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Comparative Analysis of Rear Irradiance Modeling Methods for Bifacial PV Systems on Single-Axis Trackers Under Varying Albedo Conditions
This study compares three rear-side irradiance modeling methods for bifacial PV systems on single-axis trackers: (i) the 2D View Factor (VF) model in PVsyst(R), (ii) the open-source PVFactors VF model, and (iii) the Ray Tracing (RT) technique using bifacial_radiance. Simulations were benchmarked against field measurements from a pilot PV plant with rear-side sensors at the torque tube height. Results show that all models underestimated the non-uniformity of rear irradiance along the module length and overestimated the total rear irradiance incident on the module. However, since bifacial gain represents only a fraction of the system's total energy, the resulting energy yield differences among methods remained within +- 2 % of measured values, which is typical for such simulations. While the overall energy impact is limited, this study characterizes the specific limitations of each modeling approach, supporting further improvements in bifacial PV performance assessment methods.
Automating the Analysis of Large Language Models Responses through Zero-Shot Question Answering
Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant potential in various applications, yet their evaluation, particularly in zero-shot question answering scenarios, remains a challenging task. In this study, our objective was to explore precision metrics for Large Language Models (LLM) and design and implement a software pipeline to automatically evaluate LLMs' outputs under zero-shot question answering. Zero-shot question answering involves a model providing answers to questions about topics it hasn't seen during training. It leverages the principles of zero-shot learning by relying on semantic understanding and generalization from related knowledge. The data used was metadata from medical databases on congenital heart disease. We explored eleven LLM metrics and selected three for our evaluation: BLEU, BERTScore, and MoverScore. BLEU calculates a score based on the overlap of n-grams (contiguous sequences of n items, typically words) between the machine-generated translation and the reference translations. Higher BLEU scores indicate better correspondence between the machine-generated and human-generated translations. BERTScore is a metric used to evaluate the quality of machine-generated text by measuring the similarity of token embeddings produced by BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) between the generated text and reference text. MoverScore is a metric that quantifies the dissimilarity between the distributions of word embeddings from machine-generated text and reference text, emphasizing semantic similarity over exact token overlap. We also introduced HBKI, a composite metric summarizing these approaches. We tested five models —GPT-3, Llama-2, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Solar 10.7B, and Mixtral-8x7b. Our software pipeline, designed and implemented using Object-Oriented Programming principles, allows users to customize the selection and extraction of features for topics of interest in their own research. Our results show that MoverScore delivered the most precise evaluation of the LLM's outputs, while Mixtral-8x7b achieved the best overall performance in extracting metadata from the databases.
In-situ data extraction for pathway analysis in an idealized model atmosphere
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Hyper-Differential Sensitivity Analysis With Respect to Model Discrepancy
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Hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy
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Overview of SNL's Model-free Hosting Capacity Analysis (MoHCA) Tool
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Hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy
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Perturbation Theory Analysis of the Haldane Model
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Evaluation of Machine Learning Models for Automated Data Analysis in In-Service Nuclear Power Plant Inspections
The commercial nuclear power industry is facing a potential shortage of certified nondestructive evaluation (NDE) analysts to meet future in-service inspection demands. Automated data analysis (ADA) currently supports human inspectors in tasks such as eddy current evaluations for steam generator examinations. Machine learning (ML) systems are nearing the capability to pass performance demonstration tests for ultrasonic testing (UT) inspections of reactor pressure vessel upper head penetrations in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Current research and development is focused on assisted analysis (AA) of ADA versus fully automated examinations. This presentation will cover assessment of ML flaw detection on dissimilar metal weld (DMW) piping joints.
Tank Options Toolset for Analysis of Logistics (TOTAL) Model, Facilitating Decision-Making for Hanford Remediation
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FRMAC Gamma Spectroscopist Training : Source modeling for quantitative spectral analysis (Revision 01)
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Enabling Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Physical Security Using EMRALD and MAAP
The optimization of physical security in nuclear power plants requires sophisticated methodologies that integrate operator actions and plant behavior through advanced simulation tools. To address this, Idaho National Laboratory [JL2.1]has developed the Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF) methodology, an approach that integrates force-on-force simulations, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment, and thermal-hydraulics modeling [JL3.1]to enhance security planning while reducing costs. We developed a tool that produces reduced order models using thermal hydraulic simulations from the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) [1]. These models can quickly evaluate reactor core behavior during attack simulations, and in so doing, address two barriers of traditional methods: (1) MAAP simulations are computationally intensive, and (2) attack scenarios must be run in a secure environment, which complicates analysis and validation. By precomputing scenario outcomes for a small number of modified parameters, the reduced order model significantly decreases the computational cost and enables offsite review of the results.
RE-INTEGRATE EMT Simulation Software: Graph Convolutional Network for Sparse Matrix Pattern Detection
The increasing complexity of power networks, driven by proliferation of inverters, presents analytical challenges that simplified models often fail to capture, necessitating Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) simulations. EMT models are represented as discretized differential-algebraic equations (DAEs), forming a linear system Ax = b that is computationally intensive to solve. Due to inherent sparsity of adjacency matrix A, distinct patterns emerge that, when accurately identified, enable efficient solver selection to minimize computation time. However, identifying ideal pattern is complicated by numerous reordering algorithms and limited structural insights. To address this, we introduce a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) model for classifying sparse matrix patterns common in power system analysis. The model, achieving 96% test accuracy, is validated using PV plant models of 125 MW capacities connected to New England 39-bus transmission system (TS), and further scaled to a 4,992-bus network with 384 PV plants, yielding 191, 616 × 191, 616 sized A matrix. For all cases, the GCN model accurately identifies the matrix’s intrinsic sparse pattern, demonstrating its potential to enhance solver performance in EMT analysis.
Framework development for a SAVY-4000 nuclear material storage container structural integrity surveillance tool
Here, this work presents the preliminary design of an automated surveillance tool to assess the health of SAVY-4000 nuclear material storage containers. This tool is designed by training several machine learning (ML) regression models to predict maximum residual stress in plain dents on the container sidewall. The model is trained on an experimentally validated Finite Element Analysis (FEA) model built in Abaqus FEA. The accuracy of each ML model is compared. The potential for application as well as model shortcomings are assessed. Necessary FEA model improvements are outlined and the various ML models are proposed.
Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai
The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.
Sensitivity analysis of thermal contact conductance modeling to inform MiniFuel irradiation capsule designs
The MiniFuel irradiation platform has been developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory as a flexible, high-throughput separate effects testing capability within the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments to achieve a specific time-averaged irradiation temperature for experimental objectives. A previous study identified that uncertainty in the component heat generation rates and thermal contact conductance (TCC) model are the most significant contributors to predicted fuel temperature variance. To address both sources of uncertainty, this work performs sensitivity analysis on the TCC model to identify high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute to fuel temperature variance. The TCC model is analyzed in increasing detail, first using a standalone Python code, then again after coupling Python to the BISON fuel performance code. Furthermore, the parameters with the largest contributions to fuel temperature variance which can be reduced through design changes are identified as the initial subcapsule gas pressure, contact pressure between the fuel and dish, and the effective surface roughness of the interface. A set of design recommendations for future capsule designs has been established and applied to reduce the previously quantified average fuel temperature uncertainty ranges of ± 40 °C in the HFIR vertical experiment facilities (VXF) and ± 80 °C in the removable beryllium (RB) reflector to approximately ± 32 °C and ± 53 °C, respectively. This equates to a 21 % and 33 % reduction in the uncertainty range of the average fuel temperature for VXF and RB, respectively.
TRANSP integrated modeling code for interpretive and predictive analysis of tokamak plasmas
This paper provides a comprehensive review of the TRANSP code, a sophisticated tool for interpretive and predictive analysis of tokamak plasmas, detailing its major capabilities and features. It describes the equations for particle, power, and momentum balance analysis, as well as the poloidal field diffusion equations. The paper outlines the spatial and time grids used in TRANSP and details the equilibrium assumptions and solvers. Various models for heating and current drive and radiation, including updates to the NUBEAM model, are discussed. The handling of large-scale events such as sawtooth crashes and pellet injections is examined, along with the predictive capabilities for advancing plasma profiles. The integration of TRANSP with the ITER Integrated Modeling and Analysis Suite (IMAS) is highlighted, demonstrating enhanced data access and analysis capabilities. Additionally, the paper discusses best practices and continuous integration techniques to enhance TRANSP's robustness. The suite of TRANSP tools, designed for efficient data analysis and simulation, further supports the optimization of tokamak operations and coupling with other tokamak codes. Continuous development and support ensure that TRANSP remains a major code for the analysis of experimental data for controlled thermonuclear fusion, maintaining its critical role in supporting the optimization of tokamak operations and advancing fusion research.