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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Tracing the green valley with entropic thresholding

ABSTRACT The green valley represents the population of galaxies that are transitioning from the actively star-forming blue cloud to the passively evolving red sequence. Studying the properties of the green valley galaxies is crucial for our understanding of the exact mechanisms and processes that drive this transition. The green valley does not have a universally accepted definition. The boundaries of the green valley are often determined by empirical lines that are subjective and vary across studies. We present an unambiguous definition of the green valley in the colour–stellar mass plane using the entropic thresholding. We first divide the galaxy population into the blue cloud and the red sequence based on a colour threshold that minimizes the intraclass variance and maximizes the interclass variance. Our method splits the region between the mean colours of the blue cloud and the red sequence into three parts by maximizing the total entropy of that region. We repeat our analysis in a number of independent stellar mass bins to define the boundaries of the green valley in the colour–mass diagram. Our method provides a robust and natural definition of the green valley.

Pandey, Biswajit (ORCID:000000017876595X)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-learning from Pseudomonas putida KT2440 transcriptomes reveals its transcriptional regulatory network

Bacterial gene expression is orchestrated by numerous transcription factors (TFs). Elucidating how gene expression is regulated is fundamental to understanding bacterial physiology and engineering it for practical use. In this study, a machine-learning approach was applied to uncover the genome-scale transcriptional regulatory network (TRN) in Pseudomonas putida KT2440, an important organism for bioproduction. We performed independent component analysis of a compendium of 321 high-quality gene expression profiles, which were previously published or newly generated in this study. We identified 84 groups of independently modulated genes (iModulons) that explain 75.7% of the total variance in the compendium. With these iModulons, we (i) expand our understanding of the regulatory functions of 39 iModulon associated TFs (e.g., HexR, Zur) by systematic comparison with 1993 previously reported TF-gene interactions; (ii) outline transcriptional changes after the transition from the exponential growth to stationary phases; (iii) capture group of genes required for utilizing diverse carbon sources and increased stationary response with slower growth rates; (iv) unveil multiple evolutionary strategies of transcriptome reallocation to achieve fast growth rates; and (v) define an osmotic stimulon, which includes the Type VI secretion system, as coordination of multiple iModulon activity changes. Taken together, this study provides the first quantitative genome-scale TRN for P. putida KT2440 and a basis for a comprehensive understanding of its complex transcriptome changes in a variety of physiological states.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

TBASS: A Robust Adaptation of Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surfaces

The R package TBASS is an extension of the BASS package created by Francom and Sansó (2019). The package is used to fit a Bayesian multivariate adaptive spline to a dataset that either follows a Student’s t-distribution or has outliers. Much of the framework for TBASS is adapted from the concepts of Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (BMARS), specifically the work done by Denison, Mallick, and Smith (1998). The spline function is fit using a Reversible-Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm,. By including this more robust generalization, a dataset with outliers can be accurately fit using the BMARS model, without the possibility of overfitting or variance inflation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment (Final Report)

This report documents the FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target (TSPT) of developing an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment (FREDA). Over Q1-Q4, new capabilities were developed across both plasma and engineering domains and demonstrated on an example representation of a Compact Advanced Tokamak with a Dual Cooled Lead Lithium blanket. This represents a first-of-a-kind demonstration of coupled core-to-wall-to-engineering for a reactor. Self-consistent CESOL workflows were applied to provide core, pedestal, and SOL prediction; new modules were developed for energetic particle stability (FAR3D) and transport (TGLF-EP) analysis; and boundary plasma modeling (SOLPS-ITER, BOUT++/Hermes-3) was expanded to evaluate wall and divertor heat fluxes and interface with engineering thermal analysis. A parameterized CAD tool, TRACER, was expanded to generate medium-fidelity divertor, blanket, and coil geometries; OpenFOAM and Diablo workflows were applied for first-wall and divertor thermal analyses with helium cooling; and reduced-order models were created for high-mass-flux divertor cooling. Magnet multiphysics capabilities were verified between Elmer, Diablo, and a new MFEM-based solver, and workflows enable stress, thermal, and neutron-fluence analysis of TF coils with neutronics-driven heating. Nuclear and blanket analysis workflows were demonstrated, including tritium breeding, transport, and CFD-informed thermo-mechanical assessment. Preliminary multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification workflows were applied to boundary modeling codes and shown to achieve variance reductions with fewer high-fidelity boundary simulations. Key findings highlight the challenges of resolving the ITEP gap to find suitable balance between wall and divertor loads, neutron heating, and practical limits of PFC cooling. Next step priorities are to develop automated workflows to check boundary code convergence and detachment, implement tighter physics-engineering CAD provenance tracking, and inclusion of plasma-material interface models for SLAG and tungsten cracking behavior. Collectively, these developments establish sophisticated capabilities for predictive, multi-fidelity, whole-device modeling that integrates plasma physics, materials, magnets, and nuclear engineering to guide pathways to viable Fusion Pilot Plant design points.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Structuring Nutrient Yields throughout Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Using Machine Learning Approaches

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO 3 -NO 2 ), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mitigating the noise of DESI mocks using analytic control variates

In order to address fundamental questions related to the expansion history of the Universe and its primordial nature with the next generation of galaxy experiments, we need to model reliably large-scale structure observables such as the correlation function and the power spectrum. Cosmological N-body simulations provide a reference through which we can test our models, but their output suffers from sample variance on large scales. Fortunately, this is the regime where accurate analytic approximations exist. To reduce the variance, which is key to making optimal use of these simulations, we can leverage the accuracy and precision of such analytic descriptions using Control Variates (CV). The power of control variates stems from utilizing inexpensive but highly correlated surrogates of the statistics one wishes to measure. The stronger the correlation between the surrogate and the statistic of interest, the larger the variance reduction delivered by the method. We apply two control variate formulations to mock catalogs generated in anticipation of upcoming data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) to test the robustness of its analysis pipeline. Our CV-reduced measurements offer a factor of 5-10 improvement in the measurement error compared with the raw measurements. We explore the relevant properties of the galaxy samples that dictate this reduction and comment on the improvements we find on some of the derived quantities relevant to Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistical Modeling and Analysis of k -Layer Coverage of Two-Dimensional Materials in Inkjet Printing Processes

Two-dimensional layered materials/flakes, also known as crystalline atom-thick layer nanosheets, have recently been receiving great attention in electronics fabrication due to their unique and intriguing properties. The k-layer coverage area (i.e., the area covered by k number of overlapping layers) of the printed flake pattern significantly impacts on the properties of the printed electronics. In this work, we constructed a statistical model to describe the k-layer coverage of randomly distributed two-dimensional materials. A series of results are obtained to provide not only the expectation but also the variance of the coverage area. The boundary effects on the random flakes coverage are also studied. In addition, an approximated statistical testing approach is also developed in this work to detect abnormal coverage patterns. Furthermore, the case studies based on simulated data and real flakes images obtained from the inkjet printing process demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed model and analysis methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Compositional effects on cure kinetics, mechanical properties and printability of dual-cure epoxy/acrylate resins for DIW additive manufacturing

Interest in 3D printing of thermoset resins has increased significantly in recent years. One approach to additive manufacturing of thermoset resins is printing dual-cure resins with direct ink write (DIW). Dual-cure resins are multi-component resins which employ an in situ curable constituent to enable net-shape fabrication while a second constituent and cure mechanism contribute to the final mechanical properties of the printed materials. In this work, the cure kinetics, green strength, printability, and print fidelity of dual-cure epoxy/acrylate thermoset resins are investigated. Resin properties are evaluated as a function of acrylate concentration and in situ UV exposure conditions. The acrylate cure kinetics are probed using photo-differential scanning calorimetry and the impacts of resin composition and UV cure profile on the acrylate extent of conversion are presented. Continuous and pulsed UV cure profiles are shown to affect total conversion due to variances in radical efficiency at different UV intensities and acrylate concentrations. The effects of acrylate concentration on the kinetics of the epoxy thermal cure and the final mechanical properties are also investigated using dynamic mechanical analysis and three-point bend measurements. The glass transition temperature is dependent on formulation, with increasing acrylate content decreasing the T g . However, the room temperature shear moduli, flexural moduli, strength, strain-to-failure, and toughness values are relatively independent of resin composition. The similarity of the final properties allows for greater flexibility in resin formulation and in situ cure parameters, which can enable the printing of complex parts that require high green strength. We found that the in situ UV print intensities and exposure profiles that are necessary to achieve the best print quality are not, in most cases, the conditions that maximize conversion of the acrylate network. Lastly, this highlights the importance of developing optimized resin compositions which enable complete cure of the acrylate network by promoting acrylate dark cure or thermal cure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving the estimate of higher-order moments from lidar observations near the top of the convective boundary layer

Abstract. Ground-based lidar data have proven extremely useful for profiling the convective boundary layer (CBL). Many groups have derived higher-order moments (e.g., variance, skewness, fluxes) from high-temporal-resolution lidar data using an autocovariance approach. However, these analyses are highly uncertain near the CBL top when the depth of the CBL (zi) is changing during the analysis period. This is because the autocovariance approach is usually applied to constant height levels and the character of the eddies is changing on either side of the changing CBL top. Here, a new approach is presented wherein the autocovariance analysis is performed on a normalized height grid, with a temporally smoothed zi. Output from a large eddy simulation model demonstrates that deriving higher-order moments from time series on a normalized height grid has better agreement with the slab-averaged quantities than the moments derived from the original height grid.

Rosenberger, Tessa E. (ORCID:0000000333205873)↗
DOE OSTI2023

BigNeuron: a resource to benchmark and predict performance of algorithms for automated tracing of neurons in light microscopy datasets

BigNeuron is an open community bench-testing platform with the goal of setting open standards for accurate and fast automatic neuron tracing. We gathered a diverse set of image volumes across several species that is representative of the data obtained in many neuroscience laboratories interested in neuron tracing. Here, we report generated gold standard manual annotations for a subset of the available imaging datasets and quantified tracing quality for 35 automatic tracing algorithms. The goal of generating such a hand-curated diverse dataset is to advance the development of tracing algorithms and enable generalizable benchmarking. Together with image quality features, we pooled the data in an interactive web application that enables users and developers to perform principal component analysis, t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding, correlation and clustering, visualization of imaging and tracing data, and benchmarking of automatic tracing algorithms in user-defined data subsets. The image quality metrics explain most of the variance in the data, followed by neuromorphological features related to neuron size. Furthermore, we observed that diverse algorithms can provide complementary information to obtain accurate results and developed a method to iteratively combine methods and generate consensus reconstructions. The consensus trees obtained provide estimates of the neuron structure ground truth that typically outperform single algorithms in noisy datasets. However, specific algorithms may outperform the consensus tree strategy in specific imaging conditions. Finally, to aid users in predicting the most accurate automatic tracing results without manual annotations for comparison, we used support vector machine regression to predict reconstruction quality given an image volume and a set of automatic tracings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning of All Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv RNA-seq Data Reveals a Structured Interplay between Metabolism, Stress Response, and Infection

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is one of the most consequential human bacterial pathogens, posing a serious challenge to 21st century medicine. A key feature of its pathogenicity is its ability to adapt its transcriptional response to environmental stresses through its transcriptional regulatory network (TRN). While many studies have sought to characterize specific portions of the M. tuberculosis TRN, and some studies have performed system-level analysis, few have been able to provide a network-based model of the TRN that also provides the relative shifts in transcriptional regulator activity triggered by changing environments. Here, we compiled a compendium of nearly 650 publicly available, high quality M. tuberculosis RNA-sequencing data sets and applied an unsupervised machine learning method to obtain a quantitative, top-down TRN. It consists of 80 independently modulated gene sets known as “iModulons,” 41 of which correspond to known regulons. These iModulons explain 61% of the variance in the organism’s transcriptional response. We show that iModulons (i) reveal the function of poorly characterized regulons, (ii) describe the transcriptional shifts that occur during environmental changes such as shifting carbon sources, oxidative stress, and infection events, and (iii) identify intrinsic clusters of regulons that link several important metabolic systems, including lipid, cholesterol, and sulfur metabolism. This transcriptome-wide analysis of the M. tuberculosis TRN informs future research on effective ways to study and manipulate its transcriptional regulation and presents a knowledge-enhanced database of all published high-quality RNA-seq data for this organism to date.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Driving mode analysis—How uncertain functional inputs propagate to an output

Abstract Driving mode analysis elucidates how correlated features of uncertain functional inputs jointly propagate to produce uncertainty in the output of a computation. Uncertain input functions are decomposed into three terms: the mean functions, a zero‐mean driving mode, and zero‐mean residual. The random driving mode varies along a single direction, having fixed functional shape and random scale. It is uncorrelated with the residual, and under linear error propagation, it produces an output variance equal to that of the full input uncertainty. Finally, the driving mode best represents how input uncertainties propagate to the output because it minimizes expected squared Mahalanobis distance amongst competitors. These characteristics recommend interpretation of the driving mode as the single‐degree‐of‐freedom component of input uncertainty that drives output uncertainty. We derive the functional driving mode, show its superiority to other seemingly sensible definitions, and demonstrate the utility of driving mode analysis in an application. The application is the simulation of neutron transport in criticality experiments. The uncertain input functions are nuclear data that describe how Pu reacts to bombardment by neutrons. Visualization of the driving mode helps scientists understand what aspects of correlated functional uncertainty have effects that either reinforce or cancel one another in propagating to the output of the simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Defect and satellite characteristics of additive manufacturing metal powders

Metal additive manufacturing (AM) requires high-quality metal powders to three-dimensionally (3D) print metallic components with complex and customizable geometries. The lack of quantification of AM metal powders creates quality control challenges for 3D printed components, increases the uncertainty of printing reliability and net cost of inspected and certified printed components, and reduces the recyclability of used powders. However, critical characteristics of AM metal powders that are decisive factors for the 3D printing process, such as internal porosity, contamination, and satellite feature, remain ambiguous. In this work, we developed a novel approach to 3D quantify key characteristics of AM metal powders down to individual particles by using high-resolution synchrotron x-ray computed tomography. Empowered by the penetrative capability of high-energy x-ray, internal porosity and contamination within as-atomized metal powders from high-entropy alloys to nickel-based superalloys were evaluated. Additionally, the newly-developed dispersion method enables the homogeneous separation of individual particles, and consequently, results in the implementation of 3D particle shape analysis. To resolve a major challenge of identification and quantification of satellite-feature particles in as-atomized AM metal powders, the satellite features were quantitated by modeling and analyzing the shape parameter of local thickness variance. Furthermore, the 3D analytical methods of particle assessment in this study can be applied to other materials systems like rock, food, and pharmaceutical particles, and provide insights for process optimization across powder metallurgy, concrete, food and pharmaceutical manufacturing, and AM industries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Drizzle Parameters by Aircraft Sampling

In-cloud supersaturation is calculated from aircraft derived measurements of the in-cloud vertical gradient of liquid water content, vertical velocity, the pt and 3 rd cloud droplet radius moments and a parameter related to the heat and mass transport during condensation and evaporation of cloud droplets. The aircraft data where taken during the VOCALS 2008 study in marine stratocumulus clouds off the coast of Chile. Approximately 16000 discrete samples, 2.5 meter in length, were used in the present analysis of in-cloud supersaturation and its variability, both of which are indicative of turbulent processes within the cloud and their significant impact on drizzle formation. Two additional drizzle parameters, the eddy persistence time and the variance of fluctuations in in-cloud droplet growth rate were also estimated from this data set. These results will help to constrain parameterizations of underlying turbulent microphysical processes of clouds and thereby advance the future development of warm cloud and precipitation models for climate simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging Machine Learning Capabilities for the Characterization of Irradiated Uranium: A Case Study of Analysis Methods for Nuclear Safeguards and Nuclear Forensics

Nondestructively determining the initial enrichment of irradiated uranium is a complex and laborious multivariable problem due to the presence of fission products. This work demonstrates the capabilities of machine learning to analyze gamma-ray spectral data to determine initial enrichment without knowledge of the decay time of the sample. The approach developed is agnostic to the particular scenario and is applicable to a wide variety of applications in nuclear forensics and nuclear safeguards. We irradiated 5 mg uranium standard reference materials at discrete enrichment values ranging from 0.02% to 97% 235 U (weight percent) in UT Austin’s Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory TRIGA Mark II 1.1 MW research reactor, allowed each to decay for 8 hours, and then measured each sample via gamma-ray spectrometry for 50 hours post-irradiation yielding 1,400 individual gamma-ray spectra discretized into 8,192 energy bins. We then trained decision trees models to analyze individual gamma-ray spectra and estimate the associated initial enrichment without knowledge of the time since end of irradiation. We evaluated the performance of the models with a reserved test set not used for training or calibrating the model. A decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 2.3% (weight percent 235 U). Next, we implemented a principal component analysis pre-processing routine of the gamma-ray spectrometry data to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset from 8,192 channels in the spectrum to 10 principal components while retaining over 99% of the inherent variance in the data. Decision tree models constructed with these data demonstrated decreased mean absolute error in enrichment determination, reduced computational time, and decreased complexity. A single decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 0.05% (weight percent 235 U). Furthermore, we analyzed these models with learning curves to ensure that overfitting did not occur. The capabilities provided by these models can be naturally extended to other application-focused measurements in the fields of nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and nuclear non-proliferation.

Drescher, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis applied to SiC failure probability in TRISO modeled with BISON

Here, a sensitivity analysis on the failure probability of the Silicon Carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel during transient conditions predicted by the BISON fuel performance code is performed. The principal goal of the analysis is to understand the most important parameters dictating SiC failure behavior in BISON during Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIAs). SiC brittle fracture probability is modeled using Weibull statistics. A total of seven inputs related to SiC failure has been selected for the analysis, including the Weibull statistics parameters, elastic moduli for SiC and Pyrolitic Carbon (PyC) and SiC stress-free temperature. A 1D TRISO BISON model has been established for various reactivity insertions performed at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR). The principal advantage associated with the 1D TRISO model developed in this work is its computational efficiency. The Sobol variance decomposition method is used, and the sensitivity indices are presented for eight different values of the energy deposition. The results show that the two most important parameters impacting the predicted SiC failure probability are the Weibull modulus and the characteristic stress, and a co-variance amongst these parameters is obtained for low reactivity insertions. An additional new finding of this work is that the relative importance of Weibull parameters depends on the energy deposition, and thus reactivity, regime. For low energy depositions, two parameters are of influence on SiC failure probability, while for high energy depositions only one parameter impacts failure probability results. Moreover, optimization of the Weibull modulus and characteristic stress is performed by minimizing the RMSE between BISON failure probability predictions and experimental failure fractions for each energy deposition. This work also demonstrates the validity of the NSRR tests BISON simulations and of the respective sensitivity analysis results as conservative, yet indicative for slower transients characterized by lower deposited energies. Such verification is achieved through the partial extension of the analysis to a group Control Rod Withdrawal reproduced from a previous study. Another novel result of this analysis is that no single set of Weibull parameters can reproduce all reactivity insertion experimental failure results, which is related to the intrinsic nature of SiC failure properties, and a new range for the parameters is proposed to produce a failure probability envelope that encompasses the experimental fractions. Additionaly, this work proposes a new approach for future failure analysis with BISON, consisting in the use of Weibull parameters ranges, rather than fixed sets, along with failure envelopes generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

HIDRA-MAT liquid metal droplet injector for liquid metal applications in HIDRA

A liquid metal droplet injector was explicitly designed for the Hybrid Illinois Device for Research and Applications Material Analysis Test-stand (HIDRA-MAT) at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign to prepare liquid metal plasma-facing components (PFCs) for plasma exposure. The design goals were to create a compact, reliable, and robust design that could apply liquid metal droplets in-vacuo to a variety of samples. The injector was designed for liquid metal use, and results discussed pertain to lithium. The injector can produce lithium droplets of consistent size by utilizing programmable piston movement. Here, droplet formation data is presented for four different piston step sizes (0.125 mm, 0.25 mm, 0.5 mm, and 1 mm) at three different nozzle temperatures (185 °C, 230 °C, and 270 °C). Droplets are formed on the injector nozzle tip and a linear shift mechanism vertically translates the droplet to the substrate for application. This design prevents the droplet from inadvertently detaching off the nozzle and falling to the sample. Application of the liquid metal droplet ensures placement consistency on the substrate and helps avoid damage to components in HIDRA-MAT that should not interact with liquid metals. A description of the liquid lithium droplet creation and application results is given and provides additional insight into the cooling and oxidation of lithium droplets under vacuum conditions. A second nozzle was fabricated and demonstrated repeatability in droplet diameter creation having a variance of ±0.14 mm for droplets created from the same number of piston steps. The end-use for the injector on HIDRA-MAT is to apply liquid metals to PFCs and expose them to HIDRA's plasma with subsequent intershot in-vacuo surface analysis in HIDRA-MAT for plasma-material interaction studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes

Here, the principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗