors for metal alloys and surface oxygens on metals and metal oxides. In both cases, the principal component (PC) descriptors yield ML models that predict the material’s chemical properties with competitive accuracy compared to ML models built using established descriptors. Importantly, interpreting the electronic-structure patterns captured by each PC descriptor via signal reconstruction suggests potential design motifs for future electronic-structure descriptor design and allows us to identify links between a material’s geometric and catalytic properties. Ultimately, we show that the unsupervised ML approach provides a route to find electronic-structure descriptors of the catalytic properties of materials that readily connect to geometric structure and composition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Anomalous elastic behavior of tantalum at high pressures: Experimental and theoretical studies

Elastic wave velocities of polycrystalline tantalum have been measured up to 13.6 GPa at room temperature using ultrasonic interferometry technique in a multi-anvil apparatus. The bulk and shear moduli, as well as their pressure derivatives are obtained using Eulerian 3rd order finite strain equations, yielding K S0 = 193.9(29) GPa, G 0 = 69.3(10) GPa, K S0' = 3.18(5) and G 0' = 0.88(1). Here the Steinberg-Guinan yield stress model is examined using the current shear modulus and its pressure derivative, where a slightly lower A 0 = 0.0127 GPa –1 compared to previous studies is obtained. First-principles calculations on the elasticity of tantalum have also been performed up to 200 GPa. Anomalous softening of the elastic shear constant C 44 and shear wave velocity V S is observed between 80– 180 GPa, whereas the anisotropy shows a softening-stiffening behavior with increasing pressure and reaches a minimum at around 150 GPa. Such anomalies might commonly originate from the nesting of Fermi surface for Group VB metals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Physics informed machine learning for chemistry tabulation

Modeling of turbulent combustion system requires modeling the underlying chemistry and the turbulent transport. Solving both systems simultaneously is computationally prohibitive. Instead, given the difference in scales at which the two sub-systems evolve, the two sub-systems are typically (re)solved separately. Popular approaches such as the Flamelet Generated Manifolds (FGM) use a two-step strategy where the governing reaction kinetics are pre-computed and mapped to a low-dimensional manifold, characterized by a few reaction progress variables (model reduction) and the manifold is then “looked-up” during the run-time to estimate the high-dimensional system state by the turbulent transport system. While existing works have focused on these two steps independently, in this work we show that joint learning of the progress variables and the look-up model, can yield more accurate results. Here, we build on the base formulation and implementation to include the dynamically generated Thermochemical State Variables (Lower Dimensional Dynamic Source Terms). We discuss the challenges in the implementation of this deep neural network architecture and experimentally demonstrate its superior performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Toward reducing uncertainty quantification costs in DEM models of particulate flow: Testing simple, sensitivity-based, forward uncertainty propagation techniques

The performance of two conceptually-simple uncertainty quantification techniques are tested against the rigorous nested-loop sampling technique of Roy and Oberkampf (Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng, 200: 2131–2144, 2011) (herein called full-sampling) using two very small-scale DEM-based models of particulate flow (one gas-solid flow and one granular flow). The first simplified forward uncertainty propagation technique, reduced-sampling, uses a sensitivity analysis to eliminate uncertain inputs that have little impact on the model output prior to nested-loop sampling. The second technique, boundary-sampling, uses a sensitivity analysis to inform the selection of two bounding cases for each key model output. In conclusion, the uncertainties in the model outputs obtained via the reduced- and boundary-sampling methods agree well with those from full-sampling for both the gas-solid and granular flow models while yielding computational savings of 65–75% (reduced sampling) and 94–97% (boundary sampling).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multiobjective Modular Biorefinery Configuration under Uncertainty

With increasing interest in using biomass as a raw material for fuel, the development of biorefineries is an active area of research. However, increasing market competition, uncertainty, and environmental concerns are a few of the challenges that need to be addressed. In this work, mathematical optimization formulations are proposed to address these challenges simultaneously. A multiobjective deterministic optimization framework is proposed to address economic and environmental objectives. A two-stage stochastic optimization framework is proposed to account for uncertainties in material flow and product yields. To model the environmental objective, an environmental risk metric is proposed. Finally, as modularization is gaining popularity in the process industry due to its ability to save capital cost because of standardization and reduce time to market, a formulation for simultaneously achieving modular process design and biorefinery configuration is proposed. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Supercritical Carbon Dioxide and Water using TraPPE and SWM4-NDP Force Fields

The increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuels and the consequential impact on global climate change have made CO 2 capture, storage, and utilization a significant area of focus for current research. In most electrochemical CO 2 applications, water is used as a proton donor due to its high availability and mobility and use as a polar solvent. Additionally, supercritical CO 2 is a promising avenue for electrochemical applications due to its unique chemical and physical properties. Consequently, understanding the interactions between water and supercritical CO 2 is of great importance for future electrochemical applications. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a powerful tool that enables atomistic-resolution dynamics of molecular systems, which can complement and guide future experimental investigations. This study employed atomistic MD to study the cosolubilities, codiffusivities, and structure of supercritical CO 2 and water systems, with a polarizable water model (SWM4-NDP) and a nonpolarizable CO 2 model (TraPPE). Additionally, ab initio MD simulations were used to better understand how atomistic polarizable/nonpolarizable models compare to explicit modeling of electron densities. The polarizable water model exhibited substantial improvement in water-associated properties. In conclusion, we anticipate the development of a compatible polarizable CO 2 model to yield similar improvement, providing a pathway for realizing novel high-pressure electrochemical systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Fluorescence Enhancement in the Solid State by Isolating Perylene Fluorophores in Metal–Organic Frameworks

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons such as perylene, pyrene, and their derivatives are highly emissive fluorophores in solution. Furthermore, the practical applications of these materials in the field of molecular electronic and light emitting devices are often hindered by self-quenching effects due to the formation of non-fluorescent aggregates in concentrated solutions or in the solid state. Herein, we demonstrate that aggregation caused quenching of perylenes can be minimalized by molecular incorporation into metalorganic frameworks (MOFs). This study utilized a stable Zr 6 cluster-based MOF, UiO-67, as a matrix. Linear linkers containing the photo-responsive moieties were designed and incorporated into the parent UiO-67 scaffold through the partially replacement of the non-fluorescent linkers of a similar length, forming mixed-linker MOFs. Here, the average distance between perylene moieties was tuned by changing the linker ratios, thus controlling the fluorescence intensity, emission wavelength, and quantum yield. Molecular modeling was further adopted to correlate the number of isolated perylene linkers within the framework to the ratio between the two linkers, therefore rationalizing the change in the observed fluorescent properties. Taking advantage of the tunable fluorescence, inherent porosity, and high chemical stability of this MOF platform, it was applied as a fluorescent sensor for oxygen detection in the gas phase, a model reaction, showing fast response and good recyclability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗