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At least 253 records · Page 14

Rewarding Grid-Friendly Behavior: Estimating the Potential Bill Reduction and Load Shifting Benefits of Dynamic Prices

Shifting electric load from times of peak demand can be a key strategy to slow price growth as reducing peak demand avoids the cost of upgrading generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure. Utilities are releasing time-varying prices, such as time of use rates or dynamic prices, to incentivize grid-friendly load shifting. New dynamic price programs provide insight into the true cost of operating electricity grids and the potential economic benefits of load shifting. Program developers and device manufacturers need to understand the economic opportunities in terms of 1) the variation in prices across hours, days, and seasons; 2) the change in utility bills for customers who don’t shift load; and 3) the potential load shifted and economic value of different technologies if manufacturers or aggregators deploy price-responsive controls. This paper estimates possible impacts of dynamic price adoption and load shifting controls if customers paid the dynamic rate from one pilot program. Statistical analysis of historical prices identified annual and seasonal metrics as well as representative price curves for each circuit in the pilot. Simulations for residential technologies with price-responsive controls including unitary heat pump water heaters, central multifamily heat pump water heaters, heating & cooling + storage systems, and pool pumps estimated the potential impacts of highly dynamic prices both with and without load shifting controls. Results showed the potential to reduce electricity costs on representative days by 42-94% and reduce consumption during times of high electricity prices by 63-100% compared to baseline operation for those flex-friendly devices.

Grant, Peter↗

Can we safely go to 200 °C? An integrated approach to assessing impacts to the engineered barrier system in a high-temperature repository

Abstract. This presentation gives on overview of the complex thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes occurring during the disposal of heat-producing high-level radioactive waste in geologic repositories. A specific focus is on the role of compacted bentonite, which is commonly used as an engineered backfill material for emplacement tunnels because of its low permeability, high swelling pressure, and radionuclide retention capacity. Laboratory and field tests integrated with THMC modeling have provided an effective way to deepen our understanding of temperature-related perturbations in the engineered barrier system; however, most of this work has been conducted for maximum temperatures around 100 ∘C. In contrast, some international disposal programs have recently started investigations to understand whether local temperatures in the bentonite of up to 200 ∘C could be tolerated with no significant changes to safety relevant properties. Raising the maximum temperature is attractive for economical and safety reasons but faces the challenge of exposing the bentonite to significant temperature increases. Strong thermal gradients may induce complex moisture transport processes while geochemical processes, such as cementation and perhaps also illitization effects may occur, all of which could strongly affect the bentonite and near-field rock properties. Here, we present initial investigations of repository behavior exposed to strongly elevated temperatures. We will start discussing our current knowledge base for temperature effects in repositories exposed to a maximum temperature of 100 ∘C, based on data and related modeling analysis from a large heater experiment conducted for over 18 years in the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland. We then show results from coupled THMC simulations of a nuclear waste repository in a clay formation exposed to a maximum temperature of 200 ∘C. We also explore preliminary data from a bench-scale laboratory mock-up experiment, which was designed to represent the strong THMC gradients occurring in a “hot” repository, and we finally touch on a full-scale field heater test to be conducted soon in the Grimsel Test Site underground research laboratory in Switzerland (referred to as HotBENT).

Birkholzer, Jens T. (ORCID:0000000279891912)↗

Wildfire Segmentation From Remotely Sensed Data Using Quantum-Compatible Conditional Vector Quantized-Variational Autoencoders

Wildfires represent a critical environmental hazard with multifaceted implications for ecosystems, communities, and public health [1]. The escalating frequency and intensity of wildfires globally have intensified the urgency for robust segmentation methodologies to facilitate effective mitigation, response, and recovery strategies [2]. Accurate wildfire segmentation is pivotal for delineating fire boundaries, assessing progression patterns, and prioritizing resource allocation during emergency scenarios. Furthermore, precise segmentation enables stakeholders, including policymakers, environmental scientists, and emergency responders, to formulate evidence-based strategies, thereby minimizing socio-economic disruptions and ecological degradation. Consequently, advancing wildfire segmentation techniques through innovative technological interventions remains a paramount research imperative. Although foundational in wildfire segmentation, traditional deterministic models exhibit inherent limitations that compromise their efficacy in dynamic and uncertain environments. These models often operate on rigid algorithms prioritizing deterministic classifications, thereby overlooking the inherent complexities and uncertainties associated with wildfire behavior and satellite data variability. Such deterministic frameworks tend to produce oversimplified representations that fail to capture the intricate nuances of evolving fire dynamics, spatial heterogeneity, and environmental interactions [1]. Consequently, the deterministic approach’s propensity for uncertainty collapsing [1, 3] hampers the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of segmentation outcomes in real-world scenarios. Contrastingly, stochastic models offer a more nuanced and adaptable framework for wildfire segmentation. By integrating probabilistic elements into the modeling paradigm, stochastic approaches, particularly probabilistic approaches such as variational auto encoders (VAEs) [4], facilitate comprehensive uncertainty assessment, enabling researchers to quantify and incorporate uncertainties into segmentation outcomes effectively. This probabilistic nature empowers stochastic models to encapsulate variability, account for data inconsistencies, and adapt to evolving environmental conditions, enhancing segmentation accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Embracing stochastic methodologies thus catalyzes advancements in wildfire science by fostering a more holistic, adaptive, and resilient segmentation framework. Despite VAEs demonstrating significant promise in various applications, they come with inherent limitations that have garnered attention within the machine learning community. One of the primary drawbacks lies in their reliance on static priors, which essentially assume a fixed distribution for latent variables, thereby limiting the model’s flexibility to capture complex data structures effectively [5]. This static nature leads to suboptimal representations, especially when dealing with complex and high-dimensional data. Additionally, VAEs often struggle with generating sharp and realistic samples, a phenomenon commonly referred to as mode collapse [5, 7, 6]. Furthermore, the optimization process in VAEs, which involves balancing the reconstruction loss and the regularization term, can sometimes be challenging to fine-tune [7]. In recent efforts to address these shortcomings, alternative approaches like Vector Quantized Variational Auto encoders(VQ-VAEs) [7], address the challenges by incorporating discrete latent variables and leveraging techniques that enhance the quality and diversity of generated samples while maintaining efficient training dynamics. VQ-VAEs propose a dynamic prior distribution generation mechanism that diverges from the static priors commonly associated with traditional VAEs. This dynamic approach allows for more adaptive and context-aware latent variable representations, thereby potentially capturing complex data structures more effectively. Unlike autoregressive prior models such as PixelCNN, which, despite their ability to model dependencies across data dimensions, suffer from significant computational inefficiencies and lack flexibility in handling diverse datasets. In our work, we propose to use a generative quantum-compatible approach to help alleviate the shortcomings of autoregressive prior model in VQ-VAEs. Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are a viable alternative prior model that can learn prior distributions in a faster and more flexible manner. In this research endeavor, we meticulously curate a state-of-the-art dataset leveraging satellite MODIS data in conjunction with VIIRS fire masks, derived from Fire Radiative Power (FRP), thereby encapsulating diverse wildfire scenarios and environmental contexts. We developed a conditional VQ-VAE architecture with the RBM prior model that is trained in a supervised manner for segmenting wildfire masks. This innovative approach synergistically harnesses deep learning capabilities, enabling the generation of segmentation maps characterized by heightened precision, granularity, and contextual relevance. Furthermore, replacing the autoregressive prior learning method proposed by the original VQ-VAE with a prior density approximation via quantum-compatible RBM facilitates expedited inference processes, augments flexibility in prior sampling, optimizes computational efficiency and establishes a groundbreaking benchmark in wildfire segmentation methodologies.

quantum machine learning↗

Versatile Heat Transfer Module

Development of micro-reactors that can be easily transported to remote areas for civilian or military applications is an immediate focus of U.S. nuclear industry and therefore is being pursued by multiple reactor vendors (e.g. HolosGen LLC, Westinghouse, Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation, URENCO, etc.) and actively supported by DOE-NE, DOE-ARPA-E and by the Department Of Defense (DoD). Very-high-temperature gas-cooled (VHTR) and heat pipe cooled reactor technologies are regarded as promising concepts for microreactors applications since they enable compact power conversion systems and display beneficial inherent safety features. Development of microreactors with enhanced performance must be supported by innovations in nuclear technologies. Several technologies being developed by the microreactor industry are being revisited with material technologies developed at the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). Innovative high-temperature compatible solutions are developed to enable advanced thermal-spectrum microreactor designs featuring improved neutronics performance at high-temperature operating conditions to enable high thermal efficiency and economic competitiveness. This report focuses on the Versatile Heat Transfer Module (VHTM) technology that is developed at ANL for heat-transfer in thermal-spectrum microreactors. This technology is built on a liquid alkali metal heat pipe concept while leveraging advanced nuclear material technologies for high-temperature applications at reduced neutronic penalty with potential improvement in inherent safety behavior. The VHTM can be applied to design high-temperature thermal-spectrum microreactor systems with reduced size, weight, uranium enrichment, or increased lifetime. The INFINIT technology deriving from the VHTM enables design of a highly compact long-life microreactor concept for fission surface power (FSP). Demonstration of multiphysics modeling capability was also completed to showcase the added inherent safety benefits obtained with this concept. The VHTM technology remain at an early development stage with low Technology Readiness Level and Manufacturing Readiness Level. The current demonstration of these technologies has focused on manufacturing capability, on performance of the hydrogen diffusion barrier under thermal cycling, while radiation tolerance demonstration is planned. The next step of the demonstration plan will be the assembly of miniature VHTM for high-temperature testing, which can be used as a prototype for future pilot scale demonstration. Such research is critical to pursue development of these technologies that have the clear potential to significantly improve the performance of currently investigated micro-reactors systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Data Falsification Attacks Utilizing Behavioral Models

A charging station (CS) and its associated electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) and charging electric vehicle (EV) interactions are potential targets for data falsification attacks since CSs are typically unmanned public facilities that are connected to the internet and EVs incorporate the vulnerable CAN bus network, which are both susceptible to remote attacks. The research question being addressed is how is the EV owner and CS negatively affected by CAN bus EV battery current sensor and battery temperature sensor data falsification attacks. Negative effects include economic losses from reduced life span of the battery, battery thermal runaway and fire (and potential loss of surrounding structure), and reduced utilization of the CS due to delayed departure time (longer charging times).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

He-3 and other lunar volatiles

Constraints are considered and estimates are given for the abundances of He-3, other noble gases, and chemically reactive volatiles (e.g., H, C, N, S, F, Cl) on the Moon. For the case of surface inventories, solar wind particles implanted into grains on the surface of the Moon provide an accessible, though not necessarily abundant, source of H, C, N and the noble gases. Solar wind implanted species are concentrated in the infest grain sized, and are only found in the upper few meters of the regolith, where there are grains that have been directly exposed to the Sun. Elemental abundances in surface soils are typically 10s of mg/g, and vary according to the exposure history of the soil. The abundance of the rare, but possibly economically important, isotope He-3 is typically a few mg/g. The largest uncertainty in estimates of the total lunar abundance of solar wind implanted species comes from the lack of knowledge of their distribution with depth below the upper meter or two. For the case of bulk inventories, constraints resulting from lunar sample analyses and from physical chemical models of volatile behavior during the hypothesized giant impact origin of the Moon is used to give estimated abundances.

Fegley, B., Jr.↗

A Satellite Data-Driven, Client-Server Decision Support Application for Agricultural Water Resources Management

Water cycle extremes such as droughts and floods present a challenge for water managers and for policy makers responsible for the administration of water supplies in agricultural regions. In addition to the inherent uncertainties associated with forecasting extreme weather events, water planners need to anticipate water demands and water user behavior in a typical circumstances. This requires the use decision support systems capable of simulating agricultural water demand with the latest available data. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. In previous work we have demonstrated novel methodologies to use satellite-based observational technologies, in conjunction with hydro-economic models and state of the art data assimilation methods, to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and land allocation. These methods create an opportunity for new, cost-effective analysis tools to support policy and decision-making over large spatial extents. The methods can be driven with information from existing satellite-derived operational products, such as the Satellite Irrigation Management Support system (SIMS) operational over California, the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and using a modified light-use efficiency algorithm to retrieve crop yield from the synergistic use of MODIS and Landsat imagery. Here we present an integration of this modeling framework in a client-server architecture based on the Hydra platform. Assimilation and processing of resource intensive remote sensing data, as well as hydrologic and other ancillary information occur on the server side. This information is processed and summarized as attributes in water demand nodes that are part of a vector description of the water distribution network. With this architecture, our decision support system becomes a light weight 'app' that connects to the server to retrieve the latest information regarding water demands, land use, yields and hydrologic information required to run different management scenarios. Furthermore, this architecture ensures all agencies and teams involved in water management use the same, up-to-date information in their simulations.

Agricultural↗

Next generation retrofit wall panels with integrated vacuum insulation panels

Approximately two-thirds of residential buildings in the United States were constructed before the Department of Energy established energy conservation measures. These buildings present major opportunities for improving energy efficiency, though retrofitting them remains technically and economically challenging. This study presents the development and the durability evaluation of an innovative retrofit panel system that integrates vacuum insulation panels (VIP) with a nail-base panel (called a retrofit insulated panel) to enhance thermal performance with minimal disruption to occupants and without altering standard nail-based panel installation practices. Hygrothermal simulations were conducted to assess the moisture behavior of wall assemblies before and after retrofit installation under varying water vapor control strategies and climate conditions. Results indicate that, with appropriate moisture control strategy, the retrofit system effectively prevents moisture accumulation, keeping mold index values and relative humidity levels below critical thresholds. Additionally, Guarded Hot Box testing was performed to compute the effective R-value of the panel under different coverage areas that demonstrates its effectiveness in enhancing both thermal and moisture performance in existing residential buildings.

Iffa, Emishaw [ORNL]↗

Agent-Based Modeling for the Circular Economy: Lessons Learned From Three Case Studies

The circular economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from resource use, creating wealth in the process. Recently, many scholars have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in many methodological approaches being developed for that purpose. This presentation summarizes the insights gained from the application of agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability of three technologies: photovoltaic (PV) modules, hard disk drives (HDDs), and wind blades. Four main categories of agents are defined in the ABM: asset owners, service providers (e.g., refurbishers), recyclers, and manufacturers. Two main CE strategies are represented: lifetime extension (through repair or reuse) and recycling. The developed models start by projecting installed capacities and end-of-life (EOL) quantities. Then the theory of planned behavior - a social psychology model explaining behavior adoption based on attitude, peer influence, and costs - is used to model the asset owners' EOL decision (i.e., landfill, recycle or extend the lifetime of the asset). Then, the quantities of assets flowing to the recycler and service provider agents and quantities of materials flowing to manufacturers are computed. Recyclers' economies of scale are dynamically modeled, and the value generated by the CE strategies for the recyclers, service providers, and manufacturers is computed within the model. When data are available, avoided greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the CE strategies adoption are calculated exogenously from the ABM simulations. Results show that with improved used PV modules warranties, the reuse CE strategy adoption increases from 1% to 23% between 2020 and 2050. Similarly, improved standards could enhance HDDs end-users trust in data-wiping - a prerequisite to reuse - leading to a 3-fold increase in the reuse rate and avoid about 5 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050. Regarding wind blades, 5-15 years lifetime extension could reduce EOL blade quantities by 13%. High costs and logistic issues prevent blades from being recycled in greater quantities. One insight from the case studies is the necessity to have mature secondary markets for reuse to be a viable option. Interestingly, PV reuse is limited by the willingness of PV owners to purchase used modules (on the demand side), while HDDs reuse is constrained by the lack of trust toward data-wiping (limiting the supply of used HDDs). The six limits of the CE concepts presented by Korhonen et al. (2018) are finally used to interpret the results. The HDD case study is an exemplary lock-in, where the first accepted practice (shredding) retains most of the market. The PV results illustrate the technical limitation to reuse, as the growing demand cannot be supplied entirely with used PV modules. The wind case study shows the relevance of clearly defining physical flows - what type of waste should wind blades be considered, how should they be transported and landfilled? - a crucial consideration that also applies to PV modules. Finally, the three case studies highlight the relevance of studying a technology's technical, economic, and market material efficiency potentials altogether and the potential benefit of coupling ABM to life cycle assessment.

agent-based modeling↗

History Matching and Performance Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope (ANS) is ongoing. After more than 2.5 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is economically attractive.

Wang, Xindan↗

Designing Nuclear Fuels with a Multi-Principal Element Alloying Approach

Previous research has shown that multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs) using chromium, molybdenum, niobium, tantalum, titanium, vanadium, and zirconium can form stable body-centered-cubic (BCC) structures across a large temperature region (25°C to 1000°C). This is the same crystal structure as γ-uranium (U), which has shown desirable thermal and irradiation behavior in previous alloy fuel research. It is hypothesized then that the MPEA alloying approach can be used to produce a stable BCC uranium-bearing alloy and to retain its stability throughout anticipated operating regimes of power-producing reactors. Candidate elements were assessed using Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) analysis to determine uranium densities necessary to make the alloy an economically viable fuel compared to conventional fuel forms. Following neutronic considerations, materials property databases and empirical predictors were used to determine the compositions with a high potential to form a BCC solid solution alloy. The final four alloys were MoNbTaU 2 , MoNbTiU 2 , NbTaTiU 2 , and NbTaVU 2 , which were cast using arc melting of raw elemental foils and chunks. Characterization of the fabricated alloys included scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, and transmission electron microscopy. The results showed a two-phase system with a U-rich matrix phase surrounding the refractory precipitates. The U phase was found to contain varying concentrations of the alloying elements and was a BCC γ-U phase. These results warrant further research to identify ideal compositions for use as an advanced alloy fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine

The Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) is software tool written in python, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) that provides an easily accessible application-programming-interface (API) to performing resource dispatch optimization analysis for integrated energy system (IES) configurations. DOVE is an integral part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) software suite and is leveraged by codes such as the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the Optimization of Real-Time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). The philosophy behind DOVE is to provide a modular software solution to IES planning and operation by utilizing state-of-the-art algorithms and machine learning. The goal is to accurately capture the dispatching behavior of a complex energy system given varying time-dependent signals for demand and commodity pricing.

McDowell, DylanJ. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

LLNL 5-2428: Fracture Permeability and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameteruncertainty and better predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites.We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. This capability will enable improvedengineering decisions at Utah FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. Utah FORGE management and future EGS operators may employ results of THMC+E models for decision making purposes throughout the lifetime of the field operation. For example, before production well installation, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite ofpossible well locations and flow rates, thus enabling evaluation of optimal production well placement. Such efforts will be conducted throughout the lifetime of the project, whereby additional laboratory experiments will constrain key model parameters and machine learning (ML) will reduce the size of the parameter space and the associated uncertainty. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evidence for globally coherent variability in solar magnetic flux emergence

We examine the large-scale spatial and temporal variations in the emergence of X-ray bright points on the sun, in order to study the global properties of magnetic flux emergence. Major variations in the rate of flux emergence are observed at all solar latitudes, on a time scale of 3-5 months. The most economical explanation of the observations is that the full sun participated in a single large eruptive event during the available 8 month observing period from Skylab in 1973. The peak of this global event corresponds in time to the eruption of a major complex of activity. Moreover, it appears that the only portion of the solar surface which deviates from the above pattern of behavior is the low latitude region in the vicinity of the AR complex; this area shows a temporary depletion immediately following the AR outburst. The high-latitude regions in both hemispheres show the same variation and appear to lead the low-latitude emergence by approximately 1 month.

Golub, L.↗

Comparative Soot Diagnostics Experiment Looks at the Smoky World of Microgravity Combustion

From an economic standpoint, soot is one of the most important combustion intermediates and products. It is a major industrial product and is the dominant medium for radiant heat transport in most flames used to generate heat and power. The nonbuoyant structure of most flames of practical interest (turbulent flames) makes the understanding of soot processes in microgravity flames important to our ability to predict fire behavior on Earth. In addition, fires in spacecraft are considered a credible possibility. To respond to this risk, NASA has flown fire (or smoke) detectors on Skylab and the space shuttles and included them in the International Space Station design. The design of these detectors, however, was based entirely on normal gravity (1g) data. The detector used in the shuttle fleet is an ionization detector, whereas the system planned for the space station uses forward scattering of near-infrared light. The ionization detector, which is similar to smoke detectors used in homes, has a comparative advantage for submicron particulates. In fact, the space shuttle model uses a separation system that makes it blind to particles larger than a micron (believed to be dust). In the larger size range, the lightscattering detector is most sensitive. Without microgravity smoke data, the difference in the particle size sensitivities of the two detectors cannot be evaluated. As part of the Comparative Soot Diagnostics (CSD) experiment, these systems were tested to determine their response to particulates generated during long periods of low gravity. This experiment provided the first such measurements toward understanding soot processes on Earth and for designing and implementing improved spacecraft smoke detection systems. The objectives of CSD were to examine how particulates form from a variety of sources and to quantify the performance of several diagnostic techniques. The sources tested included four overheated materials (paper, silicone rubber, Teflon-coated (DuPont) wire, and Kapton-coated (DuPont) wires), each tested at three heating rates, and a candle tested at three air velocities. Paper, silicone rubber, and wire insulation, materials found in spacecraft crew cabins, were selected because of their different smoke properties. The candle yielded hydrocarbon soot typical of many 1g flames. Four diagnostic techniques were employed: thermophoretic sampling collected particulates for size analysis; laser light extinction measurements near the source tallied total particulate production; and laser light scattering and ionization detector measurements far from the particulate source provided data for evaluating the performance of smoke detection systems for these particulate sources.

Urban, David L.↗

On the Formalization of Development and Assessment Process for Digital Twins in the Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System

In recent years, the autonomous control system has been encouraged in advanced reactors for restoring economic viability, simplifying the operation and maintenance, and enabling remote-site power generations [1]. Since the reactor is expected to be operated for a long period of time with a limited number of individuals onsite, it is recommended that the autonomous control system should have access to very realistic models of the state of processes in the whole lifecycle, together with these process behaviors in interaction with their environment in the real world. As a result, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested in autonomous control systems. DT is defined as a digital representation of a physical object or system, which contains a record for the histories of loads, operation and maintenance status, predictions for the near-term transient of important state variables, and decision-making process [2]. Since machine learning (ML) can recognize patterns within a complex system in real-time applications, it has been used to build DTs in the autonomous control systems for advanced reactors. Meanwhile, due to the rareness of operation data in accident scenarios, the development and assessment of DTs is expected to be mainly driven by simulations. Although the capability and feasibility of ML-based DTs are recognized in improving the safety and efficiency of reactor control, a major concern from the regulatory commission and the nuclear industry is whether the information from a DT is developed and assessed in accordance with expectation and requirements by the target decision. Such concerns not only affect the acceptance criteria for DTs, but also values that can be extracted from DTs and autonomous control system during operations. Inspired by the success of formal methods in improving the reliability and robustness of computer programming and software development, it is suggested that the development and assessment process (DAP) for both separate DTs and integral control system should be formalized in a transparent, consistent, and improvable manner. In this study, a digital-twin development and assessment process (DT-DAP) is proposed by adapting the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) [3] to requirements by the autonomous control system, ML algorithms, and DT technology. To demonstrate the framework, a baseline nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system with ML-based DTs for diagnosis and prognosis is developed and assessed based on the framework. It is found that with selected testing methods and techniques, the DT-DAP can help identify errors in DTs and NAMAC which would otherwise be left unverified. Meanwhile, it is found that the DT-DAP can improve the DTs and NAMAC by continuously learning and iterating through different elements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Iron-sandstone synergy: Advancing in-situ hydrogen production from natural gas via electromagnetic heating

Here, to address the escalating demands for decarbonization in the petroleum industry, a carbon-zero technology, known as in-situ hydrogen (H 2 ) production via electromagnetic (EM)-assisted catalytic heating, has recently been proposed for generating and extracting clean H 2 directly from petroleum reservoirs. Although preliminary techno-economic analyses show significant potential of this emerging technology for clean and affordable hydrogen, the fundamentals of natural gas conversion to H 2 in the presence of reservoir rocks are poorly understood. In this study, we explore the synergy between sandstone and artificial iron-based catalysts in enhancing in-situ H 2 production from methane (CH 4 ) cracking under EM irradiation. The dynamic behaviors of sandstone under EM heating are comprehensively investigated, including its thermal behaviors, thermal runaway (TR) phenomenon, gas generation during TR, and energy consumption. We found that sandstone demonstrates an evident natural catalytic effect for promoting CH 4 conversion to H 2 , enabling H 2 production starting at about 394 °C. The natural catalytic role of iron minerals in sandstone is elucidated using various advanced characterization techniques. Remarkably, when adding iron catalysts into the sandstone, the highest H 2 concentration and CH 4 conversion reaches 91 mol.% and 80%, respectively, at a temperature of 666 °C, while they are 50 mol.% and 35%, respectively, for the sample consisting of iron catalysts and quartz at the same level of temperature. This result indicates a strong iron-sandstone synergy and a potential to stimulate H 2 production by leveraging this synergy. Throughout the experimental process, the generation of carbon oxides (CO and CO 2 ) is negligible. These findings pave a pathway towards future pilot for carbon-zero in-situ H 2 production from sandstone gas reservoirs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Economic Storage Size Optimization for Electric Vehicle Extreme-Fast Charging Stations

En-route charging infrastructure for electric vehicles is critical to support transportation needs. These charging stations are likely to have high loads and especially sharp peak loads given fast charging capabilities needed to meet transportation schedules. In order to reduce both strain on distribution grid infrastructure and charging station operational costs, many stations are likely to employ behind the meter storage. This paper demonstrates a behind the meter storage sizing optimization that employs an open-source agent-based vehicle behavior model (BEAM) to determine the best sizing across many scenarios. This optimization and analysis is novel in that it examines how storage size impacts not only charging station cost and peak load, but also vehicle queue times. The optimization is also applied across a wide analysis region with sufficient diversity and numbers to provide novel statistical analysis of optimal sizes.

Aka, Julius↗